Unborking the [Ukraine] discussion

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  • Knuckle DraggerKnuckle Dragger Explosive Ovine Disposal Registered User regular


    From Kevin Rothrock at Meduza:
    State investigators have reportedly given Navalny's mother an ultimatum: agree within the next three hours to a private burial for her son without a public funeral, or they'll bury him in secret without her. She's refused and demands the return of Navalny's body.

    They were never going to allow her to have custody of the body, because that might allow an independent autopsy. I can't imagine this turning out the way Putin wants it. No matter what public outpouring of support Nalvany's funeral might have received, it couldn't have been less than what will come as a result of this... and now it's not going to have a single focal location they can monitor. Also, fuck Putin.

    Let not any one pacify his conscience by the delusion that he can do no harm if he takes no part, and forms no opinion.

    - John Stuart Mill
  • SmrtnikSmrtnik job boli zub Registered User regular
    edited February 23
    Gilgaron wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Let's not go down this rabithole. The Armenia/Azerbaijan thing is the Israel/Palestine conflict of the Caucasus.

    It reads more like the Balkans of the Caucus to me. But really, the specific analogue doesn't matter. Feels like one of those situations where a lot of horrible conflict is going to happen till ethnic groups end up geographically contiguous behind borders either side can secure.

    I don’t think anything can really match the balkans. You can’t really understand the absolute arbitrariness of racism until you’ve sat in a bar in Croatia and had a local generic looking white dude explain to you how the people 20 miles down the road are irredeemable assholes that are the scum of the earth, then you drive half an hour to Montenegro and have an identical looking white dude in an identical looking bar give you the same speil about the guy you just talked to.

    Buddy of mine studied some languages over there and said it was kinda funny that mutually intelligible dialects were very vehemently considered separate languages by the locals. Somehow they simultaneously had trouble understanding how he could tell what nationality an English speaker was after a brief conversation.


    That’s honestly not too uncommon, IIRC Hindi and Urdu are very similar yet also vehemently considered seperate. Often the difference between a dialect and a separate language is more political than linguistic (there are plenty of ‘languages’ that are more similar than ‘dialects’ of even English, much less something like Arabic where speakers of different ‘dialects’ often can’t even understand each other.)


    Edit: for a bit more explanation though, I am not an expert but my understanding is that the different varieties of spoken Serbian and Croatian (and also Bosnian and Montenegrin) are almost identical, but the languages were traditionally written in different alphabets - Serbian in Cyrillic and Croatian in Roman. But nowadays a lot of Serbians even, especially outside Serbia proper, have moved over to Roman script anyway.

    Slovenian and Macedonian were always a decent amount different, but the rest (Croatian, Bosnian, Serbian, Montenegran) were essentially the same except for some words having a difference in that Croatia used an i and Serbia/Montenegro used an e, and Bosnia je in the middle of the word (milk = mliko/mleko/mljeko). During the 90s wars, everyone dug deep in medieval literature for anachronistic words to differentiate as much as possible, as a sense of identity. It was a big deal at the time, and people would even go at far as pretend they didn't understand you at all if you didn't conform.

    In Croatia this meant going for medieval Croatian dialects and you get Listopad (Leaffall) for September (and similar for other months), and other portmanteau like that. Same with Bosnian Croats.

    In Serbia, Montenegro (and Bosnian Serbs) you get something similar, but with a good dose of anti-west sprinkle so there are local alternatives to imported western Europe words.

    Bosnian Muslims went with a bunch of Ottoman era words.

    Smrtnik on
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  • Knuckle DraggerKnuckle Dragger Explosive Ovine Disposal Registered User regular
    So remember five weeks ago, when Ukraine shot down one of Russia's ersatz AWACS over the sea of Azov?

    https://kyivindependent.com/russian-a50-plane-shot-down-over-azov-sea-military-says/
    The Ukrainian Air Force downed another Russian A-50 military aircraft over the Azov Sea, Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk reported on Feb. 23.

    There's video of the plane spitting out about 30 flares before exploding. I don't know how many of these Russia has in service, but I don't think it's a lot.

