I feel dirty for having predicted the exact electoral map as Karl Rove.
I've got blue NC, but otherwise the same.
Darkchampion3d on
Our country is now taking so steady a course as to show by what road it will pass to destruction, to wit: by consolidation of power first, and then corruption, its necessary consequence --Thomas Jefferson
Rove has DC -3%? Really? DC, if you do that, I will HURT you.
Anyways, Obama's first 30 minute airtime buy post presidential win: Obama spends 30 minutes explaining taxes and profits, and tries to teach why people just fearmonger about taking your hard earned middle class income by confusing it all.
while saying ” i want to congratulate John McCain, he has run a rough campaign” and while saying it he wiped around his lips with his middle finger!!!!!!!
someone get the clip!!!!
ahahaha, drudge is now at hillaryis44 levels
ahahahahhahahahahaha
I onnly wish I knew a Palin/McCainite so I could watch their faces tomorrow night.
That map looks about right, maybe without florida or without ohio.
I was figuring Ohio or Florida would be lost, but Missouri might be picked up. Getting North Carolina would be insane, though it is possible. Gah, ~1% differences are driving me nuts. Especially since Obama's generally overperformed and I don't know what to make of it.
moniker on
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GoslingLooking Up Soccer In Mongolia Right Now, ProbablyWatertown, WIRegistered Userregular
Rove has DC -3%? Really? DC, if you do that, I will HURT you.
Anyways, Obama's first 30 minute airtime buy post presidential win: Obama spends 30 minutes explaining taxes and profits, and tries to teach why people just fearmonger about taking your hard earned middle class income by confusing it all.
Post presidential win, actually, he may not even need to buy it. He can just tell the media about it and they'll hand it to him for free. After all, he'd be President-Elect.
Gosling on
I have a new soccer blog The Minnow Tank. Reading it psychically kicks Sepp Blatter in the bean bag.
Rove has DC -3%? Really? DC, if you do that, I will HURT you.
Anyways, Obama's first 30 minute airtime buy post presidential win: Obama spends 30 minutes explaining taxes and profits, and tries to teach why people just fearmonger about taking your hard earned middle class income by confusing it all.
Be better off with an inspirational speech. The electorate is largely uninformed, and unwilling to become informed. Just make them feel like our way is better and they will go along, whether or not they understand.
Yes, I'm a jaded elitist with a low opinion of humanity as a whole
Darkchampion3d on
Our country is now taking so steady a course as to show by what road it will pass to destruction, to wit: by consolidation of power first, and then corruption, its necessary consequence --Thomas Jefferson
Man, that finger thing. Obama's just trying to make them directly mirror Clinton, isn't he? At this point it's mocking right?
Though after this campaign, I'd forgive him a victory speech that was all hopey and ended with 'and my opponent ran a good camp... no wait, he was a total fucking jackass, fuck him."
So I've seen the poll closing map, but when do results usually start rolling in? When should I start watching TV?
Some states are going to be called at 7 EST as soon as polls close (MA, VT, NY, etc). The others on the east coast will start finalizing around 7:30 with some holdouts going until about 8.
After that, we should see a half hour lag from the time the polls close until they call some of the states, while others are called immediately.
Basically, the first round of question marks should be in the books by 8:00, 8:30 at the latest.
I agree with Rove's map... although North Dakota, Montana, North Carolina and Missouri are all going to be close and will largely depend on turnout. Arizona looks in play as well, which would be awesome.
while saying †i want to congratulate John McCain, he has run a rough campaign†and while saying it he wiped around his lips with his middle finger!!!!!!!
someone get the clip!!!!
ahahaha, drudge is now at hillaryis44 levels
ahahahahhahahahahaha
I onnly wish I knew a Palin/McCainite so I could watch their faces tomorrow night.
A couple in my IT dept. are big fans. They've already come to terms that Obama's going to win... but they definetly don't like it.
So I've seen the poll closing map, but when do results usually start rolling in? When should I start watching TV?
