Like I said at the bottom of last page, GA is where VA was in 2006. You have a huge population center that ends up finishing last and it's very democratic. One pretty much either needs to show signs they'll do well in that center or have a large enough lead to prevent that center from chucking them in the trash bin of history.
With est 77% reporting in, Warnock still ahead by 1.7% and Ossoff just ticked up from 0.9% to a 1.0% lead and both are over performing from the general.
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
With est 77% reporting in, Warnock still ahead by 1.7% and Ossoff just ticked up from 0.9% to a 1.0% lead and both are over performing from the general.
Are you watching the needle? Those are projected numbers. In terms of votes counted both Republicans are actually ahead, but unlikely to remain there.
With est 77% reporting in, Warnock still ahead by 1.7% and Ossoff just ticked up from 0.9% to a 1.0% lead and both are over performing from the general.
Are you watching the needle? Those are projected numbers. In terms of votes counted both Republicans are actually ahead, but unlikely to remain there.
According to the 538 liveblog, there's roughly 685k votes left in blue areas, and 350k votes left in red, so things are looking pretty good for Dems right now.
But the real winner is going to be Manchin, and oof. But assuming things hold, at least shit will get votes for the first time in a fucking decade.
With est 77% reporting in, Warnock still ahead by 1.7% and Ossoff just ticked up from 0.9% to a 1.0% lead and both are over performing from the general.
Are you watching the needle? Those are projected numbers. In terms of votes counted both Republicans are actually ahead, but unlikely to remain there.
If Ossoff also wins I want the entire Democratic leadership, touching their foreheads to the ground, in front of Stacey Abrams, on live TV.
Said it before but she should be given the DNC chairperson
Only if we can give her another run at Georgia governor too. With a pissed off Trump base, she would beat Kemp.
I saw some musing on the 538 blog that there's some data showing that Trump drove turnout of low propensity voters. When he's not on the ballot, things may very well revert to more like the 2018 results.
This post right here, by Geoffrey Skelley is a good indication of this not being a good night for republicans, from 538
Best I can tell, Perdue and Loeffler are running slightly behind Trump in margin. We’re up to 107 counties that have reported 95 percent or more of their expected vote, and if you total up the votes in those places, Trump won them by 25.7 points in November. But Perdue is only up 25.3 points in those places and Loeffler is up 24.8 points. Plenty of votes left to count, but that’s not what the GOP wants, especially as many of these are Republican-leaning places.
Pretty much, looks like early indications are off and the republicans are lagging behind Trump's numbers. This could be an indication that Trump did succeed in suppressing his party's turnout. We just need to see how all the blue strongholds look when they report in. That said though, if they are behind Trump in red country, they probably are doing worse in blue country than how they did in the general.
With est 77% reporting in, Warnock still ahead by 1.7% and Ossoff just ticked up from 0.9% to a 1.0% lead and both are over performing from the general.
Are you watching the needle? Those are projected numbers. In terms of votes counted both Republicans are actually ahead, but unlikely to remain there.
According to the 538 liveblog, there's roughly 685k votes left in blue areas, and 350k votes left in red, so things are looking pretty good for Dems right now.
But the real winner is going to be Manchin, and oof. But assuming things hold, at least shit will get votes for the first time in a fucking decade.
Unified Democratic control means we get to pass a full budget. Also, add technical corrections to things in must pass legislation like the NDAA. The SCOTUS case against the ACA gets mooted when they restore the mandate, even if it's just $1. &c. It's huge. We can't change black letter law for things like immigration reform without 10 Republicans, but the budget is so fucking much.
Also, fully staff the goddamn Government and Courts.
With est 77% reporting in, Warnock still ahead by 1.7% and Ossoff just ticked up from 0.9% to a 1.0% lead and both are over performing from the general.
Are you watching the needle? Those are projected numbers. In terms of votes counted both Republicans are actually ahead, but unlikely to remain there.
