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The Russian-Ukrainian [War]

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Posts

  • Mr RayMr Ray Sarcasm sphereRegistered User regular
    edited April 24
    Sky News is gutter trash. The headline is designed to make you go "Oh no! Really?!" and have to immediately click the article to see more. That's all this is. Those of us who are paying attention are well aware that these probably are not "crack" units. At best they might be "less garbage".

    Mr Ray on
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  • ceresceres When the last moon is cast over the last star of morning And the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderator mod
    They think Ukrainians are nazis, I seriously doubt anyone there cares about Azov. I'm relatively certain they were just the easiest thing to hang Russian propaganda on for a Western audience anyway.

    And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
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  • BrodyBrody The Watch The First ShoreRegistered User regular
    I'm pretty sure the Nazi rhetoric is more about Nazi efforts to get Ukraine to try to revolt/cecede, and so anyone who is pro independent Ukraine is what they would consider a Nazi.

    "I will write your name in the ruin of them. I will paint you across history in the color of their blood."

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  • SpectrumSpectrum Archer of Inferno Chaldea Rec RoomRegistered User regular
    Mr Ray wrote: »
    Sky News is gutter trash. The headline is designed to make you go "Oh no! Really?!" and have to immediately click the article to see more. That's all this is. Those of us who are paying attention are well aware that these probably are not "crack" units. At best they might be "less garbage".
    I agree, it's pretty poor quality reporting. But I think that's an interesting barometer to use from another perspective, to keep a pulse on where the rags are trying to drive public opinion.

    As to whether Russia has crack units left, supposedly they do have some SOF conducting night attacks from a few days ago but that is going to be pretty sparse on the ground at this point, and not anywhere near Mariupol.

    XNnw6Gk.jpg
  • GaddezGaddez Registered User regular
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »
    Calling anything cycled out of Mariupol "crack units" seems pretty extravagant, even by British tabloid standards.

    Rotating BTGs, which almost by definition are anything but crack anything, that have spent most of two months trying to take a major city - and most of the last week basically wading into woodchippers in an attempt to finish the job - out of the city and straight into some other part of the front? Yeah, they'll be in useful condition by the time they get there.

    At this point I'd be skeptical of anything short of spetnaz and even then I'm not sure those guys would be able to stand up to veteran regular infantry let alone other special force.

    Netscape
  • -Loki--Loki- Don't pee in my mouth and tell me it's raining. Registered User regular
    ceres wrote: »
    They think Ukrainians are nazis, I seriously doubt anyone there cares about Azov. I'm relatively certain they were just the easiest thing to hang Russian propaganda on for a Western audience anyway.

    I think the Azov connection just came about because of the denazification claim.

    'Well obviously that means Azov Battalion'.

    When no, it just meant all Ukrainians, because the Russian government defines 'Nazi' different to the rest of the planet.

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  • Inquisitor77Inquisitor77 2 x Penny Arcade Fight Club Champion A fixed point in space and timeRegistered User regular
    Supposedly the mansion of the Governor of Moscow Oblast, Andrey Vorobyov, caught on fire earlier:
    Tweet shows video of the entrance of a mansion with smoke coming out of the back.

    Yeah, I think every single fire of note is now going to be treated as potential arson...

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  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    Supposedly the mansion of the Governor of Moscow Oblast, Andrey Vorobyov, caught on fire earlier:
    Tweet shows video of the entrance of a mansion with smoke coming out of the back.

    Yeah, I think every single fire of note is now going to be treated as potential arson...

    And even if it's just happenstance, it should be played up as such, regardless.

    If these fuckos are jumping at shadows, they're more likely to have paranoia force them into making mistakes.

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  • Knuckle DraggerKnuckle Dragger Explosive Ovine Disposal Registered User regular
    -Loki- wrote: »
    ceres wrote: »
    They think Ukrainians are nazis, I seriously doubt anyone there cares about Azov. I'm relatively certain they were just the easiest thing to hang Russian propaganda on for a Western audience anyway.

    I think the Azov connection just came about because of the denazification claim.

    'Well obviously that means Azov Battalion'.