Some states are going to be called at 7 EST as soon as polls close (MA, VT, NY, etc). The others on the east coast will start finalizing around 7:30 with some holdouts going until about 8.
After that, we should see a half hour lag from the time the polls close until they call some of the states, while others are called immediately.
Basically, the first round of question marks should be in the books by 8:00, 8:30 at the latest.
No East Coast polls close at 7. At 7 EST, Indiana and KY close, 8pm is the first real wave where a lot of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic will be called
edit
I stand corrected Vt, VA, GA, FL close at 7. Only one should be called right away tho
So I've seen the poll closing map, but when do results usually start rolling in? When should I start watching TV?
Some states are going to be called at 7 EST as soon as polls close (MA, VT, NY, etc). The others on the east coast will start finalizing around 7:30 with some holdouts going until about 8.
After that, we should see a half hour lag from the time the polls close until they call some of the states, while others are called immediately.
Basically, the first round of question marks should be in the books by 8:00, 8:30 at the latest.
Florida should be getting called right around December 8th.
SyphonBrue on
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HedgethornAssociate Professor of Historical Hobby HorsesIn the Lions' DenRegistered Userregular
Rove has DC -3%? Really? DC, if you do that, I will HURT you.
It looks like the -3 on his map is actually the number of electoral votes for DC. He doesn't seem to have put up an estimate for Obama's margin in DC (if he did, it would be in parentheses).
Edit: The really astonishing thing about Rove's map is that he has 40 electoral votes going to McCain by a point or less. That map could just as easily read 378-160.
So I've seen the poll closing map, but when do results usually start rolling in? When should I start watching TV?
Some states are going to be called at 7 EST as soon as polls close (MA, VT, NY, etc). The others on the east coast will start finalizing around 7:30 with some holdouts going until about 8.
After that, we should see a half hour lag from the time the polls close until they call some of the states, while others are called immediately.
Basically, the first round of question marks should be in the books by 8:00, 8:30 at the latest.
No East Coast polls close at 7. At 7 EST, Indiana and KY close, 8pm is the first real wave where a lot of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic will be called
edit
I stand corrected Vt closes at 7
That's odd, New York should be gayer than that.
We'll have to send out reinforcements.
MuddBudd on
There's no plan, there's no race to be run
The harder the rain, honey, the sweeter the sun.
I agree with Rove's map... although North Dakota, Montana, North Carolina and Missouri are all going to be close and will largely depend on turnout. Arizona looks in play as well, which would be awesome.
The best part about Arizona is that it's on the far Western end of states that people are actually paying attention to. Even if the election gets called for Obama early, we can still have some drama over whether or not McCain can hold AZ. And if he can't, I think they shoot him on national TV. I'd have to check, but I'm pretty sure that's AZ state law. Western Justice.
Rove has DC -3%? Really? DC, if you do that, I will HURT you.
It looks like the -3 on his map is actually the number of electoral votes for DC. He doesn't seem to have put up an estimate for Obama's margin in DC (if he did, it would be in parentheses).
Edit: The really astonishing thing about Rove's map is that he has 40 electoral votes going to McCain by a point or less. That map could just as easily read 378-160.
I bet it's closer to 100 than 50.
enlightenedbum on
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
So I've seen the poll closing map, but when do results usually start rolling in? When should I start watching TV?
Some states are going to be called at 7 EST as soon as polls close (MA, VT, NY, etc). The others on the east coast will start finalizing around 7:30 with some holdouts going until about 8.
After that, we should see a half hour lag from the time the polls close until they call some of the states, while others are called immediately.
Basically, the first round of question marks should be in the books by 8:00, 8:30 at the latest.
No East Coast polls close at 7. At 7 EST, Indiana and KY close, 8pm is the first real wave where a lot of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic will be called
So I've seen the poll closing map, but when do results usually start rolling in? When should I start watching TV?
