The US has deployed special forces to Mozambique in order to help quell the insurgency there. I've been expecting this for about a year now; it took longer for the US to get involved than I'd have thought. In impoverished northern Mozambique, a militant Islamic insurgency has escalated from a handful of guys killing and kidnapping people in 2017 to a force estimated at ~1000 strong which has captured a medium sized port town and some villages in the area. The main reason this concerns the US and other western countries is that the insurgency's area of operations abuts a massive natural gas project run by Total, to the detriment of the project's development.
This had an aura of inevitability to it, didn't it? Anyways, I thought you'd be interested in this, I read it about a week ago. In the usual rush to join a new war you expect the usual justifications from American policy makers, directly from them, and then trickling down through friendly media and on down. Some variation of "we have to do something" is a simplistic but mostly accurate version of it. So I'm always interested in reading in what the something turned out to be, in some actually measured way. It didn't get much publicity, but Brown's Watson Institute released a paper on US's security assistance to Burkina Faso -in the Sahel_ and the effects of the militaristic intervention. I keep up with the goings on in the Sahel, but haven't read any all encompassing work on the relatively recent American intervention (it also talks about France, but that's for another thread). I think you should go through the whole thing but in short what was accomplished:
A) Intensifying the immediate conflict. And spreading the conflict to more of the surrounding areas.
Just amazing isn't it? Even as a confessed analogy hater, it makes me want to analogize (I will not, because I have principles).
I don't think if "enjoy" is the right word for what you'd get out of it, but I'd think you'd find it interesting. It is endlessly fascinating how the American military-focused foreign policy wing doesn't just fail to accomplish its stated immediate goals, used to justify intervention, but is measurably harmful and deteriorate existing situations in multiple ways that are usually self-reinforcing.
Elki, thank you for saying in three lines what I seemed to have failed to express in as many, probably more, posts.
Blinkim is very concerned that the people behind the violent coup are in trouble.
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Zavianuniversal peace sounds better than forever warRegistered Userregular
"We are deeply concerned by growing signs of anti-democratic behavior and politicization of the legal system in the US. The US government should release detained immigrants and prisoners of war, pending an independent and transparent inquiry into human rights and due process concerns."
"Detained former officials" is a hell of a phrase here
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Zavianuniversal peace sounds better than forever warRegistered Userregular
as a reminder, Blinken was one of the officials that originally set up a deal with the Saudis to help genocide people in Yemen, so has ZERO credibility when discussing human rights concerns
There is a renewed crisis brewing in Ukraine. Tensions in the Donbass have spiked over the last several days, threatening the breakdown of the Minsk II Ceasefire. There has been sporadic low-intensity fighting between Ukraine and the Russian-backed Donetsk separatists ever since the February 2015 ceasefire, but until now both sides have generally abided by the terms of the agreement, which mandated the mutual withdrawal of heavy weapons.
Since March 27, there have been widespread reports on social media of Russian armor and artillery massing on the Ukrainian border (which is also Russia's unofficial border with the unrecognized Donetsk People's Republic). The Russian Army held a military exercise near the border in the Southern Military District which ended on March 23; it appears those troops did not return to their barracks. (NYT) On March 31, the U.S. Army's European Command raised its threat level to "Imminent Crisis" (Stars & Stripes) On April 1, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry accused Russia of systemic escalation unseen in recent years. (MFA)
Yesterday, President Biden spoke to President Zelensky and affirmed America's commitment to Ukrainian territorial integrity. (AFP) On the same day, Russia issued a warning to NATO not to deploy troops to Ukraine. (AFP)
Russia may be escalating in hopes of winning Ukrainian concessions over Crimea's water supply, which Ukraine controls. It has been kept cut off since the Russian invasion in 2014, and the peninsula is now experiencing an acute water shortage made worse by an ongoing drought.
There is a renewed crisis brewing in Ukraine. Tensions in the Donbass have spiked over the last several days, threatening the breakdown of the Minsk II Ceasefire. There has been sporadic low-intensity fighting between Ukraine and the Russian-backed Donetsk separatists ever since the February 2015 ceasefire, but until now both sides have generally abided by the terms of the agreement, which mandated the mutual withdrawal of heavy weapons.
Since March 27, there have been widespread reports on social media of Russian armor and artillery massing on the Ukrainian border (which is also Russia's unofficial border with the unrecognized Donetsk People's Republic). The Russian Army held a military exercise near the border in the Southern Military District which ended on March 23; it appears those troops did not return to their barracks. (NYT) On March 31, the U.S. Army's European Command raised its threat level to "Imminent Crisis" (Stars & Stripes) On April 1, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry accused Russia of systemic escalation unseen in recent years. (MFA)
Yesterday, President Biden spoke to President Zelensky and affirmed America's commitment to Ukrainian territorial integrity. (AFP) On the same day, Russia issued a warning to NATO not to deploy troops to Ukraine. (AFP)
Russia may be escalating in hopes of winning Ukrainian concessions over Crimea's water supply, which Ukraine controls. It has been kept cut off since the Russian invasion in 2014, and the peninsula is now experiencing an acute water shortage made worse by an ongoing drought.
I doubt we'll see NATO troops on the ground. I could easily believe large arm sales/ aid.
Since Ukraine is not a member of NATO none of the nations of NATO are going to be particularly antsy about staging up to a full scale war in defense of a non-member.
