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And lo, the pundits' narrative gets blown the fuck up once more. But don't freak out, you jittery brained freaks. It wasn't over because someone won in Iowa, and it's not over now just because they didn't win in New Hampshire. Relax, and smoke some of whatever you usually do. It's pot, isn't? I knew it.
Primary season just got more interesting. This is ultimately for the greater good. We can't help but be better off when our candidates legitimately have to refine themselves and their pitch.
I asked this just before the last thread got locked:
The delgate system is not like how the electoral college works, correct? As in, if someone wins a state in the electoral college, they carry all the votes there, whereas in the primaries, even if you lose the state you can still come out of it with the support of a proportional amount of delegates? Is that how it works?
If it does work that way, things are not all doom and gloom. Considering how close this is, Obama will still pick up enough to delegates to maintain a lead, though smaller than after Iowa.
What does Edwards do now? We know what Hildog and Obama are going to do. Should Edwards drop out, or keep going? How does he poll in Super Tuesday states? Do you think potential Edwards voters would sooner move to Hildog or Obama?
If he were actually interested in winning... I don't see any path to the nomination for him. He polls about as well nationally as he was polling here in NH. He will get nothing out NH that helps him in NV and SC, and so he will get nothing out of those states towards Feb. 5. But what do I know?
As for splits, the obvious answer is that Edwards voters would go for Obama, because a lot of them are anti-Hillary, farther left types (i.e. kossacks). But it may be that the other half of Edwards' vote is the blue collar workers that screwed him tonight.
Which way do the blue collar's break without Edwards? Clinton is the old school Dem and labor was always one of their power bases, but Obama is going to still be the candidate of change and improving the lot of those who have it rough.
I asked this just before the last thread got locked:
The delgate system is not like how the electoral college works, correct? As in, if someone wins a state in the electoral college, they carry all the votes there, whereas in the primaries, even if you lose the state you can still come out of it with the support of a proportional amount of delegates? Is that how it works?
If it does work that way, things are not all doom and gloom. Considering how close this is, Obama will still pick up enough to delegates to maintain a lead, though smaller than after Iowa.
Nope, it's based on percentages. Winning NH (even by3-4%) is more of a psychological win.
Michigan is technically next, but they have no delegates to send to the convention because they pissed off the DNC by moving their primary up too early.
Next up is the new kid on the block, the Nevada caucus on the 19th.
The new speech was fine; I agree with the analysts that it was basically a first-place speech with a concession line. New theme: "yes we can." He didn't seem very happy during the speech, though he was smiling a lot before and after.
waterlogged is pretty much a perfect example of what we can expect if Hillary gets the nom: a ton of people presenting irrational fear and impenetrable hatred based on murky reasoning and fueled by decades of spin from the right wing media machine. It's precisely why all the republicans are praying she'll be the democratic candidate.
You make this sound as if I listen to Faux News and talk radio, I don't.
I've always voted blue, I pushed for Webb, and as a military veteran pushed for Kerry. I'm a solid Democrat, but I don't want her, what she stands for (in terms of the press and imperial white house), or to help further entrench the American political family system.
Far from that. I'm a pro-gay rights, pro-choice, Democrat with a countdown till Bush is gone clock on my desk at work.
But I'm more loyal to this country then I am to any political party, and the continuation of this, be it blue or red, is far more damaging in the long term.
I wasn't completely decided to vote red against her until I saw senators and governors I respect, all Democrats mind you, explain why they wouldn't want to work in an administration under her, that clinched it for me. Biden's comments on why he wouldn't be vice or sec state under her were classic ones... but I guess you'll assert Biden is a victim of right wing media and like, just because he want's nothing to do with her, great.
I'm still hoping it's not her, but if it is I have to do what I feel is right.
On to something positive, hoping for an Obama win in SC
waterlogged on
Democrat that will switch parties and turn red if Clinton is nominated.:P[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
I don't get it. How did Clinton get to this point without any charisma whatsoever? Baffling.
zakkiel on
Account not recoverable. So long.
0
HakkekageSpace Whore Academysumma cum laudeRegistered Userregular
edited January 2008
A wave of vandalism hits New Hampshire. Residents shocked to find graffiti of dongs decorating their property. Several other parts report shit on porches.
As I said before I was really hoping Obama's gaining momentum could get him a generous slice (and the win) in other important states that still lean Hilldog, like California. And I really, really, really don't want to see Hillary go back to being smug, like she was before the Obama surge.
Hillary: "My heart is full... I found my own voice." That will be her implicit storyline - that now she's found her real core. She's not as engaging as Obama, and she needs to get rid of the notecards, but she's doing a very competent job. "We are in it for the long run!" Kinda odd to bring that up in a victory speech. "We are in it for the American people." (I thought she was "in it to win it.") New theme "deliver on our promises." She's learned from all of her mistakes re: framing the shot, thanking her family, putting young people behind her, etc.
Nevada counts, since they had the Democratic Party's blessing to move their caucus up.
Michigan and Florida did not, hence they are sending no delegates to the convention. Literally nobody who lives in those states matter. If I lived in, say, Detroit or Miami, I'd be a wee tad peeved at this.
Hillary: "My heart is full... I found my own voice." That will be her implicit storyline - that now she's found her real core. She's not as engaging as Obama, and she needs to get rid of the notecards, but she's doing a very competent job. "We are in it for the long run!" Kinda odd to bring that up in a concession speech. "We are in it for the American people." (I thought she was "in it to win it.") New theme "deliver on our promises." She's learned from all of her mistakes re: framing the shot, thanking her family, putting young people behind her, etc.
I want tips for watching that.
