I don't know. The court still needs to be legitimate and Democrats still have control. They can't really afford to make it clear that the entire apparatus of the SC is irredeemable. If court reform is being pressured right now, it will go into hyperdrive if they overturn Roe.
So you're a conservative on the court with your 6-3 majority. The question about whether they're worried about legitimacy or not is the same as asking what the fuck anyone is going to do about it if you just do what you want. There is no serious organized opposition to you even on a rhetorical level let alone in any way that has the power to threaten you. Do you really think Joe Biden is going to tell you to enforce your own rulings? Fuck no. Legitimacy was great when it was a soft 5-4 court and you had to win over a centrist sometimes, but that is gone.
I don't know. The court still needs to be legitimate and Democrats still have control. They can't really afford to make it clear that the entire apparatus of the SC is irredeemable. If court reform is being pressured right now, it will go into hyperdrive if they overturn Roe.
of what? biden can't do shit to the court and the senate is broken to the point that we'd need to pick up 12 senators to pass anything besides giving $texas to the pentagon or cut rich peoples taxes just a bit more
So you're a conservative on the court with your 6-3 majority. The question about whether they're worried about legitimacy or not is the same as asking what the fuck anyone is going to do about it if you just do what you want. There is no serious organized opposition to you even on a rhetorical level let alone in any way that has the power to threaten you. Do you really think Joe Biden is going to tell you to enforce your own rulings? Fuck no. Legitimacy was great when it was a soft 5-4 court and you had to win over a centrist sometimes, but that is gone.
Look. I know you all want to gloom and doom this, but the court still exists out here in the real world, and there are constraints how how radical their rulings can get.
So you're a conservative on the court with your 6-3 majority. The question about whether they're worried about legitimacy or not is the same as asking what the fuck anyone is going to do about it if you just do what you want. There is no serious organized opposition to you even on a rhetorical level let alone in any way that has the power to threaten you. Do you really think Joe Biden is going to tell you to enforce your own rulings? Fuck no. Legitimacy was great when it was a soft 5-4 court and you had to win over a centrist sometimes, but that is gone.
Look. I know you all want to gloom and doom this, but the court still exists out here in the real world, and there are constraints how how radical their rulings can get.
So you're a conservative on the court with your 6-3 majority. The question about whether they're worried about legitimacy or not is the same as asking what the fuck anyone is going to do about it if you just do what you want. There is no serious organized opposition to you even on a rhetorical level let alone in any way that has the power to threaten you. Do you really think Joe Biden is going to tell you to enforce your own rulings? Fuck no. Legitimacy was great when it was a soft 5-4 court and you had to win over a centrist sometimes, but that is gone.
Look. I know you all want to gloom and doom this, but the court still exists out here in the real world, and there are constraints how how radical their rulings can get.
Honestly I'm not sure how you can square saying people going "what are the mechanisms to correct this? Ok. how likely is it we will see movement on these mechanisms? Oh. Oooooohhh" as living in some fantasy world or dooming and glooming. This is the reality of the situation; this could easily go the wrong way, and the roads to blocking it aren't exactly likely to happen. We don't have the senate.
So you're a conservative on the court with your 6-3 majority. The question about whether they're worried about legitimacy or not is the same as asking what the fuck anyone is going to do about it if you just do what you want. There is no serious organized opposition to you even on a rhetorical level let alone in any way that has the power to threaten you. Do you really think Joe Biden is going to tell you to enforce your own rulings? Fuck no. Legitimacy was great when it was a soft 5-4 court and you had to win over a centrist sometimes, but that is gone.
Look. I know you all want to gloom and doom this, but the court still exists out here in the real world, and there are constraints how how radical their rulings can get.
At some point no one is “wanting to doom and gloom,” they’re pointing out what it is they’re actually seeing
what constraints do you actually think are there? And what mechanism do you see there being in place to maintain them against the power that the right has spent decades coalescing around itself?
I think politics commentator lolGOP (whose non-pen name again slips my mind) kind of has the right of it here:
It's not just abortion. It's same-sex marriage. It's voting rights. It's labor rights. It's the minimum wage. It's Medicare. It's Social Security.
The plan is to send it all "back to the states."
Reforming the Confederacy and making the Union subsidize it has always been the modern GOP's goal.
The idea of the NeoConfederate movement is a new Confederacy, and by god if they have to juryrig it within the bounds of the current structure they will do it.
Like that “funny” little joke every half-witted, would-be political comedian likes to make about “oh, they can go make their own country then and leave us alone” about the South or some shit?
that’s (part of) the fucking plan
EDIT: and it’s only doom and gloom because society’s had so much of its spirit of protest carefully neutered after the previous civil rights movement struck a major blow against Jim Crow. We need that spirit back, and redoubled beyond that. The age old recipe to cure your dooms and your glooms has two ingredients to it: Spit and Vinegar, mixed well among a large and loud populace.
It was telling that even CJ Roberts seemed taken aback by his conservative brethren's willingness to flat out overturn Roe and its progeny. I don't think Griswald is quite dead yet but it's certainly possible.