According to the 538 liveblog, there's roughly 685k votes left in blue areas, and 350k votes left in red, so things are looking pretty good for Dems right now.
But the real winner is going to be Manchin, and oof. But assuming things hold, at least shit will get votes for the first time in a fucking decade.
Unified Democratic control means we get to pass a full budget. Also, add technical corrections to things in must pass legislation like the NDAA. The SCOTUS case against the ACA gets mooted when they restore the mandate, even if it's just $1. &c. It's huge. We can't change black letter law for things like immigration reform without 10 Republicans, but the budget is so fucking much.
Also, fully staff the goddamn Government and Courts.
This post reads to me like we would still have the filibuster and I don’t like it
With est 77% reporting in, Warnock still ahead by 1.7% and Ossoff just ticked up from 0.9% to a 1.0% lead and both are over performing from the general.
Are you watching the needle? Those are projected numbers. In terms of votes counted both Republicans are actually ahead, but unlikely to remain there.
According to the 538 liveblog, there's roughly 685k votes left in blue areas, and 350k votes left in red, so things are looking pretty good for Dems right now.
But the real winner is going to be Manchin, and oof. But assuming things hold, at least shit will get votes for the first time in a fucking decade.
Unified Democratic control means we get to pass a full budget. Also, add technical corrections to things in must pass legislation like the NDAA. The SCOTUS case against the ACA gets mooted when they restore the mandate, even if it's just $1. &c. It's huge. We can't change black letter law for things like immigration reform without 10 Republicans, but the budget is so fucking much.
Also, fully staff the goddamn Government and Courts.
This post reads to me like we would still have the filibuster and I don’t like it
We would. Manchin and Feinstein won't vote to remove it.
With est 77% reporting in, Warnock still ahead by 1.7% and Ossoff just ticked up from 0.9% to a 1.0% lead and both are over performing from the general.
Are you watching the needle? Those are projected numbers. In terms of votes counted both Republicans are actually ahead, but unlikely to remain there.
According to the 538 liveblog, there's roughly 685k votes left in blue areas, and 350k votes left in red, so things are looking pretty good for Dems right now.
But the real winner is going to be Manchin, and oof. But assuming things hold, at least shit will get votes for the first time in a fucking decade.
Unified Democratic control means we get to pass a full budget. Also, add technical corrections to things in must pass legislation like the NDAA. The SCOTUS case against the ACA gets mooted when they restore the mandate, even if it's just $1. &c. It's huge. We can't change black letter law for things like immigration reform without 10 Republicans, but the budget is so fucking much.
Also, fully staff the goddamn Government and Courts.
This post reads to me like we would still have the filibuster and I don’t like it
We would. Manchin and Feinstein won't vote to remove it.
Decent chance Feinstein won't be a problem for long, but yeah Manchin sucks. a lot.
edit: oops not a mortality thing but given reports of cognitive decline she may be inclined to "retire"
DHS on
"Grip 'em up, grip 'em, grip 'em good, said the Gryphon... to the pig."
With est 77% reporting in, Warnock still ahead by 1.7% and Ossoff just ticked up from 0.9% to a 1.0% lead and both are over performing from the general.
Are you watching the needle? Those are projected numbers. In terms of votes counted both Republicans are actually ahead, but unlikely to remain there.
According to the 538 liveblog, there's roughly 685k votes left in blue areas, and 350k votes left in red, so things are looking pretty good for Dems right now.
But the real winner is going to be Manchin, and oof. But assuming things hold, at least shit will get votes for the first time in a fucking decade.
Unified Democratic control means we get to pass a full budget. Also, add technical corrections to things in must pass legislation like the NDAA. The SCOTUS case against the ACA gets mooted when they restore the mandate, even if it's just $1. &c. It's huge. We can't change black letter law for things like immigration reform without 10 Republicans, but the budget is so fucking much.
Also, fully staff the goddamn Government and Courts.
