Got everyone's guesses so far, I think. Let me know if I missed anyone. NPD numbers drop the 19th I think, so you've got till Sunday the 15th to get them in.
Hey! MistaCreepy! Want to put in an actual guess? There's prizes involved...
If there aren't any complaints (I solemnly swear that I don't have insider access to NPD numbers at all) I'll throw my hat in the ring....
I don't doubt that Nintendo probably tried to get more Wii's in the pipeline for Wii Fit launch, but they probably tried to do the same thing for Mario Kart. If they ended up sending more for Mario Kart, the numbers could be a little low---but if the increases in hardware managed to overlap with the May reporting period---the numbers could be quite epic indeed.
I don't doubt that Nintendo probably tried to get more Wii's in the pipeline for Wii Fit launch, but they probably tried to do the same thing for Mario Kart. If they ended up sending more for Mario Kart, the numbers could be a little low---but if the increases in hardware managed to overlap with the May reporting period---the numbers could be quite epic indeed.
Well, Wii Fit has the biggest advertising budget of ANYTHING Nintendo of America has ever done, while Mario Kart didn't. Not to mention the mainstream media/morning show blitz. With that kind of a strategy I'm betting Nintendo may push a few extra out in May to take advantage.
Still, we'll see.
Edit: Yup, Europe sure is PC-land.
I know, I know, that's just the UK figures, but it looks like PC games are vastly more popular in some countries than others. (See: Sweden)
I think we better close the predictions,oh, right about now:
Despite record-breaking sales and levels of hype never before seen for a video game launch, Grand Theft Auto IV had no discernible effect on PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360hardware sales for the month of May.
The ominous news was delivered by two separate analysts firms, Lazard Capital Markets and Wedbush Morgan Securities, as part of their monthly NPD preview report.
"We do not believe the recent release of GTA IV has generated meaningful incremental demand for the Xbox 360 or PS3 platforms," said Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets.
Analyst Micheal Pachter added that further price cuts could do more than GTA IV to boost console sales.
"Next generation console unit sales are running well ahead of the level in the analogous period of 2003 (when console prices averaged under USD 200), implying room for significant sales growth as price cuts are implemented," Pachter explained.
The news does not bode well for Sony, whose executives have continually flaunted Metal Gear Solid 4 as a "killer application" for the PS3. Killer applications, by definition, are software titles that sell more systems.
I think we better close the predictions,oh, right about now:
Despite record-breaking sales and levels of hype never before seen for a video game launch, Grand Theft Auto IV had no discernible effect on PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360hardware sales for the month of May.
The ominous news was delivered by two separate analysts firms, Lazard Capital Markets and Wedbush Morgan Securities, as part of their monthly NPD preview report.
"We do not believe the recent release of GTA IV has generated meaningful incremental demand for the Xbox 360 or PS3 platforms," said Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets.
Analyst Micheal Pachter added that further price cuts could do more than GTA IV to boost console sales.
"Next generation console unit sales are running well ahead of the level in the analogous period of 2003 (when console prices averaged under USD 200), implying room for significant sales growth as price cuts are implemented," Pachter explained.
The news does not bode well for Sony, whose executives have continually flaunted Metal Gear Solid 4 as a "killer application" for the PS3. Killer applications, by definition, are software titles that sell more systems.
Heh, There are so few WiiFits in the UK that it dropped out of the Wii Top 50
Wii UK Top50:
- 1 LEGO INDIANA JONES: ORIGINAL ADVENTURES TRAVELLER'S TALES LUCASARTS LUCASARTS
2 2 MARIO & SONIC AT THE OLYMPIC GAMES SEGA SEGA SEGA
1 3 WII PLAY NINTENDO NINTENDO NINTENDO
