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Mexico: Possible failed state

werehippywerehippy Registered User regular
edited March 2009 in Debate and/or Discourse
This hasn't gotten much play here or in the media (mainstream or online for that matter), but Mexico really does increasingly seem to be in danger of collapsing. The drug cartels control huge swaths of the country, to the point where the only government or civil officials who can enter those areas is the military in force (some 45,000 soldiers have been called up to effectively be the police in northern Mexico).

Some links worth reading for background:
State department issues travel advisory for Mexico
Mexico on the brink of collapse - libertarian/conservative but the facts match others I've read
Texas planning for Mexican collapse - not as sensational as it sounds, but worth worrying about

The US really isn't equipped to deal with the effects of what by all rights seems like it could be called a civil war spilling into our territory, and it doesn't help that the government officials that are most immediately going to have to deal with any fallout (southern state governments, border patrol, DEA) are among the most reactionary and conservative in the US.

This does re-raise the point that one of the surest ways to knock down the intensity of the violence (though unlikely to completely snuff it out) is to decriminalize drugs, taking a lot of the impetus and financing for the cartels out in one fell swoop. The problem there is that this would be a herculean task in a favorable political climate, with a legitimate threat of violence on the border spilling onto US soil is seems just shy of political suicide to even broach the subject.

Thoughts?

werehippy on
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Posts

  • KageraKagera Imitating the worst people. Since 2004Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    I saw we try nation-building again.

    Who's with me?

    Kagera on
    My neck, my back, my FUPA and my crack.
  • ObsObs __BANNED USERS regular
    edited March 2009
    Mexico will not end well.

    Obs on
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  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Kagera wrote: »
    I saw we try nation-building again.

    Who's with me?

    Balderdash! I say it is time to go back to manifest destiny.

    Couscous on
  • KageraKagera Imitating the worst people. Since 2004Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Couscous wrote: »
    Kagera wrote: »
    I saw we try nation-building again.

    Who's with me?

    Balderdash! I say it is time to go back to manifest destiny.

    Who the hell would want to own Mexico?

    Kagera on
    My neck, my back, my FUPA and my crack.
  • DarkCrawlerDarkCrawler Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    I've often wondered this myself. Only recently I learned about the death toll that happens in the Drug War, and it's pretty shocking. Nearly 10,000 dead as of now. Almost a thousand by this year alone, and it has been only two months. The speed of the deaths rises constantly. To get a bearing on those numbers, it's listed as one of the major wars by this page on Wikipedia, which means that it's over 1000 deaths annually.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ongoing_conflicts

    And it's happening right next to the U.S. It's pretty scary.

    DarkCrawler on
  • ThanatosThanatos Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Kagera wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    Kagera wrote: »
    I saw we try nation-building again.

    Who's with me?
    Balderdash! I say it is time to go back to manifest destiny.
    Who the hell would want to own Mexico?
    If it becomes the 51st state, then our illegal immigration problems are over.

    Thanatos on
  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Kagera wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    Kagera wrote: »
    I saw we try nation-building again.

    Who's with me?

    Balderdash! I say it is time to go back to manifest destiny.

    Who the hell would want to own Mexico?
    We'll just have the Canadians we conquered deal with Mexico. North America will be as it should be, controlled by one country.

    Couscous on
  • Dunadan019Dunadan019 Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Thanatos wrote: »
    Kagera wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    Kagera wrote: »
    I saw we try nation-building again.

    Who's with me?
    Balderdash! I say it is time to go back to manifest destiny.
    Who the hell would want to own Mexico?
    If it becomes the 51st state, then our illegal immigration problems are over.

    nah, then we would have a problem with the rest of central america trying to imigrate to american-mexico.

    Dunadan019 on
  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Thanatos wrote: »
    Kagera wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    Kagera wrote: »
    I saw we try nation-building again.

    Who's with me?
    Balderdash! I say it is time to go back to manifest destiny.
    Who the hell would want to own Mexico?
    If it becomes the 51st state, then our illegal immigration problems are over.

    They are also partly values voters so the Republicans should welcome them.

    Couscous on
  • KageraKagera Imitating the worst people. Since 2004Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Couscous wrote: »
    Thanatos wrote: »
    Kagera wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    Kagera wrote: »
    I saw we try nation-building again.

