I was initially feeling a "why did Heffling get mafia killed day 1, sus" follow-up, as there is the Ahava discord group that could be some useful meta there.
But then I was reviewing the posts and hmmm well he made like the only substantial post all day.
Yes, because otherwise we would have no start to vote information to analyze. Generally we're given one vote skip before being killed for inactivity, and you could use that to skip a specific vote. But that means you're at risk for life or just a simple brain fart killing you. And, at least for me, I feel that the ethical thing to do is vote every day.
Onto the Phalla itself, 21 players with an ideal of 25, so probably 4 mafia, maybe 5. Vanilla statements and roles along with the small population means that the mafia probably doesn't have a 2nd kill (or vig of their own). Serial killer is currently a big ?, but we'll know in a day.
So, without SK or 2nd mafia kill, we're probably looking at 3 per day (vote, vig, mafia), which would make for a 7 day minimum, and a 10ish day maximum. This is a reasonable time frame for a Phalla. Another kill would drop us to 5-10 days. Also reasonable. I think at 5 kills, the time would be 4-10 days, and I think the game could end too fast. The top end is unchanged because it's possible to lose all extra kill roles on day 1, even if very unlikely.
Phyphor developed a vote scraper at one point. It is still active? Or do we need to track our own vote totals?
So that makes the meta angle a lot weaker imo but not something to be discounted entirely. Looking at players that are part of the Ahava circle:
I feel like 38th/Ebum/kime would have avoided a Heffling kill and steered the mafia day 1 away from it. Village lean for me.
mittens and josh are the ones that I feel might have picked from that group, especially if mafia grouped with outsiders who don't particularly care.
Not strong to condemn over the Heffling target but given that we had a race between !mittens and discrider I think that's a lot of leads coming out of stuff already if they're mafia.
I feel like 38th/Ebum/kime would have avoided a Heffling kill and steered the mafia day 1 away from it. Village lean for me.
mittens and josh are the ones that I feel might have picked from that group, especially if mafia grouped with outsiders who don't particularly care.
Not strong to condemn over the Heffling target but given that we had a race between mittens and discrider I think that's a lot of leads coming out of stuff already if they're mafia.
What's your reasoning why those three would avoid axing Heffling?
I don't have any real proof, but I think a lot of the late bandwagon onto me and then off of me and onto discrider from last night was pretty sus though I don't have much to go on, other than the Frozen Non-Dairy Dessert gang wanting to get an execution (village kill? meta question: what's the terminology used around here?) in addition to their nightly kill(s). I wonder if the FNDD gang all started their votes wherever then tried to bandwagon to discrider at the end of the day. So right now I think I'm leaning to LostNinja but the logic Locus put out was sound as well and it could be Gizzy or kime, or even enlightenedbum.
I don't think it's been discussed much here, but Ahava's writeup seems to suggest that someone was targeted and saved by the guard last night, so it seems there is a potential for 3 mafia and/or serial killer deaths per night.
Gotta go pick up the kiddo from daycare but I should be around in a couple hours for more discussion.
What's your reasoning why those three would avoid axing Heffling?
Old community-minded players that we often try to play nice with day ones for the sake of the game and people's enjoyment, and while someone inevitably has to get the axe there's usually more of a process of eliminating who shouldn't get the boot right out of the gate and then going with someone that remains at relatively random.
Basically, on day one when you have no actual info, many people inherently fallback to more social and emotional choices, and those lean towards finding reasons to not harm versus finding reasons to harm.
Grudge votes are the example of reason to harm, but those are generally not super serious and often jokey in a way to distance themselves from their choices, just like RNG voting. Grudge actions/kills are a bit more deliberate as you can "get away" with the anonymity, but there aren't a bunch of games happening to give people reasons to grudge seriously.
So statistically I would expect all player choices to be random at best and leaning towards not harm when informed, and without regular games a discord in-group is a pretty big remaining factor for decisions to be made consciously or otherwise.
Specifically to the question asked: Heffling is fresh and I would expect older community players to be more inclined to give them a pass, and for players that are less so to have a reason to pick them out of the player list as topical. It's a reason for everyone to have them top of mind, and then for some people to then exclude them.
Mafia me ruthlessly eliminates the players I'm terrified of. So...Infidel is alive.
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
And as it looked as though another scoop was sure to be done for, the catapult slipped on some well placed spilt milk and the scoop returned to it’s home.
Actually the "well placed spilt milk" flavour makes me think roleblock over guard, a rather weird way to narrate a guard imo.
