Last gen Sony made a lot of money, but Nintendo was still profitable. In fact they made money every year. Meanwhile MS was losing money like a madman.
So you could say that while Sony had "won" that gen, Nintendo was still fine and Microsoft considered that money an investment.
This gen Nintendo is making a fuckton of money. Neither of the others is close to breaking even. So the same reasoning doesn't really apply. This gen Sony has pissed away both the money and mindshare they won last time around and Microsoft is tired enough of making "investments" that they didn't lower the 360s price before GTA hit.
So even though that Sony and MS's game divisions have larger companies to fall back on and are not doomed, per se, I don't think they are fine with the fact there is "plenty of money to go around" when all of that money is going to other companies.
It depends on the timeline you are looking at. Sony's game division has made profit before, so it's not a stretch to think that they will again someday. Overall, they've done quite well.
MS's game division overall is still deep in red. However, the E&D division (which includes games, WinMobile, Surface, and Zune) is making a profit and will have a profitable year for the first time ever with the expectation that it will continue to remain so. If that's truly the case, then in a few years perhaps even that division will be profitable overall.
Same goes for other companies depending on the timeline. It's very easy to be so Nintendo-focused and discount everyone else merely on their success.
I really would not be surprised if next gen we see 1 sku, and a slight incremental upgrade (unless some breakthrough is made in tech) with a slightly larger step by Nintendo. I also wouldn't be surprised to see all consoles release at $300. MAYBE $350, but I think each company has seen the downside of multiple skus (shortages of one and excesses of another) and what the mass market is willing to pay for a game console.
It will be interesting to see if technology will place the PS3 on par with what is $300 profitable next gen and if Sony will try to just extend the PS3 life, or if that will hurt them since the PS4 won't be a big upgrade but people will see the PS3 as "old" and will rather buy a "new" console, even if the performance is similar.
Perhaps even just redesigning the case and creating a single model and calling it the PS4 would be helpful.
I will say, this gen has been interesting, and next gen could be even more so.
Anyway, on PSP games... I have no idea if the Japanese surge will really turn things around in the long run. It may help, but software is still selling like poop in the U.S. and Europe, Japan is now the number three market and western developers have pretty much given up on the thing.
And while yes, the 360 is turning a profit finally, no company will pass up an opportunity to make more money. That's why I'd be shocked if its successor (and the PS4, for that matter) ease up on the bleeding-edge tech since it has cut into profits while failing to give them a real advantage. They likely won't be in Wii territory, but they'll probably be more cost-effective.
Sadly for PSP it started selling units after most developers seem to have given up on it.
I fully expect the next XBOX to have a good jump in tech. Microsoft knows that is what it needs to do to keep their current demographic for the XBOX, in both players and developers. They will try other things to expand their market, like their attempt to money hat JRPGs this gen.
Sony I'm not sure about as they have had a lot of change up top of the game division, and presumably won't have a new media format to push. I think they are the real wildcard of the next generation.
So whats his name quits and NG2 sold some 20,000 units first week in Japan. He really needs to go to a western developer anyway. His games, much like Suda's, just do not fit what people in Japan want.
Well, next gen will be interesting because of diminishing returns on power. It takes more and more system power to make a smaller and smaller boost in visuals, and the mass market on the whole doesn't really appreciate, say, more enemies or more realistic physics. I'm not saying visuals can't improve, it just won't be the shock to the system (for the mass market) that, say, the jump from Origami World of the PS to the more realistic-looking PS2 will be.
The Wii was able to get past a relatively small increase in visuals by offering something completely new with waggle. The next Playstation and Xbox will really need to offer something compelling beyond visuals or the market may yawn.
Edit: I was going to say that the problem with Ninja Gaiden 2 is that it's on the 360, but even its minuscule install base could have given the game better results, if even for one week.
Anyway, on PSP games... I have no idea if the Japanese surge will really turn things around in the long run. It may help, but software is still selling like poop in the U.S. and Europe, Japan is now the number three market and western developers have pretty much given up on the thing.
And while yes, the 360 is turning a profit finally, no company will pass up an opportunity to make more money. That's why I'd be shocked if its successor (and the PS4, for that matter) ease up on the bleeding-edge tech since it has cut into profits while failing to give them a real advantage. They likely won't be in Wii territory, but they'll probably be more cost-effective.
Sadly for PSP it started selling units after most developers seem to have given up on it.
I fully expect the next XBOX to have a good jump in tech. Microsoft knows that is what it needs to do to keep their current demographic for the XBOX, in both players and developers. They will try other things to expand their market, like their attempt to money hat JRPGs this gen.
Sony I'm not sure about as they have had a lot of change up top of the game division, and presumably won't have a new media format to push. I think they are the real wildcard of the next generation.
So whats his name quits and NG2 sold some 20,000 units first week in Japan. He really needs to go to a western developer anyway. His games, much like Suda's, just do not fit what people in Japan want.
I'm not so sure on the jump in tech for the xbox. Sure they know what the current buyers want, but what about everyone else? MS wants to dominate this market, and they are seeing what the mass market desires currently (Wii) and I think they are going to take that into consideration next gen. Perhaps we'll see a hybrid controller like the PS3 sixaxis, or something. But I don't think MS will try what PS3 did this generation and go all out on tech, and then not have anyone able to afford your console.
Like Cloudeagle said, I think people will need to see something new from them, or they may ask, "The Wii did motion/pointer controls last gen, why didn't they put that into this gen?" It would be cool if someone incorporated a system near what that Wii tech guy has been demonstrating with IR tracking to change what is on the screen (3D VR like), and not merely a pointer. Whether it's feasible or not, we shall see.
And while yes, the 360 is turning a profit finally, no company will pass up an opportunity to make more money. That's why I'd be shocked if its successor (and the PS4, for that matter) ease up on the bleeding-edge tech since it has cut into profits while failing to give them a real advantage. They likely won't be in Wii territory, but they'll probably be more cost-effective.
Two things:
First the 360 is still in the red since it hasn't made good the losses of the first few years. Having a profitable year is progress at least, though.