    Who's with me?
    Balderdash! I say it is time to go back to manifest destiny.
    Who the hell would want to own Mexico?
    If it becomes the 51st state, then our illegal immigration problems are over.

    They are also partly values voters so the Republicans should welcome them.

    They wouldn't vote for white guys though so that kills that idea.

    Kagera on
    My neck, my back, my FUPA and my crack.
  • ThanatosThanatos Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Dunadan019 wrote: »
    Thanatos wrote: »
    Kagera wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    Kagera wrote: »
    I saw we try nation-building again.

    Who's with me?
    Balderdash! I say it is time to go back to manifest destiny.
    Who the hell would want to own Mexico?
    If it becomes the 51st state, then our illegal immigration problems are over.

    nah, then we would have a problem with the rest of central america trying to imigrate to american-mexico.
    Yeah, but a waaaaaayyyyy smaller border.

    Thanatos on
  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Thanatos wrote: »
    Dunadan019 wrote: »
    Thanatos wrote: »
    Kagera wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    Kagera wrote: »
    I saw we try nation-building again.

    Who's with me?
    Balderdash! I say it is time to go back to manifest destiny.
    Who the hell would want to own Mexico?
    If it becomes the 51st state, then our illegal immigration problems are over.

    nah, then we would have a problem with the rest of central america trying to imigrate to american-mexico.
    Yeah, but a waaaaaayyyyy smaller border.

    We can build Hadrian's Wall II: Electric Boogaloo.

    Couscous on
  • Dunadan019Dunadan019 Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Thanatos wrote: »
    Dunadan019 wrote: »
    Thanatos wrote: »
    Kagera wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    Kagera wrote: »
    I saw we try nation-building again.

    Who's with me?
    Balderdash! I say it is time to go back to manifest destiny.
    Who the hell would want to own Mexico?
    If it becomes the 51st state, then our illegal immigration problems are over.

    nah, then we would have a problem with the rest of central america trying to imigrate to american-mexico.
    Yeah, but a waaaaaayyyyy smaller border.

    so they won't be able to walk over.... theyll have to take boats.

    it would take 50 years to make mexico secure to other people who just want to come in.....

    Dunadan019 on
  • KyouguKyougu Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    It's funny, as in living in El Paso (border city next to Juarez) I'm so used to hearing about all the death and chaos that's happening just a few miles away that I take it for granted that a lot of people really don't know how insane the situation is over there.

    Just Juarez alone is a mess. The past two police chiefs have resigned due to threats by the cartel. The cartel had said they were going to kill police officers every day until the last chief resigned, and they actually went through their threat.

    I think last I read there were 6, 000 deaths in Juarez alone for this year, which is mindblowing when you realize that's it's only been a bit over two months.

    Kyougu on
  • Ethan SmithEthan Smith Origin name: Beart4to Arlington, VARegistered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Dunadan019 wrote: »
    Thanatos wrote: »
    Dunadan019 wrote: »
    Thanatos wrote: »
    Kagera wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    Kagera wrote: »
    I saw we try nation-building again.

    Who's with me?
    Balderdash! I say it is time to go back to manifest destiny.
    Who the hell would want to own Mexico?
    If it becomes the 51st state, then our illegal immigration problems are over.

    nah, then we would have a problem with the rest of central america trying to imigrate to american-mexico.
    Yeah, but a waaaaaayyyyy smaller border.

    so they won't be able to walk over.... theyll have to take boats.

    it would take 50 years to make mexico secure to other people who just want to come in.....

    What we do is we go down to Panama, and set that as the border.

    Let's see if illegal immigrants can SWIM ACROSS A RIVER!

    Ethan Smith on
    I would be ashamed to admit that I had risen from the ranks. When I rise it will be with the ranks, and not from the ranks..
  • KageraKagera Imitating the worst people. Since 2004Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    We could just use mines.

    Nothing like blowing up some desperate families to stop that shit from happening.

    Kagera on
    My neck, my back, my FUPA and my crack.
  • TL DRTL DR Not at all confident in his reflexive opinions of thingsRegistered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Kyougu wrote: »
    It's funny, as in living in El Paso (border city next to Juarez) I'm so used to hearing about all the death and chaos that's happening just a few miles away that I take it for granted that a lot of people really don't know how insane the situation is over there.