    Let not any one pacify his conscience by the delusion that he can do no harm if he takes no part, and forms no opinion.

    - John Stuart Mill
  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User, Moderator mod
    So remember five weeks ago, when Ukraine shot down one of Russia's ersatz AWACS over the sea of Azov?

    https://kyivindependent.com/russian-a50-plane-shot-down-over-azov-sea-military-says/
    The Ukrainian Air Force downed another Russian A-50 military aircraft over the Azov Sea, Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk reported on Feb. 23.

    There's video of the plane spitting out about 30 flares before exploding. I don't know how many of these Russia has in service, but I don't think it's a lot.

    They have - well, had - eight or so.

    Also there's some noises that the shootdown was actually over Russia proper, somewhere south of Rostov, which is ... way in the Russian rear compared to earlier shootdowns.

    Wonder if Ukraine got some new gear, or if Russian air defense is getting porous enough for aircraft to push that far forward to hit targets like that.

  • honoverehonovere Registered User regular
    edited February 23
    I think Russia is going all out offense right now, leading up to the anniversary of the invasion.
    There's way more airstrikes near the front lately, as far as I can tell. So they're probably a lot less careful where and when they send jets with glide bombs and stuff instead of the usual handful of long range missiles and drones.

    Edit: also this was like 200 miles behind the front line? That's way outside the official range of patriot, right?

    honovere on
  • Alistair HuttonAlistair Hutton Dr EdinburghRegistered User regular
    So remember five weeks ago, when Ukraine shot down one of Russia's ersatz AWACS over the sea of Azov?

    https://kyivindependent.com/russian-a50-plane-shot-down-over-azov-sea-military-says/
    The Ukrainian Air Force downed another Russian A-50 military aircraft over the Azov Sea, Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk reported on Feb. 23.

    There's video of the plane spitting out about 30 flares before exploding. I don't know how many of these Russia has in service, but I don't think it's a lot.

    You can count the number of operational a50s on two hands. Possibly only 1 hand now.

    I have a thoughtful and infrequently updated blog about games http://whatithinkaboutwhenithinkaboutgames.wordpress.com/

    I made a game, it has penguins in it. It's pay what you like on Gumroad.

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  • LabelLabel Registered User regular
    If I recall correctly, I believe the current theory for Ukraine's air shootdowns is they're rushing Patriot systems up to forward positions, and using them to 'ambush' Russian air forces in the rear with the suddenly extended range.

    I believe it's the german patriot systems that are considered mobile enough to do it. Not designed for it, so it's sort of an off-label activity, but you can do it.

  • V1mV1m Registered User regular
    edited February 23
    honovere wrote: »
    I think Russia is going all out offense right now, leading up to the anniversary of the invasion.
    There's way more airstrikes near the front lately, as far as I can tell. So they're probably a lot less careful where and when they send jets with glide bombs and stuff instead of the usual handful of long range missiles and drones.

    Yeah but A50s don't launch glide bombs or anything else, any more than ant NATO AWACs does. It's strictly sensors and comms and is supposed to stay well the fuck away from the actual shooty shooty
    Label wrote: »
    If I recall correctly, I believe the current theory for Ukraine's air shootdowns is they're rushing Patriot systems up to forward positions, and using them to 'ambush' Russian air forces in the rear with the suddenly extended range.

    I believe it's the german patriot systems that are considered mobile enough to do it. Not designed for it, so it's sort of an off-label activity, but you can do it.

    Although you can bet that the Germans and the US are both taking extremely thorough notes about the process.

    V1m on
  • honoverehonovere Registered User regular
    Label wrote: »
    If I recall correctly, I believe the current theory for Ukraine's air shootdowns is they're rushing Patriot systems up to forward positions, and using them to 'ambush' Russian air forces in the rear with the suddenly extended range.

    I believe it's the german patriot systems that are considered mobile enough to do it. Not designed for it, so it's sort of an off-label activity, but you can do it.

    What's the difference between German and US patriot systems?

