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Sorry for [Party] Rocking

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  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    edited May 14
    According to a poll from last September - and I think it's a fair assumption that the breakdown today is probably comparable - about 2/3 of the unvaccinated are that way by choice, and by stupid choice at that. 8% say they don't have the time, and let's be charitable and assume those are all "can't afford to take time off work" and not "ugh, I'd have to skip my pilates class."

    There are 28% who say they are "worried about the side effects" which would include, I assume, both "what if I get too sick and miss a day of work I can't afford" and "but uncle Chet said the vaccine made him impotent". I would wager the vast majority of those are of the uncle Chet variety, but I can't be certain.

    But can we safely agree that at minimum 75% of the unvaccinated are that way by stupid-ass choice, and probably closer to 90%?

    Yes, it's crap that some people have to weigh their income against their health, and yes, the Biden administration could probably be doing more to help them out. But I think it's important to have a realistic idea of the scope of the problem.

    If you are unvaccinated at this point, you are very likely an idiot. This doesn't mean we don't need to have an effective means of helping out the ones who have compelling reasons to be unvaccinated, but I mean, if you're a betting man...

    ElJeffe on
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  • MatevMatev Cero Miedo Registered User regular
    edited May 14
    I mean, I'd rather just make sure the vaccine's also available for the dumbasses in case they decide that losing their sense of taste and smell isn't that fun (And y'know, the whole dying thing) but god forbid the administration think ahead in a way that helps the average American rather than the pocket books of their donors.

    Matev on
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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Matev wrote: »
    I mean, I'd rather just make sure the vaccine's also available for the dumbasses in case they decide that losing their sense of taste and smell isn't that fun (And y'know, the whole dying thing) but god forbid the administration think ahead in a way that helps the average American rather than the pocket books of their donors.

    It's not even venal corruption as best I can tell. Just bored privileged Harvard educated white dudes spinning a narrative out of whole cloth that all the key figures in the administration read. David Leonhardt, Matt Yglesias, David Shor, etc.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
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  • DaypigeonDaypigeon Registered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    According to a poll from last September - and I think it's a fair assumption that the breakdown today is probably comparable - about 2/3 of the unvaccinated are that way by choice, and by stupid choice at that. 8% say they don't have the time, and let's be charitable and assume those are all "can't afford to take time off work" and not "ugh, I'd have to skip my pilates class."

    There are 28% who say they are "worried about the side effects" which would include, I assume, both "what if I get too sick and miss a day of work I can't afford" and "but uncle Chet said the vaccine made him impotent". I would wager the vast majority of those are of the uncle Chet variety, but I can't be certain.

    But can we safely agree that at minimum 75% of the unvaccinated are that way by stupid-ass choice, and probably closer to 90%?

    Yes, it's crap that some people have to weigh their income against their health, and yes, the Biden administration could probably be doing more to help them out. But I think it's important to have a realistic idea of the scope of the problem.

    If you are unvaccinated at this point, you are very likely an idiot. This doesn't mean we don't need to have an effective means of helping out the ones who have compelling reasons to be unvaccinated, but I mean, if you're a betting man...
    even if we take your assumptions as all correct and sure, only ten percent of the unvaccinated are that way against their own preferences, we're still talking about millions of people

    focusing on "any given person in this group is probably just an asshole" obscures the scope of the problem

  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    Matev wrote: »
    I mean, I'd rather just make sure the vaccine's also available for the dumbasses in case they decide that losing their sense of taste and smell isn't that fun (And y'know, the whole dying thing) but god forbid the administration think ahead in a way that helps the average American rather than the pocket books of their donors.

    Oh absolutely. There should be enough vaccines for every man, woman, child and hamster in this country to get as many as they want. And efforts to make it trivially easy for those people to get the vaccines. And something like two guaranteed paid days off to let folks get the vaccine and cover any side effect period.

    And if a big chunk of the country decide they want to own the libs by dying of covid, I mean, that's one way to turn the country bluer.

    Maddie: "I named my feet. The left one is flip and the right one is flop. Oh, and also I named my flip-flops."
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  • DarkPrimusDarkPrimus Registered User regular
    edited May 14
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    According to a poll from last September - and I think it's a fair assumption that the breakdown today is probably comparable - about 2/3 of the unvaccinated are that way by choice, and by stupid choice at that. 8% say they don't have the time, and let's be charitable and assume those are all "can't afford to take time off work" and not "ugh, I'd have to skip my pilates class."

    There are 28% who say they are "worried about the side effects" which would include, I assume, both "what if I get too sick and miss a day of work I can't afford" and "but uncle Chet said the vaccine made him impotent". I would wager the vast majority of those are of the uncle Chet variety, but I can't be certain.

    But can we safely agree that at minimum 75% of the unvaccinated are that way by stupid-ass choice, and probably closer to 90%?

    Yes, it's crap that some people have to weigh their income against their health, and yes, the Biden administration could probably be doing more to help them out. But I think it's important to have a realistic idea of the scope of the problem.