    Just Juarez alone is a mess. The past two police chiefs have resigned due to threats by the cartel. The cartel had said they were going to kill police officers every day until the last chief resigned, and they actually went through their threat.

    I think last I read there were 6, 000 deaths in Juarez alone for this year, which is mindblowing when you realize that's it's only been a bit over two months.

    It sure would be if that was the case.
    Mexico sending more emergency troops to Ciudad Juarez
    ...Many feel that the Calderon offensive has sparked a civil war and increased bloody shootouts between soldiers and the Mexican Drug Cartels and triggered out of control vicious fighting between drug lords and their gangs that has propelled the country's alarming fast-climbing death toll. More than 6,000 people were slain in 2008, and more than 1000 deaths so far this year.

    Ciudad Juarez, which had about 1,600 killings last year, has been on edge over the police chief's resignation and threats that appeared over the weekend against the mayor and his family.

    TL DR on
  • AegisAegis Not Quite TorontoRegistered User regular
    edited March 2009
    When I read the title my first thought was, "Again?"

    Something tells me their current troubles are still stemming from their first collapse in the 90s when they defaulted on their country debt obligations.

    Aegis on
    We'll see how long this blog lasts
    Currently DMing: None :(
    Characters
    [5e] Dural Melairkyn - AC 18 | HP 40 | Melee +5/1d8+3 | Spell +4/DC 12
  • Ethan SmithEthan Smith Origin name: Beart4to Arlington, VARegistered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Kagera wrote: »
    We could just use mines.

    Nothing like blowing up some desperate families to stop that shit from happening.

    Or we could build 2 forts, on opposite sides of the river, and have a ton of mercenaries, sentry guns, and snipers to defend it.

    Nothing will be able to cross that quagmire.

    Ethan Smith on
    I would be ashamed to admit that I had risen from the ranks. When I rise it will be with the ranks, and not from the ranks..
  • IncenjucarIncenjucar Audio Game Developer Seattle, WARegistered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Kagera wrote: »
    I saw we try nation-building again.

    Who's with me?

    Oddly enough, when we went at Iraq, one of the first things that crossed my mind was "If we're going to do that we should be doing that in Mexico where the problem is bigger, more immediate, and right fucking there where it's actually our problem today."

    Incenjucar on
  • ButtcleftButtcleft Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    werehippy wrote: »

    This does re-raise the point that one of the surest ways to knock down the intensity of the violence (though unlikely to completely snuff it out) is to decriminalize drugs, taking a lot of the impetus and financing for the cartels out in one fell swoop.

    Because when its decriminalized they are going to throw away their guns and start picking daisies for the elderly am I right?

    Decriminalization of drugs won't fix a damn thing, cartels are a business. If you make it legal then they'll just make bigger pushes, and have even more violent clashes over business and territory than they are already having.

    Buttcleft on
    that's it, I'm shutting this entire forum down, everyone thank buttcleft
  • IncenjucarIncenjucar Audio Game Developer Seattle, WARegistered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Buttcleft wrote: »
    Because when its decriminalized they are going to throw away their guns and start picking daisies for the elderly am I right?

    Decriminalization of drugs won't fix a damn thing, cartels are a business. If you make it legal then they'll just make bigger pushes, and have even more violent clashes over business and territory than they are already having.

    Yes this is exactly what happened when the Prohibition ended.

    My uncle died in the great Bud Lite vs. Schnapps gang war of 02.

    Incenjucar on
  • ButtcleftButtcleft Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Incenjucar wrote: »
    Buttcleft wrote: »
    Because when its decriminalized they are going to throw away their guns and start picking daisies for the elderly am I right?

    Decriminalization of drugs won't fix a damn thing, cartels are a business. If you make it legal then they'll just make bigger pushes, and have even more violent clashes over business and territory than they are already having.

    Yes this is exactly what happened when the Prohibition ended.

    My uncle died in the great Bud Lite vs. Schnapps gang war of 02.

    Because Budweiser and Schnapps were totally going around with Tommy guns shooting up cops and such.

    Buttcleft on
    that's it, I'm shutting this entire forum down, everyone thank buttcleft
  • JokermanJokerman Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Buttcleft wrote: »
    werehippy wrote: »

    This does re-raise the point that one of the surest ways to knock down the intensity of the violence (though unlikely to completely snuff it out) is to decriminalize drugs, taking a lot of the impetus and financing for the cartels out in one fell swoop.

