The first Tuesday in November in odd numbered years isn't quite as big as even numbered ones or those divisible by four. Last year we had
this
This year we have these races (along with the
Maine Gay Marriage Referendum (thread))
NJ-Gov
New Jersey always does this. A not-that-well-likely incumbent Democrat looks like they are in trouble and the GOP licks their lips. Then as it gets closer to election time the leading Republican falls back and the Dem usually ends up winning out.
Polls suggest that might be the case again this year with the added twist of an environmentalist spoiler. No Republican has won statewide office since 1997 and the last GOP Presidential candidate to do so was GHW Bushin 1988. All three candidates are pro gun control and moderate on immigration.
Gov Jon Corzine D - former Senator. He's had mixed reviews as Governor, but he's a Democrat. He holds most of the positions a standard Dem has - he's considered pro-education, pro-union, pro-progressive taxation, socially liberal with pro-choice and has incrementally moved from pro-civil unions to pro-gay marriage. Christie has attempted to link Corzine to the perennial corruption in New Jersey but has not found strong links as of yet.
Chris Christie - R - former US Attourney - A fairly standard to moderate Republican. Pro-life but not aggressively so. He wants tax credits and vouchers for private schools, would lower taxes (but not immediately) and supports the current civil unions but would veto a gay marriage bill. He's been hounded by unforced errors (if not outright corruption) in campaign financing and by claims he used his US Attourney's office for partisan purposes, such as when he publicly subpoenaed now-Senator Menendez's on the eve of the 2006 elections on a specious grounds. He is also fat and that has gotten coverage.
Chris Daggett - Independent/spoiler - former regional head of the EPA. Daggett is polling at 10-20% which could decide the race. He seems to mostly be running on environmental issues with the endorsement of the Sierra Club. He's socially liberal, pro-gay marriage, pro-choice etc, but seems to be taking votes from Christie more than Corzine, suggesting Christie's support may be more negative (anti-Corzine/established Democratic party) than positive.
VA-Gov
This was supposed to be a big one but now looks like it'll be a walk.
Robert McDonnell (R) has a lead of approximately 10-15% over Creighton Deeds. Deeds lost statewide to McDonnell in 2005 as well when Tim Kaine was elected but managed to beat out Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran in the primary.
Robert McDonnell R Attourney General of VA until he resigned to run. McDonnell holds most conservative Republican positions, and once wrote his JD
thesis(pdf) on conservative policies saying government policy should favor married couples over 'cohabitators, homosexuals or fornicators'," "man’s basic nature is inclined towards evil, and when the exercise of liberty takes the shape of pornography, drug abuse, or homosexuality, the government must restrain, punish, and deter", supporting "covenant marriage" and attacking the Griswold case family. McDonnell says he has backed off many of these positions but hasn't articulated systematically which ones.
Creigh Deeds D - a state Senator. Deeds has been uninspiring but did manage a surprise primary victory over the more liberal Moran and the most established McAuliffe. He's pro-choice, will admit to wanting to add a new gas tax and wants to expand the death penalty, even to juveniles. Anti-gay marriage but voted against a state constitution change to that effect. Deeds is now far behind in the polls
NY-23 (special election)
Moderate Republican Representative
John M. McHugh resigned to become Secretary of the Army in the Obama Administration. Although nominated in June, he did not resign until September, representing his district in the interim and allowing the special election to coincide with the general election.
The district is very rural for the Northeast, and occupies the most northern portion of New York state, sharing a border with Canada and Vermont. A Republican has held this seat since
1871 . However, while McHugh coasted to victory (never receiving below 63% since first running unopposed in 2002 and his predecessor receiving even greater support for 10+ years before that) the district only have a Cook PVI of R+1. This can be traced to close Presidential voting patterns: Barack Obama won the district 52-47, and Bush won twice 51-47 and 49-47.
The outlook this year is muddled because the candidates are odd. For one there are three major candidates:
Dierdre Scozzafava, State Assemblywoman -
R formerly Working Families nominee Independence Party - A former local and county official, she is now in the NY State lower house. She is far to the left of the national Republican party, especially on social issues. She supports gay marriage, is pro-card check and pro-choice but anti-public option and most of the new health care bill. She has been endorsed by the NRA, the NYS Teachers Union, Log Cabin Republicans and Newt Gingrich. The state Democratic party claims she has spoken to local party members about switching parties to D.
Bill Owens, attorney D Working Families - A fomer Air Force Captain and current lawyer and professor. He's pro civil unions, pro card check, pro choice and pro but a little tepid on the public option. However, he wasn't even a Democrat until he registered for this run and some believe he'll just be a Blue Dog (such as
Kos)
The third candidate is where this gets interesting
Doug Hoffman, accountant from Lake Placid(which is not in the district)
Conservative Doug Hoffman is the winger in this race, a Club For Growth candidate. While the Republican candidate has been endorsed by most Republicans, the more extreme ones have endorsed Hoffman, including Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Jim DeMint, Rick Perry and George Pataki (
among others). Hoffman wants flat taxes, is anti-gay marriage, pro-life and holds pretty much the positions you were expect from a right winger. Hoffman would caucus R.
Debate recapPolls have this one close and the dynamic of a three way race makes it somewhat difficult to project. Hoffman has surged clearly taking votes from Scozzafava, but to what extent is unclear. Two shitty/small sample size Republican polls held by groups that endorsed Hoffman (GFG and "Minuteman PAC") have him up. The most recent Kos/R2K poll had Owens up 1 on Hoffman (33-32-21). Independent polls from earlier in the month had Owens up ~5% on Scozzafava.