Second, the decision to go bleeding edge is going to have ramification for the next gen too. The problem for MS and Sony is that if they want to release new consoles they will have to be somehow "better" than their current offering, Otherwise why would gamers or developers jump on board?
There will no way to release a new console for say $300 that is a step above the PS3 and 360 until the 360 and PS3 drop significantly below that. Thus, MS and Sony are stuck in this gen for a good while if they don't chose to try the bleeding edge/$600 path again.
In my opinion if Nintendo makes a HD system before MS and Sony put out their next consoles, Sony and MS will concede all but the hardcore gamers again. If the developers are behind the new Nintendo console from the get go then it could be even worse for them.
To elaborate going into this gen here are how I see the major advantages going into this gen
360: One year head start. Good number of exclusives. Lack of faith in Nintendo by 3rd parties.
PS3: Massive mindshare of Playstation brand. Blu-Ray. Lack of faith in Nintendo by 3rd parties.
Nintendo: Lower price. WiiSports. Good stable of first party franchises.
If Nintendo launches the next gen first, there won't be many advantages left for the other consoles. In fact if they can't launch before Nintendo they should consider if it is worth staying in the business at all. It would make more sense for their to be one "hardcore" console than to have two splitting that market between them.
Of course Sony, MS, or some other company could come up with something out of left field and upset all of this. But barring that, I think the situation for MS or Sony going into the next gen is more dire than most seem to realize.
lowlylowlycook on
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
Well, next gen will be interesting because of diminishing returns on power. It takes more and more system power to make a smaller and smaller boost in visuals, and the mass market on the whole doesn't really appreciate, say, more enemies or more realistic physics. I'm not saying visuals can't improve, it just won't be the shock to the system (for the mass market) that, say, the jump from Origami World of the PS to the more realistic-looking PS2 will be.
The Wii was able to get past a relatively small increase in visuals by offering something completely new with waggle. The next Playstation and Xbox will really need to offer something compelling beyond visuals or the market may yawn.
Edit: I was going to say that the problem with Ninja Gaiden 2 is that it's on the 360, but even its minuscule install base could have given the game better results, if even for one week.
Part of it depends on when the next generation starts. None of the big three seem like they are in a hurry to get there and there doesn't seem to be any other challengers on their way. Graphics can always get better.
Yeah, there really isn't a way to defend the first week sales for NG2.
Hell, you could make a decent argument that the mass market is already yawning a bit at teh pretty graffix. On the whole affordability and waggle are beating out HD and media capabilities. I'm intensely curious to see how Sony and Microsoft adjust their strategies, if at all.
And I wouldn't bet against the time between generations getting longer, as the post above mentions.
So whats his name quits and NG2 sold some 20,000 units first week in Japan. He really needs to go to a western developer anyway. His games, much like Suda's, just do not fit what people in Japan want.
Ninja Gaiden II entered at number 7 in the UK charts behind Wii Play, various versions of Indiana Jones, Mario and Sonic, and GTAIV. I'm not sure if the US sales will be much better.
I can't see Nintendo going first to get a head start on the other consoles. They're doing well enough that they can afford to sit back and watch, to see the direction the others might be going in before they launch.
In fact that seems to be Nintendo's strategy in all but the handheld market: hold off until you see what the other guys are doing, and then do something totally different.
I don't think they'll go early but I don't think MS and Sony have 10 years, either.
That would be a bit much, yeah. Seven maybe.
Unless Sony and Microsoft get twitchy in their lower sales (compared to the Wii) and try to build marketshare with a new console after 4-5 years, which also can't be ruled out.
And I wouldn't bet against the time between generations getting longer, as the post above mentions.
I think this is all but guaranteed, really. I think both companies realize that releasing new consoles quickly does nothing for profits, and delays games (which is where the money comes from). I think both systems needed a refresh, PS2 especially, but the newer systems look *really* good and are, arguably, set technology-wise for years and years. They have HDMI, wireless, hard drives, and firmware upgrades. Other than "more guts" they can't really improve much.
And I wouldn't bet against the time between generations getting longer, as the post above mentions.
I think this is all but guaranteed, really. I think both companies realize that releasing new consoles quickly does nothing for profits, and delays games (which is where the money comes from). I think both systems needed a refresh, PS2 especially, but the newer systems look *really* good and are, arguably, set technology-wise for years and years. They have HDMI, wireless, hard drives, and firmware upgrades. Other than "more guts" they can't really improve much.
They're especially set if the Blu-ray equipped 360 comes to pass.
I don't think they'll go early but I don't think MS and Sony have 10 years, either.
That would be a bit much, yeah. Seven maybe.
Unless Sony and Microsoft get twitchy in their lower sales (compared to the Wii) and try to build marketshare with a new console after 4-5 years, which also can't be ruled out.
It really seems to me that all of them benefit from delaying the onset of the next gen overall, but then I guess that's always been true. Nintendo gets to continue rolling in piles of money, MS and Sony get extra time to reduce costs and cover losses with software sales and it gives much needed time for the tech necessary to produce a graphical bump over their current systems to decrease into the obviously desireable $300 launch range.
Really, for MS or Sony to launch early poses some serious problems. They'll have to provide some definitive improvement over the current consoles to warrant interest, but the can't get THOSE under $400 at the moment - launching an improvement in two years for $600 or more is going to land them right back where they started. Really, only Nintendo has the room to make an agressive move at the 4-5 year mark and why the hell WOULD they with the Scrooge McDuck level of cash they're raking in?
If not you're crazy. If Microsoft and Sony follow this business plan they will get slaughtered worse than they currently are in this gen.
Why do people think a company has to be first in units sold or they 'am doomed'? The industry is bringing in record profits... there's plenty to go around.
dead souls penny arcade thinks dead souls neogaf is a genius.
They're both me.
I had to laugh when the original poster predicted the whole massively expensive Super HD games and systems. Some people just aren't cut out for sales age, I guess.
