Jesus christ, I don't want to imagine what'll happen when MGP2G comes out with the new PSP:
JihadJesus: Uh, that's not even close to FFvsXIII. FFXIII and FFvsXIII take place on completely different worlds, the only thing they share is the 'Fabula Nova Crystallis' mythology.
Time to take all the fun out of NPD Day tomorrow. Whatever plans you cancelled so you could sit around the computer tomorrow eating microwaved popcorn and F5ing 3 separate gaming sites, un-cancel them. Here's a breakdown of our predictions. Guaranteed to exactly reflect the NPD report and assuredly more accurate than any other estimate on the web or your money back.
Participants: 11
(Guek, slash000, MistaCreepy, The_Scarab, bigwah, Jean, toxk_02, bombcar, Dr. Mario Kart, RainbowDespair, Varcayn) if I somehow missed you let me know.
Unfortunately with only 11 people there isn't a lot of wiggle room. So instead of actually looking for outliers in the full range I simply dropped the lowest and highest predictions to make the expected range.
No, Love Is Not All We Need And Please Take Off The Rose-Tinted Glasses Award (Most optimistic): bigwah - 11 million total consoles (next closest was 790k away)
Paints His Nails Black Between Writing Updates of His Depressing Life on LiveJournal Award (Most pessimistic): The_Scarab - 7.07 million total consoles (next closest was 730k away)
Average: 8.6 million total consoles
Maybe it's the time of the year but there is a wide-range of expectations. Most notably with the Nintendo consoles and to some extent the 360. Sony made predictions a little easier by releasing some internal shipped numbers so all those predictions are fairly tight.
I can only speculate behind the motives regarding the DS predictions but I would guess the question is whether demand is already super-crazy and if it can go up any more. The DS did 1.53 million in Nov (4 weeks), and at the low-end of the spectrum one party predicted the weekly sales for the DS would drop 16% in Dec. while another predicted 0% change. On the other end we had predictions of 83% and 93% increases in weekly sales. Pretty much as wide a range as one can get.
As for the Wii I'm certain the issue is supply; could Nintendo find enough Wiis laying around their warehouse? Some said no - the lowest two predicted modest increases in weekly sales of 6% and 14%, atypical of Dec. However our two highest percentages were only 63% and 80% increases, with the rest falling between 14% and 63%. The usual Dec. rule is 100% increases (over Nov.) across the board so everyone expressed some doubts about Wii supply, just to varying degrees.
I won't actually be here when the numbers arrive but I'll have prediction results up sometime soon afterwards. Don't let the suspense get to you, I'm sure you did fine. *muffled snickering*
I'll tell you one thing. Demand wasn't a problem for the DS during the holidays - SUPPLY was. Little suckers were sold out at my store and, from what customers told me, just about everywhere else.
Capcom's expectations for this game were planned to be somewhat moderate in sales; I think they were expecting it to do 250k world wide.
Nope. 640k worldwide. Not that it really matters because UC is going to easily pass this number.
AH! Holy shit, you're right. Not sure why I thought the expectation was 250k. Must have been some other game..
Anyway, I found this, from Capcom:
This was posted in June 07, 8 months after the Wii's release. They expected to pull 420k sales of RE4:WE, and 620k sales of Umbrella Chronicles. Well, they thoroughly destroyed the 420k for RE4:WE.
Anyway, with regard to Umbrella Chronicles, I easily expect it to hit 250k in the USA if it hit as much in Japan. That would leave the rest of the world to clean up the 120k of expected sales for Capcom. A reasonable and very reachable goal.
I see they've got some high expectations of DMC4. I guess it's not out of the question though. How truly popular is DMC these days, anyway? Anyone know how well DMC3 did?
Wikipedia has Devil May Cry 3 pegged at 1.3 million copies sold. 1.7 million for Devil May Cry 4 is probably feasible, particularly when you consider that it's on two platforms.
But its on 2 platforms that totaled, wont have a quarter of the install base that DMC 3 sat on when it acheived that 1.7M
Maybe I'm wrong on this, but isn't DMC a more popular series in Japan? If that's the region where DMC's bread is butter neither console has much of a presence there.
I'd rather they focused on a new RE4-esque game for Wii instead of concetrating efforts on a downgraded port.
