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The Russian-Ukrainian War Is Ongoing
Bogart
Streetwise HerculesRegistered User, Moderator Mod Emeritus
Streetwise HerculesRegistered User, Moderator Mod Emeritus
As ever, fuck Putin.
Echo on
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technically this isn't a war, is it? Or rather Russia is hiding behind the whole "special military operation" thing.
So if it isn't a war by UN/whatever definition, then killing retreating not-technically-soldiers would be the war crime?
Please don't misunderstand my position on all of this, imo this is a war and the Russians need to be mulched for it, but higher, abstract international politics doesn't always align with my understanding of things.
I don't think that Russia's agreement on the nature of the conflict is going to be required.
However if they don't want Geneva protections to apply to their citizens' actions in a different sovereign nation they they can just be tried for mass murder, rape, robbery, destruction of property, trespass and eating dogs under Ukraine's normal civil code.
*Apparently* NATO handlers passed to Ukraine Security Service a mission to recruit Russian, military pilots, by offering them 1 million $ plus EU citizenship for pilot and his family for stealing the plane and landing at Ukrainian airport. The plan was carried out by Russian journalist from Bellingcat, who had to flee Russia month ago to avoid prison, who is working for British(!) intelligence and recruited 2 women he met once at railway station in Russia. Said women met courier with 4k $ en route from Moscow and passed it to defecting pilot. Also SBU mailed package with Clonidine to Volgograd and left it hidden in the forest, this was meant to be used to knock out pilots navigator.
Thankfully FSB caught wind of this and not only prevented, but also managed to get valuable data on proposed safe route for pilot through blindspots in Ukrainian Anti-Air Defence... Well, at least FSB did not find any Sims 3 copies this time - way to go, I see you improve
Full story on propaganda channel for Russian military
https://tvzvezda.ru/news/202272599-35u7E.html
Lavrov says that security to the Ukrainian ships with grain will be provided by Russian, Turkish ships and 1 more yet unannounced country. Is this agreement still in place?
https://www.interfax.ru/world/853628
And as final treat: everybody pull out your Nazi bingo cards! Today Russian goverment had taken offending book from libraries for destruction. Book is from 2017 and is a novel about life of family of Russian Germans repressed during WW2 days. Reasons provided: falsification of history, providing comparisons between Hitler and Stalin and romanticizing emigration, which goes against Russian goals of protecting people and their values.
Source: Author vkontakte page
https://vk.com/id104894448?w=wall104894448_850
Well, we had reached book burning stage
Technically no, its not a war crime. As historically invading without a formal declaration of war is itself a war crime and nations engaging in such lose the protection of the Geneva conventions. However you are expected to give soldiers the benefit of the Geneva conventions even if there isn't a formal state of hostilities as "incidents" and border clashes can still occur. If you are a functional army, you are supposed to treat any armed personnel captures as POW, even if they strictly speaking don't fit the criteria of Soldiers. The Logic being; you captured them, you have to keep them. Most nations abide by the Geneva Conventions all the time out of practicality, since the benefits mostly outweigh the drawback. Shooting prisoners and wounded soldiers just makes their friends fight all the harder.
This is why Guantanamo Bay was such an eyesore and why "illegal combatants" was a cop-out. The Guantanamo Bay prisoners where under military control, but they where not accorded the treatment of enemy soldiers. Legally speaking anybody stationed there can be charged with war crimes for their actions. As the recent trial of a 100 year old camp guard in Germany shows, that is taint that does not wash out.
As for not declaring war, that is bit more complicated, as its actual hard to declare it. Domestically, in Russia, only the Duma can do so. Putin would have to go to the Duma and ask them to do so. Something the great and powerful leader is loath to do. Internationally, you need an actual cause for war aka a Casus Belli. As in, you need to prove to the UN that Ukraine is doing something so heinous that war is the only option. Like Ukraine deliberately bombing Russian cities and refusing to stop level. Or Ukrainian soldiers shooting unprovoked across the border at Russian Soldiers.
Note, internal affairs of Ukraine is not sufficient reasons. Ukraine having a Jewish nazi president is not a valid cause. Neither was the Azov Battalion. That is an internal issue that Ukraine has to solve and the best you can do is ask the UN to assist with humanitarian intervention in case of genocide. Ukraine attacking the Donetsk republics is likewise not a casus belli since even if Russia recognizes the DPR, that is a war between Ukraine and the DPR. Meaning Russia isn't a valid party to "their conflict".
If they do not, whelp, not much we can do. The idea is that civilised nations adhere to those rules because then their soldiers can expect the enemy to do so as well. Every nation-state is much happier if they can wage war without having to worry about mass desertions and uprisings and mutinies.
In extremis, as in situations where a nation without almost any friends at all has transgressed, the UN Security Council might start an international war crimes tribunal. But as asserted before, Russia has too many friends for this to work in this case, aside from being on the Security Council themselves.
But counting the war crimes is useful to help push back against Russian propaganda in NATO nations.
It's at least as likely that this is a fictitious event intended to send a message to said pilots "don't try it".
Explicitly saying that regime change is a goal, which is good since that might slow up pressure on Ukraine to capitulate in any way.
