computers will one day be cheap enough that their inherent advantages over paper for data handling will cause them to supplant paper for everything that does not require the induction of a sense of nostalgia.
You're missing any evidence that the price of paper will some how rise.
Because based on the sheer cost of componants, computers being cheaper just doesn't make any sense.
Maybe in a few generations, when trees are endangered, but not in our lifetimes.
Read what you quoted again, I didn't say paper would get more expensive than computers or computers would get cheaper than paper, I said computers will one day be cheap enough that their inherent advantages over paper for data handling will cause them to supplant paper for everything that does not require the induction of a sense of nostalgia. I will amend this to say that, aside from nostalgia, flyers advertising scantily clad women that someone embarassingly shoves into your hand as you walk by are still likely to be made out of paper.
You won't need to own 300 epaper computers that each display a page instead of a textbook: you'll only need one. If you don't think we'll one day be able to make a computer + display for 5$ (today's value) that's sufficiently powerful to handle text, then you probably haven't bought a happy meal at McDonalds lately (they like to toss in those shitty liquid crystal electronic games that used to seem so awesome... and expensive... as a kid.)
We've got a lot of room to go refining epaper / OLEDs and even LCD technology (and I'll take this time to point out LCD prices have dropped since their release and today are dropping faster than ever.) Processors and storage are already cheap enough for the task and will only continue to get faster and cheaper.
I am aware of just how far epaper will come in the future.
however, that actually falls MORE along the lines of my prediction of a device about the size of a kindle. You're not going to be reading the entire newspaper, or an entire textbook on a screen the size of your phone, there would be too little information per page.
As for the useful life of paper, it will never go away entirely, because there will always be slight disadvantes to computerized systems. Your stack of post-its in the kitchen is never going to run our of power, or crash while you're walking down the dairy aisle, or any other issue that might happen when you're dealing with a digital device.
I'm a big fan of replacing paper with technology, but the analysts who think that paper will disappear completely are either being sensationalist, or else just clinging on to some one else's sensationalism because they don't want to be remembered as being wrong. Paper is here to stay for a long time coming, just in a slightly less important role.
Evander, you're a good man most of the time, but this time you are on the wrong side of history.
You keep saying "cellphone" and I keep imagining you are referring to old style phones like the Razor and stuff. Understand in probably a decade or so most people probably will not be using these types of phones anymore. Look how many iPhone copycats are coming out. Companies are jumping on the new revolution in mobile technology. In the coming years, we will see smartphones do things that we never thought possible.
Obs, at what point will you realize that the ONLY thing that the iPhones did thqat was new was to bring multitouch (which was an existing technology anyway) to the mobile market?
I am not disagreeing with the idea or people carrying portable devices in the future. I am just saying that A) they will not be near identical to today's smartphones (or in the case fo the iPhone, featurephones) which are too small to be practically usable, and that they will not replace desktop computers.
Obs, at what point will you realize that the ONLY thing that the iPhones did thqat was new was to bring multitouch (which was an existing technology anyway) to the mobile market?
I am not disagreeing with the idea or people carrying portable devices in the future. I am just saying that A) they will not be near identical to today's smartphones (or in the case fo the iPhone, featurephones) which are too small to be practically usable, and that they will not replace desktop computers.
As far as I'm concerned history began with the iPhone.
I don't know why you keep talking size with me, I said that until we get folding displays we'll see companies try different sizes and interfaces depending on the application. I fully acknowledge that phones are the wrong size for a computer. The only thing a phone really has going for it is that you're already carrying it around / it is already a computer.
I do agree it'll never go away entirely. Nothing ever really does. But I do think that one day when someone thinks 'I am going to read something' they're not going to be imagining a stack of paper. I think a big drive for this will also be the costs avoided by publishers and content creators (I used to run the publishing side of the family business, and holy shit, you really do pay a lot for paper / printing / binding) much as cost savings is a large drive for any form of digital distribution.
As far as I'm concerned history began with the iPhone.
Why? Are you a distributed-computing iphone based digital sentience?
As far as I'm concerned history began with the iPhone.
Why? Are you a distributed-computing iphone based digital sentience?
Probably not, because the iphone can't multitask.
I might as well be.
And the iPhone multitasks just fine. It just won't let third party developers do it yet. Which is perfectly understandable.
Also, phones may be the wrong size for a computer, but they are certainly not the wrong size for a computer on the go. Computers are like tools, you have different ones for different situations. You have big desktops for when you're gonna do some heavy Photoshop work. You have a laptop for when you're going to take notes in class or write up a dissertation in a field, and then you have the smartphone for when you are walking to a bus stop or picking up groceries or on the golf field or even taking a shit.
