Good Lord. Gametrailers has a 'year in review' featuring NGai Croal, Michael Pachter, and a GT editor or something.
Pachter apparently finds it reasonable both that the PS3 could drop to $299 next year and that 'if it reaches the sales rate of the Wii, it should be fine." and that "we'll probably see something close to that."
*sigh*
whatever.
ugh; now he's predicting 800,000 PS3s sold for December. Right.
oh, and Sony to make their "comeback" in Spring with Metal Gear Solid 4.
Is this really out of the realm of possibility? The 360 took off with Gears which is now considered its killer app. The PS3 has a few games coming next year that have been mentioned as possible killer apps for the system: LBP, MGS4, and Killzone 2. Catching the Wii sales rates... nah. Not next year. But catching up with the 360 is definately a possibility and anyone who doesnt think so needs to stop drinking the kool aid.
Not commenting on that 800000 prediction.
MistaCreepy on
PS3: MistaCreepy::Steam: MistaCreepy::360: Dead and I don't feel like paying to fix it.
Good Lord. Gametrailers has a 'year in review' featuring NGai Croal, Michael Pachter, and a GT editor or something.
Pachter apparently finds it reasonable both that the PS3 could drop to $299 next year and that 'if it reaches the sales rate of the Wii, it should be fine." and that "we'll probably see something close to that."
*sigh*
whatever.
ugh; now he's predicting 800,000 PS3s sold for December. Right.
oh, and Sony to make their "comeback" in Spring with Metal Gear Solid 4.
was ngai just sitting there nodding along. hes about as pro sony as pachter (but without the suck)
Good Lord. Gametrailers has a 'year in review' featuring NGai Croal, Michael Pachter, and a GT editor or something.
Pachter apparently finds it reasonable both that the PS3 could drop to $299 next year and that 'if it reaches the sales rate of the Wii, it should be fine." and that "we'll probably see something close to that."
*sigh*
whatever.
ugh; now he's predicting 800,000 PS3s sold for December. Right.
oh, and Sony to make their "comeback" in Spring with Metal Gear Solid 4.
Is this really out of the realm of possibility? The 360 took off with Gears which is now considered its killer app. The PS3 has a few games coming next year that have been mentioned as possible killer apps for the system: LBP, MGS4, and Killzone 2. Catching the Wii sales rates... nah. Not next year. But catching up with the 360 is definately a possibility and anyone who doesnt think so needs to stop drinking the kool aid.
Not commenting on that 800000 prediction.
Except to catch up to the 360 it doesn't have to match it's sales, but exceed them, and put a large enough gap that it's able to make up for the 360's year advantage. And while I'll admit that the PS3 might have some games that some people may find slightly atractive, any sane person would agree that the 360 has a much larger library of A and AAA games because of, again, the 1 year advantage.
Good Lord. Gametrailers has a 'year in review' featuring NGai Croal, Michael Pachter, and a GT editor or something.
Pachter apparently finds it reasonable both that the PS3 could drop to $299 next year and that 'if it reaches the sales rate of the Wii, it should be fine." and that "we'll probably see something close to that."
*sigh*
whatever.
ugh; now he's predicting 800,000 PS3s sold for December. Right.
oh, and Sony to make their "comeback" in Spring with Metal Gear Solid 4.
Is this really out of the realm of possibility? The 360 took off with Gears which is now considered its killer app. The PS3 has a few games coming next year that have been mentioned as possible killer apps for the system: LBP, MGS4, and Killzone 2. Catching the Wii sales rates... nah. Not next year. But catching up with the 360 is definately a possibility and anyone who doesnt think so needs to stop drinking the kool aid.
Not commenting on that 800000 prediction.
Except to catch up to the 360 it doesn't have to match it's sales, but exceed them, and put a large enough gap that it's able to make up for the 360's year advantage. And while I'll admit that the PS3 might have some games that some people may find slightly atractive, any sane person would agree that the 360 has a much larger library of A and AAA games because of, again, the 1 year advantage.
Bolded part made me laugh... in a good way.
