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The General [Coronavirus] Discussion Thread: Vaccines!

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Posts

  • GilgaronGilgaron Registered User regular
    Ohio’s daily case count has more than doubled in the past two weeks.

    Local news is saying statewide hospitals are reaching capacity and hundreds of hospital workers are coming down with COVID, 300 cases on one day alone. Dr Amy Acton called this months ago before she was ousted because of anti-COVID threats.

    GOV DeWine is giving a statewide address today on COVID, so we’ll see what actions he takes.

    Said threats have also prevented anyone else from taking her old position. Anti-intellectualism is a mess.

  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Meanwhile, in Europe we can check out what the effects would be of actually doing anything

    Stronger or earlier action group

    UK -> cases return to flat possibly falling
    Belgium -> cases falling
    France -> unstable data, most likely falling
    Spain -> flat, possibly falling

    Moderate Or later action group

    Switzerland -> cases rising, maybe flattening
    Italy -> cases rising, maybe flattening
    Portugal -> cases rising, maybe flattening
    Hungary -> cases rising, maybe flattening

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • RonTheDMRonTheDM Yes, yes Registered User regular
    DeWine won't do shit. Every one of his emergency meetings is "u got this ohio :)" and then he skateboards off stage while bars and everything stay open and in a few days grocery stores will be stuffed to the gills with people buying turkeys for big Thanksgiving get togethers.

  • GilgaronGilgaron Registered User regular
    DeWine won't do shit. Every one of his emergency meetings is "u got this ohio :)" and then he skateboards off stage while bars and everything stay open and in a few days grocery stores will be stuffed to the gills with people buying turkeys for big Thanksgiving get togethers.

    Hey now, there'll at least be some scolding and pleading. While the news conferences may not be terribly effectual, the state has been investing lots in testing infrastructure. There's been more struggle on logistics than ought to be if we'd coherent federal leadership but you have to play with the cards you're dealt I guess.

  • ChiselphaneChiselphane Registered User regular
    Elvenshae wrote: »
    Dark_Side wrote: »
    Elvenshae wrote: »
    I’m reasonably certain that was sarcasm; like from the POV of the not-terribly-affected people making the decisions.

    It was sarcasm. From the start of this there's been a despicable sort of attitude towards frontline, at risk workers. And not just in the medical field either.

    Like, "Let's run a large-scale medico-sociological experiment - with kids and teachers!"

    Covid is the Vault-Tec origin story

  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Central OhioRegistered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Gilgaron wrote: »
    DeWine won't do shit. Every one of his emergency meetings is "u got this ohio :)" and then he skateboards off stage while bars and everything stay open and in a few days grocery stores will be stuffed to the gills with people buying turkeys for big Thanksgiving get togethers.

    Hey now, there'll at least be some scolding and pleading. While the news conferences may not be terribly effectual, the state has been investing lots in testing infrastructure. There's been more struggle on logistics than ought to be if we'd coherent federal leadership but you have to play with the cards you're dealt I guess.

    His address was all scolding and pleading

    “If you don’t stop acting like Trumpy chuds schools, restaurants, bars, and gyms will be shut down!”

    Hey Mike

    The Trumpy chuds are gonna keep gambling with everyone else’s health because they’re selfish evil dipshits in the bottom 2% of all humans that have ever existed. They fucking suck.

    Edit: to be “fair” he did dunk on the stupid “more tests = more cases” bullshit by saying “yeah we’re testing more but fuck that, we’re out of hospital beds, THAT’S the number that matters”

    And then did nothing but plead and scold

    Captain Inertia on
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  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    We have failed to learn this lesson repeatedly and we're doing it again: Due to both the lagging nature of the indicators and exponential growth, if you wait until "wow, that's pretty bad" to react you have already missed the window where you could have stopped it from being really bad.

    Then when we finally do the thing three weeks too late, people say "What was even the point of doing the thing, it didn't help?"

  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    We have failed to learn this lesson repeatedly and we're doing it again: Due to both the lagging nature of the indicators and exponential growth, if you wait until "wow, that's pretty bad" to react you have already missed the window where you could have stopped it from being really bad.

    Then when we finally do the thing three weeks too late, people say "What was even the point of doing the thing, it didn't help?"

    I think Middle School math should really focus on the concept of exponential growth.

  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Central OhioRegistered User regular
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    We have failed to learn this lesson repeatedly and we're doing it again: Due to both the lagging nature of the indicators and exponential growth, if you wait until "wow, that's pretty bad" to react you have already missed the window where you could have stopped it from being really bad.

    Then when we finally do the thing three weeks too late, people say "What was even the point of doing the thing, it didn't help?"

