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Every [Economy] evolves to housing, even when it is about cars

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Posts

  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    Doodmann wrote: »
    I know this is probably more related to coins and china but, it's pretty funny to watch the market tank exactly 4 months after republicans are out of office.

    I think it is related to Democrats getting elected. They simply don't have the trust of the rich, so the rich pull back on investments because they shit their pants about the possibility of tax rises.

  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    edited May 2021
    Doodmann wrote: »
    I know this is probably more related to coins and china but, it's pretty funny to watch the market tank exactly 4 months after republicans are out of office.

    I think it is related to Democrats getting elected. They simply don't have the trust of the rich, so the rich pull back on investments because they shit their pants about the possibility of tax rises.

    Yes the markets have really freaked out about Dems and have corrected.

    eckyuj9n0coi.png


    God I wish they would correct so I can take some cash I have sitting around for investment and put it in some stuff for long term gains.

    Edit: Seriously outside the NASDAQ pretty much all the major indices are up almost double digits this year.

    Rich people will get richer no matter what.

    Mazzyx on
    u7stthr17eud.png
  • Al_watAl_wat Registered User regular
    Its probably a lot more complicated than that, although fear of higher taxes may factor in somewhat.

    I've seen a lot of commentary about worries of inflation in the last couple of weeks.

  • GoumindongGoumindong Registered User regular
    No one is worried about inflation. Inflation worries are rich people telling newspapers they’re worried about inflation because they want policy changes

    wbBv3fj.png
  • OghulkOghulk Tinychat Janitor TinychatRegistered User regular
    "Inflation is up 4.2%!!"*

    *Year over year with the data entering the deflationary dip caused by the pandemic. Seasonally adjusted inflation is up 0.8%

    No one that has money on the issue is worried about inflation.

  • notyanotya Registered User regular
    Goumindong wrote: »
    No one is worried about inflation. Inflation worries are rich people telling newspapers they’re worried about inflation because they want policy changes

    This is certainly the stance of every article I read. "No need to worry, it's just gonna be temporary"

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Doodmann wrote: »
    I know this is probably more related to coins and china but, it's pretty funny to watch the market tank exactly 4 months after republicans are out of office.

    I think it is related to Democrats getting elected. They simply don't have the trust of the rich, so the rich pull back on investments because they shit their pants about the possibility of tax rises.

    Stock market and GDP performance has been better under Democrats than Republicans going back to Truman.

    Even further back, actually, but reality before FDR just isn't really comparable. The past is a different country, they do things differently there.

  • schussschuss Registered User regular
    Oghulk wrote: »
    "Inflation is up 4.2%!!"*

    *Year over year with the data entering the deflationary dip caused by the pandemic. Seasonally adjusted inflation is up 0.8%

    No one that has money on the issue is worried about inflation.

    Not to mention it's based on CPI measures impacted by supply chain disruptions that are driving up prices.

  • KrieghundKrieghund Registered User regular
    I think I was the one that dipped the market. You see I opened an Ameritrade account and bout some stuff, and the universe noticed, so boop, down with all of it, lol.

  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    Goumindong wrote: »
    No one is worried about inflation. Inflation worries are rich people telling newspapers they’re worried about inflation because they want policy changes

    I think the consensus is that the “some economists” and/or “some democrats” telling Biden to be worried about inflation is just Larry Summers

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Goumindong wrote: »
    No one is worried about inflation. Inflation worries are rich people telling newspapers they’re worried about inflation because they want policy changes

    My dad constantly talks about his worries about inflation, which he gets from reading the "very smart" brand of right-wing news sources. The fact that those sources keep talking about it and I keep hearing about it is how I know inflation is not a problem.