Well that 1st year advantage is up dude and you can see this next year for the PS3 is going to be huge. Can MS keep up this frantic pace of AAA titles? They better if they want to keep their lead. I dont think the PS3 will pass the 360 next year, but I do believe it will close that gap by quite a bit.
MistaCreepy on
PS3: MistaCreepy::Steam: MistaCreepy::360: Dead and I don't feel like paying to fix it.
Good Lord. Gametrailers has a 'year in review' featuring NGai Croal, Michael Pachter, and a GT editor or something.
Pachter apparently finds it reasonable both that the PS3 could drop to $299 next year and that 'if it reaches the sales rate of the Wii, it should be fine." and that "we'll probably see something close to that."
*sigh*
whatever.
ugh; now he's predicting 800,000 PS3s sold for December. Right.
oh, and Sony to make their "comeback" in Spring with Metal Gear Solid 4.
Is this really out of the realm of possibility? The 360 took off with Gears which is now considered its killer app. The PS3 has a few games coming next year that have been mentioned as possible killer apps for the system: LBP, MGS4, and Killzone 2. Catching the Wii sales rates... nah. Not next year. But catching up with the 360 is definately a possibility and anyone who doesnt think so needs to stop drinking the kool aid.
Not commenting on that 800000 prediction.
Except to catch up to the 360 it doesn't have to match it's sales, but exceed them, and put a large enough gap that it's able to make up for the 360's year advantage. And while I'll admit that the PS3 might have some games that some people may find slightly atractive, any sane person would agree that the 360 has a much larger library of A and AAA games because of, again, the 1 year advantage.
Bolded part made me laugh... in a good way.
Well that 1st year advantage is up dude and you can see this next year for the PS3 is going to be huge. Can MS keep up this frantic pace of AAA titles? They better if they want to keep their lead. I dont think the PS3 will pass the 360 next year, but I do believe it will close that gap by quite a bit.
How could a 1 year advantage expire? The 360 will always have a 1 year jump on the PS3 regardless of how old each is.
The PS3 is going to suffer quite a bit still. As developers (a) look at how much money they're not making because they're not on the Wii and (b) look at how much it's costing them to make games for the 360 and the PS3, they'll start to realize more and more that the only economical thing they can do is take their PS3 and 360 exclusives and make them multiplatform. If the PS3 and 360 libraries are nearly identical (except that the 360 has more games) and the 360 is cheaper then the PS3 has still got quite a rough row to hoe.
Well the 1 year will always be there, but the first year is always the hardest. The second year is when the big titles that have been in development since before launch get released (Gears, Halo3 Mass Effect) and the install base is usually large enough for developers to begin bigger projects for the future. Also devs become more acclimated to the hardware.
And the fact that the game library for both the 360 and the PS3 are almost identical as you said is a good thing for the PS3 since the 360 does in fact have that extra year... I would hope the 360 has more games with an extra year under its belt.
As for the Wii, its fundamentally different from the other 2. Games that are mulitplatform on the PS3/360 usually cannot be ported to the Wii. The Wii has a huge install base on its own, but the combined install base of the 360 and PS3 is larger. Also releasing a title on the Wii is no promise of huge success. There are alot of big Wii titles that arent selling as much as the huge install base would suggest.
MistaCreepy on
PS3: MistaCreepy::Steam: MistaCreepy::360: Dead and I don't feel like paying to fix it.
0
Dr Mario KartGames DealerAustin, TXRegistered Userregular
edited December 2007
The first year advantage isnt something that just runs out. They've managed to eat up quite a lot of the market of people who can tolerate $400 as a price point. They're always going to have the advantage of cutting into the base at every new price point first, until Sony can not only match them on the price, but the TIMING as well. Timing is important.
With that said, I am predicting a price drop of some sort before the end of the 2008, I personally think late summer. This is based on the following pricing model of consoles that are behind:
To equal the 360 by the end of next year, the PS3 has to sell at a rate roughly equal to the Wii, starting last month. Not gonna happen.
