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[Sub-Saharan Africa] News and Politics Thread

13

Posts

  • cckerberoscckerberos Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    Kaputa wrote: »
    Best quote I've run into in articles on the current events in Ethiopia (quoting the prime minister)
    “We will bury this enemy with our blood and bones and make the glory of Ethiopia high again,” the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize winner said.

    Can we just end the Nobel Peace Prize as an institution already? How much more do we have to mock them before they're too embarrassed?

    To be fair, nobody seemed to expect that Abiy was just going to go crazy and order a genocide at the threat of losing power.

    They generally seem to be given out for specific things too and not for everything you have ever done and will ever do in your life.

    I think the big issue with it is that they're given out for current events, essentially. They should wait a decade or two to see how things play out first.

    SmrtnikGiantGeek2020
  • DarklyreDarklyre Registered User regular
    Yeah, my understanding is that a lot of armies in Africa operate more like the ANA than anything else. Poorly paid, no loyalty to the state, divided along ethnic group lines.

    Edit: also given the saber rattling Egypt and Sudan were making over the Grand Renaissance Dam, a military option must seem a lot more attractive to them if negations break down. Cause if Ethiopia can't stop some poorly armed rebels, how can they stop the Egyptian Air Force?

    The problem for the Egyptians in that scenario is that it's very hard to destroy a dam without a lot of massive bunker busters. Dams are basically solid concrete and most bombs would cause superficial damage, especially the PGMs used nowadays.

    As an example, look at most strikes against airfields - unless you're dropping a ton of cluster bombs or hitting the aircraft themselves, the airfield crew can likely just patch things up within a day or two.

  • JusticeforPlutoJusticeforPluto Registered User regular
    I have zero idea what the TPLF plans to do if they win. To me it seems like trying to conquer Eritrea again would be a terrible idea, cause idk what has changed since the end of the last war that would turn what was an abject failure into a success.

    But who knows.

  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    cckerberos wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    Kaputa wrote: »
    Best quote I've run into in articles on the current events in Ethiopia (quoting the prime minister)
    “We will bury this enemy with our blood and bones and make the glory of Ethiopia high again,” the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize winner said.

    Can we just end the Nobel Peace Prize as an institution already? How much more do we have to mock them before they're too embarrassed?

    To be fair, nobody seemed to expect that Abiy was just going to go crazy and order a genocide at the threat of losing power.

    They generally seem to be given out for specific things too and not for everything you have ever done and will ever do in your life.

    I think the big issue with it is that they're given out for current events, essentially. They should wait a decade or two to see how things play out first.

    I mean, there's also what they're given out for and given out for, if you take the meaning.

    Obama's work on nuclear nonproliferation was important, but most people don't think that's why he got the Nobel.

    RoyceSraphimKayne Red Robe
  • RoyceSraphimRoyceSraphim Registered User regular
    Why are folks supporting the tplf?

  • VeeveeVeevee WisconsinRegistered User regular
    Why are folks supporting the tplf?

    As someone who's main source of info is this thread (thank you everyone, btw), it seems like they are defending themselves against an attempted genocide, and might actually be trying to minimize the dying as best as you can in war. It looks like the TPLF are as close to "The Good Guys" as you can get nowadays.

    Smrtnik
  • RoyceSraphimRoyceSraphim Registered User regular
    It just feels weird to see reports of their forces moving towards the Capitol after being removed from power by Abiy in favor of more diverse government

    Even if he is the aggressor (probably is, tbh), the aftermath is scary to think of. How did Oromo fair under Tigray administrations?

  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    The TPLF are advancing on the capital, that has nothing to do with either "support" or lack of it on this thread.

    On "what happens after Abiy loses the war", well, the hope is that the international community manages to steer it torwards diplomatic solutions and doing things like dealing with the famine and rebuilding the critical infrastructure destroyed.

    KaputaMayabird
  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Darklyre wrote: »
    Yeah, my understanding is that a lot of armies in Africa operate more like the ANA than anything else. Poorly paid, no loyalty to the state, divided along ethnic group lines.

    Edit: also given the saber rattling Egypt and Sudan were making over the Grand Renaissance Dam, a military option must seem a lot more attractive to them if negations break down. Cause if Ethiopia can't stop some poorly armed rebels, how can they stop the Egyptian Air Force?

    The problem for the Egyptians in that scenario is that it's very hard to destroy a dam without a lot of massive bunker busters. Dams are basically solid concrete and most bombs would cause superficial damage, especially the PGMs used nowadays.

    As an example, look at most strikes against airfields - unless you're dropping a ton of cluster bombs or hitting the aircraft themselves, the airfield crew can likely just patch things up within a day or two.