On the other hand many of the Eastern members of NATO are going to want to do whatever they can to dissuade Russia from more movement like this.
So arms sales training, and whatever covert or Intel support can be provided.
Meanwhile, the United Nations, EU and United States called for due process to be respected.
The Americas director of Human Rights Watch, Jose Miguel Vivanco, said on Saturday that the arrest warrants against Anez and her ministers “contain no evidence whatsoever that they have committed the crime of terrorism”.
“For that reason, they generate justifiable doubts about whether this is not a politically motivated process,” he tweeted.
So this doesn't seem like it's just some random ask.
I suspect this whole thing is a test that putin is doing with biden to see what he's dealing with.
True. Biden is an unknown since most of his career has been on legislation, and that's threatening. Obama is the man that they felt they could openly call "a p***y"* in official communications, and Trump just did what they asked for the price of some belly rubs. Biden though, is a political pragmatist, so is hard to know what he could do.
*Bad faith actors see good faith assumptions as weakness, which is why they don't deserve it.
I know the "crime of terrorism" is always pretty vague, but that doesn't sound like the sort of charge you should usually use when looking for a pretext to arrest former officials.
Corruption is the go to charge for a reason! Because they were probably corrupt and it is always plausible
I suspect this whole thing is a test that putin is doing with biden to see what he's dealing with.
True. Biden is an unknown since most of his career has been on legislation, and that's threatening. Obama is the man that they felt they could openly call "a p***y"* in official communications, and Trump just did what they asked for the price of some belly rubs. Biden though, is a political pragmatist, so is hard to know what he could do.
*Bad faith actors see good faith assumptions as weakness, which is why they don't deserve it.
Also, Biden came up in the 80's when the USSR was imploding so there is the question how much he believes in "the red menace".
Alternately, It's possible that Putin thinks Biden is too old and feeble to handle his brinksmanship and he can just muscle the ukraine into submission, which would be a huge mistake if Biden intends for Europe to have any faith in America going forward..
President Biden will host the prime minister of Japan at the White House on April 16, the White House said Friday.
The April 16 meeting will be the first official state visit Biden has hosted since assuming the office of the presidency in late January.
“This will be our first in-person visit from a foreign leader in the Biden-Harris administration, reflecting the importance we place on our bilateral relationship with Japan and our friendship and partnership with the Japanese people,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters Friday afternoon.
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga's chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato also confirmed the news to reporters, according to The Associated Press.
Yes, this meeting is about China, but not on the way that people expect. The current confrontation isn't merely a military one, but political and economical. This meeting is about trying to get a technological edge by muscling China out of the superconductor sector:
TOKYO -- The U.S. and Japanese governments will cooperate to secure a supply chain for strategic technology components such as semiconductors, Nikkei has learned.
The two sides will set up a working group to determine how to divide tasks between them, such as research and development and production. They hope to agree on the project when Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and U.S. President Joe Biden meet on April 16 in Washington.
The two leaders are expected to confirm the importance of creating a decentralized supply network. They will aim to establish a system in which production does not rely on specific regions such as Taiwan, where geopolitical risks are high, and China, where conflicts with the U.S. are deepening.
The working group will be attended by Japan's National Security Agency and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, along with counterparts from the U.S. National Security Council and the Department of Commerce.
The two sides are considering assigning undersecretary-level personnel to the top posts. First, the working group will identify the risks posed by the current supply networks in both countries.
Both Japan and the U.S. are grappling with a global shortage of semiconductors. The Biden administration has decided to ask Congress to provide a $50 billion subsidy to boost U.S. production of semiconductors.
Japan has strengths in the fields of semiconductor manufacturing equipment and materials. The two sides will consider cooperation in areas such as establishing a joint research base in Japan to develop new technology.
According to the Boston Consulting Group, the share of semiconductor production in the U.S. fell from 37% in 1990 to 12% in 2020. The market share of China, which invests huge amounts of subsidies in the sector, is projected to increase from 15% in 2020 to 24% in 2030, making it the largest in the world.
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India is offering more than $1 billion in cash to each semiconductor company that sets up manufacturing units in the country as it seeks to build on its smartphone assembly industry and strengthen its electronics supply chain, two officials said.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Make in India’ drive has helped to turn India into the world’s second-biggest mobile manufacturer after China. New Delhi believes it is time for chip companies to set up in the country.
“The government will give cash incentives of more than $1 billion to each company which will set up chip fabrication units,” a senior government official told Reuters, declining to be named as he was not authorised to speak with media.
“We’re assuring them that the government will be a buyer and there will also be mandates in the private market (for companies to buy locally made chips).”
For the closest comparison would be knowing that Germany is actually serious about confronting Russia the second they start developing power plants to not depend on Russian gas to keep the lights on.
I know the "crime of terrorism" is always pretty vague, but that doesn't sound like the sort of charge you should usually use when looking for a pretext to arrest former officials.
Corruption is the go to charge for a reason! Because they were probably corrupt and it is always plausible
Anez is arguably culpable for multiple mass murders. Just how brutal the crackdown post coup got never got much time in American media for obvious reasons.
I suspect this whole thing is a test that putin is doing with biden to see what he's dealing with.
True. Biden is an unknown since most of his career has been on legislation, and that's threatening. Obama is the man that they felt they could openly call "a p***y"* in official communications, and Trump just did what they asked for the price of some belly rubs. Biden though, is a political pragmatist, so is hard to know what he could do.
