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Australian & NZ Politics: NZ Local Elections: Coming Soon!

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Posts

  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    Dhalphir wrote: »
    Yeah. Pretending it's over isn't learning to live with it. You absolutely immediately slam everything shut whenever anything new comes about. If COVID hasn't proven by now that it's better to overreact than underreact, I don't know what will.

    The problem is, way too many Australians are unable to digest information from other sources, or understand cause and effect.

    They see "Well, it wasn't so bad, so it was an overreaction", and not take into account what happened in the US or UK, and figure it can't possibly get that bad here, completely missing the point that once it gets bad enough that something should be done, it's already two weeks too late.

    lonelyahavaelectricitylikesmeMr Ray
  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    Fishman wrote: »
    Learning to live with the virus isn't just shrug and go back to acting how we did in 2018 with a "oh well, people die", although it's often presented that way by people who do think that.

    If I'm learning to live with a heart condition, or diabetes, or asthma, or any one of a dozen other medical conditions, that doesn't mean going back to acting exactly the way I did before. I change and modify my behaviours to a new normal, to limit risk and preserve my quality of life. There are compromises, and some things I just either cannot do, or can do with slight inconvenience.

    That's what learning to live with a thing means.

    EDIT: This isn't replying to anyone in particular, I'm just venting frustration at the Plan B jagoffs.

    Yep. Thats my point and has been the whole time.

    I dunno what optimistic take you are talking about discrider but Ive been saying this here for a while now.

    This is literally what I mean by realising it isnt going away and we have to accept a new normal.

    Like several pages ago I made the exact point you made about a lack of dedicated quarantine facilities: thats because everyone expected things to go back to normal soon (2019).

    What Im saying is what is going to happen if covid doesnt play nice is the world will finally realise that isn't going to happen. And they will have to start building for a future where things like dedicated quarantine facilities are necessary.

    Thats not optimistic at all...Im expecting a fuck ton of deaths before thatll happen.

    That we can 'learn to live with it' realistically at all.
    It's in NSW, and now we're faced with what tradeoffs we can afford to make.
    We won't be able to go back to covid-zero.
    We won't be able to go back even to a similar mortality rate.
    We might get to lose some risky activities that no-one wants to expose themselves to, but more likely enough people will get some protection from prior infections that the increased mortality will be deemed 'manageable' and then everything will attempt to revert.
    And that's not necessarily just because some people are selfish, but also because people engaged in covid-risky behaviours beforehand for reasons, and those reasons can't necessarily be put off forever.

    https://iview.abc.net.au/video/CH2003Q026S00
    ..

  • DhalphirDhalphir don't you open that trapdoor you're a fool if you dareRegistered User regular
    edited December 2021
    WA is one of the only, if not literally the only, actual COVID zero place in the world. You don't give that up lightly, no matter the downsides of maintaining it. For all my feelings that the world of 2019 is gone forever, in WA it really isn't. I don't think the people in WA really understand just how much life has changed outside our little bubble and I wonder how ready they'd be to reopen if they went and lived in the US or UK for a couple weeks.

    In the jurisdictions where COVID zero isn't a choice anymore (ie, everywhere else), the calculus is different. I can understand the rationale of opening up further regardless of the danger. It's like when people who are poor spend a bunch of their limited money on an Xbox - the cost of an Xbox isn't going to make you un-poor, so you may as well be poor with an Xbox. If you're going to have thousands of cases a day, what's 2x(thousands of cases a day) if you're having some more freedoms as a result, to make it all a little more bearable?

    But when one of the choices is zero cases? You take that every time. The only thing we have to pay in exchange is holidaying outside the state & the ability to visit family outside the state. One of those is not even worth worrying about. Not being able to visit family is hard, but when life gets hard you make hard choices. And this one isn't even that hard.

    Dhalphir on
    discriderMcFodderButler
  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    Covid-zero was -so good-

    lonelyahavaDhalphirFishmanTefMr Ray
  • MorninglordMorninglord Registered User regular
    discrider wrote: »
    Fishman wrote: »
    Learning to live with the virus isn't just shrug and go back to acting how we did in 2018 with a "oh well, people die", although it's often presented that way by people who do think that.

    If I'm learning to live with a heart condition, or diabetes, or asthma, or any one of a dozen other medical conditions, that doesn't mean going back to acting exactly the way I did before. I change and modify my behaviours to a new normal, to limit risk and preserve my quality of life. There are compromises, and some things I just either cannot do, or can do with slight inconvenience.

    That's what learning to live with a thing means.