Also, NO MORE MAJORITY LEADER MITCH MCCONNELL.
Which, the amount of shoulder tension that will relieve across America cannot be overstated!
Not going to get too excited. But I fully expected a repeat of most “Dems have a chance but it’ll be an upset” nights where polls open and it’s just instantly clear they lost
With est 77% reporting in, Warnock still ahead by 1.7% and Ossoff just ticked up from 0.9% to a 1.0% lead and both are over performing from the general.
Are you watching the needle? Those are projected numbers. In terms of votes counted both Republicans are actually ahead, but unlikely to remain there.
According to the 538 liveblog, there's roughly 685k votes left in blue areas, and 350k votes left in red, so things are looking pretty good for Dems right now.
But the real winner is going to be Manchin, and oof. But assuming things hold, at least shit will get votes for the first time in a fucking decade.
Unified Democratic control means we get to pass a full budget. Also, add technical corrections to things in must pass legislation like the NDAA. The SCOTUS case against the ACA gets mooted when they restore the mandate, even if it's just $1. &c. It's huge. We can't change black letter law for things like immigration reform without 10 Republicans, but the budget is so fucking much.
Also, fully staff the goddamn Government and Courts.
This post reads to me like we would still have the filibuster and I don’t like it
We will.
However, so many things are budget authority under the Byrd Rule. Like, so much.
Want COVID Relief? Not, $2,000 checks. I'm taking $3trn in aid to State and Local governments plus the Post Office and worker protections as a string attached for PPP loans, COVID Relief. That's budgetary. Want a $trn in infrastructure investment to build a high speed rail network? That's budgetary authority. Want to double ACA subsidies? That's budgetary.
So fucking much.
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cj iwakuraThe Rhythm RegentBears The Name FreedomRegistered Userregular
Uh, what happens if it's 1/1? Does the senate go red by default?
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
Sadly, Manchin seems keen on keep that shitty thing around. We'll see how the cards land though if the democrats win both races tonight and the GOP inevitable grinds shit to a halt because they are petty, entitled little shits. I'm betting we see the filibuster eat some sort of nerf though because Manchin was getting pissed about some of the gridlock. If I had to guess, it might be something like a rule where the majority leader can hold a vote to suspend the filibuster on key legislation like budget bills. (edit: to clarify, I mean hold a vote that only requires a simple majority, rather than the two-thirds to suspect having the filibuster active during certain votes).
My hope is he doesn't get in the way of granting DC and PR statehood because that likely would negate much of his new found power. On the other hand, he might prefer a setup where the democrats have a 2 or 4 seat majority (I don't see the first set of senators for either prospective state being republican because of how badly the GOP has shat on both) because it let's him break ranks on legislation they might want, that his base doesn't care for. With a 50-50 split that doesn't really exist and he might not want the rap of being the democrat that fucks everything up.
I should say that Democrats would only get 2 of those Bills, and so they take a shitload of time to write since you are literally putting everything into it. So that's not, like, a January 21st thing. But it's huge. And forcing the filibuster votes on things Republicans don't want to have to answer for should also help force the issue for things like the $2k checks.
There’s a lot of legislation that has heavy public pressure to pass that the GOP doesn’t want. If brought to a vote, the GOP would piss off a lot of their own supporters if they didn’t pass it. McConnell protects them by just not bringing House bills for a vote and the legislation just dies.
Without McConnell to protect the GOP, they’ll lose that protection. It’s hardly a perfect solution with the filibuster, but it’s orders of magnetic better than McConnell remaining as leader.
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
Folks, it's over. We have enough returns to project that both Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff will win their Senate runoffs in Georgia, giving Democrats control of the US Senate.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
Posts
Dave Wasserman, editor of the Cook Political Report, calling it for Warnock. Seems early still.
Wait, what
Loefflerism?
This one isn’t surprising he already beat her by a few percent in November
He did it! He said the thing!
