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    TuminTumin Registered User regular
    edited July 2023
    Even if it is the end, unless something drifts away from the LLM landscape, it seems like the value of a service built on ML drops to the price of electricity real quick. These ML things spin up so fast. Lots of work for integrating things though. ML doesnt seem to make anyone particularly rich except service vendors, it reduces your labor a little and adds competitive pressure

    Spinning up additional ML on AWS seems a lot cheaper and easier then trying to find more call center employees, so your competitors can do it too. Once youre just a platform of services tied together, what are you even doing?

    Tumin on
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    TavTav Irish Minister for DefenceRegistered User regular
    Orca wrote: »
    Tav wrote: »
    Orca wrote: »
    Orca wrote: »
    zagdrob wrote: »
    I looked at Prime Day but nothing seemed like a good enough deal to actually jump on it.

    I thought about a 4TB M.2 SSD, but by the time I need it I'll probably be able to get an equivalent one just as cheap or cheaper elsewhere. We looked at premium coffee makers but same thing, we can probably find one close enough in price elsewhere to not have to deal with Amazon.

    The rest was knock-off Chinese stuff that I didn't really need to spend money on.

    Maybe. Maybe not. Right now SSDs are cheap (especially WD ones) because there has been an on-going surplus of NAND due to Enterprise (and consumer) pulling back on their buys.

    Right now is probably a decent time to get an inexpensive drive that isn't filled with super crap NAND because the memory companies are desperate to ship their supply and get into the positive cash flow (according to investor filings, WD is still burning $500mil/quarter and only has like, $2bil in the bank).

    oof

    I don't want WD to fail, there aren't many manufacturers of spinning rust left, and I still like using spinning rust for mass storage.

    Based on the public filings, it seems like the vulture capitalist, sorry, "activist investor" group has taken on a lot of the driving, and they're pushing to split the two entities the spinning rust, and the memory, and then selling off/merging the memory side with Kioxia.

    So I don't think the spinners will go anywhere, and there's always seagate.

    There's been too much consolidation already. We're left with, what, Seagate and WD? Who else is big enough to matter?

    i've got some Toshiba drives

    three companies for a niche, expensive space seems fair

    Yeah, but assume WD fails, now we're left with 2

    wd will be fine

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    dlinfinitidlinfiniti Registered User regular
    Orca wrote: »
    dlinfiniti wrote: »
    Eh actual machine learning is not really a bubble in the way crypto was

    The current AI craze seems like another bubble to me, but maybe it really is the end of artists, voice actors, programmers, writers, et. al. the way the current hype says it will be

    I'm talking about things like self driving cars and automation and things like that in which the processing power driving the technologies are 100% Nvidia's wheelhouse which is operating on a more standard tech development timeline which can be bubblish I suppose but definitely not a speculative bubble like crypto

    AAAAA!!! PLAAAYGUUU!!!!
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    override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    dlinfiniti wrote: »
    Eh actual machine learning is not really a bubble in the way crypto was

    I think it is, investors are predicting it to be a multi trillion dollar business

    the issue isn't that there aren't lots of applications for ML models, the issue is that it's unlikely to actually generate trillions in revenue or whatever

    While big expensive to run chatgpt gets all the news, bespoke open source models are improving every week and getting cheaper to run

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    Havelock2.0Havelock2.0 Sufficiently Chill The Chill ZoneRegistered User regular
    Pic for reference
    gvj7nuhlgdj1.jpeg

    Third member took the picture

    I’m the idiot in the AFI shirt

    How weird would it be if we hung out or were the same places but just like never knew it. Cus i lived in Sac from like 10/01-08/11, arrived after high school up in the mountains and then left for grad school in upstate NY. still come back to Sac every year to see people.

    I do remember seeing AFI at that Warped Tour, and I loved the Vandals show. People named Lars suck, so fuck Rancid. Damn, that was a fun day. Just an 18 year old kid wandering around the pier in the sun. Eventually went back to SF later to see a Bad Religion show at the Fillmore. That was fun as hell.

    Did you high school at El Dorado?

    You go in the cage, cage goes in the water, you go in the water. Shark's in the water, our shark.
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    thatassemblyguythatassemblyguy Janitor of Technical Debt .Registered User regular
    Tav wrote: »
    Orca wrote: »
    Tav wrote: »
    Orca wrote: »
    Orca wrote: »
    zagdrob wrote: »
    I looked at Prime Day but nothing seemed like a good enough deal to actually jump on it.

    I thought about a 4TB M.2 SSD, but by the time I need it I'll probably be able to get an equivalent one just as cheap or cheaper elsewhere. We looked at premium coffee makers but same thing, we can probably find one close enough in price elsewhere to not have to deal with Amazon.

