This thread is for discussion of the Middle East, North Africa, and Afghanistan/Pakistan. Afghanistan and Pakistan are notably not part of the Middle East or North Africa, but traditionally we've discussed events in those countries in these threads. While most of the discussion tends to center on politics, other aspects of the Middle East, including history or culture, are also welcome.
Credit to [Tycho?] for making these threads for the last decade.
The 2010s were a chaotic period in much of this region. The 2011 "Arab Spring" revolts led to the overthrow of the dictatorial governments of Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Yemen, and spread to numerous other countries including Bahrain and Syria. Of these countries, Tunisia is notable for having emerged with a somewhat more democratic state, and it remains such today. Other outcomes were worse.
In Egypt, a short lived experiment with democracy was aborted via a military coup against Mohammad Morsi's elected government, and a junta led by former general Abdel Fattah el-Sisi remains in power to this day. If anything, the current Egyptian regime is even more repressive than that of Hosni Mubarak, with no political freedom, no freedom of speech, and a brutal police state enforcing Sisi's rule with violence, kidnapping, and imprisonment. In terms of regional politics, the Egyptian government is allied with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and opposes Turkey and Qatar, mostly due to those nations' policy toward the Muslim Brotherhood organization.
In Syria, the Syrian Civil War happened. This resulted in the death of over half a million people, millions of refugees fleeing to countries in the region and to Europe, international involvement from various countries including the US, Turkey, Iran, Lebanon, and Russia, and general chaos. Today, most of Syria is again controlled by the government of Bashar al-Assad, while an enclave of Turkish-backed rebels exists in the northwest and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces controls most of the northeast. Aside from occasional clashes between the government and the remaining rebel enclave, the warfare in Syria has ceased. However, the war left a ruined nation behind, with many towns, villages, and cities ravaged by the fighting, an economy in tatters, and a population several million smaller than before the war (mostly due to people fleeing). Rebuilding has been slowly proceeding, but the Syrian economy's collapse in 2020, international sanctions, and the scale of the destruction have made it a slow process.
In Bahrain, the revolution was crushed by Gulf Arab militaries crossing to the small island nation to shore up the embattled government. Today the population still seethes under the monarchy, though I haven't read news of protest for some time.
In Libya, the revolution quickly escalated into a civil war and a US-led NATO campaign against the Gaddafi government. Since the government's defeat in that war, Libya has been in a state of chaos. On and off civil war between multiple factions, with varying degrees of involvement from foreign countries including the US, Turkey, the UAE, and Russia, has engulfed the country for a decade. The two largest factions have been the UN-recognized Government of National Accord in western Libya, based in Tripoli, and a rival government based in Benghazi and Tobruk. Since the peak of the conflict in 2019, however, some signs for hope have emerged. A lasting ceasefire has enabled a unity government representing both sides to be formed, at least on paper. So far this has yet to be really implemented on the ground, but nonetheless the violence has stopped and negotiations seem to be sputtering forward.
In Yemen, a ton of complicated things happened, but the basic summary is that longtime dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh resigned and a shaky transitional government was formed. However, this fully broke down in 2014, and an alliance led by the Houthi movement and former President Saleh's faction of the government took control of most of the country, including the capital, Sana'a. In 2015, Saudi Arabia and the UAE launched a war in Yemen to support the exiled former government, which eventually led to a brutal stalemate with the country being divided along north/south lines. Today, the war continues to grind on. The UAE has ceased its direct involvement, but the Saudis continue to bomb Yemen frequently, and combat between the Houthi-led northern government and the disunited southern factions is frequent. The war in Yemen has been referred to as the world's worst current humanitarian crisis.
Algeria was not among the countries directly involved in the 2011 revolutions, but in 2019 it experienced its own revolution against the regime of longtime President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Bouteflika had long been regarded as a mere figurehead (he had had a major stroke and the government was basically doing Weekend at Bernie's with him), so the revolution was less about removing him specifically and more about opposing the system behind him. While Bouteflika was made to resign, the protest movement (known as Hirak) continued to press for deeper changes to Algeria's governing system, and the struggle on the streets continues today.
