I suspect if GTA sales will bump up a little after the big week 2 drop. I know a lot of people who decided to wait out the initial rush, only to be left out because it sold out everywhere. They will buy thier copy as soon as they can find one. Not sure if that's isolated to Canada or not, but it was tough to find a copy for the week after release around here. I suspect that has changed by now, which could mean a slightly larger week 3 number.
Thats the point. no system has ever been specified and people assumed wii.
whereas the guys behind the game have implied otherwise.
it will be years off yet.
also, i know it was on dreamcast. i still have my original import copy. im the biggest soa fan out there.
But since it was on dreamcast even a gamecube sequal could have expanded things technically/graphically.
So I question your assumptions a little.
That's all.
The difference in power between a dreamcast and a gamecube is much much smaller than the difference in power between a wii and a 360/ps3
Considering they just put out a game on ps3, wouldnt put it past them to drop skies 2 on there.
there really is no real reason to go with the wii. skies doesnt have anything in it which would benefit from motion controls, its a jrpg of the finest and most traditional calibre.
Aside from the debateability of that last bit, it would be much cheaper to develop for the Wii.
Given the first was not exactly a smash hit, it would be logical they wouldn't want to go full high-def for a sequal only a small number of people could end up buying.
Not to mention larger install base.
Not saying this is a definite argument by any means, but there are reasons to put anything on the Wii, from a commercial perspective.
Xagarath on
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Dr Mario KartGames DealerAustin, TXRegistered Userregular
edited May 2008
A game doesnt need to benefit from motion controls to be on the Wii. It might however, benefit from high marketshare and low dev costs.
A game doesnt need to benefit from motion controls to be on the Wii. It might however, benefit from high marketshare and low dev costs.
Just a nit-pick, so forgive me if what I'm saying is already obvious and assumed, but just in case it isn't, I wanted to point out that the "low dev costs" for Wii development doesn't really apply when it's a multi-platform title. It's not like making a Wii version of a game, in addition to the 360 and PS3 versions will actually lower its dev costs ... unless the developers are expecting the 360/PS3 versions to be low-res (which is highly unlikely).
As with any multi-platform game, it takes extra time and money to create additional platform versions. Of course, it's expected that the extra revenue will exceed the resources put into making that version. Same will go for the potential Wii version of this game.
If you're making a game that's only for the Wii, then I agree 100% with that sentence.
A clearer picture of GTA IV's sales in the U.S. should be available later in the week when the April NPD data is released, but for now Newsweek has obtained sales information from leading video game retailer GameStop, which indicated that Rockstar's blockbuster was sold 64 percent of the time (during launch week) for Microsoft's console – essentially a two to one advantage for Xbox 360 over PS3.
Considering that the Xbox 360 has a much larger installed based – 9.9 million versus 4.1 million PS3s in the U.S. – is that GTA IV ratio really that impressive? PlayStation senior vice president of marketing Peter Dille certainly doesn't think so.
"GameStop probably does a little bit better with the early adopter crowd. There's a larger installed base right now on Xbox 360 than on PS3. So it's not surprising that there's going to be more selling on Xbox 360 than PS3. Having said that, we're really excited about the ratio. If I had an installed base advantage of 3-1, I wouldn't be crowing too much about a 60-40 sales advantage," commented Dille.
He added, "We think it's not as high as what GameStop's telling you, if you look at [the full picture on] the national level. They're outselling us, but not by that same margin, and it's because of their installed base lead. With an installed base lead that's close to 3-1, if you're bragging about a 60-40 software split, it's clear evidence that the PlayStation 3 consumer is overindexing on GTA IV, and the PlayStation brand loyalty that we've been talking about is bearing itself out in the marketplace as we speak."
A clearer picture of GTA IV's sales in the U.S. should be available later in the week when the April NPD data is released, but for now Newsweek has obtained sales information from leading video game retailer GameStop, which indicated that Rockstar's blockbuster was sold 64 percent of the time (during launch week) for Microsoft's console – essentially a two to one advantage for Xbox 360 over PS3.
Considering that the Xbox 360 has a much larger installed based – 9.9 million versus 4.1 million PS3s in the U.S. – is that GTA IV ratio really that impressive? PlayStation senior vice president of marketing Peter Dille certainly doesn't think so.
"GameStop probably does a little bit better with the early adopter crowd. There's a larger installed base right now on Xbox 360 than on PS3. So it's not surprising that there's going to be more selling on Xbox 360 than PS3. Having said that, we're really excited about the ratio. If I had an installed base advantage of 3-1, I wouldn't be crowing too much about a 60-40 sales advantage," commented Dille.
