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[MENA] Nope, the news is still all bad.

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  • TicaldfjamTicaldfjam Snoqualmie, WARegistered User regular
    edited October 1
    Here's hoping Dimona remains quiet, cause at this point it wouldn't surprise me if Bibi decided amimut is just too 20th century.

    Meanwhile, The House of Saud is all giddy as fuck.

    Be ashamed if something bad happen to Mecca, the falsifiers of Islam, like Bin-Laden said of them.

    Ticaldfjam on
  • ApogeeApogee Lancks In Every Game Ever Registered User regular
    Judging by all the videos of dozens of missiles impacting Tel Aviv, I'd say this is going to get worse before it gets better.

    I can't imagine a better way for Iran to gurantee Bibi stays in power than giving him a great casus belli against Iran.

  • I needed anime to post.I needed anime to post. boom Registered User regular
    Masterful de-escalation Bibi. Here's another billion dollars.

    liEt3nH.png
  • No-QuarterNo-Quarter Nothing To Fear But Fear ItselfRegistered User regular
    Haaretz is saying the OK has been given to leave the shelters. It's over for now.

  • taliosfalcontaliosfalcon Registered User regular
    edited October 1
    I've only seen videos/pictures of missiles bypassing tel Aviv and hitting (presumably) military targets near it so far. I've honestly been somewhat impressed by Iran's holding back as it seems like they could have hit the most populated parts of tel Aviv easily and chose not to.
    Disclaimer: this could all change at any second as the attacks are ongoing

    taliosfalcon on
    steam xbox - adeptpenguin
  • syndalissyndalis Getting Classy On the WallRegistered User, Loves Apple Products regular
    No-Quarter wrote: »
    Haaretz is saying the OK has been given to leave the shelters. It's over for now.

    Iran did say that there would not be more so long as Israel doesn't retaliate.

    So, uhh... over/under on that?

    SW-4158-3990-6116
    Let's play Mario Kart or something...
  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    Apogee wrote: »
    Judging by all the videos of dozens of missiles impacting Tel Aviv, I'd say this is going to get worse before it gets better.

    I can't imagine a better way for Iran to gurantee Bibi stays in power than giving him a great casus belli against Iran.

    To a great extent what else can they really do though? There are two factions in Iran, the conservatives whose client groups are being eaten, and the pro-west reformers, who just won a big election and can’t really politically be seen as giving in.

    Part of brinksmanship is always giving your opponent outs where they can back down while saving face. Iran right now is in a situation where both major factions’ options are basically “credibly respond or commit political suicide”.

  • ApogeeApogee Lancks In Every Game Ever Registered User regular
    edited October 1
    The amount of video footage of incoming missiles is wild. Example here and here.

    Interesting, there have also been videos posted from Iran of the missile launches taking place. I don't think I've seen simultaneous postings of missile launches/impacts before.

    I don't think there has been any confirmation of who/what was hit yet, although I saw one brief clip that appeared to be a missile impacting downtown intersection in Tel Aviv. Nope, disinfo, it was something from Ukraine apparently.

    I guess we need to wait for official commentary, or a whole lot of social media clips, before we will know.

    Apogee on
  • No-QuarterNo-Quarter Nothing To Fear But Fear ItselfRegistered User regular
    syndalis wrote: »
    No-Quarter wrote: »
    Haaretz is saying the OK has been given to leave the shelters. It's over for now.

    Iran did say that there would not be more so long as Israel doesn't retaliate.

    So, uhh... over/under on that?

    How much of this shit do the Iranians even have?

  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    Are the impacts confirmed or are those intercepted missile fragments

  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    edited October 1
    No-Quarter wrote: »
    syndalis wrote: »
    No-Quarter wrote: »
    Haaretz is saying the OK has been given to leave the shelters. It's over for now.

    Iran did say that there would not be more so long as Israel doesn't retaliate.

    So, uhh... over/under on that?

    How much of this shit do the Iranians even have?

    Considering they have been supplying Russia with drones and missiles probably a pretty good amount. A lot more than a couple of days worth at least.