  • GoumindongGoumindong Registered User regular
    Goumindong wrote: »
    No one is worried about inflation. Inflation worries are rich people telling newspapers they’re worried about inflation because they want policy changes

    I think the consensus is that the “some economists” and/or “some democrats” telling Biden to be worried about inflation is just Larry Summers

    I don’t think Summers is worried about inflation.

    wbBv3fj.png
  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    edited May 2021
    At any given point there are a lot of rich assholes e
    banking on cash flows that lose value with inflation (ie your principle balance on a loan doesn’t increase but your supply of money does) and/or have positions that lose if rates go up and they have the means and egos to make everyone hear about it

    Captain Inertia on
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    I'd love to see enough inflation to merit getting a 3% COLA since that is literally higher than my mortgage rate now.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    It's more basic then that, as Gounmindong says. "Inflation" is the same as "government debt". It's a buzzword the anti-government/anti-regulation/etc conservative side uses to attack policies they dislike.

    Basically, think of how every time left-wing parties want to have the government do something by spending money rather then just cutting taxes the right-wingers suddenly discover they care deeply about the national debt. Caring about inflation is the same phenomenon.

  • PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    It's more basic then that, as Gounmindong says. "Inflation" is the same as "government debt". It's a buzzword the anti-government/anti-regulation/etc conservative side uses to attack policies they dislike.

    Basically, think of how every time left-wing parties want to have the government do something by spending money rather then just cutting taxes the right-wingers suddenly discover they care deeply about the national debt. Caring about inflation is the same phenomenon.

    In theory, there's a level of inflation that would cause issues. As a practical matter it's not happening.

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  • notyanotya Registered User regular
    Polaritie wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    It's more basic then that, as Gounmindong says. "Inflation" is the same as "government debt". It's a buzzword the anti-government/anti-regulation/etc conservative side uses to attack policies they dislike.

    Basically, think of how every time left-wing parties want to have the government do something by spending money rather then just cutting taxes the right-wingers suddenly discover they care deeply about the national debt. Caring about inflation is the same phenomenon.

    In theory, there's a level of inflation that would cause issues. As a practical matter it's not happening.

    Everyone in here has a lot of faith that the Fed is in the driver's seat.

    I'm not going to say I think it's likely we'll see high sustained inflation but as far as I can tell, the entire world is in uncharted territory in a million different ways.

  • HydropoloHydropolo Registered User regular
    I mean, inflation CAN be a problem. If inflation is going up and my salary isn't, that's a problem. But it would have to go up for quite a while for it to be an issue. Inflation is usually an issue for the poor and the rich, and a big boon for the middle class (see: people likely to have cars and houses but not own them outright).

  • SimpsoniaSimpsonia Registered User regular
    edited May 2021
    notya wrote: »
    Polaritie wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    It's more basic then that, as Gounmindong says. "Inflation" is the same as "government debt". It's a buzzword the anti-government/anti-regulation/etc conservative side uses to attack policies they dislike.

    Basically, think of how every time left-wing parties want to have the government do something by spending money rather then just cutting taxes the right-wingers suddenly discover they care deeply about the national debt. Caring about inflation is the same phenomenon.

    In theory, there's a level of inflation that would cause issues. As a practical matter it's not happening.

    Everyone in here has a lot of faith that the Fed is in the driver's seat.

    I'm not going to say I think it's likely we'll see high sustained inflation but as far as I can tell, the entire world is in uncharted territory in a million different ways.

    It has nothing to do with the Fed. It has everything to do with the realities baked into our current economy. Inflation is driven by pure consumer demand. Income inequalities going to the top of the top for the last 40 years has greatly suppressed the ability of everyone below them to earn enough money to substantially drive enough demand to make more than temporary spikes to inflation.

    Now what could drive some medium-term inflation is if all these employers struggling to hire good employees start an arms race with wages, then we might actually see some uptick. I for one would welcome that with open arms, because then a lot more people might be able to earn enough to actually secure the necessities to live (housing and food).

    Simpsonia on
  • PeccaviPeccavi Registered User regular
    Krieghund wrote: »
    I think I was the one that dipped the market. You see I opened an Ameritrade account and bout some stuff, and the universe noticed, so boop, down with all of it, lol.

    This is why I'm expecting the housing market is going to crash in July.

  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    Inflation is a real thing. It hasn't happened for a while but in the '70s it caused a lot of problems. There's no reason why it couldn't happen again.

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Inflation is a real thing. It hasn't happened for a while but in the '70s it caused a lot of problems. There's no reason why it couldn't happen again.