Some states are going to be called at 7 EST as soon as polls close (MA, VT, NY, etc). The others on the east coast will start finalizing around 7:30 with some holdouts going until about 8.
After that, we should see a half hour lag from the time the polls close until they call some of the states, while others are called immediately.
Basically, the first round of question marks should be in the books by 8:00, 8:30 at the latest.
No East Coast polls close at 7. At 7 EST, Indiana and KY close, 8pm is the first real wave where a lot of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic will be called
edit
I stand corrected Vt closes at 7
That's odd, New York should be gayer than that.
We'll have to send out reinforcements.
Was eating donut as I read that.
There's donut on my keyboard now.
Thanks
The whole thing? What are you, a mother bird?
Armored Gorilla on
"I'm a mad god. The Mad God, actually. It's a family title. Gets passed down from me to myself every few thousand years."
This is honestly one of the reasons I like dems in recent elections:
Your primary responsibility is to ensure that every eligible voter is permitted to vote.... Despite your title, Obama Legal Observers should not challenge any voter except in the unlikely circumstance that specific permission to do so is granted by the Boiler Room.
Thank you. You aren't there to be a giant fucking douche to the process.
kildy on
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GoslingLooking Up Soccer In Mongolia Right Now, ProbablyWatertown, WIRegistered Userregular
edited November 2008
Also, +1 for Obama as I practically dragged my mom to the polls so she wouldn't have to do it tomorrow.
Gosling on
I have a new soccer blog The Minnow Tank. Reading it psychically kicks Sepp Blatter in the bean bag.
Giggles and Fits, dang you guys, my roomates have been wondering about my sanity lately and you causing me to laugh uncontrollably for 2 minutes doesn't help
I think this is about the time to rewind two years and see where all this started. I didn't participate in that thread, so I won't be able to mock myself, but here's some of the funnier/more prescient quotes:
Obama won't get the nomination. It just won't happen. If he did, his platform would basically be "I'm a new politician with new ideas", while his Republican opponent's platform would be "He's an unproven politician with unproven ideas."
And we all know what happened the last time we let a young, bright, fresh politician run for president and win. Someone shot Kennedy. Do you really want someone to shoot Kennedy again?
All the polls have shown that the two most widely-regarded candidates for the Democratic nomination are Obama and Clinton.
Which frankly I find somewhat amusing in light of the fact that neither have officially declared their candidacy yet.
I have to confess that I'm cynical that either a woman nor a black man would be able to win the Presidency against a white male Republican, though, even with everything that's happened.
I think, honestly, that the fact that the person was white or female would become the biggest aspect of their opponent's campaign.
Vote for me, or that woman/black guy will be president.
[quote=[Tycho?]]I think Obamas inexperience may be an advantage; since he has done less he can be burned on less. He will get the inexperiened critisism throughout, but a good speaker and a good debater can deflect such vague critisisms.
What are republicans views on Obama? From what I can tell they absolutely despise Hillary, but I havn't heard much opinion on Obama come from the right.
The Republicans have a unique threat in Obama. They're the party which has consistently been branded as reactionaries and closet racists tucked away in lily-white country clubs.
Debasing not only a democrat, but a black democrat, will be a particuarly delicate challenge. Expect alot of really awkward "misquotes" and statements "taken out of context" as the election grows nearer.
[quote=[Tycho?]]I think Obamas inexperience may be an advantage; since he has done less he can be burned on less. He will get the inexperiened critisism throughout, but a good speaker and a good debater can deflect such vague critisisms.
What are republicans views on Obama? From what I can tell they absolutely despise Hillary, but I havn't heard much opinion on Obama come from the right.
This is going to be of particular use in the Democrat primary, where pretty much every single member of Congress is on the record as having been in favor of the Iraq war at one point, and since Obama isn't part of that record he'll be able to say "well, you were wrong on Iraq when it counted, and I wasn't".