To catch the 360 by 2009, it has to sell 1.5 times the rate that it is now, starting immediately, and that is assuming that MS doesn't respond and the 360 sales remain constant. Very unlikely to happen, as any surge in sales due to further price cuts can very easily be matched by Microsoft at this point.
It's just not going to happen. Sony has dropped the ball on 2 major holiday seasons. Many key games are multiplatform, the most significant of which is probably GTA IV. People are quickly losing reasons to invest the extra cash for a PS3 when they can get a lot of other good stuff on the less expensive system.
If sony wants to catch up, I think, the only way they can do it is by matching the 360's price (at best), and undercutting the 360's price at worst.
edit: check out what DrMarioKart posted. Despite being significantly more powerful and having a lot of ports and a few significant exclusives, having a price cut really didn't help the oXbox at all, nor the GCN. While there may be some pent up demand for the PS3 at a reasonable price, a lot of the market that's willing to pay $400 for a console has been taken up already.
And that was when the oxbox matched the PS2's price; we're looking at a situation where the PS3 has price dropped multiple times in the first year and is still more expensive than its competition.
Well that 1st year advantage is up dude and you can see this next year for the PS3 is going to be huge. Can MS keep up this frantic pace of AAA titles? They better if they want to keep their lead. I dont think the PS3 will pass the 360 next year, but I do believe it will close that gap by quite a bit.
Again, to close the gap they have to sell more than the 360, and to close it by any reasonable amount, they have to sell significantly more, which is not going to happen. Sure, the big 2nd year titles are coming out, the problem is that they were supposed to be out now, and when they do come out, their sales will be muted because the holliday sales will be over. Also, while PS3 developers may be a bit more used to it in the 2nd year, it'll be the 3rd year for the 360 and they'll be able to get even more out of it tthan they could in the 2nd year.
Also, I'm not a Xbox fanboy by any means, never owned one, probably never will. It's just plain common sense that it's leading the PS3 and is going to continue to do so barring an act of god.
How the heck can the PS3 reach the sales rate of the Wii?
Get the God damn thing under $200.
OK. How could they do it without going so deep into the red that it makes the huge costs of the original Xbox look good in comparison?
You ask the impossible!
Khavall on
0
Dr Mario KartGames DealerAustin, TXRegistered Userregular
edited December 2007
I dont think they are in a good position to follow the xbox strategy of cutting support early and getting a jump start on the next generation. They are already very technically advanced. They just may have boxed themselves into the whole multi-generational generation. But for serious, not joking.
Good Lord. Gametrailers has a 'year in review' featuring NGai Croal, Michael Pachter, and a GT editor or something.
Pachter apparently finds it reasonable both that the PS3 could drop to $299 next year and that 'if it reaches the sales rate of the Wii, it should be fine." and that "we'll probably see something close to that."
*sigh*
whatever.
ugh; now he's predicting 800,000 PS3s sold for December. Right.
oh, and Sony to make their "comeback" in Spring with Metal Gear Solid 4.
I'll believe it when I see it.
Narian on
0
Dr Mario KartGames DealerAustin, TXRegistered Userregular
edited December 2007
800k is just the standard formula of December being double November, and 400k is expected to be in the neighborhood for Nov. November is double October, but the price drop is supposed to be making up the difference between the 121k PS3 did in October and the 200k sustained that it would need to hit 400k in November, statistically.
Basically it comes down to how much of an effect does the price drop really have. Long term we've already seen that its questionable, but short term its a definite boost.
Patcher said that Wii has sold around 1.3 millions.
Oy, that Patcher.
Really, the only thing that is unpredictable about the vidja game business is who comes in first, second and third. What IS predictable is the fact that relative sales positions set during the first year all consoles are out don't change during the lifetime of the consoles. The PS's maintained its ratio of sales over the N64, the PS2 continued to kick the shit out of the Xbox and Cube, and the positions in this generation will stay the same over the next four years unless two companies decide to get VERY stupid and the third decides to take some smart risks.
The three corporations in question are of course Apple, Ford and Hormel, the beloved makers of Spam.