It was Obama's Iowa speech rephrased and spoken in a monotone except when she spoke about her own Presidential bid. The woman thinks she's owed this for whatever reason and it drives me nuts. That said, I'll still probably support her over the trolls in the Republican primary.
Obama's speech was very similar to the Iowa one except with a "yes we can!" theme/section added on at the end. He's so very excellent.
enlightenedbum on
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
How disappointing. I noticed how Clinton's speech was absolutely mobbed by young women and older people. Not to many young men and twenty-to-thirty-somethings in there, at all.
I have to wonder what will happen as the primaries move west/south and away from the feminists which seemed to really form the backbone of Clinton's effort here.
Hillary: "My heart is full... I found my own voice." That will be her implicit storyline - that now she's found her real core. She's not as engaging as Obama, and she needs to get rid of the notecards, but she's doing a very competent job. "We are in it for the long run!" Kinda odd to bring that up in a concession speech. "We are in it for the American people." (I thought she was "in it to win it.") New theme "deliver on our promises." She's learned from all of her mistakes re: framing the shot, thanking her family, putting young people behind her, etc.
I want tips for watching that.
It was Obama's Iowa speech rephrased and spoken in a monotone except when she spoke about her own Presidential bid. The woman thinks she's owed this for whatever reason and it drives me nuts. That said, I'll still probably support her over the trolls in the Republican primary.
Obama's speech was very similar to the Iowa one except with a "yes we can!" theme/section added on at the end. He's so very excellent.
And I know this feeds into the "Hillary Clinton gets critiqued for her fashion sense, that's so misogynist" concept, but I have to go there: Hillary was dressed like a minor character in Jade Empire.
Clinton's lead has fallen below 6000 votes. If Obama ends up with a popular victory, infractions be damned, I will be forced to post an in-line ha ha guy.
Fartacus_the_Mighty on
0
HakkekageSpace Whore Academysumma cum laudeRegistered Userregular
edited January 2008
I think enlightenedbum hit it on the head. A big part of my distaste for her is the sense of entitlement she seems to project whenever talking about the presidency. It drives me nuts.
In large part I agree with her policies and her experience. But Jesus Christ if she isn't just inherently repelling.
Posts
If he were actually interested in winning... I don't see any path to the nomination for him. He polls about as well nationally as he was polling here in NH. He will get nothing out NH that helps him in NV and SC, and so he will get nothing out of those states towards Feb. 5. But what do I know?
As for splits, the obvious answer is that Edwards voters would go for Obama, because a lot of them are anti-Hillary, farther left types (i.e. kossacks). But it may be that the other half of Edwards' vote is the blue collar workers that screwed him tonight.
Nope, it's based on percentages. Winning NH (even by3-4%) is more of a psychological win.
I did the same exact thing... New Hampshire disappoints me.
Michigan.
Next up is the new kid on the block, the Nevada caucus on the 19th.
Fuck yes.
Edit: that is to say, it was good.
You make this sound as if I listen to Faux News and talk radio, I don't.
I've always voted blue, I pushed for Webb, and as a military veteran pushed for Kerry. I'm a solid Democrat, but I don't want her, what she stands for (in terms of the press and imperial white house), or to help further entrench the American political family system.
Far from that. I'm a pro-gay rights, pro-choice, Democrat with a countdown till Bush is gone clock on my desk at work.
But I'm more loyal to this country then I am to any political party, and the continuation of this, be it blue or red, is far more damaging in the long term.
I wasn't completely decided to vote red against her until I saw senators and governors I respect, all Democrats mind you, explain why they wouldn't want to work in an administration under her, that clinched it for me. Biden's comments on why he wouldn't be vice or sec state under her were classic ones... but I guess you'll assert Biden is a victim of right wing media and like, just because he want's nothing to do with her, great.
I'm still hoping it's not her, but if it is I have to do what I feel is right.
On to something positive, hoping for an Obama win in SC
On the black screen
Doesnt count.
It was an Obama speech. That said, I was humping the screen by the time he said goodnight.
God, I'm so pissed right now.
Whatever his flaws, Obama gives one motherfucker of a speech.
He did finally trot out the "Fired up! Ready to go!" line.
Why did you fail America and all our children yet to come?
kisses,
concerned
As I said before I was really hoping Obama's gaining momentum could get him a generous slice (and the win) in other important states that still lean Hilldog, like California. And I really, really, really don't want to see Hillary go back to being smug, like she was before the Obama surge.
NNID: Hakkekage
He was never expected to win. He was hoping for third, his campaign is very happy right now.
527 heaven
I want tips for watching that.
Really? How about Nevada?
Nevada counts, since they had the Democratic Party's blessing to move their caucus up.
Michigan and Florida did not, hence they are sending no delegates to the convention. Literally nobody who lives in those states matter. If I lived in, say, Detroit or Miami, I'd be a wee tad peeved at this.
It was Obama's Iowa speech rephrased and spoken in a monotone except when she spoke about her own Presidential bid. The woman thinks she's owed this for whatever reason and it drives me nuts. That said, I'll still probably support her over the trolls in the Republican primary.
Obama's speech was very similar to the Iowa one except with a "yes we can!" theme/section added on at the end. He's so very excellent.
I have to wonder what will happen as the primaries move west/south and away from the feminists which seemed to really form the backbone of Clinton's effort here.
Not possible at this stage. He's still like 9000 votes up.
And I know this feeds into the "Hillary Clinton gets critiqued for her fashion sense, that's so misogynist" concept, but I have to go there: Hillary was dressed like a minor character in Jade Empire.
Edit: oh god, and his laugh.
It is delightful.
In large part I agree with her policies and her experience. But Jesus Christ if she isn't just inherently repelling.
NNID: Hakkekage
PSN ID : HBoxx