And i bet mario kart Wii sells a lot better than Brawl
Why? For Gamecube Smash was the better selling of two until the end of its life cycle. Saying either is going to sell "a lot" better than the other I don't get.
Erm....doesn't Wii get Brawl and Wii Fit next year?
Yes, and they may both come out a month apart. They'll keep the Wii pace going but they're not going to keep up with GTA, that's a whole other monster especially when paired with the '360 Game of the Month Club'.
I looked at my numbers again and you two were indeed tied, although I fudged up my numbers (stupid excel). Corrected numbers:
Without PS2 -> Total units off
jean -> 477,000
Wyborn -> 486,000
bigwah -> 518,000
slash000 -> 602,000
Dr Mario Kart -> 602,000
Scarab -> 797,000
Xagarath -> 964,000
Urahonky -> 1,234,000
Including PS2 Total units off
Dr Mario Kart -> 697,000
jean -> 481,000
Urahonky -> 1,450,000
Sorry, I have to defend my crown from the last prediction round!
She added, "4 of the 5 best-selling accessories for the month were Wii controllers. The Wii Zapper, which debuted in November, sold 232K units. The second-best selling accessory for the month was the PS3 wireless controller at 282K units.
Wii Zapper is off to a fast start.
Lifetime to Date:
360 GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK - ~860K
WII GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK - ~710K
This is a lot closer than I thought it would be, and if this month's pace continues the Wii could be on top by next month.
Next month's hardware is a tough call. Nintendo would have to really dig deep to find the consoles necessary to match what 360 is going to sell. We should try a more formal estimating system (like in October) for December's sales.
She added, "4 of the 5 best-selling accessories for the month were Wii controllers. The Wii Zapper, which debuted in November, sold 232K units. The second-best selling accessory for the month was the PS3 wireless controller at 282K units.
Wii Zapper is off to a fast start.
Any idea if Wii Play is counted towards accessory sales?
She added, "4 of the 5 best-selling accessories for the month were Wii controllers. The Wii Zapper, which debuted in November, sold 232K units. The second-best selling accessory for the month was the PS3 wireless controller at 282K units.
Wii Zapper is off to a fast start.
Any idea if Wii Play is counted towards accessory sales?
Counts towards software, it's been charting in the Top 10 regularly. I'm not sure if it's double counted in accessories but I would doubt it, anyone can just take the Wii Play number and get a remote total. I think it's at around 3 million in the US.
Which is honestly quite debatable. Both are accessories packaged with demo games, though I guess the distinction is Wii Play is a slightly more robust demo (8 or 9 activities vs. Crossbow Training's 4).
EDIT: though you know what, she said there were 4 Wii controllers in the top 5. So that could be
1. Wii Zapper
2. Standard Wii Remote
3. Standard Nunchuk
4. Standard Classic Controller
I guess those last two would fall into the "Wii controller" category. Kinda surprising that the classic controller would beat out a 360 controller but I have no idea how the accessories market looks. Something else for fanboys to get riled up about!
toxk_02 on
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Dr Mario KartGames DealerAustin, TXRegistered Userregular
# Super Smash Bros. (4.89 million approximately)
# Super Smash Bros. Melee (6 million)
# Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (15 million)
# Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (12 million)
# Grand Theft Auto III (12 million)
Seriously people. Nintendo may have a larger/comparable install base this time, but don't kid yourselves. These numbers aren't even close.
6 M on a 20 M userbase versus up to 15 M on a 100M+ one for the PS2 and 25M for XBOX (since it is a multiplatform title). The raw numbers dont have to be close. Attach rate/legs + Marketshare are still important.
The combined 360/PS3 pool when GTA 4 comes out might be something in the neighborhood of 35-40M. The GTA series has always been one of single player gameplay, while the big sellers on the HD platforms so far have been multiplayer.
Look at Ratchet & Clank. That has historically been serious business for the PS2 (the original sold 2.5M), but its tanking HARD on the PS3.
Though I personally think GTA4 will get pushed back more, into Q3 or Q4.
# Super Smash Bros. (4.89 million approximately)
# Super Smash Bros. Melee (6 million)
# Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (15 million)
# Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (12 million)
# Grand Theft Auto III (12 million)
Seriously people. Nintendo may have a larger/comparable install base this time, but don't kid yourselves. These numbers aren't even close.
