The General [Coronavirus] Discussion Thread: Vaccines!

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  • Dark_SideDark_Side Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    mcdermott wrote: »
    Sorry if this has been hashed to death, but I just have to pause a moment and gesture wildly toward North Dakota.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?no_nav=true&tid=a_classic-iphone

    Now at 176 cases per 100K daily. Death toll is spiking to match. It’s been weeks now since they were “only” at numbers like 40-50, the kind of numbers that had Californians talking about blocking off the roads to keep out Arizonans. And yet...they seem to have done literally nothing to bend the curve. Nothing. Montana seems to have started to bend it down slightly. But North Dakota is just trucking along.

    Are they just going for High Score at this point?

    I suspect that the rural nature means that the bodies are still largely out of sight, and will remain so for a while. Without a single major metro to generate that “oh shit” moment I’m not sure what is going to get North Dakota to wake the fuck up. I know part of this is just the general cold weather spike that is hitting most of the country. But North Dakota is already double the rate of most other states.

    I haven't dug down into the numbers in NoDak, but it's just like anywhere else where most of the people live in populated areas. The populated areas are just smaller and the empty spaces between them are much longer. About half the population lives in a half-dozen population centers. I could be wrong, but I suspect the virus is spreading through Fargo and Bismarck and Grand Forks more than it is hopping through the farmlands. I assume the Bakken mancamps are an absolute cesspit, but then the viruses already spreading through those things might have been too strong for an upstart to horn in on their turf.

    You pretty much have it. It's basically spiking in 4 counties, all of them having a metro area, local colleges, and a military base -Minot, Fargo, Grand Forks, and Bismarck. South Dakota is similar, with it spiking in Rapid City and Sioux Falls, which have the same basic criteria listed above. But it's bad enough in both states that's it's cropping up in small towns all over already, and to make things even worse, guess what all the people in the cities in those states do for the holidays? Travel out to the family farm to see mom and dad. And while there visit grandma in the local hospice. And go to religious and other holiday gatherings in the local small town. If it gets bad enough this virus could legit take out a local population and wipe some of these towns off of the map. But the state governments are ride or die on "if we ignore it, it will totally go away."

    Dark_Side on
  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    Dark_Side wrote: »
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    mcdermott wrote: »
    Sorry if this has been hashed to death, but I just have to pause a moment and gesture wildly toward North Dakota.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?no_nav=true&tid=a_classic-iphone

    Now at 176 cases per 100K daily. Death toll is spiking to match. It’s been weeks now since they were “only” at numbers like 40-50, the kind of numbers that had Californians talking about blocking off the roads to keep out Arizonans. And yet...they seem to have done literally nothing to bend the curve. Nothing. Montana seems to have started to bend it down slightly. But North Dakota is just trucking along.

    Are they just going for High Score at this point?

    I suspect that the rural nature means that the bodies are still largely out of sight, and will remain so for a while. Without a single major metro to generate that “oh shit” moment I’m not sure what is going to get North Dakota to wake the fuck up. I know part of this is just the general cold weather spike that is hitting most of the country. But North Dakota is already double the rate of most other states.

    I haven't dug down into the numbers in NoDak, but it's just like anywhere else where most of the people live in populated areas. The populated areas are just smaller and the empty spaces between them are much longer. About half the population lives in a half-dozen population centers. I could be wrong, but I suspect the virus is spreading through Fargo and Bismarck and Grand Forks more than it is hopping through the farmlands. I assume the Bakken mancamps are an absolute cesspit, but then the viruses already spreading through those things might have been too strong for an upstart to horn in on their turf.

    You pretty much have it. It's basically spiking in 4 counties, all of them having a metro area, local colleges, and a military base -Minot, Fargo, Grand Forks, and Bismarck. South Dakota is similar, with it spiking in Rapid City and Sioux Falls, which have the same basic criteria listed above. But it's bad enough in both states that's it's cropping up in small towns all over already, and to make things even worse, guess what all the people in the cities in those states do for the holidays? Travel out to the family farm to see mom and dad. And while there visit grandma in the local hospice. And go to religious and other holiday gatherings in the local small town. If it gets bad enough this virus could legit take out a local population and wipe some of these towns off of the map. But the state governments are ride or die on "if we ignore it, it will totally go away."

    It keeps coming back to the holidays. It's an incredibly avoidable oncoming train, but we choose to stay on the tracks.

    SleepEinzel
  • WinkyWinky rRegistered User regular
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    Dark_Side wrote: »
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    mcdermott wrote: »
    Sorry if this has been hashed to death, but I just have to pause a moment and gesture wildly toward North Dakota.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?no_nav=true&tid=a_classic-iphone

    Now at 176 cases per 100K daily. Death toll is spiking to match. It’s been weeks now since they were “only” at numbers like 40-50, the kind of numbers that had Californians talking about blocking off the roads to keep out Arizonans. And yet...they seem to have done literally nothing to bend the curve. Nothing. Montana seems to have started to bend it down slightly. But North Dakota is just trucking along.

    Are they just going for High Score at this point?

    I suspect that the rural nature means that the bodies are still largely out of sight, and will remain so for a while. Without a single major metro to generate that “oh shit” moment I’m not sure what is going to get North Dakota to wake the fuck up. I know part of this is just the general cold weather spike that is hitting most of the country. But North Dakota is already double the rate of most other states.

    I haven't dug down into the numbers in NoDak, but it's just like anywhere else where most of the people live in populated areas. The populated areas are just smaller and the empty spaces between them are much longer. About half the population lives in a half-dozen population centers. I could be wrong, but I suspect the virus is spreading through Fargo and Bismarck and Grand Forks more than it is hopping through the farmlands. I assume the Bakken mancamps are an absolute cesspit, but then the viruses already spreading through those things might have been too strong for an upstart to horn in on their turf.