He added, "We think it's not as high as what GameStop's telling you, if you look at [the full picture on] the national level. They're outselling us, but not by that same margin, and it's because of their installed base lead. With an installed base lead that's close to 3-1, if you're bragging about a 60-40 software split, it's clear evidence that the PlayStation 3 consumer is overindexing on GTA IV, and the PlayStation brand loyalty that we've been talking about is bearing itself out in the marketplace as we speak."
Barring some monumental shift in either direction (either the 360 version vastly starts outselling the PS3, or vice versa), the spin from both MS and Sony (and their respective fanboys) is that they "won" the GTA IV war. Oh silly console wars ...
Dr Mario KartGames DealerAustin, TXRegistered Userregular
edited May 2008
I dont see why the lower costs of developing for the Wii wouldnt affect multiplatform games.
Yes, developing for 3 systems is going to be more expensive than developing for 2. So its going to take extra time and money, but how much extra is going to vary. Therefore, it matters.
A clearer picture of GTA IV's sales in the U.S. should be available later in the week when the April NPD data is released, but for now Newsweek has obtained sales information from leading video game retailer GameStop, which indicated that Rockstar's blockbuster was sold 64 percent of the time (during launch week) for Microsoft's console – essentially a two to one advantage for Xbox 360 over PS3.
Considering that the Xbox 360 has a much larger installed based – 9.9 million versus 4.1 million PS3s in the U.S. – is that GTA IV ratio really that impressive? PlayStation senior vice president of marketing Peter Dille certainly doesn't think so.
"GameStop probably does a little bit better with the early adopter crowd. There's a larger installed base right now on Xbox 360 than on PS3. So it's not surprising that there's going to be more selling on Xbox 360 than PS3. Having said that, we're really excited about the ratio. If I had an installed base advantage of 3-1, I wouldn't be crowing too much about a 60-40 sales advantage," commented Dille.
He added, "We think it's not as high as what GameStop's telling you, if you look at [the full picture on] the national level. They're outselling us, but not by that same margin, and it's because of their installed base lead. With an installed base lead that's close to 3-1, if you're bragging about a 60-40 software split, it's clear evidence that the PlayStation 3 consumer is overindexing on GTA IV, and the PlayStation brand loyalty that we've been talking about is bearing itself out in the marketplace as we speak."
A) 9.9 million cs 4.1 million is 2.4:1 not 3:1. It's not even close.
'360 is outselling us by a lot but not as much as it should' is the worst PR ever.
C) Why are the first parties spinning for a vendors game. Spin fucking first party titles guys.
Interesting thing I've noted in the past couple weeks in terms of the "big" game sales at our store---while GTA sales seems to have dipped considerably since the huge opening (still staying steady, mind you) Mario Kart appears to have had a decent opening and not dropped off nearly as much (partially due to the crowd that buys the game).
I mean, for example, we're on our third shipment of Mario Kart (and were sold out on Sunday). Whereas we're on our second shipment of the 360 version of GTA (bigger shipments though, obviously).
I think that the 360 version of GTA IV will still outsell it in May, but it will likely outsell the PS3 version.
And say what you will about the wheels, but from reactions I've been getting at the store, it's been a brilliant move by Nintendo in terms of selling the game to non-traditional crowds.
I dont see why the lower costs of developing for the Wii wouldnt affect multiplatform games.
Yes, developing for 3 systems is going to be more expensive than developing for 2. So its going to take extra time and money, but how much extra is going to vary. Therefore, it matters.
I odn't know, I can see where that thinking makes sense. If the three systems are of comparable power you design for the lowest common denominator, and then most (or all) elements of game design and graphical assets can be reused for the other versions - all you have to do is get it to work.
Contrast that with, say, Force Unleashed. Instead of just porting it over to the third platform, they have to accomodate the much weaker Wii by designing an entirely new game for it. Graphical assets, physics, game design, and so on has to be pretty much completely redone and while that may be cheaper than making another separate game for the 360 I wouldn't be too surprised to find out it can be as expensive as the HD port would have been.
I dont see why the lower costs of developing for the Wii wouldnt affect multiplatform games.
Yes, developing for 3 systems is going to be more expensive than developing for 2. So its going to take extra time and money, but how much extra is going to vary. Therefore, it matters.
I odn't know, I can see where that thinking makes sense. If the three systems are of comparable power you design for the lowest common denominator, and then most (or all) elements of game design and graphical assets can be reused for the other versions - all you have to do is get it to work.
