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[Hiberno-Britannic Politics] - Tories Dropping like Johnson's Flies

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    surrealitychecksurrealitycheck lonely, but not unloved dreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered User regular
    klemming wrote: »
    ye lab largest party is a non-con coalition gov which i will take honestly
    So what happens when none of the parties can agree on a coalition?
    I just ask because I feel that we're still running on Dumbest Timeline Rules.

    theres a sort of sliding scale

    full coalition in one end

    in the middle u have some kind of confidence and supply agreement where the smaller parties agree to vote for main government business but are not in formal coalition

    then at the bottom theres full minority gov which is where the biggest party in parliament goes to her maj and says "haha can we form a government pwease" and broadly she says yes but the process is self-limiting; traditionally if a minority gov couldnt pass its "main business" (in particular supply bills about funding) then u get an election because it constituted a default no confidence, or if the rest of parliament decides they have had enough they can just no confidence normally

    obF2Wuw.png
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    surrealitychecksurrealitycheck lonely, but not unloved dreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    Ah the Beeb are comparing these results against the 2017/2018 ones and others are doing a net before and after take.

    the beeb more like the BOOB editorialising all morning about how it was a victory for conservatives before mysteriously changing their mind this evening no i will NOT rescind this harsh language

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    altidaltid Registered User regular
    One rather sad story from the NI elections is that the greens seem to have been wiped out. Thankfully the seats have gone to Alliance (most likely) but it is a loss of variety in Stormont and their input will be missed.

    The BBC, and particularly Stephen Nolan need criticism here. The TUVs sole mla was given a hugely disproportionate amount of coverage, especially by Nolan where he basically has a regular slot several times a week. The greens by comparison were given basically zero coverage, despite having two MLAs to the TUV’s one.

    With a bit of luck, the tuv will remain with only the one MLA though.

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    RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Aw, looks like Edwin Poots got in here. :( Was kinda hoping after being parachuted in here he'd get tangled in the trees.

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    altidaltid Registered User regular
    Aw, looks like Edwin Poots got in here. :( Was kinda hoping after being parachuted in here he'd get tangled in the trees.

    A damned shame that. Would have loved to be rid of that dinosaur. Looks like he benefitted from the DUP only running one candidate in South Belfast and just hoovering up the die hard bigot vote that's always lurking about this country. Best I can hope for is that somebody who actually gives a damn about the environment replaces him as environment minister. Ideal for me would be John Blair of the Alliance, but I'm not sure if Alliance would go for it, or if it would be available when their turn comes up. Or if there will even be an executive while a bigoted minority hold the country to ransom.

    Overall, Sinn Fein look like they've done well enough to take the First Minister's post. Practically speaking, it's mostly symbolic but it needed to happen. Their success is due in part to the excellent campaign the DUP ran for them, repeatedly playing up the idea of a Sinn Fein first minister, to which nationalist voters said 'yes please'. The Alliance party have also done exceptionally well, having almost doubled their number of seats (and there may well be more to come).

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    Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    altid wrote: »
    Aw, looks like Edwin Poots got in here. :( Was kinda hoping after being parachuted in here he'd get tangled in the trees.

    A damned shame that. Would have loved to be rid of that dinosaur. Looks like he benefitted from the DUP only running one candidate in South Belfast and just hoovering up the die hard bigot vote that's always lurking about this country. Best I can hope for is that somebody who actually gives a damn about the environment replaces him as environment minister. Ideal for me would be John Blair of the Alliance, but I'm not sure if Alliance would go for it, or if it would be available when their turn comes up. Or if there will even be an executive while a bigoted minority hold the country to ransom.

    Overall, Sinn Fein look like they've done well enough to take the First Minister's post. Practically speaking, it's mostly symbolic but it needed to happen. Their success is due in part to the excellent campaign the DUP ran for them, repeatedly playing up the idea of a Sinn Fein first minister, to which nationalist voters said 'yes please'. The Alliance party have also done exceptionally well, having almost doubled their number of seats (and there may well be more to come).

    it's fairly common for one party to trot out their nightmare scenarios and boogeymen and for everyone to go "actually, that sounds pretty cool".
    don't threaten me with a good time, etc.