    You pretty much have it. It's basically spiking in 4 counties, all of them having a metro area, local colleges, and a military base -Minot, Fargo, Grand Forks, and Bismarck. South Dakota is similar, with it spiking in Rapid City and Sioux Falls, which have the same basic criteria listed above. But it's bad enough in both states that's it's cropping up in small towns all over already, and to make things even worse, guess what all the people in the cities in those states do for the holidays? Travel out to the family farm to see mom and dad. And while there visit grandma in the local hospice. And go to religious and other holiday gatherings in the local small town. If it gets bad enough this virus could legit take out a local population and wipe some of these towns off of the map. But the state governments are ride or die on "if we ignore it, it will totally go away."

    It keeps coming back to the holidays. It's an incredibly avoidable oncoming train, but we choose to stay on the tracks.

    There's an out-of-control trolley speeding down the tracks, if you pull the lever 230,000 people die but you get to have dinner with your family at an indoor chain restaurant, what do you do?

    Commander Zoomdispatch.okimeAistanEinzeltynicFuzzy Cumulonimbus CloudLucedesDark_SideElvenshaeFoolOnTheHillzagdrobElldrenA Kobold's Kobold
  • mcdermottmcdermott Registered User regular
    Winky wrote: »
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    Dark_Side wrote: »
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    mcdermott wrote: »
    Sorry if this has been hashed to death, but I just have to pause a moment and gesture wildly toward North Dakota.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?no_nav=true&tid=a_classic-iphone

    Now at 176 cases per 100K daily. Death toll is spiking to match. It’s been weeks now since they were “only” at numbers like 40-50, the kind of numbers that had Californians talking about blocking off the roads to keep out Arizonans. And yet...they seem to have done literally nothing to bend the curve. Nothing. Montana seems to have started to bend it down slightly. But North Dakota is just trucking along.

    Are they just going for High Score at this point?

    I suspect that the rural nature means that the bodies are still largely out of sight, and will remain so for a while. Without a single major metro to generate that “oh shit” moment I’m not sure what is going to get North Dakota to wake the fuck up. I know part of this is just the general cold weather spike that is hitting most of the country. But North Dakota is already double the rate of most other states.

    I haven't dug down into the numbers in NoDak, but it's just like anywhere else where most of the people live in populated areas. The populated areas are just smaller and the empty spaces between them are much longer. About half the population lives in a half-dozen population centers. I could be wrong, but I suspect the virus is spreading through Fargo and Bismarck and Grand Forks more than it is hopping through the farmlands. I assume the Bakken mancamps are an absolute cesspit, but then the viruses already spreading through those things might have been too strong for an upstart to horn in on their turf.

    You pretty much have it. It's basically spiking in 4 counties, all of them having a metro area, local colleges, and a military base -Minot, Fargo, Grand Forks, and Bismarck. South Dakota is similar, with it spiking in Rapid City and Sioux Falls, which have the same basic criteria listed above. But it's bad enough in both states that's it's cropping up in small towns all over already, and to make things even worse, guess what all the people in the cities in those states do for the holidays? Travel out to the family farm to see mom and dad. And while there visit grandma in the local hospice. And go to religious and other holiday gatherings in the local small town. If it gets bad enough this virus could legit take out a local population and wipe some of these towns off of the map. But the state governments are ride or die on "if we ignore it, it will totally go away."

    It keeps coming back to the holidays. It's an incredibly avoidable oncoming train, but we choose to stay on the tracks.

    There's an out-of-control trolley speeding down the tracks, if you pull the lever 230,000 people die but you get to have dinner with your family at an indoor chain restaurant, what do you do?

    Applebee’s or Olive Garden? Need to know before I decide.

    dispatch.okimelunchbox12682ZonugalJebus314CelestialBadgerAbsoluteZerozagdrobDavid Walgasstopgaphanzo
  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    Winky wrote: »
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    Dark_Side wrote: »
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    mcdermott wrote: »
    Sorry if this has been hashed to death, but I just have to pause a moment and gesture wildly toward North Dakota.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?no_nav=true&tid=a_classic-iphone

    Now at 176 cases per 100K daily. Death toll is spiking to match. It’s been weeks now since they were “only” at numbers like 40-50, the kind of numbers that had Californians talking about blocking off the roads to keep out Arizonans. And yet...they seem to have done literally nothing to bend the curve. Nothing. Montana seems to have started to bend it down slightly. But North Dakota is just trucking along.

    Are they just going for High Score at this point?

    I suspect that the rural nature means that the bodies are still largely out of sight, and will remain so for a while. Without a single major metro to generate that “oh shit” moment I’m not sure what is going to get North Dakota to wake the fuck up. I know part of this is just the general cold weather spike that is hitting most of the country. But North Dakota is already double the rate of most other states.

    I haven't dug down into the numbers in NoDak, but it's just like anywhere else where most of the people live in populated areas. The populated areas are just smaller and the empty spaces between them are much longer. About half the population lives in a half-dozen population centers. I could be wrong, but I suspect the virus is spreading through Fargo and Bismarck and Grand Forks more than it is hopping through the farmlands. I assume the Bakken mancamps are an absolute cesspit, but then the viruses already spreading through those things might have been too strong for an upstart to horn in on their turf.

    You pretty much have it. It's basically spiking in 4 counties, all of them having a metro area, local colleges, and a military base -Minot, Fargo, Grand Forks, and Bismarck. South Dakota is similar, with it spiking in Rapid City and Sioux Falls, which have the same basic criteria listed above. But it's bad enough in both states that's it's cropping up in small towns all over already, and to make things even worse, guess what all the people in the cities in those states do for the holidays? Travel out to the family farm to see mom and dad. And while there visit grandma in the local hospice. And go to religious and other holiday gatherings in the local small town. If it gets bad enough this virus could legit take out a local population and wipe some of these towns off of the map. But the state governments are ride or die on "if we ignore it, it will totally go away."