Maybe it's just me, but I don't understand what's horribly wrong with frankthurk's post. I don't know if the industry is indeed bringing "record profits", but it's true that there's plenty to go around. Nintendo is making a killing. MS is making a profit with their games division for the first fiscal year ever. The big publishers (EA, Ubisoft, etc.) are still making money. The big exception is Sony, but I think the expectation is that next year they'll be back in black.
While there's nothing wrong with it taken by itself, he's using it as support for his super HD game idea. That's at least my problem with it. Because in that context it's mind numbingly stupid.
That's my problem with it as well. His claim that Sony and Microsoft would launch even more expensive systems next gen was laughable.
And while yes, the 360 is turning a profit finally, no company will pass up an opportunity to make more money. That's why I'd be shocked if its successor (and the PS4, for that matter) ease up on the bleeding-edge tech since it has cut into profits while failing to give them a real advantage. They likely won't be in Wii territory, but they'll probably be more cost-effective.
Two things:
First the 360 is still in the red since it hasn't made good the losses of the first few years. Having a profitable year is progress at least, though.
Not really important. That's all sunk costs. They paid their admission into the console market, now it's time to turn a profit.
Second, the decision to go bleeding edge is going to have ramification for the next gen too. The problem for MS and Sony is that if they want to release new consoles they will have to be somehow "better" than their current offering, Otherwise why would gamers or developers jump on board?
There will no way to release a new console for say $300 that is a step above the PS3 and 360 until the 360 and PS3 drop significantly below that. Thus, MS and Sony are stuck in this gen for a good while if they don't chose to try the bleeding edge/$600 path again.
In my opinion if Nintendo makes a HD system before MS and Sony put out their next consoles, Sony and MS will concede all but the hardcore gamers again. If the developers are behind the new Nintendo console from the get go then it could be even worse for them.
To elaborate going into this gen here are how I see the major advantages going into this gen
360: One year head start. Good number of exclusives. Lack of faith in Nintendo by 3rd parties.
PS3: Massive mindshare of Playstation brand. Blu-Ray. Lack of faith in Nintendo by 3rd parties.
Nintendo: Lower price. WiiSports. Good stable of first party franchises.
If Nintendo launches the next gen first, there won't be many advantages left for the other consoles. In fact if they can't launch before Nintendo they should consider if it is worth staying in the business at all. It would make more sense for their to be one "hardcore" console than to have two splitting that market between them.
Of course Sony, MS, or some other company could come up with something out of left field and upset all of this. But barring that, I think the situation for MS or Sony going into the next gen is more dire than most seem to realize.
Nintendo won't launch HD until they can get it down to Wii-price levels (ie - sub-$300). I don't think that'll be for awhile. And by then, MS and Sony will be able to do the same thing.
And that's even assuming Nintendo WANTS to jump of the Wii Money-wagon.
And while yes, the 360 is turning a profit finally, no company will pass up an opportunity to make more money. That's why I'd be shocked if its successor (and the PS4, for that matter) ease up on the bleeding-edge tech since it has cut into profits while failing to give them a real advantage. They likely won't be in Wii territory, but they'll probably be more cost-effective.
Two things:
First the 360 is still in the red since it hasn't made good the losses of the first few years. Having a profitable year is progress at least, though.
Not really important. That's all sunk costs. They paid their admission into the console market, now it's time to turn a profit.
Well those costs are sunk, true. But if they remain losses over the entire 360 cycle then that will give them something to think about for the next gen.
Second, the decision to go bleeding edge is going to have ramification for the next gen too. The problem for MS and Sony is that if they want to release new consoles they will have to be somehow "better" than their current offering, Otherwise why would gamers or developers jump on board?
There will no way to release a new console for say $300 that is a step above the PS3 and 360 until the 360 and PS3 drop significantly below that. Thus, MS and Sony are stuck in this gen for a good while if they don't chose to try the bleeding edge/$600 path again.
In my opinion if Nintendo makes a HD system before MS and Sony put out their next consoles, Sony and MS will concede all but the hardcore gamers again. If the developers are behind the new Nintendo console from the get go then it could be even worse for them.
To elaborate going into this gen here are how I see the major advantages going into this gen
360: One year head start. Good number of exclusives. Lack of faith in Nintendo by 3rd parties.
PS3: Massive mindshare of Playstation brand. Blu-Ray. Lack of faith in Nintendo by 3rd parties.
Nintendo: Lower price. WiiSports. Good stable of first party franchises.
If Nintendo launches the next gen first, there won't be many advantages left for the other consoles. In fact if they can't launch before Nintendo they should consider if it is worth staying in the business at all. It would make more sense for their to be one "hardcore" console than to have two splitting that market between them.
Of course Sony, MS, or some other company could come up with something out of left field and upset all of this. But barring that, I think the situation for MS or Sony going into the next gen is more dire than most seem to realize.
Nintendo won't launch HD until they can get it down to Wii-price levels (ie - sub-$300). I don't think that'll be for awhile. And by then, MS and Sony will be able to do the same thing.
And that's even assuming Nintendo WANTS to jump of the Wii Money-wagon.
You are missing the distinction that Nintendo just has to upgrade to PS3/360 level graphics or a bit better while MS or Sony will have to aim for a significant increase to justify a new console at all.
Still, I doubt they are in a rush to do it. But the fact remains that they will have the option of going next-gen before Sony or Microsoft can. I'm just saying that if they do MS and Sony are going to be in an awkward situation.
lowlylowlycook on
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
An indication of Wii Fit's supply constraints? The Nintendo Store in New York, where an awesome person was able to buy a Gold DS Zelda bundle for me months after it vanished everywhere else, can't keep it in stock.
It's not just the Wii console that Nintendo's having severe supply issues with -- Wii Fit is impossible to find, too.
I'm in New York City this week for Tuesday night's Webby awards ceremony, and figured for sure that I'd be able to get a Wii Fit or two for all the people who keep asking me for one. No such luck. Even though it's possible to walk into the Toys R Us in Times Square or the flagship Nintendo World Store in Rockefeller Center any time of day and buy a Wii console, even these super-stocked stores don't have Wii Fit.