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    altidaltid Registered User regular
    edited May 2022
    It’s funny how keen the BBC are to cover the NI elections when normally we are a footnote… There were elections elsewhere, right? How did they go?

    altid on
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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator mod
    Sinn Fein becoming the biggest party is pretty big news.

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    jmcdonaldjmcdonald I voted, did you? DC(ish)Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    Sinn Fein becoming the biggest party is pretty big news.

    Yeah. I just saw that on CNN. is this brexit/gfa fallout? What does this mean in reality? (I don’t know UK politics well enough to forecast on my own…)

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    TraceTrace GNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam We Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    Sinn Fein becoming the biggest party is pretty big news.

    There is absolutely some unplanned pooping of pants going on at 10 Downing Street right now.

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    M-VickersM-Vickers Registered User regular
    Trace wrote: »
    Bogart wrote: »
    Sinn Fein becoming the biggest party is pretty big news.

    There is absolutely some unplanned pooping of pants going on at 10 Downing Street right now.

    The next decade should be interesting, especially if the trend continues.

    The UK could be reduced to England and Wales if this keeps up.

    Assuming Plaid Cymru don’t increase their numbers.

    I might be able to get a Welsh passport before I die !

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    monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    Sinn Fein becoming the biggest party is pretty big news.

    Is this the first time there isn't a Unionist majority at Stormont? Admittedly not quite majority Nationalist, given Alliance, but still it seems consequential.

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    klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    jmcdonald wrote: »
    Bogart wrote: »
    Sinn Fein becoming the biggest party is pretty big news.

    Yeah. I just saw that on CNN. is this brexit/gfa fallout? What does this mean in reality? (I don’t know UK politics well enough to forecast on my own…)

    Sinn Fein’s seeing wide approbation,
    A step toward unification.
    An era has ended,
    A timeline portended
    In Star Trek: The Next Generation.
    Limericking makes limericks about the news.

    Nobody remembers the singer. The song remains.
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    RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    jmcdonald wrote: »
    Bogart wrote: »
    Sinn Fein becoming the biggest party is pretty big news.

    Yeah. I just saw that on CNN. is this brexit/gfa fallout? What does this mean in reality? (I don’t know UK politics well enough to forecast on my own…)

    It's a major electoral shift, and yet due to how NI Government works it's unlikely to change much in the short to medium term.

    Brexit really is the root cause. Summary of Brexit-tangent stuff here.
    The DUP were the main campaigners for it here, and despite that NI on the whole voted to remain. Not as decisively as Scotland but it was a solid 55/45 margin. After Theresa May's electoral debacle cost the Tories their majority in 2017, she squeaked by with support from the DUP, who continued to push for as maximal a Brexit as possible. But there were several factors that hamstrung negotiations with the EU:

    - The Good Friday Agreement guaranteed no hard borders (i.e. have to stop at a checkpoint and present your passport) on the island of Ireland
    - A maximalist Brexit would have imperiled this guarantee. Fundamentally Hard Brexit was incompatible with the GFA, and if you're like altid or myself you may suspect that was part of DUP motives behind it
    - The Republic of Ireland would rather not have the GFA collapse
    - Becuase of EU unanimity requirements, Ireland could wield a veto on any agreement with Britain on the terms of leaving the EU, which would result in No-Deal Brexit. Despite some tough talking from hard right Tories, British policy ultimately concluded No-Deal Brexit would be pretty terrible for the economic disruption
    - Ireland successfully marshaled EU opinion to continued support for the GFA, meaning the EU stipulated any deal with Britain must preserve the GFA

    Cue a good 18 months of British dithering for a lot of reasons, including Northern Ireland, until Theresa May basically negotiated a clumsy hedge of a thing where basically NI customs policy would remain in alignment with the EU, thus eliminating hard borders, but it would mean divergence between NI and Mainland Britain, including possible customs checks over the Irish Sea. This Irish Sea border was (and is) vehemently opposed by Unionists, because they believe separating Northern Ireland from the UK in any sense is an existential threat of a slippery slope to continued Union. And I don't think they're wrong.

