As was foretold, we've added advertisements to the forums! If you have questions, or if you encounter any bugs, please visit this thread: https://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/240191/forum-advertisement-faq-and-reports-thread/
Options
[War] Ukraine under Russian attack and invasion
zagdrob
Registered User regular
Registered User regular
It seems like our worst fears are happening and Russia is invading Ukraine proper. Kyiv is being shelled and a lot of information is sketchy but official reports are Russia is attacking and outside the disputed regions.
To add some detail, in the early morning of February 24th (local time) Russia began their attack on Ukraine with rocket and artillery attacks on Kyiv, followed by reports of an air assault on the Kyiv airports. As with all rapidly developing situations information is sketchy and there is a great deal of misinformation, but as of nightfall in Ukraine after the first day of the widespread invasion the facts seem to be:
- Russia and Belarus have invaded proper and have conducted a series of air and artillery strikes on military, government, and civilian sites throughout Ukraine.
- Russia currently appears to be in the process of encircling Kyiv and advance units hold a number of positions around the city.
- Russia and Ukrainian guard troops fought a battle over Chernobyl but reports are Russia has taken the power plant.
- There is widespread condemnation from basically every country but China, including a somwhat surprising group of leaders (Erdogen Orban and Johnson) who have been sympathetic to Russia in the past.
- A number of sanctions, including a moratum on Nordstream 2 and talk of booting Russia from Swift international banking are being imposed.
- Russia's stock market dropped by around 40% today, triggering circuit breakers to stop trading.
- Russia is domestically pushing the story that they are liberating Ukraine from their...Jewish Nazi leadership? Its bad faith and doesn't have to make sense.
News and misinformation are going to come fast so make sure you're not just repeating rumors and cite your sources. If it's just some random person maybe wait until the news is confirmed by an official account or news outlet. Fog of war is real, and it will take some time before we know what is really happening on the ground.
And most importantly - if you are feeling overwhelmed take a break from the thread. We all feel the same powerlessness but torturing yourself doomscrolling isn't healthy and you don't have a duty to read and respond to every post.
Edit - Day 2.
Not much more concrete information.
- Russia seemingly has not established air superiority and been bloodied and slowed more than expected in the maneuver phase.
- There are few reports of intense close fighting or urban combat, most fighting is open and at range or by missile strikes.
- Zelinsky is still alive and staying in Kyiv with his troops. His family had not evacuated and he had refused western extraction.
- Kyiv is partially encircled but still held by Ukraine
- Sanctions on Putin and Larov are in effect, and Russia is getting kicked off Swift.
- China chose to abstain on the UNSC instead of supporting Russia. UAE and India also abstained, rather than condemning Russia as expected.
- Russia seems to have been attacking Black Sea shipping indiscriminately.
- Ukraine has conscripted all men 18-60 for national defense.
Think I got most of it?
Again, take a pause if you are overly stressed. Don't doomscroll yourself into being a wreck.
ceres on
0
This discussion has been closed.
Posts
Mitt Romney (a coward)
President Biden
Brian Schatz
This must be what it felt like in the 1930s listening to the news radio
NNID: Hakkekage
Would be a good start
I hope the leaders of the west have a better idea of what happens next than I do, because I’m drawing blanks
NNID: Hakkekage
and of course the russians firmly attempting to establish all military action by ukranian government as doubly illegitimate; first as they are implicitly nazis, and second as any anti-separatist action is actually anti-ethnic russian genocide. then "we arent occupying but we will support the safety of these independent states" then "oh wow they decided to join glorious russian federation, self-determination is a human right" and so on
EDIT: a common confusion is that russian objective is to "conquer" ukraine
no. most of ukraine is fundamentally problematic for the russians - of little strategic value and full of people who can be annoying as a resistance against occupying forces. what russia (probably) wants in the first instance is to get hold of the territory that is 1) strategically valuable (sea access) 2) not going to resist ie people who identify as russian speak russian and really not that bothered about the whole thing.
the goal is to turn the rest of ukraine into a toothless domesticated buffer state with no military power and, more importantly, no ability or desire to join nato / have forces stationed in it because it remembers how bad this little exercise was. this is viewed, presumably, as a possible outcome that looks less bad than russia simply annexing ukraine from the outside and thus is a conceivable negotiated outcome to avoid an all out war
This guy nailed it. The arent running any fancy plays.