Iraq, after having essentially endured two civil wars and one foreign invasion during the past 20 years, is experiencing what is probably the country's most peaceful and stable period since the US invasion. This is a low bar, however, and the country still struggles with a low-key insurgency and myriad other problems, including a rather dysfunctional government. 2019 saw massive protests in many cities in Iraq (primarily in Shia Arab regions), but they were violently put down by the government. I'm not really clear on what has been happening in Iraq over the past year or so, maybe someone could fill me in. Hopefully conditions will continue to improve and the country can start to heal from the trauma of the past two decades.
Lebanon, too, has had a rough time in recent years. The Syrian Civil War resulted in vast numbers of refugees fleeing to the small country, to the point where something like 25% of the country's population consisted of said refugees. Lebanon was directly engaged in that war in the form of Hezbollah fighting on the pro-government side. The country's financial system has been in a death spiral for the past two years, with
recent news only looking worse. Beirut suffered a
massive explosion last year, leaving a couple hundred thousand people homeless and causing many deaths and injuries. Currently a caretaker government is begging the political factions to form an actual government after many months of failing to do so.
Saudi Arabia continues to be a mostly pernicious influence in matters beyond their borders and a repressive monarchy within them. Mohammad Bin Salman's regime has been especially violent and arguably erratic, with such accomplishments as the war on Yemen, the kidnapping of the previous Lebanese Prime Minister, ridiculously overambitious development projects, absurdly huge arms deals with the US, and of course the murder of journalist Jamal Kashoggi in Turkey. Saudi Arabia has been engaged in a power struggle with Iran in the region for many years now, which is one of the major factors contributing to the Middle East's political problems. This has most notably manifested in Syria and Yemen, but in more subtle ways has affected politics in Lebanon and Iraq as well.
The UAE has in recent years pursued a surprisingly aggressive foreign policy for such a small nation, from supporting Haftar's Libyan National Army in that country to establishing ports in autonomous regions of Somalia to backing separatist factions in southern Yemen, against the wishes of their ostensible Saudi allies. However, the Emirates exited Yemen relatively recently. Generally they back authoritarian regimes, and oppose democratization, especially opposing Islamist factions like the Muslim Brotherhood and its spin-offs. This usually puts the UAE in opposition to Turkey and Qatar, and mostly on the same side as Saudi Arabia.
Qatar has often pursued a foreign policy at odds with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, much to their consternation. The Saudis and Emiratis imposed a dumb blockade on Qatar in 2017, in an attempt to get the Qataris to stop backing Muslim Brotherhood-aligned factions and to stop annoying them with the news station al-Jazeera, but eventually gave up on that in 2021 after having failed to achieve much of anything.
Kuwait, Oman, Jordan, and Morocco are also countries in this region, but to be honest I have no idea what's going on in any of those places. Oman's longtime monarch died a year or two ago, but I think that was the last time I saw that country appear in the English language news. Given what tends be reported on in Western media, the fact that I haven't been reading about events in these countries probably means that things are going better there than in most of the other places discussed in this post.
As current news demonstrates, the situation in Israel and Palestine continues to be terrible. Israel has had numerous elections over the last two years as its parties repeatedly fail to form a lasting government, but longtime Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has remained throughout, and overall Israeli politics seems to lurch further and further to the right. Settlement expansion into East Jerusalem and the West Bank continues, and the Gaza Strip remains blockaded by Israel. The past couple of days have seen violence erupt between Israel and Gaza and between Jews and Arabs in Israeli cities, triggered by Israeli settlers forcing Arabs in an East Jerusalem neighborhood out of their homes and by a raid on the al-Aqsa Mosque by Israeli security forces. During the Trump era, Israel had an even more steadfast ally in Washington than usual. Washington recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights (in contravention of international law), moved its embassy to Jerusalem, and persuaded three Arab states (UAE, Bahrain, and Sudan) to recognize Israel and normalize relations with it. It remains to be seen how the new government in Washington will approach the issue of US-Israel relations, and this current crisis might produce some answers to that question. My guess is basically the same as usual.