    If you are unvaccinated at this point, you are very likely an idiot. This doesn't mean we don't need to have an effective means of helping out the ones who have compelling reasons to be unvaccinated, but I mean, if you're a betting man...

    Your assumptions don't line up with the statistics on the politics, is the thing, Jeffe.

    Looking at the data from the US Census Bureau from December 2021, we have these findings:
    Adults who had not received any doses of the COVID vaccine differed from those who had received at least one dose of a COVID vaccine across several measures.
    • They were younger, on average, than those who had been vaccinated. Roughly 75% of the unvaccinated were under age 50. Among the vaccinated, less than half were under age 50.
    • They had lower levels of education, on average, than those who were vaccinated. Survey respondents who had received at least one dose were twice as likely as the unvaccinated to have a college degree or higher.
    • They were much less likely than vaccinated adults to be married (46% vs 56%).

    The share of unvaccinated non-Hispanic White adults was not different from the share who were vaccinated. The same was true for Hispanic adults.

    But non-Hispanic Black adults were slightly more represented among the unvaccinated (13%) than the vaccinated (11%), a small but statistically significant difference.

    There were notable differences for the Asian population, however: 6% of the vaccinated were non-Hispanic Asian but only 1% of the unvaccinated were non-Hispanic Asian.

    But what's the demographic that make up MAGA Trumpists? Well as this University of Washington study found:
    As the results make clear, they’re not a terribly diverse group: at least 60 percent of them are White, Christian and male. Further, around half are retired, over 65 years of age, and earn at least $50K per year. Finally, roughly 30 percent have at least a college degree. That MAGA supporters are older, Christian, men, more than half of whom are retired, comports with the now-familiar images of the Capitol riots. What may seem a bit surprising is that about half are middle-class by income, and almost 1/3 are middle-class by educational criteria.

    DarkPrimus on
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  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    They don't support the assertion that people were having trouble getting time off work:
    Unvaccinated adults who responded to the survey could select more than one reason:

    About half reported that they were concerned about possible side effects of the vaccine.
    About 42% reported that they “don’t trust the COVID-19 vaccine.”
    Less than 10% reported that they hadn’t gotten the vaccine because their doctor had not recommended it.
    About 2% reported not getting the vaccine because of difficulty obtaining it.

    also those first two reasons are mostly from antivaxxer nonsense. Especially the second one. If you look at the full graph it's a who's who of all the anti-vaxxer talking points except the complete gibberish stuff. Whether or not the respondants were themselves antivaxxers they're definitely influenced by it.

  • DarkPrimusDarkPrimus Registered User regular
    Phoenix-D wrote: »
    They don't support the assertion that people were having trouble getting time off work:
    Unvaccinated adults who responded to the survey could select more than one reason:

    About half reported that they were concerned about possible side effects of the vaccine.
    About 42% reported that they “don’t trust the COVID-19 vaccine.”
    Less than 10% reported that they hadn’t gotten the vaccine because their doctor had not recommended it.
    About 2% reported not getting the vaccine because of difficulty obtaining it.

    also those first two reasons are mostly from antivaxxer nonsense. Especially the second one. If you look at the full graph it's a who's who of all the anti-vaxxer talking points except the complete gibberish stuff. Whether or not the respondants were themselves antivaxxers they're definitely influenced by it.

    Being worried about missing time from work you can't afford to miss isn't "concerned about possible side effects of the vaccine?"

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  • LanzLanz Registered User regular
    edited May 14
    Getting time off work to get vaccinated is an issue, particularly when you consider that they will have responsibilities to attend to outside of work and in many places getting jabbed will not be a quick in and out deal, and may take up to half and hour to an hour of your day depending on various factors. It is, perhaps, more doable than not, but it is something to consider a factor rather than a convenient “well I could do it…” brush off.


    Getting time off work to be laid out because your immune response dice roll was “Why is Keith David screaming ‘welcome to hell motherfucker’ at me please just let me lay down,” is an even more difficult issue and we have not systematized the remedies for it (and, in fact, allowed and even encouraged the development of a system that will penalize you for trying to do so)

    And again:

    100 million infections expected this fall and winter by the white house

    And so far it’s looking like we’re not going to get any purchase of vaccines made in time for the fall and winter, which means the companies are not going to manufacture them in the qualities we need, which means we’re already talking about rationing access. Which means, ultimately, much like the rest of the world, not everyone who wants or needs them will get them.


    The Defense Production Act is right. Fucking. There.

    Lanz on
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  • LanzLanz Registered User regular
    edited May 14
    .

    Lanz on
  • Snake GandhiSnake Gandhi Des Moines, IARegistered User regular
    I feel like some of you folks are really infantilizing poor people. I'm a poor guy living paycheck to paycheck and taking care of a disabled parent and I still found time to walk my fat ass to the nearest pharmacy and get my shot and my booster. Even living in the shittiest part of a shitty city there were plenty of places to get a free vaccine. None of the reluctance I've seen has had anything to do with 'I don't know if I have the time?' or 'I might miss work', it's all 'I don't know if it's safe.' and 'I heard on Facebook...' nonsense.