    EDIT: This isn't replying to anyone in particular, I'm just venting frustration at the Plan B jagoffs.

    Yep. Thats my point and has been the whole time.

    I dunno what optimistic take you are talking about discrider but Ive been saying this here for a while now.

    This is literally what I mean by realising it isnt going away and we have to accept a new normal.

    Like several pages ago I made the exact point you made about a lack of dedicated quarantine facilities: thats because everyone expected things to go back to normal soon (2019).

    What Im saying is what is going to happen if covid doesnt play nice is the world will finally realise that isn't going to happen. And they will have to start building for a future where things like dedicated quarantine facilities are necessary.

    Thats not optimistic at all...Im expecting a fuck ton of deaths before thatll happen.

    That we can 'learn to live with it' realistically at all.
    It's in NSW, and now we're faced with what tradeoffs we can afford to make.
    We won't be able to go back to covid-zero.
    We won't be able to go back even to a similar mortality rate.
    We might get to lose some risky activities that no-one wants to expose themselves to, but more likely enough people will get some protection from prior infections that the increased mortality will be deemed 'manageable' and then everything will attempt to revert.
    And that's not necessarily just because some people are selfish, but also because people engaged in covid-risky behaviours beforehand for reasons, and those reasons can't necessarily be put off forever.

    https://iview.abc.net.au/video/CH2003Q026S00
    ..

    Not if you approach it from the 2019 holding pattern mentality no.

    (PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
  • MorninglordMorninglord Registered User regular
    edited December 2021
    I am amused at the backwards pants on head idea that wanting restrictions is optimistically unrealistic tho you have got me there. :lol:

    Humanity will adapt if it is forced to. We just dont think we are forced to yet. Thats just a fact of history.

    Morninglord on
    (PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    edited December 2021
    I think it's unrealistic to believe people will not personally die before giving up their pubs and clubs.

    discrider on
  • MorninglordMorninglord Registered User regular
    Its optimistic to assume they'll have a choice.

    (PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
  • lonelyahavalonelyahava Call me Ahava ~~She/Her~~ Move to New ZealandRegistered User regular
    discrider wrote: »
    Covid-zero was -so good-

    So so so good.

    And fuck I want to get back to that point again. And we may possibly might be able to? Maybe? Unlikely but maybe?

    But I can't just hold my breath for it. I did that for the first month, hoping, praying, psychically willing those numbers to go down and people to stay home, and to just hold out just a bit longer.

    I dunno that I'll ever get back to Covid zero. But I also can't just wait for never to happen.

    I have to find a way to continue to live and work, but safely.


    But fuck I need to learn to sew because these disposable masks aren't doing it, and the reusable ones I can get at the shops just fog me up.

  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    Eh...
    More the opposite.
    I don't see anyone forcing them to close these for their own good any time soon
    Perhaps if we win the next election, but even then

    Like the biggest Delta outbreak in the ACT was from a rule-breaking Halloween party.
    Even if we shut the stores, people will still hold private parties.
    And some of these people will die, but not enough to affect behaviour.

  • MorninglordMorninglord Registered User regular
    edited December 2021
    That is because we have not had anything particularly bad happen because we've done so well.

    If the hospitals are overrun, no government, no matter how idiotic, can ignore that. That's all they're harping on about, hospital metrics.

    By that point tho, it'll be too late.

    I think you have an extremely pessimistic view of this, almost fatalistic, which is causing you to view anything not of that view as being hopelessly naive. I just hope you realise that from another person's point of view that perhaps isn't quite so ready to throw in the towel on humanity, that this is still just another bias.

    Morninglord on
    (PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
    MorganV
  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    That is because we have not had anything particularly bad happen because we've done so well.

    If the hospitals are overrun, no government, no matter how idiotic, can ignore that. That's all they're harping on about, hospital metrics.

    By that point tho, it'll be too late.


    I think you have an extremely pessimistic view of this, almost fatalistic, which is causing you to view anything not of that view as being hopelessly naive. I just hope you realise that from another person's point of view that perhaps isn't quite so ready to throw in the towel on humanity, that this is still just another bias.

    Speaking of too late, there's also the concern about the extent of long covid.

    How that affects long term impacts on the healthcare system, or susceptibility to future community health issues, makes "Fuck it, let's ride! We'll fix later." a truly problematic philosophy.

    Morninglord
  • DhalphirDhalphir don't you open that trapdoor you're a fool if you dareRegistered User regular
    Everyone acts like losing your sense of taste and smell is a mild symptom. Those senses are in your brain, bro, that's brain damage. What else is being damaged that won't present symptoms yet?

