Russian scientists will soon meet in secret to work on a plan for saving Earth from a possible catastrophic collision with a giant asteroid in 26 years, the head of Russia's space agency said on Wednesday.
"We will soon hold a closed meeting of our collegium, the science-technical council to look at what can be done" to prevent the asteroid Apophis from slamming into the planet in 2036, Anatoly Perminov told Voice of Russia radio.
"We are talking about people's lives," Perminov was quoted by news agencies as telling the radio station.
"Better to spend a few hundred million dollars to create a system for preventing a collision than to wait until it happens and hundreds of thousands of people are killed," he said.
The Apophis asteroid measures approximately 350 metres in diameter and RIA Novosti news agency said that if it were to hit Earth when it passes nearby in 2036 it would create a new desert the size of France.
Perminov said a serious plan to prevent such a catastrophe would probably be an international project involving Russian, European, US and Chinese space experts.
Interfax quoted him as saying that one option would be to build a new "space apparatus" designed solely for the purpose of diverting Apophis from a collision course with Earth safely.
"There won't be any nuclear explosions," Perminov said. "Everything will be done according to the laws of physics. We will examine all of this."
In a statement dated from October and posted on its website, the US space agency NASA said new calculations on the path of Apophis indicated "a significantly reduced likelihood of a hazardous encounter with Earth in 2036."
"Updated computational techniques and newly available data indicate the probability of an Earth encounter on April 13, 2036, for Apophis has dropped from one-in-45,000 to about four-in-a-million," NASA said.
RIA Novosti said the asteroid was expected to pass within 30,000km of Earth in 2029 - closer than some geo-stationary satellites - and could shift course to hit Earth seven years after that.
AFP
It sounds like, essentially, it's not a threat, but its nice to know someone is thinking about this sort of thing. Also because we'd get some cool space technology from the exercise to let us do other things, like crash it into Venus.
It's the kind of thing that's been talked about for a long time with very little practical technology. About the only thing anyone can agree upon is that nuking something ranges from little effect to no effect, and I believe most of the serious proposals tend to involve doing a very small action while it's at a distance - either by landing something on it, slamming something into it, or the cool gravity tether concept where you put a probe in front of it to drag it (which I suppose would have the benefit of being approximately independant of the rotation and orientation of the thing).
There were some interesting simulations I believe where they found that based on the construction of most asteroids, even a nuke drilled into the surface might be ineffective since a lot of asteroids are "rubble piles" where they're lots of small bits which can soak up the shockwave of a nuclear explosion quite effectively.
IIRC, it has been calculated to create about crater around the same size of the Tunguska event, and it has been known about for quite some time (it was featured in Carl Sagan's Cosmos around 30 years ago).
Anyway, the chance it's going to hit is minute, and even then it could potentially land in some uninhabited place in the middle of Russia.
Cherrn on
All creature will die and all the things will be broken. That's the law of samurai.
IIRC, it has been calculated to create about crater around the same size of the Tunguska event, and it has been known about for quite some time (it was featured in Carl Sagan's Cosmos around 30 years ago).
Anyway, the chance it's going to hit is minute, and even then it could potentially land in some uninhabited place in the middle of Russia.
No the tunguska event was ~3 megatons, apophis is closer to a thousand megatons.
Awesome astronomer explains why it briefly was a deal, could've been a major deal, but isn't anymore.
EDIT: I remember wrong, this is from nearer to it's discovery, this doesn't include the "too bad it's not going to happen" bit that came later. The thing has been downgraded.
It's still pretty scary how close it's going to get.
SanderJK on
Steam: SanderJK Origin: SanderJK
0
Options
ShadowfireVermont, in the middle of nowhereRegistered Userregular
The idea of blowing the thing up with a nuke is stupid. It'd be more worthwhile to strap a propulsion system onto it and guide it into the Sun.
I think it'd be easier to guide it a degree off course so it misses us. I can't imagine the amount of energy needed to completely shift the course into the sun. Sounds complicated. :P
The idea of blowing the thing up with a nuke is stupid. It'd be more worthwhile to strap a propulsion system onto it and guide it into the Sun.
I think it'd be easier to guide it a degree off course so it misses us. I can't imagine the amount of energy needed to completely shift the course into the sun. Sounds complicated. :P
I'd normally agree, but shifting it off course would have to be precise enough to make sure we're not just putting off the danger for some time in the future. It'd just vaporize in the sun.
I, for one, think this is all totally awesome. 1 in 250,000? That's pretty good odds, so I vote we get excited about this and build cool new rockets and divert an asteroid just so we know we can. As far as being a meaningful space-faring species is concerned, surely being able to do this is like, step 1.