    Because when its decriminalized they are going to throw away their guns and start picking daisies for the elderly am I right?

    Decriminalization of drugs won't fix a damn thing, cartels are a business. If you make it legal then they'll just make bigger pushes, and have even more violent clashes over business and territory than they are already having.

    Or you can take away there biggest profit maker and they'll either A) start moving towards being legit, which is a whole new world of Kneecaping and Moe Green specials or B) they'll become a weak shadow of thesmelves, much like the Mafia is now.

    Jokerman on
  • IncenjucarIncenjucar Audio Game Developer Seattle, WARegistered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Buttcleft wrote: »
    Because Budweiser and Schnapps were totally going around with Tommy guns shooting up cops and such.

    Wait you mean that legit business people replace criminal organizations when shit is legalized? Ho shits I did not know.

    Incenjucar on
  • TL DRTL DR Not at all confident in his reflexive opinions of thingsRegistered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Buttcleft wrote: »
    werehippy wrote: »

    This does re-raise the point that one of the surest ways to knock down the intensity of the violence (though unlikely to completely snuff it out) is to decriminalize drugs, taking a lot of the impetus and financing for the cartels out in one fell swoop.

    Because when its decriminalized they are going to throw away their guns and start picking daisies for the elderly am I right?

    Decriminalization of drugs won't fix a damn thing, cartels are a business. If you make it legal then they'll just make bigger pushes, and have even more violent clashes over business and territory than they are already having.

    Right, just like how ending alcohol prohibition didn't significantly impact American organized crime by effectively dismantling the infrastructure of their most profitable and deepest investment.

    Oh, wait.

    TL DR on
  • KageraKagera Imitating the worst people. Since 2004Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Buttcleft wrote: »
    Incenjucar wrote: »
    Buttcleft wrote: »
    Because when its decriminalized they are going to throw away their guns and start picking daisies for the elderly am I right?

    Decriminalization of drugs won't fix a damn thing, cartels are a business. If you make it legal then they'll just make bigger pushes, and have even more violent clashes over business and territory than they are already having.

    Yes this is exactly what happened when the Prohibition ended.

    My uncle died in the great Bud Lite vs. Schnapps gang war of 02.

    Because Budweiser and Schnapps were totally going around with Tommy guns shooting up cops and such.

    W...what in the hell?

    Have you ever even heard of rum runners? Or, you know, Chicago?

    They kinda disappeared around some significant point where something big was changed...maybe legalization of something...who knows.

    Kagera on
    My neck, my back, my FUPA and my crack.
  • ScalfinScalfin __BANNED USERS regular
    edited March 2009
    Kagera wrote: »
    We could just use mines.

    Nothing like blowing up some desperate families to stop that shit from happening.

    Or, if we didn't mind the international outcry, mimes.

    Scalfin on
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    The rest of you, I fucking hate you for the fact that I now have a blue dot on this god awful thread.
  • KageraKagera Imitating the worst people. Since 2004Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Scalfin wrote: »
    Kagera wrote: »
    We could just use mines.

    Nothing like blowing up some desperate families to stop that shit from happening.

    Or, if we didn't mind the international outcry, mimes.

    No need for cruelty.

    Kagera on
    My neck, my back, my FUPA and my crack.
  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Kagera wrote: »
    Scalfin wrote: »
    Kagera wrote: »
    We could just use mines.

    Nothing like blowing up some desperate families to stop that shit from happening.

    Or, if we didn't mind the international outcry, mimes.

    No need for cruelty.
    Yeah, no one deserves a mime attack

    Fencingsax on
    torchlight-sig-80.jpg
  • RecklessReckless Registered User
    edited March 2009
    Didn't NAFTA fix Mexico yet?

    [/IRsarcasm]

    Reckless on
    Arch wrote: »
    That much sex will make you stay with ANY kind of crazy bitch.
  • Casually HardcoreCasually Hardcore Once an Asshole. Trying to be better. Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    I come in expecting something of quality, but what I got is a bunch of kids making one liners and creaming in their pants as they fantasize about killing fleeing refugees.

    Mexico is a fucked up place. So fuck up that I refuse to go down there even if my family begs me to go. There's no interest in Mexico, cause frankly Mexico haves nothing of value.

