As Sporky said, the Wii and 360 just carry on where they're going. Then the PS3 goes "OH HELL NO GUYS!" and decides to get all vertical. Because that's how sales go. Yup.
darleysam on
0
FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
I like how the other systems are smooth lines, but the PS3? Hell no, it's getting a kink and going straight up. Never mind there isn't much in the foreseeable future that might cause such a kink.
The Wii actually I could see on its line. It's got to be getting close to saturation. It has to be.
I'm saving that image just for the kink out of nowhere. I mean, what? How the hell can consultants not wrap their mind around the PS3 might not end up on top this generation?
At least now they're admitting that the Wii will probably end up selling a hojillion units. As for Wii saturation, who knows. With the current software library I think they might start to taper off, but if some more good casual and enthusiast titles land in 2008 (read: GODDAMN SMASH BROS) the Moon will be just a small stopover point for the rocket.
I'm saving that image just for the kink out of nowhere. I mean, what? How the hell can consultants not wrap their mind around the PS3 might not end up on top this generation?
That graph is stupid and the analyst who made it is stupid.
I love how blatantly obvious their methodology is, too:
Step 1: Make a prediction of Wii sales - have them slowing slightly, but basically just extend the curve
Step 2: Draw a straight line from where the PS3 is right now to where the Wii is projected to finish
Step 3: call yourself a 'consultant' instead of 'random internet dickweed'
Step 4: Profit.
Man, I wish I could make six figures a year to pull predictions like this straight out of my ass.
Apparently this analyst knows about something coming out in January that is going to make PS3 systems FLY OFF THE SHELVES (on their own accord?) in record breaking demand that not even the Wii has seen.
As to saturation, the Wii can't be anywhere near saturation yet. I mean, look at the DS and PS2. There are enough of them sold so far that everyone on earth should have 2. I don't have either.
As Sporky said, the Wii and 360 just carry on where they're going. Then the PS3 goes "OH HELL NO GUYS!" and decides to get all vertical. Because that's how sales go. Yup.
PS3 gets vert air! News at 11.
God that is so dumb. Pulling numbers out of your ass for the win.
ONE of this year's must-have Christmas gifts is a Nintendo Wii video-game console. And, just like Bratz or Cabbage Patch dolls in past years, it is proving hard to find. On Friday December 7th Nintendo announced it may even stop TV advertising in Britain until 2008 because it cannot meet demand. In September worldwide sales of the lower-priced Wii overtook Microsoft's Xbox 360. But the Wii's lack of high-resolution graphics may eventually dent its desirability. By 2011 Sony's PlayStation 3 is forecast to catch up with the Wii, according to Screen Digest, a consultancy.
HAHAHAH. I love the prediction lines. We should keep this and compare it in a few years.
Just think how fast the PS3 will be predicted to sell in a couple years. I mean clearly they aren't going to move that end point. Eventually, in 2010 they will be predicting that the PS3 will sell 35M in 2011.
lowlylowlycook on
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
ONE of this year's must-have Christmas gifts is a Nintendo Wii video-game console. And, just like Bratz or Cabbage Patch dolls in past years, it is proving hard to find. On Friday December 7th Nintendo announced it may even stop TV advertising in Britain until 2008 because it cannot meet demand. In September worldwide sales of the lower-priced Wii overtook Microsoft's Xbox 360. But the Wii's lack of high-resolution graphics may eventually dent its desirability. By 2011 Sony's PlayStation 3 is forecast to catch up with the Wii, according to Screen Digest, a consultancy.
HAHAHAH. I love the prediction lines. We should keep this and compare it in a few years.
Just think how fast the PS3 will be predicted to sell in a couple years. I mean clearly they aren't going to move that end point. Eventually, in 2010 they will be predicting that the PS3 will sell 35M in 2011.
And then Nintendo will release the pink and black versions of the Wii and all hell will break loose....
And? Predicting the economy is like predicting the weather. You have some idea of what might happen but that doesnt stop it from going completely batty at any time.
What Im saying is that while the current trend can continue, theres a chance that it wont, especially in an industry as fickle and picky as this one.
Plus home launches early next year... someone asked earlier in the thread if there was anything in store for the PS3 that might facilitate such a jump.
MistaCreepy on
PS3: MistaCreepy::Steam: MistaCreepy::360: Dead and I don't feel like paying to fix it.
And? Predicting the economy is like predicting the weather. You have some idea of what might happen but that doesnt stop it from going completely batty at any time.