I think he knows what happens when the court writes that ruling; overturning Roe strikes directly into the heart of the court's legitimacy.
yes, but they don't care
I think Roberts probably still cares about as much as he ever did. But it's 6-3 court so Roberts doesn't matter near as much as he used to.
So you're a conservative on the court with your 6-3 majority. The question about whether they're worried about legitimacy or not is the same as asking what the fuck anyone is going to do about it if you just do what you want. There is no serious organized opposition to you even on a rhetorical level let alone in any way that has the power to threaten you. Do you really think Joe Biden is going to tell you to enforce your own rulings? Fuck no. Legitimacy was great when it was a soft 5-4 court and you had to win over a centrist sometimes, but that is gone.
Look. I know you all want to gloom and doom this, but the court still exists out here in the real world, and there are constraints how how radical their rulings can get.
At some point no one is “wanting to doom and gloom,” they’re pointing out what it is they’re actually seeing
what constraints do you actually think are there? And what mechanism do you see there being in place to maintain them against the power that the right has spent decades coalescing around itself?
I think politics commentator lolGOP (whose non-pen name again slips my mind) kind of has the right of it here:
It's not just abortion. It's same-sex marriage. It's voting rights. It's labor rights. It's the minimum wage. It's Medicare. It's Social Security.
The plan is to send it all "back to the states."
Reforming the Confederacy and making the Union subsidize it has always been the modern GOP's goal.
The idea of the NeoConfederate movement is a new Confederacy, and by god if they have to juryrig it within the bounds of the current structure they will do it.
Like that “funny” little joke every half-witted, would-be political comedian likes to make about “oh, they can go make their own country then and leave us alone” about the South or some shit?
that’s (part of) the fucking plan
EDIT: and it’s only doom and gloom because society’s had so much of its spirit of protest carefully neutered after the previous civil rights movement struck a major blow against Jim Crow. We need that spirit back, and redoubled beyond that. The age old recipe to cure your dooms and your glooms has two ingredients to it: Spit and Vinegar, mixed well among a large and loud populace.
“People talk a lot about how democracy itself is on the line in the 2022 election. What this misses is that in a number of states majority rule is already a thing of the past in state governments b/c the legislatures are so effectively gerrymandered.” https://t.co/ZBAl6iZJqx
Jamelle Bouie is a political analyst and commentator
The reason that the right wingers on the court can strike down Roe now is because, at the moment, they can do so by sending it to GOP legislatures to kill state by state. Blue states will still have abortion rights, so long as they can remain blue states, and this inequity will serve as a societal buffer thanks to our collective/societal misunderstanding of how living in this country works regarding things like “equal application of rights” or “what it costs to leave your state,” etc.
The big thing they need to worry about IMHO is that if SCOTUS losses enough legitimacy some place like California might just go "You know what, we're just gonna toss all these religious exemptions and if you don't like it try to enforce it".
While racing light mechs, your Urbanmech comes in second place, but only because it ran out of ammo.
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HacksawJ. Duggan Esq.Wrestler at LawRegistered Userregular
The west coast has largely thumbed its nose at the feds over marijuana already. We're more than ready to do it over abortion, as well.
court legitimacy is a means not an end. Once enough power is consolidated they can just do what the want.
I think the hesitation comes because Roberts is an old school republican rather than a true believer burn it down to the ground republican and thus understands how valuable the abortion fight is/was to the party.
Historically I don't think it was ever a fight "The Party" wanted to win because winning that fight could mean losing a significant portion of their base.
However that thinking is decades old at this point and the "FUCK DEMLIBTARDS" might be strong enough to keep idiots voting red even if the only issue they actually used to care about was abortion.
It was telling that even CJ Roberts seemed taken aback by his conservative brethren's willingness to flat out overturn Roe and its progeny. I don't think Griswald is quite dead yet but it's certainly possible.
I think he knows what happens when the court writes that ruling; overturning Roe strikes directly into the heart of the court's legitimacy.
yes, but they don't care
I think Roberts probably still cares about as much as he ever did. But it's 6-3 court so Roberts doesn't matter near as much as he used to.
As CJ, Roberts gets to decide who writes the majority opinion. I expect him to side with the conservatives in these cases and write the decision in a more narrow way than the true believers might prefer. I think it'll be a blow to abortion rights, but more an increased chipping away of the right than just giving Roe a suplex.
Keeping Roe in name while also establishing that states can de facto outlaw it in cute, wink wink fashion guts the rights while neutering the outrage over "overturning RvW", and Roberts is smart enough to see that.
I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
It was telling that even CJ Roberts seemed taken aback by his conservative brethren's willingness to flat out overturn Roe and its progeny. I don't think Griswald is quite dead yet but it's certainly possible.
I think he knows what happens when the court writes that ruling; overturning Roe strikes directly into the heart of the court's legitimacy.
yes, but they don't care
I think Roberts probably still cares about as much as he ever did. But it's 6-3 court so Roberts doesn't matter near as much as he used to.
As CJ, Roberts gets to decide who writes the majority opinion. I expect him to side with the conservatives in these cases and write the decision in a more narrow way than the true believers might prefer. I think it'll be a blow to abortion rights, but more an increased chipping away of the right than just giving Roe a suplex.