    The allies were able to do serious damage to dams during WWII. The key bit is having the bomb explode under the water up next to the dam wall.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
    Doodmann
  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    From today, a spokesperson for the Oromo Liberation Army did some declarations to Egyptian media:
    For there to be peace in Ethiopia, this [Abiy Ahmed] regime must be removed and an inclusive transitional government must be put in place,” an Oromo group allied with Tigrayan fighters told Daily News Egypt early Friday.

    His statements came as US special envoy Jeffrey Feltman was in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa meeting with several senior lawmakers in a bid to reach an immediate ceasefire.

    “The Abiy regime has proven itself to be a bad faith actor in our previous attempts to negotiate a peaceful resolution. For there to be peace, this regime must be removed and an inclusive transitional government must be put in place. This is a foregone conclusion, if any negotiation takes place it will be in regards to how to ensure the removal of the Abiy regime can be done in an orderly manner that avoids unnecessary bloodshed,” Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) spokesperson Odaa Tarbii told Daily News Egypt.

    The OLA is very much asserting themselves as an equal partner to the TPLF and the rest of, well, pretty much the anti-Abiy alliance:
    Also on Friday, nine anti-government factions in Ethiopia announced the formation of an alliance. The United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Confederalist Forces includes the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which has been fighting the central government for over a year and the OLA.

    Tarbii said that the OLA will spearhead all operations within Oromia- including any regarding Finfinne (name of Addis Ababa in the Oromo language) – “but we will be working in coordination with our allied forces, including the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF).”

    And since people are starting to ask "what happens after you guys win", here's the answer so far:
    The aim of the new alliance is “to reverse the harmful effects of the Abiy Ahmed rule on the peoples of Ethiopia and beyond,” the organizers said, and “in recognition of the great need to collaborate and join forces towards a safe transition.”

    The OLA spokesperson revealed that they along with their allies plan is to establish an interim government that will stabilise the country and prepare for an inclusive transitional conference between all stakeholders.
    He ruled out secession, saying “it is not our decision to make, it is in the hands of the people and when the time comes they have the right to request it as prescribed in the constitution.”

    “As of now, we are focused on removing this dictatorship, stabilizing the situation, and putting an end to the bloodshed. Our coalition comprises representatives for all the regions you mentioned [Somali, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz] except for the Amhara. The Amhara people have a big role to play in ensuring a successful transition and we are confident they will reject the Abiy dictatorship and participate in the inclusive dialogue we aim to foster.”

    All of this is just words, but they are the right words. Talking about a government that includes all regions within the country, about stabilization, about an end to the hostilities. One thing that does goes unmentioned entirely is Eritrea. There's the implication that they are going to be too busy stabilizing the country, but who knows.

  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    From today, a spokesperson for the Oromo Liberation Army did some declarations to Egyptian media:
    For there to be peace in Ethiopia, this [Abiy Ahmed] regime must be removed and an inclusive transitional government must be put in place,” an Oromo group allied with Tigrayan fighters told Daily News Egypt early Friday.

    His statements came as US special envoy Jeffrey Feltman was in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa meeting with several senior lawmakers in a bid to reach an immediate ceasefire.

    “The Abiy regime has proven itself to be a bad faith actor in our previous attempts to negotiate a peaceful resolution. For there to be peace, this regime must be removed and an inclusive transitional government must be put in place. This is a foregone conclusion, if any negotiation takes place it will be in regards to how to ensure the removal of the Abiy regime can be done in an orderly manner that avoids unnecessary bloodshed,” Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) spokesperson Odaa Tarbii told Daily News Egypt.

    The OLA is very much asserting themselves as an equal partner to the TPLF and the rest of, well, pretty much the anti-Abiy alliance:
    Also on Friday, nine anti-government factions in Ethiopia announced the formation of an alliance. The United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Confederalist Forces includes the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which has been fighting the central government for over a year and the OLA.

    Tarbii said that the OLA will spearhead all operations within Oromia- including any regarding Finfinne (name of Addis Ababa in the Oromo language) – “but we will be working in coordination with our allied forces, including the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF).”

    And since people are starting to ask "what happens after you guys win", here's the answer so far:
    The aim of the new alliance is “to reverse the harmful effects of the Abiy Ahmed rule on the peoples of Ethiopia and beyond,” the organizers said, and “in recognition of the great need to collaborate and join forces towards a safe transition.”

    The OLA spokesperson revealed that they along with their allies plan is to establish an interim government that will stabilise the country and prepare for an inclusive transitional conference between all stakeholders.
    He ruled out secession, saying “it is not our decision to make, it is in the hands of the people and when the time comes they have the right to request it as prescribed in the constitution.”