I guess I missed you point then. I thought you were saying that we were getting overly excited about some random guys photoshopped predictions.
[edit] Perhaps there is an untapped need for people to decorate their fake houses before going off to play Killzone 2. I guess time will tell.
lowlylowlycook on
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
0
syndalisGetting ClassyOn the WallRegistered User, Loves Apple Productsregular
And? Predicting the economy is like predicting the weather. You have some idea of what might happen but that doesnt stop it from going completely batty at any time.
What Im saying is that while the current trend can continue, theres a chance that it wont, especially in an industry as fickle and picky as this one.
Plus home launches early next year... someone asked earlier in the thread if there was anything in store for the PS3 that might facilitate such a jump.
Home is second life for consoles. With Microtransactions.
Don't get me wrong; I am really looking forward to it (anything to find a non-folding activity for my PS3 would be cool right now), but I really doubt that home will be an uber-hit amongst the undecided masses.
GAMES should be that deciding factor, in which case maybe the analyst thinks MGS4 has a shot at doing that?
syndalis on
SW-4158-3990-6116
Let's play Mario Kart or something...
And? Predicting the economy is like predicting the weather. You have some idea of what might happen but that doesnt stop it from going completely batty at any time.
[edit] Perhaps there is an untapped need for people to decorate their fake houses before going off to play Killzone 2. I guess time will tell.
I'm not huge on things like that... I think achievements are stupid, so I probably wont use most of the home stuff, but people eat this shit up.... the sims, second life, myspace... I cant wait to start some kind of Clockwork Orange type gang with other PA'ers and wreck shit. Ultraviolence baby!
MistaCreepy on
PS3: MistaCreepy::Steam: MistaCreepy::360: Dead and I don't feel like paying to fix it.
And? Predicting the economy is like predicting the weather. You have some idea of what might happen but that doesnt stop it from going completely batty at any time.
What Im saying is that while the current trend can continue, theres a chance that it wont, especially in an industry as fickle and picky as this one.
Plus home launches early next year... someone asked earlier in the thread if there was anything in store for the PS3 that might facilitate such a jump.
Am I the only person absolutely not interested in Home at all? I want to play games not second life light. I would think FFXIII will have a bigger impact on sales, much bigger. I mean is there a soccor mom in the world that will even know what Home is?
And? Predicting the economy is like predicting the weather. You have some idea of what might happen but that doesnt stop it from going completely batty at any time.
[edit] Perhaps there is an untapped need for people to decorate their fake houses before going off to play Killzone 2. I guess time will tell.
I'm not huge on things like that... I think achievements are stupid, so I probably wont use most of the home stuff, but people eat this shit up.... the sims, second life, myspace... I cant wait to start some kind of Clockwork Orange type gang with other PA'ers and wreck shit. Ultraviolence baby!
You can fantasize about Home compelling all the sims players to buy a PS3 or you can fantasize about Sony letting you "wreck shit", but those are exclusive fantasies.
lowlylowlycook on
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
And? Predicting the economy is like predicting the weather. You have some idea of what might happen but that doesnt stop it from going completely batty at any time.
[edit] Perhaps there is an untapped need for people to decorate their fake houses before going off to play Killzone 2. I guess time will tell.
I'm not huge on things like that... I think achievements are stupid, so I probably wont use most of the home stuff, but people eat this shit up.... the sims, second life, myspace... I cant wait to start some kind of Clockwork Orange type gang with other PA'ers and wreck shit. Ultraviolence baby!
You can fantasize about Home compelling all the sims players to buy a PS3 or you can fantasize about Sony letting you "wreck shit", but those are exclusive fantasies.
Ill fantasize about both thank you. And add another with a cute Japanese girl being sent by Sony to my house to "reward" me for being an early adopter.
MistaCreepy on
PS3: MistaCreepy::Steam: MistaCreepy::360: Dead and I don't feel like paying to fix it.
And apparently the 360 is just gonna die, for no reason at all. Apparently, there always has to be a "dead" system for the analysts. I really don't know why this turns out to be the 360.
Yep, the 360 is just another Xbox. And since the oXbox came in at 15% market share last gen, there's no way the 360 can hold out against the successful Wii and the unstoppable, almighty Playstation Brand.
On another note,
After reading about the Suda 51 and his launch of No More Heroes in Japan, I decided, while running errands today, that I would preorder the game. Now I haven't preordered anything in years, but I hope that at least 1 preorder will at least slightly increase the expected demand for the game.