3 4 MARIO KART WII NINTENDO NINTENDO NINTENDO
- 5 SPORTS ISLAND HUDSON KONAMI KONAMI
7 6 CARNIVAL: FUNFAIR GAMES CAT DADDY 2KPLAY TAKE 2
10 7 GAME PARTY MIDWAY MIDWAY MIDWAY
43 8 LINK'S CROSSBOW TRAINING NINTENDO NINTENDO NINTENDO
4 9 SEGA SUPERSTARS TENNIS SUMO DIGITAL SEGA SEGA
9 10 BOOM BLOX EA LA EA GAMES ELECTRONIC ARTS
6 11 SONIC AND THE SECRET RINGS SONIC TEAM SEGA SEGA
8 12 PRO EVOLUTION SOCCER 2008 KONAMI DIGITAL ENTERTAINMENT KONAMI KONAMI
5 13 BIG BRAIN ACADEMY: WII DEGREE NINTENDO NINTENDO NINTENDO
11 14 GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK NEVERSOFT REDOCTANE ACTIVISION
12 15 SUPER MARIO GALAXY NINTENDO NINTENDO NINTENDO
14 16 SUPER MONKEY BALL: BANANA BLITZ SEGA SEGA SEGA
16 17 RAYMAN RAVING RABBIDS 2 UBISOFT (FRANCE) UBISOFT UBISOFT
19 18 TIGER WOODS PGA TOUR 08 EA SALT LAKE EA SPORTS ELECTRONIC ARTS
15 19 COOKING MAMA OFFICE CREATE 505 GAMES 505 GAMES
18 20 LEGO STAR WARS: THE COMPLETE SAGA TRAVELLER'S TALES LUCASARTS LUCASARTS
13 21 THE HOUSE OF THE DEAD 2 & 3 RETURN SEGA SEGA SEGA
17 22 TOMB RAIDER: ANNIVERSARY CRYSTAL DYNAMICS EIDOS EIDOS
23 23 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL: SING IT! A2M DISNEY INTERACTIVE STUDIOS DISNEY INTERACTIVE STUDIOS
22 24 CSI: HARD EVIDENCE TELLTALE GAMES UBISOFT UBISOFT
29 25 GHOST SQUAD SEGA SEGA SEGA
20 26 MARIO PARTY 8 HUDSON NINTENDO NINTENDO
25 27 CALL OF DUTY 3 TREYARCH ACTIVISION ACTIVISION
21 28 FIFA 08 EA CANADA EA SPORTS ELECTRONIC ARTS
24 29 RED STEEL UBISOFT (FRANCE) UBISOFT UBISOFT
31 30 SONIC RIDERS: ZERO GRAVITY SONIC TEAM SEGA SEGA
40 31 CARS INCINERATOR GAMES THQ THQ
36 32 PDC WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP DARTS 08 MERE MORTALS OXYGEN INTERACTIVE OXYGEN INTERACTIVE
27 33 BATTLE OF THE BANDS PLANET MOON STUDIOS THQ THQ
32 34 ROCKSTAR GAMES PRESENTS TABLE TENNIS ROCKSTAR LEEDS ROCKSTAR TAKE 2
28 35 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD'S END EUROCOM ENTERTAINMENT DISNEY INTERACTIVE STUDIOS DISNEY INTERACTIVE STUDIOS
30 36 SPEED RACER: THE VIDEO GAME SIDHE WARNER BROS. INTERACTIVE WARNER BROS. INTERACTIVE
26 37 WINTER SPORTS 2008: ULTIMATE CHALLENGE 49GAMES RTL ACTIVISION
37 38 WORMS: A SPACE ODDITY TEAM 17 THQ THQ
35 39 RATATOUILLE ASOBO STUDIO THQ THQ
- 40 ENDLESS OCEAN ARIKA NINTENDO NINTENDO
34 41 IRON MAN: THE OFFICIAL VIDEOGAME A2M SEGA SEGA
33 42 THE DOG ISLAND YUKE'S GAMES FOR EVERYONE UBISOFT
41 43 THE LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS NINTENDO NINTENDO NINTENDO
47 44 WWE SMACKDOWN VS RAW 2008 YUKE'S THQ THQ
39 45 SEGA BASS FISHING CAVIA SEGA SEGA
38 46 DANCING STAGE HOTTEST PARTY KONAMI DIGITAL ENTERTAINMENT KONAMI KONAMI
48 47 DRAGON QUEST SWORDS: MASKED QUEEN 8ING SQUARE ENIX SQUARE ENIX EUROPE
- 48 BRATZ: THE MOVIE BLITZ GAMES THQ THQ
- 49 SUPER PAPER MARIO INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS NINTENDO NINTENDO
- 50 SPONGEBOB: ATLANTIS SQUAREPANTIS BLITZ GAMES THQ THQ
lowlylowlycook on
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
I think we better close the predictions,oh, right about now:
Despite record-breaking sales and levels of hype never before seen for a video game launch, Grand Theft Auto IV had no discernible effect on PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360hardware sales for the month of May.
The ominous news was delivered by two separate analysts firms, Lazard Capital Markets and Wedbush Morgan Securities, as part of their monthly NPD preview report.
"We do not believe the recent release of GTA IV has generated meaningful incremental demand for the Xbox 360 or PS3 platforms," said Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets.
Analyst Micheal Pachter added that further price cuts could do more than GTA IV to boost console sales.
"Next generation console unit sales are running well ahead of the level in the analogous period of 2003 (when console prices averaged under USD 200), implying room for significant sales growth as price cuts are implemented," Pachter explained.
The news does not bode well for Sony, whose executives have continually flaunted Metal Gear Solid 4 as a "killer application" for the PS3. Killer applications, by definition, are software titles that sell more systems.
Shit. Agreed, this makes things too easy for predictions. (Yes, got mine in just before deadline!)