Keeping Roe in name while also establishing that states can de facto outlaw it in cute, wink wink fashion guts the rights while neutering the outrage over "overturning RvW", and Roberts is smart enough to see that.
I don't believe he can actually do this unless he can persuade at least one of the other conservatives to join him thus forcing the other four to do so as well. If four other justices don't sign on then his opinion isn't the majority opinion. I believe the 5 conservatives could choose to write their own majority opinion at that point.
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daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
Yeah, I'm not entirely sure that Roberts can get enough people on board to go along with the usual game of saying people have a right to have an abortion but not the right to have access to getting an abortion. Thomas, Kavanaugh, and Barrett seem unlikely to slow their roll on the subject.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
I'm reading a few people talking about the fact that based on the fact that Mississippi's argument centers on privacy/substantive due process not existing this decision could also eliminate rights granted in Griswold, Lawrence, Obergfell, Bostock, and Loving. Which would make it possible for states to make it illegal to use contraception, be gay, marry a person of the same sex, be a trans person at work, or marry someone of a different race.
My initial reaction is that of course that's too far, they wouldn't risk this much horrible shit all at once. But then, I don't think Republicans are remotely interested in winning a popular majority at any level of government anymore. And because we officially "don't have a partisan Supreme Court" a substantial number of people will assume that this is totally disconnected from the Republican party.
The Supreme Court is a truly awful idea that it is beyond time to abandon.
Edit: I've been told my entire life that the fight to end abortion was all a clever ruse, and I don't think that has ever been true. I think people took extremely close near-misses and convinced themselves that actually it was all brinksmanship and if you think about it what would they even do if abortion rights were stripped from people? And the answer is that they would look for the next set of rights to strip from people while getting 30% of the votes and 60% of the seats.
I'm reading a few people talking about the fact that based on the fact that Mississippi's argument centers on privacy/substantive due process not existing this decision could also eliminate rights granted in Griswold, Lawrence, Obergfell, Bostock, and Loving. Which would make it possible for states to make it illegal to use contraception, be gay, marry a person of the same sex, be a trans person at work, or marry someone of a different race.
My initial reaction is that of course that's too far, they wouldn't risk this much horrible shit all at once. But then, I don't think Republicans are remotely interested in winning a popular majority at any level of government anymore. And because we officially "don't have a partisan Supreme Court" a substantial number of people will assume that this is totally disconnected from the Republican party.
The Supreme Court is a truly awful idea that it is beyond time to abandon.
If they allow states to ban all of those things, wouldn't it end up making a bunch of 3rd world states inside the USA as everyone who can flees those hellholes?
I suspect Roberts will try to be the one to right the opinion because he probably sees a need for damage control. As others pointed out, a lot of fucking shithead ghouls on the right took up the "ban abortion" banner because they saw it as an easy way to get votes from dumb fucks that normally wouldn't back the GOP (pretty sure there are a number of idiot voters that don't approve of the GOP's warmongering or fuck the poor attitude but the "we must save the children!" makes them easy suckers to get on board for a GOP vote). That they never wanted to win the fight because then two really inconvenient issues crop up.
I've already covered the first a little. That issue is "abortion is banned," now what. They'll lose voters because abortion was the thing that made the GOP even remotely palatable to those voters. I'll point out these voters are idiots and assholes because shitty GOP policies drive the abortion rate up and result in a ton of dead kids. I mean, that's what you get from the pro-war, fuck the poor and profits above all party. It's a party that doesn't give a shit about the sanctity of life. It'll claim to, but it does give a shit. Then there is also the fact that a good chunk of agitators for banning abortion are shit head reactionaries that feel they have a right to own women, hate anyone that falls under the LGBT banner, wants cull those with disabilities and bring about a white ethnostate. Once they get one goal, they are going to start being very vocal about the rest of their vile shit and the GOP may have a repeat of 2012, where they are now losing states that should be easy wins because they ended up with a roster of pro-fuck awful candidates that most absolutely do not want representing them.
The other issue, is the backlash. I know the true believer crowd of the GOP looks down on those of us that are part of their shitty group as cowards. They think real power is being the most belligerent and load fucker that struts around showing that they will use force to get what they want (not realizing that makes them reviled and an easy target for a well placed bullet. Roberts probably gets that the left isn't made up of cowards, that there is a difference between pacifism and being circumspect. Also probably gets that the scariest fucker in the room, isn't the loud belligerent asshole waving a gun around (mind you, that asshole is still scary because they are dangerous)," it's the person that stays silent, while fuming, that snaps you neck in your sleep later on." You can see the former and make countermeasures, the latter you might not see and even if you do, it gets harder to make countermeasures against them because they are willing to bide them time to execute the strike. Mind you, the backlash doesn't need to take the form of violence, it can take a ton of forms that will fuck the GOP over. Roberts also probably gets that most voters just aren't paying attention and that a fair number likely do come down on the side of keep Roe V Wade alive and that number can be increased depending on how barbaric the ban ultimately ends up being (you'll get a lot more people on board with fuck the anti-choice crowd if the ban doesn't allow rape, incest or medical reasons). He probably also gets that the silent majority nonsense is just that bullshit, so nuking Roe V Wade could kick up a huge hornets that the GOP is ill prepared to deal with.