The register jockey at GameStop had no idea wtf No More Heroes was when I asked to preorder it.
This game is doomed to fail. It makes me sad. People need to buy it.
slash, I haven't bought a game day one since....well, long enough ago that I can't even remember having done it. And I will pay the full $50 for No More Heroes as soon as they'll let me. I hope I am not alone.
slash, I haven't bought a game day one since....well, long enough ago that I can't even remember having done it. And I will pay the full $50 for No More Heroes as soon as they'll let me. I hope I am not alone.
I tend to buy a lot of games day 1, and this is definitely going to be one of them. We need more people to hear about this game!
urahonky on
0
SirUltimosDon't talk, Rusty. Just paint.Registered Userregular
edited December 2007
I'm buying No More Heroes on release day. For great justice.
After reading about the Suda 51 and his launch of No More Heroes in Japan, I decided....
what happened? sell way less than expected?
Sales numbers aren't out yet...
..but..
What happened was that Suda 51 and Yasuhiro Wada (harvest moon creator) showed up at Sofmap in Akihabara on the release of the game, along with a hundred rolls of No More Heroes toilet paper, and a hot chick in Sylvia Christel cosplay, to take photos, sign copies of the game, and give out NMH toilet paper for fans at launch.
Nobody showed up.
Someone from the press at the event bought a copy and had them sign it.
But that's it.
Maybe the 'event' wasn't publicized, maybe it wasn't "meant' to be a "big deal," or whatever. But still. I would've fucking been there. I'd've gotten my copy of the game signed. I sure as hell plan on getting the game on day 1.
I can't imagine that this game will have great sales numbers once Mediacreate comes out.
what the hell is that graph?? that guy lives in the alternate future where sony goes back in time to 1985, drops the ps3 price to $99, and packs it with FF13, MGS4 and Killzone 2, and kittens.
Thing is, after twenty minutes of Suda and Wada standing in front of Akihabara's Sofmap, nobody bought the game. Keep in mind, that not only two well-known game creators were giving out toilet paper [and signing games], but there was also a woman in a mini-skirt (that, after the jump). Talk about a tough crowd!
Japanese game press like IT Media, GA Graphic and Famitsu were at the bust of an event and didn't have any customers to photograph at the launch. According to Akiba Blog, a staffer from Famitsu publisher Enterbrain apparently went and bought a copy of No More Heroes for Wada and Suda to sign.
Not that his games have sold great in the past. Currently they say NMH did 10k its first week. Here's how it stacks up to Killer7.
Killer7 GCN: 4.5K first week and disappeared; didn't reach the 15.2K necessary to make the yearly Top 500.
Killer7 PS2: 13.7 first week, 28.6K last we saw it in the 2005 yearly Top 500.
So his games don't have a history of succeeding in Japan. At least it's off to a better start than the Gamecube Killer7, if that counts for something.
what the hell is that graph?? that guy lives in the alternate future where sony goes back in time to 1985, drops the ps3 price to $99, and packs it with FF13, MGS4 and Killzone 2, and kittens.
The graph I posted is something I made several months ago when Nick Parker, from the very same Screen Digest, made the same prediction that at some magical time in 2008 the PS3 sales will take off at a rate exceeding the Wii and exceed it before the generation is over.
Several months ago all he had were year-end numbers for his predictions, no images. So I graphed them so that everyone could have a visual representation of his retardation.
Now, several months later, he finally learns how to use Excel, and makes a graph for himself.
Apparently, he's tempered his absurd prediction somewhat, as he has the PS3 catching up to the Wii by 2011-end instead of significantly exceeding it.
Good Lord. Gametrailers has a 'year in review' featuring NGai Croal, Michael Pachter, and a GT editor or something.
Pachter apparently finds it reasonable both that the PS3 could drop to $299 next year and that 'if it reaches the sales rate of the Wii, it should be fine." and that "we'll probably see something close to that."
*sigh*
whatever.
ugh; now he's predicting 800,000 PS3s sold for December. Right.
oh, and Sony to make their "comeback" in Spring with Metal Gear Solid 4.
Thing is, after twenty minutes of Suda and Wada standing in front of Akihabara's Sofmap, nobody bought the game. Keep in mind, that not only two well-known game creators were giving out toilet paper [and signing games], but there was also a woman in a mini-skirt (that, after the jump). Talk about a tough crowd!
Japanese game press like IT Media, GA Graphic and Famitsu were at the bust of an event and didn't have any customers to photograph at the launch. According to Akiba Blog, a staffer from Famitsu publisher Enterbrain apparently went and bought a copy of No More Heroes for Wada and Suda to sign.