And what the hell, I'm agreeing with something Pachter said? Maybe he's finally joining reality?
He's absolutely right. The 360 and PS3 both NEED price cuts, right now. It's looking like they've stalled, and the fact that this has happened with GTA out makes the situation even more dire.
Shacknews is reporting, via "a reliable source," that once Star Wars: The Force Unleashed drops in mid-September, LucasArts will pinkslip another 100 employees and quit internal development.
Force Unleashed is the first internally developed 360 and PS3 title for LA, and the first LA-developed title since Republic Commando for the Xbox in 2005. There is, as Yoda might say, another ...
That would be the untitled Indiana Jones third-person actioner, and according to Shacknews, the remainder of its work, left after The Force Unleashed hits the street, will be outsourced. Shacknews notes that past and present development partners include TT Games, Day 1, BioWare, Pandemic and, reaching way back, Totally Games (X-Wing, TIE Fighter).
If that happens Lucasarts is dead to me.
Um, I think if that happens LucasArts will be dead in general.
This doesn't sound good for the Force Unleashed. I mean if the game turned out fuck awesome LA wouldn't be firing everyone right? I just don't understand why this studio has struggled so hard over the years. I mean you have more money than god and some of the most compelling licenses out there, you pretty much have to be trying to fuck up to fail.
So I'm guessing that if there's going to be anything developed internally from LucasArts it's going to be from that animation studio that they set up in Singapore a few years back. But really, makin' vidja games is hard work. So much easier to let other people do it and have them pay you to use your IPs and marketing machine.
Should we put Mistahcreepy on suicidewatch now or when June's NPD numbers are released?
There's still room for him to say "no, surely the advance data is wrong!" but considering how depressed he got with the May figures I'd say we should start quietly removing all the sharp objects around him.
Shacknews is reporting, via "a reliable source," that once Star Wars: The Force Unleashed drops in mid-September, LucasArts will pinkslip another 100 employees and quit internal development.
Force Unleashed is the first internally developed 360 and PS3 title for LA, and the first LA-developed title since Republic Commando for the Xbox in 2005. There is, as Yoda might say, another ...
That would be the untitled Indiana Jones third-person actioner, and according to Shacknews, the remainder of its work, left after The Force Unleashed hits the street, will be outsourced. Shacknews notes that past and present development partners include TT Games, Day 1, BioWare, Pandemic and, reaching way back, Totally Games (X-Wing, TIE Fighter).
If that happens Lucasarts is dead to me.
Um, I think if that happens LucasArts will be dead in general.
This doesn't sound good for the Force Unleashed. I mean if the game turned out fuck awesome LA wouldn't be firing everyone right? I just don't understand why this studio has struggled so hard over the years. I mean you have more money than god and some of the most compelling licenses out there, you pretty much have to be trying to fuck up to fail.
So I'm guessing that if there's going to be anything developed internally from LucasArts it's going to be from that animation studio that they set up in Singapore a few years back. But really, makin' vidja games is hard work. So much easier to let other people do it and have them pay you to use your IPs and marketing machine.
And they've just combined Euphoria animation with the DMM physics stuff, which just looks absolutely fantastic. They'd better not let that technology go afterwards
darleysam on
0
RingoHe/Hima distinct lack of substanceRegistered Userregular
I think we better close the predictions,oh, right about now:
Despite record-breaking sales and levels of hype never before seen for a video game launch, Grand Theft Auto IV had no discernible effect on PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360hardware sales for the month of May.
The ominous news was delivered by two separate analysts firms, Lazard Capital Markets and Wedbush Morgan Securities, as part of their monthly NPD preview report.
"We do not believe the recent release of GTA IV has generated meaningful incremental demand for the Xbox 360 or PS3 platforms," said Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets.
Analyst Micheal Pachter added that further price cuts could do more than GTA IV to boost console sales.
"Next generation console unit sales are running well ahead of the level in the analogous period of 2003 (when console prices averaged under USD 200), implying room for significant sales growth as price cuts are implemented," Pachter explained.
The news does not bode well for Sony, whose executives have continually flaunted Metal Gear Solid 4 as a "killer application" for the PS3. Killer applications, by definition, are software titles that sell more systems.
Remember when some analysts were saying it would have a delayed effect?
I just reread the first 15 or so pages of this thread last night. Now I might have to do it again
Oh and this part is interesting:
"Next generation console unit sales are running well ahead of the level in the analogous period of 2003 (when console prices averaged under USD 200), implying room for significant sales growth as price cuts are implemented," Pachter explained.
It really only makes sense if PS3/360 sales are "well ahead of 2003 sales" and that all those people who haven't jumped from the PS2 want the new console but are just unwilling at the current price point. However if Pachter is saying that the Wii/PS3/360 sales are higher (which is what it looks like) there's a far greater chance that all those PS2 people have already made the jump to the Wii and may not spring for a second console even at a lower price point.
