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[Hiberno-Britannic Politics] - Tories Dropping like Johnson's Flies

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    ShadowenShadowen Snores in the morning LoserdomRegistered User regular
    And the other secret cause of "you get more conservative as you age": wealth corresponds with conservatism, and even in systems with universal health care, if you're wealthy you tend to live longer, so poor people literally die faster.

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    pezgenpezgen Registered User regular
    jaziek wrote: »
    Aegis wrote: »
    jaziek wrote: »
    What would interest me about this data is how they've gone about categorising the surveyed voters into the classes, as described. What makes someone working class as opposed to middle class in this case?

    The paper categorizes it as such:
    This report uses the conventional definitions of social class, derived from the occupation of the head of each household: A (professional), B (managerial), C1 (other non-manual), C2 (skilled manual), D (semi-skilled manual) and E (unskilled). There is a case for designing a different class scheme but this would make historic comparisons difficult, so we must use the data we have.

    Working Class - C2DE
    Middle Class - ABC1

    Things are fundamentally different today than they were 40 years ago... But lets just ignore that because otherwise we might have to think about things a bit harder.

    There isn’t a survey company out there who doesn’t think the class definitions very much need to be reworked. But like the quote says, if you want to make any kind of sensible comparison with prior data, you kind of have to use them.

    As soon as you make new definitions, the old data doesn’t work any more, because you don’t know where the respondents in the past would fit into the new system.

    (I’m not saying they shouldn’t improve the definitions, but I can totally see why, when you want to track a 50-year trend, you’d use the same standards)

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    shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    edited November 2021
    jaziek wrote: »
    Aegis wrote: »
    jaziek wrote: »
    What would interest me about this data is how they've gone about categorising the surveyed voters into the classes, as described. What makes someone working class as opposed to middle class in this case?

    The paper categorizes it as such:
    This report uses the conventional definitions of social class, derived from the occupation of the head of each household: A (professional), B (managerial), C1 (other non-manual), C2 (skilled manual), D (semi-skilled manual) and E (unskilled). There is a case for designing a different class scheme but this would make historic comparisons difficult, so we must use the data we have.

    Working Class - C2DE
    Middle Class - ABC1

    Things are fundamentally different today than they were 40 years ago... But lets just ignore that because otherwise we might have to think about things a bit harder.

    No, not at all. It doesn't make things "a bit harder", it basically makes comparisons extremely difficult and much more error prone because you are now measuring different things. Any analysis would have to try and kludge something together from existing historical data to make it match your modern definition.

    shryke on
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    AegisAegis Fear My Dance Overshot Toronto, Landed in OttawaRegistered User regular
    Shadowen wrote: »
    And the other secret cause of "you get more conservative as you age": wealth corresponds with conservatism, and even in systems with universal health care, if you're wealthy you tend to live longer, so poor people literally die faster.

    One caution though, the age gap here isn't "you get more conservative as you age" it's "you stop voting Labour as you age".

    It may be ideological, it may not, and is probably a load of factors.

    We'll see how long this blog lasts
    Currently DMing: None :(
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    jaziekjaziek Bad at everything And mad about it.Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    jaziek wrote: »
    Aegis wrote: »
    jaziek wrote: »
    What would interest me about this data is how they've gone about categorising the surveyed voters into the classes, as described. What makes someone working class as opposed to middle class in this case?

    The paper categorizes it as such:
    This report uses the conventional definitions of social class, derived from the occupation of the head of each household: A (professional), B (managerial), C1 (other non-manual), C2 (skilled manual), D (semi-skilled manual) and E (unskilled). There is a case for designing a different class scheme but this would make historic comparisons difficult, so we must use the data we have.

    Working Class - C2DE
    Middle Class - ABC1

    Things are fundamentally different today than they were 40 years ago... But lets just ignore that because otherwise we might have to think about things a bit harder.

    No, not at all. It doesn't make things "a bit harder", it basically makes comparisons extremely difficult and much more error prone because you are now measuring different things. Any analysis would have to try and kludge something together from existing historical data to make it match your modern definition.

    Yeah, it's almost like trying to do a like for like comparison between two very different scenarios is a bad idea.

    I'll restate what I said earlier, that if labour wants to endlessly pretend the last 30 years haven't happened, they're welcome to, but they will never win again.