    DeWine made this same exact point and still just pleaded and scolded, everything in the state is wide fucking open

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  • StarZapperStarZapper Vermont, Bizzaro world.Registered User regular
    It's pretty incredible, here we are in the midst of the worst outbreak at the worst possible time, and not a single state is really doing a damn thing about it. I guess New York is going to have all restaurants close by 10 every night? Like wtf is that actually going to do, just shut down restaurants / bars already. Instead of doing what we know works we just keep doing this song and dance around it and being like "why are infections so high?." I don't think anything has made me lose faith in people so much as our national failure at every level to actually take covid seriously.

  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    StarZapper wrote: »
    It's pretty incredible, here we are in the midst of the worst outbreak at the worst possible time, and not a single state is really doing a damn thing about it. I guess New York is going to have all restaurants close by 10 every night? Like wtf is that actually going to do, just shut down restaurants / bars already. Instead of doing what we know works we just keep doing this song and dance around it and being like "why are infections so high?." I don't think anything has made me lose faith in people so much as our national failure at every level to actually take covid seriously.

    But we just want things to be normal again!
    We want it so badly! Why isn't that enough?

  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    StarZapper wrote: »
    It's pretty incredible, here we are in the midst of the worst outbreak at the worst possible time, and not a single state is really doing a damn thing about it. I guess New York is going to have all restaurants close by 10 every night? Like wtf is that actually going to do, just shut down restaurants / bars already. Instead of doing what we know works we just keep doing this song and dance around it and being like "why are infections so high?." I don't think anything has made me lose faith in people so much as our national failure at every level to actually take covid seriously.

    In upstate NY we've recently made the decision to limit restaurants to only seating four people in a group!

    I don't get it either, we had like an 8% positivity on testing the other day and just beat our June active cases peak.

    Nod. Get treat. PSN: Quippish
  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    I went to a restaurant in NYC yesterday (outside in a tent) but I think I'm going to quit going to restaurants until the spring now. They have to be too enclosed now to be warm enough and that's going to reduce the benefits of being outside.

  • CalicaCalica Registered User regular
    StarZapper wrote: »
    It's pretty incredible, here we are in the midst of the worst outbreak at the worst possible time, and not a single state is really doing a damn thing about it. I guess New York is going to have all restaurants close by 10 every night? Like wtf is that actually going to do, just shut down restaurants / bars already. Instead of doing what we know works we just keep doing this song and dance around it and being like "why are infections so high?." I don't think anything has made me lose faith in people so much as our national failure at every level to actually take covid seriously.

    To be fair, state governments are over a barrel because they can't go into debt to provide the relief they need in order to shut things down without literally killing people via starvation and homelessness. The federal government is the only entity that can help, and Mitch McConnell refuses to let it.

  • kimekime Queen of Blades Registered User regular
    Calica wrote: »
    StarZapper wrote: »
    It's pretty incredible, here we are in the midst of the worst outbreak at the worst possible time, and not a single state is really doing a damn thing about it. I guess New York is going to have all restaurants close by 10 every night? Like wtf is that actually going to do, just shut down restaurants / bars already. Instead of doing what we know works we just keep doing this song and dance around it and being like "why are infections so high?." I don't think anything has made me lose faith in people so much as our national failure at every level to actually take covid seriously.

    To be fair, state governments are over a barrel because they can't go into debt to provide the relief they need in order to shut things down without literally killing people via starvation and homelessness. The federal government is the only entity that can help, and Mitch McConnell refuses to let it.

    Every individual republican senator gives mitch power. They could take it away if they wanted, but they don't

    Battle.net ID: kime#1822
    3DS Friend Code: 3110-5393-4113
    Steam profile
  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    kime wrote: »
    Calica wrote: »
    StarZapper wrote: »
    It's pretty incredible, here we are in the midst of the worst outbreak at the worst possible time, and not a single state is really doing a damn thing about it. I guess New York is going to have all restaurants close by 10 every night? Like wtf is that actually going to do, just shut down restaurants / bars already. Instead of doing what we know works we just keep doing this song and dance around it and being like "why are infections so high?." I don't think anything has made me lose faith in people so much as our national failure at every level to actually take covid seriously.

    To be fair, state governments are over a barrel because they can't go into debt to provide the relief they need in order to shut things down without literally killing people via starvation and homelessness. The federal government is the only entity that can help, and Mitch McConnell refuses to let it.