6 M on a 20 M userbase versus up to 15 M on a 100M+ one for the PS2 and 25M for XBOX (since it is a multiplatform title). The raw numbers dont have to be close. Attach rate/legs + Marketshare are still important.
The combined 360/PS3 pool when GTA 4 comes out might be something in the neighborhood of 35M. The GTA series has always been one of single player gameplay, while the big sellers on the HD platforms so far have been multiplayer.
Look at Ratchet & Clank. That has historically been serious business for the PS2 (the original sold 2.5M), but its tanking HARD on the PS3.
Though I personally think GTA4 will get pushed back more, into Q3 or Q4.
The thing is, GTA SOLD systems. You can say "So did Smash Brothers", but apparently it didn't do it near as well.
The userbase is a function of these games being on that platform. So attach rates are of questionable use.
And R&C is doing shitty on the PS3, but that's the PS3. GTA4 is hitting the 360. You know, the console that boasts attach rates that seem ludicrous.
shryke on
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Dr Mario KartGames DealerAustin, TXRegistered Userregular
edited December 2007
I dont think we can use the PS2 to extrapolate sales for the 360. Too many different variables.
GTA3 was a big system seller for the PS2 in the west. 360 already has its own western system sellers. GTA4 isnt going to sell more systems than say, Halo 3, and the Halo 3 bump has already come and gone.
Attach rates are certainly going to be powerful, but I still have my doubts about how far that will take a primarily single player game on the 360. Its clearly a different kind of animal than the PS2 was. It looks like the highest selling single player oriented 360 game is Oblivion at 3 million, which includes the PC version.
I dont think we can use the PS2 to extrapolate sales for the 360. Too many different variables.
GTA3 was a big system seller for the PS2 in the west. 360 already has its own western system sellers. GTA4 isnt going to sell more systems than say, Halo 3, and the Halo 3 bump has already come and gone.
Attach rates are certainly going to be powerful, but I still have my doubts about how far that will take a primarily single player game on the 360. Its clearly a different kind of animal than the PS2 was. It looks like the highest selling single player oriented 360 game is Oblivion at 3 million, which includes the PC version.
I still think GTA is gonna post numbers that blow Brawl away.
Smash Brothers has a sizable and loyal following, but I don't think it comes close to touching the popularity and commercial weight of GTA. Your talking about the game that sits near the top of the list of "Games people who've never played a video game in their lives will know".
shryke on
0
Dr Mario KartGames DealerAustin, TXRegistered Userregular
edited December 2007
I think you're not giving enough credit to the commercial weight and popularity of the PS2.
I think the end-generation marketshare is going to have a lot of influence on this particular fight.
I certainly expect initial numbers to favor GTA by a wide margin though.
I think that GTA will definately do better, especially with the 360's rediculous ability to sell games, bur I doubt it will "blow away" brawl as much as you think it will, especially since nintendo games tend to start a bit slowly but sell well over time. GTA will probably have significantly higher day/week one sales, but in the end only end up a few million more in lifetime sales, especially since the attach rates will be a lot more comperable this time around
By the end of this generation GTA4 will hae twice as many sales as Brawl. If you think otherwise, even when taking into account the install bases and quality of the games, then you dont fully comprehend just how BIG a franchise GTA is.
The_Scarab on
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Dr Mario KartGames DealerAustin, TXRegistered Userregular
edited December 2007
To be fair, I like cheering for hopeless underdogs. Its too bad I dont have a PS3 :P
HenroidMexican kicked from Immigration ThreadCentrism is Racism :3Registered Userregular
edited December 2007
As much as I personally look forward to Brawl far more than the next GTA, I understand the fact that GTA appeals to a far greater amount of gamers than Smash Bros. That's fine with me. I'll have both.
# Super Smash Bros. (4.89 million approximately)
# Super Smash Bros. Melee (6 million)
# Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (15 million)
# Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (12 million)
# Grand Theft Auto III (12 million)
Seriously people. Nintendo may have a larger/comparable install base this time, but don't kid yourselves. These numbers aren't even close.