    It keeps coming back to the holidays. It's an incredibly avoidable oncoming train, but we choose to stay on the tracks.

    There's an out-of-control trolley speeding down the tracks, if you pull the lever 230,000 people die but you get to have dinner with your family at an indoor chain restaurant, what do you do?

    Oh, it's easy. You dangle a sharp blade out the window to slice the neck of the waiter on the other track, as we smoosh our two hundred thirty thousand main guys.

    Oh. I did the thing again, didn't I?

    *flips chalkboard over, revealing lines like ones a student in detention writes*

    People good. People... why is that so hard to remember? People... what is it?

    People good.
    The Good Place remains one of the best shows ever created.

    kimeRhesus PositiveForarCaptain Inertia
  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane The Djinnerator At the bottom of a bottleRegistered User regular
    The website Covid Exit Strategy is a COVID tracking aggregator for the United States - Which shows how each state is trending via color coding.

    zZmjqoa.png

    So pretty much uncontrolled throughout the entire continental US.

    VuIBhrs.png
    Commander ZoomtynicIncenjucarJragghenElvenshaeShadowfireGiantGeek2020AbsoluteZeropainfulPleasanceBullheadzagdrobCalicaElldrenA Kobold's Kobold
  • EinzelEinzel Registered User regular
    The website Covid Exit Strategy is a COVID tracking aggregator for the United States - Which shows how each state is trending via color coding.

    zZmjqoa.png

    So pretty much uncontrolled throughout the entire continental US.

    We're almost there. Almost mission accomplished time.

    Captain InertiaElvenshaeDavid Walgas
  • StarZapperStarZapper Vermont, Bizzaro world.Registered User regular
    Einzel wrote: »
    The website Covid Exit Strategy is a COVID tracking aggregator for the United States - Which shows how each state is trending via color coding.

    zZmjqoa.png

    So pretty much uncontrolled throughout the entire continental US.

    We're almost there. Almost mission accomplished time.

    They were right, we were turning the corner. It was just the wrong corner, that's all. Shit, my state is the last bit of non red left, and we're getting there soon.

  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    https://sf.eater.com/2020/11/10/21558821/san-francisco-indoor-dining-shutdown-ban-coronavirus

    I can also present to you this data point.

    San Francisco has solid testing, and has been deploying a wide scale response throughout the pandemic. Our local positivity rate remains under 1.5% and >85% of people are being contact traced. So, the effect I'm about to detail is not being confounded in any way by either massive changes in testing strategy etc.

    We recently allowed the re-opening of indoor dining, 4 weeks ago at 25% capacity. Some other indoor services reopened, and a very small number of private schools. San Francisco did NOT however, re-open its public school system, so, we are effectively running a pretty decent case study here of 'What happens with indoor dining when case loads are pretty decent, but no advanced systems are in place, such as tracking apps or QR codes, or mass testing"

    On September 30th we reopened indoor dining
    By October 7th our number of cases stopped falling and our positivity rate plateaued at 0.8%
    By October 21st our number of cases started rising
    By November 10th our number of cases had doubled

    Eating inside in restaurants is a disaster. Do not do it.

    Thankfully we are closing it down again from Friday, alongside some other reimplemented restrictions. It is absurdly frustrating to have so much of the hard work which has been done by so many members of the community be so swiftly reversed by a few people who couldn't just put on a damn coat and eat outside. We had outside dining for months while maintaining a fall in case numbers.

    Edit - It's also annoying to have emailed pretty much everyone in the damn city and the state on the 14th of last month to say, "You can see that we aren't ready for indoor dining, shut it down again. You know you're going to have to do it in like 3 weeks time, just do it now!" and have seen such a slow, glacial response from a city government which really did seem to be working hard. At least we didn't open to 50% capacity on the 3rd like we were supposed to!

    tbloxham on
    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
    JaysonFourkimeGnome-InterruptusDark_SideElvenshaeAphostileElldren
  • CorvusCorvus . VancouverRegistered User regular
    So, just to keep things in perspective a little bit, and not aimed at anyone in particular, I see people throwing the total deaths in the USA around quite a bit, as if none of them would have happened with different governance in the US.

    You'd still have 93,000 dead Americans if you had the same deaths per million population rate as us in Canada. Which would be a hell of a lot better, but not zero.

    :so_raven:
    StarZapperElvenshaeDaenris
  • mcdermottmcdermott Registered User regular
    Corvus wrote: »
    So, just to keep things in perspective a little bit, and not aimed at anyone in particular, I see people throwing the total deaths in the USA around quite a bit, as if none of them would have happened with different governance in the US.

    You'd still have 93,000 dead Americans if you had the same deaths per million population rate as us in Canada. Which would be a hell of a lot better, but not zero.

    Yeah, it’s tough rhetorically. Because once you start with “if you assume the same rate as Canada” you lose half the audience. So you’ll generally just hear “Trump killed 245,000 people.” Because the difference between that and “If you do the math and consider comparable blah blah blah 150,000 people” is not meaningful. So you sell the easier statement.

    But yes, I only blame him for killing Billings. Not Boise.

    kimeMosati
  • BurnageBurnage Registered User regular
    Corvus wrote: »
    So, just to keep things in perspective a little bit, and not aimed at anyone in particular, I see people throwing the total deaths in the USA around quite a bit, as if none of them would have happened with different governance in the US.

    You'd still have 93,000 dead Americans if you had the same deaths per million population rate as us in Canada. Which would be a hell of a lot better, but not zero.

    I don't think the assumption that Canada's figures are just America's without the Trump mulitiplier is sufficient for this counterfactual. Trump has actively hampered the international response to COVID-19, both by providing a tremendous signal boost to skeptics and directly impeding American involvement in global health organisations. This is also ignoring that Canada shares a land border with a large nation which is currently letting the virus spread out of control.

    I'd wager that in a Trumpless 2020 most other countries would have seen a lower death count from COVID. America's, similarly, could have been substantially lower than their nearest neighbour's current figures.