800k is just the standard formula of December being double November, and 400k is expected to be in the neighborhood for Nov. November is double October, but the price drop is supposed to be making up the difference between the 121k PS3 did in October and the 200k sustained that it would need to hit 400k in November, statistically.
Basically it comes down to how much of an effect does the price drop really have. Long term we've already seen that its questionable, but short term its a definite boost.
The thing is that it's Michael Pachter. That means applying the standard formulae when it fits his long-term concept of PS3>360>Wii in sales by 2010, and coming up with some new formula when it doesn't. Any time the PS3 does well it's "as predicted" and when the Wii does well (all the time) it's a "momentary blip" and "will return to normal in 6 months."
He's the only video game analyst working in Friedman Units.
My prediction right here: PS3 sales will not be 800k. They will not be November x2. My entire reasoning for this is that there was a price drop in November and won't be one in December. Also the PS3 is still a little too expensive to be widely accepted as a reasonable Christmas gift.
I guess the SNES overtook the Genesis at one point, or something, I dunno. The Genesis was out way earlier, though, and the third, absurdly overpriced, high powered console of the time still didn't sell well, because the console in that position never does.
But the SNES and Genesis were neck-and-neck pretty much the whole time, so it's a silly comparison.
So what do you guys think Sony should do? I see a lot criticisms about many of their decisions (but let's face it, some of them were really bad), so it might be interesting to see what you guys think they should do.
So what do you guys think Sony should do? I see a lot criticisms about many of their decisions (but let's face it, some of them were really bad), so it might be interesting to see what you guys think they should do.
Like I said in a previous thread (or perhaps it was this one), if I had a Delorean, a flux capacitor, and some plutonium, maybe I'd be able to fix things, but if somebody put me in charge of Sony right now, today, I'd probably just see how much money I could embezzle before getting fired.
Oh, and I'd sell off Fumito Ueda's team and IP to Nintendo, just for shits and/or giggles.
However, the SNES had some advantages that the PS3 didn't have: 1st, quite possibly the best early software lineups of any game system ever and 2nd, substantially better graphics than the competition and 3rd, a comparable price tag.
However, the SNES had some advantages that the PS3 didn't have: 1st, quite possibly the best early software lineups of any game system ever and 2nd, substantially better graphics than the competition and 3rd, a comparable price tag.
The graphical improvement wasn't really that noticeable until DKC came along.
Now, the Neo-Geo had some substantially better graphics, but I think I remember it costing something like 599 US DOLLARS.
here's my amateur analysis of the video game industry:
please don't take any of this too seriously. I'm sitting in the library, studying for finals, and bored out of my mind. I decided to take a short break by writing up my thoughts on future video game sales. I am a pathetic creature who only asks for some empathy amidst the debilitating ordeal that is finals.
2008 will be a telling year for the wii. though it's been fortunate enough to have established a large userbase, software sales are mediocre at best. the wii has the most likelihood of slowing down, if only because it's selling so well at the moment. If software doesn't pick up, more and more devs might bail or only put the minimal amount of effort for wii games. But this is all pretty much common sense. Either the wii continues as it is or it goes down. Considering the supply constraint, there's hardly any room for it to go up, and it would absurd for sales to continue as they are for another whole year. Possible? Of course. The wii did it in 2007, it could very well repeat the performance in 2008. But it just seems unlikely. If wiifit might be the extra push it needs but whether it'll get the job done has yet to be seen.