  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    If I'm getting angsty at things being hopelessly naive, it's because I'm seeing things like:
    https://www.covid19.act.gov.au/news-articles/changes-to-northside-covid-19-testing-arrangements
    'we need to move our drive through testing to a smaller area so we can have Summernats or the Canberra show or something'

  • DhalphirDhalphir don't you open that trapdoor you're a fool if you dareRegistered User regular
    basically the main thing that bothers me is that we've spent the last 6 months slowly having it drilled into us that vaccination was the way out

    and look, if all we had was Delta still, maybe it would!

    but it seems so few are willing to revise their view based on new information.

    discriderMorninglordlonelyahavaAegeri
  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    I am freaking a bit that the Omi-Coronoacast with Norman Swan broke for the holidays last Friday just as this thing ramps up.

  • MorninglordMorninglord Registered User regular
    MorganV wrote: »
    That is because we have not had anything particularly bad happen because we've done so well.

    If the hospitals are overrun, no government, no matter how idiotic, can ignore that. That's all they're harping on about, hospital metrics.

    By that point tho, it'll be too late.


    I think you have an extremely pessimistic view of this, almost fatalistic, which is causing you to view anything not of that view as being hopelessly naive. I just hope you realise that from another person's point of view that perhaps isn't quite so ready to throw in the towel on humanity, that this is still just another bias.

    Speaking of too late, there's also the concern about the extent of long covid.

    How that affects long term impacts on the healthcare system, or susceptibility to future community health issues, makes "Fuck it, let's ride! We'll fix later." a truly problematic philosophy.

    It's gonna be fun not to be able to smell for years, or forever.

    (PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    MorganV wrote: »
    That is because we have not had anything particularly bad happen because we've done so well.

    If the hospitals are overrun, no government, no matter how idiotic, can ignore that. That's all they're harping on about, hospital metrics.

    By that point tho, it'll be too late.


    I think you have an extremely pessimistic view of this, almost fatalistic, which is causing you to view anything not of that view as being hopelessly naive. I just hope you realise that from another person's point of view that perhaps isn't quite so ready to throw in the towel on humanity, that this is still just another bias.

    Speaking of too late, there's also the concern about the extent of long covid.

    How that affects long term impacts on the healthcare system, or susceptibility to future community health issues, makes "Fuck it, let's ride! We'll fix later." a truly problematic philosophy.

    It's gonna be fun not to be able to smell for years, or forever.

    I'll take a loss of smell over some of the other symptoms, especially those related to heart, lung and brain. And those are the things we do know.

    That's my issue with those numbnuts. We don't KNOW what the long term effects are going to be. It definitely seems to fuck you up pretty bad.

  • GvzbgulGvzbgul Registered User regular
    The NZ govt's Traffic Light system is a shift away from lockdowns. Even at Red, you can go everywhere and do everything. It's not "let it rip" (which is a incredibly stupid idea anyway) or a return to 2019 but it is "no more lockdowns". Unless they change it and introduce "circuit breaker" lockdowns (god I hate that term).

    lonelyahava
  • asurasur Registered User regular
    Dhalphir wrote: »
    Everyone acts like losing your sense of taste and smell is a mild symptom. Those senses are in your brain, bro, that's brain damage. What else is being damaged that won't present symptoms yet?

    Do you have a cite for this because senses aren't only in your brain? The scientific consensus for snell, while not definitive, appears to be that Covid affects either the sensing neurons or supporting cells in the nose as post mortems show covid rarely reaching the brain.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00055-6

  • The Zombie PenguinThe Zombie Penguin Eternal Hungry Corpse Registered User regular
    The whole long covid thing is simultaneously terrifying to me as someone who long term illnesses who doesn't need more, and also pisses me off something fierce because of how it dosent seem to often be part of the conversation when it comes to removing limits.

    It's hard enough getting shit treated as it is.

    Ideas hate it when you anthropomorphize them
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  • TefTef Registered User regular
    Yeah right? That’s the thing that flabbergasted me. People trying to cope with, “oh is you’re fully vaxxed is probably just a bad cold”

    help a fellow forumer meet their mental health care needs because USA healthcare sucks!

    Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better

    bit.ly/2XQM1ke
  • The Zombie PenguinThe Zombie Penguin Eternal Hungry Corpse Registered User regular
    Yeah, it's really not. And frankly our society fucking sucks at looking after people with long term chronic health issues. New Zealand notably has a really toxic mix of the "she'll be right" kiwi can do attitude and tall poppy syndrome, all bolted onto our woefully useless social safety net.