6 M on a 20 M userbase versus up to 15 M on a 100M+ one for the PS2 and 25M for XBOX (since it is a multiplatform title). The raw numbers dont have to be close. Attach rate/legs + Marketshare are still important.
The combined 360/PS3 pool when GTA 4 comes out might be something in the neighborhood of 35-40M. The GTA series has always been one of single player gameplay, while the big sellers on the HD platforms so far have been multiplayer.
Look at Ratchet & Clank. That has historically been serious business for the PS2 (the original sold 2.5M), but its tanking HARD on the PS3.
Though I personally think GTA4 will get pushed back more, into Q3 or Q4.
Actually, those numbers are from just the PS2 version, the Xbox and PC versions add another 2-3 million onto each of them. And fyi, the combined 360 and PS3 install base at GTA4's release will be a lot higher than the PS2's was at GTA3's release.
Secondly, R&C is a god-damn ridiculous example. R&C games have never sold really well at release, they just end up selling a lot more down the line (particularly with the greatest hits/platinum releases). Oh and it's not tanking on the PS3.
Judging by people's comments, most of them think 67k (140k LTD) to be a massive tank.
This is the record of R&C's first months (taken from 1UP):
Ratchet & Clank (November 4, 2002) -- 112,000 units
Ratchet & Clank: Going Commando (November 11, 2003) -- 125,000 units
Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal (November 3, 2004) -- 207, 500 units
Ratchet: Deadlocked (October 25, 2005) -- 55,300 units
Ratchet & Clank Future: Tools of Destruction (October 30, 2007, though released in most retailers early) -- 74,500 units
So while it's a fair drop from R&C3, it's still higher than Deadlocked and isn't too far from R&C1 and R&C2. In a year or so it'll be evident if it 'tanked' or not but right now I don't think we can really tell.
Three Speech, the official Sony blog has come out and revealed the release dates for two of the most highly anticipated PS3 games with LittleBigPlanet and Killzone 2.
The blog states that the game will be shipping to retail in September and October of 2008.
The dates are very far away unfortunately so those hoping for a Spring or Summer 2008 release are definitely going to be disappointed.
It seems though that the games will be hitting store shelves next September and October as Sony is already planning their holiday 2008 line-up!
2008 is going to be a huge year for the PS3 with releases such as Devil May Cry 4, a new Jak and Daxter game rumored, Metal Gear Solid 4, a new God of War game rumored, and much more.
One interesting thing to note is that the blog also stated Grand Theft Auto IV will ship in the same time period.
This isn't going to be good for the PS3 sales early next year.
I'm pouring out a 40 right now for Zack & Wiki, but that was I knew in my heart of hearts from the beginning anyway -- point-and-click fans are used to it. The only thing I hope for is a slow burn of interest, akin to how Phoenix Wright built up from überniche to successful.
Lifetime to Date:
360 GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK - ~860K
WII GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK - ~710K
That is a lot closer than I would have thought. Is this counting the standalones and bundles for 360? Then again, 360 owners also have Rock Band competing for the GH3 market ... I'm actually really surprised at the close to 400k units Rock Band sold in the two weeks reported. Go man, go!
Oh, and my favorite GAF gif to date:
Wii60 as a combined unit is my favorite console combination since the glory days of SNES and Genesis. When I got over my 12-year-old fanboy ways and picked up the Genny, I was in heaven.
If it's DS Lites, it's actually 368 tons of DS systems. So that's what? 3.7 metric fucktons?
dmauro on
[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
0
Dr Mario KartGames DealerAustin, TXRegistered Userregular
edited December 2007
I can guarantee you without looking that those Guitar Hero numbers are for the bundles only. Theres absolutely no way the Wii bundle would be that close to bundle+stand-alone
Guys. Nintendo is going to implement a raincheck program with Gamestop. You pay for your Wii now and you're guaranteed one at some point in January.
raincheck program at GameStop for consumers to get a Wii after Christmas. GameStop press release coming later today. “tens of thousands†of rainchecks to be available that guarantee a system in January
Full payment needed, starts Dec. 21st, receive system in January sometime
From a Go Nintendo live blog of a conference call with Reggie.
Htown on
0
Dr Mario KartGames DealerAustin, TXRegistered Userregular
edited December 2007
That sounds like they're just preordering their next shipment out, except worse because you have to pay in full.