Contrast that with, say, Force Unleashed. Instead of just porting it over to the third platform, they have to accomodate the much weaker Wii by designing an entirely new game for it. Graphical assets, physics, game design, and so on has to be pretty much completely redone and while that may be cheaper than making another separate game for the 360 I wouldn't be too surprised to find out it can be as expensive as the HD port would have been.
Yeah, but isn't the wii actually just a port of the PS2 version, which they're already also getting a PSP version from?
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Dr Mario KartGames DealerAustin, TXRegistered Userregular
edited May 2008
There are certainly different ways to handle multiplatform development, ranging from true simultaneous development, to lead platform development with less emphasis on others, to outsourcing for ports (Valve).
I'm pretty much against multiplatform in general, I think it hurts the game in nearly every case. I would rather have true exclusives only.
Force Unleashed isnt a good example though, its also on the PS2 and DS.
This is how things get muddy however, because no one ever gets dev cost numbers for games. Its certainly in the realm of possibility that having a game from the ground up for the Wii could potentially be more expensive than a 360/PS3 port. However, that also gives developers too much credit. Multiplatform sucks on the Wii, so they clearly arent putting much work into it anyway.
Interesting thing I've noted in the past couple weeks in terms of the "big" game sales at our store---while GTA sales seems to have dipped considerably since the huge opening (still staying steady, mind you) Mario Kart appears to have had a decent opening and not dropped off nearly as much (partially due to the crowd that buys the game).
I mean, for example, we're on our third shipment of Mario Kart (and were sold out on Sunday). Whereas we're on our second shipment of the 360 version of GTA (bigger shipments though, obviously).
I think that the 360 version of GTA IV will still outsell it in May, but it will likely outsell the PS3 version.
And say what you will about the wheels, but from reactions I've been getting at the store, it's been a brilliant move by Nintendo in terms of selling the game to non-traditional crowds.
I'm not sure why anybody would be surprised by this. The 360 and PS3 have nowhere near the install base the PS2 did for the latter GTA titles, so it seems natural that the sales would drop off fairly quickly.
Sales of hardcore games generally drop like a rock after the initial few weeks of sales with a few exceptions including COD4 and Halo 3. That's why in recent months Wii software has been able to outsell 360 software overall.
That's a major problem with the 360's mostly hardcore gamer base. You're either a great success or a massive failure and everything is decided in a matter of days from release. You're either Iron Man or Speed Racer.
That's a major problem with the 360's mostly hardcore gamer base. You're either a great success or a massive failure and everything is decided in a matter of days from release. You're either Iron Man or Speed Racer.
I'm not so sure about that anymore. Just because a game doesn't show up in the top 10 list week after week, doesn't mean it's a "massive failure". Perhaps that's true in the minds of forum video game junkies, but I still think it's all about the sales numbers, revenue, and profit. For example, I was surprised that Viva Pinata managed to sell over half a million units, despite the fact that it didn't exactly light the sales charts on fire. I wouldn't exactly call that a "massive failure". Rather, news of a sequel has been leaked. On paper, it's probably been a good thing.
There are certainly many other games that fall very quickly out of the top 10, but if they're consistently selling well (maybe they're lurking around 10 to 20 every week?), that's still pretty good. Those sales accumulate over time and before you know it, the developers/publishers are announcing another sequel. I think Dead Rising is another example of this, and certainly there are others.
The main thing that dictates "massive failure" now days is mindset.
People think that if a game doesn't sell 5 million copies in one day, like GTA IV, Halo 3, etc, then it's a complete failure. They tend to forget that this is a minority. There are way more companies happy to sell software in the 200 - 300k mark and consider it a success.
The main thing that dictates "massive failure" now days is mindset.
People think that if a game doesn't sell 5 million copies in one day, like GTA IV, Halo 3, etc, then it's a complete failure. They tend to forget that this is a minority. There are way more companies happy to sell software in the 200 - 300k mark and consider it a success.
Atlus pops corks if something hits 100k.
Exactly. If a game sells 50k but all the developer needed was 10k to pull a profit, then that's great. Who cares what forum junkies dictate as a "success" versus "failure"?
Conversely, if a game sells 1 million units but development costs were obscene and the developer/publisher needed 2 million to be sold, then that's a failure.
I don't know if Viva Pinata hit a million. What did happen for sure, though, is that it sold around 30k its first month, sold meekly but regularly for several months, but as soon as it dropped to $30, it got a big boost, and eventually pulled in just over 600,000 sales.
Now, I think VP was a pack-in for some region, at some point, so that may have inflated the numbers.
The last time we heard the 600,000+ figure was when the developers were jabbering about a sequel or the Ds game or something.