Oh good God yes. I'd be happy with a side-story game specifically for the Wii, since I've pretty much given up on caring about RE's story or upholding canon. Make it a full game with Ada, even - just make it epic and awesome like RE4.
Stick the remnants of Clover on it (like they did with RE:UC) and nothing but good can result.
Wikipedia has Devil May Cry 3 pegged at 1.3 million copies sold. 1.7 million for Devil May Cry 4 is probably feasible, particularly when you consider that it's on two platforms.
If Assassin's Creed can sell 2.5 million copies in a month, 1.7 million copies for DMC4 doesn't seem too far fetched.
I don't know.. A's Creed seems to be the exception more than the rule.
On the one hand, DMC3 sold 1.3M copies... but it was on an installed base of more than 100 million PS2 owners. Whereas DMC4 will be selling to.. what, 18 Million or something? 20 Million?
Secondly, A's Creed was hyped to fucking hell for almost a full year.
Devil May Cry 4.. seems like it should be a good game in a series that apparently sells pretty well. But.. I don't know. 1.8 million... It's like it would have to sell over a million on the 360 and nearly a million on the PS3. That seems pretty unlikely.. DMC4 is big but I don't think it's 1.8M big...
Dr Mario KartGames DealerAustin, TXRegistered Userregular
edited January 2008
I havent noticed a marketing blitz to the same caliber as Assassin's Creed. Its not farfetched, but it could just as well end up as a multiplatform Ratchet & Clank. R&C sold right up there with the DMCs last generation.
Strangely enough, the PS3 version is ranked at 3 hundred something on Amazon at the current moment, and the 360 version is just shy of 900. Assassins Creed for 360, is #29.
I think DMC4 will definitely break a million... but 1.8 seems far-fetched. I thought DMC3 was received poorly?
I'm interested in the Wii numbers... how much has Nintendo been stockpiling? I know we've discussed it to death, but I really want to see the NPD numbers.
Well also think about how many other games were out for the PS2. And also it was near the end of the PS2's life. This will be the first "next gen" DMC... and its not going up against a whole lot of competition. 1.8 million sounds about right to me.
MistaCreepy on
PS3: MistaCreepy::Steam: MistaCreepy::360: Dead and I don't feel like paying to fix it.
So.. Have there been any games to sell ~1.8 million on the PS3+360 besides A's Creed and COD4?
I can't think of any.
Maybe Guitar Hero 3 will break 1.8M between the 360 and PS3.
I'm starting to realize just how ambitious 1.8 Million is for something that hasn't been constantly shoved down our throats at every marketing moment for almost a year.
Dr Mario KartGames DealerAustin, TXRegistered Userregular
edited January 2008
How many people are going to jump straight into 4 that didnt buy any of the others? Normally you have some sort of series attrition going on, even if they're not particularly related games.
I dont think very much of that PS2 base has moved to the PS3 yet.
How many people are going to jump straight into 4 that didnt buy any of the others? Normally you have some sort of series attrition going on, even if they're not particularly related games.
It has been happening to the DMC series. The first game sold either over two million or over four million copies and was released in 2001, the second sold 1.7 million copies, and the third sold 1.3 million copies. I guess they just hope that 2 just sucked and the third was released at a bad time or something.
Fans took a liking to the cocky antics of Devil May Cry’s protagonist Dante, and the action the game provided was very intense. With over 4 million copies sold, Devil May Cry was one of the games that really put the PlayStation 2 on the map early in its career.
So.. Have there been any games to sell ~1.8 million on the PS3+360 besides A's Creed and COD4?
I can't think of any.
Maybe Guitar Hero 3 will break 1.8M between the 360 and PS3.
I'm starting to realize just how ambitious 1.8 Million is for something that hasn't been constantly shoved down our throats at every marketing moment for almost a year.
I assume you mean multiplatform only, because I can think of a 360 game that sold over that in one day.
So.. Have there been any games to sell ~1.8 million on the PS3+360 besides A's Creed and COD4?
I can't think of any.
Maybe Guitar Hero 3 will break 1.8M between the 360 and PS3.
I'm starting to realize just how ambitious 1.8 Million is for something that hasn't been constantly shoved down our throats at every marketing moment for almost a year.
I assume you mean multiplatform only, because I can think of a 360 game that sold over that in one day.
You assume correctly.