    Casually Hardcore on
  • IncenjucarIncenjucar Audio Game Developer Seattle, WARegistered User regular
    edited March 2009
    I come in expecting something of quality, but what I got is a bunch of kids making one liners and creaming in their pants as they fantasize about killing fleeing refugees.

    Mexico is a fucked up place. So fuck up that I refuse to go down there even if my family begs me to go. There's no interest in Mexico, cause frankly Mexico haves nothing of value.

    It has human beings.

    Incenjucar on
  • KageraKagera Imitating the worst people. Since 2004Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Incenjucar wrote: »
    I come in expecting something of quality, but what I got is a bunch of kids making one liners and creaming in their pants as they fantasize about killing fleeing refugees.

    Mexico is a fucked up place. So fuck up that I refuse to go down there even if my family begs me to go. There's no interest in Mexico, cause frankly Mexico haves nothing of value.

    It has human beings.

    Also Mayan and Aztec ruins

    Kagera on
    My neck, my back, my FUPA and my crack.
  • Casually HardcoreCasually Hardcore Once an Asshole. Trying to be better. Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Incenjucar wrote: »
    I come in expecting something of quality, but what I got is a bunch of kids making one liners and creaming in their pants as they fantasize about killing fleeing refugees.

    Mexico is a fucked up place. So fuck up that I refuse to go down there even if my family begs me to go. There's no interest in Mexico, cause frankly Mexico haves nothing of value.

    It has human beings.

    Since when lives are consider valuable? According to the overpopulation thread the best thing that could happen is a worldwide plague that kills 90% of the population.

    Casually Hardcore on
  • KageraKagera Imitating the worst people. Since 2004Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Incenjucar wrote: »
    I come in expecting something of quality, but what I got is a bunch of kids making one liners and creaming in their pants as they fantasize about killing fleeing refugees.

    Mexico is a fucked up place. So fuck up that I refuse to go down there even if my family begs me to go. There's no interest in Mexico, cause frankly Mexico haves nothing of value.

    It has human beings.

    Since when lives are consider valuable? According to the overpopulation thread the best thing that could happen is a worldwide plague that kills 90% of the population.

    o_O

    Kagera on
    My neck, my back, my FUPA and my crack.
  • IncenjucarIncenjucar Audio Game Developer Seattle, WARegistered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Kagera wrote: »
    Incenjucar wrote: »
    I come in expecting something of quality, but what I got is a bunch of kids making one liners and creaming in their pants as they fantasize about killing fleeing refugees.

    Mexico is a fucked up place. So fuck up that I refuse to go down there even if my family begs me to go. There's no interest in Mexico, cause frankly Mexico haves nothing of value.

    It has human beings.

    Also Mayan and Aztec ruins

    Also vast numbers of resources of various kinds.

    But I was focusing on why we should actually give a shit.

    Incenjucar on
  • ScalfinScalfin __BANNED USERS regular
    edited March 2009
    Incenjucar wrote: »
    Kagera wrote: »
    Incenjucar wrote: »
    I come in expecting something of quality, but what I got is a bunch of kids making one liners and creaming in their pants as they fantasize about killing fleeing refugees.

    Mexico is a fucked up place. So fuck up that I refuse to go down there even if my family begs me to go. There's no interest in Mexico, cause frankly Mexico haves nothing of value.

    It has human beings.

    Also Mayan and Aztec ruins

    Also vast numbers of resources of various kinds.

    But I was focusing on why we should actually give a shit.

    And agave products.

    Scalfin on
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    The rest of you, I fucking hate you for the fact that I now have a blue dot on this god awful thread.
  • AegisAegis Not Quite TorontoRegistered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Well there's an easy and quick reason why anyone should give a shit: failed states spillover into nearby states. Mexico failing would lead to easily visible effects (of which it probably has been starting the last several years) in the US.

    Aegis on
    We'll see how long this blog lasts
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  • Casually HardcoreCasually Hardcore Once an Asshole. Trying to be better. Registered User regular
    edited March 2009
    Well we should give a shit because all that shit is going to move upstream.

    I mean it already is. I can barely walk 2 blocks without some 'M13' graffiti tag done by some dumbass kid.

    Casually Hardcore on
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