Basically I think Pachter's setting himself up to look foolish again.
I guess it really depends on what the figure was for multiple console ownership last gen, and then calculating how many consoles would need to be sold to match that figure this gen. That sounds like it should be the total increase you'll see for the PS360 at the lower price point.
Got everyone's guesses so far, I think. Let me know if I missed anyone. NPD numbers drop the 19th I think, so you've got till Sunday the 15th to get them in.
NPD is actually this week, the 12th. Super-fast month. Anyway, some professionals and their estimates -
Shacknews is reporting, via "a reliable source," that once Star Wars: The Force Unleashed drops in mid-September, LucasArts will pinkslip another 100 employees and quit internal development.
Force Unleashed is the first internally developed 360 and PS3 title for LA, and the first LA-developed title since Republic Commando for the Xbox in 2005. There is, as Yoda might say, another ...
That would be the untitled Indiana Jones third-person actioner, and according to Shacknews, the remainder of its work, left after The Force Unleashed hits the street, will be outsourced. Shacknews notes that past and present development partners include TT Games, Day 1, BioWare, Pandemic and, reaching way back, Totally Games (X-Wing, TIE Fighter).
If that happens Lucasarts is dead to me.
Um, I think if that happens LucasArts will be dead in general.
This doesn't sound good for the Force Unleashed. I mean if the game turned out fuck awesome LA wouldn't be firing everyone right? I just don't understand why this studio has struggled so hard over the years. I mean you have more money than god and some of the most compelling licenses out there, you pretty much have to be trying to fuck up to fail.
So I'm guessing that if there's going to be anything developed internally from LucasArts it's going to be from that animation studio that they set up in Singapore a few years back. But really, makin' vidja games is hard work. So much easier to let other people do it and have them pay you to use your IPs and marketing machine.
And they've just combined Euphoria animation with the DMM physics stuff, which just looks absolutely fantastic. They'd better not let that technology go afterwards
The dollar's down, workers in Singapore are cheap - sounds like the perfect time to outsource! I had forgotten about the Euphoria and DMM stuff, and now that you brought it up it makes perfect sense to develope it and sell it like Epic Games does with the Unreal Engine. Of course, if they fire their development teams it doesn't look like they'll be much in the market to update the engines, but that's a problem that doesn't mean much versus next year's bottom line.
I'm actually pretty interested in seeing how Ninja Gaiden 2 will affect 360 sales.
Somewhere in the area of 0%, give or take 0%.
If GTA doesn't do it, nothing will.
I meant to throw "In Japan" in there.
Anyway. Where are these leaked numbers and what are these prizes? I see some numbers from Pachter up there, but he has the 360 outselling the PS3, which leads me to believe that those numbers are completely fabricated.
Anyway. Where are these leaked numbers and what are these prizes? I see some numbers from Pachter up there, but he has the 360 outselling the PS3, which leads me to believe that those numbers are completely fabricated.
Despite record-breaking sales and levels of hype never before seen for a video game launch, Grand Theft Auto IV had no discernible effect on PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 hardware sales for the month of May.
The ominous news was delivered by two separate analysts firms, Lazard Capital Markets and Wedbush Morgan Securities, as part of their monthly NPD preview report.
"We do not believe the recent release of GTA IV has generated meaningful incremental demand for the Xbox 360 or PS3 platforms," said Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets.
Analyst Micheal Pachter added that further price cuts could do more than GTA IV to boost console sales.
I'm actually pretty interested in seeing how Ninja Gaiden 2 will affect 360 sales.
Somewhere in the area of 0%, give or take 0%.
If GTA doesn't do it, nothing will.
I meant to throw "In Japan" in there.
Anyway. Where are these leaked numbers and what are these prizes? I see some numbers from Pachter up there, but he has the 360 outselling the PS3, which leads me to believe that those numbers are completely fabricated.
Why wouldn't it? It's a bit cheaper. Now next month MGS might put the PS3 over the top of the 360. Of course given 5 weeks of sales the Wii should put up a monster number again.
lowlylowlycook on
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
Not one whit. It's a good seller but not a stellar one, and console sales went down when the monster that is GTA4 came out.
I meant in Japan!
Why wouldn't it? It's a bit cheaper. Now next month MGS might put the PS3 over the top of the 360. Of course given 5 weeks of sales the Wii should put up a monster number again.
I've only seen you recently posting here in this thread. You must have missed the Pachter hate.
It'll be awhile before we have any idea on this one, but I think that Lego Indiana Jones for the Wii could be one to watch out for in the June NPD. I've sold about 20 so far (sold out of first shipment), which is pretty good in terms of new release games.
For comparisons sake, I've sold about 30 Ninja Gaiden II. If LIJ gets enough stock out there, it seems pretty feasible that it might win in June.