    This is true. The risks are asymmetrical, though. Keeping rates too high to prevent fears of inflation rather than actual inflation means immiserating millions of people with slower wage growth, worse job prospects, and everything else.

    Meanwhile runaway inflation has not materialized in two generations, and the upper bound on interest rates is infinity. Creating inflation is something the Fed struggles with (especially with a hostile Congress), but killing it is right in their wheelhouse.

  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    edited May 2021
    aogvobps6lyf.png

    Yeah “The Great Inflation” was such a large aberration that it distorts folks views on the size and danger of inflation

    There’s also lots of folks entering retirement who would have been young workers during this time who still have lived memories from the 70s price inflation and 80s interest rate response

    Captain Inertia on
  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    The massive interest rates of the early '80s caused my parents a great deal of problems as their affordable mortgage suddenly became unaffordable. Fortunately they didn't lose the house, but they had to work a lot more hours than they were planning to.

    I'm also wondering if we really have such a low rate of inflation as we are being told. I constantly hear about the inflated prices of education, healthcare and housing, and the reduced power of the average wage. Just because consumer goods have remained stable in price, do we really have low inflation? Or is it just a trick of a spreadsheet?

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    edited May 2021
    The massive interest rates of the early '80s caused my parents a great deal of problems as their affordable mortgage suddenly became unaffordable. Fortunately they didn't lose the house, but they had to work a lot more hours than they were planning to.

    I'm also wondering if we really have such a low rate of inflation as we are being told. I constantly hear about the inflated prices of education, healthcare and housing, and the reduced power of the average wage. Just because consumer goods have remained stable in price, do we really have low inflation? Or is it just a trick of a spreadsheet?

    Housing is very location dependent, University education costs are only recently impacting a majority of kids/ families (and definitely a broader social problem, but tuition cost rises are meaningless if you don't attend), and health care cost inflation has actually been on a downward trend for awhile now. I think it hit a 6 decade low in 2015 (thanks, Obama) and has been hovering around ~+1 point higher than general CPI. Costs aren't really going up much across the board, it's just that wages aren't going up at all.

    vzcwjh87ux77.png

    moniker on
  • PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    The massive interest rates of the early '80s caused my parents a great deal of problems as their affordable mortgage suddenly became unaffordable. Fortunately they didn't lose the house, but they had to work a lot more hours than they were planning to.

    I'm also wondering if we really have such a low rate of inflation as we are being told. I constantly hear about the inflated prices of education, healthcare and housing, and the reduced power of the average wage. Just because consumer goods have remained stable in price, do we really have low inflation? Or is it just a trick of a spreadsheet?

    I think that's more unchecked capitalism driving prices up because it can, rather than the global devaluation that is inflation.

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  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    edited May 2021
    Also as an aside the page I got that graph from is from the fedhistory site which is run by the St Louis Fed but before I looked that up, I was sure it was some libertarian anti-fed/pro-gold blog because the article is ..... well, very anti-fed and wistful for Bretton Woods....

    Captain Inertia on
  • DoodmannDoodmann Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    The massive interest rates of the early '80s caused my parents a great deal of problems as their affordable mortgage suddenly became unaffordable. Fortunately they didn't lose the house, but they had to work a lot more hours than they were planning to.

    I'm also wondering if we really have such a low rate of inflation as we are being told. I constantly hear about the inflated prices of education, healthcare and housing, and the reduced power of the average wage. Just because consumer goods have remained stable in price, do we really have low inflation? Or is it just a trick of a spreadsheet?

    Housing is very location dependent, University education costs are only recently impacting a majority of kids/ families (and definitely a broader social problem, but tuition cost rises are meaningless if you don't attend), and health care cost inflation has actually been on a downward trend for awhile now. I think it hit a 6 decade low in 2015 (thanks, Obama) and has been hovering around ~+1 point higher than general CPI. Costs aren't really going up much across the board, it's just that wages aren't going up at all.

    Even though housing is locally specific it has universally pulled away from affordability, napkin math in the past was 2-3 time household income, now it's regularly 5-8.