    Steam ||| SC2 - Jaziek.377 on EU & NA. ||| Twitch Stream
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    japanjapan Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    jaziek wrote: »
    Aegis wrote: »
    jaziek wrote: »
    What would interest me about this data is how they've gone about categorising the surveyed voters into the classes, as described. What makes someone working class as opposed to middle class in this case?

    The paper categorizes it as such:
    This report uses the conventional definitions of social class, derived from the occupation of the head of each household: A (professional), B (managerial), C1 (other non-manual), C2 (skilled manual), D (semi-skilled manual) and E (unskilled). There is a case for designing a different class scheme but this would make historic comparisons difficult, so we must use the data we have.

    Working Class - C2DE
    Middle Class - ABC1

    Things are fundamentally different today than they were 40 years ago... But lets just ignore that because otherwise we might have to think about things a bit harder.

    No, not at all. It doesn't make things "a bit harder", it basically makes comparisons extremely difficult and much more error prone because you are now measuring different things. Any analysis would have to try and kludge something together from existing historical data to make it match your modern definition.

    In terms of carrying out surveys, it is only really a bit more difficult

    Conventionally, the approach to dealing with this is gathering enough data on any given sample that you can classify it according to both the old and the new scheme, that way you can do two different breakdowns for the same data

    The difficulty arises when you don't have enough data points according to one of the classification schemes to achieve proper post weighting significance thresholds

    But that in and of itself already tells you that there are features in the data that your old scheme wasn't sensitive to

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    Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    IMO, there definitely comes a point when the conditions/context have changed enough that you simply can't make a meaningful comparison.

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    Jam WarriorJam Warrior Registered User regular
    edited November 2021
    I think I probably personally receive less value in public service than I pay in tax, but as someone earning above the average wage and not currently suffering a health crisis I also think that’s a good thing and the entire damn point of income based tax.

    Jam Warrior on
    MhCw7nZ.gif
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    [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular
    I think I probably personally receive less value in public service than I pay in tax, but as someone earning above the average wage and not currently suffering a health crisis I also think that’s a good thing and the entire damn point of income based tax.

    The richer you are the more you get in return.

    The taxes pay for the workers who work in your factories and stores, and the consumers who buy your products in your supermarket.

    And even below that level of wealth, it pays for the society that allows your middle class life to exist.

    Sic transit gloria mundi.
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    Jam WarriorJam Warrior Registered User regular
    Yes I am well aware. But you know the respondents to that survey weren’t defining ‘value’ any wider than their own immediate bank account with no appreciation of the knock on effects to wider society.

    MhCw7nZ.gif
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    [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular
    Yes I am well aware. But you know the respondents to that survey weren’t defining ‘value’ any wider than their own immediate bank account with no appreciation of the knock on effects to wider society.

    I know you know.

    I still think it's helpful to harp on all the good stuff everyone gets from taxes at every opportunity to (try to) counter the false narrative that it's taken from us normal good people and given to "them".

    Sic transit gloria mundi.
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    jaziekjaziek Bad at everything And mad about it.Registered User regular
    Well... Ideally yes,

    But then you look at how openly corrupt the Tories are and who can really blame someone for having the opinion that their taxes are just being given to the rich.

    Steam ||| SC2 - Jaziek.377 on EU & NA. ||| Twitch Stream
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    JazzJazz Registered User regular
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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator mod
    One in my county! Yeah, we’re always setting trends.

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    KarlKarl Registered User regular
    Jazz wrote: »

    How long until the WFH order comes through?

    I mean, I've still not been back in and given tfl prices....I'd be happy to stay in my kitchen.

    But still... mandatory wfh when?

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    JazzJazz Registered User regular
    Karl wrote: »
    Jazz wrote: »

    How long until the WFH order comes through?

    I mean, I've still not been back in and given tfl prices....I'd be happy to stay in my kitchen.

    But still... mandatory wfh when?

    Hahaha, that's a good one.

    :/

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    BethrynBethryn Unhappiness is Mandatory Registered User regular
    Karl wrote: »
    Jazz wrote: »

    How long until the WFH order comes through?

    I mean, I've still not been back in and given tfl prices....I'd be happy to stay in my kitchen.

    But still... mandatory wfh when?
    Once the horse has bolted.

    ...and of course, as always, Kill Hitler.
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    SharpyVIISharpyVII Registered User regular
    My prediction is that the government will "save" Christmas then bring in some restrictions in the new year.