"We don't know when we'll get more," said the beleaguered-looking man behind the counter at Toys R Us when I asked him, for what had to be the eleven hundredth time today, when they might get Wii Fit back in stock. "Try the Nintendo World Store."
We did. Nothing. They replenish their stock of Wii Fit every morning, though, said the equally-beleaguered Nintendo World Store employee. The store opens at 9 AM, he told me.
"Great," I said.
"But people start lining up at 7," he said.
Okay, Nintendo, seriously: I can understand not being able to keep the Wii console in stock, but this is a fucking bathroom scale.
An indication of Wii Fit's supply constraints? The Nintendo Store in New York, where an awesome person was able to buy a Gold DS Zelda bundle for me months after it vanished everywhere else, can't keep it in stock.
It's not just the Wii console that Nintendo's having severe supply issues with -- Wii Fit is impossible to find, too.
I'm in New York City this week for Tuesday night's Webby awards ceremony, and figured for sure that I'd be able to get a Wii Fit or two for all the people who keep asking me for one. No such luck. Even though it's possible to walk into the Toys R Us in Times Square or the flagship Nintendo World Store in Rockefeller Center any time of day and buy a Wii console, even these super-stocked stores don't have Wii Fit.
"We don't know when we'll get more," said the beleaguered-looking man behind the counter at Toys R Us when I asked him, for what had to be the eleven hundredth time today, when they might get Wii Fit back in stock. "Try the Nintendo World Store."
We did. Nothing. They replenish their stock of Wii Fit every morning, though, said the equally-beleaguered Nintendo World Store employee. The store opens at 9 AM, he told me.
"Great," I said.
"But people start lining up at 7," he said.
Okay, Nintendo, seriously: I can understand not being able to keep the Wii console in stock, but this is a fucking bathroom scale.
So, the question. Was Nintendo unable to get decent amounts of Wii Fit out there, or is demand just that fucking high?
Yeah its a bathroom scale that wirelessly connects to the wii, has to be able to take a beating from up to 330 pounds. Jesus people with their unrealistic demands.
Preacher on
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
Nintendo won't launch HD until they can get it down to Wii-price levels (ie - sub-$300). I don't think that'll be for awhile. And by then, MS and Sony will be able to do the same thing.
And that's even assuming Nintendo WANTS to jump of the Wii Money-wagon.
You are missing the distinction that Nintendo just has to upgrade to PS3/360 level graphics or a bit better while MS or Sony will have to aim for a significant increase to justify a new console at all.
Still, I doubt they are in a rush to do it. But the fact remains that they will have the option of going next-gen before Sony or Microsoft can. I'm just saying that if they do MS and Sony are going to be in an awkward situation.
This assumes that the only way the next generation of consoles will improve is through better graphics. But isn't that what the Wii has disproven? As readers of Sean Malstrom know, Nintendo's strategy with the DS and Wii has been disruption. If Nintendo (or heck, Sony or MS) tries it again, then the next console will try to be even more revolutionary in its controls and ease of use than the Wii. I can't imagine what such a thing would look like, but if there's anything this generation has proven, it's that HD is the least interesting thing about the next gen - we should be thinking about something that does to the Wii what the Wii did to the PS360.
Yeah its a bathroom scale that wirelessly connects to the wii, has to be able to take a beating from up to 330 pounds. Jesus people with their unrealistic demands.
...and measures your exact center of gravity and can calibrate that to actions on a screen.
Anyway, the situation is interesting. My girlfriend was able to get one on release day with no trouble, and I saw some in a couple of stores for a few days afterward. Then it vanished. Was it a quickly building word-of-mouth thing? Or did Nintendo crank out a huge number of them ahead of time and wasn't able to keep the pace? My girlfriend said the Target she bought it at had a palate loaded with dozens, so maybe the latter.
Yeah, not being able to keep up with demand for WiiFit is no surprise. The only way they could keep up with something with such front loaded demand would be to stockpile before launching.
Now running out of Mario Kart is pretty pointless. Those wheels can't cost more than a few dollars to make at most so why not have enough on hand to sell your $50 software?
lowlylowlycook on
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
And while yes, the 360 is turning a profit finally, no company will pass up an opportunity to make more money. That's why I'd be shocked if its successor (and the PS4, for that matter) ease up on the bleeding-edge tech since it has cut into profits while failing to give them a real advantage. They likely won't be in Wii territory, but they'll probably be more cost-effective.
Two things:
First the 360 is still in the red since it hasn't made good the losses of the first few years. Having a profitable year is progress at least, though.
Not really important. That's all sunk costs. They paid their admission into the console market, now it's time to turn a profit.
Well those costs are sunk, true. But if they remain losses over the entire 360 cycle then that will give them something to think about for the next gen.
Second, the decision to go bleeding edge is going to have ramification for the next gen too. The problem for MS and Sony is that if they want to release new consoles they will have to be somehow "better" than their current offering, Otherwise why would gamers or developers jump on board?
There will no way to release a new console for say $300 that is a step above the PS3 and 360 until the 360 and PS3 drop significantly below that. Thus, MS and Sony are stuck in this gen for a good while if they don't chose to try the bleeding edge/$600 path again.
In my opinion if Nintendo makes a HD system before MS and Sony put out their next consoles, Sony and MS will concede all but the hardcore gamers again. If the developers are behind the new Nintendo console from the get go then it could be even worse for them.
To elaborate going into this gen here are how I see the major advantages going into this gen
360: One year head start. Good number of exclusives. Lack of faith in Nintendo by 3rd parties.
PS3: Massive mindshare of Playstation brand. Blu-Ray. Lack of faith in Nintendo by 3rd parties.
Nintendo: Lower price. WiiSports. Good stable of first party franchises.
If Nintendo launches the next gen first, there won't be many advantages left for the other consoles. In fact if they can't launch before Nintendo they should consider if it is worth staying in the business at all. It would make more sense for their to be one "hardcore" console than to have two splitting that market between them.