    Jealous Deva on
  • taliosfalcontaliosfalcon Registered User regular
    No-Quarter wrote: »
    syndalis wrote: »
    No-Quarter wrote: »
    Haaretz is saying the OK has been given to leave the shelters. It's over for now.

    Iran did say that there would not be more so long as Israel doesn't retaliate.

    So, uhh... over/under on that?

    How much of this shit do the Iranians even have?

    Probably a lot https://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/irans-ballistic-missile-program

    steam xbox - adeptpenguin
  • BlackDragon480BlackDragon480 Bluster Kerfuffle Master of Windy ImportRegistered User regular
    I've only seen videos/pictures of missiles bypassing tel Aviv and hitting (presumably) military targets near it so far. I've honestly been somewhat impressed by Iran's holding back as it seems like they could have hit the most populated parts of tel Aviv easily and chose not to.
    Disclaimer: this could all change at any second as the attacks are ongoing

    Self preservation instincts, they know there's no carrier group giving them carte blanche cover to be as ethically bankrupt as they want when conducting operations, so I see Iran being as judicious and careful as they can, cause if they push the envelop too much Israel or their other fellow school yard bully will go Alexander in Persepolis on their ass.

    No matter where you go...there you are.
    ~ Buckaroo Banzai
  • neverreallyneverreally Registered User regular
    I've only seen videos/pictures of missiles bypassing tel Aviv and hitting (presumably) military targets near it so far. I've honestly been somewhat impressed by Iran's holding back as it seems like they could have hit the most populated parts of tel Aviv easily and chose not to.
    Disclaimer: this could all change at any second as the attacks are ongoing

    Self preservation instincts, they know there's no carrier group giving them carte blanche cover to be as ethically bankrupt as they want when conducting operations, so I see Iran being as judicious and careful as they can, cause if they push the envelop too much Israel or their other fellow school yard bully will go Alexander in Persepolis on their ass.

    I'm not sure Iran is even capable of hitting targets in Israel right now. I don't think this was restraint. I think they've failed twice now and are looking exceptionally weak in the eyes of their supporters.

  • zagdrobzagdrob Registered User regular
    I've only seen videos/pictures of missiles bypassing tel Aviv and hitting (presumably) military targets near it so far. I've honestly been somewhat impressed by Iran's holding back as it seems like they could have hit the most populated parts of tel Aviv easily and chose not to.
    Disclaimer: this could all change at any second as the attacks are ongoing

    Self preservation instincts, they know there's no carrier group giving them carte blanche cover to be as ethically bankrupt as they want when conducting operations, so I see Iran being as judicious and careful as they can, cause if they push the envelop too much Israel or their other fellow school yard bully will go Alexander in Persepolis on their ass.

    I would definitely wait until the smoke literally clears before going and handing it to Iran for all of their restraint in their attacks.

  • kaidkaid Registered User regular
    No-Quarter wrote: »
    Haaretz is saying the OK has been given to leave the shelters. It's over for now.

    Hopefully it was just a face saving gesture from Iran and then they wash their hands of it.

  • BlackDragon480BlackDragon480 Bluster Kerfuffle Master of Windy ImportRegistered User regular
    edited October 1
    zagdrob wrote: »
    I've only seen videos/pictures of missiles bypassing tel Aviv and hitting (presumably) military targets near it so far. I've honestly been somewhat impressed by Iran's holding back as it seems like they could have hit the most populated parts of tel Aviv easily and chose not to.
    Disclaimer: this could all change at any second as the attacks are ongoing

    Self preservation instincts, they know there's no carrier group giving them carte blanche cover to be as ethically bankrupt as they want when conducting operations, so I see Iran being as judicious and careful as they can, cause if they push the envelop too much Israel or their other fellow school yard bully will go Alexander in Persepolis on their ass.

    I would definitely wait until the smoke literally clears before going and handing it to Iran for all of their restraint in their attacks.