*Bad faith actors see good faith assumptions as weakness, which is why they don't deserve it.
Biden is famously hawkish, its not really that mysterious.
Got to wonder how long it's going to take for Xi to regret being a belligerent ass. His antics look like they've finely got the ball rolling on a number of things that are going to ream China in the ass. Like one thing that really should worry Xi, is not just the economic factors when China loses the jobs and money from people taking business elsewhere, but also how people in his country are likely still going to be willing to pay money for those foreign products, even if China makes them domestically because even the Chinese people don't exactly trust the quality of the stuff made in their nation. Like if Xi weren't a shitty, petty authoritarian scumbag, the smartest play would have been legitimate anti-corruption measures against the varies entities in China's industries that do all sorts of shit that undermines consumer confidence in the products they make.
I'll see if I can dig up the article, but a few years back they got into a spat with a major computer component manufacturer that is based in the US and did something to make it harder for them to sell their products in China, it was an outright ban. Most of the Chinese that were interviewed about it, said they'd still go through the extra hassle to get those computer components because they felt the quality was worth it and said they didn't trust their domestic companies to produce something good quality. It wasn't that they believed their fellow citizens to be incapable, it was that they didn't trust the people running the plants and companies, to not fuck them over because they'd likely cut a shit ton of corners to produce something to justify taking the money, that still couldn't ethically justify taking the money they were charging. I mean, I rail quite a bit about how shitty US megacorps are, but I gather their level of bullshit pales in comparison to the level of bullshit that China's state own businesses put out.
I suspect this whole thing is a test that putin is doing with biden to see what he's dealing with.
True. Biden is an unknown since most of his career has been on legislation, and that's threatening. Obama is the man that they felt they could openly call "a p***y"* in official communications, and Trump just did what they asked for the price of some belly rubs. Biden though, is a political pragmatist, so is hard to know what he could do.
*Bad faith actors see good faith assumptions as weakness, which is why they don't deserve it.
Biden is famously hawkish, its not really that mysterious.
Biden famously argued against intervention in Libya while he was VP, as an easy counter-example. He also argued against troop increases in Afghanistan during Obama's adminstration. Biden's stances on all sorts of things have shifted over the years in all sorts of ways. Even on foreign policy he's rarely been consistently "hawkish" or "dovish". Saying he's specifically this or that is generally silly.
Got to wonder how long it's going to take for Xi to regret being a belligerent ass. His antics look like they've finely got the ball rolling on a number of things that are going to ream China in the ass. Like one thing that really should worry Xi, is not just the economic factors when China loses the jobs and money from people taking business elsewhere, but also how people in his country are likely still going to be willing to pay money for those foreign products, even if China makes them domestically because even the Chinese people don't exactly trust the quality of the stuff made in their nation. Like if Xi weren't a shitty, petty authoritarian scumbag, the smartest play would have been legitimate anti-corruption measures against the varies entities in China's industries that do all sorts of shit that undermines consumer confidence in the products they make.
I'll see if I can dig up the article, but a few years back they got into a spat with a major computer component manufacturer that is based in the US and did something to make it harder for them to sell their products in China, it was an outright ban. Most of the Chinese that were interviewed about it, said they'd still go through the extra hassle to get those computer components because they felt the quality was worth it and said they didn't trust their domestic companies to produce something good quality. It wasn't that they believed their fellow citizens to be incapable, it was that they didn't trust the people running the plants and companies, to not fuck them over because they'd likely cut a shit ton of corners to produce something to justify taking the money, that still couldn't ethically justify taking the money they were charging. I mean, I rail quite a bit about how shitty US megacorps are, but I gather their level of bullshit pales in comparison to the level of bullshit that China's state own businesses put out.
Iran and China on Saturday signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement addressing economic issues amid crippling US sanctions on Iran, state TV reported.
The agreement dubbed the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, covers a variety of economic activity from oil and mining to promoting industrial activity in Iran, as well as transport and agricultural collaborations, according to the report.
No additional details of the agreement were revealed as Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and Chinese counterpart Wang Yi took part in a ceremony marking the event.
The deal marked the first time Iran has signed such a lengthy agreement with a major world power. In 2001, Iran and Russia singed a 10-year cooperation agreement, mainly in the nuclear field, that was lengthened to 20 years through two five-year extensions.
Before the ceremony Saturday, Wang met Iranian President Hassan Rowhani and special Iranian envoy in charge of the deal Ali Larijani.
On Friday Saeed Khatibzadeh, a spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry, called the agreement “deep, multilayer and full-fledged.”
The deal, which had been discussed since 2016, also supports tourism and cultural exchanges. It comes on the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Iran.
So this is pretty much going to take a while to resolve.
Unsurprisingly when the US essentially cajoles the "free world" (air quotes applied heavily) into taking an anti-Iranian stance they will fall in deeper with Beijing and Moscow
These sanctions that Biden has continued are a foreign policy failure. Not only has he failed to get Iran back into the JCPOA, but he's also created an environment that has pushed them further into the arms of a country that will enable and encourage Iranian authoritarianism rather than reform and social liberalisation.
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
Unsurprisingly when the US essentially cajoles the "free world" (air quotes applied heavily) into taking an anti-Iranian stance they will fall in deeper with Beijing and Moscow
These sanctions that Biden has continued are a foreign policy failure. Not only has he failed to get Iran back into the JCPOA, but he's also created an environment that has pushed them further into the arms of a country that will enable and encourage Iranian authoritarianism rather than reform and social liberalisation.