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  • jungleroomxjungleroomx It's never too many graves, it's always not enough shovels Registered User regular
    edited May 14
    DarkPrimus wrote: »
    Phoenix-D wrote: »
    They don't support the assertion that people were having trouble getting time off work:
    Unvaccinated adults who responded to the survey could select more than one reason:

    About half reported that they were concerned about possible side effects of the vaccine.
    About 42% reported that they “don’t trust the COVID-19 vaccine.”
    Less than 10% reported that they hadn’t gotten the vaccine because their doctor had not recommended it.
    About 2% reported not getting the vaccine because of difficulty obtaining it.

    also those first two reasons are mostly from antivaxxer nonsense. Especially the second one. If you look at the full graph it's a who's who of all the anti-vaxxer talking points except the complete gibberish stuff. Whether or not the respondants were themselves antivaxxers they're definitely influenced by it.

    Being worried about missing time from work you can't afford to miss isn't "concerned about possible side effects of the vaccine?"

    It's specificity not backed up by anything, and the core conceit of the anti-vax movement is fear of the side effects.

    And "difficulty obtaining it" can mean that exact same thing.

    jungleroomx on
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  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    DarkPrimus wrote: »
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    According to a poll from last September - and I think it's a fair assumption that the breakdown today is probably comparable - about 2/3 of the unvaccinated are that way by choice, and by stupid choice at that. 8% say they don't have the time, and let's be charitable and assume those are all "can't afford to take time off work" and not "ugh, I'd have to skip my pilates class."

    There are 28% who say they are "worried about the side effects" which would include, I assume, both "what if I get too sick and miss a day of work I can't afford" and "but uncle Chet said the vaccine made him impotent". I would wager the vast majority of those are of the uncle Chet variety, but I can't be certain.

    But can we safely agree that at minimum 75% of the unvaccinated are that way by stupid-ass choice, and probably closer to 90%?

    Yes, it's crap that some people have to weigh their income against their health, and yes, the Biden administration could probably be doing more to help them out. But I think it's important to have a realistic idea of the scope of the problem.

    If you are unvaccinated at this point, you are very likely an idiot. This doesn't mean we don't need to have an effective means of helping out the ones who have compelling reasons to be unvaccinated, but I mean, if you're a betting man...

    Your assumptions don't line up with the statistics on the politics, is the thing, Jeffe.

    Looking at the data from the US Census Bureau from December 2021, we have these findings:
    Adults who had not received any doses of the COVID vaccine differed from those who had received at least one dose of a COVID vaccine across several measures.
    • They were younger, on average, than those who had been vaccinated. Roughly 75% of the unvaccinated were under age 50. Among the vaccinated, less than half were under age 50.
    • They had lower levels of education, on average, than those who were vaccinated. Survey respondents who had received at least one dose were twice as likely as the unvaccinated to have a college degree or higher.
    • They were much less likely than vaccinated adults to be married (46% vs 56%).

    The share of unvaccinated non-Hispanic White adults was not different from the share who were vaccinated. The same was true for Hispanic adults.

    But non-Hispanic Black adults were slightly more represented among the unvaccinated (13%) than the vaccinated (11%), a small but statistically significant difference.

    There were notable differences for the Asian population, however: 6% of the vaccinated were non-Hispanic Asian but only 1% of the unvaccinated were non-Hispanic Asian.

    But what's the demographic that make up MAGA Trumpists? Well as this University of Washington study found:
    As the results make clear, they’re not a terribly diverse group: at least 60 percent of them are White, Christian and male. Further, around half are retired, over 65 years of age, and earn at least $50K per year. Finally, roughly 30 percent have at least a college degree. That MAGA supporters are older, Christian, men, more than half of whom are retired, comports with the now-familiar images of the Capitol riots. What may seem a bit surprising is that about half are middle-class by income, and almost 1/3 are middle-class by educational criteria.

    I'm not sure of the relevance of your census study? Are you saying that the poll I cited was wrong because the demographics of the unvaccinated don't line up with the demographics of fervent Trump supporters?

    My point wasn't necessarily "all of the unvaccinated are right wing Trumpers," it was "most of the unvaccinated are that way by choice, not because they were unable to get a vaccine." It's also the case, per that poll, that Dems are much most likely to be vaccinated than Pubs.

    So I don't think imagining the average non-vax person as a Republican who just doesn't want to get a shot for vapid reasons is all that off base, even if that description doesn't apply to all of them.

    Maddie: "I named my feet. The left one is flip and the right one is flop. Oh, and also I named my flip-flops."
  • DarkPrimusDarkPrimus Registered User regular
    edited May 15
    So they're unvaccinated "by choice" in that they "chose" not to get vaccinated rather than lose income/employment that they need to survive?