As far as I'm concerned history began with the iPhone.
Why? Are you a distributed-computing iphone based digital sentience?
Probably not, because the iphone can't multitask.
I might as well be.
And the iPhone multitasks just fine. It just won't let third party developers do it yet. Which is perfectly understandable.
Also, phones may be the wrong size for a computer, but they are certainly not the wrong size for a computer on the go. Computers are like tools, you have different ones for different situations. You have big desktops for when you're gonna do some heavy Photoshop work. You have a laptop for when you're going to take notes in class or write up a dissertation in a field, and then you have the smartphone for when you are walking to a bus stop or picking up groceries or on the golf field or even taking a shit.
A couple inches is too small a screen to be practical.
Also, how do you feel about the predictions that Apple will all but collapse when Jobs dies?
I'm curious, what viewpoint do I hold exactly that makes you think I'm equivalent to the shit of a bat?
batshit means crazy
and the whole "history began with the iphone" and "if a company charges me more money, that just means it is a better product" are proof of that, IMO.
Not really.
The "History began with the iPhone" thing is just a metaphor to say that Apple has had such a strong marketing impact in people's minds that it sparked a complete shift in the cellphone industry. And the "if a company charges me more money, that just means it is a better product" line is not exactly far from the truth, as expensive things DO tend to be better on average.
As far as I'm concerned history began with the iPhone.
Why? Are you a distributed-computing iphone based digital sentience?
Probably not, because the iphone can't multitask.
I might as well be.
And the iPhone multitasks just fine. It just won't let third party developers do it yet. Which is perfectly understandable .
How exactly does the iphone multitask? I definitely don't see any of the built in stuff doing it, but most of my use is confined to safari + mail.
I think the problem is that you joined in the middle of a discussion I was having with Obs.
You and I probably have pretty similar views.
I think you're probably right . I dunno about Obs being crazy though. He could be sane and everyone else could be crazy. He kind of reminds me of Guy Kawasaki but taken to more of an extreme.
As far as I'm concerned history began with the iPhone.
Why? Are you a distributed-computing iphone based digital sentience?
Probably not, because the iphone can't multitask.
I might as well be.
And the iPhone multitasks just fine. It just won't let third party developers do it yet. Which is perfectly understandable .
How exactly does the iphone multitask? I definitely don't see any of the built in stuff doing it, but most of my use is confined to safari + mail.
Phone calls, SMS, alerts, alarms and timers, etc... all that stuff uses multi-tasking to some degree. There's a lot of stuff doing background processes, but only if it really needs to.
As far as I'm concerned history began with the iPhone.
Why? Are you a distributed-computing iphone based digital sentience?
Probably not, because the iphone can't multitask.
I might as well be.
And the iPhone multitasks just fine. It just won't let third party developers do it yet. Which is perfectly understandable .
How exactly does the iphone multitask? I definitely don't see any of the built in stuff doing it, but most of my use is confined to safari + mail.
Phone calls, SMS, alerts, alarms and timers, etc... all that stuff uses multi-tasking to some degree. There's a lot of stuff doing background processes, but only if it really needs to.
The treo that I had before the iPhone was launched did all of that.
As far as I'm concerned history began with the iPhone.
Why? Are you a distributed-computing iphone based digital sentience?
Probably not, because the iphone can't multitask.
I might as well be.
And the iPhone multitasks just fine. It just won't let third party developers do it yet. Which is perfectly understandable .
How exactly does the iphone multitask? I definitely don't see any of the built in stuff doing it, but most of my use is confined to safari + mail.
Phone calls, SMS, alerts, alarms and timers, etc... all that stuff uses multi-tasking to some degree. There's a lot of stuff doing background processes, but only if it really needs to.
The treo that I had before the iPhone was launched did all of that.
You know, it's funny that everyone says "BAH NO CUT AND PASTE!" but I find myself wondering what the fuck would you ever even want Cut and Paste for? I don't exactly find myself thinking "fuck I wish I could copy and paste this" when I use my iPhone.
You know, it's funny that everyone says "BAH NO CUT AND PASTE!" but I find myself wondering what the fuck would you ever even want Cut and Paste for? I don't exactly find myself thinking "fuck I wish I could copy and paste this" when I use my iPhone.
when I use it as a phone, no.
When I'
m surfing the web, and I find something that I want to tell a friend, I can just select the text, and then paste it in to the message
or if I'm writing a document it is also useful.
I mean, when working with spreadsheets, it is basically a must.
