When: January 14, 2010. 10 AM EST
For the past 3 years, the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock has stood at 5 minutes to midnight. This Thursday, the hand will move again. The question now is, given what we know about the situation of the world, which way do you think the hand is going to go? (Keep in mind, while the clock used to be an exclusive measurement of impending Nuclear War, it now takes into account any number of global disasters or threats that may destroy the world.)
In 1991, the hand was at a peaceful time of 11:43pm, right in the middle of George Bush's presidency. But for the past 15 years we have been moving closer toward our destruction. If the hand were to go backward on January 14, it would be the first time it has done so in almost two decades.
If you had to bet a shitload of money, which would be the safe bet here?
There's two types of bets you can make:
1) Is the hand going to go forward or backward?
2) By how many minutes will the hand change? +/- (positive being a counterclockwise movement away from midnight, negative moving clockwise toward midnight)
Personally, I'm predicting it will go
Forward, -2.
What do you guys think? And why?
Posts
GM: Rusty Chains (DH Ongoing)
No, it is going to move. That much has been confirmed.
Partially. Very subtle.
Back one step then
Why the fuck would it go back?
Look at all the global warming and threats of nuclear holocaust in the east. And all the new terrorist threats
It's cold in fucking MIAMI!
the India/Pakistan nuclear dickwaving has me more than slightly worried.
When the temperature is dropping to 28 degrees in Miami you know the global climate is kind of fucked. People have been hospitalized for hypothermia and frostbite.
All of which were cited as the reasons it moved forward 2 minutes in 2007. My guess is back one minute too.
Please tell me you're not serious. Weather != Climate
I know YOU understand this person with a name I can't type, but just need to reiterate it
Also, I claim back one because while there are a lot of BIG problems facing the world today, most people are taking diplomatic solutions to solve these problems rather than military shows of force.
..............................
pm me, this isn't the place for this
Also, Global Warming is the wrong phrase. Climate Change is more accurate.
Any catastrophe that can destroy the world now gets registered by it.
Yes, it was a joke. I may be an idiot, but only kinda.
I thought it was something Alan Moore invented.
Is it supposed to be some kind of oracle or something?
Meh. Terrorism doesn't really have the ability to throw the entire world into war. One or two countries, here and there, yeah. But compared to, say, Japan attacking Pearl Harbor, 9/11 wasn't that bad.
As far as nuclear holocaust in the east, meh. It's nothing compared to the cold war-era standoffs. And with the very serious talks of nuclear disarmament going around, I'd say we're actually getting better in this regard. We understand the nature of MAD and what it means for us - in fact, I'd say nuclear weapons have resulted in less war and destruction, not more. And I think that trend will continue.
Global climate change is the only real threat. But in terms of environmentalism as a whole, we're getting much better from, say, 50 years ago. Carbon emissions are what we're most worried about now - and rightfully so - but a few decades ago it was sulfur-dioxide emotions that we were worried about (and rightfully so). And we did a great job of curbing that problem. Though there's much to be concerned about with global climate change, it's not close to the threat of global nuclear annihilation in the mid 1950's, or even the carried-out threats of world war in the first half of the 20th century.
Now, take into account the drastically dropping crime rates in the United States and Europe, the extreme advances in medical care and food availability over the last two decades, the longer average lifetimes almost universally across the globe, and the advances of science and human understanding in general - and I think it's pretty clear. Things aren't as bad in the 21st century as they were during the first half and middle of the 20th.
My prediction, the clock moves away from midnight by one minute, with a very stern warning that if we don't do something about our problems, that things are going to get worse.
This is exactly what I thought, but said much better than I could have. Which is why I said back one minute.
My guess would be the technology allowing the brain to interface with and control computer systems.
There's an actual DARPA program for this technology that's aimed at allowing covert soldiers to communicate with each other telepathically. I imagine it involves the invasive procedure where you have to install hardware into the brain itself. I also remember a few scientists explicitly saying, excitedly, "Imagine being able to talk to your friends with thought alone!"
It can be used and already is being used for medicinal purposes (helping with various mental disorders and being able to move artificial limbs with your thoughts), not to mention video games. I've certainly wondered how great it would be if I could just move the mouse pointer with my thoughts, and now wouldn't be surprised to see that become a reality once the technology is further refined and becomes more affordable. The article I read even touched off on things like eye implants.
Scientists are excited because they don't know the limits to what this technology can do. There are so many applications for it. It can certainly be abused, too. Some scientists were worried that it might be exploited by the rich. The implant technology, for instance, might be too expensive. Your regular person will be too poor to afford it, and the rich will become an entirely new class. We'll all be baseline humans, while the rich will have modified themselves.
This kind of stuff is still a bit off yet, so I doubt it would move the clock forward. But in the future? Who knows?
It is the oracle for our times.
If prop 8 gets shot down, and the gays can marry?
forward two minutes
I think you mean
IMMEDIATE APOCALYPSE
No snooze button here, thanks a lot fags.
Who is watching it?
3DS FC: 5343-7720-0490
As long as you have a good reason go ahead? No one is really yelling yet.
So far I think I'm the only one who actually thinks this shit is going to go forward.
You are not a minority opinion.
edit: But who knows, this thread itself is probably 2 minutes away from midnight.
Seriously, I think a step backwards of 1 minute sounds right. My reasons:
1. A president in the US who seems to be legitimately interested in diplomacy.
2. An increasing worldwide realization of the truth of climate change and many countries taking meaningful steps to moderate the problem.
3. The primary source of fear right now, Muslim extremism, is not at the same threat level as WW3.
On the other hand, I agree that the Pakistan/India situation is deeply scary.
IOS Game Center ID: Isotope-X
I think Back 1 or 2 minutes mainly because things take time to change.
Reasons why it'll move back:
- Society is becoming more open-minded. Sure, you can harp on about how there are still KKKs and gay bashers and what not but compare present day to 100 years ago and there are many things which have improved and nothing new has cropped up. Racism and gay bashing existed 100 years ago too, we just cared less.
- Despite environmental problems governments and their citizens are admitting that something needs to be done and are taking a pro-active approach. Stepping towards improvement instead of ignoring it would get a plus in my book.
- The threat of war in foreign countries has not reduced but I really don't think it's gone up either. Yes, there are nuclear weapons but they're so wide spread that everyone is afraid to use them else be condemned indefinitely (and fired upon themselves). I'd be surprised if we ever saw one of those actually used in another war. They are merely bargaining chips which have more value in threat then in use.
There are many good reasons to think that things are getting better, but anything called the "Doomsday Clock" is probably run by professional nervous wrecks, so they'll keep moving it forward until they have a damn good reason not to.
Why? START I ended on 5 December 2009, but both Russia and the US decided to enforce the treaty indefinitely until a successor is chosen, which is a huge sign that neither Russia nor the US wish to actively engage in nuclear rearmament. They are currently working on a successor to the START treaty and many expect they'll have something by summer of this year. Despite Global Warming and other such threats being lumped in on the Doomsday Clock, it's still primarily about nuclear war; it is run by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. And since it's inception, we've probably never been further from the threat of nuclear war. I say it's probably about time we move it to a time earlier than it's original 11:53 time.
They may move it back to say 'hay guys, we're actually making progress' too though.
I could see this thing being used heavily to sway favour and emotional tension.
here is my prediction:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cE4FHolkO94