Got everyone's guesses so far, I think. Let me know if I missed anyone. NPD numbers drop the 19th I think, so you've got till Sunday the 15th to get them in.
NPD is actually this week, the 12th. Super-fast month. Anyway, some professionals and their estimates -
Your consoles are too expensive to meet the sales targets you think they should be meeting.
Reduce their price and the sales will increase.
Sincerely,
Your key demographics.
Don't you own both a 360 and PS3?
And a Wii too.
But while my Wii gets maybe less than 10% of my total game playing time, it was the easiest purchase decision because its so fucking cheap.
You cant ever impulse buy a PS3 or a 360. I got a 360 on European launch (still working today after 3 RROD near misses) and a PS3 last christmas. Both purchases were thought out for a while and the only real reason I have both is because I am the hardest of hardcore gamer.
I bought my Wii as a complete impulse buy while out shopping for something else.
I have no doubt if the 360 or the PS3 were say, 100 dollars cheaper they would have much improved sales, not just short term because of a price drop but sustained sales increases.
They are just too expensive to sell to a large proportion of the market. The market the Wii is raping face with.
Price has and will always be the first and most important barrier to entry. We have been saying that for the last 5 years.
Microsoft will have to design the Xbox 720 to be much cheaper, I expect something akin to the Wii, not in control perhaps but building on the same kind of hardware platform as the 360. Dont know what Sony can do with so many of their eggs in the PS3 basket for their 10 year plan.
Gaming is all just too expensive for the people these companies are trying to sell to. I know so many people who WANT to play games and own all of these consoles but cant afford it. And they arent poor. Its just a purchase they cant justify for circa $700
Your consoles are too expensive to meet the sales targets you think they should be meeting.
Reduce their price and the sales will increase.
Sincerely,
Your key demographics.
Don't you own both a 360 and PS3?
And a Wii too.
But while my Wii gets maybe less than 10% of my total game playing time, it was the easiest purchase decision because its so fucking cheap.
You cant ever impulse buy a PS3 or a 360. I got a 360 on European launch (still working today after 3 RROD near misses) and a PS3 last christmas. Both purchases were thought out for a while and the only real reason I have both is because I am the hardest of hardcore gamer.
I bought my Wii as a complete impulse buy while out shopping for something else.
I have no doubt if the 360 or the PS3 were say, 100 dollars cheaper they would have much improved sales, not just short term because of a price drop but sustained sales increases.
They are just too expensive to sell to a large proportion of the market. The market the Wii is raping face with.
Price has and will always be the first and most important barrier to entry. We have been saying that for the last 5 years.
Microsoft will have to design the Xbox 720 to be much cheaper, I expect something akin to the Wii, not in control perhaps but building on the same kind of hardware platform as the 360. Dont know what Sony can do with so many of their eggs in the PS3 basket for their 10 year plan.
Gaming is all just too expensive for the people these companies are trying to sell to. I know so many people who WANT to play games and own all of these consoles but cant afford it. And they arent poor. Its just a purchase they cant justify for circa $700
I am an unmarried 20-something male who earns enough to have a gaming hobby - basically the ideal demographic. I own a Wii and desire to buy another console, but cannot justify paying as much as they are asking for either console right now. A price drop, while perhaps not causing me to purchase immediately, would eventually (once I deemed that I have enough in my slush fund again - been travelling a lot lately) cause me to purchase one.
Also, this whole 'multiple SKUs' thing pisses me the hell off, and I'm considering the first tier which has all functionality, but perhaps not some of the features (ie, having a hard drive is functionality, having an obscenely huge hard drive is a feature) to be the "price." Get that into range and we'll talk.
Although the company has avoided a significant price reduction of the Xbox 360 since release in late 2005, analysts and industry watchers expect a cut in time for the Christmas period.
"We are well aware that the sweet spot of the market is really 199 bucks," said Hufford, speaking to Bloomberg.
Activision CEO Bobby Kotick believes the PS3 and Xbox 360 must be priced at $199 within the next two years in order to obtain mass appeal. Speaking with Reuters, he believes the Wii has set a standard of expectation and that consumers notice price over tech specs. He goes on to say that "all will need to be at that $199 price point" in the next two years and that the Wii will likely drop to $129 within a "few years."
"The $199 price point for PlayStation 2 has always been part of Sony Computer Entertainment America's strategy to bring the world's leading computer entertainment system to the broadest audience," said Kaz Hirai, president and chief operating officer, Sony Computer Entertainment America Inc.
It's our goal, and it's always been our goal, to reach beyond the core audience to the outskirts of the mass-market audience, and to supercede our own business goals. We are tracking 2.5 to 3 times better sales with PS2 than we were relative to this point in time with PlayStation, and we feel that a $100 reduction is where we need to be now and for the foreseeable future.