In Iran, elections approach. The Trump administration's violation of the JCPOA (the anti-nuclear proliferation treaty negotiated by the Obama administration) and reimposition of punishing sanctions have caused major damage to the country's economy. I've seen concern in some circles that a more hardline faction may return to power, and that reentering the treaty may become more difficult even if Washington proves more open to doing so, but Iranian politics is not a subject I know much about. The country saw some major protests in 2019, but those were violently crushed. Iran is regionally aligned with the Syrian government, the Houthi (northern) government in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and some political and paramilitary factions in Iraq.
In Turkey, I honestly have no idea what's been going on in recent times, maybe somebody could fill us in on that. They supported the UN-recognized government in Libya during that conflict (enraging Egypt, the UAE, Greece, and France in the process), and continue to occupy Idlib province in Syria. They continue to pursue an independent and sometimes assertive foreign policy as a regional power, balancing relations with the US, EU, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. In the recent war between Armenia and Azerbaijan they were strongly supportive of Azerbaijan, though not directly involved as far as I'm aware.
Lastly, Afghanistan continues to be engulfed in violence. After 20 years of war, the US, under the Trump administration, decided to withdraw from the country this May. The Biden administration changed the date to September 11th (sigh) but maintained the decision to withdraw. The current status of the government in Afghanistan could charitably be described as "fragile." Taliban rebels control wide swathes of the country, and the thinly stretched Afghan National Security Forces struggle to do more than hold on to the cities, even having difficulty with that at times. Meanwhile, the government itself is riven with division and riddled with corruption, and could in some parts of the country be more accurately described as an alliance of militias and warlords than a centralized state apparatus. The US withdrawal will likely only worsen the government's position on the battlefield. Afghanistan has been at war for over 40 years now, and peace seems nowhere on the horizon.
Good news sources:
For news about the Middle East and North Africa, al-Jazeera is always a good standby for breaking news. It covers many countries in depth that get under-reported by the Western media, and is very reliable.
Al-Monitor is also a great source of news and analysis about the Middle East. I've learned more about Middle Eastern politics from that website than from any other single source. You get a lot of varied perspectives there, and the articles go into greater depth than most pieces on al-Jazeera English or in the foreign sections of US papers.
For Afghanistan,
Afghan Analyst's Network is a great website for news and insight. What's especially nice about this group is that they report on aspects of Afghanistan aside from the war there, which is rare in the English language press. They also go incredibly in depth into subjects that other outlets might not even skim over. Definitely worth a look for anyone who wants to know more about the country.
The New York Times has also done a pretty good job reporting on Afghanistan in recent years, much more so than any other American newspaper or network.
And Tolonews, the largest Afghan news network, has an
English language website that is worth checking if one wants to keep up to date.
Posts
This feels relevant
(Official twitter account of the IDF)
Morrocco is currently running its own colonial occupation, its just in the middle of a desert and involves a lot fewer people so no one cares as much. Its mostly a cold civil war at this point but occasionally flares up.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Sahara_conflict
Sounds like more than firing artillery.
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
https://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/84507
The state understands pretty well that what they do is indefensible, and make sure it's not seen. He was shot for the same reason journalists are systematically targeted by Israeli army, police, and armed settlers.
The author is a researcher for Media Matters for America.
He was shot in the face with a rubber bullet. The footage he was capturing in that short video is hard to really tell what's going on but those don't look like soldiers in uniform. The fuck are some of them wearing track suits for?
edit - sorry, linking and stuff is a pain on mobile. That entire page is full of depressing stuff about how the Israeli military and police are behaving.
Its like saying some of the theoretical throne claimants in Byzantium or the English War of the Roses had a choice.
“Hey dude, we’re giving you a choice, you can resist and we’ll throw you in a dungeon for the rest of your life, or you can go along with us and we’ll just blind and castrate you and you can go free. Your choice, man, choose wisely.”