    Just as an example, I remember getting crap from people who knew me when I was still wearing a brace for a wrist injury a year+ later. Because I still needed one at that point. But it made me stick out, so clearly I was going it for sympathy or something

    (A decade plus out from this, I still have nerve damage in my wrist).

    A lot of these chucklefucks are in for a horrific awakening if they get long covid.

    Ideas hate it when you anthropomorphize them
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  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    Emergency national cabinet meeting about the outbreak of omicron on Wednesday now.
    So I guess that should be a step towards sanity again

  • -Loki--Loki- Don't pee in my mouth and tell me it's raining. Registered User regular
    discrider wrote: »
    Emergency national cabinet meeting about the outbreak of omicron on Wednesday now.
    So I guess that should be a step towards sanity again

    From what I read it’s mostly just ScoMo wanting the states to be ‘honest’ with Australians planning to travel at Christmas. Nothing about actually doing anything about what’s going on.

    But we’ll see.

  • plufimplufim Dr Registered User regular
    discrider wrote: »
    Emergency national cabinet meeting about the outbreak of omicron on Wednesday now.
    So I guess that should be a step towards sanity again

    It'll be scomo trying to pressure the other premiers into taking the NSW line of "it's a matter of personal responsibility, not public".

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  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    plufim wrote: »
    discrider wrote: »
    Emergency national cabinet meeting about the outbreak of omicron on Wednesday now.
    So I guess that should be a step towards sanity again

    It'll be scomo trying to pressure the other premiers into taking the NSW line of "it's a matter of personal responsibility, not public".

    Yup. So that way when the inevitable happens, the blame can be passed to whichever demographic they want to demonise (poor/young/immigrant), rather than accept that public health problems require public health solutions.

    Profile in courage, Scotty.

    tynicHappy Little Machine
  • ButlerButler 89 episodes or bust Registered User regular
    Jesus H Christ, Perth is looking at four consecutive days over 40˚C for Christmas

    this is gonna suck

  • plufimplufim Dr Registered User regular
    As for how badly it could go for WA if they just throw everything open: SA was covid zero like a month ago.

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  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    plufim wrote: »
    discrider wrote: »
    Emergency national cabinet meeting about the outbreak of omicron on Wednesday now.
    So I guess that should be a step towards sanity again

    It'll be scomo trying to pressure the other premiers into taking the NSW line of "it's a matter of personal responsibility, not public".

    Yeah.

    At least the ACT had reinstated the indoor mask mandate, and has started that half the cases recently (ticking below 20 a day) have been Omicron.
    Which is somewhat reassuring that the government isn't being led by NSW's denial of the situation, and that our 98% double vaxxed rate is preventing the doubling every couple of days we're seeing elsewhere.

  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    edited December 2021
    "We could have 25,000 new cases a day by the end of January if unchecked." - NSW health expert paraphrased, last week.
    "Scoff scoff, unlikely, stop scaring people." - NSW Premier, paraphrased, same conference.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10310859/NSW-Covid-cases-Brad-Hazzard-says-25-000-cases-January-Kerry-Chants-Christmas-warning.html

    1360 new cases in NSW, Dec 15.
    3763 new cases in NSW, Dec 22.

    Frankly, I think the NSW health expert dude was underselling shit.

    Fucking learn how exponential growth works, assholes.

    EDIT - Originally thought he said 20K, found the article, it was 25K, still underselling. Even if it's NOT exponential growth, and it's just adding 350 a day, that's still 17.5K by end of January, not including additional spikes for Christmas, and that it's not going to work like that.

    MorganV on
  • DhalphirDhalphir don't you open that trapdoor you're a fool if you dareRegistered User regular
    edited December 2021
    plufim wrote: »
    As for how badly it could go for WA if they just throw everything open: SA was covid zero like a month ago.

    the ACT is also one to watch for that; if things in the ACT get bad, even with their 98% vaccination rate, it will be the ultimate "fuck you" to all of the people who confidently proclaimed "just get vaccinated and learn to live with it" (aka, do one easy thing and then we can go back to normal)

    Dhalphir on
  • electricitylikesmeelectricitylikesme Registered User regular
    MorganV wrote: »
    "We could have 25,000 new cases a day by the end of January if unchecked." - NSW health expert paraphrased, last week.
    "Scoff scoff, unlikely, stop scaring people." - NSW Premier, paraphrased, same conference.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10310859/NSW-Covid-cases-Brad-Hazzard-says-25-000-cases-January-Kerry-Chants-Christmas-warning.html

    1360 new cases in NSW, Dec 15.
    3763 new cases in NSW, Dec 22.