    “As of now, we are focused on removing this dictatorship, stabilizing the situation, and putting an end to the bloodshed. Our coalition comprises representatives for all the regions you mentioned [Somali, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz] except for the Amhara. The Amhara people have a big role to play in ensuring a successful transition and we are confident they will reject the Abiy dictatorship and participate in the inclusive dialogue we aim to foster.”

    All of this is just words, but they are the right words. Talking about a government that includes all regions within the country, about stabilization, about an end to the hostilities. One thing that does goes unmentioned entirely is Eritrea. There's the implication that they are going to be too busy stabilizing the country, but who knows.

    Eh, most spokespeeps are smart enough to not flat out say "revenge" when they're asked about their group's plans for the future.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
    GiantGeek2020Kayne Red RobeSolar
  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    edited November 5
    daveNYC wrote: »
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    From today, a spokesperson for the Oromo Liberation Army did some declarations to Egyptian media:
    For there to be peace in Ethiopia, this [Abiy Ahmed] regime must be removed and an inclusive transitional government must be put in place,” an Oromo group allied with Tigrayan fighters told Daily News Egypt early Friday.

    His statements came as US special envoy Jeffrey Feltman was in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa meeting with several senior lawmakers in a bid to reach an immediate ceasefire.

    “The Abiy regime has proven itself to be a bad faith actor in our previous attempts to negotiate a peaceful resolution. For there to be peace, this regime must be removed and an inclusive transitional government must be put in place. This is a foregone conclusion, if any negotiation takes place it will be in regards to how to ensure the removal of the Abiy regime can be done in an orderly manner that avoids unnecessary bloodshed,” Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) spokesperson Odaa Tarbii told Daily News Egypt.

    The OLA is very much asserting themselves as an equal partner to the TPLF and the rest of, well, pretty much the anti-Abiy alliance:
    Also on Friday, nine anti-government factions in Ethiopia announced the formation of an alliance. The United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Confederalist Forces includes the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which has been fighting the central government for over a year and the OLA.

    Tarbii said that the OLA will spearhead all operations within Oromia- including any regarding Finfinne (name of Addis Ababa in the Oromo language) – “but we will be working in coordination with our allied forces, including the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF).”

    And since people are starting to ask "what happens after you guys win", here's the answer so far:
    The aim of the new alliance is “to reverse the harmful effects of the Abiy Ahmed rule on the peoples of Ethiopia and beyond,” the organizers said, and “in recognition of the great need to collaborate and join forces towards a safe transition.”

    The OLA spokesperson revealed that they along with their allies plan is to establish an interim government that will stabilise the country and prepare for an inclusive transitional conference between all stakeholders.
    He ruled out secession, saying “it is not our decision to make, it is in the hands of the people and when the time comes they have the right to request it as prescribed in the constitution.”

    “As of now, we are focused on removing this dictatorship, stabilizing the situation, and putting an end to the bloodshed. Our coalition comprises representatives for all the regions you mentioned [Somali, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz] except for the Amhara. The Amhara people have a big role to play in ensuring a successful transition and we are confident they will reject the Abiy dictatorship and participate in the inclusive dialogue we aim to foster.”

    All of this is just words, but they are the right words. Talking about a government that includes all regions within the country, about stabilization, about an end to the hostilities. One thing that does goes unmentioned entirely is Eritrea. There's the implication that they are going to be too busy stabilizing the country, but who knows.

    Eh, most spokespeeps are smart enough to not flat out say "revenge" when they're asked about their group's plans for the future.

    That (along with the apparently overly eloquent and optimisticTaliban spokesmen that turned out to be completely full of shit in Afghanistan) has me imagining an overly honest revolutionary spokesman.

    “To be honest, we just started our revolutionary group as a futile effort to protest the government that was probably going to kill us anyway. We never really thought that the same government that was so brutal was actually a house of cards that would fold like a paper bag at the slightest resistance. We honestly have no idea how the hell to run a government, and plan to spend the next year or two seeking vengeance on the people in the former government we don’t like, then eventually turning things over to the same basic mid-level people that ran things before”.

    Jealous Deva on
    Kayne Red RobeRoyceSraphimLord_AsmodeusCaptain Inertiaspool32Heffling
  • JusticeforPlutoJusticeforPluto Registered User regular
    It just feels weird to see reports of their forces moving towards the Capitol after being removed from power by Abiy in favor of more diverse government

    Even if he is the aggressor (probably is, tbh), the aftermath is scary to think of. How did Oromo fair under Tigray administrations?

    Yeah, I wouldn't count myself as pro TPLF, cause historically they have shown to be terrible leaders of Ethopia. Although Abiy has as well.

    The best hope for Ethopia would be a cease fire asap, Abby steps down, and a new round of elections. But I don't think that going to happen.