I dunno. If DMC4 had been having more hype, I'd say it'd be far more likely to hit 1.8M. But the hype and marketing level of the game hasn't been anything near the level of Gears, COD, Mass Effect, A's Creed, or even Lost Planet (which had a marketing budget of ~8M dollars).
Still, if they advertise the hell out of the thing I can see it hitting 1M on the 360.. and maybe 800k on the PS3.. worldwide..
Let's be realistic here and just say that DMC4 achieving those numbers is not likely. Devil May Cry is a pretty hardcore series, and I think it enjoys some popularity because it and Onimusha were the premiere action games for the PS2. But, just like Onimusha, I get a feeling that many gamers have moved on and the name doesn't mean what it used to.
Or maybe it's just me extrapolating my views onto the rest of the world.
Yeah Unco, that Monst Hunter number is ginormous. I heard about the MH PSP thing earlier today, too.
What is MGP2G though? Is that some new Monster Hunter thing, as well?
Monster Hunter Portable 2 G. It's basically an expansion on MHP2, kind of like the MGS series has the Substance/Subsistence editions.
Anyway, we've had the Famitsu numbers but here's the top 30 Media Create sales (1/7 - 1/13):
01./02. [WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 90,000 / 1,101,000
02./01. [NDS] Mario Party DS (Nintendo) - 43,000 / 1,527,000
03./03. [WII] Wii Sports (Nintendo) - 33,000 / 2,658,000
04./04. [NDS] Final Fantasy IV (Square-Enix) - 32,000 / 537,000
05./14. [PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2nd (Capcom) - 26,000 / 1,511,000
06./08. [NDS] Prof. Layton and Pandora's Box (Level 5) - 25,000 / 708,000
07./07. [NDS] Dragon Quest IV (Square-Enix) - 25,000 / 1,143,000
08./06. [WII] Wii Play (Nintendo) - 25,000 / 2,155,000
09./09. [WII] Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games (Nintendo) - 22,000 / 468,000
10./11. [NDS] Mario Kart DS (Nintendo) - 17,000 / 2,908,000
11./05. [WII] Super Mario Galaxy (Nintendo)
12./10. [WII] Mario Party 8 (Nintendo)
13./12. [NDS] Rune Factory 2 (Marvelous Entertainment)
14./38. [PS3] Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (Activision)
15./16. [PSP] Star Ocean 1: First Departure (Square-Enix)
16./13. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo)
17./25. [NDS] Prof. Layton and the Curious Village (Level 5)
18./30. [NDS] Kanji Brain Test 2.5M (IE Institute)
19./18. [PS2] Super Robot Wars OG Gaiden (Banpresto)
20./20. [NDS] Animal Crossing Wild World (Nintendo)
21./21. [PS2] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2008 (Konami)
22./00. [360] Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (Activision)
23./35. [NDS] My Housekeeping Diary (Nintendo)
24./00. [WII] Mario Strikers Charged (Nintendo)
25./24. [NDS] Tales of Innocence (Bandai-Namco)
26./26. [NDS] More Brain Age (Nintendo)
27./33. [PS3] Gran Turismo 5 Prologue (Sony)
28./28. [NDS] Nep League DS (Jaleco)
29./37. [PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2008 (Konami)
30./31. [WII] Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles (Capcom)
NDS - 14
WII - 8
PS3 - 3
PS2 - 2
PSP - 2
360 - 1
And before I forget to mention it, Scarab, can you post Media Create sales in the OP as well? You may need to update it weekly but it's nice to be able to jump straight to the OP to check numbers rather than go back and look at page 67 or whatever.
Well, keep in mind that Capcom's Dead Rising & Lost Planet both sold over a million copies and those were 360 exclusives and new properties. Also keep in mind that Devil May Cry 4's target audience and the XBox 360 demographic are very similar. Throw in a decent amount of hype, the fact that this is the first next-gen installment in a popular series, and the fact that it can pick up a few extra sales on the PS3 and really, I'm thinking that 1.8 million figure is looking more and more attainable. Not instantly, of course, but by the end of 2008, I'd be surprised if it hadn't reached that figure.
So.. Have there been any games to sell ~1.8 million on the PS3+360 besides A's Creed and COD4?
I can't think of any.
Maybe Guitar Hero 3 will break 1.8M between the 360 and PS3.
I'm starting to realize just how ambitious 1.8 Million is for something that hasn't been constantly shoved down our throats at every marketing moment for almost a year.
