Yesterday got a feeling that is is time to GTFO even if it means jumping head first into the void. And today I woke up with both of my back up vpn blocked... so only tor remains - fun times. Anyway, I bought plane tickets, here is hope that border guard will let me out, not that there is much money left anyway...
Godspeed and let us know if you need money. I know that many of us will help in any possible way we can.
PSN ID - Buckeye_Bert
Magic Online - Bertro
+57
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daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
The Kremlin says Putin will sign decrees tomorrow at 3pm local time to “annex” the four regions of partially-occupied southeastern Ukraine where sham “referendums” were held at gun point. Putin will also deliver a speech. via state propaganda agency RIA.
There was supposedly going to be a Duma thing on the 3rd but I guess Putin's just making decrees now like a proper tsar.
Speeds things up and lets him give a big blustering speech right afterwards. Russia is continuing to get wrecked around Lyman, so they might want to make it 'official' before they lose more of the territory that they're trying to claim. Big question is still what Russia does when Ukraine doesn't stop.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
The Kremlin says Putin will sign decrees tomorrow at 3pm local time to “annex” the four regions of partially-occupied southeastern Ukraine where sham “referendums” were held at gun point. Putin will also deliver a speech. via state propaganda agency RIA.
There was supposedly going to be a Duma thing on the 3rd but I guess Putin's just making decrees now like a proper tsar.
Speeds things up and lets him give a big blustering speech right afterwards. Russia is continuing to get wrecked around Lyman, so they might want to make it 'official' before they lose more of the territory that they're trying to claim. Big question is still what Russia does when Ukraine doesn't stop.
Again, we know what happened when Crimea got attacked: Nothing.
+6
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RingoHe/Hima distinct lack of substanceRegistered Userregular
I'm honestly not sure how things could get any worse with a revolt.
Russian intelligence services torturing and then murdering their entire families of anybody that gets caught.
Instead they're just doing that to people in Ukraine. It sucks that the Ukranian people have to suffer for the inaction of the Russian people.
A Russian revolt would be in the same scenario as Ukraine was facing without any NATO support, with even less training and material. The USA will not be sending HIMARS to Russian rebels, nor likely providing real time reconnaissance intel to them either.
I would absolutely love to see the Russian mobilization turn around and depose Putin, but it's likely certain death for an uncertain future. At least they have a chance to surrender if they are on the battlefield in Ukraine. No one inside Russia even has that chance.
I'm honestly not sure how things could get any worse with a revolt.
Russian intelligence services torturing and then murdering their entire families of anybody that gets caught.
Instead they're just doing that to people in Ukraine. It sucks that the Ukranian people have to suffer for the inaction of the Russian people.
A Russian revolt would be in the same scenario as Ukraine was facing without any NATO support, with even less training and material. The USA will not be sending HIMARS to Russian rebels, nor likely providing real time reconnaissance intel to them either.
I would absolutely love to see the Russian mobilization turn around and depose Putin, but it's likely certain death for an uncertain future. At least they have a chance to surrender if they are on the battlefield in Ukraine. No one inside Russia even has that chance.
It's a bad situation!
If a Russian civil war erupts, good chance a UN coalition is assembled purely to secure the nukes.
+15
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RingoHe/Hima distinct lack of substanceRegistered Userregular
I'm honestly not sure how things could get any worse with a revolt.
Russian intelligence services torturing and then murdering their entire families of anybody that gets caught.
Instead they're just doing that to people in Ukraine. It sucks that the Ukranian people have to suffer for the inaction of the Russian people.
A Russian revolt would be in the same scenario as Ukraine was facing without any NATO support, with even less training and material. The USA will not be sending HIMARS to Russian rebels, nor likely providing real time reconnaissance intel to them either.
I would absolutely love to see the Russian mobilization turn around and depose Putin, but it's likely certain death for an uncertain future. At least they have a chance to surrender if they are on the battlefield in Ukraine. No one inside Russia even has that chance.
It's a bad situation!
If a Russian civil war erupts, good chance a UN coalition is assembled purely to secure the nukes.
That only happens when Putin is dead. If Putin is alive and he loses the nukes he will either shortly be dead or eventually facing the Hague. There cannot be any outside (Western) influence inside Russia as long as Putin is capable of ordering a nuclear launch
I'm honestly not sure how things could get any worse with a revolt.
Russian intelligence services torturing and then murdering their entire families of anybody that gets caught.
Instead they're just doing that to people in Ukraine. It sucks that the Ukranian people have to suffer for the inaction of the Russian people.
It is and I hate this. But the big problem - we simply can't organize into some sort of rebel army or even just angry mob. The size of Russia, I say, plays cruel joke with us - all sparks of protest are just too far from each other and can't combine and strengthen each other up. As things stand - each one is put down or at least pacified like with Chechnya and Dagestan and never goes beyond local level
The Kremlin says Putin will sign decrees tomorrow at 3pm local time to “annex” the four regions of partially-occupied southeastern Ukraine where sham “referendums” were held at gun point. Putin will also deliver a speech. via state propaganda agency RIA.
There was supposedly going to be a Duma thing on the 3rd but I guess Putin's just making decrees now like a proper tsar.
Speeds things up and lets him give a big blustering speech right afterwards. Russia is continuing to get wrecked around Lyman, so they might want to make it 'official' before they lose more of the territory that they're trying to claim. Big question is still what Russia does when Ukraine doesn't stop.
Again, we know what happened when Crimea got attacked: Nothing.
I'm honestly not sure how things could get any worse with a revolt.
Russian intelligence services torturing and then murdering their entire families of anybody that gets caught.
Instead they're just doing that to people in Ukraine. It sucks that the Ukranian people have to suffer for the inaction of the Russian people.