    While the TPLF counter attack is predictable dude to the conditions Tigray suffered, I don't think the leadership Ethopia needs can come at the end of a barrel.

  • jothkijothki Registered User regular
    I'd imagine that revolutionaries hate being told that everything they fought for and possibly died to achieve is now going to be put up to a vote that they might lose.

    shrykeSolvent
  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    An scenario is that the only thing holding those groups together is having someone to fight against, and the obvious next step is Eritrea. So.

    Anyways, the US emits their official "is about to go down" statement:
    Nov 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. embassy in Addis Ababa advised all U.S. citizens to leave Ethiopia as soon as possible, a statement on their website said on Friday, after an alliance of anti-government forces threatened to march on the capital city.

    "The security environment in Ethiopia is very fluid. We advise U.S. citizens who are in Ethiopia to leave the country as soon as possible," the statement said.

    GiantGeek2020
  • JusticeforPlutoJusticeforPluto Registered User regular
    jothki wrote: »
    I'd imagine that revolutionaries hate being told that everything they fought for and possibly died to achieve is now going to be put up to a vote that they might lose.

    To be fair, the war didn't start because the TPLF decided the government needed overthrowing.

    It started cause Abiy wanted to delay elections, with COVID being the stated reason. The Tigray region decided no, and held elections anyway. Abiy decided this was an affront, and had the National Army invade. The Ethopian Army and Eritrea occupied a lot of Tigray, bad things happened, but the TPLF managed to regroup and counter attack. It seems the Ethopian Army collapsed quickly, and now the road to the captial is open.

    It feels more like taking back control of Ethopia has somehow become a target of opportunity rather than the long term objective, somehow.

    Kayne Red RobeMayabirdGiantGeek2020
  • chrisnlchrisnl Registered User regular
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Darklyre wrote: »
    Yeah, my understanding is that a lot of armies in Africa operate more like the ANA than anything else. Poorly paid, no loyalty to the state, divided along ethnic group lines.

    Edit: also given the saber rattling Egypt and Sudan were making over the Grand Renaissance Dam, a military option must seem a lot more attractive to them if negations break down. Cause if Ethiopia can't stop some poorly armed rebels, how can they stop the Egyptian Air Force?

    The problem for the Egyptians in that scenario is that it's very hard to destroy a dam without a lot of massive bunker busters. Dams are basically solid concrete and most bombs would cause superficial damage, especially the PGMs used nowadays.

    As an example, look at most strikes against airfields - unless you're dropping a ton of cluster bombs or hitting the aircraft themselves, the airfield crew can likely just patch things up within a day or two.

    The allies were able to do serious damage to dams during WWII. The key bit is having the bomb explode under the water up next to the dam wall.

    You also have to remember that you don't have to destroy a dam in one shot, all you have to do is damage it enough for the water behind the dam to finish the job. This is probably easier if you can get people into place to setup underwater demolition charges or something, though as mentioned above underwater explosions from aerially dropped bombs can be effective. It's also very helpful if you can find a way to prevent the enemy's engineers from fixing things after the bombs go off as well.

    steam_sig.png
    Kayne Red RobeGiantGeek2020
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    jothki wrote: »
    I'd imagine that revolutionaries hate being told that everything they fought for and possibly died to achieve is now going to be put up to a vote that they might lose.

    To be fair, the war didn't start because the TPLF decided the government needed overthrowing.

    It started cause Abiy wanted to delay elections, with COVID being the stated reason. The Tigray region decided no, and held elections anyway. Abiy decided this was an affront, and had the National Army invade. The Ethopian Army and Eritrea occupied a lot of Tigray, bad things happened, but the TPLF managed to regroup and counter attack. It seems the Ethopian Army collapsed quickly, and now the road to the captial is open.

    It feels more like taking back control of Ethopia has somehow become a target of opportunity rather than the long term objective, somehow.

    Eh, that's not quite accurate I think.

    This video is afaik a decent look at the start and history of the conflict in broad terms:


    Anyway afaik:
    The TPLF and Abiy became political rivals before this, in part at least because of his making peace with Eritrea. Delaying the election and then Tigray holding the election in their region anyway is just a part of this conflict. And of course Abiy came to power in part as a result of protests saying that the last election was blatantly rigged by the TPLF. And Abiy had begun replacing TPLF appointees in the government. And then fighting broke out over control of military command headquarters in Tigray. The TPLF fired first afaik but they claim the central government's army was about to attack them.

  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    Collapsing a filled dam causes massive collateral damage downstream and I doubt the people of Sudan or potentially even Egypt itself would really appreciate a few thousand people getting drowned to prove a point about international water rights.

    Fencingsax
  • JusticeforPlutoJusticeforPluto Registered User regular
    I looked this up, and apparently it seems the Egyptian Air-force does have bunker busters in their inventory.