    Frankly, I think the NSW health expert dude was underselling shit.

    Fucking learn how exponential growth works, assholes.

    EDIT - Originally thought he said 20K, found the article, it was 25K, still underselling. Even if it's NOT exponential growth, and it's just adding 350 a day, that's still 17.5K by end of January, not including additional spikes for Christmas, and that it's not going to work like that.

    It's absolutely exponential - we have barely any restrictions and that number comes out of testing. It's an undercount most likely because they're backlogged since it looks like we can manage about 140,000-ish tests a day.

  • McFodderMcFodder Registered User regular
    Had a news article saying lines at testing centres in some states were at capacity by 6am, since everyone needs a test within 3 days of traveling to Christmas, so most likely more cases out there yeah.

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  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    MorganV wrote: »
    "We could have 25,000 new cases a day by the end of January if unchecked." - NSW health expert paraphrased, last week.
    "Scoff scoff, unlikely, stop scaring people." - NSW Premier, paraphrased, same conference.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10310859/NSW-Covid-cases-Brad-Hazzard-says-25-000-cases-January-Kerry-Chants-Christmas-warning.html

    1360 new cases in NSW, Dec 15.
    3763 new cases in NSW, Dec 22.

    Frankly, I think the NSW health expert dude was underselling shit.

    Fucking learn how exponential growth works, assholes.

    EDIT - Originally thought he said 20K, found the article, it was 25K, still underselling. Even if it's NOT exponential growth, and it's just adding 350 a day, that's still 17.5K by end of January, not including additional spikes for Christmas, and that it's not going to work like that.

    It's absolutely exponential - we have barely any restrictions and that number comes out of testing. It's an undercount most likely because they're backlogged since it looks like we can manage about 140,000-ish tests a day.

    Oh, I know. I was just pointing out even if you don't understand exponential growth (like, apparently way to many politicians across the english speaking world), you STILL get most of the way there using just straight addition.

  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    edited December 2021
    Dhalphir wrote: »
    plufim wrote: »
    As for how badly it could go for WA if they just throw everything open: SA was covid zero like a month ago.

    the ACT is also one to watch for that; if things in the ACT get bad, even with their 98% vaccination rate, it will be the ultimate "fuck you" to all of the people who confidently proclaimed "just get vaccinated and learn to live with it" (aka, do one easy thing and then we can go back to normal)

    Oh fuck


    (58 cases up from 16)

    discrider on
  • -Loki--Loki- Don't pee in my mouth and tell me it's raining. Registered User regular
    Scottys plan for avoiding lockdowns.

    Masks ‘strongly recommended’ - yeah thanks, no mandate means no one will wear them still.

    ‘New role’ for QR codes, they will be used to track your visited locations and alert you if someone infected was there - this is what they were already for, how do you not know what your own shit does

    Bring back vaccination hubs - fair enough, good plan

    Increase GP and pharmacy payments for vaccinations by $10 - good, it was costing them more than the government was giving to do vaccinations

    By $10 a day - what the fuck?

    Outside if reopening hubs, their plan is do nothing they weren’t already doing.

    I’m still pretty confident saying they no longer care what happens to the population.

    discrider
  • McFodderMcFodder Registered User regular
    I love all this 'personal responsibility' stuff.

    Are they repealing traffic laws and asking people to be responsible there too?

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  • -Loki--Loki- Don't pee in my mouth and tell me it's raining. Registered User regular
    McFodder wrote: »
    I love all this 'personal responsibility' stuff.

    Are they repealing traffic laws and asking people to be responsible there too?

    The worst comparison I keep hearing is 'it's like sunscreen, you put it on to protect yourself'.

    Dipshit, if I don't put on sunscreen I don't give everyone around me skin cancer.

    MorganVtynicelectricitylikesmeVegemyteHappy Little MachineMcFodderMr Ray
  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    -Loki- wrote: »
    McFodder wrote: »
    I love all this 'personal responsibility' stuff.

    Are they repealing traffic laws and asking people to be responsible there too?

    The worst comparison I keep hearing is 'it's like sunscreen, you put it on to protect yourself'.

    Dipshit, if I don't put on sunscreen I don't give everyone around me skin cancer.

    Yeah, the example I hated is it's like smoking (in that someone else smoking can give you lung cancer). It's a little closer in that it's someone else's "personal actions" that risk fucking you up, but again, if I'm in a room with second hand smoke, I don't then take the risk of spreading secondary lung cancer home to my family.

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