Second statement is some quality projection.
Third line hits that 'Ukraine is a fake country' thing.
So, this is gonna sound really stupid but is it possible that Lavrov doesn't know that Odessa was fired on like... 2 days ago?
0%
Lavrov is just as much a bullshitter as Putin himself
No, that was a false flag breakdown in communications strike on a valid military target that never happened anyway.
Source: Reuters taking statements from Ukraines minister of defence.
50 ammunition depots is a lot of ammunition, although most are probably not as large as the ones we've seen explode in videos.
-Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
Probably worse. Putin probably believes at least some of the crazy shit he says. Lavrov will say literally anything Putin wants with no regard to whether or not he believes it himself. I literally cannot think of a less trustworthy person in politics.
Because when I think 'conforms to the norms of international law and relations' I think Syria and Iran.
Like I've said it before and I'll say it again: Ukraaine is fighting for it's right to exist as a soverign state against a nation that has casually engaged in war crimes. As far as I'm concerned they're welcome to do whatever the fuck they want; hit their camps in the middle of the night with napalm, mount the heads of dead russian soldiers on sign posts, engage in attacks against targets in russia... they can do whatever the fuck they want against the russian military that isn't expressly outlawed by the Geneva convention and maintain a perfect record.
So yeah: if those troops that are surrounded don't want to surrender feed them 82mm mortars until they can be best described as "slurry".
Add to that the extra headaches the Russians are probably dealing with by having to disperse ammunition depots to avoid single large kabooms, leading to more logistical headaches keeping those topped off and going from there to the front...
Thanks to things like wildfire-tracking satellites the effects of that can actually be seen from space - since the HIMARS deployments started satellites have seen a sharp drop in the number of fires on the Ukrainian side of the front lines. It hasn't neutralized Russian artillery, but seems to have knocked it down towards something resembling parity for the first time in months.
everything else there seems to be on the table.
Calling it 'Parity' might be a little misleading. Previously the Russians were gaining because they were firing literal trainloads of 152mm a day (Even at the lower end of the estimates, it was 10k+, and those crated shells are both bulky and weighty, but they weren't actually hitting anything with very many of those shots. And we have increasing anecdotal evidence that they've worn out a lot of their 'good' barrels, and they're now using either worn barrels or in many cases, shall we say, less than totally satisfactory replacements. In fact it's more than likely that many replacement barrels have been made useless when the depots have been hit.
Accuracy is not likely to improve under those conditions.
So if Russia and Ukraine are now at approximate parity in the volume of fire, but Ukraine has a significant advantage in the accuracy of their shooting - and I'm quite prepared to believe that the fancy schmacy new guns they've received from France and Norway and Germany and so on are indeed a lot more accurate than old school soviet era 155s, then...
EDIT: I should clarify that by no means all of Ukraine's arty is the fancy new NATO stuff. But an increasing amount is, and as they run out of 152mm shells and the barrels for the old sovbloc stuff, that ratio will increase.
EDIT 2: On a very tangential note, Perun's channel has gone from an almost completely unknown game comment channel by some australian dude to almost 200k subscribers who love his non hysterical balanced look at what we can actually evidence in the war in Ukraine. Tell a friend about his channel and get him to 200k! We want as many people as possible aware of high quality information & analysis like this. It's the best weapon against Russian propaganda.
Leave it to the Kremlin to find a fantastic way to antagonize Riyadh, and make other Middle Eastern business partners jittery about returning to Russia postwar. Knowing that no matter where they stand with Putin’s gestapo, Damascus or Tehran can make the phone ring in Moscow and have them arrested and hauled before a tribunal.
Yeah, I was thinking parity in terms of amount of kaboom, not necessarily effectiveness.
I think the last numbers I saw a couple of days ago had the Russians out-shooting the Ukrainians by about 2:1 now, but that's down from something like 10:1 or 20:1, and there's no chance the Russians are out-hitting the Ukrainians with what they have left. Inaccurately deleting grid squares like the Russians were doing until a couple weeks ago isn't terribly cost-effective, but it eventually gets things done. Blow up that particular part of the toolbox and force them to compete with the Ukrainians solely in terms of effective fire, and yeah, I suspect I know which side's having a better time right now.
Yeah despoiling the dead is very explicitly against Conventions. States are required to bury or inter corpses in marked locations, individually if circumstances allow for it, collectively if not.
Well, let the man speak for himself. Journalists pressured Lavrov on this point and his answer is: Seriously, why even bother with making deal...
https://www.interfax.ru/world/853751
A teacher arrested for "defamation of military" for posting sad emoji under news about arrest of local politician for "defamation of the military" and for liking post with that old speech to the people of Russia by Schwarzenegger about invasion of Ukraine. This is it - you literally can't make parody of Putin regime, everything is too stupid to be real
Source: local Siberian news site
https://www.sibreal.org/a/pervyy-prigovor-za-layki-pod-antivoennymi-postami/31955875.html
I mean, they've deboned the state so thoroughly that theres no possible consequence to doing so so why not?
This is gross.
Don't be gross.
The parallels between Lavrov and Mitch are strong.