    Y'all are trying to assert that the people who "chose" not to be vaccinated did so because of odious political reasons, and when I present evidence that calls that into question, you continue with "but they chose it, yeah?"

    DarkPrimus on
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  • rahkeesh2000rahkeesh2000 Registered User regular
    There's also a huge swathe of non-voters or infrequent voters and a handful of undecideds. Not everyone is D or R and there's plenty of room for anti-vaxxing in that space, at least at a low key enough level to feel that vaccinating themselves is too risky or not useful.

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  • LanzLanz Registered User regular
  • jungleroomxjungleroomx It's never too many graves, it's always not enough shovels Registered User regular
    edited May 15
    DarkPrimus wrote: »
    So they're unvaccinated "by choice" in that they "chose" not to get vaccinated rather than lose income/employment that they need to survive?

    Y'all are trying to assert that the people who "chose" not to be vaccinated did so because of odious political reasons, and when I present evidence that calls that into question, you continue with "but they chose it, yeah?"

    I didn’t assert anything other than you can’t tell by the poll provided. Because you can’t without making logical leaps.

    All we know is 2% said they wanted it but couldn’t get it.

    Everything else is pure guesswork or trying to squeeze personal anecdotes into actual data.

    jungleroomx on
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  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    edited May 15
    DarkPrimus wrote: »
    So they're unvaccinated "by choice" in that they "chose" not to get vaccinated rather than lose income/employment that they need to survive?

    Y'all are trying to assert that the people who "chose" not to be vaccinated did so because of odious political reasons, and when I present evidence that calls that into question, you continue with "but they chose it, yeah?"

    The total who were not vaccinated because they: don't trust the government; don't trust vaccines; don't trust drug companies; don't think they'll get covid; don't think covid vaccines work; and already had covid totals about two thirds of the unvaccinated. Are you saying those somehow qualify as "can't afford to take time off work"? Or are you saying the poll is lying? Or that the people are lying?

    Another quarter say they worry about side effects. I am granting that some - though not all - of those might be interpreted as "worried that the side effects will make them miss work that they can't afford to miss", though we know for a fact not all of them are that way.

    Only 8% straight up said they don't have time to get vaccinated. Hence my statement that the number who are unvaccinated because they can't risk missing work are probably somewhere between 10-25%.

    I specifically said that the poll doesn't show that all the unvaccinated are Republicans refusing for political reasons, only that a sizeable majority are refusing for dumb reasons. If you think "doesn't think vaccines work" or whatever isn't a dumb reason, agree to disagree.

    If you think the poll is a lying liar, fine, say that. If you didn't bother following the link because clicking a button is hard, that's cool, too, i should've probably screen capped the poll results. But don't pretend I don't know how numbers work.

    ElJeffe on
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  • R-demR-dem Registered User regular
    edited May 15
    .

    R-dem on
  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    edited May 15
    DarkPrimus wrote: »
    So they're unvaccinated "by choice" in that they "chose" not to get vaccinated rather than lose income/employment that they need to survive?

    Y'all are trying to assert that the people who "chose" not to be vaccinated did so because of odious political reasons, and when I present evidence that calls that into question, you continue with "but they chose it, yeah?"

    Except your evidence doesn't disprove anything? And there's plenty showing what we're saying, such as

    https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/press-release/unvaccinated-adults-are-now-more-than-three-times-as-likely-to-lean-republican-than-democratic/
    Controlling for other factors, a Republican is 26 percentage points more likely than a Democrat to remain unvaccinated. This gap is greater than the gaps between racial and ethnic groups, people with varying education levels, people who are insured and uninsured, different age groups, or people who live in rural versus urban areas.

    The analysis also examines differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated Republicans. Unvaccinated Republicans are more likely than vaccinated ones to believe that the news exaggerates the seriousness of the pandemic (88% v. 54%) and that getting vaccinated is a personal choice (96% v. 73%).

    Phoenix-D on
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  • LanzLanz Registered User regular
    edited May 15
    Phoenix-D wrote: »
    DarkPrimus wrote: »
    So they're unvaccinated "by choice" in that they "chose" not to get vaccinated rather than lose income/employment that they need to survive?

    Y'all are trying to assert that the people who "chose" not to be vaccinated did so because of odious political reasons, and when I present evidence that calls that into question, you continue with "but they chose it, yeah?"

    Except your evidence doesn't disprove anything? And there's plenty showing what we're saying, such as

    https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/press-release/unvaccinated-adults-are-now-more-than-three-times-as-likely-to-lean-republican-than-democratic/
    Controlling for other factors, a Republican is 26 percentage points more likely than a Democrat to remain unvaccinated. This gap is greater than the gaps between racial and ethnic groups, people with varying education levels, people who are insured and uninsured, different age groups, or people who live in rural versus urban areas.