    When no, it just meant all Ukrainians, because the Russian government defines 'Nazi' different to the rest of the planet.

    At the same time, though, I am sure Putin was hoping that the Western discussions would be steered by useful idiots pointing at Azov and shouting, “Nazis!” at the top of their lungs, both to undermine arguments for tangible support to Ukraine and to distract from the fact that the Russians are literally fascist invaders.

    I'd rather be led by a comedian than ruled by a joke.
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  • ceresceres When the last moon is cast over the last star of morning And the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderator mod
    edited April 24
    Flight registered to "Rossiya - Special Flight Squadron" took off in Sochi and looks like it's landing in Belgrade. It's an Ilyushin Il-96 300. Wonder why they're in Serbian airspace.

    edit: There are also an absurd number of stratotankers about.

    ceres on
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    Ringo
  • AbsalonAbsalon Registered User regular
    edited April 24
    Russia is making some small grabs near Izyum by the Oskil river, but no real offensive. The Russians are simply taking too long with it - Ukraine is now going up north of Kharkiv to relieve that city of pressure and have been moving towards Russia's Valuyki-Kupaiansk supply lines, making sure Russia can't just wait and gather strength or deploy forces wherever they want.
    When Russia can actually fix Ukraine in force on force fights, Russia most likely wins. So Ukraine simply doesn't go for those fights.
    Ukraine has offensive options, if they mass some of its forces with counter-battery support and SAMs.

    Near Kherson, Ukraine is waiting, whittling down Russian forces at night when they can. They recently struck a command post with reportedly 50 officers in it, claiming two Russian generals killed and one properly injured in one go.
    Russia has more generals than tanks at this point, but dead officers are hard to replace because they actually have to do some training and education, not to mention it usually does a bit of a number on the soldiers' morale when the people outranking them get wiped from a distance.

    Russia is still waffling on the Azovsteel fortress in Mariupol. In their quest to actually take Donbas properly, they face three cities of 100,000 (Sloviank, Severodonetsk and Kramatorsk) and many other smaller towns. Each might be a potential new Mariupol. If they try to go Grozny on them, expect Western support for Ukraine to harden.

    Absalon on
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  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    edited April 24
    The only Russian infantry who are reputedly living somewhat up to their reputation are their naval infantry, from what I've read (albeit that's a hugely loose statement)

    Most Russian "crack" troops seem to have had their reputations thoroughly undermined, although it could be that just without decent logistics even competent units are just falling apart.

    Offensively they seem to repeatedly fail to be able to do much at all and I doubt that's any better now compared to six weeks ago.

    Solar on
  • [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular
    Solar wrote: »
    The only Russian infantry who are reputedly living somewhat up to their reputation are their naval infantry, from what I've read (albeit that's a hugely loose statement)

    Most Russian "crack" troops seem to have had their reputations thoroughly undermined, although it could be that just without decent logistics even competent units are just falling apart.

    Offensively they seem to repeatedly fail to be able to do much at all and I doubt that's any better now compared to six weeks ago.

    Maybe that reputation stems from a misunderstanding: it's actually because they are all on drugs.

    Sic transit gloria mundi.
    DocShadowen
  • NyysjanNyysjan FinlandRegistered User regular
    Now now, i am certain that the second the ability to throw axes while doing backflips is the solution, Russian military will prove their competence.
    /s

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  • TarantioTarantio Registered User regular
    I've seen it said that the "elite" Russian paratroopers are chosen for being tall and muscular, which isn't actually that useful in special forces, but is desirable if the goal is to scare oppressed regions into submission.

    According to this idea, they're basically police enforcers.

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  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    The "paratroopers are about dissent suppression" explains both why they were sent in first and why they got shredded when experiencing actual military resistance.

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  • GaddezGaddez Registered User regular
    -Loki- wrote: »
    ceres wrote: »
    They think Ukrainians are nazis, I seriously doubt anyone there cares about Azov. I'm relatively certain they were just the easiest thing to hang Russian propaganda on for a Western audience anyway.

    I think the Azov connection just came about because of the denazification claim.

    'Well obviously that means Azov Battalion'.