A Russian revolt would be in the same scenario as Ukraine was facing without any NATO support, with even less training and material. The USA will not be sending HIMARS to Russian rebels, nor likely providing real time reconnaissance intel to them either.
I would absolutely love to see the Russian mobilization turn around and depose Putin, but it's likely certain death for an uncertain future. At least they have a chance to surrender if they are on the battlefield in Ukraine. No one inside Russia even has that chance.
It's a bad situation!
If a Russian civil war erupts, good chance a UN coalition is assembled purely to secure the nukes.
China will be all for leading that coalition and you can be sure that once the nukes are secured will never leave to ensure Russia's land and natural resources remain fully protected for all time.
Yesterday got a feeling that is is time to GTFO even if it means jumping head first into the void. And today I woke up with both of my back up vpn blocked... so only tor remains - fun times. Anyway, I bought plane tickets, here is hope that border guard will let me out, not that there is much money left anyway...
I think that the best chance that Putin gets deposed is that some Russian general finds himself posted to Moscow or St. Petersburg with an army he thinks is loyal enough to him and with Putin in the area, and tries to go for a sudden decapitation. Beyond that? It'd be pretty tough.
Civics is not a consumer product that you can ignore because you don’t like the options presented.
I'm honestly not sure how things could get any worse with a revolt.
Russian intelligence services torturing and then murdering their entire families of anybody that gets caught.
Instead they're just doing that to people in Ukraine. It sucks that the Ukranian people have to suffer for the inaction of the Russian people.
It is and I hate this. But the big problem - we simply can't organize into some sort of rebel army or even just angry mob. The size of Russia, I say, plays cruel joke with us - all sparks of protest are just too far from each other and can't combine and strengthen each other up. As things stand - each one is put down or at least pacified like with Chechnya and Dagestan and never goes beyond local level
I'm no expert, but I was thinking about this earlier and it does make it seem like a collapse into smaller nationstates would be more likely than a true revolution. Dagestan might rise up, but no one in Moscow will rise up to support them. So the absolute best Dagestan could do is revolt locally, break off and take care of themselves.
I'm having serious doubts a coup will change things. It seems like the top two replacement contenders from what I can see are Medvedev, who seems like an idiot (possibly an alcoholic one), and the Wagner guy who probably wants to start a Fourth Reich, Russia version.
I'm honestly not sure how things could get any worse with a revolt.
Russian intelligence services torturing and then murdering their entire families of anybody that gets caught.
Instead they're just doing that to people in Ukraine. It sucks that the Ukranian people have to suffer for the inaction of the Russian people.
A Russian revolt would be in the same scenario as Ukraine was facing without any NATO support, with even less training and material. The USA will not be sending HIMARS to Russian rebels, nor likely providing real time reconnaissance intel to them either.
I would absolutely love to see the Russian mobilization turn around and depose Putin, but it's likely certain death for an uncertain future. At least they have a chance to surrender if they are on the battlefield in Ukraine. No one inside Russia even has that chance.
It's a bad situation!
Yeah, it'd definitely be worse. But at the same time, the Russian government is the responsibility of the Russian people. It doesn't exist without them. And Ukraine is not going to do anything about the Russian government. At best they're going to retake their own territory from Russian occupation. Somebody's dying either way. I dunno, there's no good solution and I'm probably wrong in thinking this, but in the back of my mind I keep thinking, "You let this happen, do something, anything."
I'm honestly not sure how things could get any worse with a revolt.
Russian intelligence services torturing and then murdering their entire families of anybody that gets caught.
Instead they're just doing that to people in Ukraine. It sucks that the Ukranian people have to suffer for the inaction of the Russian people.
It is and I hate this. But the big problem - we simply can't organize into some sort of rebel army or even just angry mob. The size of Russia, I say, plays cruel joke with us - all sparks of protest are just too far from each other and can't combine and strengthen each other up. As things stand - each one is put down or at least pacified like with Chechnya and Dagestan and never goes beyond local level
Yeah, it definitely is an impossible situation. I dunno, there's just this sort of helplessness and impotence about the whole situation that's incredibly frustrating.
The Kremlin says Putin will sign decrees tomorrow at 3pm local time to “annex” the four regions of partially-occupied southeastern Ukraine where sham “referendums” were held at gun point. Putin will also deliver a speech. via state propaganda agency RIA.
There was supposedly going to be a Duma thing on the 3rd but I guess Putin's just making decrees now like a proper tsar.
Speeds things up and lets him give a big blustering speech right afterwards. Russia is continuing to get wrecked around Lyman, so they might want to make it 'official' before they lose more of the territory that they're trying to claim. Big question is still what Russia does when Ukraine doesn't stop.
I really hope Ukraine doesn't stop and they just keep pushing until the "annexed" areas are secured.
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Handsome CostanzaAsk me about 8bitdoRIP Iwata-sanRegistered Userregular
I am reading about this war since it started, I thought that I am already desensitized to reports from Ukraine, and yet, after reading that Meduza article, I am still both terrified and furious at what is happening.
What an absolutely senseless waste of lifes.
Honestly I had to stop following what the Russians were saying so much as it makes me angry to unhealthy levels. That's no good for anybody.
Yesterday got a feeling that is is time to GTFO even if it means jumping head first into the void. And today I woke up with both of my back up vpn blocked... so only tor remains - fun times. Anyway, I bought plane tickets, here is hope that border guard will let me out, not that there is much money left anyway...
You've made the right decision, get out any way you possibly can as safely as you possibly can.
And there it is. Russian annexation of Luhansk, Donezk, Cherson, and Saporischschja is scheduled for Friday afternoon according to Kremlin spokesperson Peskow.