Not that his games have sold great in the past. Currently they say NMH did 10k its first week. Here's how it stacks up to Killer7.
Killer7 GCN: 4.5K first week and disappeared; didn't reach the 15.2K necessary to make the yearly Top 500.
Killer7 PS2: 13.7 first week, 28.6K last we saw it in the 2005 yearly Top 500.
So his games don't have a history of succeeding in Japan. At least it's off to a better start than the Gamecube Killer7, if that counts for something.
i really have to wonder: did Capcom advertise this game at all in Japan? will they even bother in the U.S.?
Thing is, after twenty minutes of Suda and Wada standing in front of Akihabara's Sofmap, nobody bought the game. Keep in mind, that not only two well-known game creators were giving out toilet paper [and signing games], but there was also a woman in a mini-skirt (that, after the jump). Talk about a tough crowd!
Japanese game press like IT Media, GA Graphic and Famitsu were at the bust of an event and didn't have any customers to photograph at the launch. According to Akiba Blog, a staffer from Famitsu publisher Enterbrain apparently went and bought a copy of No More Heroes for Wada and Suda to sign.
Not that his games have sold great in the past. Currently they say NMH did 10k its first week. Here's how it stacks up to Killer7.
Killer7 GCN: 4.5K first week and disappeared; didn't reach the 15.2K necessary to make the yearly Top 500.
Killer7 PS2: 13.7 first week, 28.6K last we saw it in the 2005 yearly Top 500.
So his games don't have a history of succeeding in Japan. At least it's off to a better start than the Gamecube Killer7, if that counts for something.
i really have to wonder: did Capcom advertise this game at all in Japan? will they even bother in the U.S.?
Posts
At least now they're admitting that the Wii will probably end up selling a hojillion units. As for Wii saturation, who knows. With the current software library I think they might start to taper off, but if some more good casual and enthusiast titles land in 2008 (read: GODDAMN SMASH BROS) the Moon will be just a small stopover point for the rocket.
Because! eets teh praystation!
Step 1: Make a prediction of Wii sales - have them slowing slightly, but basically just extend the curve
Step 2: Draw a straight line from where the PS3 is right now to where the Wii is projected to finish
Step 3: call yourself a 'consultant' instead of 'random internet dickweed'
Step 4: Profit.
Man, I wish I could make six figures a year to pull predictions like this straight out of my ass.
Then in a years time when the hype starts to die they can release Wiier Fitter and rake in even more cash.
PSN = Wicker86 ________ Gamertag = Wicker86
As to saturation, the Wii can't be anywhere near saturation yet. I mean, look at the DS and PS2. There are enough of them sold so far that everyone on earth should have 2. I don't have either.
PS3 gets vert air! News at 11.
God that is so dumb. Pulling numbers out of your ass for the win.
Just think how fast the PS3 will be predicted to sell in a couple years. I mean clearly they aren't going to move that end point. Eventually, in 2010 they will be predicting that the PS3 will sell 35M in 2011.
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
some guy + photoshop + lines = RAAAAAGGGGGGEEEEEE
Nah, I don't think WiiFit will impact sales much.
They need to be able to produce more to sell more at this point.
And then Nintendo will release the pink and black versions of the Wii and all hell will break loose....
Nintendo Network ID: AzraelRose
DropBox invite link - get 500MB extra free.
Well some guy = economist magazine in this case.
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
And? Predicting the economy is like predicting the weather. You have some idea of what might happen but that doesnt stop it from going completely batty at any time.
What Im saying is that while the current trend can continue, theres a chance that it wont, especially in an industry as fickle and picky as this one.
Plus home launches early next year... someone asked earlier in the thread if there was anything in store for the PS3 that might facilitate such a jump.
I guess I missed you point then. I thought you were saying that we were getting overly excited about some random guys photoshopped predictions.
[edit] Perhaps there is an untapped need for people to decorate their fake houses before going off to play Killzone 2. I guess time will tell.
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
Don't get me wrong; I am really looking forward to it (anything to find a non-folding activity for my PS3 would be cool right now), but I really doubt that home will be an uber-hit amongst the undecided masses.
GAMES should be that deciding factor, in which case maybe the analyst thinks MGS4 has a shot at doing that?
Let's play Mario Kart or something...