  • Inquisitor77Inquisitor77 2 x Penny Arcade Fight Club Champion A fixed point in space and timeRegistered User regular
    honovere wrote: »
    Label wrote: »
    If I recall correctly, I believe the current theory for Ukraine's air shootdowns is they're rushing Patriot systems up to forward positions, and using them to 'ambush' Russian air forces in the rear with the suddenly extended range.

    I believe it's the german patriot systems that are considered mobile enough to do it. Not designed for it, so it's sort of an off-label activity, but you can do it.

    What's the difference between German and US patriot systems?

    One is really expensive and works very well but you have to pay up the wazoo to fix basic things like the automatic windows. The other is overpriced and oversized but is very comfortable to ride and also has giant cup holders.

  • [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular
    honovere wrote: »
    Label wrote: »
    If I recall correctly, I believe the current theory for Ukraine's air shootdowns is they're rushing Patriot systems up to forward positions, and using them to 'ambush' Russian air forces in the rear with the suddenly extended range.

    I believe it's the german patriot systems that are considered mobile enough to do it. Not designed for it, so it's sort of an off-label activity, but you can do it.

    What's the difference between German and US patriot systems?

    One has American flags all over it, the other has no flags at all.

    Sic transit gloria mundi.
  • Alistair HuttonAlistair Hutton Dr EdinburghRegistered User regular
    The a50 was outside of Patriot range even if they'd ran the battery right up to the front lines. Genuinely looks like friendly fire.

    I have a thoughtful and infrequently updated blog about games http://whatithinkaboutwhenithinkaboutgames.wordpress.com/

    I made a game, it has penguins in it. It's pay what you like on Gumroad.

    Currently Ebaying Nothing at all but I might do in the future.
  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    honovere wrote: »
    Label wrote: »
    If I recall correctly, I believe the current theory for Ukraine's air shootdowns is they're rushing Patriot systems up to forward positions, and using them to 'ambush' Russian air forces in the rear with the suddenly extended range.

    I believe it's the german patriot systems that are considered mobile enough to do it. Not designed for it, so it's sort of an off-label activity, but you can do it.

    What's the difference between German and US patriot systems?

    One has American flags all over it, the other has no flags at all.

    WE DO NOT TALK ABOUT THE NO FLAGS!
    Cause, you know, the last time German vehicles were blowing Russian shit up in Ukraine...

  • CrazyPCrazyP Registered User regular


    From Kevin Rothrock at Meduza:
    State investigators have reportedly given Navalny's mother an ultimatum: agree within the next three hours to a private burial for her son without a public funeral, or they'll bury him in secret without her. She's refused and demands the return of Navalny's body.

    They were never going to allow her to have custody of the body, because that might allow an independent autopsy. I can't imagine this turning out the way Putin wants it. No matter what public outpouring of support Nalvany's funeral might have received, it couldn't have been less than what will come as a result of this... and now it's not going to have a single focal location they can monitor. Also, fuck Putin.

    You think this is bad? Today we have AI generated (bad) deep fake of Navlny mother spread around by Russian propagandists. Deep fake proclaimed its hate for Navalny widow Yulia, who is trying to continue his fight, accuses her of child abuse, cheating, stealing Alexei money and property and demands that she "stopped using her sons name". Voice is barely similar to his actual mother, probably cause she was private person and only known voice sample to train AI was her video recording demanding Putin to release Alexei body. did not stopped propagandists sharing and spreading it. Disgustin
    Source: fact checking site
    https://provereno.media/blog/2024/02/23/pravdivo-li-obrashenie-materi-alekseya-navalnogo-s-obvineniyami-v-adres-ego-zheny//?tg_rhash=c6d5ff99015d6f

    Meanwhile Navalny mother had sent official demand for criminal investigation against detective holding Navalny body hostage for "desecrating the dead"
    Source: telegram of head of Anti-Corruption Foundation (Navalny created NGO)
    https://t.me/ioannZH/2583


    So remember five weeks ago, when Ukraine shot down one of Russia's ersatz AWACS over the sea of Azov?

    https://kyivindependent.com/russian-a50-plane-shot-down-over-azov-sea-military-says/
    The Ukrainian Air Force downed another Russian A-50 military aircraft over the Azov Sea, Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk reported on Feb. 23.