Fuck, expected but still. Now we have some nerve-wracking days ahead of us when Russia figures out what to do when the Ukranians don't stop taking back their rightful territories. I'm really hoping someone with a cool head is in charge of the big red button in the Kremlin. I really, really, don't want to live in a world where annexations backed up with nukes becomes a playbook strategy.
I hate interesting times
I think the pipeline and this are related. Russia is going to claim that Ukraine is assaulting Russia, blame the pipeline in them (saying it got help from the West), so more heinous shit and escalate.
Is there really much room to escalate? They're already doing war crimes like crazy, they've already started mobilization. Like, short of nuclear weapons or chemical weapons, it feels like they're doing everything they have available other than like, complete mobilization of millions of people beyond what they're currently planning on mobilizing.
I think the sabotage of NS1 and NS2 shows that there is still plenty of room for Russia to escalate. Don't limit your thinking to military escalation. Russia is a terrorist state, previously they haven't hesitated to assassinate people or blow up weapons stores on foreign soil (even in NATO countries).
There are 9000km of Norwegian gas and oil pipes under the North sea. There are dozens of LNG terminals all around the European coastline. They have shown they have the capability, I don't think they would hesitate to launch a full series of terrorist attacks on European energy infrastructure if Putin thinks it is necessary to escalate. They can target politicians, industry and the general public of the EU and UK with bombs and chemical agents. The Russian playbook is full of dirty tricks, and they have done it all before.
I was listening to an interview with a major Ukrainian journalist on Pod Save The World yesterday and one thing he was talking about was the danger of the upcoming winter for Ukraine. Because he seemed to be saying the expectation was Russia would begin attacking civilian infrastructure. You can imagine the damage you could cause blowing up gas lines or power plants in the middle of a cold winter.
And then there's Russia's love for assassinating people on foreign soil too.
There's a ton of ways Russia can just make other people suffer because they are childishly raging about losing this war.
Expectation? They've already been attacking civilian infrastructure throughout the war. They were blowing up pipelines in Ukraine back in February.
They really have been far less aggressive on this front then they could be and the Ukrainians are expecting them to step it up come winter. Especially now that Russia is getting more and more petulant.
In the mid future, there's going to be 100,000? odd conscripted Russian POWs who will be reintroduced into the homeland, after presumably being treated better by the Ukranians than the leaders of their own country.
Hopefully Ukraine will just keep going, take those areas and declare them un-annexed.
The kicker would be if they held their own referendum on the subject, and got shit from Russia about the result only being 84%.
I'm honestly not sure how things could get any worse with a revolt.
Russian intelligence services torturing and then murdering their entire families of anybody that gets caught.
Instead they're just doing that to people in Ukraine. It sucks that the Ukranian people have to suffer for the inaction of the Russian people.
A Russian revolt would be in the same scenario as Ukraine was facing without any NATO support, with even less training and material. The USA will not be sending HIMARS to Russian rebels, nor likely providing real time reconnaissance intel to them either.
I would absolutely love to see the Russian mobilization turn around and depose Putin, but it's likely certain death for an uncertain future. At least they have a chance to surrender if they are on the battlefield in Ukraine. No one inside Russia even has that chance.
It's a bad situation!
If a Russian civil war erupts, good chance a UN coalition is assembled purely to secure the nukes.
That's a real dicey proposition and depends a lot on how the current Russian regime falls apart.
Ideally there's some opening to jump in there and disarm the nuclear arsenal but it may well be the best we can hope for is another more stable strongman takes over. What to do when a nuclear power collapses is a problem we managed to put on hold for 30 years or so but now it seems like that might be all it was.
+5
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Handsome CostanzaAsk me about 8bitdoRIP Iwata-sanRegistered Userregular
And there it is. Russian annexation of Luhansk, Donezk, Cherson, and Saporischschja is scheduled for Friday afternoon according to Kremlin spokesperson Peskow.
Fuck, expected but still. Now we have some nerve-wracking days ahead of us when Russia figures out what to do when the Ukranians don't stop taking back their rightful territories. I'm really hoping someone with a cool head is in charge of the big red button in the Kremlin. I really, really, don't want to live in a world where annexations backed up with nukes becomes a playbook strategy.
I hate interesting times
I think the pipeline and this are related. Russia is going to claim that Ukraine is assaulting Russia, blame the pipeline in them (saying it got help from the West), so more heinous shit and escalate.
Is there really much room to escalate? They're already doing war crimes like crazy, they've already started mobilization. Like, short of nuclear weapons or chemical weapons, it feels like they're doing everything they have available other than like, complete mobilization of millions of people beyond what they're currently planning on mobilizing.
I think the sabotage of NS1 and NS2 shows that there is still plenty of room for Russia to escalate. Don't limit your thinking to military escalation. Russia is a terrorist state, previously they haven't hesitated to assassinate people or blow up weapons stores on foreign soil (even in NATO countries).
There are 9000km of Norwegian gas and oil pipes under the North sea. There are dozens of LNG terminals all around the European coastline. They have shown they have the capability, I don't think they would hesitate to launch a full series of terrorist attacks on European energy infrastructure if Putin thinks it is necessary to escalate. They can target politicians, industry and the general public of the EU and UK with bombs and chemical agents. The Russian playbook is full of dirty tricks, and they have done it all before.
I was listening to an interview with a major Ukrainian journalist on Pod Save The World yesterday and one thing he was talking about was the danger of the upcoming winter for Ukraine. Because he seemed to be saying the expectation was Russia would begin attacking civilian infrastructure. You can imagine the damage you could cause blowing up gas lines or power plants in the middle of a cold winter.
And then there's Russia's love for assassinating people on foreign soil too.
There's a ton of ways Russia can just make other people suffer because they are childishly raging about losing this war.
Expectation? They've already been attacking civilian infrastructure throughout the war. They were blowing up pipelines in Ukraine back in February.