I'm not huge on things like that... I think achievements are stupid, so I probably wont use most of the home stuff, but people eat this shit up.... the sims, second life, myspace... I cant wait to start some kind of Clockwork Orange type gang with other PA'ers and wreck shit. Ultraviolence baby!
Am I the only person absolutely not interested in Home at all? I want to play games not second life light. I would think FFXIII will have a bigger impact on sales, much bigger. I mean is there a soccor mom in the world that will even know what Home is?
You can fantasize about Home compelling all the sims players to buy a PS3 or you can fantasize about Sony letting you "wreck shit", but those are exclusive fantasies.
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
Ill fantasize about both thank you. And add another with a cute Japanese girl being sent by Sony to my house to "reward" me for being an early adopter.
D00d, are you chugging Mountain Dew and/or snowboarding right now?
Both... at the same time. Cowabunga dude.
Nick Parker from Screen Digest made this same forecast about 3 months ago:
I graphed his predictions just to make fun of it. I kept the image.
looks like he's tempered his predictions a little, having the PS3 merely catch up to the Wii by 2011 instead of exceeding it.
Steam ID: slashx000______Twitter: @bill_at_zeboyd______ Facebook: Zeboyd Games
On another note,
After reading about the Suda 51 and his launch of No More Heroes in Japan, I decided, while running errands today, that I would preorder the game. Now I haven't preordered anything in years, but I hope that at least 1 preorder will at least slightly increase the expected demand for the game.
The register jockey at GameStop had no idea wtf No More Heroes was when I asked to preorder it.
This game is doomed to fail. It makes me sad. People need to buy it.
Steam ID: slashx000______Twitter: @bill_at_zeboyd______ Facebook: Zeboyd Games
I tend to buy a lot of games day 1, and this is definitely going to be one of them. We need more people to hear about this game!
what happened? sell way less than expected?
where expectation > 0
answer = very yes
Sales numbers aren't out yet...
..but..
What happened was that Suda 51 and Yasuhiro Wada (harvest moon creator) showed up at Sofmap in Akihabara on the release of the game, along with a hundred rolls of No More Heroes toilet paper, and a hot chick in Sylvia Christel cosplay, to take photos, sign copies of the game, and give out NMH toilet paper for fans at launch.
Nobody showed up.
Someone from the press at the event bought a copy and had them sign it.
But that's it.
Maybe the 'event' wasn't publicized, maybe it wasn't "meant' to be a "big deal," or whatever. But still. I would've fucking been there. I'd've gotten my copy of the game signed. I sure as hell plan on getting the game on day 1.
I can't imagine that this game will have great sales numbers once Mediacreate comes out.
Steam ID: slashx000______Twitter: @bill_at_zeboyd______ Facebook: Zeboyd Games
http://kotaku.com/gaming/suda51/mini+skirt-or-not-no-more-customers-331771.php
Not that his games have sold great in the past. Currently they say NMH did 10k its first week. Here's how it stacks up to Killer7.
Killer7 GCN: 4.5K first week and disappeared; didn't reach the 15.2K necessary to make the yearly Top 500.
Killer7 PS2: 13.7 first week, 28.6K last we saw it in the 2005 yearly Top 500.
So his games don't have a history of succeeding in Japan. At least it's off to a better start than the Gamecube Killer7, if that counts for something.
The graph I posted is something I made several months ago when Nick Parker, from the very same Screen Digest, made the same prediction that at some magical time in 2008 the PS3 sales will take off at a rate exceeding the Wii and exceed it before the generation is over.
Several months ago all he had were year-end numbers for his predictions, no images. So I graphed them so that everyone could have a visual representation of his retardation.
Now, several months later, he finally learns how to use Excel, and makes a graph for himself.
Apparently, he's tempered his absurd prediction somewhat, as he has the PS3 catching up to the Wii by 2011-end instead of significantly exceeding it.
Steam ID: slashx000______Twitter: @bill_at_zeboyd______ Facebook: Zeboyd Games
Pachter apparently finds it reasonable both that the PS3 could drop to $299 next year and that 'if it reaches the sales rate of the Wii, it should be fine." and that "we'll probably see something close to that."
*sigh*
whatever.
ugh; now he's predicting 800,000 PS3s sold for December. Right.
oh, and Sony to make their "comeback" in Spring with Metal Gear Solid 4.
Steam ID: slashx000______Twitter: @bill_at_zeboyd______ Facebook: Zeboyd Games
i really have to wonder: did Capcom advertise this game at all in Japan? will they even bother in the U.S.?
steam | Dokkan: 868846562
ubisoft is publishing it in the U.S.