This said, I find it interesting how he's getting the "inexperienced" label. If he were going up against, I don't know, Gore or Kerry, it would make a big difference. But he's going up against John Edwards and Hillary Clinton, who by the election will have 6 and 8 years of Senate experience respectively, to Obama's 4. This is not significantly more impressive, and if you allow Obama's 8 years of state senate experience to count as real (for some reason we normally don't), he's got more elected experience than either of those two.
Lack of experience will stand out against John McCain, who frankly I still think is his most likely opponent in the actual election. On the other hand McCain seems to be going out of his way to position himself as the pro-war candidate, being basically the only person in America besides Joe Lieberman who is in favor of Bush's "surge". This is odd because if this election is, in fact, a race to position oneself as as little like Bush as possible, you'd think McCain would have been the most obvious "not Bush" candidate anyone could find, but he seems to be going out of his way to shed that image now.
Obama won't get elected. No way, no how. Comparisons with Iranian presidents and attacks on his experience notwithstanding, all it would really take is including his middle name on the ballot and, at the very least, you can kiss Red States goodbye.
At the end of the day, the winner of the Democratic primary is going to be a milquetoast white male. He will choose, as his running mate, another milquetoast white male. I think this will be done because a whole lot of the voters will perceive womanness and blackness to be significant liabilities in the general election.
If I am wrong, then I offer this auxillary prediction:
The black or female candidate (by which I mean Obama or Clinton) will lose the general handily. If it's Obama, he'll lose because he's too far left. If it's Clinton, she'll lose because half the nation wants her to die in a fire. Nevertheless, the entire left will scream that they lost because they were black/a woman, and will use it as further evidence of the sexism and racism that dominates American culture, by which they will mean Republican voters.
If he wins the nomination he'll become the president. I think Republicans realize this that's why most of them are tripping over themselves to say "we hope he gets nominated lol".
I don't think so. Too many bigoted assholes out there.
I'd love to see him win without a single Southern state, though.
It will really depend on whether or not he manages to mobilize the poor black and hispanic voters that normally stay home on election day. He really only needs to steal one or two southern states and do well in the mid-west. I think that Virginia, Tennessee, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, and Iowa would all definitely be in play for him.
Our best friend Karl Rove is predicting a landslide
O: 338 with Virginia, Ohio, Florida + Western States
Pretty much my very conservative map right there.
Karl Rove is in the tank for Obama?
The fact that I picked a much less landslidey EC map for Obama officially makes me a real Democrat, I guess. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and whatnot.
I'm concerned that <insert talking point of opposing side which you're actually representing while pretending to be a "concerned" member of the other side>
Giggles and Fits, dang you guys, my roomates have been wondering about my sanity lately and you causing me to laugh uncontrollably for 2 minutes doesn't help
Yeah, my office is kinda quiet right now, and the Director across the hall turned around and looked in my direction a few times there. Sudden muffled laughter littered with chortles and snorts... great day.
At the end of the day, the winner of the Democratic primary is going to be a milquetoast white male. He will choose, as his running mate, another milquetoast white male. I think this will be done because a whole lot of the voters will perceive womanness and blackness to be significant liabilities in the general election.
If I am wrong, then I offer this auxillary prediction:
The black or female candidate (by which I mean Obama or Clinton) will lose the general handily. If it's Obama, he'll lose because he's too far left. If it's Clinton, she'll lose because half the nation wants her to die in a fire. Nevertheless, the entire left will scream that they lost because they were black/a woman, and will use it as further evidence of the sexism and racism that dominates American culture, by which they will mean Republican voters.
Sorry, ElJeffe
Never have I been so happy to have been wildly, hilariously wrong.
ElJeffe on
I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
Oh shits we have 101 pages of thread and the bucket only holds 100! There'll be presidential politics posts everywhere!
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ElJeffe on
I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
Posts
Awesome.
I've got blue NC, but otherwise the same.
Anyways, Obama's first 30 minute airtime buy post presidential win: Obama spends 30 minutes explaining taxes and profits, and tries to teach why people just fearmonger about taking your hard earned middle class income by confusing it all.