Dead Rising was only a semi-slow burner because it's popularity spread more by word of mouth than a huge 20 million dollar marketing campaign. It took almost half a year, but it eventually scraped just over a million (1.22M) worldwide, which is damn good.
That gamedaily article that says that mentions the percent sales breakdown of GTA on the 360/PS3 is right in line with what all of have been predicting -- 1.8 to 1 ratio favoring the 360. (actually the GD article is at 1.77 but nevertheless we're damn close)
That gamedaily article that says that mentions the percent sales breakdown of GTA on the 360/PS3 is right in line with what all of have been predicting -- 1.8 to 1 ratio favoring the 360. (actually the GD article is at 1.77 but nevertheless we're damn close)
You know, financial companies could save a lot of money if they fire their analysts and just come to us whenever they need an accurate prediction.
That gamedaily article that says that mentions the percent sales breakdown of GTA on the 360/PS3 is right in line with what all of have been predicting -- 1.8 to 1 ratio favoring the 360. (actually the GD article is at 1.77 but nevertheless we're damn close)
You know, financial companies could save a lot of money if they fire their analysts and just come to us whenever they need an accurate prediction.
That would be awesome. I could use some moneyhats.
lowlylowlycook on
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That gamedaily article that says that mentions the percent sales breakdown of GTA on the 360/PS3 is right in line with what all of have been predicting -- 1.8 to 1 ratio favoring the 360. (actually the GD article is at 1.77 but nevertheless we're damn close)
You know, financial companies could save a lot of money if they fire their analysts and just come to us whenever they need an accurate prediction.
Seriously! :P
Anyway, I'm really interested in seeing the NPD and what the actual numbers are that have been aluded to by these various sources.
So far all the pieces are falling into place. Here was the results of a "purchasing poll" done on gamefaqs' front page on April 30, where it fell in line with our predictions as well.
That gamedaily article that says that mentions the percent sales breakdown of GTA on the 360/PS3 is right in line with what all of have been predicting -- 1.8 to 1 ratio favoring the 360. (actually the GD article is at 1.77 but nevertheless we're damn close)
You know, financial companies could save a lot of money if they fire their analysts and just come to us whenever they need an accurate prediction.
That would be awesome. I could use some moneyhats.
So to me the whole of "news" about GTA seems like it falls into a place where it doesn't really affect things much.
If the ratio was a lot more in the PS3's favor then maybe it really would be "year of the PS3" in 2008. But it seems that things will just continue in roughly the same way going forward.
And it seems that at current prices even GTA cant keep the Wii from defeating all comers single handed.
Who will blink first and try to get an advantage via price cuts?
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Dr Mario KartGames DealerAustin, TXRegistered Userregular
edited May 2008
I wonder if theres any chance that both MS and Sony are relatively fine with their price points and current sales.
They're not going to go out of their way to try to catch Wii, so only thinking about the other might bring about very different decisions.
I wonder if theres any chance that both MS and Sony are relatively fine with their price points and current sales.
They're not going to go out of their way to try to catch Wii, so only thinking about the other might bring about very different decisions.
Perhaps, but there's a big difference between MS and Sony currently. The games division for MS is currently making a profit, and expected to hit target revenue (if not perhaps beat them). That's not the case for Sony.
That said, I'm not sure if that difference means if MS or Sony are more or less likely to cut prices. I do think that historically (aka last year), Sony has shown that they're very much willing to cut prices over the summer, whereas MS has chosen to wait till closer to the Fall.
Viva Pinata was never in the top 10 and has sold a million.
There are a lot of slow burners on 360, Dead Rising being probably the most famous.
Which is why it's quite a shame we only the top ten and a few odd other ones from NPD, because DS game sales are usually pretty healthy, which is something that is rarely reflected by the top ten. The Wii, also, has a pretty strong number of mid-level titles that seem to have a slow but steady burn, even moreso than the other systems, which have more (from what we can tell) front-loaded titles.
A game doesnt need to benefit from motion controls to be on the Wii. It might however, benefit from high marketshare and low dev costs.
Just a nit-pick, so forgive me if what I'm saying is already obvious and assumed, but just in case it isn't, I wanted to point out that the "low dev costs" for Wii development doesn't really apply when it's a multi-platform title. It's not like making a Wii version of a game, in addition to the 360 and PS3 versions will actually lower its dev costs ... unless the developers are expecting the 360/PS3 versions to be low-res (which is highly unlikely).
As with any multi-platform game, it takes extra time and money to create additional platform versions. Of course, it's expected that the extra revenue will exceed the resources put into making that version. Same will go for the potential Wii version of this game.