They really have been far less aggressive on this front then they could be and the Ukrainians are expecting them to step it up come winter. Especially now that Russia is getting more and more petulant.
Only because their capability to do so has been greatly diminished. They've been all out attacking civilian infrastructure where they can from the beginning of the war though, just ask the residents of Kharkiv or Mariupol. The real fear I have right now is them escalating in the form of directly using chemical weapons, they've already been sort of inching towards this by attacking chemical plants and such and it's not beyond them to do such things as we saw in Syria. They really like the attacking chemical (or possibly in this case) nuclear facilities thing though because in their minds it gives them a veil of deniability.
And there it is. Russian annexation of Luhansk, Donezk, Cherson, and Saporischschja is scheduled for Friday afternoon according to Kremlin spokesperson Peskow.
Fuck, expected but still. Now we have some nerve-wracking days ahead of us when Russia figures out what to do when the Ukranians don't stop taking back their rightful territories. I'm really hoping someone with a cool head is in charge of the big red button in the Kremlin. I really, really, don't want to live in a world where annexations backed up with nukes becomes a playbook strategy.
I hate interesting times
I think the pipeline and this are related. Russia is going to claim that Ukraine is assaulting Russia, blame the pipeline in them (saying it got help from the West), so more heinous shit and escalate.
Is there really much room to escalate? They're already doing war crimes like crazy, they've already started mobilization. Like, short of nuclear weapons or chemical weapons, it feels like they're doing everything they have available other than like, complete mobilization of millions of people beyond what they're currently planning on mobilizing.
I think the sabotage of NS1 and NS2 shows that there is still plenty of room for Russia to escalate. Don't limit your thinking to military escalation. Russia is a terrorist state, previously they haven't hesitated to assassinate people or blow up weapons stores on foreign soil (even in NATO countries).
There are 9000km of Norwegian gas and oil pipes under the North sea. There are dozens of LNG terminals all around the European coastline. They have shown they have the capability, I don't think they would hesitate to launch a full series of terrorist attacks on European energy infrastructure if Putin thinks it is necessary to escalate. They can target politicians, industry and the general public of the EU and UK with bombs and chemical agents. The Russian playbook is full of dirty tricks, and they have done it all before.
I was listening to an interview with a major Ukrainian journalist on Pod Save The World yesterday and one thing he was talking about was the danger of the upcoming winter for Ukraine. Because he seemed to be saying the expectation was Russia would begin attacking civilian infrastructure. You can imagine the damage you could cause blowing up gas lines or power plants in the middle of a cold winter.
And then there's Russia's love for assassinating people on foreign soil too.
There's a ton of ways Russia can just make other people suffer because they are childishly raging about losing this war.
Expectation? They've already been attacking civilian infrastructure throughout the war. They were blowing up pipelines in Ukraine back in February.
They really have been far less aggressive on this front then they could be and the Ukrainians are expecting them to step it up come winter. Especially now that Russia is getting more and more petulant.
Only because their capability to do so has been greatly diminished. They've been all out attacking civilian infrastructure where they can from the beginning of the war though, just ask the residents of Kharkiv or Mariopul. The real fear I have right now is them escalating in the form of directly using chemical weapons, they've already been sort of inching towards this by attacking chemical plants and such and it's not beyond them to do such things as we saw in Syria. They really like the attacking chemical (or possibly in this case) nuclear facilities thing though because in their minds it gives them a veil of deniability.
They really have not. There's plenty of infrastructure from occupied territories still standing. And they wouldn't have needed precision guided weapons for a lot of that stuff.
The only real upside here is their diminished number of weapons capable of precision long-range strikes. But even then they might have a few left and they would probably just hit something bigger to make the most of what's left.
And there it is. Russian annexation of Luhansk, Donezk, Cherson, and Saporischschja is scheduled for Friday afternoon according to Kremlin spokesperson Peskow.
Have they even said what the "results" of the "voting" were yet?
BBC News reported the "results" were 97% in favour of annexation in one of the provinces, 98% in the other three (can't find the screen grab now I'm afraid).
So about as legit as you'd expect. Even Kim Jong-Un would probably go "blimey, that's a bit blatant".
Just in case the numbers weren't dodgy enough, the ballots were marked publicly, dropped in clear glass boxes, and were huge pieces of paper where the "yes" and "no" checkboxes the "voter" marked were visible for anyone to see.
NYT had some great pictures of the "voting" process that made it clear anyone in the stations was casting a very public ballot. Even then there were some photos of workers emptying half-full boxes where most of the ballots were actually unmarked, so they weren't even bothering to make believable fakes.
And there it is. Russian annexation of Luhansk, Donezk, Cherson, and Saporischschja is scheduled for Friday afternoon according to Kremlin spokesperson Peskow.
Fuck, expected but still. Now we have some nerve-wracking days ahead of us when Russia figures out what to do when the Ukranians don't stop taking back their rightful territories. I'm really hoping someone with a cool head is in charge of the big red button in the Kremlin. I really, really, don't want to live in a world where annexations backed up with nukes becomes a playbook strategy.
I hate interesting times
I think the pipeline and this are related. Russia is going to claim that Ukraine is assaulting Russia, blame the pipeline in them (saying it got help from the West), so more heinous shit and escalate.
Is there really much room to escalate? They're already doing war crimes like crazy, they've already started mobilization. Like, short of nuclear weapons or chemical weapons, it feels like they're doing everything they have available other than like, complete mobilization of millions of people beyond what they're currently planning on mobilizing.
I think the sabotage of NS1 and NS2 shows that there is still plenty of room for Russia to escalate. Don't limit your thinking to military escalation. Russia is a terrorist state, previously they haven't hesitated to assassinate people or blow up weapons stores on foreign soil (even in NATO countries).