    The analysis also examines differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated Republicans. Unvaccinated Republicans are more likely than vaccinated ones to believe that the news exaggerates the seriousness of the pandemic (88% v. 54%) and that getting vaccinated is a personal choice (96% v. 73%).

    54% and 73% are not good numbers for those metrics!

    They are lower than the Republican ones, but it’s like, if you got a perfectly healthy leg, are you going to be happy with “just” 54% of your leg being amputated?

    That’s still over half the group! It’s not good if just over half of democrats think that the news is exaggerating the seriousness of the pandemic, and reflects a deeper systemic problem than just “those fucking republicans”!

    Lanz on
  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    Those are both referring to Republicans. The lower number are the vaccinated Republicans.

    jmcdonaldFencingsax
  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    itt: numbers are hard

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  • zagdrobzagdrob Registered User regular
    And even if numbers are hard, a year on after vaccines are just available arguing someone is working too many hours to find time to get vaccinated is silly.

    At this point it's a choice not to get vaccinated. There have been opportunities for everyone. Regardless of the hours you work.

    jmcdonaldKnuckle DraggerMonwyn
  • LanzLanz Registered User regular
    edited May 15
    Phoenix-D wrote: »
    Those are both referring to Republicans. The lower number are the vaccinated Republicans.

    My mistakr

    Edit: you know what going to leave the typo in

    Lanz on
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  • LanzLanz Registered User regular
    That all said, we still have the issue that the current vaccines appear to be losing their effectiveness and the funding for boosters is still, well, fucked

    We can already see what’s happening as the previous dosages see their protection wane:
    Since COVID-19 vaccines became widely available, there has been a wide gap in deaths between the vaccinated and unvaccinated.

    But recent COVID deaths are much more evenly split as highly transmissible variants take hold, vaccine protection wanes and booster uptake stagnates.

    Breakthrough infections have become more common in recent months, putting vulnerable populations at increased risk of severe disease or death as more and more transmissible variants continue to spread. This seems to be especially true for seniors in the United States, who were among the first to get their initial vaccine series.

    In the second half of September — the height of the delta wave — less than a quarter of all COVID-19 deaths were among vaccinated people, federal data shows. But in January and February, amid the omicron surge, more than 40% of COVID-19 deaths were among vaccinated people.

    CNN story hosted via a Maine local news station: https://www.wmtw.com/article/more-covid-19-deaths-among-vaccinated/39970045

    The combination of returning the populace to normalcy, while vaccine protection wanes and a lack of updated boosters is going to be utterly disasterous

  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    edited May 15
    zagdrob wrote: »
    And even if numbers are hard, a year on after vaccines are just available arguing someone is working too many hours to find time to get vaccinated is silly.

    At this point it's a choice not to get vaccinated. There have been opportunities for everyone. Regardless of the hours you work.

    I can absolutely see a nonzero number of people who really can't afford to give up even a single day of work and their boss is a dick who won't accommodate them or cover the expense. They aren't the norm, but they're out there and need to be taken care of somehow.

    ElJeffe on
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  • DarkPrimusDarkPrimus Registered User regular
    edited May 15
    All of this spun out of people trying to run damage control for Biden to excuse the number of people dead during the pandemic under his tenure.

    So I guess if you want to go from that angle, then let's be fair. How many deaths are we excusing in such a manner that the Trump administration isn't responsible for, then?

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  • jungleroomxjungleroomx It's never too many graves, it's always not enough shovels Registered User regular
    DarkPrimus wrote: »
    All of this spun out of people trying to run damage control for Biden to excuse the number of people dead during the pandemic under his tenure.

    So I guess if you want to go from that angle, then let's be fair. How many deaths are we excusing in such a manner that the Trump administration isn't responsible for, then?

    Political sportsball. Ugh.

    AimadytumHappylilElfzepherin
  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    Lanz wrote: »
    That all said, we still have the issue that the current vaccines appear to be losing their effectiveness and the funding for boosters is still, well, fucked

    We can already see what’s happening as the previous dosages see their protection wane:
    Since COVID-19 vaccines became widely available, there has been a wide gap in deaths between the vaccinated and unvaccinated.

    But recent COVID deaths are much more evenly split as highly transmissible variants take hold, vaccine protection wanes and booster uptake stagnates.

    Breakthrough infections have become more common in recent months, putting vulnerable populations at increased risk of severe disease or death as more and more transmissible variants continue to spread. This seems to be especially true for seniors in the United States, who were among the first to get their initial vaccine series.

    In the second half of September — the height of the delta wave — less than a quarter of all COVID-19 deaths were among vaccinated people, federal data shows. But in January and February, amid the omicron surge, more than 40% of COVID-19 deaths were among vaccinated people.

    CNN story hosted via a Maine local news station: https://www.wmtw.com/article/more-covid-19-deaths-among-vaccinated/39970045

    The combination of returning the populace to normalcy, while vaccine protection wanes and a lack of updated boosters is going to be utterly disasterous

    Hmm.

    I am not saying this is the case, but I'm curious about these numbers.