    JaysonFourPhoenix-DtynickimeSleepElvenshaeGiantGeek2020FoolOnTheHillAistanKetBraCptKemzikjmcdonaldElldrenA Kobold's Kobold
  • ShivahnShivahn Unaware of her barrel shifter privilege Western coastal temptressRegistered User regular
    Burnage wrote: »
    Corvus wrote: »
    So, just to keep things in perspective a little bit, and not aimed at anyone in particular, I see people throwing the total deaths in the USA around quite a bit, as if none of them would have happened with different governance in the US.

    You'd still have 93,000 dead Americans if you had the same deaths per million population rate as us in Canada. Which would be a hell of a lot better, but not zero.

    I don't think the assumption that Canada's figures are just America's without the Trump mulitiplier is sufficient for this counterfactual. Trump has actively hampered the international response to COVID-19, both by providing a tremendous signal boost to skeptics and directly impeding American involvement in global health organisations. This is also ignoring that Canada shares a land border with a large nation which is currently letting the virus spread out of control.

    I'd wager that in a Trumpless 2020 most other countries would have seen a lower death count from COVID. America's, similarly, could have been substantially lower than their nearest neighbour's current figures.

    This is definitely true, and I'm sure Americans have kicked off a share of outbreaks here, but it is true that the land border is mostly closed. I'm pretty sure most spread here is community, rather than diseased Americans ruining the great north.

    (again, there are definitely irresponsible Americans lying and cheating their way through the border, and Trump makes this a lot worse for all the reasons you listed, but I think Canadians are the primary threat to Canadians in terms of actual outbreaks).

    mrondeauCaedwyr
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Burnage wrote: »
    Corvus wrote: »
    So, just to keep things in perspective a little bit, and not aimed at anyone in particular, I see people throwing the total deaths in the USA around quite a bit, as if none of them would have happened with different governance in the US.

    You'd still have 93,000 dead Americans if you had the same deaths per million population rate as us in Canada. Which would be a hell of a lot better, but not zero.

    I don't think the assumption that Canada's figures are just America's without the Trump mulitiplier is sufficient for this counterfactual. Trump has actively hampered the international response to COVID-19, both by providing a tremendous signal boost to skeptics and directly impeding American involvement in global health organisations. This is also ignoring that Canada shares a land border with a large nation which is currently letting the virus spread out of control.

    I'd wager that in a Trumpless 2020 most other countries would have seen a lower death count from COVID. America's, similarly, could have been substantially lower than their nearest neighbour's current figures.

    Indeed, Trump isn't to blame for US deaths alone. I'd argue that Trump is POSSIBLY to blame for about 75% of the entire Pandemic worldwide. China probably bears about 25% of the blame at this point due to their mismanagement early on when they could have stopped it (if they had listened to the early whistleblowers, it would never have spread) but Trump's terrible response lulled others into a false sense of security.

    In a well managed world you would have been looking at worldwide travel lockdowns starting in late February. Not half assed ones, but, "All flights are grounded other than for relief efforts". You'd have seen testing ramped and deployed by an international task force, going region by region, country by country achieving local elimination and then moving on with resources.

    Edit - To be clear, I guess I give China about a 50% chance of stopping it if they had tried properly immediately, and the rest of the world a 50% chance of stopping it and a 90% chance of slowing its progress to a crawl, and if we remain a LITTLE bit fortunate and the vaccine keeps showing all the right data, means we could have actually got the vaccine deployed into phase 3 volunteers BEFORE we even had many cases in most countries. We'd have been looking at major spread in a few nations, with all other nations helping to control it, and vaccines being trialed there.

    Edit 2 - Without Trump, noone would even have come up with the idea that masks are some inconceivable threat to civil liberties! We'd all be happily wearing them.

    tbloxham on
    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • StarZapperStarZapper Vermont, Bizzaro world.Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Shivahn wrote: »
    Burnage wrote: »
    Corvus wrote: »
    So, just to keep things in perspective a little bit, and not aimed at anyone in particular, I see people throwing the total deaths in the USA around quite a bit, as if none of them would have happened with different governance in the US.

    You'd still have 93,000 dead Americans if you had the same deaths per million population rate as us in Canada. Which would be a hell of a lot better, but not zero.

    I don't think the assumption that Canada's figures are just America's without the Trump mulitiplier is sufficient for this counterfactual. Trump has actively hampered the international response to COVID-19, both by providing a tremendous signal boost to skeptics and directly impeding American involvement in global health organisations. This is also ignoring that Canada shares a land border with a large nation which is currently letting the virus spread out of control.

    I'd wager that in a Trumpless 2020 most other countries would have seen a lower death count from COVID. America's, similarly, could have been substantially lower than their nearest neighbour's current figures.

    This is definitely true, and I'm sure Americans have kicked off a share of outbreaks here, but it is true that the land border is mostly closed. I'm pretty sure most spread here is community, rather than diseased Americans ruining the great north.

    (again, there are definitely irresponsible Americans lying and cheating their way through the border, and Trump makes this a lot worse for all the reasons you listed, but I think Canadians are the primary threat to Canadians in terms of actual outbreaks).

    There are also thousands of trucks that deliver across the border every day, and likely tens of thousands of dual citizens who cross frequently as well. The border may be closed to nonessential travel, but that's a hole big enough to drive, well, a truck through. It would probably me more comparable to look at Germany's spread rate than say Canada. As a similarly large country with large borders and very independent states/provinces.

    StarZapper on
    tynicGnome-InterruptusSkeith
  • ShivahnShivahn Unaware of her barrel shifter privilege Western coastal temptressRegistered User regular
    StarZapper wrote: »
    Shivahn wrote: »
    Burnage wrote: »
    Corvus wrote: »
    So, just to keep things in perspective a little bit, and not aimed at anyone in particular, I see people throwing the total deaths in the USA around quite a bit, as if none of them would have happened with different governance in the US.