There are 9000km of Norwegian gas and oil pipes under the North sea. There are dozens of LNG terminals all around the European coastline. They have shown they have the capability, I don't think they would hesitate to launch a full series of terrorist attacks on European energy infrastructure if Putin thinks it is necessary to escalate. They can target politicians, industry and the general public of the EU and UK with bombs and chemical agents. The Russian playbook is full of dirty tricks, and they have done it all before.
NS1 and 2 together cost roughly €30bn, that's now down the drain forever.
German newspapers are now reporting that security agencies think that each of the pipeline leaks was caused by explosions in the range of 500kg TNT equivalent. Not 100kg like originally said.
And there it is. Russian annexation of Luhansk, Donezk, Cherson, and Saporischschja is scheduled for Friday afternoon according to Kremlin spokesperson Peskow.
Fuck, expected but still. Now we have some nerve-wracking days ahead of us when Russia figures out what to do when the Ukranians don't stop taking back their rightful territories. I'm really hoping someone with a cool head is in charge of the big red button in the Kremlin. I really, really, don't want to live in a world where annexations backed up with nukes becomes a playbook strategy.
I hate interesting times
I think the pipeline and this are related. Russia is going to claim that Ukraine is assaulting Russia, blame the pipeline in them (saying it got help from the West), so more heinous shit and escalate.
Is there really much room to escalate? They're already doing war crimes like crazy, they've already started mobilization. Like, short of nuclear weapons or chemical weapons, it feels like they're doing everything they have available other than like, complete mobilization of millions of people beyond what they're currently planning on mobilizing.
I think the sabotage of NS1 and NS2 shows that there is still plenty of room for Russia to escalate. Don't limit your thinking to military escalation. Russia is a terrorist state, previously they haven't hesitated to assassinate people or blow up weapons stores on foreign soil (even in NATO countries).
There are 9000km of Norwegian gas and oil pipes under the North sea. There are dozens of LNG terminals all around the European coastline. They have shown they have the capability, I don't think they would hesitate to launch a full series of terrorist attacks on European energy infrastructure if Putin thinks it is necessary to escalate. They can target politicians, industry and the general public of the EU and UK with bombs and chemical agents. The Russian playbook is full of dirty tricks, and they have done it all before.
NS1 and 2 together cost roughly €30bn, that's now down the drain forever.
You can replace broken sections of pipelines...
Salt water could cause additional damage to seals and such.
And there it is. Russian annexation of Luhansk, Donezk, Cherson, and Saporischschja is scheduled for Friday afternoon according to Kremlin spokesperson Peskow.
Fuck, expected but still. Now we have some nerve-wracking days ahead of us when Russia figures out what to do when the Ukranians don't stop taking back their rightful territories. I'm really hoping someone with a cool head is in charge of the big red button in the Kremlin. I really, really, don't want to live in a world where annexations backed up with nukes becomes a playbook strategy.
I hate interesting times
I think the pipeline and this are related. Russia is going to claim that Ukraine is assaulting Russia, blame the pipeline in them (saying it got help from the West), so more heinous shit and escalate.
Is there really much room to escalate? They're already doing war crimes like crazy, they've already started mobilization. Like, short of nuclear weapons or chemical weapons, it feels like they're doing everything they have available other than like, complete mobilization of millions of people beyond what they're currently planning on mobilizing.
I think the sabotage of NS1 and NS2 shows that there is still plenty of room for Russia to escalate. Don't limit your thinking to military escalation. Russia is a terrorist state, previously they haven't hesitated to assassinate people or blow up weapons stores on foreign soil (even in NATO countries).
There are 9000km of Norwegian gas and oil pipes under the North sea. There are dozens of LNG terminals all around the European coastline. They have shown they have the capability, I don't think they would hesitate to launch a full series of terrorist attacks on European energy infrastructure if Putin thinks it is necessary to escalate. They can target politicians, industry and the general public of the EU and UK with bombs and chemical agents. The Russian playbook is full of dirty tricks, and they have done it all before.
NS1 and 2 together cost roughly €30bn, that's now down the drain forever.
You can replace broken sections of pipelines...
Depends on how far salt water ingresses and how much damage it causes.
From earlier posts, that damage would be fairly quick and extensive.
And there it is. Russian annexation of Luhansk, Donezk, Cherson, and Saporischschja is scheduled for Friday afternoon according to Kremlin spokesperson Peskow.
Fuck, expected but still. Now we have some nerve-wracking days ahead of us when Russia figures out what to do when the Ukranians don't stop taking back their rightful territories. I'm really hoping someone with a cool head is in charge of the big red button in the Kremlin. I really, really, don't want to live in a world where annexations backed up with nukes becomes a playbook strategy.
I hate interesting times
I think the pipeline and this are related. Russia is going to claim that Ukraine is assaulting Russia, blame the pipeline in them (saying it got help from the West), so more heinous shit and escalate.
Is there really much room to escalate? They're already doing war crimes like crazy, they've already started mobilization. Like, short of nuclear weapons or chemical weapons, it feels like they're doing everything they have available other than like, complete mobilization of millions of people beyond what they're currently planning on mobilizing.
I think the sabotage of NS1 and NS2 shows that there is still plenty of room for Russia to escalate. Don't limit your thinking to military escalation. Russia is a terrorist state, previously they haven't hesitated to assassinate people or blow up weapons stores on foreign soil (even in NATO countries).
There are 9000km of Norwegian gas and oil pipes under the North sea. There are dozens of LNG terminals all around the European coastline. They have shown they have the capability, I don't think they would hesitate to launch a full series of terrorist attacks on European energy infrastructure if Putin thinks it is necessary to escalate. They can target politicians, industry and the general public of the EU and UK with bombs and chemical agents. The Russian playbook is full of dirty tricks, and they have done it all before.