If you're making a game that's only for the Wii, then I agree 100% with that sentence.
We don't even know what system it's for. But considering the lackluster sales for Valkyrie Chronicles in Japan, I wouldn't bet on a PS3 release.
Vyse and Aika being in VC is pretty much confirmation that SOA2 is in the works, thats for sure. You don't put stuff like that in a game for shits and giggles.
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Dr Mario KartGames DealerAustin, TXRegistered Userregular
edited May 2008
Nothing sells in Japan that isnt Nintendo though. Completely ignoring Japan and going for the western HD markets is 100% legit as a strategy, even as a Japanese developer.
Nothing sells in Japan that isnt Nintendo though. Completely ignoring Japan and going for the western HD markets is 100% legit as a strategy, even as a Japanese developer.
JRPGs don't sell well enough for that strategy to work in America. Seriously, any non-Final Fantasy/Square-Enix JRPG should be fucking ecstatic to even get 50,000 units sold.
Nothing sells in Japan that isnt Nintendo though. Completely ignoring Japan and going for the western HD markets is 100% legit as a strategy, even as a Japanese developer.
Maybe if you produce games that sell well in the west like Capcom, but if you produce games that usually sell the best in Japan like Square's games, it probably isn't a good idea.
I don't know if Viva Pinata hit a million. What did happen for sure, though, is that it sold around 30k its first month, sold meekly but regularly for several months, but as soon as it dropped to $30, it got a big boost, and eventually pulled in just over 600,000 sales.
Now, I think VP was a pack-in for some region, at some point, so that may have inflated the numbers.
The last time we heard the 600,000+ figure was when the developers were jabbering about a sequel or the Ds game or something.
Yep. Viva Pinata sold decently after a total price collapse. I remember some people (perhaps on cheap ass gamer) picking it up for $10 or $15 a few months after release at one of the big box retailers (Target?). That doesn't exactly bode well for the franchise on the 360.
I'm not so sure about that anymore. Just because a game doesn't show up in the top 10 list week after week, doesn't mean it's a "massive failure". Perhaps that's true in the minds of forum video game junkies, but I still think it's all about the sales numbers, revenue, and profit. For example, I was surprised that Viva Pinata managed to sell over half a million units, despite the fact that it didn't exactly light the sales charts on fire. I wouldn't exactly call that a "massive failure". Rather, news of a sequel has been leaked. On paper, it's probably been a good thing.
Pretty much. Getting into the top 10 is a must for huge blockbuster games like Halo or Mass Effect, because they've got massive budgets that go into the tens of millions of dollars. But you really can't apply the same logic to games like Viva Pinata with comparatively minuscule budgets.
That said, just because Viva Pinata sold a million copies (which I don't ever remember happening or being discussed btw), doesn't suddenly make it a big success either. I doubt Microsoft is getting much money from it if they were forced to lower price that drastically.
Other than the Agency, what MMOs are coming to the PS3? Maybe Sony plans to encourage them to be released.
Well SOE do have a couple of other PS3 MMO's in the works (according to wiki, Free Realms and the DC MMO) and NCsoft is PS3 exclusive (though I'd predict that that was becaues of the open online system and standard HDD, rather than a Sony moneyhat), so it's not too far fetched a statement.
Meanwhile, the Xbox 360 version of GTA widened its sales advantage over the PS3 version by accounting for 62 per cent of sales, compared to 55 per cent last week.
As initial demand is starting to be met, the sales ratio breakdown between the two versions becomes more clear.
Thus, we're able to actually see that even in Europe, the 360 version is managing to pull noticeably ahead of its PS3 counterpart.
I really should point out that the UK != Europe. The UK is the one European country you should expect the 360 version to sell a lot better, seeing as they've still got a sizable lead over the PS3 (though it is apparently getting smaller by the week). I'd expect the PS3 version to do a lot better in continental Europe though, where the 360 support is pretty weak.
Meanwhile, the Xbox 360 version of GTA widened its sales advantage over the PS3 version by accounting for 62 per cent of sales, compared to 55 per cent last week.
As initial demand is starting to be met, the sales ratio breakdown between the two versions becomes more clear.
Thus, we're able to actually see that even in Europe, the 360 version is managing to pull noticeably ahead of its PS3 counterpart.
I really should point out that the UK != Europe. The UK is the one European country you should expect the 360 version to sell a lot better, seeing as they've still got a sizable lead over the PS3 (though it is apparently getting smaller by the week). I'd expect the PS3 version to do a lot better in continental Europe though, where the 360 support is pretty weak.