    You'd still have 93,000 dead Americans if you had the same deaths per million population rate as us in Canada. Which would be a hell of a lot better, but not zero.

    I don't think the assumption that Canada's figures are just America's without the Trump mulitiplier is sufficient for this counterfactual. Trump has actively hampered the international response to COVID-19, both by providing a tremendous signal boost to skeptics and directly impeding American involvement in global health organisations. This is also ignoring that Canada shares a land border with a large nation which is currently letting the virus spread out of control.

    I'd wager that in a Trumpless 2020 most other countries would have seen a lower death count from COVID. America's, similarly, could have been substantially lower than their nearest neighbour's current figures.

    This is definitely true, and I'm sure Americans have kicked off a share of outbreaks here, but it is true that the land border is mostly closed. I'm pretty sure most spread here is community, rather than diseased Americans ruining the great north.

    (again, there are definitely irresponsible Americans lying and cheating their way through the border, and Trump makes this a lot worse for all the reasons you listed, but I think Canadians are the primary threat to Canadians in terms of actual outbreaks).

    There are also thousands of trucks that deliver across the border every day, and likely tens of thousands of dual citizens who cross frequently as well. The border may be closed to nonessential travel, but that's a hole big enough to drive, well, a truck through.

    That's true, I always forget the trucks.

    Are dual citizens and such crossing frequently? You have to be willfully ignoring quarantine periods for that. I mean, I know people will still do it, but I have no idea how many.

    (I'm probably reading my situation too much into what people as a whole are doing, though. I could cross in both directions, and I'm being responsible by not, surely everyone is equally good as I'm being...)

  • CorvusCorvus . VancouverRegistered User regular
    Burnage wrote: »
    Corvus wrote: »
    So, just to keep things in perspective a little bit, and not aimed at anyone in particular, I see people throwing the total deaths in the USA around quite a bit, as if none of them would have happened with different governance in the US.

    You'd still have 93,000 dead Americans if you had the same deaths per million population rate as us in Canada. Which would be a hell of a lot better, but not zero.

    I don't think the assumption that Canada's figures are just America's without the Trump mulitiplier is sufficient for this counterfactual. Trump has actively hampered the international response to COVID-19, both by providing a tremendous signal boost to skeptics and directly impeding American involvement in global health organisations. This is also ignoring that Canada shares a land border with a large nation which is currently letting the virus spread out of control.

    I'd wager that in a Trumpless 2020 most other countries would have seen a lower death count from COVID. America's, similarly, could have been substantially lower than their nearest neighbour's current figures.

    Oh, no doubt. There are all kinds of additional factors like you said from the active harm Trump had caused. There's also the fact we have public health care here which may play a role in ability to respond to pandemics, though the problems in many Euro countries show it's not a panacea by any means.

    We haven't even done that great a job here in Canada, so our deaths/million is perhaps a reasonable comparison compared to say, Australia or New Zealand.

    :so_raven:
    mrondeau
  • CorvusCorvus . VancouverRegistered User regular
    Shivahn wrote: »
    StarZapper wrote: »
    Shivahn wrote: »
    Burnage wrote: »
    Corvus wrote: »
    So, just to keep things in perspective a little bit, and not aimed at anyone in particular, I see people throwing the total deaths in the USA around quite a bit, as if none of them would have happened with different governance in the US.

    You'd still have 93,000 dead Americans if you had the same deaths per million population rate as us in Canada. Which would be a hell of a lot better, but not zero.

    I don't think the assumption that Canada's figures are just America's without the Trump mulitiplier is sufficient for this counterfactual. Trump has actively hampered the international response to COVID-19, both by providing a tremendous signal boost to skeptics and directly impeding American involvement in global health organisations. This is also ignoring that Canada shares a land border with a large nation which is currently letting the virus spread out of control.

    I'd wager that in a Trumpless 2020 most other countries would have seen a lower death count from COVID. America's, similarly, could have been substantially lower than their nearest neighbour's current figures.

    This is definitely true, and I'm sure Americans have kicked off a share of outbreaks here, but it is true that the land border is mostly closed. I'm pretty sure most spread here is community, rather than diseased Americans ruining the great north.

    (again, there are definitely irresponsible Americans lying and cheating their way through the border, and Trump makes this a lot worse for all the reasons you listed, but I think Canadians are the primary threat to Canadians in terms of actual outbreaks).

    There are also thousands of trucks that deliver across the border every day, and likely tens of thousands of dual citizens who cross frequently as well. The border may be closed to nonessential travel, but that's a hole big enough to drive, well, a truck through.

    That's true, I always forget the trucks.

    Are dual citizens and such crossing frequently? You have to be willfully ignoring quarantine periods for that. I mean, I know people will still do it, but I have no idea how many.

    (I'm probably reading my situation too much into what people as a whole are doing, though. I could cross in both directions, and I'm being responsible by not, surely everyone is equally good as I'm being...)

    CBSA releases figures on border crossings on a regular basis I think, though I have not looked at them for the pandemic.

    :so_raven:
  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    Shivahn wrote: »
    Burnage wrote: »
    Corvus wrote: »
    So, just to keep things in perspective a little bit, and not aimed at anyone in particular, I see people throwing the total deaths in the USA around quite a bit, as if none of them would have happened with different governance in the US.

    You'd still have 93,000 dead Americans if you had the same deaths per million population rate as us in Canada. Which would be a hell of a lot better, but not zero.

    I don't think the assumption that Canada's figures are just America's without the Trump mulitiplier is sufficient for this counterfactual. Trump has actively hampered the international response to COVID-19, both by providing a tremendous signal boost to skeptics and directly impeding American involvement in global health organisations. This is also ignoring that Canada shares a land border with a large nation which is currently letting the virus spread out of control.

    I'd wager that in a Trumpless 2020 most other countries would have seen a lower death count from COVID. America's, similarly, could have been substantially lower than their nearest neighbour's current figures.