    Whippy wrote: »
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    Sometimes I sell my stuff on Ebay
  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    The massive interest rates of the early '80s caused my parents a great deal of problems as their affordable mortgage suddenly became unaffordable. Fortunately they didn't lose the house, but they had to work a lot more hours than they were planning to.

    I'm also wondering if we really have such a low rate of inflation as we are being told. I constantly hear about the inflated prices of education, healthcare and housing, and the reduced power of the average wage. Just because consumer goods have remained stable in price, do we really have low inflation? Or is it just a trick of a spreadsheet?

    Inflation is measured by the change in price of a basket of goods, so inflation is inflation is inflation. But how much you feel it depends on what the individual goods are doing and how much you're using them.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    edited May 2021
    Also as an aside the page I got that graph from is from the fedhistory site which is run by the St Louis Fed but before I looked that up, I was sure it was some libertarian anti-fed/pro-gold blog because the article is ..... well, very anti-fed and wistful for Bretton Woods....

    You can make images from FRED itself. Edit the chart to do whatever, and then on the bottom left under Share Link there is 'image short url'. You can either use that directly or open it in another tab and download the .PNG It is honestly the best site, and more government agencies need to poach their people and make other data accessible. The Census Bureau is crap.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=E9Bd

    n0p2losegs89.png

    moniker on
  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    edited May 2021
    Doodmann wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    The massive interest rates of the early '80s caused my parents a great deal of problems as their affordable mortgage suddenly became unaffordable. Fortunately they didn't lose the house, but they had to work a lot more hours than they were planning to.

    I'm also wondering if we really have such a low rate of inflation as we are being told. I constantly hear about the inflated prices of education, healthcare and housing, and the reduced power of the average wage. Just because consumer goods have remained stable in price, do we really have low inflation? Or is it just a trick of a spreadsheet?

    Housing is very location dependent, University education costs are only recently impacting a majority of kids/ families (and definitely a broader social problem, but tuition cost rises are meaningless if you don't attend), and health care cost inflation has actually been on a downward trend for awhile now. I think it hit a 6 decade low in 2015 (thanks, Obama) and has been hovering around ~+1 point higher than general CPI. Costs aren't really going up much across the board, it's just that wages aren't going up at all.

    Even though housing is locally specific it has universally pulled away from affordability, napkin math in the past was 2-3 time household income, now it's regularly 5-8.

    Median home prices are 10x median incomes in many metros now....from what I can tell this is really only sustained by folks who are selling one home and rolling equity to the next, thus putting the mortgage balance at 3x-5x incomes...[edited out my last comment because it implies some wildly incorrect things about demand/price interaction]

    Captain Inertia on
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    edited May 2021
    I'm not meaning to dismiss those things as not problems or not meriting their own intervention to address them. They totally are. But look at the chart I posted again. Median household income peaked around 1999/2000 and only recently rose above it. I checked a slightly different measure on FRED which goes up to last year and it's literally a 10% rise in real terms over a span of 20 years. That's a 0.5% raise per year over inflation. Which is just nothing. If wages kept up with productivity housing would be more affordable as a percent of income because everyone would have a lot more income.

    And bear in mind this is Median Income. It is just pure maths and takes the socio- out of socio-economics. Because think of how much the population has changed over those two decades. We are the most educated and most productive workforce in the country's history and, aside from the rich, we are collectively barely making anymore than when I started posting on these boards via AOL.

    moniker on
  • SimpsoniaSimpsonia Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    I'm not meaning to dismiss those things as not problems or not meriting their own intervention to address them. They totally are. But look at the chart I posted again. Median household income peaked around 1999/2000 and only recently rose above it. I checked a slightly different measure on FRED which goes up to last year and it's literally a 10% rise in real terms over a span of 20 years. That's a 0.5% raise per year over inflation. Which is just nothing. If wages kept up with productivity housing would be more affordable as a percent of income because everyone would have a lot more income.

    And bear in mind this is Median Income. It is just pure maths and takes the socio- out of socio-economics. Because think of how much the population has changed over those two decades. We are the most educated and most productive workforce in the country's history and, aside from the rich, we are collectively barely making anymore than when I started posting on these boards via AOL.