    Its also worth remembering that the Egyptian Armed Forces are probably the best equipped and funded in all of Africa. Looking up what is publicly available, the Egyptian Air Force has:

    38 MiG-29M/M2
    17 Sukhoi Su-35
    69 Mirage 5
    15 Mirage 2000
    24 Dassault Rafale
    168 F-16s

    This is after removing all of their training aircraft.

    Meanwhile, the Ethiopian Air Force has:
    10 MiG-23
    20 Su-27 (6 are used for training)

    Its a very one sided match up, even if we assume that all plans are flight worthy which given how well the Ethiopian Army performed I'm doubtful of. Even if we removed the old Mirage 5's

    But to be fair, the US had issues against the Vietnam People's Air Force. With good pilots, radar and command and control it is possible. But when I look up what I can find, Ethiopia seems to have very little in the way of radars and surface to air missiles. Most of what they have is old Soviet inventory from the 50s or 60s. They have one modern Chinese system (literally 1), and the Russian Pantsir, which is most famous for being destroyed by Turkish drones in Libya, in unknown numbers.

    The budget is another indicator, Egypt spends $7.4–11.1 billion USD on their armed forces, Ethiopia $520 million USD.

    Basically it seems to be that Egypt would have the better pilots, better planes, and the weapons to carry out such a strike. Eventually they would control the skies, so they wouldn't have to do it in one run (although do to international pressure they probably would) Sudan is also worried about the Dam, so I could see them allowing the Egyptian Air force to pass through or even base there.

  • KaputaKaputa Registered User regular
    I don't think Egypt would actually bomb the GERD, the flooding that would result could be catastrophic in Sudan and possibly Egypt itself.

  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    edited November 5
    I looked this up, and apparently it seems the Egyptian Air-force does have bunker busters in their inventory.

    Its also worth remembering that the Egyptian Armed Forces are probably the best equipped and funded in all of Africa. Looking up what is publicly available, the Egyptian Air Force has:

    38 MiG-29M/M2
    17 Sukhoi Su-35
    69 Mirage 5
    15 Mirage 2000
    24 Dassault Rafale
    168 F-16s

    This is after removing all of their training aircraft.

    Meanwhile, the Ethiopian Air Force has:
    10 MiG-23
    20 Su-27 (6 are used for training)

    Its a very one sided match up, even if we assume that all plans are flight worthy which given how well the Ethiopian Army performed I'm doubtful of. Even if we removed the old Mirage 5's

    But to be fair, the US had issues against the Vietnam People's Air Force. With good pilots, radar and command and control it is possible. But when I look up what I can find, Ethiopia seems to have very little in the way of radars and surface to air missiles. Most of what they have is old Soviet inventory from the 50s or 60s. They have one modern Chinese system (literally 1), and the Russian Pantsir, which is most famous for being destroyed by Turkish drones in Libya, in unknown numbers.

    The budget is another indicator, Egypt spends $7.4–11.1 billion USD on their armed forces, Ethiopia $520 million USD.

    Basically it seems to be that Egypt would have the better pilots, better planes, and the weapons to carry out such a strike. Eventually they would control the skies, so they wouldn't have to do it in one run (although do to international pressure they probably would) Sudan is also worried about the Dam, so I could see them allowing the Egyptian Air force to pass through or even base there.

    Again an example of what happens when you intentionally blow up a major dam:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_Yellow_River_flood

    Sudan and Egypt are DOWNSTREAM of the Ethiopian dam (the dam is near the border of Sudan and mostly filled).. This would be the equivalent of the US nuking Washington DC to destroy the Russian embassy.

    Jealous Deva on
    Kaputa
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    I looked this up, and apparently it seems the Egyptian Air-force does have bunker busters in their inventory.

    Its also worth remembering that the Egyptian Armed Forces are probably the best equipped and funded in all of Africa. Looking up what is publicly available, the Egyptian Air Force has:

    38 MiG-29M/M2
    17 Sukhoi Su-35
    69 Mirage 5
    15 Mirage 2000
    24 Dassault Rafale
    168 F-16s

    This is after removing all of their training aircraft.

    Meanwhile, the Ethiopian Air Force has:
    10 MiG-23
    20 Su-27 (6 are used for training)

    Its a very one sided match up, even if we assume that all plans are flight worthy which given how well the Ethiopian Army performed I'm doubtful of. Even if we removed the old Mirage 5's

    But to be fair, the US had issues against the Vietnam People's Air Force. With good pilots, radar and command and control it is possible. But when I look up what I can find, Ethiopia seems to have very little in the way of radars and surface to air missiles. Most of what they have is old Soviet inventory from the 50s or 60s. They have one modern Chinese system (literally 1), and the Russian Pantsir, which is most famous for being destroyed by Turkish drones in Libya, in unknown numbers.