    I'm not handing them shit, as the Republican Guard is just as nasty in its own ways as the IDF or their immediate predecessors SAVAK, but through both a lack of capability and a need to not provoke an overwhelming response, I think we're far less likely to see entire apartment blocks being razed on purpose to get at one or two targets from commanders in Tehran.

    BlackDragon480 on
    No matter where you go...there you are.
    ~ Buckaroo Banzai
  • neverreallyneverreally Registered User regular
    I think the more ineffectual Iran appears to be, and the more invincible the people of Israel feel, the more likely Israel is gonna strike Iran much harder, in an attempt to take out their leadership. And why not? Iran appears incapable of doing actual damage, yet still continually attacks them.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    edited October 1
    Crazily while all this was happening there was also what seems to be a shooting spree or attack or something in Tel Aviv:
    Four people were killed and seven wounded in a shooting attack in the Jaffa neighbourhood of Tel Aviv on Tuesday, Israeli police said in a statement.
    They said the two shooters had been "neutralized" and the situation was "under control." The families of the victims had been notified.

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/four-killed-in-shooting-in-israel-s-jaffa-two-attackers-neutralized-israeli-police-say-1.7057898
    (warning: link is a video because no one has a good text write-up yet)

    No clue yet on whether this was a terrorist attack or if the timing was random or what else.

    shryke on
  • IncenjucarIncenjucar VChatter Seattle, WARegistered User regular
    edited October 1
    I think the more ineffectual Iran appears to be, and the more invincible the people of Israel feel, the more likely Israel is gonna strike Iran much harder, in an attempt to take out their leadership. And why not? Iran appears incapable of doing actual damage, yet still continually attacks them.

    Countries like Israel are why all the other countries want nukes.

    Incenjucar on
  • GiantGeek2020GiantGeek2020 Registered User regular
    Incenjucar wrote: »
    I think the more ineffectual Iran appears to be, and the more invincible the people of Israel feel, the more likely Israel is gonna strike Iran much harder, in an attempt to take out their leadership. And why not? Iran appears incapable of doing actual damage, yet still continually attacks them.

    Countries like Israel are why all the other countries want nukes.

    And Russia. Ukraine probably wishes they had a few nukes right now.

    Taiwan and Vietnam and the Philippines probably wish they had nukes to prevent China from being so pushy over the 9 dash line.

    And the US. Plenty of countries would like to have nukes so they can be on our "do not bother" list.

    Let's face it. Being in the nuke club means you can't be bullied and due to the irresponsible behavior of all of the above, it's just getting smarter and smarter to want to be inside the club.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    I think the more ineffectual Iran appears to be, and the more invincible the people of Israel feel, the more likely Israel is gonna strike Iran much harder, in an attempt to take out their leadership. And why not? Iran appears incapable of doing actual damage, yet still continually attacks them.

    The problem is that it also works the other way. The more effective Iran is at striking Israel, the more it encourages a larger scale response to degrade their capabilities or scare them off.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Incenjucar wrote: »
    I think the more ineffectual Iran appears to be, and the more invincible the people of Israel feel, the more likely Israel is gonna strike Iran much harder, in an attempt to take out their leadership. And why not? Iran appears incapable of doing actual damage, yet still continually attacks them.

    Countries like Israel are why all the other countries want nukes.

    And Russia. Ukraine probably wishes they had a few nukes right now.

    Taiwan and Vietnam and the Philippines probably wish they had nukes to prevent China from being so pushy over the 9 dash line.

    And the US. Plenty of countries would like to have nukes so they can be on our "do not bother" list.

    Let's face it. Being in the nuke club means you can't be bullied and due to the irresponsible behavior of all of the above, it's just getting smarter and smarter to want to be inside the club.

    It also means you can be a bigger bully. Look at Russia in Ukraine and the lack of a harder response.

  • honoverehonovere Registered User regular
    Iran claims to have destroyed the Nevatim airbase, 20+ f35 jets, several tanks.

    Might all be posturing for domestic consumption.

    Also there's a video of like a dozen Israeli civilians more or less playing around with a several meter long faring of a ballistic missile. Which seems I'll advised

  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    I think the more ineffectual Iran appears to be, and the more invincible the people of Israel feel, the more likely Israel is gonna strike Iran much harder, in an attempt to take out their leadership. And why not? Iran appears incapable of doing actual damage, yet still continually attacks them.