They all know that's the price-point to be at but for some reason they're just letting Nintendo sit right there, plugging away at the mass market. The PS2 had 30 million sales before the price hit the magic level, the other 90 million came after it was $199. People can argue value for dollar, inflation, whatever they want but 200 bucks is the price the masses have settled on for buying video games systems.
I think it's not a pure price-point thing per se---if it was purely about price I don't think we'd have so many people who buy a Wii, three games, and an extra controller + nunchuk. It's more about the perceived value of the product--waggle, whether or not you want to dismiss it as a good control scheme---adds to the perceived value of the product for a lot of people. As much as people believe that the Wii's graphics make it feel old and busted, that extra functionality makes it seem much more "new" to a lot of people than the other products available. You'd be surprised how many people are shocked that the Wii costs less than the other consoles.
Blu-ray does add some value to the PS3---but it's improvements on picture quality aren't applicable to everyone's home theater systems, nor does the mantra "it looks x times better" seem to be inspirational to a lot of people. The 360 doesn't really have anything along those lines that adds to its' value in the same way, which has proven effective against the PS3, but not the Wii.
There's something to be said about perceived value... the Gamecube didn't sell well despite being $100 bucks lower because it was dismissed as weak and "teh kiddy." (In other words, it was considered to be below-average) In this case, it looks like the mass market doesn't really care all that much about Blu-ray or online gaming.
That said, a price drop would really, really get the 360 and PS3 selling. The market perception of these two seems to be "average console," so I think the $199 sweet spot still applies. I think the problem is both cost (both consoles have been losing money for varying reasons) and pride (Microsoft and Sony bet heavily on raw tech winning the war for them, and having to cut the price to the Wii's levels might be like admitting defeat).
Posts
Hey! MistaCreepy! Want to put in an actual guess? There's prizes involved...
If there aren't any complaints (I solemnly swear that I don't have insider access to NPD numbers at all) I'll throw my hat in the ring....
[360] 190k
[NDS] 450k
[PS2] 90k
[PS3] 180k
[PSP] 170k
[WII] 950k
Yeah, I'm putting faith in a Wii boost to match Wii Fit. We'll see soon enough if it was misplaced...
Edit: Jesus, morale can't be great at everyone remaining at Lucasarts.
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
Well, Wii Fit has the biggest advertising budget of ANYTHING Nintendo of America has ever done, while Mario Kart didn't. Not to mention the mainstream media/morning show blitz. With that kind of a strategy I'm betting Nintendo may push a few extra out in May to take advantage.
Still, we'll see.
Edit: Yup, Europe sure is PC-land.
I know, I know, that's just the UK figures, but it looks like PC games are vastly more popular in some countries than others. (See: Sweden)
Steam ID: slashx000______Twitter: @bill_at_zeboyd______ Facebook: Zeboyd Games
[edit]
Oh, source = gaf, obviously.
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
Not in the UK it doesnt.
Remember when some analysts were saying it would have a delayed effect?
Wii UK Top50:
- 1 LEGO INDIANA JONES: ORIGINAL ADVENTURES TRAVELLER'S TALES LUCASARTS LUCASARTS
2 2 MARIO & SONIC AT THE OLYMPIC GAMES SEGA SEGA SEGA
1 3 WII PLAY NINTENDO NINTENDO NINTENDO
3 4 MARIO KART WII NINTENDO NINTENDO NINTENDO
- 5 SPORTS ISLAND HUDSON KONAMI KONAMI
7 6 CARNIVAL: FUNFAIR GAMES CAT DADDY 2KPLAY TAKE 2
10 7 GAME PARTY MIDWAY MIDWAY MIDWAY
43 8 LINK'S CROSSBOW TRAINING NINTENDO NINTENDO NINTENDO
4 9 SEGA SUPERSTARS TENNIS SUMO DIGITAL SEGA SEGA
9 10 BOOM BLOX EA LA EA GAMES ELECTRONIC ARTS
6 11 SONIC AND THE SECRET RINGS SONIC TEAM SEGA SEGA
8 12 PRO EVOLUTION SOCCER 2008 KONAMI DIGITAL ENTERTAINMENT KONAMI KONAMI
5 13 BIG BRAIN ACADEMY: WII DEGREE NINTENDO NINTENDO NINTENDO
