As was foretold, we've added advertisements to the forums! If you have questions, or if you encounter any bugs, please visit this thread: https://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/240191/forum-advertisement-faq-and-reports-thread/
Options
It's the [Economy Thread], Stu... Silly Goose!
Heartlash
Registered User regular
Registered User regular
This thread is for the discussion of economics, macro and micro, with particular emphasis on the current US economy. Likewise, discussion of the global economy or those of specific non-US countries is certainly acceptable.
To get the ball rolling. The AP is reporting that last Q 2k9 the US economy experienced the largest growth since 2003, increasing 5.7%. This was the second quarter in a row of growth following 4 straight quarters of decline:
Article
Now, obviously we're in recovery mode, so such growth is to be expected. Still, it's hard to measure any sort of progress while unemployment is hanging around 10%. The traditional lag for job growth can be really brutal. Even so, knowing that businesses have something to feel confident about can be a boon on whether or not they start hiring. So we're ultimately left with the question: are things really starting to get better? Is the worst of the recession over? Or is this just a "recovery bubble"?
BTW, don't read the comments on some of these articles, yeesh. When the economy is failing it's Obama's fault, when it's improving the improvement "isn't real".
And here's a gem provided by Saammiel:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk
To get the ball rolling. The AP is reporting that last Q 2k9 the US economy experienced the largest growth since 2003, increasing 5.7%. This was the second quarter in a row of growth following 4 straight quarters of decline:
Article
Growth exceeded expectations mainly because business spending on equipment and software jumped 13.3 percent -- much more than forecast. It's the second quarter in a row that business spending has increased, after six quarters of decline.
The report provided an upbeat end to an otherwise dismal year: The nation's economy declined 2.4 percent in 2009, the largest drop since 1946. That's the first annual decline since 1991.
Still, economists expect growth to slow this year as companies finish restocking inventories and as government stimulus efforts fade. Many estimate the nation's gross domestic product will grow about 2.5 percent to 3 percent in the current quarter and about 2.5 percent or below this year.
That won't be fast enough to reduce the unemployment rate, now 10 percent. Most analysts expect it to keep rising for several months and remain close to 10 percent through the end of the year.
High unemployment is likely to keep consumers cautious about spending. Without strong consumer spending, economists worry the recovery could falter.
"That's why there's so much hand-wringing right now," said Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist for IHS Global Insight. "Can the economy really sustain this? That's the big question mark sitting out there."
Still, it's a "surprisingly good report," Bethune said, with several factors contributing to growth, including a rapid rise in exports and business investment.
...
Now, obviously we're in recovery mode, so such growth is to be expected. Still, it's hard to measure any sort of progress while unemployment is hanging around 10%. The traditional lag for job growth can be really brutal. Even so, knowing that businesses have something to feel confident about can be a boon on whether or not they start hiring. So we're ultimately left with the question: are things really starting to get better? Is the worst of the recession over? Or is this just a "recovery bubble"?
BTW, don't read the comments on some of these articles, yeesh. When the economy is failing it's Obama's fault, when it's improving the improvement "isn't real".
And here's a gem provided by Saammiel:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk
My indie mobile gaming studio: Elder Aeons
Our first game is now available for free on Google Play: Frontier: Isle of the Seven Gods
Our first game is now available for free on Google Play: Frontier: Isle of the Seven Gods
Heartlash on
0
Posts
I think the world is scheduled for GDP growth in 2010 across the board but if people are still out of jobs they aren't really going to care.
OBAMA IS RUINING THE ECONOMY WITH THIS TAX AND SPEND GET THE GOVERNMENT OUT OF THERE WE NEED MORE BUSH TAX CUTS COMMON SENSE SOLUTIONS LOOK AT MEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
As a tangent, but related to the overall theme of economics, I never understood the undue hand wringing about the US debt load. Yes, it can act as a drag on growth by turning government spending from welfare spending and infrastructure. No, our debt load isn't that outrageous. Plus right now we control the global currency. If shit really hit the fan we can inflate away the debt. It wouldn't be pretty, but it is an option.
Know who is really goosed? Japan. Jesus. They have been in a prolonged death spiral since 1990, although that death spiral gave us some insight into how to handle the current troubles I guess. Debt as a percentage of GDP is something like 200% (I think the US' debt load is about 80% of GDP). They have a looming demographic crisis and they have a problem with increasing youth disenfranchisement in the economy.
