Earlier this year, Hudson Square Research analyst Daniel Ernst issued estimates for Rockstar Games' Grand Theft Auto IV, pegging 2008 sales for the title at 13 million copies. Not a bad take. Analyst analyzers populating the post's comments called that figure into question, with insight ranging from "Durrrr" and "dude is captain obvious" to "unbelievable" and "unrealistic."
Today, Ernst upped his estimate to 15 million on word from Take-Two that the publisher had already sold through 8.5 million copies of GTA IV, with 11 million shipped to retailers. Ernst noted that "We expect GTA IV sales to re-accelerate in the latter part of year in conjunction with the seasonal holiday period."
As for Final Fantasy XIII shipping 7 million in 2008?
Ernst said that "Initially we had hoped it would make it in for the end of the year" but that FFXIII "definitely appears off the table" according to Square Enix guidance. Frankly, we'll be thrilled (and maybe even a bit flabbergasted) if it hits North America before 2010.
The Hudson Square Research analyst updated us on a handful of other key figures, noting that Gran Turismo 5 is also expected to be a "no show" this year and that next week's release of Metal Gear Solid 4 "won't be enough to materially accelerate the PS3 this year."
"For the PS3, that’s definitely a set back," Ernst told us about titles that the firm expects to hit next year, "And I think is why their 10M unit guidance for the [fiscal year] was lower than most had expected."
Earlier this year, Hudson Square Research analyst Daniel Ernst issued estimates for Rockstar Games' Grand Theft Auto IV, pegging 2008 sales for the title at 13 million copies. Not a bad take. Analyst analyzers populating the post's comments called that figure into question, with insight ranging from "Durrrr" and "dude is captain obvious" to "unbelievable" and "unrealistic."
Today, Ernst upped his estimate to 15 million on word from Take-Two that the publisher had already sold through 8.5 million copies of GTA IV, with 11 million shipped to retailers. Ernst noted that "We expect GTA IV sales to re-accelerate in the latter part of year in conjunction with the seasonal holiday period."
As for Final Fantasy XIII shipping 7 million in 2008?
Ernst said that "Initially we had hoped it would make it in for the end of the year" but that FFXIII "definitely appears off the table" according to Square Enix guidance. Frankly, we'll be thrilled (and maybe even a bit flabbergasted) if it hits North America before 2010.
The Hudson Square Research analyst updated us on a handful of other key figures, noting that Gran Turismo 5 is also expected to be a "no show" this year and that next week's release of Metal Gear Solid 4 "won't be enough to materially accelerate the PS3 this year."
"For the PS3, that’s definitely a set back," Ernst told us about titles that the firm expects to hit next year, "And I think is why their 10M unit guidance for the [fiscal year] was lower than most had expected."
lowlylowlycook on
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
15 million? Maybe. I think the first estimate is closer to the final mark. The 360 and PS3 combined are nowhere near enough the install base of the PS2+XBOX to make that realistic.
15 million? Maybe. I think the first estimate is closer to the final mark. The 360 and PS3 combined are nowhere near enough the install base of the PS2+XBOX to make that realistic.
It shipped 11 million. I figure that they expect GTAIV sales slowly decline and then pick up again during the holidays.
15 million? Maybe. I think the first estimate is closer to the final mark. The 360 and PS3 combined are nowhere near enough the install base of the PS2+XBOX to make that realistic.
It shipped 11 million. I figure that they expect GTAIV sales slowly decline and then pick up again during the holidays.
Yup. GTA IV seems to be one of those games that'll linger on the sales chart for a long time, similar to other mainstream franchises (Halo, Madden, Guitar Hero, etc.). What percentage of GTA games in the past were sold in the first 2-3 months versus throughout the rest of its lifetime? My guess is that it's much more spread out than your average 360 hit title, which has amazing sales in the first two month, and then peters out very quickly thereafter.
15 million? Maybe. I think the first estimate is closer to the final mark. The 360 and PS3 combined are nowhere near enough the install base of the PS2+XBOX to make that realistic.