I assume you mean multiplatform only, because I can think of a 360 game that sold over that in one day.
Posts
JihadJesus: Uh, that's not even close to FFvsXIII. FFXIII and FFvsXIII take place on completely different worlds, the only thing they share is the 'Fabula Nova Crystallis' mythology.
What is MGP2G though? Is that some new Monster Hunter thing, as well?
Steam ID: slashx000______Twitter: @bill_at_zeboyd______ Facebook: Zeboyd Games
Participants: 11
(Guek, slash000, MistaCreepy, The_Scarab, bigwah, Jean, toxk_02, bombcar, Dr. Mario Kart, RainbowDespair, Varcayn) if I somehow missed you let me know.
Our Average:
[360] 1,436,727
[NDS] 2,575,091
[PS2] 948,273
[PS3] 846,818
[PSP] 1,145,818
[WII] 1,650,545
Expected Range (Full Range):
[360] 1,200,000 - 1,600,000 (1,100,000 - 2,000,000)
[NDS] 1,900,000 - 3,500,000 (1,600,000 - 3,700,000)
[PS2] 890,000 - 1,100,000 (560,000 - 1,200,000)
[PS3] 800,000 - 910,000 (610,000 - 920,000)
[PSP] 1,001,000 - 1,300,000 (800,000 -1,350,000)
[WII] 1,400,000 - 2,000,000 (1,300,000 - 2,200,000)
Unfortunately with only 11 people there isn't a lot of wiggle room. So instead of actually looking for outliers in the full range I simply dropped the lowest and highest predictions to make the expected range.
For reference:
M. Pachter's Predictions
[360] 1,250,000
[NDS] 2,450,000
[PS2] 975,000
[PS3] 875,000
[PSP] 1,075,000
[WII] 1,450,000
TheSimExchange.com's Predictions
[360] 1,450,000
[NDS] 2,900,000
[PS2] XXX
[PS3] 854,000
[PSP] 1,030,000
[WII] 1,730,000
No, Love Is Not All We Need And Please Take Off The Rose-Tinted Glasses Award (Most optimistic): bigwah - 11 million total consoles (next closest was 790k away)
Paints His Nails Black Between Writing Updates of His Depressing Life on LiveJournal Award (Most pessimistic): The_Scarab - 7.07 million total consoles (next closest was 730k away)
Average: 8.6 million total consoles
Maybe it's the time of the year but there is a wide-range of expectations. Most notably with the Nintendo consoles and to some extent the 360. Sony made predictions a little easier by releasing some internal shipped numbers so all those predictions are fairly tight.
I can only speculate behind the motives regarding the DS predictions but I would guess the question is whether demand is already super-crazy and if it can go up any more. The DS did 1.53 million in Nov (4 weeks), and at the low-end of the spectrum one party predicted the weekly sales for the DS would drop 16% in Dec. while another predicted 0% change. On the other end we had predictions of 83% and 93% increases in weekly sales. Pretty much as wide a range as one can get.
As for the Wii I'm certain the issue is supply; could Nintendo find enough Wiis laying around their warehouse? Some said no - the lowest two predicted modest increases in weekly sales of 6% and 14%, atypical of Dec. However our two highest percentages were only 63% and 80% increases, with the rest falling between 14% and 63%. The usual Dec. rule is 100% increases (over Nov.) across the board so everyone expressed some doubts about Wii supply, just to varying degrees.
I won't actually be here when the numbers arrive but I'll have prediction results up sometime soon afterwards. Don't let the suspense get to you, I'm sure you did fine. *muffled snickering*
Nope. 640k worldwide. Not that it really matters because UC is going to easily pass this number.
AH! Holy shit, you're right. Not sure why I thought the expectation was 250k. Must have been some other game..
Anyway, I found this, from Capcom:
This was posted in June 07, 8 months after the Wii's release. They expected to pull 420k sales of RE4:WE, and 620k sales of Umbrella Chronicles. Well, they thoroughly destroyed the 420k for RE4:WE.
Anyway, with regard to Umbrella Chronicles, I easily expect it to hit 250k in the USA if it hit as much in Japan. That would leave the rest of the world to clean up the 120k of expected sales for Capcom. A reasonable and very reachable goal.
I see they've got some high expectations of DMC4. I guess it's not out of the question though. How truly popular is DMC these days, anyway? Anyone know how well DMC3 did?