The ps3 will NOT catch up to the 360 in 2008. Sales will continue at the steady pace they have been over 2007 with little change overall. The ps3 appears to be closely following trends set by the 360 and there's no real reason to believe that trend will ever deviate. MGS4 will not be the ps3's saving grace. As big of a hit MGS will likely be, there's no reason to believe that it'll perform that much better than 360's heavy hitters have in the past. At this point, MGS would have to do for the PS3 substantially more than titles like GoW and Halo3 did combined for the 360 in order for the ps3 to make any strides towards closing the gap. Furthermore, the 360 will continue to release quality software that will pose as rife competition for all the big guns on the ps3. Software and hardware sales have never shown any long term direct correlation so late in the game. Software can bump up sales for a platform, and, in the short term, perhaps make the margin between 360 and ps3 sales smaller, but to think that software can stimulate enough interest to make up for a year's worth of lost sales is laughable. Something along those lines, to my knowledge, is unprecedented. Even Halo3, the god of all exclusives, did relatively poorly in terms of creating large scale hardware demand. The demand for wiis has, once again, outstripping the demand for the 360, despite the platform having the best selling title of the year. How can we expect MGS4, a game with much much smaller mainstream image, to do what Halo 3 couldn't?
As for 360 sales, they should also remain fairly steady. There's no relative reason why 360 sales would go down in the future, as quality software is primed to release all through 2008. Even if ps3 sales do rise, that does not mean that 360 sales will fall. Microsoft has an incredibly healthy market image right now. They're accepted by both the consumer and the software developer. Their best move would be to try to get a non-gimped 360 sku down to $250 as quickly as possible. It's likely nintendo will retaliate with their own price cut to $200 or perhaps even $180, but just because one product flourishes doesn't mean another necessarily suffers. A lower price for the 360 could lead to fantastic results. The same rule applies for the PS3, but there's no indication that such a move would suddenly jump PS3 demand considerably ahead of the 360. People might posit that the there is still plenty of playstation brand loyalty left in the consumer, but after more than a year of being on the market, that loyalty can't be depended on. Consumers live in the present, and they'll go with whatever product seems most appealing in the present.
[/rant]
now i wonder if anyone actually read any of that or reply...
wow, i'm really bored. back to studying for finals
So what do you guys think Sony should do? I see a lot criticisms about many of their decisions (but let's face it, some of them were really bad), so it might be interesting to see what you guys think they should do.
What I've been saying all along.
Drop the price.
What? They already did that, though!
Yeah I know. Drop it some more. If they really want to get out of this rut, the only way they can do it is by at least meeting the same price as their competitors. Being the most expensive is not going to help them.
However, the SNES had some advantages that the PS3 didn't have: 1st, quite possibly the best early software lineups of any game system ever and 2nd, substantially better graphics than the competition and 3rd, a comparable price tag.
The graphical improvement wasn't really that noticeable until DKC came along.
Now, the Neo-Geo had some substantially better graphics, but I think I remember it costing something like 599 US DOLLARS.
The AES debuted at Five Hundred and Ninety Nine US Dollars, and its games were often $200.
edit: it may have actually been $650, i cant remember exactly
But the AES, unlike the PS3, was targeted specifically at a niche market of gamers that specifically wanted the exact arcade experience at home with no substitutions/exceptions.
They designed, built, and marketing the system at that specific niche and nothing more.
And in doing so, the NeoGeo AES was a financial success for SNK. They went in knowing that they were shooting for a small market and they planned and financed accordingly, and came out profitable.
The PS3, on the other hand, is a financial craphole for Sony when selling hardware, and their initially excessive price was simply out of the range of the target market/demographic they were aiming for.
However, the SNES had some advantages that the PS3 didn't have: 1st, quite possibly the best early software lineups of any game system ever and 2nd, substantially better graphics than the competition and 3rd, a comparable price tag.
The graphical improvement wasn't really that noticeable until DKC came along.
Now, the Neo-Geo had some substantially better graphics, but I think I remember it costing something like 599 US DOLLARS.
The AES debuted at Five Hundred and Ninety Nine US Dollars, and its games were often $200.
But the AES, unlike the PS3, was targeted specifically at a niche market of gamers that specifically wanted the exact arcade experience at home with no substitutions/exceptions.
They designed, built, and marketing the system at that specific niche and nothing more.
And in doing so, the NeoGeo AES was a financial success for SNK. They went in knowing that they were shooting for a small market and they planned and financed accordingly, and came out profitable.
The PS3, on the other hand, is a financial craphole for Sony when selling hardware, and their initially excessive price was simply out of the range of the target market/demographic they were aiming for.