    When no, it just meant all Ukrainians, because the Russian government defines 'Nazi' different to the rest of the planet.

    At the same time, though, I am sure Putin was hoping that the Western discussions would be steered by useful idiots pointing at Azov and shouting, “Nazis!” at the top of their lungs, both to undermine arguments for tangible support to Ukraine and to distract from the fact that the Russians are literally fascist invaders.

    Doesn't help when the implications were that everyone west of Donetsk was a nazi and that the leader of your pet mercenary team looked like a wolfenstein mini boss.

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  • Kipling217Kipling217 Registered User regular
    The VDV got massacred around Kyiv because they entered contested airspace and had to fight without support. Doesn't matter how great you are if your Helo/Aircraft get blown out of the sky by a SAM before you can disembark. Nor how good you are at fighting when the enemy has tanks and artillery on their side and you got small arms.

    The VDV where supposed to capture Hostomel Airport and wait for followup forces to reach them. The Followup force got delayed and/or shot down and they had to fight UA mechanized units with heavy artillery support. Airports being mostly open fields with light structures aka tank country extraordinaire. Naturally they got their ass kicked. They might have been Crack Infantry, but the survivors sure aren't anymore.

    The Marine Infantry had the advantage of sailing around Odessa for the first few weeks of the war and only being deployed after the Russian had their wakeup call. They also didn't do a beach landing because that would have been Hostomel 2.0. They deployed regularly.

    So they where fresh troops with good equipment attacking known enemy positions without believing it was going to be a cakewalk. Probably had army fire support too. Maybe even some Air force strike missions before their attacks. Against Ukrainian forces that had been fighting non-stop since the war started. So of course they would do better.

    my 0,02 cents anyways.

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  • HappylilElfHappylilElf Registered User regular
    At this point I'm kinda of the opinion Russia does not have any crack infantry, or even competent infantry by modern standards, until proven otherwise.

    Because they've sorta been doing a fantastic job of failing to prove otherwise.

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  • GaddezGaddez Registered User regular
    At this point I'm kinda of the opinion Russia does not have any crack infantry, or even competent infantry by modern standards, until proven otherwise.

    Because they've sorta been doing a fantastic job of failing to prove otherwise.

    The issue is that russia hasn't really had to fight a war against a halfway credible threat in the last 80 years; pretty much everyone had a smaller force, russian hand-me-downs and limited potential support and as such a lot of nations were effectively doomed from their perspective. This has the knockdown consequence of having generals that haven't had to do any real reforms on combat doctrine in decades.

    Add into that rampant corruption that actively opposes any sort of modernization and an outright abusive military structure and you have a military that has to basically rely on it's sheer size to pose a credible threat which ukraine is emphatically showing isn't enough in the 21st century.

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  • GiantGeek2020GiantGeek2020 Registered User regular
    edited April 24
    Gaddez wrote: »
    At this point I'm kinda of the opinion Russia does not have any crack infantry, or even competent infantry by modern standards, until proven otherwise.

    Because they've sorta been doing a fantastic job of failing to prove otherwise.

    The issue is that russia hasn't really had to fight a war against a halfway credible threat in the last 80 years; pretty much everyone had a smaller force, russian hand-me-downs and limited potential support and as such a lot of nations were effectively doomed from their perspective. This has the knockdown consequence of having generals that haven't had to do any real reforms on combat doctrine in decades.

    Add into that rampant corruption that actively opposes any sort of modernization and an outright abusive military structure and you have a military that has to basically rely on it's sheer size to pose a credible threat which ukraine is emphatically showing isn't enough in the 21st century.

    Considering Afghanistan you should probably change that to the last 30 years

    GiantGeek2020 on
  • ChanusChanus Benny Harvey -RIP-Registered User regular
    i also remember 30 years ago when it was the 80s

    Allegedly a voice of reason.
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  • GaddezGaddez Registered User regular
    Gaddez wrote: »
    At this point I'm kinda of the opinion Russia does not have any crack infantry, or even competent infantry by modern standards, until proven otherwise.

    Because they've sorta been doing a fantastic job of failing to prove otherwise.