NS1 and 2 together cost roughly €30bn, that's now down the drain forever.
You can replace broken sections of pipelines...
Salt water could cause additional damage to seals and such.
Pretty sure most seals handle salt water just fine. They have more problems with Orcas and the like.
So, okay, this might be...too aggressive and personal, maybe even too much of a digression
But the "just do something, Russian people, this is your fault" sort of posting just...I don't think people have really thought about what that would involve, for a person, on a personal level. Let's just take a simple horrible thing that happened during the Trump presidency. There were torturous concentration camps for immigrants. For children. Intentionally creating long term trauma. Did you sit there, and think, about what standing against that would mean for you?
"That's completely different, this is SO much worse!" someone might say. I'm not here to rank tragedies, I'm here to say, here's one situation, here's a situation where people in other countries probably wanted you to Do Something, what would that entail?
This stuff is complex, and big, and it feels different when it's next door as opposed to across the world.
+53
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Handsome CostanzaAsk me about 8bitdoRIP Iwata-sanRegistered Userregular
And there it is. Russian annexation of Luhansk, Donezk, Cherson, and Saporischschja is scheduled for Friday afternoon according to Kremlin spokesperson Peskow.
Fuck, expected but still. Now we have some nerve-wracking days ahead of us when Russia figures out what to do when the Ukranians don't stop taking back their rightful territories. I'm really hoping someone with a cool head is in charge of the big red button in the Kremlin. I really, really, don't want to live in a world where annexations backed up with nukes becomes a playbook strategy.
I hate interesting times
I think the pipeline and this are related. Russia is going to claim that Ukraine is assaulting Russia, blame the pipeline in them (saying it got help from the West), so more heinous shit and escalate.
Is there really much room to escalate? They're already doing war crimes like crazy, they've already started mobilization. Like, short of nuclear weapons or chemical weapons, it feels like they're doing everything they have available other than like, complete mobilization of millions of people beyond what they're currently planning on mobilizing.
I think the sabotage of NS1 and NS2 shows that there is still plenty of room for Russia to escalate. Don't limit your thinking to military escalation. Russia is a terrorist state, previously they haven't hesitated to assassinate people or blow up weapons stores on foreign soil (even in NATO countries).
There are 9000km of Norwegian gas and oil pipes under the North sea. There are dozens of LNG terminals all around the European coastline. They have shown they have the capability, I don't think they would hesitate to launch a full series of terrorist attacks on European energy infrastructure if Putin thinks it is necessary to escalate. They can target politicians, industry and the general public of the EU and UK with bombs and chemical agents. The Russian playbook is full of dirty tricks, and they have done it all before.
I was listening to an interview with a major Ukrainian journalist on Pod Save The World yesterday and one thing he was talking about was the danger of the upcoming winter for Ukraine. Because he seemed to be saying the expectation was Russia would begin attacking civilian infrastructure. You can imagine the damage you could cause blowing up gas lines or power plants in the middle of a cold winter.
And then there's Russia's love for assassinating people on foreign soil too.
There's a ton of ways Russia can just make other people suffer because they are childishly raging about losing this war.
Expectation? They've already been attacking civilian infrastructure throughout the war. They were blowing up pipelines in Ukraine back in February.
They really have been far less aggressive on this front then they could be and the Ukrainians are expecting them to step it up come winter. Especially now that Russia is getting more and more petulant.
Only because their capability to do so has been greatly diminished. They've been all out attacking civilian infrastructure where they can from the beginning of the war though, just ask the residents of Kharkiv or Mariopul. The real fear I have right now is them escalating in the form of directly using chemical weapons, they've already been sort of inching towards this by attacking chemical plants and such and it's not beyond them to do such things as we saw in Syria. They really like the attacking chemical (or possibly in this case) nuclear facilities thing though because in their minds it gives them a veil of deniability.
They really have not. There's plenty of infrastructure from occupied territories still standing. And they wouldn't have needed precision guided weapons for a lot of that stuff.
The only real upside here is their diminished number of weapons capable of precision long-range strikes. But even then they might have a few left and they would probably just hit something bigger to make the most of what's left.
Then why did Kharkiv look like this 3 weeks into the invasion?
Over 600 buildings in the city have been destroyed, Mayor Ihor Terekhov said Tuesday. They include schools, nurseries and hospitals. "The Russian army is constantly shelling us from the ground and the air," he said
The mayor of the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol said Monday that more than 10,000 civilians have died in the Russian siege of his city, and that the death toll could surpass 20,000, with corpses that were “carpeted through the streets.”
They absolutely have already been doing this, their occupation of various towns without doing the same does not preclude them from doing this and would happen even if they did have the capability right now to take the gloves off, so to speak. The Russians need infrastructure too.
It's not just their long range precision munitions that have been depleted. Their artillery units have been absolutely shredded by the Ukrainians and the formations that still exist have been pushed back outside of maximum range. Their air force has taken so much damage that its practically not even a factor at this point in terms of being able to carry out large scale bombing missions. They're not shelling cities right now on even the level they were previously in the war because they can't, not because they don't want to.
So, okay, this might be...too aggressive and personal, maybe even too much of a digression
But the "just do something, Russian people, this is your fault" sort of posting just...I don't think people have really thought about what that would involve, for a person, on a personal level. Let's just take a simple horrible thing that happened during the Trump presidency. There were torturous concentration camps for immigrants. For children. Intentionally creating long term trauma. Did you sit there, and think, about what standing against that would mean for you?
"That's completely different, this is SO much worse!" someone might say. I'm not here to rank tragedies, I'm here to say, here's one situation, here's a situation where people in other countries probably wanted you to Do Something, what would that entail?