    This is definitely true, and I'm sure Americans have kicked off a share of outbreaks here, but it is true that the land border is mostly closed. I'm pretty sure most spread here is community, rather than diseased Americans ruining the great north.

    (again, there are definitely irresponsible Americans lying and cheating their way through the border, and Trump makes this a lot worse for all the reasons you listed, but I think Canadians are the primary threat to Canadians in terms of actual outbreaks).

    Right, but the idea is that a lot of international organizations looked to the CDC for leadership, and Trump didn't allow them to do their jobs. And was in fact actively unhelpful in that regard. He shut down pandemic monitoring operations- there's a non-zero chance we could have caught this thing early and killed it off.

  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    Didn't a study say trump alone was worth 38% of the total global misinformation about the coronavirus?

    And he certainly mainstreamed it beyond just conspiracy level stuff as well.

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  • quovadis13quovadis13 Registered User regular
    Canada's response hasnt been that great, but we have always had the "At least we aren't America" mentality. Part of the reason might be because even when we were "locked down", things in Canada, or at least Ontario, weren't really all that locked down. You couldn't eat at a restaurant, but otherwise, things were pretty normal for the most part. There was a bit of time where you were really limited on being in stores, but even that wasnt that big of a deal. For the most part, Canadians took masking and definitely social distancing fairly serious. That's changed over the last few months and I think the biggest driver of Covid cases is spread amongst close contacts with known cases.

    However, with the recent rising cases, action by the provincial governments has been lackluster and not nearly enough. With what we know now, I think you can make the argument that we dont need widescale intervention, but more targeted and effective intervention which we still arent even getting. We know alot more about how to deal with things now than we did in March, but we are still not really doing the things that should help which is frustrating.

    Corvus
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    quovadis13 wrote: »
    Canada's response hasnt been that great, but we have always had the "At least we aren't America" mentality. Part of the reason might be because even when we were "locked down", things in Canada, or at least Ontario, weren't really all that locked down. You couldn't eat at a restaurant, but otherwise, things were pretty normal for the most part. There was a bit of time where you were really limited on being in stores, but even that wasnt that big of a deal. For the most part, Canadians took masking and definitely social distancing fairly serious. That's changed over the last few months and I think the biggest driver of Covid cases is spread amongst close contacts with known cases.

    However, with the recent rising cases, action by the provincial governments has been lackluster and not nearly enough. With what we know now, I think you can make the argument that we dont need widescale intervention, but more targeted and effective intervention which we still arent even getting. We know alot more about how to deal with things now than we did in March, but we are still not really doing the things that should help which is frustrating.

    I think the biggest issue is that you have to act BEFORE cases start rising. You need to change your behavior when you see cases go back to flat. Flat is risky, flat can be a disaster in 3 weeks. You need the numbers to be always falling. That doesn't mean lock everyone inside, here where I live we had falling numbers for 3 months and I could still order a Pizza, go for a walk, and lots of people doing essential science stuff were in offices, until we reopened too much, then we had flat for a month, and now we are anything but. Kids went to summer camps, people hung out in each others driveways. Down and down and down cases went. And then we reopened indoor dining....

    Flat is bad. Flat means you are losing.

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  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    https://www.grandforksherald.com/newsmd/coronavirus/6753876-With-North-Dakota-hospitals-at-100-capacity-Burgum-announces-COVID-positive-nurses-can-stay-at-work
    With North Dakota hospitals at 100% capacity, Burgum announces COVID-positive nurses can stay at work

    In an attempt to alleviate some of the staffing concerns, Burgum announced that the state health officer has amended an order that will allow health care workers with asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 to continue working in hospitals' COVID-19 units. The Republican governor said hospital administrators asked the state to take the extraordinary step.
    In an attempt to alleviate some of the staffing concerns, Burgum announced that interim State Health Officer Dirk Wilke has amended an order that will allow health care workers with asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 to continue working in COVID-19 units at hospitals and nursing homes.

    The move aligns with "crisis" guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Since only patients with COVID-19 could receive care from doctors and nurses with the virus, Burgum said he believes there will be little risk of more spread. He added that health care workers in COVID-19 units already wear protective gear to prevent them from contracting the virus.

    The Republican governor said health care providers asked the state to take the extraordinary step, adding that "apparently some (providers) had the ability to do this in other states."
    This seems like a bad idea

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  • LucedesLucedes keeps happening for some reason Registered User regular
    So, my workplace is actually COVID safe, because we follow protocols and distancing here, and have a lot of space.

    Half my team is out because of contact with presumed or confirmed positives outside of work. Three or four separate chains of contact. Fuck this. I am now monarch of a desolate understaffed wasteland.

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  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    edited November 2020


    Jesus Fuck.

    Tweet is from a Marshall Project reporter, formerly Houston Chronicle and NY Daily News
    At one Texas prison nearly 6% OF THE POPULATION has died of COVID-19.

    Not 6% of the covid patients died, but 6% of the entire prison population.

    That's according to a fabulous new report out today. Here's a thread w/some other
    🤯
    data: https://t.co/zVHBQz9Bs1?amp=1

    Every person working at that prison should be charged with murder because there's no way to hit those numbers on accident.

    e: Unless this prison is so small 6% is like two or three people or something like that, which the tweet chain doesn't specify.

    e2: See comments below for context, apparently it's a minimum security prison for old people

    Jragghen on
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  • StarZapperStarZapper Vermont, Bizzaro world.Registered User regular
    Jragghen wrote: »


    Jesus Fuck.

    Tweet is from a Marshall Project reporter, formerly Houston Chronicle and NY Daily News
    At one Texas prison nearly 6% OF THE POPULATION has died of COVID-19.

    Not 6% of the covid patients died, but 6% of the entire prison population.