11 14 GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK NEVERSOFT REDOCTANE ACTIVISION
12 15 SUPER MARIO GALAXY NINTENDO NINTENDO NINTENDO
14 16 SUPER MONKEY BALL: BANANA BLITZ SEGA SEGA SEGA
16 17 RAYMAN RAVING RABBIDS 2 UBISOFT (FRANCE) UBISOFT UBISOFT
19 18 TIGER WOODS PGA TOUR 08 EA SALT LAKE EA SPORTS ELECTRONIC ARTS
15 19 COOKING MAMA OFFICE CREATE 505 GAMES 505 GAMES
18 20 LEGO STAR WARS: THE COMPLETE SAGA TRAVELLER'S TALES LUCASARTS LUCASARTS
13 21 THE HOUSE OF THE DEAD 2 & 3 RETURN SEGA SEGA SEGA
17 22 TOMB RAIDER: ANNIVERSARY CRYSTAL DYNAMICS EIDOS EIDOS
23 23 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL: SING IT! A2M DISNEY INTERACTIVE STUDIOS DISNEY INTERACTIVE STUDIOS
22 24 CSI: HARD EVIDENCE TELLTALE GAMES UBISOFT UBISOFT
29 25 GHOST SQUAD SEGA SEGA SEGA
20 26 MARIO PARTY 8 HUDSON NINTENDO NINTENDO
25 27 CALL OF DUTY 3 TREYARCH ACTIVISION ACTIVISION
21 28 FIFA 08 EA CANADA EA SPORTS ELECTRONIC ARTS
24 29 RED STEEL UBISOFT (FRANCE) UBISOFT UBISOFT
31 30 SONIC RIDERS: ZERO GRAVITY SONIC TEAM SEGA SEGA
40 31 CARS INCINERATOR GAMES THQ THQ
36 32 PDC WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP DARTS 08 MERE MORTALS OXYGEN INTERACTIVE OXYGEN INTERACTIVE
27 33 BATTLE OF THE BANDS PLANET MOON STUDIOS THQ THQ
32 34 ROCKSTAR GAMES PRESENTS TABLE TENNIS ROCKSTAR LEEDS ROCKSTAR TAKE 2
28 35 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD'S END EUROCOM ENTERTAINMENT DISNEY INTERACTIVE STUDIOS DISNEY INTERACTIVE STUDIOS
30 36 SPEED RACER: THE VIDEO GAME SIDHE WARNER BROS. INTERACTIVE WARNER BROS. INTERACTIVE
26 37 WINTER SPORTS 2008: ULTIMATE CHALLENGE 49GAMES RTL ACTIVISION
37 38 WORMS: A SPACE ODDITY TEAM 17 THQ THQ
35 39 RATATOUILLE ASOBO STUDIO THQ THQ
- 40 ENDLESS OCEAN ARIKA NINTENDO NINTENDO
34 41 IRON MAN: THE OFFICIAL VIDEOGAME A2M SEGA SEGA
33 42 THE DOG ISLAND YUKE'S GAMES FOR EVERYONE UBISOFT
41 43 THE LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS NINTENDO NINTENDO NINTENDO
47 44 WWE SMACKDOWN VS RAW 2008 YUKE'S THQ THQ
39 45 SEGA BASS FISHING CAVIA SEGA SEGA
38 46 DANCING STAGE HOTTEST PARTY KONAMI DIGITAL ENTERTAINMENT KONAMI KONAMI
48 47 DRAGON QUEST SWORDS: MASKED QUEEN 8ING SQUARE ENIX SQUARE ENIX EUROPE
- 48 BRATZ: THE MOVIE BLITZ GAMES THQ THQ
- 49 SUPER PAPER MARIO INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS NINTENDO NINTENDO
- 50 SPONGEBOB: ATLANTIS SQUAREPANTIS BLITZ GAMES THQ THQ
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
Shit. Agreed, this makes things too easy for predictions. (Yes, got mine in just before deadline!)
And what the hell, I'm agreeing with something Pachter said? Maybe he's finally joining reality?
He's absolutely right. The 360 and PS3 both NEED price cuts, right now. It's looking like they've stalled, and the fact that this has happened with GTA out makes the situation even more dire.
Dude's got to wake up as himself every morning. I'd say if he's made it this far, he's safe.
I'm only kidding, I personally think Creepy's alright
There's still room for him to say "no, surely the advance data is wrong!" but considering how depressed he got with the May figures I'd say we should start quietly removing all the sharp objects around him.
And they've just combined Euphoria animation with the DMM physics stuff, which just looks absolutely fantastic. They'd better not let that technology go afterwards
Oh and this part is interesting: It really only makes sense if PS3/360 sales are "well ahead of 2003 sales" and that all those people who haven't jumped from the PS2 want the new console but are just unwilling at the current price point. However if Pachter is saying that the Wii/PS3/360 sales are higher (which is what it looks like) there's a far greater chance that all those PS2 people have already made the jump to the Wii and may not spring for a second console even at a lower price point.
Basically I think Pachter's setting himself up to look foolish again.
I guess it really depends on what the figure was for multiple console ownership last gen, and then calculating how many consoles would need to be sold to match that figure this gen. That sounds like it should be the total increase you'll see for the PS360 at the lower price point.