This stuff is complex, and big, and it feels different when it's next door as opposed to across the world.
I agree up until the point where I have the choice between being forced to pick up a gun and invade a foreign country or turn that weapon against the person making me do that.
I'm dead either way, may as well die not being a goose.
Pavel Pchelnikov of the Russian Railway subsidiary company "Digital Logistics" has reportedly committed suicide in Moscow. His body was found on the balcony.
Best guess is that he was going to be another case of Window-itis, but managed to fight back for a bit, so gunshot it is.
Pavel Pchelnikov of the Russian Railway subsidiary company "Digital Logistics" has reportedly committed suicide in Moscow. His body was found on the balcony.
On the balcony? The FSB must be getting tired of heavy lifting.
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MonwynApathy's a tragedy, and boredom is a crime.A little bit of everything, all of the time.Registered Userregular
Really starting to look like Russia has a modern-day Business Plot going on (or Putin thought there was, anyway) and they decided to solve the problem at the source.
Really starting to look like Russia has a modern-day Business Plot going on (or Putin thought there was, anyway) and they decided to solve the problem at the source.
Or, you know, Vlad blaming everybody else for getting his ass kicked on Ukraine.
So, okay, this might be...too aggressive and personal, maybe even too much of a digression
But the "just do something, Russian people, this is your fault" sort of posting just...I don't think people have really thought about what that would involve, for a person, on a personal level. Let's just take a simple horrible thing that happened during the Trump presidency. There were torturous concentration camps for immigrants. For children. Intentionally creating long term trauma. Did you sit there, and think, about what standing against that would mean for you?
"That's completely different, this is SO much worse!" someone might say. I'm not here to rank tragedies, I'm here to say, here's one situation, here's a situation where people in other countries probably wanted you to Do Something, what would that entail?
This stuff is complex, and big, and it feels different when it's next door as opposed to across the world.
I agree up until the point where I have the choice between being forced to pick up a gun and invade a foreign country or turn that weapon against the person making me do that.
I'm dead either way, may as well die not being a goose.
This is ignoring a LOT of details. If you go off to die, your family might get paid SOMETHING. If you turn around and engage your oppresors (who probably won't give you a weapon till you are in Ukraine) may decide to start implementing collective punishment and imprison/torture/execute your entire family for your actions. You are talking about a gov't already issuing conscription notices to people protesting, which is functionally the same as saying "just protesting is a death sentence".
So, okay, this might be...too aggressive and personal, maybe even too much of a digression
But the "just do something, Russian people, this is your fault" sort of posting just...I don't think people have really thought about what that would involve, for a person, on a personal level. Let's just take a simple horrible thing that happened during the Trump presidency. There were torturous concentration camps for immigrants. For children. Intentionally creating long term trauma. Did you sit there, and think, about what standing against that would mean for you?
"That's completely different, this is SO much worse!" someone might say. I'm not here to rank tragedies, I'm here to say, here's one situation, here's a situation where people in other countries probably wanted you to Do Something, what would that entail?
This stuff is complex, and big, and it feels different when it's next door as opposed to across the world.
I agree up until the point where I have the choice between being forced to pick up a gun and invade a foreign country or turn that weapon against the person making me do that.
I'm dead either way, may as well die not being a goose.
Were you alive during the Iraq War? Now ask yourself what you would have done if drafted.
And not to dodge my own question: I would have gone, I would have fought, and I would have hoped to come alive.
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Instead they're just doing that to people in Ukraine. It sucks that the Ukranian people have to suffer for the inaction of the Russian people.
Godspeed and let us know if you need money. I know that many of us will help in any possible way we can.
Magic Online - Bertro
Speeds things up and lets him give a big blustering speech right afterwards. Russia is continuing to get wrecked around Lyman, so they might want to make it 'official' before they lose more of the territory that they're trying to claim. Big question is still what Russia does when Ukraine doesn't stop.
Again, we know what happened when Crimea got attacked: Nothing.
A Russian revolt would be in the same scenario as Ukraine was facing without any NATO support, with even less training and material. The USA will not be sending HIMARS to Russian rebels, nor likely providing real time reconnaissance intel to them either.
I would absolutely love to see the Russian mobilization turn around and depose Putin, but it's likely certain death for an uncertain future. At least they have a chance to surrender if they are on the battlefield in Ukraine. No one inside Russia even has that chance.
It's a bad situation!
If a Russian civil war erupts, good chance a UN coalition is assembled purely to secure the nukes.
That only happens when Putin is dead. If Putin is alive and he loses the nukes he will either shortly be dead or eventually facing the Hague. There cannot be any outside (Western) influence inside Russia as long as Putin is capable of ordering a nuclear launch
It is and I hate this. But the big problem - we simply can't organize into some sort of rebel army or even just angry mob. The size of Russia, I say, plays cruel joke with us - all sparks of protest are just too far from each other and can't combine and strengthen each other up. As things stand - each one is put down or at least pacified like with Chechnya and Dagestan and never goes beyond local level
See also: Belgorod
China will be all for leading that coalition and you can be sure that once the nukes are secured will never leave to ensure Russia's land and natural resources remain fully protected for all time.
God be with you
I think that the best chance that Putin gets deposed is that some Russian general finds himself posted to Moscow or St. Petersburg with an army he thinks is loyal enough to him and with Putin in the area, and tries to go for a sudden decapitation. Beyond that? It'd be pretty tough.
I'm no expert, but I was thinking about this earlier and it does make it seem like a collapse into smaller nationstates would be more likely than a true revolution. Dagestan might rise up, but no one in Moscow will rise up to support them. So the absolute best Dagestan could do is revolt locally, break off and take care of themselves.