In general, though, if you want to insist that iPhones are going to take over desktops, then they need to have AT LEAST all of the features of desktops, no?
Personally, I find the idea of multitouch on a phone to be a lot more questionable as far as usability, compared to cut and paste.
I do (find myself wanting to copy and paste things.) The built in stuff for recognizing numbers as phone numbers / auto-linking them to phone functions that involve numbers helps, but copy-paste would come in handy a million times for pasting URLs into PA posts or for copying data that you find on the net into a document.
I didn't know you couldn't copy/paste before getting my iphone, and quite honestly just assumed that the functionality would be there because really, it's Apple. The lack came as a surprise to ONE owner, that's for sure. I think we can all agree that if a device is intended to be capable of true portable computing, copy/paste is the sort of function that should be there.
So... back to the Pre, how are we thinking it will compete on the business front? Will this be the blackberry killer or at least competitor?
price and mail server compatibility will be big things there.
When you're talking about business use, other than top executives employees aren't generally getting their pck of any phone they like. They might be given a couple of options, but price and other factors play a role before a phone is even an option for a person to choose.
The fact that this is a brand new OS might mean that it takes a little bit of time before a company is willing to accept it, since they would (or at least should) want to test it for compatibility and security issues before letting it loose wide-scale through the company.
I'm with Evander. I don't see this getting corporate roll-outs anytime soon, but I can see businessmen who are independent of a mail server or perhaps the companies do not have the funding or IT for a BES server using it. As well as the many people who want the latest and greatest for keeping up with their e-mail and online stuff on the go.
I could even see this getting a lot of use with teens the the stupid parents who are willing to pay for a data plan for their kid. (The number of kids in schools I see with blackberries is getting ridiculous)
I am not disagreeing with the idea or people carrying portable devices in the future. I am just saying that A) they will not be near identical to today's smartphones (or in the case fo the iPhone, featurephones) which are too small to be practically usable, and that they will not replace desktop computers.
Future people would be laughing their socks off, if they look back at our "current" handheld devices. Then they would continue their conversation wirelessly with the help of their cybernetic implants.:P
it sparked a complete shift in the cellphone industry
Yeah, now most "feature/smart phones" come with a iphone look a like launcher app - which still drops you to the horrible "insert UI hell mobile OS here" default interface if you click shiny buttons.
I find it really odd they spent all this time to get the Pre to merge all your contacts from multiple sources seamlessly (superjesus willing) and with such a sweet calendar (demo'd by Bob Ross?) setup and then didn't get it working with MS Exchange. Must be some legal thing.
Posts
You're missing any evidence that the price of paper will some how rise.
Because based on the sheer cost of componants, computers being cheaper just doesn't make any sense.
Maybe in a few generations, when trees are endangered, but not in our lifetimes.
You won't need to own 300 epaper computers that each display a page instead of a textbook: you'll only need one. If you don't think we'll one day be able to make a computer + display for 5$ (today's value) that's sufficiently powerful to handle text, then you probably haven't bought a happy meal at McDonalds lately (they like to toss in those shitty liquid crystal electronic games that used to seem so awesome... and expensive... as a kid.)
We've got a lot of room to go refining epaper / OLEDs and even LCD technology (and I'll take this time to point out LCD prices have dropped since their release and today are dropping faster than ever.) Processors and storage are already cheap enough for the task and will only continue to get faster and cheaper.
however, that actually falls MORE along the lines of my prediction of a device about the size of a kindle. You're not going to be reading the entire newspaper, or an entire textbook on a screen the size of your phone, there would be too little information per page.
As for the useful life of paper, it will never go away entirely, because there will always be slight disadvantes to computerized systems. Your stack of post-its in the kitchen is never going to run our of power, or crash while you're walking down the dairy aisle, or any other issue that might happen when you're dealing with a digital device.
I'm a big fan of replacing paper with technology, but the analysts who think that paper will disappear completely are either being sensationalist, or else just clinging on to some one else's sensationalism because they don't want to be remembered as being wrong. Paper is here to stay for a long time coming, just in a slightly less important role.
You keep saying "cellphone" and I keep imagining you are referring to old style phones like the Razor and stuff. Understand in probably a decade or so most people probably will not be using these types of phones anymore. Look how many iPhone copycats are coming out. Companies are jumping on the new revolution in mobile technology. In the coming years, we will see smartphones do things that we never thought possible.
Obs, at what point will you realize that the ONLY thing that the iPhones did thqat was new was to bring multitouch (which was an existing technology anyway) to the mobile market?
I am not disagreeing with the idea or people carrying portable devices in the future. I am just saying that A) they will not be near identical to today's smartphones (or in the case fo the iPhone, featurephones) which are too small to be practically usable, and that
As far as I'm concerned history began with the iPhone.