Steam ID: slashx000______Twitter: @bill_at_zeboyd______ Facebook: Zeboyd Games
Zeboyd Games Development Blog
Steam ID : rwb36, Twitter : Werezompire, Facebook : Zeboyd Games
edit: never mind DMC3 only sold 353k in Japan.
Decent joke, and we can figure out the old men here by seeing who gets it.
I give it a :^:
Well done.
My dream is that they do this for RE2.
Bill Gates never said actually said it though, so no, it wasn't a Bill Gates joke.
Good points.
Steam ID: slashx000______Twitter: @bill_at_zeboyd______ Facebook: Zeboyd Games
Zeboyd Games Development Blog
Steam ID : rwb36, Twitter : Werezompire, Facebook : Zeboyd Games
They are two completely different games. If DMC2 can sell that amount, it is feasible that DMC4 can sell 1.7 mil.
I don't know.. A's Creed seems to be the exception more than the rule.
On the one hand, DMC3 sold 1.3M copies... but it was on an installed base of more than 100 million PS2 owners. Whereas DMC4 will be selling to.. what, 18 Million or something? 20 Million?
Secondly, A's Creed was hyped to fucking hell for almost a full year.
Devil May Cry 4.. seems like it should be a good game in a series that apparently sells pretty well. But.. I don't know. 1.8 million... It's like it would have to sell over a million on the 360 and nearly a million on the PS3. That seems pretty unlikely.. DMC4 is big but I don't think it's 1.8M big...
Steam ID: slashx000______Twitter: @bill_at_zeboyd______ Facebook: Zeboyd Games
Strangely enough, the PS3 version is ranked at 3 hundred something on Amazon at the current moment, and the 360 version is just shy of 900. Assassins Creed for 360, is #29.
Still, I think 1.8M for DMC4 is... possible but unlikely.
Steam ID: slashx000______Twitter: @bill_at_zeboyd______ Facebook: Zeboyd Games
I'm interested in the Wii numbers... how much has Nintendo been stockpiling? I know we've discussed it to death, but I really want to see the NPD numbers.
I can't think of any.
Maybe Guitar Hero 3 will break 1.8M between the 360 and PS3.
I'm starting to realize just how ambitious 1.8 Million is for something that hasn't been constantly shoved down our throats at every marketing moment for almost a year.
Steam ID: slashx000______Twitter: @bill_at_zeboyd______ Facebook: Zeboyd Games
I dont think very much of that PS2 base has moved to the PS3 yet.
It has been happening to the DMC series. The first game sold either over two million or over four million copies and was released in 2001, the second sold 1.7 million copies, and the third sold 1.3 million copies. I guess they just hope that 2 just sucked and the third was released at a bad time or something.
http://palgn.com.au/article.php?id=4737
http://steamcommunity.com/id/Cykstfc
You assume correctly.
I dunno. If DMC4 had been having more hype, I'd say it'd be far more likely to hit 1.8M. But the hype and marketing level of the game hasn't been anything near the level of Gears, COD, Mass Effect, A's Creed, or even Lost Planet (which had a marketing budget of ~8M dollars).
Still, if they advertise the hell out of the thing I can see it hitting 1M on the 360.. and maybe 800k on the PS3.. worldwide..
Steam ID: slashx000______Twitter: @bill_at_zeboyd______ Facebook: Zeboyd Games
Or maybe it's just me extrapolating my views onto the rest of the world.
I'm right either way.
Monster Hunter Portable 2 G. It's basically an expansion on MHP2, kind of like the MGS series has the Substance/Subsistence editions.
Anyway, we've had the Famitsu numbers but here's the top 30 Media Create sales (1/7 - 1/13):
And before I forget to mention it, Scarab, can you post Media Create sales in the OP as well? You may need to update it weekly but it's nice to be able to jump straight to the OP to check numbers rather than go back and look at page 67 or whatever.
Zeboyd Games Development Blog
Steam ID : rwb36, Twitter : Werezompire, Facebook : Zeboyd Games
Steam ID: slashx000______Twitter: @bill_at_zeboyd______ Facebook: Zeboyd Games
I have no clue what you're talking about... ;-)
i mean, i do need my daily recommended dose of cheesecake now and then...
steam | Dokkan: 868846562
Madden.
FIFA.
Loads of games.