    Every individual republican senator gives mitch power. They could take it away if they wanted, but they don't

    I listened to a podcast about this a while back and apparently the reason the Republican senators are not doing any Covid relief is that they are sincerely against it. They don't want to do it. Just passing the relief funds that they did was a big deal for them, very controversial because it went so much against their principles.

  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Central OhioRegistered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Yeah we spent way too much time debating whether we should acknowledge reality or not instead of sending newly-printed money at businesses to put in better air replacement (if indoors) or retrofitting outdoor spaces

    And now tens of thousands more avoidable deaths will occur from the time Pfizer announced their vaccine to enough doses being administered to bend the curve because we’re an incredibly dumb fucking lot

    Captain Inertia on
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  • CalicaCalica Registered User regular
    kime wrote: »
    Calica wrote: »
    StarZapper wrote: »
    It's pretty incredible, here we are in the midst of the worst outbreak at the worst possible time, and not a single state is really doing a damn thing about it. I guess New York is going to have all restaurants close by 10 every night? Like wtf is that actually going to do, just shut down restaurants / bars already. Instead of doing what we know works we just keep doing this song and dance around it and being like "why are infections so high?." I don't think anything has made me lose faith in people so much as our national failure at every level to actually take covid seriously.

    To be fair, state governments are over a barrel because they can't go into debt to provide the relief they need in order to shut things down without literally killing people via starvation and homelessness. The federal government is the only entity that can help, and Mitch McConnell refuses to let it.

    Every individual republican senator gives mitch power. They could take it away if they wanted, but they don't

    I listened to a podcast about this a while back and apparently the reason the Republican senators are not doing any Covid relief is that they are sincerely against it. They don't want to do it. Just passing the relief funds that they did was a big deal for them, very controversial because it went so much against their principles.

    Did the podcast say what their reasons were? I'm curious whether it's malice or stupidity.

  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    Calica wrote: »
    kime wrote: »
    Calica wrote: »
    StarZapper wrote: »
    It's pretty incredible, here we are in the midst of the worst outbreak at the worst possible time, and not a single state is really doing a damn thing about it. I guess New York is going to have all restaurants close by 10 every night? Like wtf is that actually going to do, just shut down restaurants / bars already. Instead of doing what we know works we just keep doing this song and dance around it and being like "why are infections so high?." I don't think anything has made me lose faith in people so much as our national failure at every level to actually take covid seriously.

    To be fair, state governments are over a barrel because they can't go into debt to provide the relief they need in order to shut things down without literally killing people via starvation and homelessness. The federal government is the only entity that can help, and Mitch McConnell refuses to let it.

    Every individual republican senator gives mitch power. They could take it away if they wanted, but they don't

    I listened to a podcast about this a while back and apparently the reason the Republican senators are not doing any Covid relief is that they are sincerely against it. They don't want to do it. Just passing the relief funds that they did was a big deal for them, very controversial because it went so much against their principles.

    Did the podcast say what their reasons were? I'm curious whether it's malice or stupidity.

    I don’t remember. I’ve listened to a lot of podcasts in the last month. But it appears to be a principle very important to Republican voters and politicians- handouts are to be avoided.

  • AntoshkaAntoshka Miauen Oil Change LazarusRegistered User regular
    edited November 2020
    People in my workplace are very nervous today, here in NZ, with discussion around the consequences of another lockdown - most are hoping it won't occur, but pretty much everyone was accepting it was possible. This was after one case showed up with no obvious link to the border / quarantine facilities today. Further announcements tonight on what information has been gotten from contact tracers today.

    Edit: Updates!

    They called in sick, after going for a test, but were convinced to go into work with a mask on by a manager.
    This person became symptomatic on 9th November, was tested on 10th November, was asked to isolate but went to work on the 11th November.The person called in sick to work after receiving advice to isolate, but after advice from their manager, went to work wearing a mask.

    “It’s a disappointing situation,” said Hipkins of the fact that the person’s manager advised them to go against medical advice and come in to work while they waited for their test result. “Please be good employers and respect that when staff ring in sick, you should go out of your way to make sure that they can stay home.”

    It seems all of downtown Auckland is being asked to work from home tomorrow, mask wearing is being emphasized, and several locations are identified as potential spreading areas, including a few Uber rides. So, basically, we are going to have to be incredibly lucky for it not to spread at least to some more people.

    Damn it.

    Antoshka on
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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    Antoshka wrote: »
    People in my workplace are very nervous today, here in NZ, with discussion around the consequences of another lockdown - most are hoping it won't occur, but pretty much everyone was accepting it was possible. This was after one case showed up with no obvious link to the border / quarantine facilities today. Further announcements tonight on what information has been gotten from contact tracers today.

    My sympathies (along with more than a little envy :? ).