I onnly wish I knew a Palin/McCainite so I could watch their faces tomorrow night.
I was figuring Ohio or Florida would be lost, but Missouri might be picked up. Getting North Carolina would be insane, though it is possible. Gah, ~1% differences are driving me nuts. Especially since Obama's generally overperformed and I don't know what to make of it.
Be better off with an inspirational speech. The electorate is largely uninformed, and unwilling to become informed. Just make them feel like our way is better and they will go along, whether or not they understand.
Yes, I'm a jaded elitist with a low opinion of humanity as a whole
Though after this campaign, I'd forgive him a victory speech that was all hopey and ended with 'and my opponent ran a good camp... no wait, he was a total fucking jackass, fuck him."
After that, we should see a half hour lag from the time the polls close until they call some of the states, while others are called immediately.
Basically, the first round of question marks should be in the books by 8:00, 8:30 at the latest.
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0usWSw6CR7I&eurl=http://www.jedreport.com/
A couple in my IT dept. are big fans. They've already come to terms that Obama's going to win... but they definetly don't like it.
No East Coast polls close at 7. At 7 EST, Indiana and KY close, 8pm is the first real wave where a lot of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic will be called
edit
I stand corrected Vt, VA, GA, FL close at 7. Only one should be called right away tho
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Florida should be getting called right around December 8th.
It looks like the -3 on his map is actually the number of electoral votes for DC. He doesn't seem to have put up an estimate for Obama's margin in DC (if he did, it would be in parentheses).
Edit: The really astonishing thing about Rove's map is that he has 40 electoral votes going to McCain by a point or less. That map could just as easily read 378-160.
That's odd, New York should be gayer than that.
We'll have to send out reinforcements.
The harder the rain, honey, the sweeter the sun.
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
I bet it's closer to 100 than 50.
Was eating donut as I read that.
There's donut on my keyboard now.
Thanks
The whole thing? What are you, a mother bird?
This is honestly one of the reasons I like dems in recent elections:
Thank you. You aren't there to be a giant fucking douche to the process.
Critical Failures - Havenhold Campaign • August St. Cloud (Human Ranger)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EAyiA5Rmf0
Arch,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_goGR39m2k
Ooh, that will be amusing.[/QUOTE]
This is going to be of particular use in the Democrat primary, where pretty much every single member of Congress is on the record as having been in favor of the Iraq war at one point, and since Obama isn't part of that record he'll be able to say "well, you were wrong on Iraq when it counted, and I wasn't".
This said, I find it interesting how he's getting the "inexperienced" label. If he were going up against, I don't know, Gore or Kerry, it would make a big difference. But he's going up against John Edwards and Hillary Clinton, who by the election will have 6 and 8 years of Senate experience respectively, to Obama's 4. This is not significantly more impressive, and if you allow Obama's 8 years of state senate experience to count as real (for some reason we normally don't), he's got more elected experience than either of those two.
Lack of experience will stand out against John McCain, who frankly I still think is his most likely opponent in the actual election. On the other hand McCain seems to be going out of his way to position himself as the pro-war candidate, being basically the only person in America besides Joe Lieberman who is in favor of Bush's "surge". This is odd because if this election is, in fact, a race to position oneself as as little like Bush as possible, you'd think McCain would have been the most obvious "not Bush" candidate anyone could find, but he seems to be going out of his way to shed that image now.
You know what happened the last time we got a president from Illinois right[/QUOTE]
Sorry, ElJeffe
Hoz and Zimmydoom win ^
Karl Rove is in the tank for Obama?
The fact that I picked a much less landslidey EC map for Obama officially makes me a real Democrat, I guess. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and whatnot.
What's concern trolling?
https://twitter.com/Hooraydiation
I'm concerned that <insert talking point of opposing side which you're actually representing while pretending to be a "concerned" member of the other side>
Never have I been so happy to have been wildly, hilariously wrong.
Lock!
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