    That's according to a fabulous new report out today. Here's a thread w/some other
    🤯
    data: https://t.co/zVHBQz9Bs1?amp=1

    Every person working at that prison should be charged with murder because there's no way to hit those numbers on accident.

    e: Unless this prison is so small 6% is like two or three people or something like that, which the tweet chain doesn't specify.

    Hmmm yeah that seems bad. Maybe it's population skews really old? That said, prisons as a whole have been terribly undercounted, and undertested throughout this whole pandemic. I wouldn't be surprised at this point if many prisons had reached "herd immunity" levels already, because they've pretty much let it rip through them unchecked. Not to mention medical care at prisons is notoriously awful; many jails will virtually let you die before getting you care. A prison sentence is practically a death sentence at this point.

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  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    That's probably the "Rufus H. Duncan Geriatric Facility" so lots of old people

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  • StarZapperStarZapper Vermont, Bizzaro world.Registered User regular
    Phyphor wrote: »
    That's probably the "Rufus H. Duncan Geriatric Facility" so lots of old people

    Shit I was just taking a guess and thought you were joking... but after googling it, nope it actually is. That makes sense then.

  • cckerberoscckerberos Registered User regular
    StarZapper wrote: »
    Jragghen wrote: »


    Jesus Fuck.

    Tweet is from a Marshall Project reporter, formerly Houston Chronicle and NY Daily News
    At one Texas prison nearly 6% OF THE POPULATION has died of COVID-19.

    Not 6% of the covid patients died, but 6% of the entire prison population.

    That's according to a fabulous new report out today. Here's a thread w/some other
    🤯
    data: https://t.co/zVHBQz9Bs1?amp=1

    Every person working at that prison should be charged with murder because there's no way to hit those numbers on accident.

    e: Unless this prison is so small 6% is like two or three people or something like that, which the tweet chain doesn't specify.

    Hmmm yeah that seems bad. Maybe it's population skews really old?

    Bingo. It's a minimum security geriatric prison with about 400 inmates. So it's kind of like covid hitting a really big nursing home.

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  • Dark_SideDark_Side Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote: »
    https://www.grandforksherald.com/newsmd/coronavirus/6753876-With-North-Dakota-hospitals-at-100-capacity-Burgum-announces-COVID-positive-nurses-can-stay-at-work
    With North Dakota hospitals at 100% capacity, Burgum announces COVID-positive nurses can stay at work

    In an attempt to alleviate some of the staffing concerns, Burgum announced that the state health officer has amended an order that will allow health care workers with asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 to continue working in hospitals' COVID-19 units. The Republican governor said hospital administrators asked the state to take the extraordinary step.
    In an attempt to alleviate some of the staffing concerns, Burgum announced that interim State Health Officer Dirk Wilke has amended an order that will allow health care workers with asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 to continue working in COVID-19 units at hospitals and nursing homes.

    The move aligns with "crisis" guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Since only patients with COVID-19 could receive care from doctors and nurses with the virus, Burgum said he believes there will be little risk of more spread. He added that health care workers in COVID-19 units already wear protective gear to prevent them from contracting the virus.

    The Republican governor said health care providers asked the state to take the extraordinary step, adding that "apparently some (providers) had the ability to do this in other states."
    This seems like a bad idea

    It's not like they have a choice at this point, they're at 100% capacity and they've tried nothing and they're all out of ideas. There's no one to replace medical staff waylaid by the virus and really..who cares if a couple of wage slave nurses die from a cytokine storm in the grand scheme of things? There's no one to the west or south of them that can take on patients either. Metro MN is about the closest option, but I doubt MN is all that keen on grabbing patients from the dakotas right now.

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  • Mild ConfusionMild Confusion Smash All Things Registered User regular
    Dark_Side wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    https://www.grandforksherald.com/newsmd/coronavirus/6753876-With-North-Dakota-hospitals-at-100-capacity-Burgum-announces-COVID-positive-nurses-can-stay-at-work
    With North Dakota hospitals at 100% capacity, Burgum announces COVID-positive nurses can stay at work

    In an attempt to alleviate some of the staffing concerns, Burgum announced that the state health officer has amended an order that will allow health care workers with asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 to continue working in hospitals' COVID-19 units. The Republican governor said hospital administrators asked the state to take the extraordinary step.
    In an attempt to alleviate some of the staffing concerns, Burgum announced that interim State Health Officer Dirk Wilke has amended an order that will allow health care workers with asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 to continue working in COVID-19 units at hospitals and nursing homes.

    The move aligns with "crisis" guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Since only patients with COVID-19 could receive care from doctors and nurses with the virus, Burgum said he believes there will be little risk of more spread. He added that health care workers in COVID-19 units already wear protective gear to prevent them from contracting the virus.

    The Republican governor said health care providers asked the state to take the extraordinary step, adding that "apparently some (providers) had the ability to do this in other states."
    This seems like a bad idea

    It's not like they have a choice at this point, they're at 100% capacity and they've tried nothing and they're all out of ideas. There's no one to replace medical staff waylaid by the virus and really..who cares if a couple of wage slave nurses die from a cytokine storm in the grand scheme of things? There's no one to the west or south of them that can take on patients either. Metro MN is about the closest option, but I doubt MN is all that keen on grabbing patients from the dakotas right now.

    I’m pretty sure it matters to the other hospital workers at risk. They get a say in their life, they’re not fucking slaves.

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  • ElvenshaeElvenshae Registered User regular
    I’m reasonably certain that was sarcasm; like from the POV of the not-terribly-affected people making the decisions.

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  • Dark_SideDark_Side Registered User regular
    Elvenshae wrote: »
    I’m reasonably certain that was sarcasm; like from the POV of the not-terribly-affected people making the decisions.

    It was sarcasm. From the start of this there's been a despicable sort of attitude towards frontline, at risk workers. And not just in the medical field either.

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  • Mild ConfusionMild Confusion Smash All Things Registered User regular
    I apologize.