Well, the negotiations for the JCPOA are ongoing, so not quite as much of a failure as you suggest
Unsurprisingly when the US essentially cajoles the "free world" (air quotes applied heavily) into taking an anti-Iranian stance they will fall in deeper with Beijing and Moscow
These sanctions that Biden has continued are a foreign policy failure. Not only has he failed to get Iran back into the JCPOA, but he's also created an environment that has pushed them further into the arms of a country that will enable and encourage Iranian authoritarianism rather than reform and social liberalisation.
Well, the negotiations for the JCPOA are ongoing, so not quite as much of a failure as you suggest
The sanctions are noted by many experts as being a barrier to the deal getting made in the first place! We have the Chinese government signing extensive FP deals with the Iranian gov and clearly there is an issue there where the US has failed to go back on it's massively stupid drop out of the JCPOA, it's failed to get Iran back into the deal. We shall see whether the deal does come about but I have to say so far it looks very disappointing.
Unsurprisingly when the US essentially cajoles the "free world" (air quotes applied heavily) into taking an anti-Iranian stance they will fall in deeper with Beijing and Moscow
These sanctions that Biden has continued are a foreign policy failure. Not only has he failed to get Iran back into the JCPOA, but he's also created an environment that has pushed them further into the arms of a country that will enable and encourage Iranian authoritarianism rather than reform and social liberalisation.
Well, the negotiations for the JCPOA are ongoing, so not quite as much of a failure as you suggest
The sanctions are noted by many experts as being a barrier to the deal getting made in the first place! We have the Chinese government signing extensive FP deals with the Iranian gov and clearly there is an issue there where the US has failed to go back on it's massively stupid drop out of the JCPOA, it's failed to get Iran back into the deal. We shall see whether the deal does come about but I have to say so far it looks very disappointing.
IF the US wanted to get back into the JCPOA, the play was to inmediatly apologize to Iran and unilaterally revoking sanctions without expecting nothing since it was the US that broke the JCPOA on the first place and hope that Iran still desired to play ball.
But turns out that the JCPOA, and hell, the Middle East, is not as important these days, as seen by the great pivot to the Pacific. And let's be honest, no US President will do that. So that's it. With energy independance, why the US should care about the Persian Gulf? People complained about The Wars for Oil, but now it doesn't matter.
Unsurprisingly when the US essentially cajoles the "free world" (air quotes applied heavily) into taking an anti-Iranian stance they will fall in deeper with Beijing and Moscow
These sanctions that Biden has continued are a foreign policy failure. Not only has he failed to get Iran back into the JCPOA, but he's also created an environment that has pushed them further into the arms of a country that will enable and encourage Iranian authoritarianism rather than reform and social liberalisation.
Well, the negotiations for the JCPOA are ongoing, so not quite as much of a failure as you suggest
The sanctions are noted by many experts as being a barrier to the deal getting made in the first place! We have the Chinese government signing extensive FP deals with the Iranian gov and clearly there is an issue there where the US has failed to go back on it's massively stupid drop out of the JCPOA, it's failed to get Iran back into the deal. We shall see whether the deal does come about but I have to say so far it looks very disappointing.
The deal is happening mainly to bypass U.S. sanctions. It's specifically aimed at weakening America's hands in the negotiations. So you could say that sanctions are delivering at least one kind of deal.
Unsurprisingly when the US essentially cajoles the "free world" (air quotes applied heavily) into taking an anti-Iranian stance they will fall in deeper with Beijing and Moscow
These sanctions that Biden has continued are a foreign policy failure. Not only has he failed to get Iran back into the JCPOA, but he's also created an environment that has pushed them further into the arms of a country that will enable and encourage Iranian authoritarianism rather than reform and social liberalisation.
Well, the negotiations for the JCPOA are ongoing, so not quite as much of a failure as you suggest
The sanctions are noted by many experts as being a barrier to the deal getting made in the first place! We have the Chinese government signing extensive FP deals with the Iranian gov and clearly there is an issue there where the US has failed to go back on it's massively stupid drop out of the JCPOA, it's failed to get Iran back into the deal. We shall see whether the deal does come about but I have to say so far it looks very disappointing.
It's also possible that Iran is reading the tea leaves on the world powers; china is on the rise and isn't going to give a shit about them having nukes or not a well as being simply too big of a market for most countries to isolate.
All of which could have been avoided if trump had left well enough alone or if biden could have taken the hit on restoring obama's deal under the guise of cleaning up after trump's shitshow.
Unsurprisingly when the US essentially cajoles the "free world" (air quotes applied heavily) into taking an anti-Iranian stance they will fall in deeper with Beijing and Moscow
These sanctions that Biden has continued are a foreign policy failure. Not only has he failed to get Iran back into the JCPOA, but he's also created an environment that has pushed them further into the arms of a country that will enable and encourage Iranian authoritarianism rather than reform and social liberalisation.
The Iranians don't need encouragement to cut a deal with China. And Iran doesn't want to not be able to deal with europe and the west in general.
Unsurprisingly when the US essentially cajoles the "free world" (air quotes applied heavily) into taking an anti-Iranian stance they will fall in deeper with Beijing and Moscow
These sanctions that Biden has continued are a foreign policy failure. Not only has he failed to get Iran back into the JCPOA, but he's also created an environment that has pushed them further into the arms of a country that will enable and encourage Iranian authoritarianism rather than reform and social liberalisation.