    There's video of the plane spitting out about 30 flares before exploding. I don't know how many of these Russia has in service, but I don't think it's a lot.

    And Z-bloggers are already claiming it to be a lie - the plane was shot down by friendly fire. Which makes it better how?
    Source: Russian milblogger
    https://t.me/milinfolive/116901
    honovere wrote: »
    I think Russia is going all out offense right now, leading up to the anniversary of the invasion.
    There's way more airstrikes near the front lately, as far as I can tell. So they're probably a lot less careful where and when they send jets with glide bombs and stuff instead of the usual handful of long range missiles and drones.

    Edit: also this was like 200 miles behind the front line? That's way outside the official range of patriot, right?

    Looks so, but I disagree about motive. March 15-17 - Russian "presidential elections". Murder of Navalny, another offensive attempt no matter how costly: Putin needs some "achievements" under his belt for such "glorious" occasion. Personally hope for complete disaster at the front at date.

    Родина вернись домой
  • Knuckle DraggerKnuckle Dragger Explosive Ovine Disposal Registered User regular
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »
    So remember five weeks ago, when Ukraine shot down one of Russia's ersatz AWACS over the sea of Azov?

    https://kyivindependent.com/russian-a50-plane-shot-down-over-azov-sea-military-says/
    The Ukrainian Air Force downed another Russian A-50 military aircraft over the Azov Sea, Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk reported on Feb. 23.

    There's video of the plane spitting out about 30 flares before exploding. I don't know how many of these Russia has in service, but I don't think it's a lot.

    They have - well, had - eight or so.

    Also there's some noises that the shootdown was actually over Russia proper, somewhere south of Rostov, which is ... way in the Russian rear compared to earlier shootdowns.

    Wonder if Ukraine got some new gear, or if Russian air defense is getting porous enough for aircraft to push that far forward to hit targets like that.

    From what I read, it was somewhere on the southeastern coast of the Azov Sea, so yeah, south of Rostov.

    Let not any one pacify his conscience by the delusion that he can do no harm if he takes no part, and forms no opinion.

    - John Stuart Mill
  • honoverehonovere Registered User regular
    Ukraine had been asking for Meteor missiles, I think. Maybe UK/France got them some. If I remember correctly, Stom shadow/scalp deliveries were also not public until they actually got used

  • ScooterScooter Registered User regular
    The thing that gets me about these radar planes being shot down by friendly fire (and it seems good odds that at least some of them have been)...aren't these planes supposed to be the ones designating the targets?

  • manwiththemachinegunmanwiththemachinegun METAL GEAR?! Registered User regular
    The standard Russian government lie of, No! We blew ourselves up! Like that is an improvement...

  • TynnanTynnan seldom correct, never unsure Registered User regular
    Ukrainian GUR sources indicate that the A-50 was shot down using a Ukrainian S-200 missile

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/23/7443442/

  • override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    step 1. take boat 2. put s-200 on boat, 3. drive boat out underneath a-50

  • Alistair HuttonAlistair Hutton Dr EdinburghRegistered User regular
    Tynnan wrote: »
    Ukrainian GUR sources indicate that the A-50 was shot down using a Ukrainian S-200 missile

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/23/7443442/

    That seems rather unlikely. S200s are basically emplaced, you aren't shooting and scooting. Even with their range they would be collar tuggingly close to the front lines.

    I have a thoughtful and infrequently updated blog about games http://whatithinkaboutwhenithinkaboutgames.wordpress.com/

    I made a game, it has penguins in it. It's pay what you like on Gumroad.

    Currently Ebaying Nothing at all but I might do in the future.
  • MillMill Registered User regular
    Pretty sure it was mentioned already, but I'll track down an article about it, current head of NATO has said that Ukraine is free to use it's Western provided arms to hit any relevant Russian military targets, this includes stuff in Russia proper. So if there is anything juicy in Russia, that is within range of Western provided arms and those are the best option for hitting. Well we might start to see a few things in Russia going up in flames here pretty soon.