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  • ElvenshaeElvenshae Registered User regular
    Dark_Side wrote: »
    Elvenshae wrote: »
    I’m reasonably certain that was sarcasm; like from the POV of the not-terribly-affected people making the decisions.

    It was sarcasm. From the start of this there's been a despicable sort of attitude towards frontline, at risk workers. And not just in the medical field either.

    Like, "Let's run a large-scale medico-sociological experiment - with kids and teachers!"

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  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    Dark_Side wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    https://www.grandforksherald.com/newsmd/coronavirus/6753876-With-North-Dakota-hospitals-at-100-capacity-Burgum-announces-COVID-positive-nurses-can-stay-at-work
    With North Dakota hospitals at 100% capacity, Burgum announces COVID-positive nurses can stay at work

    In an attempt to alleviate some of the staffing concerns, Burgum announced that the state health officer has amended an order that will allow health care workers with asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 to continue working in hospitals' COVID-19 units. The Republican governor said hospital administrators asked the state to take the extraordinary step.
    In an attempt to alleviate some of the staffing concerns, Burgum announced that interim State Health Officer Dirk Wilke has amended an order that will allow health care workers with asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 to continue working in COVID-19 units at hospitals and nursing homes.

    The move aligns with "crisis" guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Since only patients with COVID-19 could receive care from doctors and nurses with the virus, Burgum said he believes there will be little risk of more spread. He added that health care workers in COVID-19 units already wear protective gear to prevent them from contracting the virus.

    The Republican governor said health care providers asked the state to take the extraordinary step, adding that "apparently some (providers) had the ability to do this in other states."
    This seems like a bad idea

    It's not like they have a choice at this point, they're at 100% capacity and they've tried nothing and they're all out of ideas. There's no one to replace medical staff waylaid by the virus and really..who cares if a couple of wage slave nurses die from a cytokine storm in the grand scheme of things? There's no one to the west or south of them that can take on patients either. Metro MN is about the closest option, but I doubt MN is all that keen on grabbing patients from the dakotas right now.

    I’m pretty sure it matters to the other hospital workers at risk. They get a say in their life, they’re not fucking slaves.

    But now they can be fired for not working.

  • TubularLuggageTubularLuggage Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    quovadis13 wrote: »
    Canada's response hasnt been that great, but we have always had the "At least we aren't America" mentality. Part of the reason might be because even when we were "locked down", things in Canada, or at least Ontario, weren't really all that locked down. You couldn't eat at a restaurant, but otherwise, things were pretty normal for the most part. There was a bit of time where you were really limited on being in stores, but even that wasnt that big of a deal. For the most part, Canadians took masking and definitely social distancing fairly serious. That's changed over the last few months and I think the biggest driver of Covid cases is spread amongst close contacts with known cases.

    However, with the recent rising cases, action by the provincial governments has been lackluster and not nearly enough. With what we know now, I think you can make the argument that we dont need widescale intervention, but more targeted and effective intervention which we still arent even getting. We know alot more about how to deal with things now than we did in March, but we are still not really doing the things that should help which is frustrating.

    There's also significant differences in how different regions of Canada are handling it. For instance, the per capita difference in active cases between Atlantic Canada and the rest of the country is staggering.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Canada

    The Atlantic region combined has 18 active cases per million people at the moment (and that's considered high here right now). The next lowest province has over 700 per million.

    TubularLuggage on
  • Mild ConfusionMild Confusion Smash All Things Registered User regular
    Ohio’s daily case count has more than doubled in the past two weeks.

    Local news is saying statewide hospitals are reaching capacity and hundreds of hospital workers are coming down with COVID, 300 cases on one day alone. Dr Amy Acton called this months ago before she was ousted because of anti-COVID threats.

    GOV DeWine is giving a statewide address today on COVID, so we’ll see what actions he takes.

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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    I just want to say that the Dippin' Dots refrigeration discussion was absolutely fascinating and "Dippin' Dots might be weirdly important in suppressing a global pandemic" has been added to my personal list of "things from before that now have much deeper and weirder relevance now" along with "Save the whales - because they are vitally important to the global carbon cycle" and "Fur is murder and worse because fur farming could be an existential threat to the human race due to their pandemic potential."

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  • delf4delf4 Registered User regular
    Dark_Side wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    https://www.grandforksherald.com/newsmd/coronavirus/6753876-With-North-Dakota-hospitals-at-100-capacity-Burgum-announces-COVID-positive-nurses-can-stay-at-work
    With North Dakota hospitals at 100% capacity, Burgum announces COVID-positive nurses can stay at work

    In an attempt to alleviate some of the staffing concerns, Burgum announced that the state health officer has amended an order that will allow health care workers with asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 to continue working in hospitals' COVID-19 units. The Republican governor said hospital administrators asked the state to take the extraordinary step.
    In an attempt to alleviate some of the staffing concerns, Burgum announced that interim State Health Officer Dirk Wilke has amended an order that will allow health care workers with asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 to continue working in COVID-19 units at hospitals and nursing homes.

    The move aligns with "crisis" guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Since only patients with COVID-19 could receive care from doctors and nurses with the virus, Burgum said he believes there will be little risk of more spread. He added that health care workers in COVID-19 units already wear protective gear to prevent them from contracting the virus.

    The Republican governor said health care providers asked the state to take the extraordinary step, adding that "apparently some (providers) had the ability to do this in other states."
    This seems like a bad idea

    It's not like they have a choice at this point, they're at 100% capacity and they've tried nothing and they're all out of ideas. There's no one to replace medical staff waylaid by the virus and really..who cares if a couple of wage slave nurses die from a cytokine storm in the grand scheme of things? There's no one to the west or south of them that can take on patients either. Metro MN is about the closest option, but I doubt MN is all that keen on grabbing patients from the dakotas right now.

    MN also is getting close to capacity now in our hospitals, especially outside the metro areas.

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