    The rest was knock-off Chinese stuff that I didn't really need to spend money on.

    Maybe. Maybe not. Right now SSDs are cheap (especially WD ones) because there has been an on-going surplus of NAND due to Enterprise (and consumer) pulling back on their buys.

    Right now is probably a decent time to get an inexpensive drive that isn't filled with super crap NAND because the memory companies are desperate to ship their supply and get into the positive cash flow (according to investor filings, WD is still burning $500mil/quarter and only has like, $2bil in the bank).

    oof

    I don't want WD to fail, there aren't many manufacturers of spinning rust left, and I still like using spinning rust for mass storage.

    Based on the public filings, it seems like the vulture capitalist, sorry, "activist investor" group has taken on a lot of the driving, and they're pushing to split the two entities the spinning rust, and the memory, and then selling off/merging the memory side with Kioxia.

    So I don't think the spinners will go anywhere, and there's always seagate.

    There's been too much consolidation already. We're left with, what, Seagate and WD? Who else is big enough to matter?

    i've got some Toshiba drives

    three companies for a niche, expensive space seems fair

    Yeah, but assume WD fails, now we're left with 2

    wd will be fine

    I mean. Their assets and factories making the spinners will continue on, but.. uh.. things are definitely.. spicy.. there right now.

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    Havelock2.0Havelock2.0 Sufficiently Chill The Chill ZoneRegistered User regular
    Geth prime the fleshlight

    You go in the cage, cage goes in the water, you go in the water. Shark's in the water, our shark.
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    Donkey KongDonkey Kong Putting Nintendo out of business with AI nips Registered User regular
    edited July 2023
    Actual AI research is rad and lots of cool things are happening at some companies and in academia. Its a very exciting time for nerds like me.

    The amount of money currently changing hands for obviously bad or half-formed ideas makes no sense, and I am not sure what in the everloving fuck is going on.

    For example large language models (chat gpt, llama, etc) are totally killer but instead of coming up with a cool thing thats an actual problem to solve, and investing in integrating this tech deeply with it and solving it well, we are instead seeing a bunch of insane half baked bullshit fire off into already saturated markets. Like trying to have language models become search engines or knowledge databases or to replace screenwriters???

    You make it so computers can talk, you've cracked natural language processing, and you want to use that to make the computer... do creative work where all it can do is imitate bland version of things, and pretend that language == knowledge and use word associations to make up facts??? No?!?? And also these dont seem like moneymakers either????

    I would liken it to if somebody invented the computer and then kept trying to sell them as space heaters. Yeah they'll heat a space but like, this isn't a great use for them, we have better and cheaper solutions already, and it seems to be entirely missing their actual utility.

    Donkey Kong on
    Thousands of hot, local singles are waiting to play at bubbulon.com.
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    TTODewbackTTODewback Puts the drawl in ya'll I think I'm in HellRegistered User regular
    if WD fails it'll be because it's the literal Armageddon and the meteor shower is just pummeling earth and killing everyone while the Military AI satellite that blew up the moon laughs maniacally

    Bless your heart.
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    japanjapan Registered User regular
    edited July 2023
    dlinfiniti wrote: »
    Eh actual machine learning is not really a bubble in the way crypto was

    I think large language models are a bubble

    It's mostly a gamble that bots will become the way that people interact with computers in the future, like VR, or alexa et al

    I think they'll probably be useful for something but I don't think anyone has convincingly demonstrated what it is yet

    japan on
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    override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    edited July 2023
    Tumin wrote: »
    Even if it is the end, unless something drifts away from the LLM landscape, it seems like the value of a service built on ML drops to the price of electricity real quick. These ML things spin up so fast. Lots of work for integrating things though. ML doesnt seem to make anyone particularly rich except service vendors, it reduces your labor a little and adds competitive pressure

    Spinning up additional ML on AWS seems a lot cheaper and easier then trying to find more call center employees, so your competitors can do it too. Once youre just a platform of services tied together, what are you even doing?

    I don't see how Nvidia's valuation makes any sense, I don't think they're actually going to sell a trillion dollars worth of hardware and services in the next decade, their value looks like someone is literally plotting the interest over time on a graph for generative AI from the last 18 months into the future and putting it all on black

    override367 on
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    TuminTumin Registered User regular
    *slaps AI*

    This little guy can solve so many color tiling problems

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    TTODewbackTTODewback Puts the drawl in ya'll I think I'm in HellRegistered User regular
    One of our student workers still has 600 dollars left on his meal plan that he needs to use and he's just been rolling by with carts full of wholesale cases of red bull and shit.