I do agree it'll never go away entirely. Nothing ever really does. But I do think that one day when someone thinks 'I am going to read something' they're not going to be imagining a stack of paper. I think a big drive for this will also be the costs avoided by publishers and content creators (I used to run the publishing side of the family business, and holy shit, you really do pay a lot for paper / printing / binding) much as cost savings is a large drive for any form of digital distribution.
Why? Are you a distributed-computing iphone based digital sentience?
Probably not, because the iphone can't multitask
I think the problem is that you joined in the middle of a discussion I was having with Obs.
You and I probably have pretty similar views.
As you've seen yourself, Obs is batshit.
I might as well be.
And the iPhone multitasks just fine. It just won't let third party developers do it yet. Which is perfectly understandable.
Also, phones may be the wrong size for a computer, but they are certainly not the wrong size for a computer on the go. Computers are like tools, you have different ones for different situations. You have big desktops for when you're gonna do some heavy Photoshop work. You have a laptop for when you're going to take notes in class or write up a dissertation in a field, and then you have the smartphone for when you are walking to a bus stop or picking up groceries or on the golf field or even taking a shit.
I'm curious, what viewpoint do I hold exactly that makes you think I'm equivalent to the shit of a bat?
A couple inches is too small a screen to be practical.
Also, how do you feel about the predictions that Apple will all but collapse when Jobs dies?
:!:
batshit means crazy
and the whole "history began with the iphone" and "if a company charges me more money, that just means it is a better product" are proof of that, IMO.
Not really.
The "History began with the iPhone" thing is just a metaphor to say that Apple has had such a strong marketing impact in people's minds that it sparked a complete shift in the cellphone industry. And the "if a company charges me more money, that just means it is a better product" line is not exactly far from the truth, as expensive things DO tend to be better on average.
My posts are like literature man.
How many times did you fail microecon?
So you really want to have this debate?
How exactly does the iphone multitask? I definitely don't see any of the built in stuff doing it, but most of my use is confined to safari + mail.
I think you're probably right
Phone calls, SMS, alerts, alarms and timers, etc... all that stuff uses multi-tasking to some degree. There's a lot of stuff doing background processes, but only if it really needs to.
The treo that I had before the iPhone was launched did all of that.
And Treos have been around forever.
the what now
when I use it as a phone, no.
When I'
m surfing the web, and I find something that I want to tell a friend, I can just select the text, and then paste it in to the message
or if I'm writing a document it is also useful.
I mean, when working with spreadsheets, it is basically a must.
In general, though, if you want to insist that iPhones are going to take over desktops, then they need to have AT LEAST all of the features of desktops, no?
Personally, I find the idea of multitouch on a phone to be a lot more questionable as far as usability, compared to cut and paste.
But I wouldn't be surprised to see iPhones hook up with desktops and laptops more and provide auxillary functions, such as storage space, etc..
storage space?
that is crazy considering how expensive an iphone is compared to the portable HDDs already on the market, with MUCH higher capacity.
I didn't know you couldn't copy/paste before getting my iphone, and quite honestly just assumed that the functionality would be there because really, it's Apple. The lack came as a surprise to ONE owner, that's for sure. I think we can all agree that if a device is intended to be capable of true portable computing, copy/paste is the sort of function that should be there.
I concede.
I still think you're on the right track about portable ubiquitous computing devices
Add one letter to my name.
8-)
Obsy?
You want to be called Obsy?
You can't give yourself a nickname.
If you add one letter to my name, you get Lego, which is awesome.
edit: I always wanted to change my name to Erik Danger Fantastic. But it would probably be too awesome.
price and mail server compatibility will be big things there.
When you're talking about business use, other than top executives employees aren't generally getting their pck of any phone they like. They might be given a couple of options, but price and other factors play a role before a phone is even an option for a person to choose.
The fact that this is a brand new OS might mean that it takes a little bit of time before a company is willing to accept it, since they would (or at least should) want to test it for compatibility and security issues before letting it loose wide-scale through the company.
I could even see this getting a lot of use with teens the the stupid parents who are willing to pay for a data plan for their kid. (The number of kids in schools I see with blackberries is getting ridiculous)
Future people would be laughing their socks off, if they look back at our "current" handheld devices. Then they would continue their conversation wirelessly with the help of their cybernetic implants.:P
Yeah, now most "feature/smart phones" come with a iphone look a like launcher app - which still drops you to the horrible "insert UI hell mobile OS here" default interface if you click shiny buttons.