    I think this would only partially be true. If wages progressed inline with productivity, I think we'd have seen a similar spike in demand, which would have driven housing inflation in those years. The current housing boom is essentially the same thing. Instead of people having more money to spend on housing, the rates are lower, which leads to the same outcome, which has driven a huge demand for housing which has lead to very high housing inflation (in general). There are a lot of other factors that need to be solved at local levels such as zoning, NIMBYism, affordable housing that would need to be enacted to offset increased demand. While theory says that the increased demand should drive increased supply, we can see that is definitely not true in many geographic locales (typically major metros where demand is the highest).

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Simpsonia wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    I'm not meaning to dismiss those things as not problems or not meriting their own intervention to address them. They totally are. But look at the chart I posted again. Median household income peaked around 1999/2000 and only recently rose above it. I checked a slightly different measure on FRED which goes up to last year and it's literally a 10% rise in real terms over a span of 20 years. That's a 0.5% raise per year over inflation. Which is just nothing. If wages kept up with productivity housing would be more affordable as a percent of income because everyone would have a lot more income.

    And bear in mind this is Median Income. It is just pure maths and takes the socio- out of socio-economics. Because think of how much the population has changed over those two decades. We are the most educated and most productive workforce in the country's history and, aside from the rich, we are collectively barely making anymore than when I started posting on these boards via AOL.

    I think this would only partially be true. If wages progressed inline with productivity, I think we'd have seen a similar spike in demand, which would have driven housing inflation in those years. The current housing boom is essentially the same thing. Instead of people having more money to spend on housing, the rates are lower, which leads to the same outcome, which has driven a huge demand for housing which has lead to very high housing inflation (in general). There are a lot of other factors that need to be solved at local levels such as zoning, NIMBYism, affordable housing that would need to be enacted to offset increased demand. While theory says that the increased demand should drive increased supply, we can see that is definitely not true in many geographic locales (typically major metros where demand is the highest).

    Housing costs are also mostly a result of the big huge giant hole of construction starts following the housing collapse. It only just got back to ~normal before the Pandemic and needs to run above normal for a decade to make up the lost inventory. It's all complicated and interconnected, of course, but still the main thing is a lack of wage growth rather than inflation.

  • OrcaOrca Also known as Espressosaurus WrexRegistered User regular
    Higher wages only equal more accessible housing if housing supply increases.

    See also: everywhere on the west coast, NYC, London, etc.

  • ButtersButters A glass of some milks Registered User regular
    Orca wrote: »
    Higher wages only equal more accessible housing if housing supply increases.

    See also: everywhere on the west coast, NYC, London, etc.

    Theoretically higher wages should mean more people can afford a new home build but that's only relevant to regions that are easy to build in.

    i.e. none of the areas you mentioned...

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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Massively overpriced luxury goods seller briefly becomes world's richest man, as "selling useless shit to the tiny percent of ultra-rich" becomes about equal in value as "selling shit to literally everybody else."

    The update where it mentions that Bezos surpassed Arnault again to become world's richest man notes that both of their net worths increased by over a billion in less than a week since the article was first written. The rich get richer.

  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    https://www.inc.com/justin-bariso/desperate-for-staff-this-ice-cream-shop-owner-made-an-unusual-decision-its-a-lesson-in-emotional-intelligence.html

    Spoiler: he increased wages from 7.25 to 15 and suddenly got lots of applications.

    I want to think this article is being sarcastic in its praise but sadly I don't think it is.

  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    While we were out yesterday we noticed on of the restaurants near us is now advertising $20 an hour minimum for all positions. It is interesting watching the pressure kick in real time.

    u7stthr17eud.png
  • OghulkOghulk Tinychat Janitor TinychatRegistered User regular
    Bipartisan group including Manchin, Sinema, Romney, Collins, and Portman put forward a $878 billion proposal that includes a $24/ton carbon tax.

    Will be interesting to see where this goes. So long as there aren't 10 republicans the deal seems dead, so I wonder if Manchin will force the Dems to push through reconciliation this "bipartisan" bill.

    Also interesting that some Republicans are apparently onboard for a carbon tax (which harms fossil fuel companies) rather than just infrastructure spending on renewables (which doesn't directly harm them).

This discussion has been closed.