From what I recall, the impact damage would effectively destroy an area the size of France (it wouldn't produce a crater that big, though). The equivalent in terms of nuclear blasts is around 880 megatons, and the total US arsenal is equal to 1400 megatons. In actuality, an ocean impact would be probably worse in terms of overall damage due to a very large tsunami along with the dust cloud that would linger for a good long while in the upper atmosphere.
Still, it's a fairly low chance of impact now. NASA is actually kinda interested in taking advantage of the fact that it's going to be so close to land a probe on it and hitch-hike around the solar system. But, if you really did want to deflect it further, either a mass driver (automated catapult or magnetic cannon with a shovel to feed it material) or ion engine would do the trick with a decade to spare.
We should build a rocket propulsion system all along one hemisphere of the Earth and push ourselves out of the way. As a plus we could push ourselves into an orbit that will produce an ideal climate for us.
We should build a rocket propulsion system all along one hemisphere of the Earth and push ourselves out of the way. As a plus we could push ourselves into an orbit that will produce an ideal climate for us.
We...we're already at that orbit. This is a singularly terrible idea. Yes, I know that you're joking.
I vote that, instead of blowing it up, we build a space colony on and inside the asteroid. The only thing missing would be a mutant terrorist organization and a master of magnetism.
I hope that it does, so we can all just have 26 years of partying. Fuck politics, it's all going to end anyway! Spend all of our money on booze and hookers!
We should build a rocket propulsion system all along one hemisphere of the Earth and push ourselves out of the way. As a plus we could push ourselves into an orbit that will produce an ideal climate for us.
We...we're already at that orbit. This is a singularly terrible idea.
But what about global warming? We could just nudge the Earth a bit over a prolonged period of time to cancel the effects of climate change out. Science totally works that way!
The idea of blowing the thing up with a nuke is stupid. It'd be more worthwhile to strap a propulsion system onto it and guide it into the Sun.
I'd love for us to be able to strap a propulsion system onto it and guide it to a Lagrangian point, stabilize it in place, and later use it as a colony or something to put people on. Probably not practical in the slightest, but it sounds cool.
The idea of blowing the thing up with a nuke is stupid. It'd be more worthwhile to strap a propulsion system onto it and guide it into the Sun.
I'd love for us to be able to strap a propulsion system onto it and guide it to a Lagrangian point, stabilize it in place, and later use it as a colony or something to put people on. Probably not practical in the slightest, but it sounds cool.
Maybe you could nudge it to enter a lunar orbit...
We should build a rocket propulsion system all along one hemisphere of the Earth and push ourselves out of the way. As a plus we could push ourselves into an orbit that will produce an ideal climate for us.
We...we're already at that orbit. This is a singularly terrible idea.
But what about global warming? We could just nudge the Earth a bit over a prolonged period of time to cancel the effects of climate change out. Science totally works that way!
Sadly, there are probably some people who think this is a better and more feasible idea than just reducing the carbon output of humanity.
Havelock: where would the asteroid go, though? Halfway between us and Mars?
We should build a rocket propulsion system all along one hemisphere of the Earth and push ourselves out of the way. As a plus we could push ourselves into an orbit that will produce an ideal climate for us.
We...we're already at that orbit. This is a singularly terrible idea.
But what about global warming? We could just nudge the Earth a bit over a prolonged period of time to cancel the effects of climate change out. Science totally works that way!
Alternatively, we could let it hit us and have the dust cloud solve the problem. The question is, where would the best spot for the crater be... nudge it into an orbit that impacts the center of the Sahara?
Ignoring amerocentrism, it depends where it hits. The middle of the ocean is the better scenario - you'll get some tsunami and a bit of dust in the atmosphere causing some cooling, and a few unlucky fishermen/container ships. If it hits on land you will have a fuckload of dust getting thrown into the upper atmosphere that will take a long time to come down and cause global cooling.
Looking at the wikipedia article for apophis though, it seems like it's to small to cause a considerable amount of dust to enter the atmosphere so it won't cause much global cooling, so really the effects would just be complete destruction of a fairly large area.
Ignoring amerocentrism, it depends where it hits. The middle of the ocean is the better scenario - you'll get some tsunami and a bit of dust in the atmosphere causing some cooling, and a few unlucky fishermen/container ships. If it hits on land you will have a fuckload of dust getting thrown into the upper atmosphere that will take a long time to come down and cause global cooling.
Looking at the wikipedia article for apophis though, it seems like it's to small to cause a considerable amount of dust to enter the atmosphere so it won't cause much global cooling, so really the effects would just be complete destruction of a fairly large area.
An asteroid can rip right through 7 miles (deepest) of ocean without much trouble if it's heavy enough. Hitting in the water won't help any since it'll still kick dust into the atmosphere.