    Also worth noting that some of the kit that Ukraine has received, is stuff where the manufacturers usually undersell the capabilities. So that probably gives Ukraine a bit more to work with than what is on paper, which also makes it easier to find innovative ways to get even more out of what they have. So in regards to something like range, it might be that a missile goes a touch further than what the advertisements say it's max range is, so if you need it to go an extra 50Km, well that gets easier if it ends up being that you only have to eek out another 41Km because it actually goes 9Km further than advertised. BTW I'm just throwing out a generic fictional missiles here, too lazy to look up what the actual range is on something like a patriot missile right now.

  • FiendishrabbitFiendishrabbit Registered User regular
    honovere wrote: »
    What's the difference between German and US patriot systems?

    Not certain, but there are two setups for the Patriot system.

    "Trucks+trailers" or "all mounted on separate trucks". The first option requires less people and fewer trucks to deploy since a truck can haul both a launcher and a radar trailer. The second option is a bit more mobile (not much) but definitely handles mud better.

    Not sure about the american systems, but the german ones all use separate trucks for launchers and radars.

    "The western world sips from a poisonous cocktail: Polarisation, populism, protectionism and post-truth"
    -Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
  • FiendishrabbitFiendishrabbit Registered User regular
    Tynnan wrote: »
    Ukrainian GUR sources indicate that the A-50 was shot down using a Ukrainian S-200 missile

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/23/7443442/

    That seems rather unlikely. S200s are basically emplaced, you aren't shooting and scooting. Even with their range they would be collar tuggingly close to the front lines.

    It is possible though.
    a. The rocket itself has the juice for it (being capable of hitting a high altitude target at 200km+ range. Possibly even 250km if Poland have been handing over their retired Vega upgrades or if Ukraine has refurbished their own).
    b. Once launched the ramp is of sufficiently low value that you can basically abandon it.

    "The western world sips from a poisonous cocktail: Polarisation, populism, protectionism and post-truth"
    -Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User, Moderator mod
    A-50s also have the advantage of being enormously bigger/brighter/otherwise-more-visible targets than the missiles or fighters that SAMs often engage, as well as being only slightly more maneuverable than the airfields they launch from when it comes to trying to evade something that wants to say hi to them. Both of those make the missile crew's job easier at extreme ranges.

  • SpectrumSpectrum Archer of Inferno Chaldea Rec RoomRegistered User regular
    2/23 Ukrainian milvlogging: tl;dw Discussion of the A-50 shootdown and conflicting narratives, immediate effect on the fighting near Avdiivka, as Ukrainian forces conduct a gradual withdrawal towards the next prepared defensive line

    XNnw6Gk.jpg
  • MillMill Registered User regular
    I'm inclined to believe that Ukraine did figure out how to jury-rig or straight up revamp S200s to pull off the feat. I mean hell, it's been joked that Ukraine has built a fair bit of Russia's stockpile, so safe to say they definitely had people that possessed the know how and skills to make it possible.

    Also nice to hear that Russia only has 7 A-50s remaining. Got to wonder how long potential wear and tear can eat into them or if they'll have to be downed to ensure that they can be used in the war effort. Pretty sure you can break the components of them into three distinct groups. Parts that Russia can easily get hold of if they need to be replaced. Parts that are difficult to replace because either it's something that can only be made in Russia, but is difficult to quickly manufacture or is a more common Western component that is now very difficult to get thanks to sanctions. Finally, parts that are irreplaceable, either as a result of it being Russian made only, but something that Russia can't make make anymore or at least make before the war ends and Western made components that are rare enough, that there just is no way to sneak them through sanctions.

    I think the video hinted at the critical parts of the A-50s being in that last final group. Hence, why Russia losing two A-50s is such a heavy blow. That said, even if Russia can't replace the the components, that doesn't mean those wear out at a quick rate. Really depends on how quickly wear and tear eats into those specific components. If they last a good long while, that maybe leave the option open for Russia just to make a new air frame and transplant stuff over, not sure if that would be an easy task or not.