    The problem is that it also works the other way. The more effective Iran is at striking Israel, the more it encourages a larger scale response to degrade their capabilities or scare them off.

    I think Israel is provably not the primary concern of Iran, I think they are interested in working within limitations that will not cause a US response, which means no or a very small number of fatalities, and their strikes are being tailored to fit within that boundary. Possibly within context of communications with the US itself.

  • A Half Eaten OreoA Half Eaten Oreo Registered User regular
    Seems like the Navy had destroyers shooting down missiles. I assume Iran expected the US to shield Israel as best they could.

  • KarozKaroz Registered User regular
    Incenjucar wrote: »
    I think the more ineffectual Iran appears to be, and the more invincible the people of Israel feel, the more likely Israel is gonna strike Iran much harder, in an attempt to take out their leadership. And why not? Iran appears incapable of doing actual damage, yet still continually attacks them.

    Countries like Israel are why all the other countries want nukes.

    And Russia. Ukraine probably wishes they had a few nukes right now.

    Taiwan and Vietnam and the Philippines probably wish they had nukes to prevent China from being so pushy over the 9 dash line.

    And the US. Plenty of countries would like to have nukes so they can be on our "do not bother" list.

    Let's face it. Being in the nuke club means you can't be bullied and due to the irresponsible behavior of all of the above, it's just getting smarter and smarter to want to be inside the club.

    IIRC Libya giving away its nukes also opened it to being bullied during its civil war so a renewed warning that once you have nukes never give them up.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    I think the more ineffectual Iran appears to be, and the more invincible the people of Israel feel, the more likely Israel is gonna strike Iran much harder, in an attempt to take out their leadership. And why not? Iran appears incapable of doing actual damage, yet still continually attacks them.

    The problem is that it also works the other way. The more effective Iran is at striking Israel, the more it encourages a larger scale response to degrade their capabilities or scare them off.

    I think Israel is provably not the primary concern of Iran, I think they are interested in working within limitations that will not cause a US response, which means no or a very small number of fatalities, and their strikes are being tailored to fit within that boundary. Possibly within context of communications with the US itself.

    Provably how? I think Israel is definitely the primary concern of Iran. They are far more willing to directly strike Iran. Or basically anyone in the region. This last year has been a pretty obvious demonstration of that.

    Iran is interested in being seen to do something with provoking too much of a response. Their response this time also seems like it was larger then the last. It seems like they want to send a stronger message then before about Israel going after Hezbollah. And we don't know if they could go further with another attack after this.

    I think there's still a question of what provoked Iran to respond this time in a way that so far seems like it's an escalation from their previous response. And when that decision was made.

  • No-QuarterNo-Quarter Nothing To Fear But Fear ItselfRegistered User regular
    Iraq and Ukraine are the true harbingers of "no nukes? Good luck."

  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    edited October 1
    shryke wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    I think the more ineffectual Iran appears to be, and the more invincible the people of Israel feel, the more likely Israel is gonna strike Iran much harder, in an attempt to take out their leadership. And why not? Iran appears incapable of doing actual damage, yet still continually attacks them.

    The problem is that it also works the other way. The more effective Iran is at striking Israel, the more it encourages a larger scale response to degrade their capabilities or scare them off.

    I think Israel is provably not the primary concern of Iran, I think they are interested in working within limitations that will not cause a US response, which means no or a very small number of fatalities, and their strikes are being tailored to fit within that boundary. Possibly within context of communications with the US itself.

    Provably how? I think Israel is definitely the primary concern of Iran. They are far more willing to directly strike Iran. Or basically anyone in the region. This last year has been a pretty obvious demonstration of that.

    Iran is interested in being seen to do something with provoking too much of a response. Their response this time also seems like it was larger then the last. It seems like they want to send a stronger message then before about Israel going after Hezbollah. And we don't know if they could go further with another attack after this.