I'm doubtful of 15 million for the same reason you are. With as slowly as the PS360 are selling, GTAIV will have trouble selling that much.
On the other hand, the demographics of 360 and PS3 owners are far different than those of the PS2.
I can see it coming closer than you would expect. The smaller install base is a hinderence but the vast buying power of the owners who consume everything is a boon.
On the other hand, the demographics of 360 and PS3 owners are far different than those of the PS2.
I can see it coming closer than you would expect. The smaller install base is a hinderence but the vast buying power of the owners who consume everything is a boon.
But this cuts both ways. You can get a better attach rate than on the PS2 but I'll bet the sales are more front loaded, as well. People who pay $350+ for a console know if they want GTA or not.
lowlylowlycook on
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
On the other hand, the demographics of 360 and PS3 owners are far different than those of the PS2.
I can see it coming closer than you would expect. The smaller install base is a hinderence but the vast buying power of the owners who consume everything is a boon.
But this cuts both ways. You can get a better attach rate than on the PS2 but I'll bet the sales are more front loaded, as well. People who pay $350+ for a console know if they want GTA or not.
The big question is whether or not people who eventually hunker down and pay $350 for a 360/PS3 (or maybe less, if price cuts happen) will remember to pick up GTA IV as well. Certainly there are some franchises that are almost regardless as "timeless" or "must-buy". I would argue that GTA IV certainly falls in that category.
Noone is buying a console for these games. They are buying these consoles in preparation for these games. Every massive major game release is somehow not met by a significant jump in HW sales? Even the Halo 3 megaton launch bumped the 360 sales a modest amount.
I dont think MGS4 will launch PS3 sales. Nothing will. These consoles are being bought at a constant rate by people because of this:
The people who want a 360 or a PS3 are well informed in the hardcore market. They browse internet forums, they read game news. They know well in advance about these games, exactly when they are arriving and what they are about. So they take no chances, justify their console purchase with this game and get it a little earlier picking up a load of the other games that are out on the console.
Well, that didn't take long. GameStop's weekly ad reveals that the games retailer is moving copies of Haze for the low price of $39.99, a $20 drop from the suggested retail price it launched with less than three weeks ago.
Doesn't GS buy like 2 more copies than they have pre-orders for?
lowlylowlycook on
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
If this is true, then I'm gonna pick up Haze. I didn't buy it after the horrible reviews. Not because I was afraid it sucked (I think it's great), but because I KNEW it would take a huge dive in price. Glad I waited.
I don't know that the sales of GTA IV are going to be as sustained as people are thinking. I think it'll sell fine in the long term, but if you look at the Xbox Live rankings from last week, it's already dropped down to #3 (behind two massively popular games, of course) but that doesn't seem to bode well for its' sustainability.
If this is true, then I'm gonna pick up Haze. I didn't buy it after the horrible reviews. Not because I was afraid it sucked (I think it's great), but because I KNEW it would take a huge dive in price. Glad I waited.
Why not wait even longer? If it has already dropped $20 that fast it'll only drop more in the coming weeks.
In a somewhat bizarre interview with The Times Online, Nancy Smith (head of the Sims division at EA) said that " in light of the popularity of virtual worlds ... the Sims may soon become a multi-player game." The article fails to mention the failed experiment of The Sims Online, later rebranded to "EA-Land" and scheduled for closure in August. But Smith talks of potential new (and old) modes for online play:
Ms Smith was adamant, however, that The Sims would not break wholly with its past, and would continue to require players to buy and install software on their machines before being able to play. Some virtual worlds, such as Club Penguin and Habbo Hotel, can be played entirely within a web browser ....
The Sims franchise would also continue to explore new revenue models that have become associated with virtual worlds, she said, including sponsorship and the sale of 'virtual goods', as on the fashion-focused virtual world for teens, Stardoll.com.
"Well, our MMO failed. We should make a virtual world!"