Indeed, the article was only talking about the UK. I thought it was speaking more generally about Europe, but it's referring only to Uk. Indeed, the UK is not representative of the entire region.
I'm not so sure about that anymore. Just because a game doesn't show up in the top 10 list week after week, doesn't mean it's a "massive failure". Perhaps that's true in the minds of forum video game junkies, but I still think it's all about the sales numbers, revenue, and profit. For example, I was surprised that Viva Pinata managed to sell over half a million units, despite the fact that it didn't exactly light the sales charts on fire. I wouldn't exactly call that a "massive failure". Rather, news of a sequel has been leaked. On paper, it's probably been a good thing.
Pretty much. Getting into the top 10 is a must for huge blockbuster games like Halo or Mass Effect, because they've got massive budgets that go into the tens of millions of dollars. But you really can't apply the same logic to games like Viva Pinata with comparatively minuscule budgets.
That said, just because Viva Pinata sold a million copies (which I don't ever remember happening or being discussed btw), doesn't suddenly make it a big success either. I doubt Microsoft is getting much money from it if they were forced to lower price that drastically.
Good point. I don't think we know how much that game cost to make. That said, the fact that there was a spinoff created and a sequel already announced, seems to imply that the franchise does have some life. If anything, it serves as one of the few "casual friendly" series that MS can focus on for the 360.
Anyway, back to the top 10 issue, I think it still depends on what the "long tail" phenomenon is like. Has there ever been an example of a "blockbuster" franchise that never made the top 10, yet hung around with decent sales for a loooong time, and ended up making a good profit? I wonder if the aforementioned Dead Rising fits the bill here.
So to me the whole of "news" about GTA seems like it falls into a place where it doesn't really affect things much.
If the ratio was a lot more in the PS3's favor then maybe it really would be "year of the PS3" in 2008. But it seems that things will just continue in roughly the same way going forward.
And it seems that at current prices even GTA cant keep the Wii from defeating all comers single handed.
This, so hard. History has shown that in every generation (save SNES vs. Genesis) that sales ratios for each system are established early and never change. Yes, the PS3 is getting MGS4, which looks mind-blowingly awesome. But remember, the Gamecube kept getting awesome games. The Xbox kept getting awesome games -- including Halo 2, which launched with a massive amount of hype. But these awesome games didn't keep either system from being outsold by the PS3 by nearly 5:1.
The same will happen this generation, barring a catastrophy... and hell, the 360's huge red ring problem didn't seem to affect its sales. (Mine red-ringed this week, grrr.)
I wonder if theres any chance that both MS and Sony are relatively fine with their price points and current sales.
They're not going to go out of their way to try to catch Wii, so only thinking about the other might bring about very different decisions.
I've said it before, but I think price cuts this year will come down to Sony. Microsoft is fine with making profits. Sony's reaching profitability, so they might want to hold onto that rather than cut the system price and take a short-term loss in exchange for more buyers in the long run. There's also the possibility that both Sony and Microsoft will look at the Wii and figure "well hell, the market has shown that we don't need price cuts!" Which is a distinct and depressing possibility.
Still, I say that if Sony really has its head in the game, it'll cut the PS3 price for MGS4. Microsoft will invariably follow.
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Given the first was not exactly a smash hit, it would be logical they wouldn't want to go full high-def for a sequal only a small number of people could end up buying.
Not to mention larger install base.
Not saying this is a definite argument by any means, but there are reasons to put anything on the Wii, from a commercial perspective.
Just a nit-pick, so forgive me if what I'm saying is already obvious and assumed, but just in case it isn't, I wanted to point out that the "low dev costs" for Wii development doesn't really apply when it's a multi-platform title. It's not like making a Wii version of a game, in addition to the 360 and PS3 versions will actually lower its dev costs ... unless the developers are expecting the 360/PS3 versions to be low-res (which is highly unlikely).
As with any multi-platform game, it takes extra time and money to create additional platform versions. Of course, it's expected that the extra revenue will exceed the resources put into making that version. Same will go for the potential Wii version of this game.
If you're making a game that's only for the Wii, then I agree 100% with that sentence.
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Heh, this spin is just as I predicted weeks ago.
Barring some monumental shift in either direction (either the 360 version vastly starts outselling the PS3, or vice versa), the spin from both MS and Sony (and their respective fanboys) is that they "won" the GTA IV war. Oh silly console wars ...
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Yes, developing for 3 systems is going to be more expensive than developing for 2. So its going to take extra time and money, but how much extra is going to vary. Therefore, it matters.