MKR on
0
Options
LuvTheMonkeyHigh Sierra SerenadeRegistered Userregular
edited December 2009
Unfortunately the Russians are being dumb about this (at least Apophis specifically).
It's going to be sinking energy into the ocean as it goes deeper though, and the dust mainly comes from smashed up earth rock more than the asteroid itself. Another aspect of that is it causing huge forest fires, which is also averted by hitting the ocean.
Yeah apophis doesn't really pose much of a threat, but having a plan ready to go for something similar would make me a little happier.
The idea of blowing the thing up with a nuke is stupid. It'd be more worthwhile to strap a propulsion system onto it and guide it into the Sun.
I'd love for us to be able to strap a propulsion system onto it and guide it to a Lagrangian point, stabilize it in place, and later use it as a colony or something to put people on. Probably not practical in the slightest, but it sounds cool.
Time to finally get started on that space elevator!
Forar on
First they came for the Muslims, and we said NOT TODAY, MOTHERFUCKER!
Posts
Seriously, I guess it's a worthwhile effort because it'll provide a working framework for when an actual Armaggedon object shows up.
There were some interesting simulations I believe where they found that based on the construction of most asteroids, even a nuke drilled into the surface might be ineffective since a lot of asteroids are "rubble piles" where they're lots of small bits which can soak up the shockwave of a nuclear explosion quite effectively.
Anyway, the chance it's going to hit is minute, and even then it could potentially land in some uninhabited place in the middle of Russia.
No the tunguska event was ~3 megatons, apophis is closer to a thousand megatons.
it will fuck you up.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis
Impact-line:
Awesome astronomer explains why it briefly was a deal, could've been a major deal, but isn't anymore.
EDIT: I remember wrong, this is from nearer to it's discovery, this doesn't include the "too bad it's not going to happen" bit that came later. The thing has been downgraded.
It's still pretty scary how close it's going to get.
I think it'd be easier to guide it a degree off course so it misses us. I can't imagine the amount of energy needed to completely shift the course into the sun. Sounds complicated. :P
That's not very cool though. There's no fist-pumping "fuck YEAH!" moment. Just a "bloop" as it plops into the sun.
I'd normally agree, but shifting it off course would have to be precise enough to make sure we're not just putting off the danger for some time in the future. It'd just vaporize in the sun.
Still, it's a fairly low chance of impact now. NASA is actually kinda interested in taking advantage of the fact that it's going to be so close to land a probe on it and hitch-hike around the solar system. But, if you really did want to deflect it further, either a mass driver (automated catapult or magnetic cannon with a shovel to feed it material) or ion engine would do the trick with a decade to spare.
We...we're already at that orbit. This is a singularly terrible idea. Yes, I know that you're joking.
I vote that, instead of blowing it up, we build a space colony on and inside the asteroid. The only thing missing would be a mutant terrorist organization and a master of magnetism.
But what about global warming? We could just nudge the Earth a bit over a prolonged period of time to cancel the effects of climate change out. Science totally works that way!
I'd love for us to be able to strap a propulsion system onto it and guide it to a Lagrangian point, stabilize it in place, and later use it as a colony or something to put people on. Probably not practical in the slightest, but it sounds cool.
Maybe you could nudge it to enter a lunar orbit...
Sadly, there are probably some people who think this is a better and more feasible idea than just reducing the carbon output of humanity.
Havelock: where would the asteroid go, though? Halfway between us and Mars?
Alternatively, we could let it hit us and have the dust cloud solve the problem. The question is, where would the best spot for the crater be... nudge it into an orbit that impacts the center of the Sahara?
This is actually a good idea. We must keep our potential robot overlords happy, lest they turn on us.
Well economically yes if not environmentally.
The western seaboard would basically cease to exist.
Looking at the wikipedia article for apophis though, it seems like it's to small to cause a considerable amount of dust to enter the atmosphere so it won't cause much global cooling, so really the effects would just be complete destruction of a fairly large area.
kpop appreciation station i also like to tweet some
kpop appreciation station i also like to tweet some
An asteroid can rip right through 7 miles (deepest) of ocean without much trouble if it's heavy enough. Hitting in the water won't help any since it'll still kick dust into the atmosphere.
Torino scale ratings for known asteroids. Chances of Apophis hitting us between 2036 and 2103 are 1 in 135,000, putting it at a Torino rating of zero!
Now, if the Russians want to strap some rockets on it and park it orbit so we can mine the shit out of it, that'd be an awesome idea.
Yeah apophis doesn't really pose much of a threat, but having a plan ready to go for something similar would make me a little happier.
kpop appreciation station i also like to tweet some
Time to finally get started on that space elevator!