Of course Sony, MS, or some other company could come up with something out of left field and upset all of this. But barring that, I think the situation for MS or Sony going into the next gen is more dire than most seem to realize.
Nintendo won't launch HD until they can get it down to Wii-price levels (ie - sub-$300). I don't think that'll be for awhile. And by then, MS and Sony will be able to do the same thing.
And that's even assuming Nintendo WANTS to jump of the Wii Money-wagon.
You are missing the distinction that Nintendo just has to upgrade to PS3/360 level graphics or a bit better while MS or Sony will have to aim for a significant increase to justify a new console at all.
Still, I doubt they are in a rush to do it. But the fact remains that they will have the option of going next-gen before Sony or Microsoft can. I'm just saying that if they do MS and Sony are going to be in an awkward situation.
They've already said that their next console will be a HD console, but it seems that people here are assuming Nintendo will just bring out a HD version of the Wii. My guess is that they've seen how successful being different can be, so over the next few years they'll be trying out all kinds of weird things we can only guess at, and they'll come out second or third with a HD console that features a refinement of the Wii remote technology, and something new to the table that makes it all seem fresh again.
And Sony and Microsoft will cry because they don't have the balls that Nintendo does to go completely left-field. I'm sure they'll both be trying to innovate, but Nintendo is king in this area. Microsoft and Sony are hardware-first companies - that's their mentality. Nintendo are a software company first - they really get games and gaming better than anyone else.
Rohan on
...and I thought of how all those people died, and what a good death that is. That nobody can blame you for it, because everyone else died along with you, and it is the fault of none, save those who did the killing.
And while yes, the 360 is turning a profit finally, no company will pass up an opportunity to make more money. That's why I'd be shocked if its successor (and the PS4, for that matter) ease up on the bleeding-edge tech since it has cut into profits while failing to give them a real advantage. They likely won't be in Wii territory, but they'll probably be more cost-effective.
Two things:
First the 360 is still in the red since it hasn't made good the losses of the first few years. Having a profitable year is progress at least, though.
Not really important. That's all sunk costs. They paid their admission into the console market, now it's time to turn a profit.
Well those costs are sunk, true. But if they remain losses over the entire 360 cycle then that will give them something to think about for the next gen.
MS is in this for the long haul. Anything else is just stupid. The 360 is turning a profit now, there's no reason for it to stop anytime in the near future. The XBox brand will be fine.
Second, the decision to go bleeding edge is going to have ramification for the next gen too. The problem for MS and Sony is that if they want to release new consoles they will have to be somehow "better" than their current offering, Otherwise why would gamers or developers jump on board?
There will no way to release a new console for say $300 that is a step above the PS3 and 360 until the 360 and PS3 drop significantly below that. Thus, MS and Sony are stuck in this gen for a good while if they don't chose to try the bleeding edge/$600 path again.
In my opinion if Nintendo makes a HD system before MS and Sony put out their next consoles, Sony and MS will concede all but the hardcore gamers again. If the developers are behind the new Nintendo console from the get go then it could be even worse for them.
To elaborate going into this gen here are how I see the major advantages going into this gen
360: One year head start. Good number of exclusives. Lack of faith in Nintendo by 3rd parties.
PS3: Massive mindshare of Playstation brand. Blu-Ray. Lack of faith in Nintendo by 3rd parties.
Nintendo: Lower price. WiiSports. Good stable of first party franchises.
If Nintendo launches the next gen first, there won't be many advantages left for the other consoles. In fact if they can't launch before Nintendo they should consider if it is worth staying in the business at all. It would make more sense for their to be one "hardcore" console than to have two splitting that market between them.
Of course Sony, MS, or some other company could come up with something out of left field and upset all of this. But barring that, I think the situation for MS or Sony going into the next gen is more dire than most seem to realize.
Nintendo won't launch HD until they can get it down to Wii-price levels (ie - sub-$300). I don't think that'll be for awhile. And by then, MS and Sony will be able to do the same thing.
And that's even assuming Nintendo WANTS to jump of the Wii Money-wagon.
You are missing the distinction that Nintendo just has to upgrade to PS3/360 level graphics or a bit better while MS or Sony will have to aim for a significant increase to justify a new console at all.
Still, I doubt they are in a rush to do it. But the fact remains that they will have the option of going next-gen before Sony or Microsoft can. I'm just saying that if they do MS and Sony are going to be in an awkward situation.
And if the PS3 suddenly turns into a Cylon and starts murdering people in their sleep, Sony will be in an even more awkward position. It's still not gonna happen.
If it's comparable to the 360/PS3, then it's competing with them (graphics wise). Except with a much much smaller game library. And it'll be competing for the "I Love Waggle" market, it's competing with the original Wii.
The only way Nintendo moves on is when the Wii stops selling likes it's made of hookers glued together with cocaine.
That's true. Nintendo redesigned controls from the ground-up to incorporate motion, and it worked like a charm (at least for the games that take advantage of it). Sony tried to shoehorn motion controls onto a traditional control scheme with the Threeaxis, and, well, you can see how well that went over.
So, the question. Was Nintendo unable to get decent amounts of Wii Fit out there, or is demand just that fucking high?
It's sold out everywhere around here, too, but of course, here Wii demand was so high that I didn't get the console until my parents found one and mailed it to me from the other side of the country (they owed me money anyway, so it was all good).
Yeah its a bathroom scale that wirelessly connects to the wii, has to be able to take a beating from up to 330 pounds. Jesus people with their unrealistic demands.
...and measures your exact center of gravity and can calibrate that to actions on a screen.
Anyway, the situation is interesting. My girlfriend was able to get one on release day with no trouble, and I saw some in a couple of stores for a few days afterward. Then it vanished. Was it a quickly building word-of-mouth thing? Or did Nintendo crank out a huge number of them ahead of time and wasn't able to keep the pace? My girlfriend said the Target she bought it at had a palate loaded with dozens, so maybe the latter.