In a somewhat bizarre interview with The Times Online, Nancy Smith (head of the Sims division at EA) said that " in light of the popularity of virtual worlds ... the Sims may soon become a multi-player game." The article fails to mention the failed experiment of The Sims Online, later rebranded to "EA-Land" and scheduled for closure in August. But Smith talks of potential new (and old) modes for online play:
Ms Smith was adamant, however, that The Sims would not break wholly with its past, and would continue to require players to buy and install software on their machines before being able to play. Some virtual worlds, such as Club Penguin and Habbo Hotel, can be played entirely within a web browser ....
The Sims franchise would also continue to explore new revenue models that have become associated with virtual worlds, she said, including sponsorship and the sale of 'virtual goods', as on the fashion-focused virtual world for teens, Stardoll.com.
"Well, our MMO failed. We should make a virtual world!"
Well, considering the rise of cutsey virtual worlds with bales of microtransactions (like the horrible Webkins thing), it's worth a shot.
Then again, I'm not sure how they could avoid the failure of the Sims online... maybe by mixing both an offline and online component to reel in those wary of playing online.
In other news, Haze is looking like a bit of a disaster both in development and sales.
What say we make NPD sales predictions a bit more interesting?
JCRooks, who works, er, somewhere in the industry, has a pile of stuff lying around the office and has volunteered to give a piece of it to the person who gets closest. If he runs out as the months go by, we'll need volunteers to send some piece of random crap to the winner. It doesn't have to be anything wonderful, just some thingy to signify their superiority in number wrangling.
Here's the rules. Submit your predictions for sales of the PS3, 360, Wii, PS2, DS and PSP, rounded up to the nearest thousand. NPD results are released on the third Thursday of each month. To be fair, submit the numbers by the Sunday before the NPD figures, since preliminary data starts leaking out a few days before and Pachter starts frantically backpedaling from whatever dumbass predictions he's made lately.
Each entry will be scored somewhat like golf. The difference between the prediction and the actual figure, whether above or below, will be counted as a positive number. All the differences will be added up like so:
Conslole Prediction Actual sales Difference
PlayStation 2 128K 124K 4
PlayStation 3 182K 187K 5
PSP 211K 193K 18
Xbox 360 231K 188K 43
Wii 592K 714K 122
Nintendo DS 400K 415K 15
Total score: 207
The person with the lowest score wins.
This month, people who have already submitted numbers can keep them or adjust them before deadline, especially since we got a few joke predictions. Next month everyone can only submit once.
The only place that I might see Haze selling well is in the UK. It fell from the fourth highest ranking game to the sixth highest ranking game this week. It is in eleventh place in Ireland, ninth in the Netherlands, eight in Italy, and eleventh in Norway. Some of these rankings are for the 21st week and others are for the 22nd week. I can see it selling well enough to turn a profit but not well enough to make a sequel.
I was gonna mention putting all the predictions in the 1st post, but i see they are there.
Edit: except mine
Here they are again:
[360] 200k
[NDS] 420k
[PS2] 115k
[PS3] 195k
[PSP] 205k
[WII] Fire of a Million suns (1000k)
bigwah on
LoL Tribunal:
"Was cursing, in broken english at his team, and at our team. made fun of dead family members and mentioned he had sex with a dog."
"Hope he dies tbh but a ban would do."
And just so people don't get their hopes up, this is not amazing stuff I'm talking about. They may be games you already own, or don't care about, or even for systems you don't have. But hey, a prize is a prize. If you guys also have stuff you'd like to donate (maybe a free game you got that you don't want, etc.), feel free to chip in with future NPD predictions.