    Granted, the other question that has to be asked, is how comfortable does Russia feel about potentially committing all their A-50s to the conflict in Ukraine. They currently only have 7 left and with NATO removing the big restriction of sticking with using Western arms in Ukraine proper (both unoccupied and occupied territory), it probably got much more feasible for Ukraine to bag itself another A-50 or at least make Russia strongly consider monitoring its airspace elsewhere. Also Russia could have other nations it's concerned about, that results in Russia feeling like it can't send some of those A-50s to monitor things in Ukraine.

  • MechMantisMechMantis Registered User regular
    Two fucking years of this shit. I still remember the fucking horror I felt at work reading about this-- somehow I managed to keep my composure that night.

    And now Ukraine's getting pushed back because of the West's collective apathy and the work of Putin's cadre of sycophants and wannabes.


    gah.

    Russia needs to get smacked down, and hard, ideally sooner rather than fucking later.

  • V1mV1m Registered User regular
    MechMantis wrote: »
    Two fucking years of this shit. I still remember the fucking horror I felt at work reading about this-- somehow I managed to keep my composure that night.

    And now Ukraine's getting pushed back because of the West's collective apathy and the work of Putin's cadre of sycophants and wannabes.


    gah.

    Russia needs to get smacked down, and hard, ideally sooner rather than fucking later.

    They are. This war is doing to Russia what WW1 did to Germany. What we're mad about is that Ukraine are paying almost the whole cost of it.

  • R-demR-dem Registered User regular
    Had an elder Bosnian couple for neighbors when I lived in SLC. Learned some Bosnian and spent some good times having coffee with them. They were refugees from the war, naturally, and were a mixed marriage (there, that means one is Muslim and the other Orthodox). Absolutely loved them. They were the kindest, sweetest neighbors I’ve ever had.

    “Serbia” was absolutely a forbidden word.

  • GaddezGaddez Registered User regular
    edited February 24
    MechMantis wrote: »
    Two fucking years of this shit. I still remember the fucking horror I felt at work reading about this-- somehow I managed to keep my composure that night.

    And now Ukraine's getting pushed back because of the West's collective apathy and the work of Putin's cadre of sycophants and wannabes.


    gah.

    Russia needs to get smacked down, and hard, ideally sooner rather than fucking later.

    See, I disagree; it isn't apathy holding back support but rather opportunistic spite.

    Gaddez on
  • V1mV1m Registered User regular
    edited February 24
    It's support for Putin that doesn't quite dare say it out loud yet, by people who admire Putin for what he is, wishes that they could do what he's doing, and will turn their country into something as much like current day Russia if they ever get the chance.

    V1m on
  • MechMantisMechMantis Registered User regular
    Gaddez wrote: »
    MechMantis wrote: »
    Two fucking years of this shit. I still remember the fucking horror I felt at work reading about this-- somehow I managed to keep my composure that night.

    And now Ukraine's getting pushed back because of the West's collective apathy and the work of Putin's cadre of sycophants and wannabes.


    gah.

    Russia needs to get smacked down, and hard, ideally sooner rather than fucking later.

    See, I disagree; it isn't apathy holding back support but rather opportunistic spite.

    You aren't fuckin wrong.



    But, at the same time, I've been playing Monster Hunter with The Volunteer off and on, and even though she's thoroughly demoralized by the West's inability to get it's fucking act together, she's at least fucking alive. The IT Specialist as well is still doing okay out in Lviv, and The Engineer continues to work on things that I can't really talk about.

    Which is better than I could have ever have guessed watching this unfold that night.

  • Knuckle DraggerKnuckle Dragger Explosive Ovine Disposal Registered User regular
    They actually released Navalny’s body to his family.

    https://meduza.io/en/news/2024/02/24/russian-officials-release-alexey-navalny-s-body-to-his-mother
    Alexey Navalny’s body has been released to his mother, Lyudmila, reports Navalny’s press secretary Kira Yarmysh.

    “Alexey’s body was handed over to his mother. Many thanks to all those who demanded this with us,” said Yarmysh in a post on X (formerly Twitter). “Lyudmila Ivanovna is still in Salekhard. The funeral is still pending. We do not know if the authorities will interfere to carry it out as the family wants and as Alexey deserves. We will inform you as soon as there is news.”