There are several other races including NYC-Mayor, Boston Mayor and a few not close Congressional special elections, along with the Maine referendum on gay marriage, which has its own thread. Any other races interesting people? What do the locals think about these races? Can they be really seen as referendums on Obama? Discuss and such
Posts
When the entire focus of your campaign is "LOOK WHAT THE OTHER GUY DID 20 YEARS AGO", it generally doesn't go well...
I guess except for the Bush/Kerry election.
Bush also had "vote for me or you're going to die!"
Thus Deeds' failure, I think.
That and he's boring as hell. And he already lost to this guy.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
McDonnell seems to have hit the sweet spot in Virginia- he's conservative enough to rack up big margins downstate, but he doesn't scare the latte-sippers in NoVa. GOP candidates don't need to win in the DC suburbs, they just need to keep themselves from being trounced. Their numbers in the rest of the Commonwealth are enough to take them over the top.
McDonnell may be a guy to watch long-term. Depending on how things go, I can see him taking a shot at a national office.
Rigorous Scholarship
And lose the female vote even more spectacularly than usual for Republicans!
I dunno... the guy wrote a thesis 20 years ago, and now has a daugher in Iraq... I'm not saying that's proof, but it indicates he's softened his position a little at least.
I'm not saying he's a pro-abortion social liberal now or anything, but I think his thesis mischaracterizes who he is now... just like Robert Byrd is no longer a member of the KKK.
NoVA the economy is the number one issue, well that and the pissing contest over who pays for Metro.
Want NoVA, talk telcom and IT business, and swear to raise minimal metro fees (thus face raping DC) and keep down parking fees.
Also, go highway 66
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/behind-the-numbers/2009/10/new_wapo_va_gov_poll_the_cross.html?sid=ST2009100802836
Rigorous Scholarship
Really, transportation in general more so than the economy as a whole.
Rigorous Scholarship
It's related now. VA wants the purple line out to Dulles, DC and Maryland don't give a damn. This line would also be used to lay down a fuck ton of fiber optic cables and a lot of companies are looking at it.
Question is who pays for it. You've got 3 local governments fighting over it, and the private sector. Plus defense/intel are huge here and they want in on it.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Not everyone is sure about that one, there are some who suspect that some of that moderate Republican vote won't go for the crazy person or will just stay home.
Currently DMing: None
Characters
[5e] Dural Melairkyn - AC 18 | HP 40 | Melee +5/1d8+3 | Spell +4/DC 12
Recent polls have it like 38 for Owens, 37 for Hoffman, and she's at 20. She has cratered over the last few weeks.
538 has some interesting cross-tabs on Scozzafava supporters:
Currently DMing: None
Characters
[5e] Dural Melairkyn - AC 18 | HP 40 | Melee +5/1d8+3 | Spell +4/DC 12
Oh I realize she cratered, I thought it was just to low 30s instead of all the way to 20. Yea, that would be bowing-out territory.
Currently DMing: None
Characters
[5e] Dural Melairkyn - AC 18 | HP 40 | Melee +5/1d8+3 | Spell +4/DC 12
Lesser of two evils, my friend, and Daggett doesn't stand a chance, so
also i'm getting paid to do it
NNID: Hakkekage
It's New Jersey, is there ever anything other than lesser of two evils?
Jägerbombs
Jägerbombs
Jägerbombs
NNID: Hakkekage
Come Overwatch with meeeee
I think education is kind of up there, but yeah, transportation is really the biggest issue. And even though I volunteered for Deeds some, I am so pissed at the way he ran the campaign as well.
I'm gonna be so pissed if she pulls this off. Woman donated to fucking Huckabee during the 2008 primaries.
You from the greater DC area as well? We could have a get together, though the majority of the metro residents here seem more conservative then most of the board.
Education, I don't think ranks. The schools in NoVA are great and it's really not much of an issue.
Deeds sucks, I can't bring myself to vote for him. There are things I like about McDonnel, even though I don't agree with some of the things he did in the past, but with a daughter in Iraq (which flat out contradicts that stupid thesis he wrote) I'm not overly worried.
The biggest local issues affecting me, currently boils down to what's going on with metro and dropping my taxes. This isn't a "taxes are bad, hurf durf" I'm just sick and tired of metro rates flying through the roof, the fucking cities falling apart, and money being spent on rather stupid things.
IMHO NoVA needs to stop kissing DC's ass and fuck them over royally and have DC finally foot the bill for some of this bullshit rather then DC draining money from us. :x
In terms of local politics, Obamas overly chummy relationship with the DC mayor and some of the havok they've unleashed in favor of DC and screwing the rest of us has left me convinced to vote counter party for local events just to end the insanity.
Also, I want more fiber lines.
The problem with education in NoVa is more funding than anything else, but they are in the process of fixing that. Most schools are either renovating or building new stuff. Qualitywise, they are some of the best in the country. And yeah, I'm in Arlington for the time being.
And the GOP proceeds to learn the exact wrong lesson. Which is good in some ways (I'll be glad to see the GOP in the wilderness for as long as possible), but rather bad in others.
occasionally there's a third, hilarious evil
but lesser is usually the scenario, yes
corzine is an embezzling sleaze but he doesn't make that part of his platform
I still don't think "Orthodox Jewish rabbinical organleggers" is going to get topped any time soon, though.
It does seem like he is a "not-Corzine" alternative that is more agreeable than voting conservative R
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Somewhere in Texas, a cave floor is missing its covering.
That said, I'll be working on Tuesday to defeat them in few local elections that will determine a variety of farmland preservation, environmental, and town-gown issues.
Funding is always needed. Feeding education is like feeding the DOD, you alway need more and if you don't pony up you get creamed.
That aside, NOVA is arguably the best in the nation when it comes to public education. So most people don't worry.
Metro on the other hand, is a cluster fuck.