Demand for sure. At fred meyers in a moderate urban area they had 2 palates for launch day. When I got there an hour after opening they were down to one palate, after I bought one 5 more people bought one by the time I left the store 5 minutes later.
Anecdotal I know, but based on no one having the things yet plenty being available and then gone moments later. I'm thinking it's word of mouth "ZOMG I GOT THIS WII FIT GAME AND I'M LOSING WEIGHT" and advertising.
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I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
I think the main problem Nintendo will have is how to convince the casual market to upgrade. I think the soccer moms and senior homes will probably ignore it, thinking "I already have one of those". The trick will be to get the point across to those people about how it is different.
Of course, I also think they're saving Wii Sports 2 for whenever that time comes.
Yeah, not being able to keep up with demand for WiiFit is no surprise. The only way they could keep up with something with such front loaded demand would be to stockpile before launching.
Now running out of Mario Kart is pretty pointless. Those wheels can't cost more than a few dollars to make at most so why not have enough on hand to sell your $50 software?
Mario Kart is a weird case. There were more than enough for the first few days after launch---we sold a decent amount but not so much that we thought it was going to be crazy.
But, besides the initial first day spike it just didn't stop selling. It was selling in the 7th day the same way it sold the third day, and that's when I knew it was going to be crazy. We got the standard "we'll get more of xx as soon as possible out to stores" from corporate, but that's no big deal because we get that with every big release.
But then, as sales continued at the same pace as before, we got another note from corporate, saying essentially "Uh, both us and Nintendo completely underestimated demand for Mario Kart Wii. Expect shortages for awhile." So I imagine they're trying to get more made because they're aware of the situation, but there was seemingly a gigantic miscalculation in terms of demand that they're now trying to fix.
And demand doesn't seem to be dying down---I had at least 12 people ask me about it on Saturday, and I sold 6 of the 12 copies I got today within a couple of hours, and I don't expect them to be in when I get there tomorrow.
And while yes, the 360 is turning a profit finally, no company will pass up an opportunity to make more money. That's why I'd be shocked if its successor (and the PS4, for that matter) ease up on the bleeding-edge tech since it has cut into profits while failing to give them a real advantage. They likely won't be in Wii territory, but they'll probably be more cost-effective.
Two things:
First the 360 is still in the red since it hasn't made good the losses of the first few years. Having a profitable year is progress at least, though.
Not really important. That's all sunk costs. They paid their admission into the console market, now it's time to turn a profit.
Well those costs are sunk, true. But if they remain losses over the entire 360 cycle then that will give them something to think about for the next gen.
MS is in this for the long haul. Anything else is just stupid. The 360 is turning a profit now, there's no reason for it to stop anytime in the near future. The XBox brand will be fine.
You both make a good point. One year of profitability does not mean success, especially with the years of red that preceeded it. Yet, you can't ignore the growth over the past few quarters. Lots of eyes will be on IEB (the games division of MS) to keep delivering for FY09 and beyond.
It's funny, I'm currently in a week-long training event, meeting with other managers all over MS. It never ceases to surprise me just how small the Games business is compared to the rest of the company. It seems like a lot of fellow managers think it's cute that I work in Games and that it's doing well this year. Meanwhile, their side of the business is just humongously large, like orders of magnitude of dollars that are being managed. Yowzers. (That said, I love being in the entertainment business and find it a lot easier to be passionate about games than, say, selling Office to various countries)
A "hmmmm" to Ninja Gaiden II - with the 360 as it is in Japan you can't expect much but a 25k opening week still looks disappointing. MHP2G and WiiFit continue their epic battle atop the charts and look out for the 2008 GOTY - Empty Space Training. Hell Yes.
So reading the abloabloablo on GAF about gamasutra reporting on patcher who mentioned vgvhartzzzz, it seems like there is a consensus that this month (may) is where the wii will finally pass the 360 in NA, what do you guys think?
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It depends on the timeline you are looking at. Sony's game division has made profit before, so it's not a stretch to think that they will again someday. Overall, they've done quite well.
MS's game division overall is still deep in red. However, the E&D division (which includes games, WinMobile, Surface, and Zune) is making a profit and will have a profitable year for the first time ever with the expectation that it will continue to remain so. If that's truly the case, then in a few years perhaps even that division will be profitable overall.
Same goes for other companies depending on the timeline. It's very easy to be so Nintendo-focused and discount everyone else merely on their success.
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It will be interesting to see if technology will place the PS3 on par with what is $300 profitable next gen and if Sony will try to just extend the PS3 life, or if that will hurt them since the PS4 won't be a big upgrade but people will see the PS3 as "old" and will rather buy a "new" console, even if the performance is similar.
Perhaps even just redesigning the case and creating a single model and calling it the PS4 would be helpful.
I will say, this gen has been interesting, and next gen could be even more so.
Sadly for PSP it started selling units after most developers seem to have given up on it.
I fully expect the next XBOX to have a good jump in tech. Microsoft knows that is what it needs to do to keep their current demographic for the XBOX, in both players and developers. They will try other things to expand their market, like their attempt to money hat JRPGs this gen.
Sony I'm not sure about as they have had a lot of change up top of the game division, and presumably won't have a new media format to push. I think they are the real wildcard of the next generation.
So whats his name quits and NG2 sold some 20,000 units first week in Japan. He really needs to go to a western developer anyway. His games, much like Suda's, just do not fit what people in Japan want.
The Wii was able to get past a relatively small increase in visuals by offering something completely new with waggle. The next Playstation and Xbox will really need to offer something compelling beyond visuals or the market may yawn.
Edit: I was going to say that the problem with Ninja Gaiden 2 is that it's on the 360, but even its minuscule install base could have given the game better results, if even for one week.
I'm not so sure on the jump in tech for the xbox. Sure they know what the current buyers want, but what about everyone else? MS wants to dominate this market, and they are seeing what the mass market desires currently (Wii) and I think they are going to take that into consideration next gen. Perhaps we'll see a hybrid controller like the PS3 sixaxis, or something. But I don't think MS will try what PS3 did this generation and go all out on tech, and then not have anyone able to afford your console.