I'm having serious doubts a coup will change things. It seems like the top two replacement contenders from what I can see are Medvedev, who seems like an idiot (possibly an alcoholic one), and the Wagner guy who probably wants to start a Fourth Reich, Russia version.
Yeah, it'd definitely be worse. But at the same time, the Russian government is the responsibility of the Russian people. It doesn't exist without them. And Ukraine is not going to do anything about the Russian government. At best they're going to retake their own territory from Russian occupation. Somebody's dying either way. I dunno, there's no good solution and I'm probably wrong in thinking this, but in the back of my mind I keep thinking, "You let this happen, do something, anything."
Yeah, it definitely is an impossible situation. I dunno, there's just this sort of helplessness and impotence about the whole situation that's incredibly frustrating.
I really hope Ukraine doesn't stop and they just keep pushing until the "annexed" areas are secured.
Honestly I had to stop following what the Russians were saying so much as it makes me angry to unhealthy levels. That's no good for anybody.
You've made the right decision, get out any way you possibly can as safely as you possibly can.
Resident 8bitdo expert.
Resident hybrid/flap cover expert.
They really have been far less aggressive on this front then they could be and the Ukrainians are expecting them to step it up come winter. Especially now that Russia is getting more and more petulant.
That could maybe be done all at once.
The kicker would be if they held their own referendum on the subject, and got shit from Russia about the result only being 84%.
That's a real dicey proposition and depends a lot on how the current Russian regime falls apart.
Ideally there's some opening to jump in there and disarm the nuclear arsenal but it may well be the best we can hope for is another more stable strongman takes over. What to do when a nuclear power collapses is a problem we managed to put on hold for 30 years or so but now it seems like that might be all it was.
Only because their capability to do so has been greatly diminished. They've been all out attacking civilian infrastructure where they can from the beginning of the war though, just ask the residents of Kharkiv or Mariupol. The real fear I have right now is them escalating in the form of directly using chemical weapons, they've already been sort of inching towards this by attacking chemical plants and such and it's not beyond them to do such things as we saw in Syria. They really like the attacking chemical (or possibly in this case) nuclear facilities thing though because in their minds it gives them a veil of deniability.
Resident 8bitdo expert.
Resident hybrid/flap cover expert.
Especially with my immediate family being as it is, that was quite a discussion about being ungrateful idiot...
They really have not. There's plenty of infrastructure from occupied territories still standing. And they wouldn't have needed precision guided weapons for a lot of that stuff.
The only real upside here is their diminished number of weapons capable of precision long-range strikes. But even then they might have a few left and they would probably just hit something bigger to make the most of what's left.
Just in case the numbers weren't dodgy enough, the ballots were marked publicly, dropped in clear glass boxes, and were huge pieces of paper where the "yes" and "no" checkboxes the "voter" marked were visible for anyone to see.
NYT had some great pictures of the "voting" process that made it clear anyone in the stations was casting a very public ballot. Even then there were some photos of workers emptying half-full boxes where most of the ballots were actually unmarked, so they weren't even bothering to make believable fakes.
You can replace broken sections of pipelines...
Salt water could cause additional damage to seals and such.
Depends on how far salt water ingresses and how much damage it causes.
From earlier posts, that damage would be fairly quick and extensive.
Pretty sure most seals handle salt water just fine. They have more problems with Orcas and the like.
But the "just do something, Russian people, this is your fault" sort of posting just...I don't think people have really thought about what that would involve, for a person, on a personal level. Let's just take a simple horrible thing that happened during the Trump presidency. There were torturous concentration camps for immigrants. For children. Intentionally creating long term trauma. Did you sit there, and think, about what standing against that would mean for you?
"That's completely different, this is SO much worse!" someone might say. I'm not here to rank tragedies, I'm here to say, here's one situation, here's a situation where people in other countries probably wanted you to Do Something, what would that entail?
This stuff is complex, and big, and it feels different when it's next door as opposed to across the world.
Then why did Kharkiv look like this 3 weeks into the invasion?
Why does Mariupol look like this?
Source.
They absolutely have already been doing this, their occupation of various towns without doing the same does not preclude them from doing this and would happen even if they did have the capability right now to take the gloves off, so to speak. The Russians need infrastructure too.
It's not just their long range precision munitions that have been depleted. Their artillery units have been absolutely shredded by the Ukrainians and the formations that still exist have been pushed back outside of maximum range. Their air force has taken so much damage that its practically not even a factor at this point in terms of being able to carry out large scale bombing missions. They're not shelling cities right now on even the level they were previously in the war because they can't, not because they don't want to.
Resident 8bitdo expert.
Resident hybrid/flap cover expert.
I agree up until the point where I have the choice between being forced to pick up a gun and invade a foreign country or turn that weapon against the person making me do that.
I'm dead either way, may as well die not being a goose.
Best guess is that he was going to be another case of Window-itis, but managed to fight back for a bit, so gunshot it is.
On the balcony? The FSB must be getting tired of heavy lifting.
Or, you know, Vlad blaming everybody else for getting his ass kicked on Ukraine.
This is ignoring a LOT of details. If you go off to die, your family might get paid SOMETHING. If you turn around and engage your oppresors (who probably won't give you a weapon till you are in Ukraine) may decide to start implementing collective punishment and imprison/torture/execute your entire family for your actions. You are talking about a gov't already issuing conscription notices to people protesting, which is functionally the same as saying "just protesting is a death sentence".
War Monitor is an OSInt account
Russian sources are also apparently reporting this. Nahin also fought in Syria, Georgia and Chechnya.
- John Stuart Mill
Were you alive during the Iraq War? Now ask yourself what you would have done if drafted.
And not to dodge my own question: I would have gone, I would have fought, and I would have hoped to come alive.