    Bless your heart.
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    dlinfinitidlinfiniti Registered User regular
    edited July 2023
    Right but the point is that different fads in machine learning language models doesn't change the fact tha Nvidia currently dominates the hardware space and regardless of what happens in the software space their business is secure for now as everyone else is at least two generations behind them when it comes to processing for all the current models and as long as they continue to stay on top of their r&d they should stay there

    dlinfiniti on
    AAAAA!!! PLAAAYGUUU!!!!
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    TavTav Irish Minister for DefenceRegistered User regular
    i've set my sights on the camera i want to buy and i'm very excited to get a new shiny but also i hate fomo about what other, better things might be out there!!

  • Options
    TuminTumin Registered User regular
    edited July 2023
    Tumin wrote: »
    Even if it is the end, unless something drifts away from the LLM landscape, it seems like the value of a service built on ML drops to the price of electricity real quick. These ML things spin up so fast. Lots of work for integrating things though. ML doesnt seem to make anyone particularly rich except service vendors, it reduces your labor a little and adds competitive pressure

    Spinning up additional ML on AWS seems a lot cheaper and easier then trying to find more call center employees, so your competitors can do it too. Once youre just a platform of services tied together, what are you even doing?

    I don't see how Nvidia's valuation makes any sense, I don't think they're actually going to sell a trillion dollars worth of hardware and services in the next decade, their value looks like someone is literally plotting the interest over time on a graph for generative AI from the last 18 months into the future and putting it all on black

    I mean, I dont believe in current stock valuations but I do expect Nvidia to print money for a decade just being infrastructure and plug-and-play tech compared to like, ChatGPT, where they are gonna have to really work hard to differentiate their offering

    Tumin on
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    jungleroomxjungleroomx It's never too many graves, it's always not enough shovels Registered User regular
    Tav wrote: »
    i've set my sights on the camera i want to buy and i'm very excited to get a new shiny but also i hate fomo about what other, better things might be out there!!

    FOMO is a bitch and unavoidable unless you do the galaxy brain move and just slip into depression so nothing matters

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    OrcaOrca Also known as Espressosaurus WrexRegistered User regular
    edited July 2023
    Tav wrote: »
    i've set my sights on the camera i want to buy and i'm very excited to get a new shiny but also i hate fomo about what other, better things might be out there!!

    You want to buy a Sony A1

    Orca on
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    shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Actual AI research is rad and lots of cool things are happening at some companies and in academia. Its a very exciting time for nerds like me.

    The amount of money currently changing hands for obviously bad or half-formed ideas makes no sense, and I am not sure what in the everloving fuck is going on.

    For example large language models (chat gpt, llama, etc) are totally killer but instead of coming up with a cool thing thats an actual problem to solve, and investing in integrating this tech deeply with it and solving it well, we are instead seeing a bunch of insane half baked bullshit fire off into already saturated markets. Like trying to have language models become search engines or knowledge databases or to replace screenwriters???

    You make it so computers can talk, you've cracked natural language processing, and you want to use that to make the computer... do creative work where all it can do is imitate bland version of things, and pretend that language == knowledge and use word associations to make up facts??? No?!?? And also these dont seem like moneymakers either????

    I would liken it to if somebody invented the computer and then kept trying to sell them as space heaters. Yeah they'll heat a space but like, this isn't a great use for them, we have better and cheaper solutions already, and it seems to be entirely missing their actual utility.

    Everyone wants AI to replace people and a lot of people with money think we're there now so they are pouring said money into the space and expecting returns.

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    jungleroomxjungleroomx It's never too many graves, it's always not enough shovels Registered User regular
    dlinfiniti wrote: »
    Right but the point is that different fads in machine learning language models doesn't change the fact tha Nvidia currently dominates the hardware space and regardless of what happens in the software space their business is secure for now as everyone else is at least two generations behind them when it comes to processing for all the current models and as long as they continue to stay on top of their r&d they should stay there

    I feel like Nvidia is gonna pull an IBM and vacate the consumer/gpu GPU space.

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    OrcaOrca Also known as Espressosaurus WrexRegistered User regular
    Check that, Hasselblad is the way to go

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    GethGeth Legion Perseus VeilRegistered User, Moderator, Penny Arcade Staff, Vanilla Staff vanilla
    This thread is no longer active, and will be recycled.
    On average, this thread was blasting along at warp 0.8

    @Orca will create the new thread
    @Orca is backup

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    GethGeth Legion Perseus VeilRegistered User, Moderator, Penny Arcade Staff, Vanilla Staff vanilla
    This thread is no longer active, and will be recycled.
    On average, this thread was speeding through space at warp 0.8

    @override367 will create the new thread
    @Orca is backup

This discussion has been closed.