― Marcus Aurelius
Path of Exile: themightypuck
EDIT: Official graph.
That's two quarters of nice growth right there.
It's like Reaganomics, except the opposite, and it actually works.
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
Who gives a fuck as long as rich people are getting rich again
isn't that what really matters?
Sorry, but my cynicism is going crazy today.
Also, we're still in a mortgage crisis. Just now that the banks have strung this out for so long they aren't catching any flak from foreclosing on the majority of Americans.
Yeah, this. Unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. We started shedding jobs like crazy after the recession started and we will gain jobs after the recession has ended.
Unemployment is the real number to watch, nobody outside of CNN Money and Fox News cares if the Dow is up or down 5 points based on Obama's choice of shoes.
Good thing the growth number is GDP growth and not stock market growth then I guess. Which lots and lots of people care about. Not to say unemployment isn't important, but again, lagging indicator.
Except when they aren't foreclosing after 90 days.
Really depends on the state and the mortgage servicer.
The banks are stringing people along on HAMP trial plans for 6+ months then finding any small reason to issue a denial.
It is imploding right now. Commerical real estate is off by a huge amount.
Even though it's the metric we use, it's a pretty crappy metric when you think about it. Quarter to Quarter growth could still mean we're in deep shit. GDP is still 7% below where it was in 2008.
Shhhhhhhh, nobody want's to think about that.
Um. I'll assume imploding is implying crash.
When you say commercial real estate is 'off' are you saying its crashed, its undervalued, or what? I'm just curious. I haven't been watching the commercial prices too much, and want to make sure i understand.
we need a remix
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xE2M3RJJXA
The prices are down by a grand amount. They are not stablizing and the rental rates are atrocious for owners. There is a glut of supply that keeps growing because projects financed in 2005-2007 are being completed. The hotel industry is fucked right now. It's bad. It's real bad.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/search/label/CRE
It is off by a FUCKING HUGE amount.
I work at an architecture firm and can say with no amount of uncretainty the in my tri county area, this year so far, a grand total of ONE commercial building has been submitted for permit.
normally, that number would be around 20 in a good year.
Nothing new is being built and stuff that is being built is depreciating in price and rentability.
exactly.
we've been on 7 hour days for over a year because there is no work.
unfortunately, this (at least building/design) will be getting a lot worse before it gets better.
Upside: Less new construction means prices of existing stock will fall less than they otherwise would.
Unfortunately there are projects that take years to build and are still coming online to date. Sure, eventually it'll correct itself BUT people don't have the patience or cash to wait it out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk
I feel so, so sorry for my two friends who got their architecture degrees a year ago. There are no internships, even unpaid ones with a slim chance of maybe having a shot at an entry-level position.
YES YES YES YES YES!
wouldnt unemployment numbers raise a signifigant amount quicker then people actually lose their jobs?
Take this scenerio. Two parents. One has a job, one stays at home to watch the family. Right now they account for 0 unemployed.
Parent A loses their job.
Parent A cant find a new job quickly.
Parent B begins looking for work.
Parent B can not find a new job quickly.
They new account for 2 unemployed.
Im probably being a silly goose, but it seems to me it might have a rather large skew on numbers. From what ive been able to gather from various online sources, about 25 percent of families have only 1 working member, with married people occupying about 50 percent of the population.
That means about 12.5 percent of workers are doing so with a spouse at home not working. So it stands to reason that for every 100 jobs lost, 12.5 additional people become unemployed unrelated to job loss.
I have no idea what any of this means...other then the stimulus package is working!
downside: thousands and thousands and thousands of builders/carpenters/plumbers/electricians/architects/draftsmen/inspectors/permit specialists/etc. are fucked in the goose.
Working in a way that isn't falsifiable.
No, obviously not. But that's long term thinking you're engaging in.
I still support my local blacksmith.
My point had nothing to do with the stimulus...it was my way of saying my comments had no point and then picking an arbitrary unrelated statement to seemingly give it purpose.
I thought it was unrelated enough to be obvious, I suppose not.
I agree, that every square inch of the world need not be built on. Of course, most families can't live on 'so what', so there's that too.