“I feel good about where the business is. We’ll make money in Xbox this (fiscal) year. That’s the first time we’ve been able to say that. That’s total Xbox business — service, software and hardware.â€
“If you go to assess where we are in connected entertainment, you say, OK, Xbox — making good progress. Almost 20 million consoles in the marketplace, over 10 million in the U.S. Xbox Live doing a fabulous job, 12 million members. Good attach rate, good economics. Nintendo is selling well, so we have to compete with that. There’s some overlap in our two businesses; there’s also places where we just don’t overlap at all, and we’re appealing to
different customers.â€
In the US, there wasn’t much pop for anybody on hardware, and there are a number of things I can point out: First of all, I think both in Europe and the U.S., the idea that there’d be pop right away was probably a fallacy to begin with, because you’re going to sell to the installed base first anyway. They’re the people who pre-reserved, so the first wave of customers are going to be people who already have a console, whether it’s a PS3 or an Xbox. link
I like the totally ad hoc theory of GTA IV not bumping sales. I wonder if MS would rather have this situation or the situation that the analysts were predicting, i.e. a bump for them but a bigger one for the PS3.
lowlylowlycook on
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
01 (01) [WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo) 02 (02) [PS3] Grand Theft Auto Iv (Take Two Interactive)
03 (04) [WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo) 04 (03) [360] Grand Theft Auto Iv (Take Two Interactive)
05 (05) [WII] Wii Play (Nintendo)
06 (06) [NDS] Mario Kart Ds (Nintendo)
07 (08) [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo)
08 (07) [WII] Super Mario Galaxy (Nintendo)
09 (09) [WII] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega)
10 (11) [NDS] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) 11 (10) [PS2] Pro Evolution Soccer 2008 (Konami)
12 (12) [WII] Mario Party 8 (Nintendo)
13 (12) [WII] Big Brain Academy: Wii Degree (Nintendo)
14 (__) [NDS] Brain Training from Dr. Kawashima (Nintendo)
15 (14) [NDS] Mario Party Ds (Nintendo)
16 (13) [WII] Pro Evolution Soccer 2008 (Konami)
17 (__) [NDS] Pokemon Diamond (Nintendo)
18 (16) [NDS] Zoo Tycoon 2 (THQ)
19 (15) [WII] Guitar Hero III: Legends Of Rock (Activision)
20 (19) [NDS] More Brain Training from Dr. Kawashima (Nintendo)
Bolded =non-Nintendo titles
lowlylowlycook on
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
I don't get it. If Italy, Spain etc., are small time, Germany is PC land, France has surrendered to Nintendo and the 360 is holding it's own in the UK, how the hell is Europe supposed to save Sony?
lowlylowlycook on
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
I don't get it. If Italy, Spain etc., are small time, Germany is PC land, France has surrendered to Nintendo and the 360 is holding it's own in the UK, how the hell is Europe supposed to save Sony?
Europe is a known unknown. Because of this, it is pretty much anything you want it to be. Is there a word for where you have little evidence for how something is doing so impose your viewpoint on how you think that something is doing?
Some of the European sales threads in GAF near the gen's start were downright infuriating because people there were spewing absolutely idiotic things, but we couldn't prove that they were being idiots simply because we didn't have numbers.
A little information is a dangerous thing, and all that.
I don't get it. If Italy, Spain etc., are small time, Germany is PC land, France has surrendered to Nintendo and the 360 is holding it's own in the UK, how the hell is Europe supposed to save Sony?
Europe is a known unknown. Because of this, it is pretty much anything you want it to be. Is there a word for where you have little evidence for how something is doing so impose your viewpoint on how you think that something is doing?
Maybe you are looking for Rorschach or inkblot test?
lowlylowlycook on
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
I don't get it. If Italy, Spain etc., are small time, Germany is PC land, France has surrendered to Nintendo and the 360 is holding it's own in the UK, how the hell is Europe supposed to save Sony?
Europe is a known unknown. Because of this, it is pretty much anything you want it to be. Is there a word for where you have little evidence for how something is doing so impose your viewpoint on how you think that something is doing?
Maybe you are looking for Rorschach or inkblot test?