    I think there's still a question of what provoked Iran to respond this time in a way that so far seems like it's an escalation from their previous response. And when that decision was made.

    Sorry my phone autocorrected something that was supposed to be probably.

    But I am not sure Israel has the long range capability to threaten Iran as significantly as Gaza or Lebanon. Remember Iran is a huge country with 90 million people, bombing it to a point it does significant damage is orders of magnitude more difficult even without the distance problems.

    Jealous Deva on
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    No-Quarter wrote: »
    Iraq and Ukraine are the true harbingers of "no nukes? Good luck."

    Don't forget Georgia.

    They were the first real sign of Russia's "I've got nukes, how are you gonna stop me?" present.

  • LanzLanz ...Za?Registered User regular
    Times of Israel reporter:


    MDA says that only two people were lightly wounded by shrapnel in Tel Aviv amid the Iranian missile attack on the country.

    Several others were treated for minor injuries after falling over while running or for acute anxiety, MDA adds.

  • DarkPrimusDarkPrimus Registered User regular
    There's a question of what provoked Iran?

    Not if you're paying attention and saw that Israel is moving ground forces into Lebanon.

  • zagdrobzagdrob Registered User regular
    honovere wrote: »
    Iran claims to have destroyed the Nevatim airbase, 20+ f35 jets, several tanks.

    Might all be posturing for domestic consumption.

    Also there's a video of like a dozen Israeli civilians more or less playing around with a several meter long faring of a ballistic missile. Which seems I'll advised

    Those claims seem pretty...let's say, optimistic with what we know about Iran's capabilities and Israel's hardening of their airstrips. Especially if the other information about light to no casualties from the attack is accurate.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    edited October 1
    DarkPrimus wrote: »
    There's a question of what provoked Iran?

    Not if you're paying attention and saw that Israel is moving ground forces into Lebanon.

    There's a question of what provoked Iran to respond at this time in this way and not earlier or not at all or with a different kind of response and so on.

    If you've been paying any attention you'd know there's been a lot of things that could merit a response and different things Iran could have (and has previously) chosen.

    shryke on
  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. normal (not weird)Registered User regular
    edited October 1
    They're invading Lebanon. Seems pretty clear.

    You don't steal territory from Lebanon for your insane settler population with cruise missiles.

    Styrofoam Sammich on
    wq09t4opzrlc.jpg
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    They're invading Lebanon. Seems pretty clear.

    They also blew up Nasrallah. Iran is pretty pissed about that too. Or, at least, has to be seen to respond.

  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. normal (not weird)Registered User regular
    Makes perfect sense that a land invasion would see more of a response than an assassination.

    wq09t4opzrlc.jpg
  • ApogeeApogee Lancks In Every Game Ever Registered User regular
    Does Iran's government actually care if Lebanon is invaded, or even occupied? Their support for the various groups that counter Israeli interests seems more in line with opposing Israel, not supporting Lebanon. They don't have much to gain by throwing their lot in with Hezbollah, and a lot to lose. Israel can throw a lot more shit their way than Iran can to Israel, and that's not counting any US support. That said, with the distance between the countries, neither is invading the other without some really big escalation, and alot of help from someone with a big expeditionary army, i.e. the US.

    I fully expect the end result to be Iran saying 'so long, good luck' to Hezbollah, unless ideology trumps practicality. Which it does suprisingly often these days.

  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    zagdrob wrote: »
    honovere wrote: »
    Iran claims to have destroyed the Nevatim airbase, 20+ f35 jets, several tanks.

    Might all be posturing for domestic consumption.

    Also there's a video of like a dozen Israeli civilians more or less playing around with a several meter long faring of a ballistic missile. Which seems I'll advised

    Those claims seem pretty...let's say, optimistic with what we know about Iran's capabilities and Israel's hardening of their airstrips. Especially if the other information about light to no casualties from the attack is accurate.

    Probably greatly exaggerated. They did hit Nevatim last time and caused minor damage, so it may be something they focused on more, but it would also be odd for Israel to be unprepared, since again, it did get hit last time.

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