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2024 US [Election] Thread: Election Day is this week
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So you're saying the Democratic party is one big messed up fambly?
Honestly this explains so much.
Also when do we get to the point we're just strapping rocket engines onto random objects?
Or did we pass that point already?
@GiantGeek2020
The easiest thing to do is to just head to Mobilize.US it's a sort of clearinghouse of campaign and non-profit events. It won't have everything going on but it'll have a lot and there should be a lot of "Final Stretch Canvass" options.
And thanks for getting out there!
Thanks I don't want to be loaded into a trailer and find out I'm working for Musk.
Have you seen the stock market? 🚀 🚀 🚀
I am not sure if a campaigned branded garbage truck has ever been attempted before. But a garbage man in his garbage truck does seem on brand.
Then the marathon of election lawsuits begins. I’m honestly kind of tired already but will get the adrenaline rush to do my tiny part of the legal battle. My family and friends are the best, though, and have already stocked my favorite food to get me through (plus we’re making a lot of homemade ice cream ahead of time).
We got this!
On that note, I keep seeing encouraging gender gap stuff in EV. But does anyone know if there is typically a gender gap in EV? Is this years bigger or smaller?
Celebrating 55-44 seems foolish if it’s normally 56-42
The Jordanians say it will reach the US destination in 48 hrs.
I'm not so sure. But I have a tracking number
Bidens (made up) gaffe only lasted a few minutes outside of fox
Honestly I am not sure we know the last few election cycles have been anything but normal. GOP used to have massive early voting advantage because it was mostly old people then that started to switch then covid happened then the whole roe v wade thing. I am not sure anybody has a good feel of what is "normal" and what is "good" at this point. Just go and vote and get others to vote it is the most and least we can do.
His ardent Puerto Rican supporters disagree.
Yeah, Biden seemingly didn’t the traction people feared and I’ve barely heard anything about Trump getting to drive his big boy garbage truck.
It varies by state. Early voting does change every cycle somewhat. Compared to 2020 it's about a point or two more F than normal. The problem is that the M/F divide is the largest it's been in possibly a century. So if the electorate is normally 52F/48M that's going to have some pretty swingy effects that you normally wouldn't see.
They love him. He loves them. He's done so much for them.
There were two stories about it "above the fold" so to speak on CNN all day yesterday. Made A1 of today's NYT. Real voters don't care, but real voters don't care about lots of things until the news signals to them that it's important.
Don't threaten me with a good time.
Fixed that for you.
No, we don't actually know how tight it is, because polling is garbage. It's basically just vibes with numbers.
Unless you mean he should be in prison right now. Then yes.
Yeah, the biggest problem is that early voting composition varies wildly year to year (within states) and between states, with little predictive power of the overall electorate. If I remember correctly, 95% of early voters would have voted anyway, so it’s almost entirely shifting around when people vote, not if they vote.
That said, even a 1% uptick in female voters to male voters would make things a blowout for Harris. That’s how gender polarized things are. So strong turnout among women during midterms since 2016 (with possible acceleration over time) could be a decisive factor in Harris over performing polling.
So, as everyone keeps saying: You can't tell anything from early voting patterns. I know we're all desperate for news, but it just isn't there.
If this era has proved anything, it's that if you just say what you're going to do all the time and double down people just stop reporting on it because it's not secret.
Ev huge on the gender gap, right wing influencers crying about it etc
But I worry about context
IMO it's more a matter of follow the money. The Owners have their agenda (and their whole hand on the scale), as we've seen when their employees try to go against it.
Like this would just be a campaign speech nowadays
Yeah, this is what I based my predictions on how 2020 and 2022 would go on. If they're complaining about the election being rigged, they're probably going to lose. I don't think I've seen as much of that this time, which seems like they think they CAN win. But a lot of their strategy seem like Hail Mary plays. Especially the anti-trans stuff. It seems like they're trying to rile up the base rather than entice swing voters, which isn't exactly where you want to be with less than a week to go.
Steam: pazython
2020 votes (in thousands)
Women = 82,154
Men = 72,474
Total* = 154,628
That comes out to women making up 53.13% and men making up 46.87% of the vote, with a 6.26% difference.
*This is adding the above two numbers, and not the total votes, which was almost 4 million more than this number according to USA Today.
When the 158,430 number into account, the percentage break down is: women 51.86%, men 45.75%, with a 6.11% difference.
Pollsters have a limited set of tools to draw pictures about the broader electorate, but the campaigns themselves are vastly more sophisticated operations. They will have breakdowns by county, demographics, and propensity. Nearly all well financed campaigns have their own voter files with probability rankings per voter. So while pollsters can't really say how things are going, the campaigns will know how many of their unreliable voters have turned out and where the outstanding vote for them is. That the Harris campaign appears confident while the Trump surrogates are out there begging men to vote tells you roughly who is doing better with their unreliable voting demographic. That doesn't project a win or anything, but it does give insight into how both campaigns view the election at this point. The problem still remains that enough election day vote is outstanding and if those low propensity voters show up it could flip critical states.
All the junk mail ads against Figures have been hilariously bad. Since he hasn't been in congress before they've just been attributing "stuff they don't like" that other people have done to him instead.
According to the Alabama GOP he has been responsible for the actions of the following people:
Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Merrick Garland, Robert Bentley (former Republican governor of Alabama), and Kay Ivey (current Republican governor of Alabama)
(Could be more people, I got tired of looking at the junk)
There’s no downside to the Republicans calling foul. If they win, they’re just that awesome, if they lose then they’ve already laid the groundwork for post-election shenanigans.
To keep myself sane over the last week, I've been engaging in my miniature painting hobby, and would like to present to you the subtle political commentary I've assembled from the last 4 models I've painted.