Well, the negotiations for the JCPOA are ongoing, so not quite as much of a failure as you suggest
The sanctions are noted by many experts as being a barrier to the deal getting made in the first place! We have the Chinese government signing extensive FP deals with the Iranian gov and clearly there is an issue there where the US has failed to go back on it's massively stupid drop out of the JCPOA, it's failed to get Iran back into the deal. We shall see whether the deal does come about but I have to say so far it looks very disappointing.
It's also possible that Iran is reading the tea leaves on the world powers; china is on the rise and isn't going to give a shit about them having nukes or not a well as being simply too big of a market for most countries to isolate.
All of which could have been avoided if trump had left well enough alone or if biden could have taken the hit on restoring obama's deal under the guise of cleaning up after trump's shitshow.
No other country has done a better job of channeling the profit-maximizing drive of private corporations into geopolitical gains in recent years than communist China, the irony of which is lost on precisely no one.
The latest drama surrounds Nike, H&M and a slew of other Western clothing brands that voiced concern over reports of widespread human-rights abuses of the Muslim ethnic minority Uighurs by the Chinese government in Xinjiang. Multinationals work hard to avoid getting pulled into geopolitics, but reports of labor camps out of Xinjiang–which produces about 20% of the world’s cotton–made it much harder for them to continue doing so. Add in the increased fervor on social media that demands more corporations take stances on hot-button political issues and suddenly Western companies had a much harder time avoiding the trade-off of access vs. values.
Companies like Nike have no problem jumping into the political fray in the U.S. (See: the Colin Kaepernick ad campaign.) But how to respond when boycotts are threatened both from its customers in a free society and from those under an authoritarian government in a country that accounts for nearly a quarter of its global sales? Nike thought its measured responses were an acceptable balance, not drawing too much of Beijing’s ire while also acknowledging the concerns of Western consumers about possible labor camps. But then the U.S.–alongside Canada, the U.K. and the E.U.–decided on March 22 to slap sanctions on Chinese officials over the treatment of the Uighurs (the first time the U.K. and the E.U. have leveled human-rights-related sanctions against China in 30 years). At that point, Chinese social media dredged up Nike’s statement as proof of anti-Chinese sentiment, leading to calls for boycotts.
And the next hot button issue is the 2022 Winter Olympics:
Will China do the same with Nike? Hard to say at this point, especially because Beijing will host the 2022 Winter Olympics, less than 12 months away. Already, some Republicans are making life difficult for the Biden Administration by demanding the U.S. boycott the Games; others are calling for more targeted forms of boycotts that allow U.S. athletes to compete but pressure Western companies to stay home. In the coming months, calls like that will only grow louder, and not just in the U.S.; the Winter Olympics heavily feature the countries most likely to speak out against human-rights abuses–the U.S., Canada, the Nordics and others. Even if a boycott doesn’t materialize, athletes have minds of their own, and the Olympics have historically been venues for public protests.
If you’re Beijing, the crux of the issue is this: there comes a point where pushing companies too hard risks their leaving altogether, which means losing whatever influence you have over them. Beijing must ask itself: Does it want some influence all over the world, or complete influence over just part of it? As globalization fractures further, both countries and corporations will be forced to make decisions they had been avoiding for decades.
The fracture of globalization was unthinkable barely 5 years ago. Now is a very real and very likely possibility. Also, the Cold War paradigm suits Washington just fine. The free world vs. the red menace. So, this is going to happen.
I don't think it was at all unthinkable. People have been talking about the dangers of getting so dependant on China for ages. The thing is, the corporations themselves, many of whom have been complaining about the chinese for several years now, wanted in. They wanted that money. Both the cheap manufacturing and the huge consumer base. And that along with the post-cold-war idea that market integration would lead to political liberalization is what got us here. But plenty of people have been calling out the issue here and for a long time now. Like, Obama was looking at this kind of issue like a decade ago in his "pivot to asia" stuff.
EU is the far more important trading partner for Iran, than China and the US ever will be. Unless they end up specializing heavily into something that doesn't have a short shelf and that has high value to the rest of the world, most of their trade is going to be stuff, where it's getting traded to those closest to them. In fact, the more interesting thing to watch play out, is when we hit a point where the EU pretty much treats Iran, the way they did Cuba. I kind of doubt the Iranians are thrilled to have deals with China, given what China does to Muslims within their own country. If the EU goes hard on, "we think US sanctions on Iran, are really fucking dumb!" I wouldn't be surprised if Iran lined up a ton of deals with them. Russia is the other big one, but again, I suspect they have some reservations about that one because Putin is very much a dick and doesn't seem them as equals. Russia is also, last I heard dealing with population decline, on top of a decline in global influence.
Honestly, a huge wildcard right now, thanks to the Chinese government not being honest with data. Is how the demographics bomb is going to change things. According to the numbers China releases, they are likely hitting an overall population decline by either the end of this decade or early next decade. That said, some how theorized their numbers are bullshit curated to make China look strong and that China might actually hit population decline in the middle of the last decade. The various factories and plants being moved out could be really bad for China because there is plenty of indication that the money those things brought in didn't make it to that many. So China is potentially looking at having a massive impoverished senior population that can't really work the jobs they have available. Also we've seen how well things have worked out for others when the economy goes into the shitter and the young get stuck competing with the elderly for jobs.