    Ireland has already introduced some restrictions and that was before Omicron was a thing....

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    JazzJazz Registered User regular
    SharpyVII wrote: »
    My prediction is that the government will "save" Christmas then bring in some restrictions in the new year.

    Ireland has already introduced some restrictions and that was before Omicron was a thing....

    Considering their repeated demonstrations of not being able to learn from their mistakes, and considering that's what happened last time, I think that's a reasonable expectation.

    "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results." - Albert Einstein (allegedly)

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    klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    They'll list all the measures we could/should be taking (working from home, social distancing, wearing a goddamn mask when you're standing way too close to me in a queue and fucking coughing), then say that they won't be requiring any of those because they trust that people can be responsible and be as safe as they feel they should.

    If nothing else, this is at least broadening most peoples knowledge of greek letters.

    Nobody remembers the singer. The song remains.
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    BurnageBurnage Registered User regular
    Apparently new Covid regulations are being introduced today. The government's uncharacteristic responsiveness this week is actually making me a little bit concerned about just what the data for Omicron must look like.

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    ShadowenShadowen Snores in the morning LoserdomRegistered User regular
    Optimistically, if everyone's stopped listening to Boris, maybe people are just doing their fucking jobs rather than dithering about in hopes of something good happening they can glom onto.

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    Zilla360Zilla360 21st Century. |She/Her| Trans* Woman In Aviators Firing A Bazooka. ⚛️Registered User regular
    edited November 2021
    From an e-mail by The Good Law Project:
    It’s not much fun being a Conservative backbench MP at the moment. No 10 is reportedly threatening them with the withdrawal of funding for their constituencies if they don’t toe the party line in Commons votes.

    No 10 reportedly made these threats to force MPs to spare Tory MP Owen Paterson from suspension, after he broke parliamentary rules by lobbying for a private firm that paid him £100,000 a year. One backbencher said MPs were told “they would lose funding for their constituency” if they failed to vote with the Prime Minister.

    Not only does this undermine Parliament and weaken MPs’ independence, if the allegations are true, this is in the realms of criminal offence.

    Threatening to cut off funding for local communities to save the skin of a disgraced MP also reveals the truth behind what the Government likes to style as ‘levelling up’.

    Good Law Project has sent a pre-action protocol letter to Michael Gove inviting him to deny, if he can, that the alleged conduct happened, to turn over any documents evidencing it - and to stop the threats. If you’re able to, you can make a donation to fund the legal challenge here:

    The reports suggest a very serious misuse of public money, in the realms of criminal conduct, by or for the Prime Minister. We will not stand by and watch.


    Thank you,

    Jo Maugham

    Zilla360 on
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    CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    Zilla360 wrote: »
    From an e-mail by The Good Law Project:
    It’s not much fun being a Conservative backbench MP at the moment. No 10 is reportedly threatening them with the withdrawal of funding for their constituencies if they don’t toe the party line in Commons votes.

    No 10 reportedly made these threats to force MPs to spare Tory MP Owen Paterson from suspension, after he broke parliamentary rules by lobbying for a private firm that paid him £100,000 a year. One backbencher said MPs were told “they would lose funding for their constituency” if they failed to vote with the Prime Minister.

    Not only does this undermine Parliament and weaken MPs’ independence, if the allegations are true, this is in the realms of criminal offence.

    Threatening to cut off funding for local communities to save the skin of a disgraced MP also reveals the truth behind what the Government likes to style as ‘levelling up’.

    Good Law Project has sent a pre-action protocol letter to Michael Gove inviting him to deny, if he can, that the alleged conduct happened, to turn over any documents evidencing it - and to stop the threats. If you’re able to, you can make a donation to fund the legal challenge here:

    The reports suggest a very serious misuse of public money, in the realms of criminal conduct, by or for the Prime Minister. We will not stand by and watch.


    Thank you,

    Jo Maugham

    If concrete evidence of this happening were produced it would have to be damaging to the Tories. Who wants to hear the party they voted for is punishing their local services for their MP representing them?

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    Zilla360Zilla360 21st Century. |She/Her| Trans* Woman In Aviators Firing A Bazooka. ⚛️Registered User regular
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    Brovid HasselsmofBrovid Hasselsmof [Growling historic on the fury road] Registered User regular
    I'm going to throw a saucepan at the next politician, journalist, or "commentator" who uses the term "woke"

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    CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    I'm going to throw a saucepan at the next politician, journalist, or "commentator" who uses the term "woke"

    I'd just ask them to define "woke" on camera then sit back and see how they get out of that one while staying fashionable.