Looking at these numbers, a few things look clear.
1) The PS3 will remain in third place in the US for the duration.
2) Sony exclusives are not moving systems, at all.
3) As a developer, the 360 should be the lead sku for 360/PS3 cross platform development. It sells way more on the 360 (3:1), but still sells enough on the PS3 to be profitable.
Worldwide, we're likely headed for a 360/PS3 tie in a similar way that the oXbox and Gamecube tied, though I think the overall number will be higher for both consoles than either the oXbox or the 'cube. The Wii looks primed to keep selling out through the first half of next year with Wii Fit, Mario Kart, and Brawl, so the Wii should handily outsell the 360 and PS3 for the duration.
In short, I think the consoles have more or less settled into where they'll be 3 or so years from now when the next round comes up.
PS3 numbers look a lot like GCN 2002 numbers, so much so that I'll predict only a 33% increase for December sales.
I know you love to troll the PS3 but the November sales are only a little lower than the 360's last year (though they're probably a fair bit higher worldwide). So by extension, does that make the 360 the new GC too?
Comparing the PS3 to the GCN is the highest compliment I could possibly pay the system. Anyways, for an accurate comparison the 360 you'd have to compare GCN sales from November 2003. I'd say the 360 is a bit ahead of that mark, but probably not by as much as you'd think. The 360 is a relatively slow seller because of the price, while the GCN was cheap as chips by that point.
An apt comparison is:
PS3 = Sega Saturn. Just without all the great games that the Saturn had.
Think about it. Over priced. Hard to develop for. Initial offerings relied on a rally racer and a dragon shooting pew pew game. What third party support there is, the PS3, like the Saturn, is getting rushed ports that don't take advantage of the system or are not tailored for it, and the best games are probably going to be published by Sony.
Sheep on
0
HenroidMexican kicked from Immigration ThreadCentrism is Racism :3Registered Userregular
Posts
Why? For Gamecube Smash was the better selling of two until the end of its life cycle. Saying either is going to sell "a lot" better than the other I don't get.
Shit I didn't post my guesses here. They were
[360]800k
[NDS]1400k
[PS2]450k
[PS3]440k
[PSP]619k
[WII]1080k
toxk_02 - 383,000
Sorry, I have to defend my crown from the last prediction round!
Wii Zapper is off to a fast start.
This is a lot closer than I thought it would be, and if this month's pace continues the Wii could be on top by next month.
Next month's hardware is a tough call. Nintendo would have to really dig deep to find the consoles necessary to match what 360 is going to sell. We should try a more formal estimating system (like in October) for December's sales.
Any idea if Wii Play is counted towards accessory sales?
Which is honestly quite debatable. Both are accessories packaged with demo games, though I guess the distinction is Wii Play is a slightly more robust demo (8 or 9 activities vs. Crossbow Training's 4).
EDIT: though you know what, she said there were 4 Wii controllers in the top 5. So that could be
1. Wii Zapper
2. Standard Wii Remote
3. Standard Nunchuk
4. Standard Classic Controller
I guess those last two would fall into the "Wii controller" category. Kinda surprising that the classic controller would beat out a 360 controller but I have no idea how the accessories market looks. Something else for fanboys to get riled up about!
6 M on a 20 M userbase versus up to 15 M on a 100M+ one for the PS2 and 25M for XBOX (since it is a multiplatform title). The raw numbers dont have to be close. Attach rate/legs + Marketshare are still important.
The combined 360/PS3 pool when GTA 4 comes out might be something in the neighborhood of 35-40M. The GTA series has always been one of single player gameplay, while the big sellers on the HD platforms so far have been multiplayer.
Look at Ratchet & Clank. That has historically been serious business for the PS2 (the original sold 2.5M), but its tanking HARD on the PS3.
Though I personally think GTA4 will get pushed back more, into Q3 or Q4.
The thing is, GTA SOLD systems. You can say "So did Smash Brothers", but apparently it didn't do it near as well.
The userbase is a function of these games being on that platform. So attach rates are of questionable use.
And R&C is doing shitty on the PS3, but that's the PS3. GTA4 is hitting the 360. You know, the console that boasts attach rates that seem ludicrous.