    Theresa May tried to get her deal voted through, and failed. Then she had to ask for an extension to the Brexit timer. Then she resigned/was ousted, and enter Boris Johnson. A lot of faux-Churchillian bluster later, he negotiates an agreement much like Theresa May's, shockingly enough. Initially he proposed that the NI Assembly would have to approve this special arrangement or it would default to UK alignment, but any one party can veto anything put for a vote, and it was almost certain the DUP would do that. So under EU pressure Boris caved and made it that the Assembly would have to vote to abandon the special arrangement, meaning a nationalist party could veto that if it was tried.

    This deal still didn't get in, so Boris called an election, and he won. Now he no longer needed the DUP in Westminster, and promptly threw them under the bus. Brexit happened, then covid which put Brexit on the backburner for a while, then after the grace period of withdrawal Boris threw out another half-assed agreement that basically kicked a lot of questions down the road just to avoid the spectre of No-Deal Brexit.

    Unionists aren't happy. The DUP ousted their leader in favour of Edwin Poots to demand that Britain renegotiate the "protocol", which is what covers the special arrangement for Northern Ireland. He got nowhere, barely got his nomination for First Minister in, then resigned, succeeded by Jeffrey Donaldson. They self-imposed some deadlines to undo the protocol, then impotently let them pass. Finally in February First Minister Paul Girvan resigned, causing the Assembly to be suspended. The DUP antics helped damage their popularity, as it can be argued their own intractable demands for Hard Brexit ironically created this Irish Sea border.

    In the Assembly, the Largest Nationalist party and Largest Unionist party each nominate someone to be First Minister and Deputy First Minister (misleading titles, both offices have equal power like Roman Consuls). Since Sinn Fein is now the largest party outright, their nominee would become First Minister, the first nationalist FM since the assembly began. However it looks like the DUP, still the largest Unionist party despite losing seats, will refuse to nominate a candidate, paralysing the assembly once again. Their demands are simple: Get rid of the Irish Sea Border, whether that's by renegotiating the protocol or invoking a suspension of it. It's unclear whether Westminster will suspend the protocol, but I doubt the EU would be pleased if they did. And Boris is probably going to be busy for a few weeks at least.

    If the DUP acquiesced and the assembly resumed, it still wouldn't lead to a seismic shift. There was a lot of fearmongering of Sinn Fein immediately calling a border poll, i.e. the "Should we reunify" referendum, but Sinn Fein have made no such promises and to my knowledge have no plans to do so. Polling still shows support for the Union, even if it's softened since Brexit, so I think they'll wait until they're confident of victory there.

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    surrealitychecksurrealitycheck lonely, but not unloved dreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered User regular
    i am honestly surprised the polling hasnt moved more

    for those in ni how clearly has the incredible disrespect for both the dup and unionists shown by the gov been reported as such?

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    RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    i am honestly surprised the polling hasnt moved more

    for those in ni how clearly has the incredible disrespect for both the dup and unionists shown by the gov been reported as such?

    The disrespect to NI is clear as day to me, but I haven't seen much official commentary. And I'm not a fan of that disrespect even if it arguably benefited my political preferences, for I am certain that if throwing nationalists under the bus was the expedient action for Boris, he'd have done it just as swiftly. Theresa May cared for exactly ten people over here, and now Boris doesn't even have to.

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    CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    Trace wrote: »
    Bogart wrote: »
    Sinn Fein becoming the biggest party is pretty big news.

    There is absolutely some unplanned pooping of pants going on at 10 Downing Street right now.

    Considering its currently inhabited by people who were 100% willing to jettison NI in order to get the Brexitiest Brexit... probably not much? Most of this shower couldn't point to NI on a map. Downing street does not give one single fuck, the unionists in NI on the other hand give lots of fucks and once they're done pooping their pants they're probably going to start arming themselves.

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    klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    I mean, from an electoral point of view, if NI and maybe Scotland were to leave, would the Tories even have to try to win every general election forever?

    Nobody remembers the singer. The song remains.
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    M-VickersM-Vickers Registered User regular
    klemming wrote: »
    I mean, from an electoral point of view, if NI and maybe Scotland were to leave, would the Tories even have to try to win every general election forever?