01 (01) [PC] Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures (Eidos)
02 (02) [360] Grand Theft Auto IV (Take 2)
03 (03) [PS3] Grand Theft Auto IV (Take 2)
04 (05) [WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo)
05 (04) [PS2] Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Activision)
06 (11) [PS2] Singstar Svenska hits Schlager (SCE)
07 (__) [PS2] FIFA 2008 (Electronic Arts)
08 (07) [PC] World of Warcraft: The Burning Crusade (Vivendi Games)
09 (__) [360] Race Driver Grid (Codemasters)
10 (__) [PC] Crysis (Electronic Arts)
11 (12) [PC] The Sims 2 FreeTime (Electronic Arts)
12 (08) [PC] The Sims 2 Kitchen and Bath Interior Design Stuff (Electronic Arts)
13 (10) [PC] World of Warcraft (Vivendi Games) 14 (17) [PC] Warcraft III Frozen Throne (Vivendi Games)
15 (09) [PC] Counter-Strike 1: Anthology (Electronic Arts) 16 (16) [PC] Warcraft III Reign Of Chaos (Vivendi Games)
17 (14) [WII] Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Activision)
18 (13) [WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo)
19 (07) [360] FIFA 2008 (Electronic Arts)
20 (20) [PS2] UEFA EURO 2008 (Electronic Arts)
Bolded for what the hell, Sweden, what the hell.
I guess that there's a lot of Swedes, that like me, had their TFT discs break, but didn't know that you can play TFT with the RoC disc or that you actually don't even need the disc to play anymore because of an update or that it's possible to register your CD-key online and download the game anytime you want.
Posts
http://kotaku.com/5013996/analyst-gta-iv-to-hit-15-million-this-year
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
It shipped 11 million. I figure that they expect GTAIV sales slowly decline and then pick up again during the holidays.
Yup. GTA IV seems to be one of those games that'll linger on the sales chart for a long time, similar to other mainstream franchises (Halo, Madden, Guitar Hero, etc.). What percentage of GTA games in the past were sold in the first 2-3 months versus throughout the rest of its lifetime? My guess is that it's much more spread out than your average 360 hit title, which has amazing sales in the first two month, and then peters out very quickly thereafter.
- Don't add me, I'm at/near the friend limit
Steam: JC_Rooks
Twitter: http://twitter.com/JiunweiC
I work on this: http://www.xbox.com
I'm doubtful of 15 million for the same reason you are. With as slowly as the PS360 are selling, GTAIV will have trouble selling that much.
I can see it coming closer than you would expect. The smaller install base is a hinderence but the vast buying power of the owners who consume everything is a boon.
But this cuts both ways. You can get a better attach rate than on the PS2 but I'll bet the sales are more front loaded, as well. People who pay $350+ for a console know if they want GTA or not.
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
The big question is whether or not people who eventually hunker down and pay $350 for a 360/PS3 (or maybe less, if price cuts happen) will remember to pick up GTA IV as well. Certainly there are some franchises that are almost regardless as "timeless" or "must-buy". I would argue that GTA IV certainly falls in that category.
- Don't add me, I'm at/near the friend limit
Steam: JC_Rooks
Twitter: http://twitter.com/JiunweiC
I work on this: http://www.xbox.com
I dont think MGS4 will launch PS3 sales. Nothing will. These consoles are being bought at a constant rate by people because of this:
The people who want a 360 or a PS3 are well informed in the hardcore market. They browse internet forums, they read game news. They know well in advance about these games, exactly when they are arriving and what they are about. So they take no chances, justify their console purchase with this game and get it a little earlier picking up a load of the other games that are out on the console.
So does this mean that when the Wii hits 30mil the console war is over? Sony can't really argue, though the MS folks will.
Doesn't GS buy like 2 more copies than they have pre-orders for?
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
Platinum FC: 2880 3245 5111
It's already over. Has been for a good year.
At least with steady sales of GTA IV this summer will probably not be quite as depressing as last summer was for the HD consoles.
Absolutely. It goes into the Lair category not the Ratchet and Clank one.
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
Why not wait even longer? If it has already dropped $20 that fast it'll only drop more in the coming weeks.
I know my goal was to get a 360 before Halo 3 ideally, and at worst case before Mass Effect.
Gamertag: PrimusD | Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
Well, considering the rise of cutsey virtual worlds with bales of microtransactions (like the horrible Webkins thing), it's worth a shot.