  • Dark_SideDark_Side Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Calica wrote: »
    kime wrote: »
    Calica wrote: »
    StarZapper wrote: »
    It's pretty incredible, here we are in the midst of the worst outbreak at the worst possible time, and not a single state is really doing a damn thing about it. I guess New York is going to have all restaurants close by 10 every night? Like wtf is that actually going to do, just shut down restaurants / bars already. Instead of doing what we know works we just keep doing this song and dance around it and being like "why are infections so high?." I don't think anything has made me lose faith in people so much as our national failure at every level to actually take covid seriously.

    To be fair, state governments are over a barrel because they can't go into debt to provide the relief they need in order to shut things down without literally killing people via starvation and homelessness. The federal government is the only entity that can help, and Mitch McConnell refuses to let it.

    Every individual republican senator gives mitch power. They could take it away if they wanted, but they don't

    I listened to a podcast about this a while back and apparently the reason the Republican senators are not doing any Covid relief is that they are sincerely against it. They don't want to do it. Just passing the relief funds that they did was a big deal for them, very controversial because it went so much against their principles.

    Did the podcast say what their reasons were? I'm curious whether it's malice or stupidity.

    I don’t remember. I’ve listened to a lot of podcasts in the last month. But it appears to be a principle very important to Republican voters and politicians- handouts are to be avoided.

    Yet there's a proud tradition of American farmers taking yearly handouts. Red states get more tax dollars back then they contribute. Old people get free medical care! It's all an arbitrary line in the sand full of bullshit excuses for why it's ok over here, but not over there. The base piece of it is that my personal handouts are justified, everyone else's handouts are mooching off the taxpayers back.

    Dark_Side on
  • HefflingHeffling No Pic EverRegistered User regular
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    We have failed to learn this lesson repeatedly and we're doing it again: Due to both the lagging nature of the indicators and exponential growth, if you wait until "wow, that's pretty bad" to react you have already missed the window where you could have stopped it from being really bad.

    Then when we finally do the thing three weeks too late, people say "What was even the point of doing the thing, it didn't help?"

    I think Middle School math should really focus on the concept of exponential growth.

    I don't think middle schoolers have the skills yet to learn about exponential growth. In middle school (US Junior High), I learned pre-algebra and algebra. But that was taught to the top tier students. Algebra is the first play you're even exposed to what would later develop into exponential growth. And I didn't really get introduced the concept until I learned about parabolics in the 10th grade.

    A lot of students don't learn algebra until they get to college.

  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    In the UK I definitely learned about exponential graphs in secondary school (equivalent of middle school.)

  • WhiteZinfandelWhiteZinfandel Your insides Let me show you themRegistered User regular
    Heffling wrote: »
    A lot of students don't learn algebra until they get to college.

    Wait, what? I was a bit more advanced than my peers, but I started pre-algebra in 6th grade and was in algebra 1 at 7th grade. Most of the kids were one year behind me. This was in California in the early oughts. Where/when did you go to school that a sizable portion of students were six years slower on the uptake?

  • Fuzzy Cumulonimbus CloudFuzzy Cumulonimbus Cloud Registered User regular
    Heffling wrote: »
    A lot of students don't learn algebra until they get to college.

    Wait, what? I was a bit more advanced than my peers, but I started pre-algebra in 6th grade and was in algebra 1 at 7th grade. Most of the kids were one year behind me. This was in California in the early oughts. Where/when did you go to school that a sizable portion of students were six years slower on the uptake?
    You can spread algebra II to take up to year twelve to complete.

  • WhiteZinfandelWhiteZinfandel Your insides Let me show you themRegistered User regular
    Heffling wrote: »
    A lot of students don't learn algebra until they get to college.

    Wait, what? I was a bit more advanced than my peers, but I started pre-algebra in 6th grade and was in algebra 1 at 7th grade. Most of the kids were one year behind me. This was in California in the early oughts. Where/when did you go to school that a sizable portion of students were six years slower on the uptake?
    You can spread algebra II to take up to year twelve to complete.

    What does that have to do with Heffling's assertion that a lot of students don't learn algebra until they get to college?

  • Red RaevynRed Raevyn because I only take Bubble Baths Registered User regular
    Well on the one hand the common core state standards (wikipedia, or direct to official) adopted by most US states clearly include algebra in the high school standards, and algebraic concepts in middle school. So no one should be graduating without it.

    On the other hand I've taught math in high school and done a fair bit of tutoring at the college level and too many students don't really learn algebra until college makes them (or if they don't go, maybe ever). But they should have, they were just failed by our education system, and I don't think they're a majority.