    I’m not sure - “Tories broke the UK” is a fairly strong campaign slogan.

    OTOH, the Tories can just go full nationalist and reply “We never needed them anyone, and have you noticed how they all sounded really foreign ???”

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    Alistair HuttonAlistair Hutton Dr EdinburghRegistered User regular
    edited May 2022
    klemming wrote: »
    I mean, from an electoral point of view, if NI and maybe Scotland were to leave, would the Tories even have to try to win every general election forever?

    One of the Tories strongest attack lines over the last 7 year has been the notion of Labour being reliant on the anti-uk SNP to gain power. (See the disgraceful pickpocketing Alex Salmond poster in 2015 for example).

    m4va9bptfyl1.png

    If Scotland leaves that entire avenue of attack is gone. The entire party coalitions are completely re-evaluated - Labour no longer had to tilt at windmills trying to "win back Scotland"

    Alistair Hutton on
    I have a thoughtful and infrequently updated blog about games http://whatithinkaboutwhenithinkaboutgames.wordpress.com/

    I made a game, it has penguins in it. It's pay what you like on Gumroad.

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    TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    Bad-Beat wrote: »
    From Durham's perspective, I can see the rationale of changing their stance and investigating the matter as they must have been hounded by all sorts over the last couple of weeks and could have seen this as the only way to put the matter to bed.

    However, based on the information given it seems pretty ludicrous to draw any kind of moral equivalence between BJ and Starmer from this. Starmer & co were campaigning in a by-election whilst pubs and restaurants were closed. What were the reasonable options to feed 20 / 30 people, some of whom, like Starmer, were not near their place of residence?

    The beer is a misstep but to equate that to the organising of actual drink events, in advance, during lockdown is absolutely not the same. But then again, I'm not the target audience for this smear campaign...

    Durham has a Labour police and crime commissioner, so they're probably getting a lot of messages regarding what the evidence was and why wait til after the election.

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    altidaltid Registered User regular
    edited May 2022
    They'll also have to answer why they never bothered with investigating Cummings' infamous Durham road trip and eye test. They decided that being 'apolitical' in that instance meant not even questioning him. Instead they decided to believe his press conference was entirely accurate. They were likely the only ones that did.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/may/08/from-barnard-castle-to-beergate-durham-police-chief-at-centre-of-national-row-again

    The whole thing is rotten to the core, and using the police to smear the opposition is a tactic very reminiscent of Putin's Russia. They've as much as admitted they're doing it primarily because the tory rags and the local tory MP(!) are screaming for it. And the frustrating part is that it works. It doesn't matter what the investigation says or if it has any merit (and every indication is that it doesn't). It'll be used for false equivalence from now until the end of time. The BBC are hapily repeating the smear and making a much bigger deal out of it than it deserves. It's despicable.

    altid on
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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator mod
    I haven't seen a BBC report that I'd characterise as "repeating the smear", unless they're not supposed to mention Durham police reopening the matter at all.

    In other world-leading news:
    More than 2 million adults in the UK have gone without food for a whole day over the past month because they cannot afford to eat, according to a survey revealing the “catastrophic” impact of the cost of living crisis.

    Global Britain!

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    Quantum TigerQuantum Tiger Registered User regular
    They've got Freedom bus passes to eat haven't they? Boris can't give them everything

    Or anything

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    TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    edited May 2022
    Stamer's going to step down if the police issue a fixed penalty notice. I don't think that they will given their response to Dominic Cumming's Barnard Castle trip, but you never know.
    I expect the damage has been done, but this might light a fire under Tory MPs when the next set of Met FNPs come out.

    Not a great interview he's doing though at this announcement. Often seems to be a case of him talking around the question when there is a pretty decent straight answer to give.

    Tastyfish on
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    Bad-BeatBad-Beat Registered User regular
    The level of focused criticism Starmer is receiving for a hypothetical breach of the rules when Johnson has actually broken the law...

    This feels like the right option given the circumstances but I'm just ready for attack lines from those same people claiming he's now influencing the outcome of the investigation by saying this in advance...