On the plus side, I bet it has a higher attach rate.
Posts
Is this really out of the realm of possibility? The 360 took off with Gears which is now considered its killer app. The PS3 has a few games coming next year that have been mentioned as possible killer apps for the system: LBP, MGS4, and Killzone 2. Catching the Wii sales rates... nah. Not next year. But catching up with the 360 is definately a possibility and anyone who doesnt think so needs to stop drinking the kool aid.
Not commenting on that 800000 prediction.
was ngai just sitting there nodding along. hes about as pro sony as pachter (but without the suck)
Except to catch up to the 360 it doesn't have to match it's sales, but exceed them, and put a large enough gap that it's able to make up for the 360's year advantage. And while I'll admit that the PS3 might have some games that some people may find slightly atractive, any sane person would agree that the 360 has a much larger library of A and AAA games because of, again, the 1 year advantage.
Bolded part made me laugh... in a good way.
Well that 1st year advantage is up dude and you can see this next year for the PS3 is going to be huge. Can MS keep up this frantic pace of AAA titles? They better if they want to keep their lead. I dont think the PS3 will pass the 360 next year, but I do believe it will close that gap by quite a bit.
How could a 1 year advantage expire? The 360 will always have a 1 year jump on the PS3 regardless of how old each is.
The PS3 is going to suffer quite a bit still. As developers (a) look at how much money they're not making because they're not on the Wii and (b) look at how much it's costing them to make games for the 360 and the PS3, they'll start to realize more and more that the only economical thing they can do is take their PS3 and 360 exclusives and make them multiplatform. If the PS3 and 360 libraries are nearly identical (except that the 360 has more games) and the 360 is cheaper then the PS3 has still got quite a rough row to hoe.
And the fact that the game library for both the 360 and the PS3 are almost identical as you said is a good thing for the PS3 since the 360 does in fact have that extra year... I would hope the 360 has more games with an extra year under its belt.
As for the Wii, its fundamentally different from the other 2. Games that are mulitplatform on the PS3/360 usually cannot be ported to the Wii. The Wii has a huge install base on its own, but the combined install base of the 360 and PS3 is larger. Also releasing a title on the Wii is no promise of huge success. There are alot of big Wii titles that arent selling as much as the huge install base would suggest.
With that said, I am predicting a price drop of some sort before the end of the 2008, I personally think late summer. This is based on the following pricing model of consoles that are behind:
North America (Gamecube)
* US$199.99 (November 18, 2001, Launch Price) (C$299.99)[16]
* US$149.99 (May 13, 2002) (C$229.99)
* US$99.99 (September 24, 2003)
North America (Xbox)
* US$299 (November 15, 2001, Launch Price) (C$449)
* US$199 (May 15, 2002) (C$299)
* US$179 (May 14, 2003) (C$249)
Price drop well within year 1 - Check
Non-effectiveness of drop 1 - Check
To catch the 360 by 2009, it has to sell 1.5 times the rate that it is now, starting immediately, and that is assuming that MS doesn't respond and the 360 sales remain constant. Very unlikely to happen, as any surge in sales due to further price cuts can very easily be matched by Microsoft at this point.
It's just not going to happen. Sony has dropped the ball on 2 major holiday seasons. Many key games are multiplatform, the most significant of which is probably GTA IV. People are quickly losing reasons to invest the extra cash for a PS3 when they can get a lot of other good stuff on the less expensive system.
If sony wants to catch up, I think, the only way they can do it is by matching the 360's price (at best), and undercutting the 360's price at worst.
edit: check out what DrMarioKart posted. Despite being significantly more powerful and having a lot of ports and a few significant exclusives, having a price cut really didn't help the oXbox at all, nor the GCN. While there may be some pent up demand for the PS3 at a reasonable price, a lot of the market that's willing to pay $400 for a console has been taken up already.
And that was when the oxbox matched the PS2's price; we're looking at a situation where the PS3 has price dropped multiple times in the first year and is still more expensive than its competition.