I feel like 38th/Ebum/kime would have avoided a Heffling kill and steered the mafia day 1 away from it. Village lean for me.
mittens and josh are the ones that I feel might have picked from that group, especially if mafia grouped with outsiders who don't particularly care.
Not strong to condemn over the Heffling target but given that we had a race between mittens and discrider I think that's a lot of leads coming out of stuff already if they're mafia.
What's your reasoning why those three would avoid axing Heffling?
I don't have any real proof, but I think a lot of the late bandwagon onto me and then off of me and onto discrider from last night was pretty sus though I don't have much to go on, other than the Frozen Non-Dairy Dessert gang wanting to get an execution (village kill? meta question: what's the terminology used around here?) in addition to their nightly kill(s). I wonder if the FNDD gang all started their votes wherever then tried to bandwagon to discrider at the end of the day. So right now I think I'm leaning to LostNinja but the logic Locus put out was sound as well and it could be Gizzy or kime, or even enlightenedbum.
I don't think it's been discussed much here, but Ahava's writeup seems to suggest that someone was targeted and saved by the guard last night, so it seems there is a potential for 3 mafia and/or serial killer deaths per night.
Gotta go pick up the kiddo from daycare but I should be around in a couple hours for more discussion.
Mittens was second yesterday right? If anything I'd be inclined to not vote for them just because "kill the second place villager why aren't they dead yet keep killing them!" happened like four games in a row or something silly like that
Mittens was second yesterday right? If anything I'd be inclined to not vote for them just because "kill the second place villager why aren't they dead yet keep killing them!" happened like four games in a row or something silly like that
And has happened numerous times before, with not much in the way of information being generated a lot of the time.
And as it looked as though another scoop was sure to be done for, the catapult slipped on some well placed spilt milk and the scoop returned to it’s home.
Actually the "well placed spilt milk" flavour makes me think roleblock over guard, a rather weird way to narrate a guard imo.
I read that as “we almost had a tie and so two deaths, but the votes changed at the last second to break the tie.”
I feel like 38th/Ebum/kime would have avoided a Heffling kill and steered the mafia day 1 away from it. Village lean for me.
mittens and josh are the ones that I feel might have picked from that group, especially if mafia grouped with outsiders who don't particularly care.
Not strong to condemn over the Heffling target but given that we had a race between mittens and discrider I think that's a lot of leads coming out of stuff already if they're mafia.
What's your reasoning why those three would avoid axing Heffling?
I don't have any real proof, but I think a lot of the late bandwagon onto me and then off of me and onto discrider from last night was pretty sus though I don't have much to go on, other than the Frozen Non-Dairy Dessert gang wanting to get an execution (village kill? meta question: what's the terminology used around here?) in addition to their nightly kill(s). I wonder if the FNDD gang all started their votes wherever then tried to bandwagon to discrider at the end of the day. So right now I think I'm leaning to LostNinja but the logic Locus put out was sound as well and it could be Gizzy or kime, or even enlightenedbum.
I don't think it's been discussed much here, but Ahava's writeup seems to suggest that someone was targeted and saved by the guard last night, so it seems there is a potential for 3 mafia and/or serial killer deaths per night.
Gotta go pick up the kiddo from daycare but I should be around in a couple hours for more discussion.
My spreadsheet coloring does a sort on name counts then highlights the top pick with bold red text, 2nd place is just highlighted red. It unfortunately isn't smart enough to check for ties, of which we have a 4 way tie at 2 apiece
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
Posts
Nobody’s looping me in 😔
But then I was reviewing the posts and hmmm well he made like the only substantial post all day.
So that makes the meta angle a lot weaker imo but not something to be discounted entirely. Looking at players that are part of the Ahava circle:
I feel like 38th/Ebum/kime would have avoided a Heffling kill and steered the mafia day 1 away from it. Village lean for me.
mittens and josh are the ones that I feel might have picked from that group, especially if mafia grouped with outsiders who don't particularly care.
Not strong to condemn over the Heffling target but given that we had a race between !mittens and discrider I think that's a lot of leads coming out of stuff already if they're mafia.
No scooping to be had as best I know.
So we have a confirmed vig now yes?
Watching the kid all day so I'm distracted and on my phone
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I mean that could also have been a really bold wasabi. They'd risk an actual cold-blooded cream calling them out on it, but..
I mentioned that yes.
You insist that you're not connected quite a lot for no one asking. :hydra:
I was responding to this.
Acting like I was defending myself out of the clear blue sky is pretty sus though 😛
I guess I misunderstood and thought you were saying I wasn’t part of that group.