Then again, I'm not sure how they could avoid the failure of the Sims online... maybe by mixing both an offline and online component to reel in those wary of playing online.
In other news, Haze is looking like a bit of a disaster both in development and sales.
JCRooks, who works, er, somewhere in the industry, has a pile of stuff lying around the office and has volunteered to give a piece of it to the person who gets closest. If he runs out as the months go by, we'll need volunteers to send some piece of random crap to the winner. It doesn't have to be anything wonderful, just some thingy to signify their superiority in number wrangling.
Here's the rules. Submit your predictions for sales of the PS3, 360, Wii, PS2, DS and PSP, rounded up to the nearest thousand. NPD results are released on the third Thursday of each month. To be fair, submit the numbers by the Sunday before the NPD figures, since preliminary data starts leaking out a few days before and Pachter starts frantically backpedaling from whatever dumbass predictions he's made lately.
Each entry will be scored somewhat like golf. The difference between the prediction and the actual figure, whether above or below, will be counted as a positive number. All the differences will be added up like so:
Conslole Prediction Actual sales Difference
PlayStation 2 128K 124K 4
PlayStation 3 182K 187K 5
PSP 211K 193K 18
Xbox 360 231K 188K 43
Wii 592K 714K 122
Nintendo DS 400K 415K 15
Total score: 207
The person with the lowest score wins.
This month, people who have already submitted numbers can keep them or adjust them before deadline, especially since we got a few joke predictions. Next month everyone can only submit once.
Good luck!
PlayStation 3 210k
PSP 200k
Xbox 360 210k
Wii 750k
Nintendo DS 400k
Edit: except mine
Here they are again:
[360] 200k
[NDS] 420k
[PS2] 115k
[PS3] 195k
[PSP] 205k
[WII] Fire of a Million suns (1000k)
"Was cursing, in broken english at his team, and at our team. made fun of dead family members and mentioned he had sex with a dog."
"Hope he dies tbh but a ban would do."
Playstation 3 200k
PSP 180k
XBox 360 203k
Wii 770k
Nintendo DS 500k
Zeboyd Games Development Blog
Steam ID : rwb36, Twitter : Werezompire, Facebook : Zeboyd Games
And just so people don't get their hopes up, this is not amazing stuff I'm talking about. They may be games you already own, or don't care about, or even for systems you don't have. But hey, a prize is a prize. If you guys also have stuff you'd like to donate (maybe a free game you got that you don't want, etc.), feel free to chip in with future NPD predictions.
Woo, less than a week till NPDs!
- Don't add me, I'm at/near the friend limit
Steam: JC_Rooks
Twitter: http://twitter.com/JiunweiC
I work on this: http://www.xbox.com
PlayStation 3 183K
PSP 199K
Xbox 360 190K
Wii 799K
Nintendo DS 420K
I like the totally ad hoc theory of GTA IV not bumping sales. I wonder if MS would rather have this situation or the situation that the analysts were predicting, i.e. a bump for them but a bigger one for the PS3.
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
(source = gaf, of course)
Bolded for what the hell, Sweden, what the hell.
Those LTDs don't seem very high to me.
Bolded =non-Nintendo titles
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
Europe is a known unknown. Because of this, it is pretty much anything you want it to be. Is there a word for where you have little evidence for how something is doing so impose your viewpoint on how you think that something is doing?
Some of the European sales threads in GAF near the gen's start were downright infuriating because people there were spewing absolutely idiotic things, but we couldn't prove that they were being idiots simply because we didn't have numbers.
A little information is a dangerous thing, and all that.
Platinum FC: 2880 3245 5111
Maybe you are looking for Rorschach or inkblot test?
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
That sounds about right.
I played it for a while. It was both
I guess that there's a lot of Swedes, that like me, had their TFT discs break, but didn't know that you can play TFT with the RoC disc or that you actually don't even need the disc to play anymore because of an update or that it's possible to register your CD-key online and download the game anytime you want.
Or maybe Swedes are just fucked up.