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2024 US [Election] Thread: Election Day is this week
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And I think a woman in this moment energizes women voters.
I do think somehow Democrat strategists decided going after trump for being a felon wasn’t a wining argument and that bums me the fuck out. Prosecutor vs felon seemed like an easy win?
But honestly the only “I think they would’ve won this thing easily” person imo is Michelle Obama
Or Barack in a world where he can run again,
To me he still doesn't have charisma or an exciting plan that is going to get people motivated to go out and vote.
{Twitter, Everybody's doing it. }{Writing and Story Blog}
If we’re lucky they choke to death on it
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/28/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/aarp-survey-00185978
27>21. Harris went up to 59 from 51.
However overall (men and women of all age groups) she's at 73%. Biden got 90. But she's up 10 in the last month.
I don’t think even Biden would’ve gotten 90 again, fundamentally he got a lot of wind in his sails from running against an incumbent trump who had so thoroughly fucked the country with covid and so the threat and stakes were much more vivid in voters minds . I think a lot of that missing percent will still break for Harris, definitely not 90, but I would be shocked if the actual vote number comes to anything less than 75-80%
75-80 would lose a lot of votes from the 2020 margins.
I misread that I thought it was black men only. I definitely think she’ll get closer to 90 on the day, especially with higher black women turn out. I know early voting is reading the entrails, but it’s positive in that area
I do think we’ll lose margins in some areas but gain them in others, I mean I hope we do. If not then yeah we’re fucked
Also is that comparing polls to actual turnout? Or polls now to polls from before the 2020 election?
The Invisible Civil War: A Polarized Mobile Electorate
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/30/upshot/voters-moving-polarization.html
TL;DR: - Americans are choosing to move to places that already support their politics in astonishing numbers across both parties (but especially Republicans).
Findings of note:
- Conservatives are moving into empty and undeveloped states like Wyoming and the Dakotas by ratios as high as 8:1, with lower but still highly disparate numbers in the more impoverished Southern states
- Except for Georgia, where liberals are drawn to the diversity and abundance of white-collar jobs
- The state with the greatest exodus of conservatives was, unsurprisingly, California, with them sending their disgruntled republicans to states like Arizona, Texas, and Florida.
- If Harris loses Arizona, it may simply be on numbers. Since the last election, more republicans have moved into the state than Biden’s margin of victory in 2020.
- The West Coast, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast are all becoming more blue. The Mountains, the lower Midwest, and the South are turning redder.
https://eriecountypa.gov/concerning-erie-county-mail-ballots/
Polls now to actual turnout, so a bit...wibbly. (2022 was also about ~92% Dem for the Black vote. If the Republicans were somewhat less racist we'd be fuuuuuuuuucked instead of maybe fucked)
His “One Neat Trick” is never running scared from what the right might say, but Harris going on Fox News shows she has no problem doing that either.
Is the Harris campaign messaging actually lands and a decade from now we have reduced our shared hatred of each other from a rolling boil down to a simmer, maybe he would have a chance then.
Let's play Mario Kart or something...
And even if the Harris campaign isn't perfect, I have no idea what they could be doing better given that Trump has gone full mask off Nazi and 40%+ of the voters just don't care, or worse, think it's awesome.
listening to call in shows in the US, a lot of people just aren't aware of the shit Trump says or does.
The media landscape is incredibly curated; you land in an echo chamber and the bad press will never reach your eyes.
This isn't something that Harris' campaign can fix, imo.
The Americans have utterly fucked their education and information systems, this is going to be a problem for a while.
If pressed they will probably know Trump will do to the press what all his buddies (Putin etc.) do to the press. Knowledge != beliefs.
But I'm willing to bet that apart from the MBA type managers, most people working in the press (journalist and other) will be highly educated liberals that think they should not impose their own bias on what they think their biased reader/viewership wants.
And their MBA type managers tell them that the bias should be a lot to the right.