What's your reasoning why those three would avoid axing Heffling?
I don't have any real proof, but I think a lot of the late bandwagon onto me and then off of me and onto discrider from last night was pretty sus though I don't have much to go on, other than the Frozen Non-Dairy Dessert gang wanting to get an execution (village kill? meta question: what's the terminology used around here?) in addition to their nightly kill(s). I wonder if the FNDD gang all started their votes wherever then tried to bandwagon to discrider at the end of the day. So right now I think I'm leaning to LostNinja but the logic Locus put out was sound as well and it could be Gizzy or kime, or even enlightenedbum.
I don't think it's been discussed much here, but Ahava's writeup seems to suggest that someone was targeted and saved by the guard last night, so it seems there is a potential for 3 mafia and/or serial killer deaths per night.
Gotta go pick up the kiddo from daycare but I should be around in a couple hours for more discussion.
No worse than a frozen planet protoplanet floating around in the middle of nowhere :P
I was referring to that but also this:
Old community-minded players that we often try to play nice with day ones for the sake of the game and people's enjoyment, and while someone inevitably has to get the axe there's usually more of a process of eliminating who shouldn't get the boot right out of the gate and then going with someone that remains at relatively random.
Basically, on day one when you have no actual info, many people inherently fallback to more social and emotional choices, and those lean towards finding reasons to not harm versus finding reasons to harm.
Grudge votes are the example of reason to harm, but those are generally not super serious and often jokey in a way to distance themselves from their choices, just like RNG voting. Grudge actions/kills are a bit more deliberate as you can "get away" with the anonymity, but there aren't a bunch of games happening to give people reasons to grudge seriously.
So statistically I would expect all player choices to be random at best and leaning towards not harm when informed, and without regular games a discord in-group is a pretty big remaining factor for decisions to be made consciously or otherwise.
Specifically to the question asked: Heffling is fresh and I would expect older community players to be more inclined to give them a pass, and for players that are less so to have a reason to pick them out of the player list as topical. It's a reason for everyone to have them top of mind, and then for some people to then exclude them.
Also that, but Ebum murdering me if mafia isn't a generally transferable rule.
Mafia kime I would expect him to leave me alive because he's just like that.
Actually the "well placed spilt milk" flavour makes me think roleblock over guard, a rather weird way to narrate a guard imo.
There is no minimum amount of votes to kill so no reason for mafia to bandwagon a villager. Unless they know about other mechanics.
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are you still interested in doing Reserve Duty
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
And has happened numerous times before, with not much in the way of information being generated a lot of the time.
I read that as “we almost had a tie and so two deaths, but the votes changed at the last second to break the tie.”
Steam: Elvenshae // PSN: Elvenshae // WotC: Elvenshae
Wilds of Aladrion: [https://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/comment/43159014/#Comment_43159014]Ellandryn[/url]
Ahh, I thought it was majority rule, if it's just a plurality then I guess that theory is out the window.
Absolutely!! I suppose time to catch up on the thread!
Normally, this is where I'd vote for Josh, but I don't want that to turn into my thing.
So, JusticeforPluto, I guess? I'm open to being convinced to go elsewhere.
Steam: Elvenshae // PSN: Elvenshae // WotC: Elvenshae
Wilds of Aladrion: [https://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/comment/43159014/#Comment_43159014]Ellandryn[/url]
If you have a conversation going with H3, I will be slowly adding mamawolf into them so they can get caught up.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
nope
enlightenedbum - 2 - Virgil_Leads_you, lucedes
Gizzy - 2 - Locus, joshofalltrades
38thDoe - 2 - LostNinja, Phoenix-D
joshofalltrades - 1 - Locus
m!ttens - 1 - JusticeforPluto
LostNinja - 1 - m!ttens
JusticeforPluto - 1 - Elvenshae
so far we're headed for a very cool 3-way tie.
Vote order:
VLY voted ebum
Locus voted Gizzy
Gizzy voted Josh
josh voted Gizzy
Lucedes voted ebum
LostNinja voted 38thDoe
phoenixd voted 38thDoe
infidel voted mittens
justice4pluto voted mittens
mittens voted LostNinja
Elvenshae voted JusticeforPluto
My spreadsheet coloring does a sort on name counts then highlights the top pick with bold red text, 2nd place is just highlighted red. It unfortunately isn't smart enough to check for ties, of which we have a 4 way tie at 2 apiece
Switching to Gizzy!
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10 pm EST, roughly 90 minutes from now
No strong reason, just from looking at the votes today I feel like this one is ever so slightly less suspicious
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Gizzy