    ... feels like we're kind of off topic though, so related to numbers, I can't believe how quickly my brain got used to 100k+ cases per day. Ugh.

  • Fuzzy Cumulonimbus CloudFuzzy Cumulonimbus Cloud Registered User regular
    Heffling wrote: »
    A lot of students don't learn algebra until they get to college.

    Wait, what? I was a bit more advanced than my peers, but I started pre-algebra in 6th grade and was in algebra 1 at 7th grade. Most of the kids were one year behind me. This was in California in the early oughts. Where/when did you go to school that a sizable portion of students were six years slower on the uptake?
    You can spread algebra II to take up to year twelve to complete.

    What does that have to do with Heffling's assertion that a lot of students don't learn algebra until they get to college?
    Unless you're stem track it is super common to drag out algebra till the very end of High School.

  • Fuzzy Cumulonimbus CloudFuzzy Cumulonimbus Cloud Registered User regular
    And all universities tend to jam freshmen into remedial algebra classes because the training is so poor in high school. Source: reality.

  • AntoshkaAntoshka Miauen Oil Change LazarusRegistered User regular
    Alright, so in response to that case:

    All workers in the city are asked to work from home. University exams scheduled for tomorrow are now all digital. Council facilities are closed. A new testing center has been opened on the same block as the apartments affected, with the intent to test residents, and further announcements are pending more information.

    I'm guessing, unless we get very lucky, we're heading for a lockdown.

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  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane Not Angry... Just VERY Disappointed...Registered User regular





    Our daily update is published. States reported 1.4M new tests and 144k cases, another all-time high. 65.4k people are hospitalized, 15k more than on election day. The death toll was 1,421, pushing the 7-day average over 1,000.

    Deaths are up substantially in every state in the Midwest region—and we're now seeing more fatalities from the most populous states.

    Hospitalizations are now rising very quickly. The last three days standout, but across all of November, we're averaging 1,636 more current hospitalizations each day.

    The COVID Tracking Project is an initiative to generate and report comprehensive state-level coronavirus data

    This is feeling like a nightmare.

    Like, I mean that legitimately. It feels like no matter how safe anyone's been, these latest explosions of cases are going to rip through the rest of the country in a dire and awful way. Thanksgiving and Christmas in the US are going to be horror shows.

    I'm starting to become increasingly convinced that it's hopeless.

  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    We went from "oh man 100k cases" to 150k in about a week. 200k is coming sooner than we think.

  • GilgaronGilgaron Registered User regular
    I think we learned compound interest in 6th grade... you could explain it to people like that, but I am not sure it'd penetrate better than a graph.

  • ThawmusThawmus +Jackface Registered User regular
    My wife is now getting rapid response covid testing on a weekly basis at work. This shit's suddenly getting a whole lot scarier. Especially when I know/have heard that the rapid response tests are shit.

    Twitch: Thawmus83
  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    It’s like having an un neutered female cat... you go from having one cat to having 40 cats in a very short amount of time.

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  • [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular

    These graphs are very interesting.

    Look at the extremely cyclical "currently hospitalized" graph. It tells a story of a large outbreak in May, one in August, and one right now.

    But the same clear pattern is not found in tests, cases, or deaths, although you can see hints of it in cases and more strongly in deaths.

    This leads me to conclude a few things:
    1. The US is in the middle of a third wave.
    2. Test capacity was shit until just about now.
    3. As a result, cases were severely underreported until now (may still be, but certainly was before).
    4. Deaths were significantly worse during the first wave.
    5. We have gotten significantly better at treating covid, but probably unlikely to get any better at it without new treatments/vaccines.
    6. Cases dropped sharply twice before. Either there were effective lockdowns or terrified people hid indoors en masse.

    Sic transit gloria mundi.
  • Monkey Ball WarriorMonkey Ball Warrior A collection of mediocre hats Seattle, WARegistered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Either there were effective lockdowns or terrified people hid indoors en masse.

    Or both. I personally find it pretty terrifying when the state government says "STAY IN YOUR HOMES! AVOID PEOPLE! THERE'S A PANDEMIC ON!".

    I'd of course prefer if more folks were at least concerned by such things, instead of dismissive.

    It's generally a good idea to be scared of a virus that can kill you.

    Monkey Ball Warrior on
    "I resent the entire notion of a body as an ante and then raise you a generalized dissatisfaction with physicality itself" -- Tycho
  • CorvusCorvus . VancouverRegistered User regular
    Some infographics on transmission scenarios based on real case data in the health area I live in here in Vancouver area.

    :so_raven:
This discussion has been closed.