A) 9.9 million cs 4.1 million is 2.4:1 not 3:1. It's not even close.
C) Why are the first parties spinning for a vendors game. Spin fucking first party titles guys.
I mean, for example, we're on our third shipment of Mario Kart (and were sold out on Sunday). Whereas we're on our second shipment of the 360 version of GTA (bigger shipments though, obviously).
I think that the 360 version of GTA IV will still outsell it in May, but it will likely outsell the PS3 version.
And say what you will about the wheels, but from reactions I've been getting at the store, it's been a brilliant move by Nintendo in terms of selling the game to non-traditional crowds.
Contrast that with, say, Force Unleashed. Instead of just porting it over to the third platform, they have to accomodate the much weaker Wii by designing an entirely new game for it. Graphical assets, physics, game design, and so on has to be pretty much completely redone and while that may be cheaper than making another separate game for the 360 I wouldn't be too surprised to find out it can be as expensive as the HD port would have been.
I'm pretty much against multiplatform in general, I think it hurts the game in nearly every case. I would rather have true exclusives only.
Force Unleashed isnt a good example though, its also on the PS2 and DS.
This is how things get muddy however, because no one ever gets dev cost numbers for games. Its certainly in the realm of possibility that having a game from the ground up for the Wii could potentially be more expensive than a 360/PS3 port. However, that also gives developers too much credit. Multiplatform sucks on the Wii, so they clearly arent putting much work into it anyway.
I'm not sure why anybody would be surprised by this. The 360 and PS3 have nowhere near the install base the PS2 did for the latter GTA titles, so it seems natural that the sales would drop off fairly quickly.
Sales of hardcore games generally drop like a rock after the initial few weeks of sales with a few exceptions including COD4 and Halo 3. That's why in recent months Wii software has been able to outsell 360 software overall.
That's a major problem with the 360's mostly hardcore gamer base. You're either a great success or a massive failure and everything is decided in a matter of days from release. You're either Iron Man or Speed Racer.
I'm not so sure about that anymore. Just because a game doesn't show up in the top 10 list week after week, doesn't mean it's a "massive failure". Perhaps that's true in the minds of forum video game junkies, but I still think it's all about the sales numbers, revenue, and profit. For example, I was surprised that Viva Pinata managed to sell over half a million units, despite the fact that it didn't exactly light the sales charts on fire. I wouldn't exactly call that a "massive failure". Rather, news of a sequel has been leaked. On paper, it's probably been a good thing.
There are certainly many other games that fall very quickly out of the top 10, but if they're consistently selling well (maybe they're lurking around 10 to 20 every week?), that's still pretty good. Those sales accumulate over time and before you know it, the developers/publishers are announcing another sequel. I think Dead Rising is another example of this, and certainly there are others.
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There are a lot of slow burners on 360, Dead Rising being probably the most famous.
People think that if a game doesn't sell 5 million copies in one day, like GTA IV, Halo 3, etc, then it's a complete failure. They tend to forget that this is a minority. There are way more companies happy to sell software in the 200 - 300k mark and consider it a success.
Atlus pops corks if something hits 100k.
Exactly. If a game sells 50k but all the developer needed was 10k to pull a profit, then that's great. Who cares what forum junkies dictate as a "success" versus "failure"?
Conversely, if a game sells 1 million units but development costs were obscene and the developer/publisher needed 2 million to be sold, then that's a failure.
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When was there any news that Viva Pinata sold over a million?
Recently.
I think there was discussion about it in this here thread.
Now, I think VP was a pack-in for some region, at some point, so that may have inflated the numbers.
The last time we heard the 600,000+ figure was when the developers were jabbering about a sequel or the Ds game or something.
Dead Rising was only a semi-slow burner because it's popularity spread more by word of mouth than a huge 20 million dollar marketing campaign. It took almost half a year, but it eventually scraped just over a million (1.22M) worldwide, which is damn good.
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You know, financial companies could save a lot of money if they fire their analysts and just come to us whenever they need an accurate prediction.
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That would be awesome. I could use some moneyhats.
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Seriously! :P
Anyway, I'm really interested in seeing the NPD and what the actual numbers are that have been aluded to by these various sources.
So far all the pieces are falling into place. Here was the results of a "purchasing poll" done on gamefaqs' front page on April 30, where it fell in line with our predictions as well.
~1.8 is the number. It's going to be great.
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PA VGST Analysts Inc?
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If the ratio was a lot more in the PS3's favor then maybe it really would be "year of the PS3" in 2008. But it seems that things will just continue in roughly the same way going forward.
And it seems that at current prices even GTA cant keep the Wii from defeating all comers single handed.