    The issue is that russia hasn't really had to fight a war against a halfway credible threat in the last 80 years; pretty much everyone had a smaller force, russian hand-me-downs and limited potential support and as such a lot of nations were effectively doomed from their perspective. This has the knockdown consequence of having generals that haven't had to do any real reforms on combat doctrine in decades.

    Add into that rampant corruption that actively opposes any sort of modernization and an outright abusive military structure and you have a military that has to basically rely on it's sheer size to pose a credible threat which ukraine is emphatically showing isn't enough in the 21st century.

    Considering Afghanistan should probably change that to the last 30 years

    Afghanistan is kind of a weird off case since they've completely internalized the Roman Maxim of "you are only defeated when you admit it" as a seeming national creed.

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  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    Chanus wrote: »
    i also remember 30 years ago when it was the 80s

    Chanus

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  • manwiththemachinegunmanwiththemachinegun METAL GEAR?! Registered User regular
    Chanus wrote: »
    i also remember 30 years ago when it was the 80s

    Young people don't exist.

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  • redxredx I(x)=2(x)+1 whole numbersRegistered User regular
    Chanus wrote: »
    i also remember 30 years ago when it was the 80s

    maths.

    This machine kills threads.
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  • Mortal SkyMortal Sky queer punk hedge witchRegistered User regular
    I turn 30 next year, and I only just barely remember the late '90s or even the 21-month span of the early '00s before 9/11

    so even a pre-Putin world feels surprisingly distant to me, let alone that of the Cold War

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  • AbsalonAbsalon Registered User regular
    edited April 24
    Edit: Oops.

    Absalon on
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  • Kipling217Kipling217 Registered User regular
    Mortal Sky wrote: »
    I turn 30 next year, and I only just barely remember the late '90s or even the 21-month span of the early '00s before 9/11

    so even a pre-Putin world feels surprisingly distant to me, let alone that of the Cold War

    If it helps I barely remember most of the 80s and I was five when they started.

    In fact one of my first memories that I can date to the 80s was that being the leader of the Soviet Union had to be awful because they kept dying all the time.

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  • GiantGeek2020GiantGeek2020 Registered User regular
    Absalon wrote: »
    Sondages de sorties has Macron at 55-58 but we have to wait for a few more hours.

    I don't want to awesome that because Macron is a tremendous prick but he's better than LePen

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  • McRhynoMcRhyno Registered User regular
    Kipling217 wrote: »
    Mortal Sky wrote: »
    I turn 30 next year, and I only just barely remember the late '90s or even the 21-month span of the early '00s before 9/11

    so even a pre-Putin world feels surprisingly distant to me, let alone that of the Cold War

    If it helps I barely remember most of the 80s and I was five when they started.

    In fact one of my first memories that I can date to the 80s was that being the leader of the Soviet Union had to be awful because they kept dying all the time.

    I remember the opening of The Naked Gun where Fauxrbachev goes, "I have the west convinced I am a nice guy"

    PSN: ImRyanBurgundy
    GiantGeek2020
  • [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular
    Absalon wrote: »
    Sondages de sorties has Macron at 55-58 but we have to wait for a few more hours.

    I don't want to awesome that because Macron is a tremendous prick but he's better than LePen

    The term "damned by faint praise" comes to mind.

    Sic transit gloria mundi.
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  • GiantGeek2020GiantGeek2020 Registered User regular
    Absalon wrote: »
    Sondages de sorties has Macron at 55-58 but we have to wait for a few more hours.

    I don't want to awesome that because Macron is a tremendous prick but he's better than LePen

    The term "damned by faint praise" comes to mind.

    And despite Absalon wanting to post that in the EU democracies thread it's still at least a bit relevant here because while Macron might continually be trying to negotiate peace like Charlie Brown getting the football pulled away from him LePen is a complete Russian stooge and would be very bad for Ukraine

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  • Gabriel_PittGabriel_Pitt (effective against Russian warships) Registered User regular
    People younger than me? That's unpossible!