I strongly think Xi misread things and assumed he had a far stronger hand than he actually had. Like he assumed that as long as he didn't outright start a war or kick foreign companies out, that he could do also sorts of shitty things and they'd stick around for the money. Also have to wonder if he is somewhat victim to be a kool-aid drinker himself. It's real easy to walk yourself into a bad spot, if you buy the very BS that your side was shilling.
EU is the far more important trading partner for Iran, than China and the US ever will be. Unless they end up specializing heavily into something that doesn't have a short shelf and that has high value to the rest of the world, most of their trade is going to be stuff, where it's getting traded to those closest to them. In fact, the more interesting thing to watch play out, is when we hit a point where the EU pretty much treats Iran, the way they did Cuba. I kind of doubt the Iranians are thrilled to have deals with China, given what China does to Muslims within their own country. If the EU goes hard on, "we think US sanctions on Iran, are really fucking dumb!" I wouldn't be surprised if Iran lined up a ton of deals with them. Russia is the other big one, but again, I suspect they have some reservations about that one because Putin is very much a dick and doesn't seem them as equals. Russia is also, last I heard dealing with population decline, on top of a decline in global influence.
The EU did. They tried to keep the deal afloat. But no EU company was willing to lose access to the US market AND the dollar system, so that was that.
I strongly think Xi misread things and assumed he had a far stronger hand than he actually had. Like he assumed that as long as he didn't outright start a war or kick foreign companies out, that he could do also sorts of shitty things and they'd stick around for the money. Also have to wonder if he is somewhat victim to be a kool-aid drinker himself. It's real easy to walk yourself into a bad spot, if you buy the very BS that your side was shilling.
Xi only cares about keeping in power at all costs. Which mean that is very likely that his only play is to quadruple down to keep the show running as long as possible.
EU is the far more important trading partner for Iran, than China and the US ever will be. Unless they end up specializing heavily into something that doesn't have a short shelf and that has high value to the rest of the world, most of their trade is going to be stuff, where it's getting traded to those closest to them. In fact, the more interesting thing to watch play out, is when we hit a point where the EU pretty much treats Iran, the way they did Cuba. I kind of doubt the Iranians are thrilled to have deals with China, given what China does to Muslims within their own country. If the EU goes hard on, "we think US sanctions on Iran, are really fucking dumb!" I wouldn't be surprised if Iran lined up a ton of deals with them. Russia is the other big one, but again, I suspect they have some reservations about that one because Putin is very much a dick and doesn't seem them as equals. Russia is also, last I heard dealing with population decline, on top of a decline in global influence.
Honestly, a huge wildcard right now, thanks to the Chinese government not being honest with data. Is how the demographics bomb is going to change things. According to the numbers China releases, they are likely hitting an overall population decline by either the end of this decade or early next decade. That said, some how theorized their numbers are bullshit curated to make China look strong and that China might actually hit population decline in the middle of the last decade. The various factories and plants being moved out could be really bad for China because there is plenty of indication that the money those things brought in didn't make it to that many. So China is potentially looking at having a massive impoverished senior population that can't really work the jobs they have available. Also we've seen how well things have worked out for others when the economy goes into the shitter and the young get stuck competing with the elderly for jobs.
I strongly think Xi misread things and assumed he had a far stronger hand than he actually had. Like he assumed that as long as he didn't outright start a war or kick foreign companies out, that he could do also sorts of shitty things and they'd stick around for the money. Also have to wonder if he is somewhat victim to be a kool-aid drinker himself. It's real easy to walk yourself into a bad spot, if you buy the very BS that your side was shilling.
Good hypothesis here. China needs to do something soon before the population bomb goes off or they are screwed longterm. Hence, all the aggressive posturing and actions since Xi .
Be that as it may, it's likely not lost on the Iranians that the Uyghurs are being genocided partly for their religious beliefs and that China gives no shits about the Sunni vs Shia thing. That if they were in China, they'd likely be in the camps as well. Hopefully, they do the smart thing and make damn sure those deals don't require or allow Chinese to solely manage anything on Iranian soil because I've heard the horror stories from places that have such setups. The Chinese overseers brought in tend to have zero respect for the native workforce and do all sorts of shitty things.
Anyways, seems to me that Xi's best play would have been a purge of the corporate corruption in all the state own companies and then trying to rehabilitate China's image there. it's a bad sign when your citizens don't want products made by your nation's companies and are willing to pay more for foreign made products. That can easily lead to the double whammy where companies start pulling out and then you start losing money not just from those plants being gone, but also because your people opt to continue buying products of foreign companies, that aren't made domestically. Anyways fixing that could have had the boost of improving consumer confidence in Chinese made products and result in money trickling down more of their citizens and hopefully, result in a smaller number of impoverished seniors in the future. I feel all the aggressive posturing is just going to result in a ton of people pulling out and then standing by, while they await the population bomb going off.
Saudis to, who are cozying up to Israel to form a common front against Iran.
Maybe their is pan-Islamic sentiment amongst the common people, but the leaders of the states don't seem to care that much. China is to powerful to confront on the issue, and there are always more pressing geopolitical concerns.