The thing is clearly some attack is underway, and any information will be questionable for a while.
All we know now is Russia seems to be executing the worst case nationwide attack or invasion and we all hope when the smoke clears it was less than that.
For starters freeze any Russian government assets they can. Then just seize any assets held by important people within Russia. Also sanction the fuck out of whatever you can. Unless Putin decides he wants to start shit with NATO, the only options are pretty much economics, given that diplomacy has failed. If they go economic, it needs to really fucking hurt Russia and Russian elites.
Hell, at this point, I know there has been a suggestion to expel Russia from the UN and given how shit has gone down in the last few hours. I'd say it would be a great fucking idea because no Russia with a veto power in that body, will make it much easier to pass UN sanctions. Sure China might decide to be a shithead about it, but that isn't guaranteed, they might just let it slide. Shit like that won't happen if Russia is still in the UN with a veto power.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Likewise, and frustratingly they don't even state which airport. Kiev has three, not clear if they're talking about Antonov, Boryspill or Mizhnarodnyi. If its the last one that's extra terrifying because that's well within the city limits.
Boryspil is where the gunshots are reported
What I've seen it's the Boryspill airport.
Beyond all this. Economic sanctions don’t bite immediately. Nations get used to being international pariahs. Ukraine is dead now and the playing field has changed, and it won’t change back.
NNID: Hakkekage
It's the largest airport in Ukraine and holds military facilities specific to transport and logistics for airborne operations.
Not even sure that's possible unfortunately.
If it was it'd probably send a hell of a message to China wrt to fucking around and finding out though.
NNID: Hakkekage
Yeah if you are trying to take the country not just hold some territory it is the first place your Spetsnaz storm troopers are going to hit.
Most of the news will live stream such events.
NBC's stream aka MSNBC.
CNN live updates with list of all known areas of bombings
NNID: Hakkekage
The goal with the economic front is to make enough Russia elite miserable enough, that they decide they'd rather take their chances throwing comrade Putin under a bus than continuing to have to deal with it. Granted, it's true that they might find enough black market routes to maintain their lifestyle, but I have a feeling that's going to be very hard for most. I think most despotic regimes that keep their elite happy with back channel stuff, had elites that didn't get to enjoy all the creature comforts that Russia's elite currently have. After all, there are just some things you can't buy off the black market and have to do without if you live in the pariah state and can't travel abroad.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Yup. At this point I'm trusting then verifying shit as fast as I can but in general I've made a few friends in Ukraine over the years through gaming sessions at weird hours and I'm letting them throw translated sources at me while dragging what I can off the internet.
pleasepaypreacher.net
Don’t need that explained to me.
NNID: Hakkekage
fuck
And fuck Putin.
they learned their lessons from the past about trying to occupy people who have a lot of aks and dont like russians. they have first mover advantage. they know the west cannot possibly get any significant force to contest them soon; they also know that they get to set up freely in the separatist regions. then the calculus becomes "do we, as the west, who have not much investment in a non-nato member, really want to attack an entrenched russian force in an area that is ok being occupied, or would we rather just negotiate a settlement that means no bloodshed but mild humiliation, mostly paid by the ukranians not us"
its a pretty good equilibrium position
The point of the UN is to stop warfare between the great powers specifically. To the people drafting it, everything else was secondary to preventing a repeat of what they'd all just spent the last 6-8 years enduring.
The P5 got vetos because, back in 1945, none of them were interested in even thinking of being formally constrained and wouldn't have touched the Charter otherwise. People remembered the League of Nations pretty well back then. Their getting effective carte blanche, as much as it sucks, is a feature rather than a bug, and the only times there've been pushback against their using said carte blanche has been when something weird was going on (like the Soviets missing a UNSC vote).
The basic idea was "the Big Five mustn't fight each other, can usually do what they will otherwise, and reserve the right to step in to prevent anyone else from fighting should they agree to do so."
That is some fascinating rules lawyering.
Is... this White Phosphorous?
Is Russia just deciding that in for a penny in for a pound with war crimes
Militaryland.net are as far as I can tell some jingoist military types, but they're just posting footage in real time