Like Cloudeagle said, I think people will need to see something new from them, or they may ask, "The Wii did motion/pointer controls last gen, why didn't they put that into this gen?" It would be cool if someone incorporated a system near what that Wii tech guy has been demonstrating with IR tracking to change what is on the screen (3D VR like), and not merely a pointer. Whether it's feasible or not, we shall see.
Two things:
First the 360 is still in the red since it hasn't made good the losses of the first few years. Having a profitable year is progress at least, though.
Second, the decision to go bleeding edge is going to have ramification for the next gen too. The problem for MS and Sony is that if they want to release new consoles they will have to be somehow "better" than their current offering, Otherwise why would gamers or developers jump on board?
There will no way to release a new console for say $300 that is a step above the PS3 and 360 until the 360 and PS3 drop significantly below that. Thus, MS and Sony are stuck in this gen for a good while if they don't chose to try the bleeding edge/$600 path again.
In my opinion if Nintendo makes a HD system before MS and Sony put out their next consoles, Sony and MS will concede all but the hardcore gamers again. If the developers are behind the new Nintendo console from the get go then it could be even worse for them.
To elaborate going into this gen here are how I see the major advantages going into this gen
360: One year head start. Good number of exclusives. Lack of faith in Nintendo by 3rd parties.
PS3: Massive mindshare of Playstation brand. Blu-Ray. Lack of faith in Nintendo by 3rd parties.
Nintendo: Lower price. WiiSports. Good stable of first party franchises.
If Nintendo launches the next gen first, there won't be many advantages left for the other consoles. In fact if they can't launch before Nintendo they should consider if it is worth staying in the business at all. It would make more sense for their to be one "hardcore" console than to have two splitting that market between them.
Of course Sony, MS, or some other company could come up with something out of left field and upset all of this. But barring that, I think the situation for MS or Sony going into the next gen is more dire than most seem to realize.
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Part of it depends on when the next generation starts. None of the big three seem like they are in a hurry to get there and there doesn't seem to be any other challengers on their way. Graphics can always get better.
Yeah, there really isn't a way to defend the first week sales for NG2.
And I wouldn't bet against the time between generations getting longer, as the post above mentions.
In fact that seems to be Nintendo's strategy in all but the handheld market: hold off until you see what the other guys are doing, and then do something totally different.
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That would be a bit much, yeah. Seven maybe.
Unless Sony and Microsoft get twitchy in their lower sales (compared to the Wii) and try to build marketshare with a new console after 4-5 years, which also can't be ruled out.
I think this is all but guaranteed, really. I think both companies realize that releasing new consoles quickly does nothing for profits, and delays games (which is where the money comes from). I think both systems needed a refresh, PS2 especially, but the newer systems look *really* good and are, arguably, set technology-wise for years and years. They have HDMI, wireless, hard drives, and firmware upgrades. Other than "more guts" they can't really improve much.
They're especially set if the Blu-ray equipped 360 comes to pass.
Really, for MS or Sony to launch early poses some serious problems. They'll have to provide some definitive improvement over the current consoles to warrant interest, but the can't get THOSE under $400 at the moment - launching an improvement in two years for $600 or more is going to land them right back where they started. Really, only Nintendo has the room to make an agressive move at the 4-5 year mark and why the hell WOULD they with the Scrooge McDuck level of cash they're raking in?
That's my problem with it as well. His claim that Sony and Microsoft would launch even more expensive systems next gen was laughable.
Not really important. That's all sunk costs. They paid their admission into the console market, now it's time to turn a profit.
Nintendo won't launch HD until they can get it down to Wii-price levels (ie - sub-$300). I don't think that'll be for awhile. And by then, MS and Sony will be able to do the same thing.
And that's even assuming Nintendo WANTS to jump of the Wii Money-wagon.
You are missing the distinction that Nintendo just has to upgrade to PS3/360 level graphics or a bit better while MS or Sony will have to aim for a significant increase to justify a new console at all.
Still, I doubt they are in a rush to do it. But the fact remains that they will have the option of going next-gen before Sony or Microsoft can. I'm just saying that if they do MS and Sony are going to be in an awkward situation.
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
http://blog.wired.com/games/2008/06/wii-fit-supply.html
So, the question. Was Nintendo unable to get decent amounts of Wii Fit out there, or is demand just that fucking high?
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Yes.
Yeah its a bathroom scale that wirelessly connects to the wii, has to be able to take a beating from up to 330 pounds. Jesus people with their unrealistic demands.
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This assumes that the only way the next generation of consoles will improve is through better graphics. But isn't that what the Wii has disproven? As readers of Sean Malstrom know, Nintendo's strategy with the DS and Wii has been disruption. If Nintendo (or heck, Sony or MS) tries it again, then the next console will try to be even more revolutionary in its controls and ease of use than the Wii. I can't imagine what such a thing would look like, but if there's anything this generation has proven, it's that HD is the least interesting thing about the next gen - we should be thinking about something that does to the Wii what the Wii did to the PS360.
...and measures your exact center of gravity and can calibrate that to actions on a screen.
Anyway, the situation is interesting. My girlfriend was able to get one on release day with no trouble, and I saw some in a couple of stores for a few days afterward. Then it vanished. Was it a quickly building word-of-mouth thing? Or did Nintendo crank out a huge number of them ahead of time and wasn't able to keep the pace? My girlfriend said the Target she bought it at had a palate loaded with dozens, so maybe the latter.
Now running out of Mario Kart is pretty pointless. Those wheels can't cost more than a few dollars to make at most so why not have enough on hand to sell your $50 software?
(Please do not gift. My game bank is already full.)
They've already said that their next console will be a HD console, but it seems that people here are assuming Nintendo will just bring out a HD version of the Wii. My guess is that they've seen how successful being different can be, so over the next few years they'll be trying out all kinds of weird things we can only guess at, and they'll come out second or third with a HD console that features a refinement of the Wii remote technology, and something new to the table that makes it all seem fresh again.