Steam ID: slashx000______Twitter: @bill_at_zeboyd______ Facebook: Zeboyd Games
So THAT'S how long they're intending on hemorrhaging money for. Good to know.
Again, to close the gap they have to sell more than the 360, and to close it by any reasonable amount, they have to sell significantly more, which is not going to happen. Sure, the big 2nd year titles are coming out, the problem is that they were supposed to be out now, and when they do come out, their sales will be muted because the holliday sales will be over. Also, while PS3 developers may be a bit more used to it in the 2nd year, it'll be the 3rd year for the 360 and they'll be able to get even more out of it tthan they could in the 2nd year.
Also, I'm not a Xbox fanboy by any means, never owned one, probably never will. It's just plain common sense that it's leading the PS3 and is going to continue to do so barring an act of god.
Include a Wii for free.
Nah, it might still be too expensive. They'd have to include the PS3 with the Wii instead.
The sales would skyrocket.
OK. How could they do it without going so deep into the red that it makes the huge costs of the original Xbox look good in comparison?
You ask the impossible!
No, they need Yoda.
Mwu could do it, but should he?
Don't give him any ideas!
Mwu probably could save the PS3. After all, any man who could survive the cold vacuum of space can handle the equally barren PS3 holiday '07 lineup.
I'll believe it when I see it.
Basically it comes down to how much of an effect does the price drop really have. Long term we've already seen that its questionable, but short term its a definite boost.
I just have a hard time seeing 800k. How much did the 360 do for December of last year?
Steam ID: slashx000______Twitter: @bill_at_zeboyd______ Facebook: Zeboyd Games
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=137693
Over one million.
Some fun stuff from that thread:
Oy, that Patcher.
Really, the only thing that is unpredictable about the vidja game business is who comes in first, second and third. What IS predictable is the fact that relative sales positions set during the first year all consoles are out don't change during the lifetime of the consoles. The PS's maintained its ratio of sales over the N64, the PS2 continued to kick the shit out of the Xbox and Cube, and the positions in this generation will stay the same over the next four years unless two companies decide to get VERY stupid and the third decides to take some smart risks.
The three corporations in question are of course Apple, Ford and Hormel, the beloved makers of Spam.
The thing is that it's Michael Pachter. That means applying the standard formulae when it fits his long-term concept of PS3>360>Wii in sales by 2010, and coming up with some new formula when it doesn't. Any time the PS3 does well it's "as predicted" and when the Wii does well (all the time) it's a "momentary blip" and "will return to normal in 6 months."
He's the only video game analyst working in Friedman Units.
My prediction right here: PS3 sales will not be 800k. They will not be November x2. My entire reasoning for this is that there was a price drop in November and won't be one in December. Also the PS3 is still a little too expensive to be widely accepted as a reasonable Christmas gift.
But the SNES and Genesis were neck-and-neck pretty much the whole time, so it's a silly comparison.
Like I said in a previous thread (or perhaps it was this one), if I had a Delorean, a flux capacitor, and some plutonium, maybe I'd be able to fix things, but if somebody put me in charge of Sony right now, today, I'd probably just see how much money I could embezzle before getting fired.
Oh, and I'd sell off Fumito Ueda's team and IP to Nintendo, just for shits and/or giggles.
Zeboyd Games Development Blog
Steam ID : rwb36, Twitter : Werezompire, Facebook : Zeboyd Games
The graphical improvement wasn't really that noticeable until DKC came along.
Now, the Neo-Geo had some substantially better graphics, but I think I remember it costing something like 599 US DOLLARS.
please don't take any of this too seriously. I'm sitting in the library, studying for finals, and bored out of my mind. I decided to take a short break by writing up my thoughts on future video game sales. I am a pathetic creature who only asks for some empathy amidst the debilitating ordeal that is finals.