    Regarding the effectiveness of the Russian military, I forget if it was here or elsewhere on the webs that some research papers got linked describing how what Russia had been directing it's military to was fighting a -defensive war-. So corruption aside, logistics were planned around moving things inside Russia - their comm gear depending on their being operational civilian signal networks isn't as pants on head stupid if it was intended to always be used inside Russia, on existing Russian networks. Combine that with how the war with Ukaraine was started as an offensive war, with no heads up to the military that it was going to happen or preparations made (and probably it would've needed years of advance planning and build up to make sure it went right) and you get a lot of blunders happening right now, further exacerbated by endemic corruption and incompetence.

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  • AbsalonAbsalon Registered User regular
    edited April 24
    Some movement, what I can see on Twitter. RU forces tried to advance on Vremivka along the southern front line, they suffered losses and retreated. RU forces tried to advance on Mar'inka and Novomykhailivka with the help of Artillery and "Didn't have any luck." according to the Ukrainian army. But Russia did move into Zarichne, on the Seredovenestk front. Meanwhile, Ukraine liberated Bezruky, Slatyne and Prudyanka north of Kharkiv yesterday.

    I think what matters is whether Ukraine can keep its attrition lower than Russia's, successfully retreating where they have to and defending where they have to.

    Absalon on
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  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    At worst it looks like Russia is pushing the front back here and there, but there are no breakthroughs. Obviously can't assume it's completely safe but I'm still fairly confident Ukraine can handle this.

  • JusticeforPlutoJusticeforPluto Registered User regular
    I haven't seen this posted, but Russia might be sending a 110 year old ship to salvage Moskva:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/04/22/the-russians-appear-to-be-sending-a-deep-diving-submersible-to-the-wreck-of-the-cruiser-moskva/?sh=25fc6eab126d

    Not that this isn't some desperation play, its just a 110 year old ship that does its job well (well, from what I hear. Given the state of the Russian Armed Forces, I wouldn't be surprised if she was in a poor state as well). Originally made for the Imperial Russian Navy. She's seen a Communist Revolution, 2 World Wars, and the collapse of communism.

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  • AbsalonAbsalon Registered User regular
    edited April 24
    At worst it looks like Russia is pushing the front back here and there, but there are no breakthroughs. Obviously can't assume it's completely safe but I'm still fairly confident Ukraine can handle this.
    Russia's manpower advantage around Izyum is pretty sizeable, so if they hit hard and competently enough (doubtful, natch), they could threaten a large swathe of the JFO. But, once they cracked through the breakpoint, they’ll try to exploit it, which needs thousands of guys to defend their ground lines of communication while the pincers try to connect with other chunks of the Russian frontline.

    Absalon on
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  • M-VickersM-Vickers Registered User regular
    I haven't seen this posted, but Russia might be sending a 110 year old ship to salvage Moskva:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/04/22/the-russians-appear-to-be-sending-a-deep-diving-submersible-to-the-wreck-of-the-cruiser-moskva/?sh=25fc6eab126d

    Not that this isn't some desperation play, its just a 110 year old ship that does its job well (well, from what I hear. Given the state of the Russian Armed Forces, I wouldn't be surprised if she was in a poor state as well). Originally made for the Imperial Russian Navy. She's seen a Communist Revolution, 2 World Wars, and the collapse of communism.

    I hope the Russians have asked Ukraines permission - the shipwreck is a Ukrainian heritage site !

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  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    M-Vickers wrote: »
    I haven't seen this posted, but Russia might be sending a 110 year old ship to salvage Moskva:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/04/22/the-russians-appear-to-be-sending-a-deep-diving-submersible-to-the-wreck-of-the-cruiser-moskva/?sh=25fc6eab126d

    Not that this isn't some desperation play, its just a 110 year old ship that does its job well (well, from what I hear. Given the state of the Russian Armed Forces, I wouldn't be surprised if she was in a poor state as well). Originally made for the Imperial Russian Navy. She's seen a Communist Revolution, 2 World Wars, and the collapse of communism.

    I hope the Russians have asked Ukraines permission - the shipwreck is a Ukrainian heritage site !

    Oh I'm sure Russia will be sensitive to Ukrainian cultural issues.

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    Doctor DetroitElvenshaeMan in the Mistsvalhalla130Martini_Philosopher
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