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    surrealitychecksurrealitycheck lonely, but not unloved dreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered User regular
    edited May 2022
    Tastyfish wrote: »
    Stamer's going to step down if the police issue a fixed penalty notice. I don't think that they will given their response to Dominic Cumming's Barnard Castle trip, but you never know.
    I expect the damage has been done, but this might light a fire under Tory MPs when the next set of Met FNPs come out.

    Not a great interview he's doing though at this announcement. Often seems to be a case of him talking around the question when there is a pretty decent straight answer to give.

    durham police didnt even interview him before of "his character" and "But we could not be influenced by the huge political feeling about him as an individual and his role within the Government."



    maybe good news tho

    EDIT:

    starmer taking a clear position here i think?

    surrealitycheck on
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    RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    What does Cummings mean by removing a trolley? Is this rhyming slang I'm not familiar with?

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    surrealitychecksurrealitycheck lonely, but not unloved dreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered User regular
    What does Cummings mean by removing a trolley? Is this rhyming slang I'm not familiar with?

    o yea he speaks in code due to extreme brane atrophy

    trolley = his term for boris, because he careens around like a trolley with nobody pushing it

    obF2Wuw.png
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    SnicketysnickSnicketysnick The Greatest Hype Man in WesterosRegistered User regular
    iirc it's his "cute" nickname for the PM, due to his habit of careening around like a dodgy shopping trolley when it comes to policy

    7qmGNt5.png
    D3 Steam #TeamTangent STO
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    RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Well he's not wrong. Like when Boris caught the DUP flat footed by backing down on allowing double dipping.

    Speaking of, wonder when that by-election is happening.

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    JazzJazz Registered User regular
    Cummings' ability to transmit such extraordinary levels of smug even in a tweet really is impressive in how infuriating it is.

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    altidaltid Registered User regular
    Well he's not wrong. Like when Boris caught the DUP flat footed by backing down on allowing double dipping.

    Speaking of, wonder when that by-election is happening.

    There's a theory that he has no intention of resigning his MP's seat and will instead just immediately co-opt somebody else into the MLA seat. It would be farcical of course, but notions such as 'shame' have long since vanished from the DUP. Likewise, since the DUP are intent on keeping it shut while there's a nationalist First Minister (they'll cover this one with various implausible demands about the protocol to deflect from the real reason), it lets Donaldson carry on with his MP gig in the meantime and avoid a potentially embarassing byelection. Grossly unfair to everyone else of course, but who cares about them? And if push came to shove, he could just force his placeholder to step down and co-opt himself back in if needed. There really needed to be an automatic "if you get elected you're automatically resigned from the other position" rule.

    Long term, I imagine the DUP will force another election before restoring the executive. Didn't win the election? Well, just keep repeating the election until you do!

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    AntinumericAntinumeric Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »

    I had to read up to understand, how long do they stay in that position? When's the by-election?

    In this moment, I am euphoric. Not because of any phony god’s blessing. But because, I am enlightened by my intelligence.
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    RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »

    I had to read up to understand, how long do they stay in that position? When's the by-election?

    They stay in that position until someone else gets posted to it (resigns from Commons).

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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator mod
    The papers that have spent weeks leaning on Durham Police to reopen the investigation are now complaining that Starmer’s promise is putting undue pressure on the police. Hilarious.

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    RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    The papers that have spent weeks leaning on Durham Police to reopen the investigation are now complaining that Starmer’s promise is putting undue pressure on the police. Hilarious.

    Much like my eighteen month old godson wants whatever his sister happens to have, they shift what they want based on what he does.

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    klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    The papers that have spent weeks leaning on Durham Police to reopen the investigation are now complaining that Starmer’s promise is putting undue pressure on the police. Hilarious.
    Are we talking about 'the papers' here, or just the Daily Mail? I've only seen the front pages as I walk past, but it feels like they're the only ones trying to really blow this up (This is just because I'm replaying Miles Morales at the moment, but I keep expecting to see a Daily BugleMail with the headline STARMER: THREAT OR MENACE?)

    Nobody remembers the singer. The song remains.
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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator mod
    The Sun demanded he resign in an editorial the other day.

This discussion has been closed.