    Let not any one pacify his conscience by the delusion that he can do no harm if he takes no part, and forms no opinion.

    - John Stuart Mill
  • SmrtnikSmrtnik job boli zub Registered User regular
    They actually released Navalny’s body to his family.

    https://meduza.io/en/news/2024/02/24/russian-officials-release-alexey-navalny-s-body-to-his-mother
    Alexey Navalny’s body has been released to his mother, Lyudmila, reports Navalny’s press secretary Kira Yarmysh.

    “Alexey’s body was handed over to his mother. Many thanks to all those who demanded this with us,” said Yarmysh in a post on X (formerly Twitter). “Lyudmila Ivanovna is still in Salekhard. The funeral is still pending. We do not know if the authorities will interfere to carry it out as the family wants and as Alexey deserves. We will inform you as soon as there is news.”

    Hope they get the Andor finale.

    steam_sig.png
  • [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular
    V1m wrote: »
    MechMantis wrote: »
    Two fucking years of this shit. I still remember the fucking horror I felt at work reading about this-- somehow I managed to keep my composure that night.

    And now Ukraine's getting pushed back because of the West's collective apathy and the work of Putin's cadre of sycophants and wannabes.


    gah.

    Russia needs to get smacked down, and hard, ideally sooner rather than fucking later.

    They are. This war is doing to Russia what WW1 did to Germany. What we're mad about is that Ukraine are paying almost the whole cost of it.

    Norwegian top brass had a press conference on long-term strategic outlook (from a Norwegian perspective) a week or so ago. Their assessment is that Russia will be ready to invade another country in about 5 years.

    Even if they're wrong and you're right, Germany started WW2 20 years after WW1, so I don't find that a particularly uplifting comparison.

    Sic transit gloria mundi.
  • SpectrumSpectrum Archer of Inferno Chaldea Rec RoomRegistered User regular
    V1m wrote: »
    It's support for Putin that doesn't quite dare say it out loud yet, by people who admire Putin for what he is, wishes that they could do what he's doing, and will turn their country isn't something as much like current day Russia if they ever get the chance.
    You also have to credit Russia for spending the past X years turning people into assets, funneling money into certain politicians or parties, and getting kompromat on them in various ways including hacking their computers and not releasing any data from that.

    It's enemy action all the way down, not apathy.

    XNnw6Gk.jpg
  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User, Moderator mod
    V1m wrote: »
    MechMantis wrote: »
    Two fucking years of this shit. I still remember the fucking horror I felt at work reading about this-- somehow I managed to keep my composure that night.

    And now Ukraine's getting pushed back because of the West's collective apathy and the work of Putin's cadre of sycophants and wannabes.


    gah.

    Russia needs to get smacked down, and hard, ideally sooner rather than fucking later.

    They are. This war is doing to Russia what WW1 did to Germany. What we're mad about is that Ukraine are paying almost the whole cost of it.

    Norwegian top brass had a press conference on long-term strategic outlook (from a Norwegian perspective) a week or so ago. Their assessment is that Russia will be ready to invade another country in about 5 years.

    Even if they're wrong and you're right, Germany started WW2 20 years after WW1, so I don't find that a particularly uplifting comparison.

    The next one will probably be one or more of the Baltic states too, going by the frequency Russia's poking at Estonia right now, so if Putin's still breathing by then that will certainly be just delightful...

  • ScooterScooter Registered User regular
    edited February 24
    I assume that estimate assumes that A) Russia stops the war in Ukraine tomorrow, and B ) finds a target that's significantly weaker and more alone than Ukraine was.

    If the current war continues, Russia's not going to have any hardware left in 2 years, let alone 5.

    Scooter on
  • V1mV1m Registered User regular
    That's how I read it also. The five year timer starts from when there is a significant slowdown to the fighting in Ukraine, so that it's only consuming maybe 5-20% of the military output of Russian, rather than ~150-200%.

    Even if Ukraine regain most/all of their territory and force a ceasefire, it's extremely predictable that the likes of Putin will seek to pick a fight ASAP with a smaller, weaker nation to try and restore some prestige. Probably Georgia.

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