The thing is there are two big issues for Roberts. One, he has to get enough people on board with allowing him to write an opinion that just chips away at Roe V Wade. If the the other five shitheads are hell bent on overturning Roe V Wade, that's what they are going to do. Two, we've already seen how the GOP turns on on people that down tow the line. Roberts might be finding himself in a political dead end. Overturning Roe V Wade could result in him being driving out of office in disgrace because it results in a later congress that is able to shut down the federalist society's influence really fucking hard, dismantle the shit they've gotten in place and maybe even have the number to evict his ass from SCOTUS. Salvage it and he might have to live his days ever fearful that some lunatic from the right, that see violence as the first choice in conflict resolution, which the right has many of, decides to punish him for not going far enough; especially, if he is still on the bench during a point where the GOP controls the WH and the Senate. He is too much of a power hungry worm to retire because IMO that is what a smart person would do here. They would retire because the shitstorm from them giving the libruls a seat, would die down and they could extract themselves faraway from the incoming shit storm that is probably going to put them in a lose/lose situation.
I wish i had your optimism about the center and left's stomach for giving conservatives what they are owed.
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daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
There is no political threat that can be realistically be made against Roberts. The only thing higher than SCOTUS is (perhaps) POTUS and outside of an absolutely ludicrous landslide election the only way he's leaving his current gig is via tactical retirement. Feet first (from natural causes) is technically possible, but it seems only Democratic nominated Justices are that stupid these days.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
There is no political threat that can be realistically be made against Roberts. The only thing higher than SCOTUS is (perhaps) POTUS and outside of an absolutely ludicrous landslide election the only way he's leaving his current gig is via tactical retirement. Feet first (from natural causes) is technically possible, but it seems only Democratic nominated Justices are that stupid these days.
The only thing that can threaten the SCOTUS is the Senate and the Senate is massively rigged in the GOP's favour, so ....
I'm reading a few people talking about the fact that based on the fact that Mississippi's argument centers on privacy/substantive due process not existing this decision could also eliminate rights granted in Griswold, Lawrence, Obergfell, Bostock, and Loving. Which would make it possible for states to make it illegal to use contraception, be gay, marry a person of the same sex, be a trans person at work, or marry someone of a different race.
My initial reaction is that of course that's too far, they wouldn't risk this much horrible shit all at once. But then, I don't think Republicans are remotely interested in winning a popular majority at any level of government anymore. And because we officially "don't have a partisan Supreme Court" a substantial number of people will assume that this is totally disconnected from the Republican party.
The Supreme Court is a truly awful idea that it is beyond time to abandon.
If they allow states to ban all of those things, wouldn't it end up making a bunch of 3rd world states inside the USA as everyone who can flees those hellholes?
That assumes people are actually mobile. Most people are locked down where they are, whether because of money, family, friends, work, etc.
The Great Migration wasn't done because it was fun.
If shit gets real enough people will vote with their feet.
Republicans aren't done. They absolutely want to gut the civil rights amendments and make everyone who is not a Rich, White, Cis Het man have no legal rights.
Because that is what their base wants.
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ShadowfireVermont, in the middle of nowhereRegistered Userregular
The Great Migration wasn't done because it was fun.
If shit gets real enough people will vote with their feet.
Republicans aren't done. They absolutely want to gut the civil rights amendments and make everyone who is not a Rich, White, Cis Het man have no legal rights.
Because that is what their base wants.
Yeah sure, but how do those people move? Especially when they don't have money, or can't get their whole family out? That's leaving an awful lot of people to die, or at best live among people who want them to.
The Great Migration wasn't done because it was fun.
If shit gets real enough people will vote with their feet.
Republicans aren't done. They absolutely want to gut the civil rights amendments and make everyone who is not a Rich, White, Cis Het man have no legal rights.
Because that is what their base wants.
Yeah sure, but how do those people move? Especially when they don't have money, or can't get their whole family out? That's leaving an awful lot of people to die, or at best live among people who want them to.
Maybe someone will start a charity that plays "In the Arms of an Angel," but it sends money to Red states to rescue disadvantaged people there.
There is no political threat that can be realistically be made against Roberts. The only thing higher than SCOTUS is (perhaps) POTUS and outside of an absolutely ludicrous landslide election the only way he's leaving his current gig is via tactical retirement. Feet first (from natural causes) is technically possible, but it seems only Democratic nominated Justices are that stupid these days.
The only thing that can threaten the SCOTUS is the Senate and the Senate is massively rigged in the GOP's favour, so ....
This is quite correct. Getting to a point where you could see the fuckers get impeached is hard because you need a lot of Congress seats. There are a number of things Congress can do; especially, with the blessing of the people to curtail the courts power and specifically dilute Roberts's power. Some of Roberts's BS with trying to maintain court legitimacy, is that he is trying to prevent court reform. There is nothing that can stop an embolden Congress with backing of the POTUS, from implementing a court expansion and the constitution is vague enough with court powers, that a large wave of anti-SCOTUS backlash could allow for an erosion of the current courts power and influence. Those are real political threats to Roberts's goals.