Even with your caveat that is ice cold man. Ice cold.
Pachter:
[WII] 750K
[NDS] 550K
[360] 250K
[PS3] 225K
[PSP] 200K
[PS2] 125K
SimExchange:
[WII] 744K
[NDS] 510K
[360] 216K
[PS3] 228K
[PSP] 211K
[PS2] N/A
If GTA doesn't do it, nothing will.
The dollar's down, workers in Singapore are cheap - sounds like the perfect time to outsource! I had forgotten about the Euphoria and DMM stuff, and now that you brought it up it makes perfect sense to develope it and sell it like Epic Games does with the Unreal Engine. Of course, if they fire their development teams it doesn't look like they'll be much in the market to update the engines, but that's a problem that doesn't mean much versus next year's bottom line.
Naw, he's too busy playing WoW to care.
NNID: Glenn565
I meant to throw "In Japan" in there.
Anyway. Where are these leaked numbers and what are these prizes? I see some numbers from Pachter up there, but he has the 360 outselling the PS3, which leads me to believe that those numbers are completely fabricated.
Not one whit. It's a good seller but not a stellar one, and console sales went down when the monster that is GTA4 came out.
Edit: D'oh, beat.
Why wouldn't it? It's a bit cheaper. Now next month MGS might put the PS3 over the top of the 360. Of course given 5 weeks of sales the Wii should put up a monster number again.
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
I meant in Japan!
I've only seen you recently posting here in this thread. You must have missed the Pachter hate.
Your consoles are too expensive to meet the sales targets you think they should be meeting.
Reduce their price and the sales will increase.
Sincerely,
Your key demographics.
Don't you own both a 360 and PS3?
For comparisons sake, I've sold about 30 Ninja Gaiden II. If LIJ gets enough stock out there, it seems pretty feasible that it might win in June.
This week? Woops. No wonder we got preliminary data so fast. Okay, I'll add these to the OP.
And a Wii too.
But while my Wii gets maybe less than 10% of my total game playing time, it was the easiest purchase decision because its so fucking cheap.
You cant ever impulse buy a PS3 or a 360. I got a 360 on European launch (still working today after 3 RROD near misses) and a PS3 last christmas. Both purchases were thought out for a while and the only real reason I have both is because I am the hardest of hardcore gamer.
I bought my Wii as a complete impulse buy while out shopping for something else.
I have no doubt if the 360 or the PS3 were say, 100 dollars cheaper they would have much improved sales, not just short term because of a price drop but sustained sales increases.
They are just too expensive to sell to a large proportion of the market. The market the Wii is raping face with.
Price has and will always be the first and most important barrier to entry. We have been saying that for the last 5 years.
Microsoft will have to design the Xbox 720 to be much cheaper, I expect something akin to the Wii, not in control perhaps but building on the same kind of hardware platform as the 360. Dont know what Sony can do with so many of their eggs in the PS3 basket for their 10 year plan.
Gaming is all just too expensive for the people these companies are trying to sell to. I know so many people who WANT to play games and own all of these consoles but cant afford it. And they arent poor. Its just a purchase they cant justify for circa $700
I am an unmarried 20-something male who earns enough to have a gaming hobby - basically the ideal demographic. I own a Wii and desire to buy another console, but cannot justify paying as much as they are asking for either console right now. A price drop, while perhaps not causing me to purchase immediately, would eventually (once I deemed that I have enough in my slush fund again - been travelling a lot lately) cause me to purchase one.
Also, this whole 'multiple SKUs' thing pisses me the hell off, and I'm considering the first tier which has all functionality, but perhaps not some of the features (ie, having a hard drive is functionality, having an obscenely huge hard drive is a feature) to be the "price." Get that into range and we'll talk.
$199
$199
They all know that's the price-point to be at but for some reason they're just letting Nintendo sit right there, plugging away at the mass market. The PS2 had 30 million sales before the price hit the magic level, the other 90 million came after it was $199. People can argue value for dollar, inflation, whatever they want but 200 bucks is the price the masses have settled on for buying video games systems.
That is going to take a lot of time. How many casual gamers won't have a Wii by then?
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
Blu-ray does add some value to the PS3---but it's improvements on picture quality aren't applicable to everyone's home theater systems, nor does the mantra "it looks x times better" seem to be inspirational to a lot of people. The 360 doesn't really have anything along those lines that adds to its' value in the same way, which has proven effective against the PS3, but not the Wii.
That said, a price drop would really, really get the 360 and PS3 selling. The market perception of these two seems to be "average console," so I think the $199 sweet spot still applies. I think the problem is both cost (both consoles have been losing money for varying reasons) and pride (Microsoft and Sony bet heavily on raw tech winning the war for them, and having to cut the price to the Wii's levels might be like admitting defeat).