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    autono-wally, erotibot300autono-wally, erotibot300 love machine Registered User regular
    Casual wrote: »
    I'm going to throw a saucepan at the next politician, journalist, or "commentator" who uses the term "woke"

    I'd just ask them to define "woke" on camera then sit back and see how they get out of that one while staying fashionable.

    "woke" is anyone critical of Boris, of course

    kFJhXwE.jpgkFJhXwE.jpg
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    klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    edited November 2021
    Casual wrote: »
    I'm going to throw a saucepan at the next politician, journalist, or "commentator" who uses the term "woke"

    I'd just ask them to define "woke" on camera then sit back and see how they get out of that one while staying fashionable.

    "woke" is anyone critical of Boris, of course

    How very "woke" of you.

    I'm going to always pronounce "woke" with finger-quotes from now on.
    Even if someone asks me what time I "woke" up this morning.

    klemming on
    Nobody remembers the singer. The song remains.
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    CaptainBeyondCaptainBeyond I've been out walking Registered User regular
    I think I first encountered 'woke' on Tumblr like 8-10 years ago. Tumblr is a smoking crater now, so I assume society will follow suit in a decade or so.

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    HerrCronHerrCron It that wickedly supports taxation Registered User regular
    A decade seems generous, honestly

    sig.gif
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    CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    edited November 2021
    japan wrote: »

    Waste of time. Tories will vote against and Labour will abstain, a largely hostile press will ignore it.

    Comments section on there is a cluster as well. A solid 60% saying "you don't speak for me" and most of the rest saying "where is my independence referendum?". It is darkly amusing to see Tories whinging about an electoral system that gives majority power with a minority of the vote though.

    Casual on
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    JazzJazz Registered User regular
    Casual wrote: »
    japan wrote: »

    Waste of time. Tories will vote against and Labour will abstain, a largely hostile press will ignore it.

    Comments section on there is a cluster as well. A solid 60% saying "you don't speak for me" and most of the rest saying "where is my independence referendum?". It is darkly amusing to see Tories whinging about an electoral system that gives majority power with a minority of the vote though.

    Self-awareness has never been their strong point.

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    japanjapan Registered User regular
    edited November 2021
    Casual wrote: »
    japan wrote: »

    Waste of time. Tories will vote against and Labour will abstain, a largely hostile press will ignore it.

    Comments section on there is a cluster as well. A solid 60% saying "you don't speak for me" and most of the rest saying "where is my independence referendum?". It is darkly amusing to see Tories whinging about an electoral system that gives majority power with a minority of the vote though.

    Yeah I'm not sure I understand where they're going with this

    I think it might be just to give the SNP a stick with which to beat Tory MPs that criticise Johnson given all the grumbling about letters to the 1922 (in that they had their opportunity to do something about it, so now they're complicit), just in the interests of sowing a bit of chaos and ramping up the pressure

    japan on
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    CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    I mean it's the SNP, taking a swipe at the Tories costs them nothing regardless of how ineffectual it is.

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    klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    It at least gives them extra ammunition for anyone who votes against. You can never have too much.

    Nobody remembers the singer. The song remains.
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    CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    I guess it's worth noting Sturgeon has announced in her conference speech they're looking to move forward with referendum motions in 2023. So we'll either see the Tories pre-emptively attempt something clever to head it off ooooooooorrrrrrrrr wait until the last moment and mount some cack handed challenge in court. Guess which one I'm betting on?

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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator mod
    The Tories don't actually have to do anything, though, do they? The SNP Scottish government sets one up, it needs the assent of Westminster to be legally binding, which won't be forthcoming, so they can hold one if they like but it has no power. At that point unionist voters will simply not turn up and claim the referendum has no validity.

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    japanjapan Registered User regular
    To be fair, the stance on a second referendum hasn't changed since the manifesto

    There is a really fractious interview with Laura Kuenssberg that the BBC put online in full (in the Podlitical podcast feed) that is basically just LK spending twenty minutes trying to get sturgeon to agree that she's changed her mind

    Also going along with this weird spin that is coming out at the moment where the opposition parties keep saying it's time for her to go despite her having won an election mere months ago

This discussion has been closed.