    Say, for example, your odds of dying from covid are 20% if you're unvax, and 1% of your vax. We start with 50% of the nation being vax. And your chances of getting covid are 10% if you're vax and 30% of you're not.

    Based on this, you would expect 300M*50%*30%*20% = 9M dead who are unvax and 300M*50%*10%*1% = 150k dead who are vax. About 98% of your dead are unvax.

    Fast forward and nothing changes except now 90% of your population is vax.

    You now have 300M*10%*30%*20% = 1.8M dead who are unvax. And 300M*90%*10%*1% = 270k who are vax. Now you have only 87% of your dead being unvax. Nothing has changed but the number of people who are vaccinated, but the result of that is a higher percentage of the dead being vax.

    I made up numbers based on what was easy to calculate in my head, but the point is that if all that changed is that more people are vaccinated, we would expect to see a higher percentage of the dead being vaccinated.

    Not saying this is definitely the case - I would have to see raw data and run numbers - but my data brain is wondering.

    Maddie: "I named my feet. The left one is flip and the right one is flop. Oh, and also I named my flip-flops."
  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    edited May 15
    DarkPrimus wrote: »
    All of this spun out of people trying to run damage control for Biden to excuse the number of people dead during the pandemic under his tenure.

    So I guess if you want to go from that angle, then let's be fair. How many deaths are we excusing in such a manner that the Trump administration isn't responsible for, then?

    The GOP is deliberately punching their voters in the dick because their deaths are useful political props against Biden. And they are responsible for blocking additional money for COVID relief.

    This is Biden's fault because...? Is he supposed to tie these people down and vaccinate them? Magically make the Republican judges who keep throwing out COVID mitigation measures change their minds?

    Also if these posts are damage control, what are the posts lying about what Trump did in order to make Biden look worse than he is? Because if you say Biden and Trump are the same on this you are lying, and you are doing so in support of the worst people in this country.

    Phoenix-D on
    jmcdonaldshrykezepherin
  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    DarkPrimus wrote: »
    All of this spun out of people trying to run damage control for Biden to excuse the number of people dead during the pandemic under his tenure.

    So I guess if you want to go from that angle, then let's be fair. How many deaths are we excusing in such a manner that the Trump administration isn't responsible for, then?

    A big number of deaths were unavoidable no matter what. So Trump isn't responsible for all of them. His biggest failing was not his crappy response, but rather his turning it into a political issue to begin with. That right there will kill millions.

    Beyond that, yeah, some deaths weren't Trump's fault and some weren't Biden's fault and others were and I don't feel like doing this particular band of DeathMath(tm) because now I'm depressed.

    Maddie: "I named my feet. The left one is flip and the right one is flop. Oh, and also I named my flip-flops."
    SleepzagdrobKnuckle DraggerjungleroomxFencingsaxStabbity Stylejmcdonaldshrykezepherin
  • LanzLanz Registered User regular
    The past few months have seen a significant rise in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths among the fully vaccinated portion of the Pennsylvania populace.

    And, the data at best are five weeks old.

    The most recent sign of the trend is the latest Tower Health update, which showed on Tuesday that eight of the 11 patients were considered fully vaccinated.

    That criteria is the two-dose course of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines or the single dose of the Johnson & Johnson product. But, the fully vaccinated moniker sticks no matter how long it has been since the latest shot, and vaccinations have slowed to a trickle.



    As overall cases declined through February and into April, the percentage of the cases among the vaccinated began to increase. The baseline had been in the 20% to 25% range but:

    • 56% of cases for the 35 days ending April 11.

    • 37% of the hospitalizations for the same period.

    • 47% of the deaths in February.

    It’s unclear why the death data isn’t more up to date.

    https://www.readingeagle.com/2022/05/14/covid-cases-hospitalizations-and-deaths-among-vaccinated-rising/amp/

    More in link

  • Knuckle DraggerKnuckle Dragger Explosive Ovine Disposal Registered User regular
    The most recent sign of the trend is the latest Tower Health update, which showed on Tuesday that eight of the 11 patients were considered fully vaccinated.

    That's a fucking nuclear take, when their own link shows that, across all the hospitals listed, the number was 22 vaccinated patients out of 64 admitted, and the hospital they were cherry picking their numbers from was literally the one outlier that had more vaccinated than unvaccinated inpatients.

    I'd rather be led by a comedian than ruled by a joke.
  • LanzLanz Registered User regular
    edited May 15
    The most recent sign of the trend is the latest Tower Health update, which showed on Tuesday that eight of the 11 patients were considered fully vaccinated.

    That's a fucking nuclear take, when their own link shows that, across all the hospitals listed, the number was 22 vaccinated patients out of 64 admitted, and the hospital they were cherry picking their numbers from was literally the one outlier that had more vaccinated than unvaccinated inpatients.

    Knuckle, it’s the Reading Eagle, talking about Reading Hospital

    Is it cherry picking to talk about your local hospital?

    Lanz on
  • HefflingHeffling No Pic EverRegistered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    DarkPrimus wrote: »
    All of this spun out of people trying to run damage control for Biden to excuse the number of people dead during the pandemic under his tenure.

    So I guess if you want to go from that angle, then let's be fair. How many deaths are we excusing in such a manner that the Trump administration isn't responsible for, then?

    A big number of deaths were unavoidable no matter what. So Trump isn't responsible for all of them. His biggest failing was not his crappy response, but rather his turning it into a political issue to begin with. That right there will kill millions.

    Beyond that, yeah, some deaths weren't Trump's fault and some weren't Biden's fault and others were and I don't feel like doing this particular band of DeathMath(tm) because now I'm depressed.

    I strongly disagree. Look at how China or South Korea have been able to handle Covid. The governments mandated all but the truly critical services be closed down and put the lives of their citizens ahead of the profits of their rich. China has 5 times the population of the US, but has had less than 2% of the cases that the US has experiences, with a similar dramatically lower number of deaths. Trump dropped the ball and Biden is keeping us at status quo, with the ball dropped and now rolling away.

  • LanzLanz Registered User regular
    Heffling wrote: »
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    DarkPrimus wrote: »
    All of this spun out of people trying to run damage control for Biden to excuse the number of people dead during the pandemic under his tenure.

    So I guess if you want to go from that angle, then let's be fair. How many deaths are we excusing in such a manner that the Trump administration isn't responsible for, then?

    A big number of deaths were unavoidable no matter what. So Trump isn't responsible for all of them. His biggest failing was not his crappy response, but rather his turning it into a political issue to begin with. That right there will kill millions.

    Beyond that, yeah, some deaths weren't Trump's fault and some weren't Biden's fault and others were and I don't feel like doing this particular band of DeathMath(tm) because now I'm depressed.

    I strongly disagree. Look at how China or South Korea have been able to handle Covid. The governments mandated all but the truly critical services be closed down and put the lives of their citizens ahead of the profits of their rich. China has 5 times the population of the US, but has had less than 2% of the cases that the US has experiences, with a similar dramatically lower number of deaths. Trump dropped the ball and Biden is keeping us at status quo, with the ball dropped and now rolling away.

    Vietnam (at least before reopening to tourism, haven’t found its stats post-reopening) and Taiwan as well had great success as well

    For Taiwan
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-15/taiwan-s-covid-zero-strategy-quashes-latest-omicron-outbreak
    Taiwan looks to have successfully brought the latest Covid-19 outbreak under control with no new local Covid-19 cases or deaths on Monday.

    The average number of cases fell to less than three per day over the last week, according to Bloomberg calculations based on government data, the lowest since early January when the omicron variant started spreading widely in the community. That situation is in stark contrast with the thousands of new cases Hong Kong is reporting each day or the growing outbreak in mainland China.

    Taiwan’s success is built on thorough quarantine at the border and contract tracing to quickly find and isolate people who are infected or have been in contact with those who are. There’s little sign of the government changing course anytime soon.

    link has an interactive graph that I can’t embed for obvious reasons of being an interactive asset.

  • Knuckle DraggerKnuckle Dragger Explosive Ovine Disposal Registered User regular
    Lanz wrote: »
    The most recent sign of the trend is the latest Tower Health update, which showed on Tuesday that eight of the 11 patients were considered fully vaccinated.

    That's a fucking nuclear take, when their own link shows that, across all the hospitals listed, the number was 22 vaccinated patients out of 64 admitted, and the hospital they were cherry picking their numbers from was literally the one outlier that had more vaccinated than unvaccinated inpatients.

    [looks at the news outlet’s name]
    “Reading Eagle”

    [looks at the hospital with the eight out of 11 patients being vaccinated]
    “Reading Hospital”

    Is it cherry picking to talk about the Hospital in your municipality?

    You'd look like less of a goose if you spent more time reading your own sources and less time trying to be snarky and clever. Literally the first sentence of the article states:
    The past few months have seen a significant rise in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths among the fully vaccinated portion of the Pennsylvania populace.

    So yeah, they are making a statement about cases across the state in general, and not only excluded most of the relevant data, but also kept the only subset that supported their argument. That's pretty much a textbook case of cherry picking.

    I'd rather be led by a comedian than ruled by a joke.
    ElvenshaejmcdonaldLanlaornNobodyadytumshryke
  • LanzLanz Registered User regular
    Lanz wrote: »
    The most recent sign of the trend is the latest Tower Health update, which showed on Tuesday that eight of the 11 patients were considered fully vaccinated.

    That's a fucking nuclear take, when their own link shows that, across all the hospitals listed, the number was 22 vaccinated patients out of 64 admitted, and the hospital they were cherry picking their numbers from was literally the one outlier that had more vaccinated than unvaccinated inpatients.

    [looks at the news outlet’s name]
    “Reading Eagle”

    [looks at the hospital with the eight out of 11 patients being vaccinated]
    “Reading Hospital”

    Is it cherry picking to talk about the Hospital in your municipality?

    You'd look like less of a goose if you spent more time reading your own sources and less time trying to be snarky and clever. Literally the first sentence of the article states:
    The past few months have seen a significant rise in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths among the fully vaccinated portion of the Pennsylvania populace.

    So yeah, they are making a statement about cases across the state in general, and not only excluded most of the relevant data, but also kept the only subset that supported their argument. That's pretty much a textbook case of cherry picking.

    I read it just fine, Knuckle.

    I also notice you’re picking on, say, the Reading Eagle talking about a surge of cases at Reading Eagle, proclaiming it cherry picking, and then just kind of completely glossing over the second half of what I quoted:

    As overall cases declined through February and into April, the percentage of the cases among the vaccinated began to increase. The baseline had been in the 20% to 25% range but:

    • 56% of cases for the 35 days ending April 11.

    • 37% of the hospitalizations for the same period.

    • 47% of the deaths in February.

    It’s unclear why the death data isn’t more up to date.

    Like, this isn’t exactly controversial shit. It’s not declaring vaccines are fake or whatever nonsense. We’ve known for a while now that these vaccines have a limited potency that necessitate boosters to keep up with keeping people protected, and particularly against new variants. And now we’re getting further and further from the initial set of boosters and seeing that fade, and again, moving into a period of time where the supply of additional vaccines is failing to materialize.

    This is again the problem with trying to pretend that the vaccines are the Sure Fire Single Bullet that Ends the Pandemic, which has been the focus of this administration since last year. They’re not. As WHO’s Regional Director for the Western Pacific Dr. Takeshi Kasai wrote at the start of last year:
    Current evidence shows that the existing COVID-19 vaccines are effective at stopping disease, but we still don’t know if they prevent people from becoming infected with the virus. This means that being vaccinated will stop you getting sick, but it may not prevent you from passing the virus onto others. It is also the case that while these new vaccines are very promising, no vaccine is 100% effective. So even once vaccines are rolled out, we must maintain adherence to all the other measures that we know work to stop transmission of COVID-19.

    https://www.who.int/vietnam/news/commentaries/detail/covid-19-vaccines-offer-hope-but-are-not-a-silver-bullet

    And the fact of the matter is, we absolutely, positively have not maintained that adherence. As soon as the vaccines came on the scene, the push began to reopen everything, and only accelerated as the summer of 2021 progressed, all under the watch of the Biden administration and under the advisement not of doctors, but of businessmen like Jeffery Zients.

    For a while now, experts have been pressing what they dub the “Swiss cheese” method of response: the understanding that any single method of pandemic control is insufficient because of their individual inadequacies, but when utilized in concert reinforce one another and vastly cut down on spread and, thus, infection:

    08SCI-cheese-graphic-REV2-superJumbo.png

    But we stopped that. We just cut out every element but the vaccines.

    We reopened restaurants around the country.

    We’ve packed in multiplex after multiplex full of blockbuster movies and celebrated the rebirth of teh cinema going experience, as millions sit in the same room, in the same shared air, for hours at a time, cycling in crowd after crowd to add to lingering airborne spread of SARS-CoV-2

    We’ve never even once allowed any decent protection for retail and service workers, cynically dubbed “essential” while yet continuing to treat them as cogs pulled from a box of countless interchangeable parts

    And steadily, we continue to send even middle class workers back into the office in the midst of a pandemic.


    And the Biden Administration celebrates it all, encourages the return of a pre-COVID normal American life, and does little to actually fight to restore the protections we need, does little to build and maintain the systems that need to be in place or the support structures to make possible a society that can fight this disease and protect itself from it.

    And now, quite simply, they predict we will face 100 million more infections this fall and winter. And the vaccine supply is about to be crunched, hard.

    And some people here seem to think it is unfair to judge this administration for these failures and for its role in promoting the very threats to public health that it has undertaken. They’d rather stay in the past, and ruminate on how bad Trump was, as though that is actually going to fix things, or do anything more than, once more, fuel the (admittedly self-protecting, from a coping mechanism standpoint) smugness that is too often tied into the core of the American Liberal identity as it American Liberalism, far too attuned to the systems of exploitation and destruction that this country relies on to empower the wealthy and powerful oligarchy that ultimately runs this country, continues to be ineffective against the conservative threat that seeks to undo the progress of the 20th century, those things that gave the most privileged of us to be content in that limited and, as we now see, fragile progress.

    Dee KaeMan in the MistsBrainleechBloodsheedDarkPrimusHacksawMatevFeloniousmozYamiB.
  • knitdanknitdan Registered User regular
    A big reason we as a country phased out every mitigation except the vaccines was we had activist judges saying nope, you can't require those extra things.


    “I was quick when I came in here, I’m twice as quick now”
    -Indiana Solo, runner of blades
    jmcdonaldzepherin
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