There is no political threat that can be realistically be made against Roberts. The only thing higher than SCOTUS is (perhaps) POTUS and outside of an absolutely ludicrous landslide election the only way he's leaving his current gig is via tactical retirement. Feet first (from natural causes) is technically possible, but it seems only Democratic nominated Justices are that stupid these days.
The only thing that can threaten the SCOTUS is the Senate and the Senate is massively rigged in the GOP's favour, so ....
This is quite correct. Getting to a point where you could see the fuckers get impeached is hard because you need a lot of Congress seats. There are a number of things Congress can do; especially, with the blessing of the people to curtail the courts power and specifically dilute Roberts's power. Some of Roberts's BS with trying to maintain court legitimacy, is that he is trying to prevent court reform. There is nothing that can stop an embolden Congress with backing of the POTUS, from implementing a court expansion and the constitution is vague enough with court powers, that a large wave of anti-SCOTUS backlash could allow for an erosion of the current courts power and influence. Those are real political threats to Roberts's goals.
Given current trends and election fuckery the senate is a battleground the Democrats have lost.
The Senate is no savior here. You're hoping for a wave the likes of which we haven't seen in my living memory.
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Kane Red RobeMaster of MagicArcanusRegistered Userregular
I think we'll have a supreme court justice assassinated before we see one impeached. It's a short hop from believing the recent justices are illegitimate to acting to remove them the only way the average unhinged person has the power to do.
Impeachment was never on the table. Court expansion/reform is the only viable option. You technically only need 51/50+VP Senators for that. Which is doable. But not with the Senators the Democrats currently have.
Here's the thing, if Roe V Wade gets nuked. This isn't going to play out well for the GOP. Good lord, has my morning been infuriating as a number of people I follow for political news have listed all the things that make the right and the current court look like absolute shit. First, we have a party that screams personal liberty every chance they get and rails against mask mandates being all on board for telling women what to do with their bodies. Reminded that three of the people making this call were appointed by a shithead fascist that quite possibly tried to pull off a coup. That's a third of the court and it's either going to be half or sixty percent of the votes to overturn Roe V Wade. Also worth noting that we have a very good argument that two of those justices are in stolen seats.
We have Barrett publicly stating that if women are concerned about their careers, they can just put their child up for adoption. She also ignores the health risks that her fellow women have to face and I have a good friend that had to have a C section. Under the chauvinistic world that Barrett's masters want, plenty of women would lose their career just for being pregnant and they'd be shit out of luck definitely if any health issues came up. Like having to stay in the hospital to recover from a C section operation.
We also have two sitting justices that have been accused of sexual misconduct and both of these fuckers are going to get a say in whether women can or cannot get an abortion and if Roe V Wade goes down, they'll be a third of the votes to make that happen.
There are other people I'm pissed at, but I'll keep this focused on the court. Anyways, those are all things I see people throwing out into the public discourse when things blow up. It's going to be a shit show, even if the ship rights itself because this isn't going to be something that can instantly be righted.
If the court nukes precedent too hard there will be arguments about Marbury vs Madison and while that might seem fun I would imagine it would end up loosening whatever reigns are left on gerrymandered state legislatures.
On top of how bad this situation (and possible ruling) is on its face, a lot of paths lead from it to "and then we basically don't have a country anymore."
As bad as it could be I suspect the actual outcome of the SCOTUS gutting Roe v Wade and the rest will be the US limping on much like it did before but just with a bunch more horrible unnecessary suffering.
It was telling that even CJ Roberts seemed taken aback by his conservative brethren's willingness to flat out overturn Roe and its progeny. I don't think Griswald is quite dead yet but it's certainly possible.
I think he knows what happens when the court writes that ruling; overturning Roe strikes directly into the heart of the court's legitimacy.
yes, but they don't care
I think Roberts probably still cares about as much as he ever did. But it's 6-3 court so Roberts doesn't matter near as much as he used to.
As CJ, Roberts gets to decide who writes the majority opinion. I expect him to side with the conservatives in these cases and write the decision in a more narrow way than the true believers might prefer. I think it'll be a blow to abortion rights, but more an increased chipping away of the right than just giving Roe a suplex.
Keeping Roe in name while also establishing that states can de facto outlaw it in cute, wink wink fashion guts the rights while neutering the outrage over "overturning RvW", and Roberts is smart enough to see that.
I don't believe he can actually do this unless he can persuade at least one of the other conservatives to join him thus forcing the other four to do so as well. If four other justices don't sign on then his opinion isn't the majority opinion. I believe the 5 conservatives could choose to write their own majority opinion at that point.
This is close but not quite right. CJ Roberts needs at least half of the majority to issue a controlling plurality opinion (likely but not necessarily penned by himself). So in a 6-3 decision, Roberts would need at least 2 other members of the majority to side with him on upholding the 15 week ban but not outright overruling Roe, Casey, etc. Otherwise, the 4 or 5 members of the majority can reject CJ Roberts' opinion and write their own, controlling opinion (either majority or plurality), with Roberts relegated to a concurrence in part or whole (and thus, not controlling).
Where those two votes come from, I have no idea. Thomas and Alito clearly want to overrule Roe and are on the record multiple times on this issue. That leaves Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett. I think Gorsuch and Barrett are highly unlikely to join Roberts, and Kavanaugh has only one case directly on this issue.
IMHO, the most likely outcome is that the case is decided 6-3 for Mississippi, with Thomas writing the majority decision for himself and 4 others, and Roberts concurring in part (15 week ban's constitutionality) and dissenting in part (overturning Roe and its progeny), while the 3 liberal justices issue at least 2 dissents (likely written by Breyer and Sotomayor) and Kagan joining one or the other.
As bad as it could be I suspect the actual outcome of the SCOTUS gutting Roe v Wade and the rest will be the US limping on much like it did before but just with a bunch more horrible unnecessary suffering.
In the short term, possibly. But this is, imho, merely the beginning of the assault on rights. Chevron (and the administrative state) are up for grabs, something Gorsuch has wanted for a while,Thomas too. Good luck regulating greenhouse gas emissions when the EPA is gutted from the bench. Labor laws? Public health? Education? Housing? No more federal regulations once Chevron falls.
Roe is the start, not the end. The conservative legal movement has wanted to undo the New Deal for almost a century. Looks like they're going to give it a try since they can count to five.
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ShivahnUnaware of her barrel shifter privilegeWestern coastal temptressRegistered User, Moderatormod
As bad as it could be I suspect the actual outcome of the SCOTUS gutting Roe v Wade and the rest will be the US limping on much like it did before but just with a bunch more horrible unnecessary suffering.
Yeah, I think the most likely thing to come out of it would be: one or maybe two election (midterm inclusive) blue wave that is insufficient to change the court's makeup followed by the nation collectively largely moving to "this is just how it is now lol" and voting patterns remaining similar to how they are now.
(followed, of course, by a substantially more permanent and literal blue wave that envelops Florida because the court prevented anyone from doing anything to address climate change)
As bad as it could be I suspect the actual outcome of the SCOTUS gutting Roe v Wade and the rest will be the US limping on much like it did before but just with a bunch more horrible unnecessary suffering.
In the short term, possibly. But this is, imho, merely the beginning of the assault on rights. Chevron (and the administrative state) are up for grabs, something Gorsuch has wanted for a while,Thomas too. Good luck regulating greenhouse gas emissions when the EPA is gutted from the bench. Labor laws? Public health? Education? Housing? No more federal regulations once Chevron falls.
Roe is the start, not the end. The conservative legal movement has wanted to undo the New Deal for almost a century. Looks like they're going to give it a try since they can count to five.
Yeah. And as bad as the abortion decisions are probably going to be I think them killing Chevron is the thing that will do the most damage.
As bad as it could be I suspect the actual outcome of the SCOTUS gutting Roe v Wade and the rest will be the US limping on much like it did before but just with a bunch more horrible unnecessary suffering.
In the short term, possibly. But this is, imho, merely the beginning of the assault on rights. Chevron (and the administrative state) are up for grabs, something Gorsuch has wanted for a while,Thomas too. Good luck regulating greenhouse gas emissions when the EPA is gutted from the bench. Labor laws? Public health? Education? Housing? No more federal regulations once Chevron falls.
Roe is the start, not the end. The conservative legal movement has wanted to undo the New Deal for almost a century. Looks like they're going to give it a try since they can count to five.
Yeah. And as bad as the abortion decisions are probably going to be I think them killing Chevron is the thing that will do the most damage.
It's not as high profile because the impact is not quite as direct because most people don't really understand the administrative state.
In pure rights, though, Loving, Obergefell, even Brown could be in danger.
As bad as it could be I suspect the actual outcome of the SCOTUS gutting Roe v Wade and the rest will be the US limping on much like it did before but just with a bunch more horrible unnecessary suffering.
Yeah just another brutal unjust misery on top of the pile we're happy to live with
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of what? biden can't do shit to the court and the senate is broken to the point that we'd need to pick up 12 senators to pass anything besides giving $texas to the pentagon or cut rich peoples taxes just a bit more
Look. I know you all want to gloom and doom this, but the court still exists out here in the real world, and there are constraints how how radical their rulings can get.
[citation needed]
Honestly I'm not sure how you can square saying people going "what are the mechanisms to correct this? Ok. how likely is it we will see movement on these mechanisms? Oh. Oooooohhh" as living in some fantasy world or dooming and glooming. This is the reality of the situation; this could easily go the wrong way, and the roads to blocking it aren't exactly likely to happen. We don't have the senate.
At some point no one is “wanting to doom and gloom,” they’re pointing out what it is they’re actually seeing
what constraints do you actually think are there? And what mechanism do you see there being in place to maintain them against the power that the right has spent decades coalescing around itself?
I think politics commentator lolGOP (whose non-pen name again slips my mind) kind of has the right of it here:
The idea of the NeoConfederate movement is a new Confederacy, and by god if they have to juryrig it within the bounds of the current structure they will do it.
Like that “funny” little joke every half-witted, would-be political comedian likes to make about “oh, they can go make their own country then and leave us alone” about the South or some shit?
that’s (part of) the fucking plan
EDIT: and it’s only doom and gloom because society’s had so much of its spirit of protest carefully neutered after the previous civil rights movement struck a major blow against Jim Crow. We need that spirit back, and redoubled beyond that. The age old recipe to cure your dooms and your glooms has two ingredients to it: Spit and Vinegar, mixed well among a large and loud populace.
I think Roberts probably still cares about as much as he ever did. But it's 6-3 court so Roberts doesn't matter near as much as he used to.
To build on this point:
Jamelle Bouie is a political analyst and commentator
The reason that the right wingers on the court can strike down Roe now is because, at the moment, they can do so by sending it to GOP legislatures to kill state by state. Blue states will still have abortion rights, so long as they can remain blue states, and this inequity will serve as a societal buffer thanks to our collective/societal misunderstanding of how living in this country works regarding things like “equal application of rights” or “what it costs to leave your state,” etc.
I think the hesitation comes because Roberts is an old school republican rather than a true believer burn it down to the ground republican and thus understands how valuable the abortion fight is/was to the party.
Historically I don't think it was ever a fight "The Party" wanted to win because winning that fight could mean losing a significant portion of their base.
However that thinking is decades old at this point and the "FUCK DEMLIBTARDS" might be strong enough to keep idiots voting red even if the only issue they actually used to care about was abortion.
As CJ, Roberts gets to decide who writes the majority opinion. I expect him to side with the conservatives in these cases and write the decision in a more narrow way than the true believers might prefer. I think it'll be a blow to abortion rights, but more an increased chipping away of the right than just giving Roe a suplex.
Keeping Roe in name while also establishing that states can de facto outlaw it in cute, wink wink fashion guts the rights while neutering the outrage over "overturning RvW", and Roberts is smart enough to see that.
I don't believe he can actually do this unless he can persuade at least one of the other conservatives to join him thus forcing the other four to do so as well. If four other justices don't sign on then his opinion isn't the majority opinion. I believe the 5 conservatives could choose to write their own majority opinion at that point.
My initial reaction is that of course that's too far, they wouldn't risk this much horrible shit all at once. But then, I don't think Republicans are remotely interested in winning a popular majority at any level of government anymore. And because we officially "don't have a partisan Supreme Court" a substantial number of people will assume that this is totally disconnected from the Republican party.
The Supreme Court is a truly awful idea that it is beyond time to abandon.
Edit: I've been told my entire life that the fight to end abortion was all a clever ruse, and I don't think that has ever been true. I think people took extremely close near-misses and convinced themselves that actually it was all brinksmanship and if you think about it what would they even do if abortion rights were stripped from people? And the answer is that they would look for the next set of rights to strip from people while getting 30% of the votes and 60% of the seats.
If they allow states to ban all of those things, wouldn't it end up making a bunch of 3rd world states inside the USA as everyone who can flees those hellholes?
I've already covered the first a little. That issue is "abortion is banned," now what. They'll lose voters because abortion was the thing that made the GOP even remotely palatable to those voters. I'll point out these voters are idiots and assholes because shitty GOP policies drive the abortion rate up and result in a ton of dead kids. I mean, that's what you get from the pro-war, fuck the poor and profits above all party. It's a party that doesn't give a shit about the sanctity of life. It'll claim to, but it does give a shit. Then there is also the fact that a good chunk of agitators for banning abortion are shit head reactionaries that feel they have a right to own women, hate anyone that falls under the LGBT banner, wants cull those with disabilities and bring about a white ethnostate. Once they get one goal, they are going to start being very vocal about the rest of their vile shit and the GOP may have a repeat of 2012, where they are now losing states that should be easy wins because they ended up with a roster of pro-fuck awful candidates that most absolutely do not want representing them.
The other issue, is the backlash. I know the true believer crowd of the GOP looks down on those of us that are part of their shitty group as cowards. They think real power is being the most belligerent and load fucker that struts around showing that they will use force to get what they want (not realizing that makes them reviled and an easy target for a well placed bullet. Roberts probably gets that the left isn't made up of cowards, that there is a difference between pacifism and being circumspect. Also probably gets that the scariest fucker in the room, isn't the loud belligerent asshole waving a gun around (mind you, that asshole is still scary because they are dangerous)," it's the person that stays silent, while fuming, that snaps you neck in your sleep later on." You can see the former and make countermeasures, the latter you might not see and even if you do, it gets harder to make countermeasures against them because they are willing to bide them time to execute the strike. Mind you, the backlash doesn't need to take the form of violence, it can take a ton of forms that will fuck the GOP over. Roberts also probably gets that most voters just aren't paying attention and that a fair number likely do come down on the side of keep Roe V Wade alive and that number can be increased depending on how barbaric the ban ultimately ends up being (you'll get a lot more people on board with fuck the anti-choice crowd if the ban doesn't allow rape, incest or medical reasons). He probably also gets that the silent majority nonsense is just that bullshit, so nuking Roe V Wade could kick up a huge hornets that the GOP is ill prepared to deal with.
The thing is there are two big issues for Roberts. One, he has to get enough people on board with allowing him to write an opinion that just chips away at Roe V Wade. If the the other five shitheads are hell bent on overturning Roe V Wade, that's what they are going to do. Two, we've already seen how the GOP turns on on people that down tow the line. Roberts might be finding himself in a political dead end. Overturning Roe V Wade could result in him being driving out of office in disgrace because it results in a later congress that is able to shut down the federalist society's influence really fucking hard, dismantle the shit they've gotten in place and maybe even have the number to evict his ass from SCOTUS. Salvage it and he might have to live his days ever fearful that some lunatic from the right, that see violence as the first choice in conflict resolution, which the right has many of, decides to punish him for not going far enough; especially, if he is still on the bench during a point where the GOP controls the WH and the Senate. He is too much of a power hungry worm to retire because IMO that is what a smart person would do here. They would retire because the shitstorm from them giving the libruls a seat, would die down and they could extract themselves faraway from the incoming shit storm that is probably going to put them in a lose/lose situation.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
The only thing that can threaten the SCOTUS is the Senate and the Senate is massively rigged in the GOP's favour, so ....
That assumes people are actually mobile. Most people are locked down where they are, whether because of money, family, friends, work, etc.
If shit gets real enough people will vote with their feet.
Republicans aren't done. They absolutely want to gut the civil rights amendments and make everyone who is not a Rich, White, Cis Het man have no legal rights.
Because that is what their base wants.
Yeah sure, but how do those people move? Especially when they don't have money, or can't get their whole family out? That's leaving an awful lot of people to die, or at best live among people who want them to.
Maybe someone will start a charity that plays "In the Arms of an Angel," but it sends money to Red states to rescue disadvantaged people there.
This is quite correct. Getting to a point where you could see the fuckers get impeached is hard because you need a lot of Congress seats. There are a number of things Congress can do; especially, with the blessing of the people to curtail the courts power and specifically dilute Roberts's power. Some of Roberts's BS with trying to maintain court legitimacy, is that he is trying to prevent court reform. There is nothing that can stop an embolden Congress with backing of the POTUS, from implementing a court expansion and the constitution is vague enough with court powers, that a large wave of anti-SCOTUS backlash could allow for an erosion of the current courts power and influence. Those are real political threats to Roberts's goals.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Given current trends and election fuckery the senate is a battleground the Democrats have lost.
The Senate is no savior here. You're hoping for a wave the likes of which we haven't seen in my living memory.
We have Barrett publicly stating that if women are concerned about their careers, they can just put their child up for adoption. She also ignores the health risks that her fellow women have to face and I have a good friend that had to have a C section. Under the chauvinistic world that Barrett's masters want, plenty of women would lose their career just for being pregnant and they'd be shit out of luck definitely if any health issues came up. Like having to stay in the hospital to recover from a C section operation.
We also have two sitting justices that have been accused of sexual misconduct and both of these fuckers are going to get a say in whether women can or cannot get an abortion and if Roe V Wade goes down, they'll be a third of the votes to make that happen.
There are other people I'm pissed at, but I'll keep this focused on the court. Anyways, those are all things I see people throwing out into the public discourse when things blow up. It's going to be a shit show, even if the ship rights itself because this isn't going to be something that can instantly be righted.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
This is close but not quite right. CJ Roberts needs at least half of the majority to issue a controlling plurality opinion (likely but not necessarily penned by himself). So in a 6-3 decision, Roberts would need at least 2 other members of the majority to side with him on upholding the 15 week ban but not outright overruling Roe, Casey, etc. Otherwise, the 4 or 5 members of the majority can reject CJ Roberts' opinion and write their own, controlling opinion (either majority or plurality), with Roberts relegated to a concurrence in part or whole (and thus, not controlling).
Where those two votes come from, I have no idea. Thomas and Alito clearly want to overrule Roe and are on the record multiple times on this issue. That leaves Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett. I think Gorsuch and Barrett are highly unlikely to join Roberts, and Kavanaugh has only one case directly on this issue.
IMHO, the most likely outcome is that the case is decided 6-3 for Mississippi, with Thomas writing the majority decision for himself and 4 others, and Roberts concurring in part (15 week ban's constitutionality) and dissenting in part (overturning Roe and its progeny), while the 3 liberal justices issue at least 2 dissents (likely written by Breyer and Sotomayor) and Kagan joining one or the other.
In the short term, possibly. But this is, imho, merely the beginning of the assault on rights. Chevron (and the administrative state) are up for grabs, something Gorsuch has wanted for a while,Thomas too. Good luck regulating greenhouse gas emissions when the EPA is gutted from the bench. Labor laws? Public health? Education? Housing? No more federal regulations once Chevron falls.
Roe is the start, not the end. The conservative legal movement has wanted to undo the New Deal for almost a century. Looks like they're going to give it a try since they can count to five.
Yeah, I think the most likely thing to come out of it would be: one or maybe two election (midterm inclusive) blue wave that is insufficient to change the court's makeup followed by the nation collectively largely moving to "this is just how it is now lol" and voting patterns remaining similar to how they are now.
(followed, of course, by a substantially more permanent and literal blue wave that envelops Florida because the court prevented anyone from doing anything to address climate change)
Yeah. And as bad as the abortion decisions are probably going to be I think them killing Chevron is the thing that will do the most damage.
It's not as high profile because the impact is not quite as direct because most people don't really understand the administrative state.
In pure rights, though, Loving, Obergefell, even Brown could be in danger.
Yeah just another brutal unjust misery on top of the pile we're happy to live with