And Sony and Microsoft will cry because they don't have the balls that Nintendo does to go completely left-field. I'm sure they'll both be trying to innovate, but Nintendo is king in this area. Microsoft and Sony are hardware-first companies - that's their mentality. Nintendo are a software company first - they really get games and gaming better than anyone else.
Nothing's forgotten, nothing is ever forgotten
MS is in this for the long haul. Anything else is just stupid. The 360 is turning a profit now, there's no reason for it to stop anytime in the near future. The XBox brand will be fine.
And if the PS3 suddenly turns into a Cylon and starts murdering people in their sleep, Sony will be in an even more awkward position. It's still not gonna happen.
If it's comparable to the 360/PS3, then it's competing with them (graphics wise). Except with a much much smaller game library. And it'll be competing for the "I Love Waggle" market, it's competing with the original Wii.
The only way Nintendo moves on is when the Wii stops selling likes it's made of hookers glued together with cocaine.
It's sold out everywhere around here, too, but of course, here Wii demand was so high that I didn't get the console until my parents found one and mailed it to me from the other side of the country (they owed me money anyway, so it was all good).
Demand for sure. At fred meyers in a moderate urban area they had 2 palates for launch day. When I got there an hour after opening they were down to one palate, after I bought one 5 more people bought one by the time I left the store 5 minutes later.
Anecdotal I know, but based on no one having the things yet plenty being available and then gone moments later. I'm thinking it's word of mouth "ZOMG I GOT THIS WII FIT GAME AND I'M LOSING WEIGHT" and advertising.
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Of course, I also think they're saving Wii Sports 2 for whenever that time comes.
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Mario Kart is a weird case. There were more than enough for the first few days after launch---we sold a decent amount but not so much that we thought it was going to be crazy.
But, besides the initial first day spike it just didn't stop selling. It was selling in the 7th day the same way it sold the third day, and that's when I knew it was going to be crazy. We got the standard "we'll get more of xx as soon as possible out to stores" from corporate, but that's no big deal because we get that with every big release.
But then, as sales continued at the same pace as before, we got another note from corporate, saying essentially "Uh, both us and Nintendo completely underestimated demand for Mario Kart Wii. Expect shortages for awhile." So I imagine they're trying to get more made because they're aware of the situation, but there was seemingly a gigantic miscalculation in terms of demand that they're now trying to fix.
And demand doesn't seem to be dying down---I had at least 12 people ask me about it on Saturday, and I sold 6 of the 12 copies I got today within a couple of hours, and I don't expect them to be in when I get there tomorrow.
You both make a good point. One year of profitability does not mean success, especially with the years of red that preceeded it. Yet, you can't ignore the growth over the past few quarters. Lots of eyes will be on IEB (the games division of MS) to keep delivering for FY09 and beyond.
It's funny, I'm currently in a week-long training event, meeting with other managers all over MS. It never ceases to surprise me just how small the Games business is compared to the rest of the company. It seems like a lot of fellow managers think it's cute that I work in Games and that it's doing well this year. Meanwhile, their side of the business is just humongously large, like orders of magnitude of dollars that are being managed. Yowzers. (That said, I love being in the entertainment business and find it a lot easier to be passionate about games than, say, selling Office to various countries)
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http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=310925
01./00. [PS3] Dragon Ball Z: Burst Limit (Bandai-Namco) - 92,000 / NEW
02./00. [WII] Mysterious Dungeon: Fuurai no Shiren 3 (Sega) - 59,000 / NEW
03./01. [PSP] Powerful Pro Baseball Portable 3 (Konami) - 43,000 / 159,000
04./03. [WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo) - 39,000 / 1,406,000
05./00. [NDS] DS Misa Yamamura Suspense: Kyoto Murder Files (Tecmo) - 38,000 / NEW
06./05. [PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2nd G (Capcom) - 35,000 / 2,177,000
07./04. [WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 34,000 / 2,190,000
08./00. [360] Ninja Gaiden 2 (Tecmo) - 25,000 / NEW
09./06. [WII] Family Trainer (Bandai-Namco) - 15,000 / 59,000
10./12. [NDS] DS Beautiful Letter Training (Nintendo) - 15,000 / 267,000
11./08. [PSP] Valhalla Knights 2 (Marvelous Entertainment)
12./00. [360] Dragon Ball Z: Burst Limit (Bandai-Namco)
13./17. [NDS] Taiko Drum Master DS: Seven Island Adventure (Bandai-Namco)
14./10. [NDS] Empty Space Training (Benesse)
15./02. [NDS] Endless Frontier: Super Robot Wars OG Saga (Bandai-Namco)
16./19. [WII] Wii Sports (Nintendo)
17./22. [NDS] We're Fossil Diggers (Nintendo)
18./26. [WII] Wii Play (Nintendo)
19./27. [NDS] Pokémon Ranger: Batonnage (Pokémon)
20./25. [WII] Link's Crossbow Training (Nintendo)
21./28. [NDS] Mario Kart DS (Nintendo)
22./14. [NDS] Riddle Training (Benesse)
23./00. [NDS] 99 Tears (Bandai-Namco)
24./13. [NDS] Front Mission 2089: Border of Madness (Square-Enix)
25./23. [WII] Battalion Wars 2 (Nintendo)
26./09. [PS2] Mana Khemia 2: The Fallen School and the Alchemists (Gust)
27./30. [WII] Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Nintendo)
28./29. [NDS] Tottado! Yowiko's Deserted Island Life (Bandai-Namco)
29./18. [PS3] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Vegas 2 (Ubi Soft)
30./40. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo)
NDS - 13
WII - 9
PSP - 3
PS3 - 2
360 - 2
PS2 - 1
A "hmmmm" to Ninja Gaiden II - with the 360 as it is in Japan you can't expect much but a 25k opening week still looks disappointing. MHP2G and WiiFit continue their epic battle atop the charts and look out for the 2008 GOTY - Empty Space Training. Hell Yes.
Now I've ruined it.