Difficulties for Armenia - Russia has been busy massing their forces by Ukraine, ostensibly for another push into Crimea. Turkey has generally abstained from the messier parts of MENA politics so it can lend support to Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan itself thoroughly crushed Armenia's military during the last war. Armenia is also a few weeks away from an election and IIRC they don't actually have a working government at the moment. Iran is also unlikely to provide any significant support - the loss of its spy chief has crippled much of its intelligence and funding networks and they likely won't recover for awhile, and also Iran is already busy trying to fund its pet militias in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and now Palestine, since things are kicking off in that area again.
Difficulties for Azerbaijan - Unlike the last war, Israel is currently preoccupied with the Palestinians so there's unlikely to be any Israeli support. Also, since Nagorno-Karabakh was de jure Azerbaijani territory, they could at least use the excuse of liberating their own territory to justify the attack. There's very little that can be used as a justification for attacking into Armenia proper besides "try and stop us."
Russia's in a bit of a bind - if they don't push back against Azerbaijan, there's no way to interpret this as anything other than an abandonment of Armenia (and possibly the CSTO). If they do push back but can't mobilize concrete responses, that means Turkey just blatantly infringed on Russian influence and got away with it. If they do mobilize a response, that has to be diverted from Ukraine.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/14/middleeast/israel-palestinian-clashes-intl/index.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=az51S2g45Yg
For all the explanations they've made over the years about the deadly menace of stone throwing Palestinians and why it's been so necessary to shoot them dead, the Israeli police seem quite restrained here when it's settlers doing the throwing. Quite friendly and accommodating, in fact. But 10 Palestinians in the West Bank needed to die and 500 sent to the hospital.
It's hard to look at the map of Israel & Palenstine areas without coming to the conclusion the Palestinians already lost a long time ago, it just takes decades or centuries for these things to really play out to their final conclusion. It just makes me think of manifest destiny in the US, it took over two centuries for North America to go from a continent settled by countless tribes, to a nation state settled by Europeans with Native Americans a tiny minority confined to reservations.
A century from now Israel will probably exist alone, the idea of a state of Palestine will be firmly set in the past like other defunct nations that no longer exist and the Gaza strip and maybe a few scraps of territory in the West Bank will be reservations for the Palestinians that don't leave.
One hour warning for Al Jazeera to evacuate the building they share with other international press offices, as it’s about to be bombed. Another tower housing media outlets was already bombed.
Edit: according an ABC’s foreign affairs reporter, it’s also the AP’s office.
Edit 2: Middle East Eye is also using the building.
At this point we should probably be pushing for all Palesinians to get Israeli citizenship. Two-state is never going to happen, the only thing we'll ever get that way is the one and a half state model where Palestinians are under Israeli authority in ever way that is convenient for Israel, but have to fend for themselves for everything that would be inconvenient for Israel, if they're not just blocked from it entirely.
That is never going to happen either until the demographics even more strongly favour the Jewish majority. Israel will never accept anything that could even hypothetically threaten its existence as a majority Jewish state. They know once they open the lid on more Arab Israeli citizenship they won't be able to easily close it again, that's the primary reason Palestine still exists even as a hypothetical future state and why Israel will likley not try to occupy or officialy anex Gaza for a very long time to come. It's a generational game they're playing and Gaza in its current state serves its purpose as a place to put Palastinians/Arabs they don't want in Israeli society, officially making it part of Israel and adopting its people would completly defeat the point.
The status quo will not change as long as it benefits Israel to keep it, that's not going to change for generations.
Edit - Like, it absolutely has to defend itself. But THIS right here? This specific action right here had shit all to do with defense. I mean what the fuck are they thinking over there?!
No quantity of complicated justifies genocide. Israel is a rogue nation killing it's neighborhood minorities right now.
I thought this to until I started paying closer attention. Cable news and center to right wingers will try to sell people on how complicated it is and then sell billions of dollars in weapons to Israel.
The complication is that there's money to be made!
southpaw is a writer, embedded photo is a tweet thread from IDF's official twitter.
Switch - SW-7373-3669-3011
Fuck Joe Manchin
All buildings with windows are lawful military... go fuck yourself.
Edit: Half the building was residential, which only makes it worse, actually.
This amounts to a war crime, but when has Israel ever been held accountable for those?
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar