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The Russian-Ukrainian [War]

JusticeforPlutoJusticeforPluto Registered User regular
The biggest news recently has been the fact that the Battle for Mariupol is mostly over, with the renaming Ukranian forces and some civilians trapped inside the Azovstal steel works. Kherson 's airport, under Russian occupation, also keeps getting bombed somehow. The east around Donetsk seems oddly quite, either this is the best Russia can muster or they haven't made their big play there yet.

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  • WeaverWeaver Who are you? What do you want?Registered User regular
    Thanks for the new thread.

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  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    On exploring the impact of the war, Times Network on India hosted the India Economic Conclave, the largest economic forum on India, that sets the agenda for India's economic policy. On Ukraine in particular and it's effect on the global economy and how that affects India, they had:
    • UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
    • Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
    • Ukraine Minister of Culture and Information Policy Oleksandr Tkachenko.
    • Chess Grandmaster and Political Analyst Garry Kasparov.
    • Former Supreme Allied Commander Europe and retured US Admiral James Stavridis.
    • Geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan.

    So that's a strong list of people that either have direct influence on the outcome of the war, that held positions that would have direct impact on the outcome on the war or that were correct on their predictions of how this war was going to develop. Can see the interventions here:


    Just saw Zeihan's interview, talking about how Russia feels that they need to control a lot of territory that does not belong to them far beyond just Ukraine for security reasons (even though nobody is going to invade a country with nukes), how the Russian demographic crisis means that is now or never, particulary interesting is the question about inmigration, in short, between racism, tapping out on immigration from former Soviet republics and guest workers and Russia not being an attractive immigration destiny for obvious reasons that's not happening.

    Finally, how Russia crude is going to leave the market, US crude will follow it because Biden is going to get an even worse beating on the midterms if the US gas prices go even further up and the rest of the world just going to have to suck it up. India however, is on a good position to weather the storm, since having control of the Persian Sea is going to be very important very soon.

  • Inquisitor77Inquisitor77 2 x Penny Arcade Fight Club Champion A fixed point in space and timeRegistered User regular
    The whole "we have to invade everyone so that they don't invade us!" thing is so fucking stupid and just reeks of projection. Once you have nukes that stops becoming an option for anyone, and as we've seen you can have a paper tiger military and that will deter even minor aggression from happening.

    All these fucking morons had to do was have a functioning, integrated economy and everyone would've been happy. Instead we have this current situation and we're all just fucking over it.

    You live in a giant open area. Boo fucking hoo. Plenty of other people live in far worse, far more treacherous, far more vulnerable places, and you don't see them running around fucking everyone over. In fact, many of them are getting fucked over by you. So put on your fucking big boy pants and get over it.

    Like, if it isn't that obsolete, stupid argument then we get some other bullshit about not having year-round access to blue water ports because as we all know every goddamn nation has to have that or they just, you know, collapse into chaos or something. Jesus christ. Fuck. You.

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  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User regular
    Tweeter is a Pentagon correspondent with Reuters:


    ISTANBUL, April 23 (Reuters) - Turkish air space has been closed to military and civilian planes carrying troops from Russia to Syria after consultation with Moscow, Turkey's state broadcaster TRT Haber cited Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu as saying on Saturday.

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  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    The whole "we have to invade everyone so that they don't invade us!" thing is so fucking stupid and just reeks of projection. Once you have nukes that stops becoming an option for anyone, and as we've seen you can have a paper tiger military and that will deter even minor aggression from happening.

    All these fucking morons had to do was have a functioning, integrated economy and everyone would've been happy. Instead we have this current situation and we're all just fucking over it.

    You live in a giant open area. Boo fucking hoo. Plenty of other people live in far worse, far more treacherous, far more vulnerable places, and you don't see them running around fucking everyone over. In fact, many of them are getting fucked over by you. So put on your fucking big boy pants and get over it.

    Like, if it isn't that obsolete, stupid argument then we get some other bullshit about not having year-round access to blue water ports because as we all know every goddamn nation has to have that or they just, you know, collapse into chaos or something. Jesus christ. Fuck. You.

    Note that nobody outside Vlad and his inner circle and his suck ups is saying that is justified. But explaining the thought process of Vlad and the rest of the Soviet relics on his inner circle is important, since it allows people to prepare for his next move if he rolls Ukraine (very likely to be having a go at Poland). It also says that Russian economy taking a beating is not going to stop this by itself.

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    The whole "we have to invade everyone so that they don't invade us!" thing is so fucking stupid and just reeks of projection. Once you have nukes that stops becoming an option for anyone, and as we've seen you can have a paper tiger military and that will deter even minor aggression from happening.

    All these fucking morons had to do was have a functioning, integrated economy and everyone would've been happy. Instead we have this current situation and we're all just fucking over it.

    You live in a giant open area. Boo fucking hoo. Plenty of other people live in far worse, far more treacherous, far more vulnerable places, and you don't see them running around fucking everyone over. In fact, many of them are getting fucked over by you. So put on your fucking big boy pants and get over it.

    Like, if it isn't that obsolete, stupid argument then we get some other bullshit about not having year-round access to blue water ports because as we all know every goddamn nation has to have that or they just, you know, collapse into chaos or something. Jesus christ. Fuck. You.

    Note that nobody outside Vlad and his inner circle and his suck ups is saying that is justified. But explaining the thought process of Vlad and the rest of the Soviet relics on his inner circle is important, since it allows people to prepare for his next move if he rolls Ukraine (very likely to be having a go at Poland). It also says that Russian economy taking a beating is not going to stop this by itself.

    Eh, it will stop it eventually. Just not soon enough to prevent a massive catastrophe. Russia has shown they lack the military capability to invade a single non nato nation effectively. Let alone roll through into Poland. Sanctions mean that their military force is dwindling every day, even if fighting stopped. Albeit they will find a base of local financial carrying capability.

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  • ceresceres When the last moon is cast over the last star of morning And the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderator mod
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »
    Tweeter is a Pentagon correspondent with Reuters:


    ISTANBUL, April 23 (Reuters) - Turkish air space has been closed to military and civilian planes carrying troops from Russia to Syria after consultation with Moscow, Turkey's state broadcaster TRT Haber cited Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu as saying on Saturday.

    Is this air space in general or just traffic to Syria?

    And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
  • GaddezGaddez Registered User regular
    Honestly I think the most amazing thing about that map is the Transnistria section where it shows them as a beligerent.

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  • ScooterScooter Registered User regular
    Because it's Russian-controlled territory with a number of units that will almost certainly invade if Russia ever does actually manage to make it to Odesa.

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  • redxredx I(x)=2(x)+1 whole numbersRegistered User regular
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    On exploring the impact of the war, Times Network on India hosted the India Economic Conclave, the largest economic forum on India, that sets the agenda for India's economic policy. On Ukraine in particular and it's effect on the global economy and how that affects India, they had:
    • UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
    • Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
    • Ukraine Minister of Culture and Information Policy Oleksandr Tkachenko.
    • Chess Grandmaster and Political Analyst Garry Kasparov.
    • Former Supreme Allied Commander Europe and retured US Admiral James Stavridis.
    • Geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan.

    So that's a strong list of people that either have direct influence on the outcome of the war, that held positions that would have direct impact on the outcome on the war or that were correct on their predictions of how this war was going to develop. Can see the interventions here:


    Just saw Zeihan's interview, talking about how Russia feels that they need to control a lot of territory that does not belong to them far beyond just Ukraine for security reasons (even though nobody is going to invade a country with nukes), how the Russian demographic crisis means that is now or never, particulary interesting is the question about inmigration, in short, between racism, tapping out on immigration from former Soviet republics and guest workers and Russia not being an attractive immigration destiny for obvious reasons that's not happening.

    Finally, how Russia crude is going to leave the market, US crude will follow it because Biden is going to get an even worse beating on the midterms if the US gas prices go even further up and the rest of the world just going to have to suck it up. India however, is on a good position to weather the storm, since having control of the Persian Sea is going to be very important very soon.

    That last seems like it would require a greater capacity for America to rapidly retool its refineries to work with American crude than I was given to believe exists.

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  • JusticeforPlutoJusticeforPluto Registered User regular
    Scooter wrote: »
    Because it's Russian-controlled territory with a number of units that will almost certainly invade if Russia ever does actually manage to make it to Odesa.

    This. Russian controlled puppet states are outlined in red. You can see the top of Abkhazia for example.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    The whole "we have to invade everyone so that they don't invade us!" thing is so fucking stupid and just reeks of projection. Once you have nukes that stops becoming an option for anyone, and as we've seen you can have a paper tiger military and that will deter even minor aggression from happening.

    All these fucking morons had to do was have a functioning, integrated economy and everyone would've been happy. Instead we have this current situation and we're all just fucking over it.

    You live in a giant open area. Boo fucking hoo. Plenty of other people live in far worse, far more treacherous, far more vulnerable places, and you don't see them running around fucking everyone over. In fact, many of them are getting fucked over by you. So put on your fucking big boy pants and get over it.

    Like, if it isn't that obsolete, stupid argument then we get some other bullshit about not having year-round access to blue water ports because as we all know every goddamn nation has to have that or they just, you know, collapse into chaos or something. Jesus christ. Fuck. You.

    Like so much of what is going on, it feels like the Russian regime is still stuck in obsessions that only make sense in a world that is long gone.

    Thinking about it, that may be one of the fundamental differences between Russia and China. China feels like an authoritarian state living in the present. Russia feels like one that's living in the 1900s.

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  • JuggernutJuggernut Registered User regular
    Imperialism is a hell of a drug to quit apparently.

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  • Havelock2.0Havelock2.0 Sufficiently Chill The Chill ZoneRegistered User regular
    edited April 23
    Russia is saying it destroyed a foreign weapons cache at an Odessa Terminal via missile strikes

    Any confirmations on this??
    Source is Reuters


    https://apple.news/A21-hrQljQvOeJZp7yCRXbQ

    Reuters is a news agency

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  • PhistiPhisti Registered User regular
    edited April 23
    BBC is reporting they hit an apartment block... with pictures of a wrecked apartment.

    Probably worth taking anything Russia is saying with a massive grain of salt even if they hit a facility with a missile 300km away. The people on the ground at the site wouldn't know the casualties for a day or so, let alone the people who are half the country away.

    Phisti on
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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    edited April 23
    I'm guessing they hit a hospital/school/church/orphanage that was totally hiding evil nazi western weapons underneath all the civilians nazi sympathizers, bandits and nogoodniks.

    EDIT: just an apartment building? mediocre.

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  • CrazyPCrazyP Registered User regular
    Yeah, missile strike happened, according to Odessa local government - they've seen 6 missiles: 2 were shot down, 2 hit an apartment buildings, and 2 more did indeed hit a valid military target.
    Source: https://meduza.io/video/2022/04/23/rossiya-obstrelyala-odessu-raketami-vot-kak-vyglyadyat-posledstviya

  • McRhynoMcRhyno Registered User regular
    Why the fuck are people asking Garry Kasparov anything? Your chess moves and "strategy" don't mean shit when people are shooting at you.

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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    McRhyno wrote: »
    Why the fuck are people asking Garry Kasparov anything? Your chess moves and "strategy" don't mean shit when people are shooting at you.

    Because he's been a long time face of the anti-Putin movement in Russia.

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  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    McRhyno wrote: »
    Why the fuck are people asking Garry Kasparov anything? Your chess moves and "strategy" don't mean shit when people are shooting at you.

    Because he's been a long time face of the anti-Putin movement in Russia.

    And his analysis of Putin's actions has been on point. As an example:

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  • knitdanknitdan Registered User regular
    If people still ask an old linguist with a history of genocide denialism to talk about international relations, I think it's ok to ask a chess champion what he thinks of Russia.

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  • McRhynoMcRhyno Registered User regular
    knitdan wrote: »
    If people still ask an old linguist with a history of genocide denialism to talk about international relations, I think it's ok to ask a chess champion what he thinks of Russia.

    Neither is ok!

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  • CrazyPCrazyP Registered User regular
    Kasparov was not just a chess player - he used to be leader of opposition party in Russia and major figure in politics, so he does have some things to say about Putin

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  • ChanusChanus Benny Harvey -RIP-Registered User regular
    it's interesting when we decide someone can only have a valid opinion about one thing

    Allegedly a voice of reason.
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  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    Certainly, we should not ask a TV actor/comedian about their opinions of the war in Ukraine.

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  • override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    edited April 23
    Phisti wrote: »
    BBC is reporting they hit an apartment block... with pictures of a wrecked apartment.

    Probably worth taking anything Russia is saying with a massive grain of salt even if they hit a facility with a missile 300km away. The people on the ground at the site wouldn't know the casualties for a day or so, let alone the people who are half the country away.

    At this point literally just adding a "not" to any russian claim will make you more right than wrong

    "We did NOT destroy a weapons cache"
    "We did not NOT commit war crimes" etc

    override367 on
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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    McRhyno wrote: »
    knitdan wrote: »
    If people still ask an old linguist with a history of genocide denialism to talk about international relations, I think it's ok to ask a chess champion what he thinks of Russia.

    Neither is ok!

    Kasparov is, and has been for many years, a well respected advisor on Russian actions, foreign policy and government strategy in general. He is not just, some guy who happens to be good at chess.

    Noone gives out a degree in "skilled foreign policy experting". It's a qualification you earn by doing stuff.

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  • chrisnlchrisnl Registered User regular
    I've seen quite a few interviews with Kasparov, and he is quite knowledgeable about the subject and clear in his thoughts. I take him just as seriously as I take the former TV comedian that is currently President of Ukraine. (That is, quite seriously, if there was any doubt)

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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. normal (not weird)Registered User regular
    edited April 24
    His position in opposition politics aside, Kasparov is also a well known name who is well spoken with fluent English and has the kind of respectable soft conservative politics that the media loves and he makes a point of giving interviews. It would be surprising if he wasn't all over during this.

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  • Knuckle DraggerKnuckle Dragger Explosive Ovine Disposal Registered User regular
    McRhyno wrote: »
    Why the fuck are people asking Garry Kasparov anything? Your chess moves and "strategy" don't mean shit when people are shooting at you.

    You'll look like less of a goose if you don't act affronted at someone's lack of relevancy to a matter, while simultaneously demonstrating that you have no clue what they've been up to for over fifteen years. Kasparov has been one of the leaders of the Russian opposition for a long time.

    I'd rather be led by a comedian than ruled by a joke.
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  • McRhynoMcRhyno Registered User regular
    edited April 24

    edit: being facetious about anything here probably isn't smart

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  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    edited April 24
    His position in opposition politics aside, Kasparov is also a well known name who is well spoken with fluent English and has the kind of respectable soft conservative politics that the media loves and he makes a point of giving interviews. It would be surprising if he wasn't all over during this.

    That forum has nothing to do with Western Media. The India Economic Conclave, as I literally posted above, is the largest economic forum on India, is where India's economic policy is decided, so anybody that doesn't has or had direct influence that was invited has proven to know what the hell are they talking about. Is a "who matters" on economics and politics that isn't too busy to attend.

    Kasparov matters, since he was 100% correct about Putin, despite all the mockery he got. Deal with it.

    TryCatcher on
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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. normal (not weird)Registered User regular
    edited April 24
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    His position in opposition politics aside, Kasparov is also a well known name who is well spoken with fluent English and has the kind of respectable soft conservative politics that the media loves and he makes a point of giving interviews. It would be surprising if he wasn't all over during this.

    That forum has nothing to do with Western Media. The India Economic Conclave, as I literally posted above, is the largest economic forum on India, is where India's economic policy is decided, so anybody that doesn't has or had direct influence that was invited has proven to know what the hell are they talking about. Is a "who matters" on economics and politics that isn't too busy to attend.

    Kasparov matters, since he was 100% correct about Putin, despite all the mockery he got. Deal with it.

    I'm...uh...dealing with it just fine?

    He asked why anyone is asking Kasparov anything. Its because he's politically relevant and the kind of guest media loves to talk to. So we....uh....agree?

    Styrofoam Sammich on
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  • SpectrumSpectrum Archer of Inferno Chaldea Rec RoomRegistered User regular
    https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-zelenskyy-fears-russias-invasion-was-just-the-beginning-amid-fears-conflict-could-last-for-long-period-12596545
    Russia has shifted a dozen crack units from the shattered port of Mariupol, redeploying them on the eastern battlefront, as Ukraine said it managed to bring supplies to the city's besieged Azovstal steel works.

    It comes as a Ukraine presidential adviser said Russian forces were trying to conduct operations to storm the area, which is the last stronghold of Ukrainian troops in the ruined southern city.

    The adviser said Russia has resumed airstrikes on the site.

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  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    His position in opposition politics aside, Kasparov is also a well known name who is well spoken with fluent English and has the kind of respectable soft conservative politics that the media loves and he makes a point of giving interviews. It would be surprising if he wasn't all over during this.

    That forum has nothing to do with Western Media. The India Economic Conclave, as I literally posted above, is the largest economic forum on India, is where India's economic policy is decided, so anybody that doesn't has or had direct influence that was invited has proven to know what the hell are they talking about. Is a "who matters" on economics and politics that isn't too busy to attend.

    Kasparov matters, since he was 100% correct about Putin, despite all the mockery he got. Deal with it.

    I'm...uh...dealing with it just fine?

    He asked why anyone is asking Kasparov anything. Its because he's politically relevant and the kind of guest media loves to talk to. So we....uh....agree?

    My point is that we are not talking about something that the media decides, we are talking about Indian Davos. So "the media likes him" is not the point.

    valhalla130
  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User regular
    edited April 24
    Calling anything cycled out of Mariupol "crack units" seems pretty extravagant, even by British tabloid standards.

    Rotating BTGs, which almost by definition are anything but crack anything, that have spent most of two months trying to take a major city - and most of the last week basically wading into woodchippers in an attempt to finish the job - out of the city and straight into some other part of the front? Yeah, they'll be in useful condition by the time they get there.

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  • -Loki--Loki- Don't pee in my mouth and tell me it's raining. Registered User regular
    Spectrum wrote: »
    https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-zelenskyy-fears-russias-invasion-was-just-the-beginning-amid-fears-conflict-could-last-for-long-period-12596545
    Russia has shifted a dozen crack units from the shattered port of Mariupol, redeploying them on the eastern battlefront, as Ukraine said it managed to bring supplies to the city's besieged Azovstal steel works.

    It comes as a Ukraine presidential adviser said Russian forces were trying to conduct operations to storm the area, which is the last stronghold of Ukrainian troops in the ruined southern city.

    The adviser said Russia has resumed airstrikes on the site.

    I can’t see any units from Mariupol being in a condition to fight.

    Maybe it’s an autocorrect mistake and it’s ‘a dozen cracked units’.

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  • manwiththemachinegunmanwiththemachinegun METAL GEAR?! Registered User regular
    Spectrum wrote: »
    https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-zelenskyy-fears-russias-invasion-was-just-the-beginning-amid-fears-conflict-could-last-for-long-period-12596545
    Russia has shifted a dozen crack units from the shattered port of Mariupol, redeploying them on the eastern battlefront, as Ukraine said it managed to bring supplies to the city's besieged Azovstal steel works.

    It comes as a Ukraine presidential adviser said Russian forces were trying to conduct operations to storm the area, which is the last stronghold of Ukrainian troops in the ruined southern city.

    The adviser said Russia has resumed airstrikes on the site.

    That is pure sensationalism. All of those BTGs are badly mauled.

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  • override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    edited April 24
    I thought they were in Ukraine to denazify

    but they're going to leave azov to go fight other units

    hrmm i wonder if Russia has been dishonest

    override367 on
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  • ScooterScooter Registered User regular
    Honestly I wonder if Russia even still has any 'crack' units. Their paratroopers seem to have gotten the worst of it in the fighting at Kyiv, and I don't think I've seen them reappear yet.

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