(I base that partially on research in my home country of Belgium)
It does take a bit of a twist though - she starts getting really into heavy metal, and her channel blows up, so she starts being able to do interviews with some of the singers. And she realises that there's a lack of science behind techniques to produce alternative vocal styles - there's a body of research behind traditional opera singing, and some of the more exotic vocal techniques like Nepalese throat singing, but virtually nothing behind the various growls and vocal fry of heavy metal singing. Pretty much everything "known" is based on hypothesis and educated guesses, rather than empirical study.
So she's teaming up with a university and some heavy metal singers to produce some of the first ever peer reviewed studies of what's actually going on in the vocal tracts when they do their growls.
Feel free to support her vocal research!
To keep it more topical, here's her reaction to John Farnham's You're the Voice.
Edit - swapped out the kickstarter video for the research background one. Grabbed the wrong one first time.
That's a way she could be better on policy. Ignoring the gruesome human toll for the moment, as far as winning the campaign goes, with the crapsack state of polling there is zero way to tell if having a different position on Israel would gain Harris more votes than it loses, and where those votes would be. The candidates couldn't be more different and the stakes couldn't be higher, yet it's still an incredibly tight race, at least as far as anyone can figure, so the idea that 'this one policy change' would definitely shift the EC needle for Harris is just crazy talk; because those voters are fundamentally irrational. Its one group of people who were around for Trump's Muslim ban in his first term, and going 'yeah, but Gaza', and balancing them against another group of irrational voters (who definitely exist) who will be thinking 'yeah, he defended the whole "Jews will not replace us." march, but Israel. There ain't no magic policy path that's going to guarantee victory here.
Yeah, had the democratic party picked Manchin, thank god he didn't have a chance in hell. It's guaranteed that the GOP would be screaming about him being the most radical liberal candidate that ever libbed. It's gotten to the point that when prominent republicans word vomit out communist, liberal, progressive and socialist, they've effectively said nothing because those fuckers don't really understand what those words mean.
It's tighter than it has any damn right to be. I'd love to be wrong, but 2016 and 2020 were tight, and there's nothing out there indicating that this year is going to be a Harris blowout.
Have to play for keeps anyways, but things are looking grim over there.
EDIT: And Charlie Kirk, the man co-running Trump's GOTV effort with Elon, had this to say:
https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1851717440998453751
lol. LOL. lmao.
These mother fuckers would 100 percent be burning witches if they could
Yeah I think this is more true than we realize. I am friends with a lot of Republicans and religious folks who post about Trump. And it is always about shit like unity and love and wtf how is this possible? I guess you can edit down all the shit he says and make it sound good in a sound bite. And when I post the full speech or whatever they don't watch it.
God help us if we elect this literal clown.
For some reason I get Charlie Kirk clips on Tiktok from time to time. If I were one of the students he is talking to I would just go up and punch him in the face. Just such an incredible asshole.
However, he continued to dig himself into a massive hole with women.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-protect-women-green-bay-rally_n_6722f2d1e4b02f5ab1d23299
... says the man with a history of doing various things to women when they don't want him to.
This is just completely disgusting. How can any woman vote for this guy?
https://www.delawarepublic.org/politics-government/2024-10-29/early-voting-numbers-continue-to-surge-in-delaware-voters-say-whats-driving-them
Adding in the 31,599 absentee ballots, the combined total as of 8:41 AM today was 137,960!!
"In 2022, about 55,500 people voted early over 10 days. As of Monday, over 106,000 people have voted early with six days remaining."
"Sussex County has seen the highest early voting turnout, with almost 55,000 people casting ballot through Tuesday. New Castle County is seeing the second highest turnout behind Sussex, with nearly 33,000 ballots cast over the first five days."
There's only 3 counties in the state.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
I'm almost as baffled by that as that he seems to have ~10% of the black vote.
He literally called for black people to be executed after they were eventually exonerated. Even if they do think eggs were cheaper or whatever, you've got to be astonishingly low-information to think that Trump and those backing him aren't the actual distilled essence of Ofay.
I'm wondering if it also applies to other Trump voting minorities.
WoW
Dear Satan.....