    The budget is another indicator, Egypt spends $7.4–11.1 billion USD on their armed forces, Ethiopia $520 million USD.

    Basically it seems to be that Egypt would have the better pilots, better planes, and the weapons to carry out such a strike. Eventually they would control the skies, so they wouldn't have to do it in one run (although do to international pressure they probably would) Sudan is also worried about the Dam, so I could see them allowing the Egyptian Air force to pass through or even base there.

    Again an example of what happens when you intentionally blow up a dam:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_Yellow_River_flood

    Sudan and Egypt are DOWNSTREAM of the Ethiopian dam (the dam is near the border of Sudan and mostly filled).. This would be the equivalent of the US nuking Washington DC to destroy the Russian embassy.

    Hold on, I need to write this Tom Clancy rip-off before someone else gets to it.

    mrondeauGiantGeek2020FencingsaxTicaldfjamLord_AsmodeusCaptain InertiaFANTOMASspool32
  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    To be fair, the last time the Tigrayans weren't in power, they were actively genocided by the government. The 1980 famine? That was active genocide against the Tigrayans and some other tribes, trying to starve them out to death, the same thing Abiy is doing now. They took power after the civil war since they had led the opposition forces that ended up overthrowing the government, and then were leery about letting go of power, due to aforementioned prior genocide.

    Abiy could've tried to talk them down a bit, tell them that no, he's not going to genocide them, he's not like the previous regime they overthrew (that is still very much within living memory - this is the last 40 years), it's fine to lose power because nobody's going to be killing anybody over an election - but instead went straight to attack, blowing up bridges, cutting off food, and screaming for the Tigrayans to be wiped off the face of the Earth. He did exactly what they were afraid was going to happen the moment they didn't have complete control.

    Now, of course, the Tigrayans and allies weren't exactly the best of governments (they were highly oppressive and very awful) so there is that whole thing where they set up the conditions for everyone hating them again. It's a spinning cycle that no one yet is willing to end.

    TryCatcherGiantGeek2020
  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    edited November 5
    Abiy had the opportunity to try for political solutions since there was a semi-functional parlamentary system.

    He decided to go full genocide. But there's the deal with wars, the person that chooses to start one doesn't get to choose how it ends. So, depending on whatever Addis Ababa changes hands, is going to be the alliance that decides now, specially since "letting Eritrea come in to do the slaughter" probably wasn't particulary popular.

    TryCatcher on
    GiantGeek2020
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    It does not seem like Abiy went straight to a "full genocide" from what I've read. After growing tensions over various things it seems like the inciting incident was the delay of the election "because of COVID", followed by Tigray defying that call from the central government, followed by cutting off of funding to Tigray which the TPLF said was a declaration of war, followed by Abiy claiming the TPLF attacked military instillations leading to the government responding with force.

    This does not look like one guy deciding to just go off for no reason. It looks from what I've read like the boiling over of long-running internal conflicts. I'm not even sure it's clear who shot first.

  • RoyceSraphimRoyceSraphim Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    To be fair, the last time the Tigrayans weren't in power, they were actively genocided by the government. The 1980 famine? That was active genocide against the Tigrayans and some other tribes, trying to starve them out to death, the same thing Abiy is doing now. They took power after the civil war since they had led the opposition forces that ended up overthrowing the government, and then were leery about letting go of power, due to aforementioned prior genocide.

    Abiy could've tried to talk them down a bit, tell them that no, he's not going to genocide them, he's not like the previous regime they overthrew (that is still very much within living memory - this is the last 40 years), it's fine to lose power because nobody's going to be killing anybody over an election - but instead went straight to attack, blowing up bridges, cutting off food, and screaming for the Tigrayans to be wiped off the face of the Earth. He did exactly what they were afraid was going to happen the moment they didn't have complete control.

    Now, of course, the Tigrayans and allies weren't exactly the best of governments (they were highly oppressive and very awful) so there is that whole thing where they set up the conditions for everyone hating them again. It's a spinning cycle that no one yet is willing to end.

    Thank you for important context

    Mayabird
  • KaputaKaputa Registered User regular
    edited November 6
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    Abiy had the opportunity to try for political solutions since there was a semi-functional parlamentary system.

    He decided to go full genocide. But there's the deal with wars, the person that chooses to start one doesn't get to choose how it ends. So, depending on whatever Addis Ababa changes hands, is going to be the alliance that decides now, specially since "letting Eritrea come in to do the slaughter" probably wasn't particulary popular.
    That part was really the most shocking aspect of the initial outbreak of war. The Ethiopian government going in to subdue a rebellious region was a bad situation in it's own right, but telling the neighboring country that they only recently formally ended a war with "hey, you guys wanna invade the north and kill the Tigrayans" was an extreme move.