2008 will be a telling year for the wii. though it's been fortunate enough to have established a large userbase, software sales are mediocre at best. the wii has the most likelihood of slowing down, if only because it's selling so well at the moment. If software doesn't pick up, more and more devs might bail or only put the minimal amount of effort for wii games. But this is all pretty much common sense. Either the wii continues as it is or it goes down. Considering the supply constraint, there's hardly any room for it to go up, and it would absurd for sales to continue as they are for another whole year. Possible? Of course. The wii did it in 2007, it could very well repeat the performance in 2008. But it just seems unlikely. If wiifit might be the extra push it needs but whether it'll get the job done has yet to be seen.
The ps3 will NOT catch up to the 360 in 2008. Sales will continue at the steady pace they have been over 2007 with little change overall. The ps3 appears to be closely following trends set by the 360 and there's no real reason to believe that trend will ever deviate. MGS4 will not be the ps3's saving grace. As big of a hit MGS will likely be, there's no reason to believe that it'll perform that much better than 360's heavy hitters have in the past. At this point, MGS would have to do for the PS3 substantially more than titles like GoW and Halo3 did combined for the 360 in order for the ps3 to make any strides towards closing the gap. Furthermore, the 360 will continue to release quality software that will pose as rife competition for all the big guns on the ps3. Software and hardware sales have never shown any long term direct correlation so late in the game. Software can bump up sales for a platform, and, in the short term, perhaps make the margin between 360 and ps3 sales smaller, but to think that software can stimulate enough interest to make up for a year's worth of lost sales is laughable. Something along those lines, to my knowledge, is unprecedented. Even Halo3, the god of all exclusives, did relatively poorly in terms of creating large scale hardware demand. The demand for wiis has, once again, outstripping the demand for the 360, despite the platform having the best selling title of the year. How can we expect MGS4, a game with much much smaller mainstream image, to do what Halo 3 couldn't?
As for 360 sales, they should also remain fairly steady. There's no relative reason why 360 sales would go down in the future, as quality software is primed to release all through 2008. Even if ps3 sales do rise, that does not mean that 360 sales will fall. Microsoft has an incredibly healthy market image right now. They're accepted by both the consumer and the software developer. Their best move would be to try to get a non-gimped 360 sku down to $250 as quickly as possible. It's likely nintendo will retaliate with their own price cut to $200 or perhaps even $180, but just because one product flourishes doesn't mean another necessarily suffers. A lower price for the 360 could lead to fantastic results. The same rule applies for the PS3, but there's no indication that such a move would suddenly jump PS3 demand considerably ahead of the 360. People might posit that the there is still plenty of playstation brand loyalty left in the consumer, but after more than a year of being on the market, that loyalty can't be depended on. Consumers live in the present, and they'll go with whatever product seems most appealing in the present.
[/rant]
now i wonder if anyone actually read any of that or reply...
wow, i'm really bored. back to studying for finals
What I've been saying all along.
Drop the price.
What? They already did that, though!
Yeah I know. Drop it some more. If they really want to get out of this rut, the only way they can do it is by at least meeting the same price as their competitors. Being the most expensive is not going to help them.
Steam ID: slashx000______Twitter: @bill_at_zeboyd______ Facebook: Zeboyd Games
DS owns all, becomes PS2 of the next generation. Handheld gamers exult.
PSP can come along, but only if it's software sales pick up some.
Platinum FC: 2880 3245 5111
The AES debuted at Five Hundred and Ninety Nine US Dollars, and its games were often $200.
edit: it may have actually been $650, i cant remember exactly
But the AES, unlike the PS3, was targeted specifically at a niche market of gamers that specifically wanted the exact arcade experience at home with no substitutions/exceptions.
They designed, built, and marketing the system at that specific niche and nothing more.
And in doing so, the NeoGeo AES was a financial success for SNK. They went in knowing that they were shooting for a small market and they planned and financed accordingly, and came out profitable.
The PS3, on the other hand, is a financial craphole for Sony when selling hardware, and their initially excessive price was simply out of the range of the target market/demographic they were aiming for.
Steam ID: slashx000______Twitter: @bill_at_zeboyd______ Facebook: Zeboyd Games
On the plus side, I bet it has a higher attach rate.