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Said it before but she should be given the DNC chairperson
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
Fill your belly with root beer or sparkly water!! The bubbles will make you too full to reach for the booze and you can still be happy sober!
motherfuckers better make like it's Minas Tirith and there are still three fades to black left.
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
Are you watching the needle? Those are projected numbers. In terms of votes counted both Republicans are actually ahead, but unlikely to remain there.
worked for the proud boys.
I have shame I don’t get this reference ::hands over nerd card::
According to the 538 liveblog, there's roughly 685k votes left in blue areas, and 350k votes left in red, so things are looking pretty good for Dems right now.
But the real winner is going to be Manchin, and oof. But assuming things hold, at least shit will get votes for the first time in a fucking decade.
Ossoff is projected to end 1% up?????
The needle wouldn’t betray us would it
Only if we can give her another run at Georgia governor too. With a pissed off Trump base, she would beat Kemp.
I saw some musing on the 538 blog that there's some data showing that Trump drove turnout of low propensity voters. When he's not on the ballot, things may very well revert to more like the 2018 results.
Pretty much, looks like early indications are off and the republicans are lagging behind Trump's numbers. This could be an indication that Trump did succeed in suppressing his party's turnout. We just need to see how all the blue strongholds look when they report in. That said though, if they are behind Trump in red country, they probably are doing worse in blue country than how they did in the general.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
the movie Return of the King is notorious for being nearly 4 hours long but have three fades to black before it actually ends
also Minas Tirith is the name of the city that is in. it's my go to for a reference of power supplicating to those who actually won it for them.
Unified Democratic control means we get to pass a full budget. Also, add technical corrections to things in must pass legislation like the NDAA. The SCOTUS case against the ACA gets mooted when they restore the mandate, even if it's just $1. &c. It's huge. We can't change black letter law for things like immigration reform without 10 Republicans, but the budget is so fucking much.
Also, fully staff the goddamn Government and Courts.
This post reads to me like we would still have the filibuster and I don’t like it
We would. Manchin and Feinstein won't vote to remove it.
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
Decent chance Feinstein won't be a problem for long, but yeah Manchin sucks. a lot.
edit: oops not a mortality thing but given reports of cognitive decline she may be inclined to "retire"
Also, NO MORE MAJORITY LEADER MITCH MCCONNELL.
Which, the amount of shoulder tension that will relieve across America cannot be overstated!
So this is nice
We will.
However, so many things are budget authority under the Byrd Rule. Like, so much.
Want COVID Relief? Not, $2,000 checks. I'm taking $3trn in aid to State and Local governments plus the Post Office and worker protections as a string attached for PPP loans, COVID Relief. That's budgetary. Want a $trn in infrastructure investment to build a high speed rail network? That's budgetary authority. Want to double ACA subsidies? That's budgetary.
So fucking much.
My hope is he doesn't get in the way of granting DC and PR statehood because that likely would negate much of his new found power. On the other hand, he might prefer a setup where the democrats have a 2 or 4 seat majority (I don't see the first set of senators for either prospective state being republican because of how badly the GOP has shat on both) because it let's him break ranks on legislation they might want, that his base doesn't care for. With a 50-50 split that doesn't really exist and he might not want the rap of being the democrat that fucks everything up.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Neither am I, but at least it's a possibility now.
For the love of God, Democrats, don't fuck this up.
They did the last time they had unified control.
There’s a lot of legislation that has heavy public pressure to pass that the GOP doesn’t want. If brought to a vote, the GOP would piss off a lot of their own supporters if they didn’t pass it. McConnell protects them by just not bringing House bills for a vote and the legislation just dies.
Without McConnell to protect the GOP, they’ll lose that protection. It’s hardly a perfect solution with the filibuster, but it’s orders of magnetic better than McConnell remaining as leader.
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
Reporter for the economist? THE DREAM IS REAL!?!
pleasepaypreacher.net