Who will blink first and try to get an advantage via price cuts?
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They're not going to go out of their way to try to catch Wii, so only thinking about the other might bring about very different decisions.
Perhaps, but there's a big difference between MS and Sony currently. The games division for MS is currently making a profit, and expected to hit target revenue (if not perhaps beat them). That's not the case for Sony.
That said, I'm not sure if that difference means if MS or Sony are more or less likely to cut prices. I do think that historically (aka last year), Sony has shown that they're very much willing to cut prices over the summer, whereas MS has chosen to wait till closer to the Fall.
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Which is why it's quite a shame we only the top ten and a few odd other ones from NPD, because DS game sales are usually pretty healthy, which is something that is rarely reflected by the top ten. The Wii, also, has a pretty strong number of mid-level titles that seem to have a slow but steady burn, even moreso than the other systems, which have more (from what we can tell) front-loaded titles.
We don't even know what system it's for. But considering the lackluster sales for Valkyrie Chronicles in Japan, I wouldn't bet on a PS3 release.
Vyse and Aika being in VC is pretty much confirmation that SOA2 is in the works, thats for sure. You don't put stuff like that in a game for shits and giggles.
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JRPGs don't sell well enough for that strategy to work in America. Seriously, any non-Final Fantasy/Square-Enix JRPG should be fucking ecstatic to even get 50,000 units sold.
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Maybe if you produce games that sell well in the west like Capcom, but if you produce games that usually sell the best in Japan like Square's games, it probably isn't a good idea.
Yep. Viva Pinata sold decently after a total price collapse. I remember some people (perhaps on cheap ass gamer) picking it up for $10 or $15 a few months after release at one of the big box retailers (Target?). That doesn't exactly bode well for the franchise on the 360.
Pretty much. Getting into the top 10 is a must for huge blockbuster games like Halo or Mass Effect, because they've got massive budgets that go into the tens of millions of dollars. But you really can't apply the same logic to games like Viva Pinata with comparatively minuscule budgets.
That said, just because Viva Pinata sold a million copies (which I don't ever remember happening or being discussed btw), doesn't suddenly make it a big success either. I doubt Microsoft is getting much money from it if they were forced to lower price that drastically.
Well SOE do have a couple of other PS3 MMO's in the works (according to wiki, Free Realms and the DC MMO) and NCsoft is PS3 exclusive (though I'd predict that that was becaues of the open online system and standard HDD, rather than a Sony moneyhat), so it's not too far fetched a statement.
I really should point out that the UK != Europe. The UK is the one European country you should expect the 360 version to sell a lot better, seeing as they've still got a sizable lead over the PS3 (though it is apparently getting smaller by the week). I'd expect the PS3 version to do a lot better in continental Europe though, where the 360 support is pretty weak.
Indeed, the article was only talking about the UK. I thought it was speaking more generally about Europe, but it's referring only to Uk. Indeed, the UK is not representative of the entire region.
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Good point. I don't think we know how much that game cost to make. That said, the fact that there was a spinoff created and a sequel already announced, seems to imply that the franchise does have some life. If anything, it serves as one of the few "casual friendly" series that MS can focus on for the 360.
Anyway, back to the top 10 issue, I think it still depends on what the "long tail" phenomenon is like. Has there ever been an example of a "blockbuster" franchise that never made the top 10, yet hung around with decent sales for a loooong time, and ended up making a good profit? I wonder if the aforementioned Dead Rising fits the bill here.
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I see what you did there next-gen.biz
Well played.
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This, so hard. History has shown that in every generation (save SNES vs. Genesis) that sales ratios for each system are established early and never change. Yes, the PS3 is getting MGS4, which looks mind-blowingly awesome. But remember, the Gamecube kept getting awesome games. The Xbox kept getting awesome games -- including Halo 2, which launched with a massive amount of hype. But these awesome games didn't keep either system from being outsold by the PS3 by nearly 5:1.
The same will happen this generation, barring a catastrophy... and hell, the 360's huge red ring problem didn't seem to affect its sales. (Mine red-ringed this week, grrr.)
I've said it before, but I think price cuts this year will come down to Sony. Microsoft is fine with making profits. Sony's reaching profitability, so they might want to hold onto that rather than cut the system price and take a short-term loss in exchange for more buyers in the long run. There's also the possibility that both Sony and Microsoft will look at the Wii and figure "well hell, the market has shown that we don't need price cuts!" Which is a distinct and depressing possibility.
Still, I say that if Sony really has its head in the game, it'll cut the PS3 price for MGS4. Microsoft will invariably follow.