    I wonder now if Ahmed felt compelled to rely on Eritrea due to knowledge of his own military's weakness, given how quickly the government's situation has deteriorated. But if that were the case he would probably have been more inclined to avoid war in the first place.

    Kaputa on
    Mayabird
  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    Also, got to wonder, how many people do not care that much about the Tigrayans, but DO care, very much, about Abiy looking like he's giving away parts of the country to Eritrea, or even worse, looking like an Eritrean puppet.

    Just the appereance of that is incredibly damaging for a ruler looking for legitimacy, specially on this context.

    MayabirdKayne Red Robe
  • KaputaKaputa Registered User regular
    edited November 6
    Crackdown Sweeps Ethiopia’s Capital as War Draws Near
    Government forces were going to door to door in the Ethiopian capital, rounding up ethnic Tigrayans, members of the same ethnic group as the rebels closing in.
    The authorities seemed to be pursuing “every Tigrayan, especially the men,” she said, declining to give her name to avoid being arrested herself.

    Unsurprising, but disturbing. ​Ahmed's rhetoric is increasingly dehumanizing and threatening as well.
    “A rat that strays far from its hole is nearer to its death,” said the statement, referring to Tigrayan leaders and their supporters.
    But the political quickly became personal as Mr. Abiy resorted to increasingly harsh language against Tigrayan leaders, calling them “cancer” and “weeds,” stoking wide fears that he was setting the stage for ethnically motivated violence against all Tigrayans.

    Ahmed is remarkably terrible at presenting the perception that he is not deranged and genocidal.

    Also, the TPLF now apparently has eight political/militia allied groups from various ethnicities. The Oromo Liberation Front is the largest, and they've taken over several towns on the main road to Addis Ababa. The government dismisses the other groups as only existing on paper, and that may be true for some of them, but I'm not taking the government's word for it. It does look like the TPLF is trying and succeeding to some degree in assembling a broad anti-Ahmed coalition.

    Kaputa on
    SmrtnikMayabird
  • HappylilElfHappylilElf Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    It does not seem like Abiy went straight to a "full genocide" from what I've read. After growing tensions over various things it seems like the inciting incident was the delay of the election "because of COVID", followed by Tigray defying that call from the central government, followed by cutting off of funding to Tigray which the TPLF said was a declaration of war, followed by Abiy claiming the TPLF attacked military instillations leading to the government responding with force.

    This does not look like one guy deciding to just go off for no reason. It looks from what I've read like the boiling over of long-running internal conflicts. I'm not even sure it's clear who shot first.

    As far as I understand it Abiy wasn't going full genocide he was just going "cut off all international food aid".

    So less "full" genocide and more "starve to death" genocide which, especially given the history of the Tigray province, he perhaps should have understood wouldn't be well received.

    Frankly the more I follow this the more I just find myself thinking that once the TPLF takes over there's nothing left to do but hope.

    Because increasingly it seems like in situations like this all there can be is hope since it turns out "violent overthrow of a government regardless of cause" pretty much never ends in sunshine and rainbows cascading from the heavens.

  • [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular

    Do we believe her or the combined international press is the question.

    Sic transit gloria mundi.
  • RoyceSraphimRoyceSraphim Registered User regular

    Do we believe her or the combined international press is the question.

    The same press that called the president in question a Herald of world peace?

    The same world press that ignored Somali piracy until there is a hurrah military victory?

    The same world press that derides African and Indian music because they don't match European music musical structure It is therefore interior?

    Ticaldfjam
  • [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular

    Do we believe her or the combined international press is the question.

    1) The same press that called the president in question a Herald of world peace?

    2) The same world press that ignored Somali piracy until there is a hurrah military victory?

    3) The same world press that derides African and Indian music because they don't match European music musical structure It is therefore interior?

    I don't know who is right or wrong in this case.

    1) Being wrong before does not mean they're wrong now; the press has been correct in the past, too. They are neither always wrong nor always right.

    2) The press ignores stories that aren't new. It's called "the news". They talked a lot about Somali pirates when it first became a big thing. Then it ceased being news until the situation changed again.

    3) I don't listen to Western nor non-Western music and certainly don't pay attention to what who is saying what about whom. I sometimes listen to the BBC World Service, though, and at least they have a weekly segment about the African music scene.

    Sic transit gloria mundi.
  • RoyceSraphimRoyceSraphim Registered User regular

    Do we believe her or the combined international press is the question.

    1) The same press that called the president in question a Herald of world peace?

    2) The same world press that ignored Somali piracy until there is a hurrah military victory?