Edit: I'll also add the issue of "internal matters", or more really the idea that a government cannot be called out for what it does in its own borders is all the rage right now. China doesn't want to invade the Middle East and eliminate Islam, they want control over what they consider their land. I doubt any of the authoritarian shit stains across the globe care, cause they want the ability to do the same if push comes to shove.
Iran does have a thing for supporting Shi'a uprisings in many states, so their interests are not strictly contained to their own land. Not that I see them going out on a limb for a very small minority in such a powerful, distant country anyway, but you can't put them in the same group as the basically secular dictators happy to control their Sunni-majority states.
We're entering into the final stretch before we get the first major decision by Biden on Afghanistan. The US and the Taliban are still negotiating over their differences about things such as whether or not attacks on checkpoints by the Taliban are permitted, and if the CIA gets to keep its militias.
DOHA, Qatar — U.S. diplomats are trying to build on parts of the peace deal made with the Taliban last year, specifically the classified portions that outlined what military actions — on both sides — were supposed to be prohibited under the signed agreement, according to American, Afghan and Taliban officials.
The negotiations, which have been quietly underway for months, have morphed into the Biden administration’s last-ditch diplomatic effort to achieve a reduction in violence, which could enable the United States to still exit the country should broader peace talks fail to yield progress in the coming weeks.
Interesting tidbit in that story, apparently the Taliban keep record of US and Afghan government operations (not distinguishing between the two), with breakdown of Taliban casualties, civilian casualties, and even property damage. The NYT got to look at it.
Posts
Elki, thank you for saying in three lines what I seemed to have failed to express in as many, probably more, posts.
Blinkim is very concerned that the people behind the violent coup are in trouble.
Since March 27, there have been widespread reports on social media of Russian armor and artillery massing on the Ukrainian border (which is also Russia's unofficial border with the unrecognized Donetsk People's Republic). The Russian Army held a military exercise near the border in the Southern Military District which ended on March 23; it appears those troops did not return to their barracks. (NYT) On March 31, the U.S. Army's European Command raised its threat level to "Imminent Crisis" (Stars & Stripes) On April 1, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry accused Russia of systemic escalation unseen in recent years. (MFA)
Yesterday, President Biden spoke to President Zelensky and affirmed America's commitment to Ukrainian territorial integrity. (AFP) On the same day, Russia issued a warning to NATO not to deploy troops to Ukraine. (AFP)
Russia may be escalating in hopes of winning Ukrainian concessions over Crimea's water supply, which Ukraine controls. It has been kept cut off since the Russian invasion in 2014, and the peninsula is now experiencing an acute water shortage made worse by an ongoing drought.
I doubt we'll see NATO troops on the ground. I could easily believe large arm sales/ aid.
Since Ukraine is not a member of NATO none of the nations of NATO are going to be particularly antsy about staging up to a full scale war in defense of a non-member.
On the other hand many of the Eastern members of NATO are going to want to do whatever they can to dissuade Russia from more movement like this.
So arms sales training, and whatever covert or Intel support can be provided.
According to this article from Al-Jazeera:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/3/14/bolivia-ex-interim-president-anez-appears-in-court-after-arrest
So this doesn't seem like it's just some random ask.
True. Biden is an unknown since most of his career has been on legislation, and that's threatening. Obama is the man that they felt they could openly call "a p***y"* in official communications, and Trump just did what they asked for the price of some belly rubs. Biden though, is a political pragmatist, so is hard to know what he could do.
*Bad faith actors see good faith assumptions as weakness, which is why they don't deserve it.
Corruption is the go to charge for a reason! Because they were probably corrupt and it is always plausible
Also, Biden came up in the 80's when the USSR was imploding so there is the question how much he believes in "the red menace".
Alternately, It's possible that Putin thinks Biden is too old and feeble to handle his brinksmanship and he can just muscle the ukraine into submission, which would be a huge mistake if Biden intends for Europe to have any faith in America going forward..
Yes, this meeting is about China, but not on the way that people expect. The current confrontation isn't merely a military one, but political and economical. This meeting is about trying to get a technological edge by muscling China out of the superconductor sector:
Of course, there's also the talk of joint sanctions, but before any major confrontation, having critical components not depending on China is a good start. For that matter, India is also trying to get as big of a piece of that market as possible:
Anez is arguably culpable for multiple mass murders. Just how brutal the crackdown post coup got never got much time in American media for obvious reasons.
Biden is famously hawkish, its not really that mysterious.
I'll see if I can dig up the article, but a few years back they got into a spat with a major computer component manufacturer that is based in the US and did something to make it harder for them to sell their products in China, it was an outright ban. Most of the Chinese that were interviewed about it, said they'd still go through the extra hassle to get those computer components because they felt the quality was worth it and said they didn't trust their domestic companies to produce something good quality. It wasn't that they believed their fellow citizens to be incapable, it was that they didn't trust the people running the plants and companies, to not fuck them over because they'd likely cut a shit ton of corners to produce something to justify taking the money, that still couldn't ethically justify taking the money they were charging. I mean, I rail quite a bit about how shitty US megacorps are, but I gather their level of bullshit pales in comparison to the level of bullshit that China's state own businesses put out.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Biden famously argued against intervention in Libya while he was VP, as an easy counter-example. He also argued against troop increases in Afghanistan during Obama's adminstration. Biden's stances on all sorts of things have shifted over the years in all sorts of ways. Even on foreign policy he's rarely been consistently "hawkish" or "dovish". Saying he's specifically this or that is generally silly.