GTA3 was a big system seller for the PS2 in the west. 360 already has its own western system sellers. GTA4 isnt going to sell more systems than say, Halo 3, and the Halo 3 bump has already come and gone.
Attach rates are certainly going to be powerful, but I still have my doubts about how far that will take a primarily single player game on the 360. Its clearly a different kind of animal than the PS2 was. It looks like the highest selling single player oriented 360 game is Oblivion at 3 million, which includes the PC version.
I still think GTA is gonna post numbers that blow Brawl away.
Smash Brothers has a sizable and loyal following, but I don't think it comes close to touching the popularity and commercial weight of GTA. Your talking about the game that sits near the top of the list of "Games people who've never played a video game in their lives will know".
I think the end-generation marketshare is going to have a lot of influence on this particular fight.
I certainly expect initial numbers to favor GTA by a wide margin though.
Secondly, R&C is a god-damn ridiculous example. R&C games have never sold really well at release, they just end up selling a lot more down the line (particularly with the greatest hits/platinum releases). Oh and it's not tanking on the PS3.
This is the record of R&C's first months (taken from 1UP):
Ratchet & Clank (November 4, 2002) -- 112,000 units
Ratchet & Clank: Going Commando (November 11, 2003) -- 125,000 units
Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal (November 3, 2004) -- 207, 500 units
Ratchet: Deadlocked (October 25, 2005) -- 55,300 units
Ratchet & Clank Future: Tools of Destruction (October 30, 2007, though released in most retailers early) -- 74,500 units
So while it's a fair drop from R&C3, it's still higher than Deadlocked and isn't too far from R&C1 and R&C2. In a year or so it'll be evident if it 'tanked' or not but right now I don't think we can really tell.
I'm going to retract my original statement and issue one that cannot be disputed and wont be changed by any future events:
Uncharted and R&C both bombed during their launch months.
That is a lot closer than I would have thought. Is this counting the standalones and bundles for 360? Then again, 360 owners also have Rock Band competing for the GH3 market ... I'm actually really surprised at the close to 400k units Rock Band sold in the two weeks reported. Go man, go!
Oh, and my favorite GAF gif to date:
Wii60 as a combined unit is my favorite console combination since the glory days of SNES and Genesis. When I got over my 12-year-old fanboy ways and picked up the Genny, I was in heaven.
If it's DS Lites, it's actually 368 tons of DS systems. So that's what? 3.7 metric fucktons?
From a Go Nintendo live blog of a conference call with Reggie.
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
Ratchet and Clank sold 66K.
I think that right there is why Wii isn't getting the third party support Nintendo would like.
It is selling better than PS360 and they aren't that far apart. Look at the YTD.
1) The PS3 will remain in third place in the US for the duration.
2) Sony exclusives are not moving systems, at all.
3) As a developer, the 360 should be the lead sku for 360/PS3 cross platform development. It sells way more on the 360 (3:1), but still sells enough on the PS3 to be profitable.
Worldwide, we're likely headed for a 360/PS3 tie in a similar way that the oXbox and Gamecube tied, though I think the overall number will be higher for both consoles than either the oXbox or the 'cube. The Wii looks primed to keep selling out through the first half of next year with Wii Fit, Mario Kart, and Brawl, so the Wii should handily outsell the 360 and PS3 for the duration.
In short, I think the consoles have more or less settled into where they'll be 3 or so years from now when the next round comes up.
err, why :?:
steam | Dokkan: 868846562
edit: Zack & Wiki also makes me sad. it's really a fun game. if it got at least a little bit of advertising it might have actually sold something...
steam | Dokkan: 868846562
Hey, it sold as well as Revenant Wings.
no, we're combining them like Voltron to give them a sporting chance :P
steam | Dokkan: 868846562
An apt comparison is:
PS3 = Sega Saturn. Just without all the great games that the Saturn had.
Think about it. Over priced. Hard to develop for. Initial offerings relied on a rally racer and a dragon shooting pew pew game. What third party support there is, the PS3, like the Saturn, is getting rushed ports that don't take advantage of the system or are not tailored for it, and the best games are probably going to be published by Sony.
I was thrown off by the comment regarding "why the Wii isn't getting the 3rd party support Nintendo wants" comment. Negative spin sucks.