    3) The same world press that derides African and Indian music because they don't match European music musical structure It is therefore interior?

    I don't know who is right or wrong in this case.

    1) Being wrong before does not mean they're wrong now; the press has been correct in the past, too. They are neither always wrong nor always right.

    2) The press ignores stories that aren't new. It's called "the news". They talked a lot about Somali pirates when it first became a big thing. Then it ceased being news until the situation changed again.

    3) I don't listen to Western nor non-Western music and certainly don't pay attention to what who is saying what about whom. I sometimes listen to the BBC World Service, though, and at least they have a weekly segment about the African music scene.

    While the piracy thing is a criticism of the fact that they weren't covering white people dying until they had those 4 sniper shots, it was a big thing when bush started fucking up Katrina

    The music thing is......this

  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    Reporting here seems...off.
    Next I saw reports from major news outlets accusing the Ethiopian government of forbidding humanitarian aid from being delivered into the impacted region. My cousin sent me local news reports showing humanitarian aid has, in fact, been distributed in the troubled region and more is on the way.

    ok reasonable. But the very next sentence..
    The government jailed or expelled some of the “humanitarian workers” driving aid into the region who supported the insurgency.

    Sounds a lot like the government forbidding delivering aid to me.
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/4/claims-of-bias-against-aid-workers-in-tigray-is-dangerous-un
    On Wednesday, the Ethiopian government said both MSF and NRC “have been disseminating misinformation in social media and other platforms outside of the mandate and purpose for which the organisations were permitted to operate”.

    It did not provide specific examples of the alleged misinformation.

    and yep, banned. When you accuse misinformation but don't say what, I get suspicious. If they're social media posts it should be really easy to say "That one. Also that one, that one.."

    TryCatcherGiantGeek2020
  • [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular

    Do we believe her or the combined international press is the question.

    1) The same press that called the president in question a Herald of world peace?

    2) The same world press that ignored Somali piracy until there is a hurrah military victory?

    3) The same world press that derides African and Indian music because they don't match European music musical structure It is therefore interior?

    I don't know who is right or wrong in this case.

    1) Being wrong before does not mean they're wrong now; the press has been correct in the past, too. They are neither always wrong nor always right.

    2) The press ignores stories that aren't new. It's called "the news". They talked a lot about Somali pirates when it first became a big thing. Then it ceased being news until the situation changed again.

    3) I don't listen to Western nor non-Western music and certainly don't pay attention to what who is saying what about whom. I sometimes listen to the BBC World Service, though, and at least they have a weekly segment about the African music scene.

    2) While the piracy thing is a criticism of the fact that they weren't covering white people dying until they had those 4 sniper shots, it was a big thing when bush started fucking up Katrina

    3) The music thing is......this
    [Snip]

    2) I'm not following you at all. What does Katrina have to do with Somali pirates? And the pirates were big news when they were causing shipping past the Horn of Africa to become significantly more dangerous, then less news when that stopped being newsworthy / was dramatically reduced by Combined Task Force 130.

    3) If the NYT music reviewer (I assume they have one; I don't read the NYT or its entertainment section) says "I don't like this Nigerian song", does that also mean that the NYT is unable to report correctly about events in Ethiopia? This whole music thing seems like a complete non sequiteur.

    Sic transit gloria mundi.
    spool32
  • RoyceSraphimRoyceSraphim Registered User regular
    edited November 24
    Oh, the then Somali Prime Minister was asking for a to deal with pirates at the same time the Katrina evacuations and disasters were going on.

    Edit: I've changed the tone because it came out harsher than I intended

    RoyceSraphim on
    Jealous Deva
  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    Some interesting news. First off, the UN is moving all their people from Ethiopia:
    UNITED NATIONS, Nov 23 (Reuters) - The United Nations is "temporarily relocating" families of international staff from Ethiopia due to the security situation, U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said on Tuesday, adding that U.N. personnel would remain in the country.

    "We will continue to monitor the situation as it evolves, keeping in mind the safety of our staff and the need to continue to stand and deliver and to continue operations and support all the people that need our assistance," Dujarric said.

    Second, and oh boy this is a thing, PM Abiy is now leading from the front:
    ADDIS ABABA, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has gone to direct the war effort from the front lines, state-affiliated media reported on Wednesday, and Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen Hassen will take charge of routine government business in his absence.

    Government spokesman Legesse Tulu detailed the transfer of some routine duties in a news conference, the report from Fana news outlet said.

    Abiy announced late on Monday he was planning to personally direct the fight against Tigrayan forces and their allies.

    "Let's meet at the war front," he wrote "The time has come to lead the country with sacrifice."

    Somehow that isn't filling people with confidence that Abiy has this handled.

    GiantGeek2020Mayabird
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