Well, the big news not covered here is China and Iran singing a 25 year cooperation agreement:
So this is pretty much going to take a while to resolve.
These sanctions that Biden has continued are a foreign policy failure. Not only has he failed to get Iran back into the JCPOA, but he's also created an environment that has pushed them further into the arms of a country that will enable and encourage Iranian authoritarianism rather than reform and social liberalisation.
Well, the negotiations for the JCPOA are ongoing, so not quite as much of a failure as you suggest
The sanctions are noted by many experts as being a barrier to the deal getting made in the first place! We have the Chinese government signing extensive FP deals with the Iranian gov and clearly there is an issue there where the US has failed to go back on it's massively stupid drop out of the JCPOA, it's failed to get Iran back into the deal. We shall see whether the deal does come about but I have to say so far it looks very disappointing.
IF the US wanted to get back into the JCPOA, the play was to inmediatly apologize to Iran and unilaterally revoking sanctions without expecting nothing since it was the US that broke the JCPOA on the first place and hope that Iran still desired to play ball.
But turns out that the JCPOA, and hell, the Middle East, is not as important these days, as seen by the great pivot to the Pacific. And let's be honest, no US President will do that. So that's it. With energy independance, why the US should care about the Persian Gulf? People complained about The Wars for Oil, but now it doesn't matter.
The deal is happening mainly to bypass U.S. sanctions. It's specifically aimed at weakening America's hands in the negotiations. So you could say that sanctions are delivering at least one kind of deal.
It's also possible that Iran is reading the tea leaves on the world powers; china is on the rise and isn't going to give a shit about them having nukes or not a well as being simply too big of a market for most countries to isolate.
All of which could have been avoided if trump had left well enough alone or if biden could have taken the hit on restoring obama's deal under the guise of cleaning up after trump's shitshow.
The Iranians don't need encouragement to cut a deal with China. And Iran doesn't want to not be able to deal with europe and the west in general.
To be fair, everybody, from countries to companies, is going to eventually have to pick a side. The eventual fragmentation of the global marketplace is very well underway. Geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmen has an article on TIME Magazine about companies like Nike and H&M trying to ride the line and getting burned for it: And the next hot button issue is the 2022 Winter Olympics:
The fracture of globalization was unthinkable barely 5 years ago. Now is a very real and very likely possibility. Also, the Cold War paradigm suits Washington just fine. The free world vs. the red menace. So, this is going to happen.
Honestly, a huge wildcard right now, thanks to the Chinese government not being honest with data. Is how the demographics bomb is going to change things. According to the numbers China releases, they are likely hitting an overall population decline by either the end of this decade or early next decade. That said, some how theorized their numbers are bullshit curated to make China look strong and that China might actually hit population decline in the middle of the last decade. The various factories and plants being moved out could be really bad for China because there is plenty of indication that the money those things brought in didn't make it to that many. So China is potentially looking at having a massive impoverished senior population that can't really work the jobs they have available. Also we've seen how well things have worked out for others when the economy goes into the shitter and the young get stuck competing with the elderly for jobs.
I strongly think Xi misread things and assumed he had a far stronger hand than he actually had. Like he assumed that as long as he didn't outright start a war or kick foreign companies out, that he could do also sorts of shitty things and they'd stick around for the money. Also have to wonder if he is somewhat victim to be a kool-aid drinker himself. It's real easy to walk yourself into a bad spot, if you buy the very BS that your side was shilling.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
The EU did. They tried to keep the deal afloat. But no EU company was willing to lose access to the US market AND the dollar system, so that was that.
Xi only cares about keeping in power at all costs. Which mean that is very likely that his only play is to quadruple down to keep the show running as long as possible.
Good hypothesis here. China needs to do something soon before the population bomb goes off or they are screwed longterm. Hence, all the aggressive posturing and actions since Xi .
Uyghurs are mostly Sunni so they can mostly burn as far as Iran is concerned.
Anyways, seems to me that Xi's best play would have been a purge of the corporate corruption in all the state own companies and then trying to rehabilitate China's image there. it's a bad sign when your citizens don't want products made by your nation's companies and are willing to pay more for foreign made products. That can easily lead to the double whammy where companies start pulling out and then you start losing money not just from those plants being gone, but also because your people opt to continue buying products of foreign companies, that aren't made domestically. Anyways fixing that could have had the boost of improving consumer confidence in Chinese made products and result in money trickling down more of their citizens and hopefully, result in a smaller number of impoverished seniors in the future. I feel all the aggressive posturing is just going to result in a ton of people pulling out and then standing by, while they await the population bomb going off.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
You know who else are real fucking pally with China? The government of Pakistan. And they deffo are Sunni Muslims, but they don't give a fuck either.
Maybe their is pan-Islamic sentiment amongst the common people, but the leaders of the states don't seem to care that much. China is to powerful to confront on the issue, and there are always more pressing geopolitical concerns.
Edit: I'll also add the issue of "internal matters", or more really the idea that a government cannot be called out for what it does in its own borders is all the rage right now. China doesn't want to invade the Middle East and eliminate Islam, they want control over what they consider their land. I doubt any of the authoritarian shit stains across the globe care, cause they want the ability to do the same if push comes to shove.
I'm actually a bit surprised about that what with both of those governments having claims to Kashmir territory.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/04/world/asia/afghanistan-reduction-violence-biden.html