The story so far
In 2002 Greece joined the newly formed Eurozone, giving up its currency, the Drachma.
In 2004 Eurostate questioned the economic data that the Greek government had submitted in its Eurozone application. In 2006 it was found that, at the time of joining the Euro, the Greek deficit was 6.1%, more than twice the allowed limit for entry into the Eurozone.
As the global recession set in, Greece's financial troubles were slowly brought into international focus, in autumn 2009 the Greeks ousted their conservative government and elected this man as their Prime Minister:
George Papandreou of the Pan-Hellenic Socialist Movement.
Almost immediately after his inauguration, Papandreou revealed that Greece's deficit was 12.7% of GPD and the country had a public debt of $410bn.
Things naturally went rapidly downhill from here..
A Timeline of subsequent events.
October 2009
* A new Greek government is formed after the election, led by PASOK, which received 43.92 % of the popular vote, and 160 of 300 parliament seats.
November 2009
* 5 Nov.: New budget draft reveals a deficit of 12.7% of GDP, more than twice the previously announced figure.
* 8 Nov.: Final budget draft aims to cut deficit to 8.7% of GDP in 2010. Draft also projects total debt rising to 121% of GDP in 2010 from 113.4% in 2009.
December 2009
* Dec. 8: Fitch Ratings cuts Greece's rating from A- to BBB+ with a negative outlook.
* Dec. 14: Greek PM Papandreou outlines first round of policies to cut deficit and regain investor trust.
* Dec. 16: S&P cuts Greece's rating to BBB+ from A-.
* Dec. 22: Moody's cuts Greece's rating to A2 from A1.
January 2010
* Jan. 14: Greece unveils the Stability and Growth Program which aimst to cut deficit from 12.7% in 2009 to 2.8% in 2012.
* Jan. xx: 5-year bond issue is five-times oversubscribed but yields and spreads rise.
February 2010
* Feb. 2: Government extends public sector wage freeze to those earning less than EUR 2,000 a month.
* Feb. 3: EU Commission backs Greece's Stability and Growth Program and urges it to cut its overall wage bill.
* Feb. 24: One-day general strike against the austerity measures halts public services and transport system.
* Feb. 25: EU mission in Athens with IMF experts delivers grim assessment of country's finances.
March 2010
* Mar. 5: New public sector wage cuts and tax increases is passed and estimated to generate savings of EUR 4.8 bn. Measures include increasing VAT by 2% to 21%, cutting public sector salary bonuses by 30%, increases on fuel, tobacco and alcohol consumption taxes and freezing state-funded pensions in 2010.
* Mar. 11: Public and private sector workers strike.
* Mar. 15: EMU finance ministers agree on mechanism to help Greece but reveal no details.
* Mar. 18: Papandreou warns Greece will not be able to cut deficit if borrowing costs remain as high as they are and may have to go to the IMF.
* Mar. 19: European Commission President José Manuel Barroso urges EU member states to agree a standby aid package for Greece. Barroso says the EMU countries should be on stand by to make bilateral loans.
* Mar. 25: ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet says his bank will extend softer rules on collateral (accepting BBB- instead of the standard A-) for longer (up to 2011) in order to avoid a situation where one ratings agency (Moody's) basically decides if an EMU country's bonds are eligible for use as ECB collateral.
* Mar.: €5bn in 10-year Greek bonds sold - orders for three times that amount are received.
April 2010
* Apr. 11: EMU leaders agree bailout plan for Greece. Terms are announced for EUR 30 bn of bilateral loans (roughly 5% for a 3-year loan). EMU countries will participate in the amount based on their ECB country keys. Rates for variable rate loans will be 3m-Euribor plus 300 bp + 100 bp for over 3-year loans plus a one-off 50 bp charge for operating expenses. For fixed rate loans rates will be swap rate for the loan's maturity, plus the 300 bp (as in variable) plus the 100 bp for loans over 3 years plus the 50 bp charge.
* Apr. 13: ECB voices its support for the rescue plan.
* Apr. 15: Olli Rehn says there is no possibility of a Greek default and no doubt that Germany will participate in the bail out plan. In the mean time there had been serious objections from parts of German society to the country's participation in the Greek bail-out.
* Apr. Sale of more than 1.5 billion euros Greek Treasury bills met with "stronger-than-expected" demand, albeit at a high interest rate.
* Apr. 23: Greece officially asks for the disbursement of money from the aid package effectively activating it.
* Apr. 27: Standard and Poor's downgrades Greece's debt ratings below investment grade to junk bond status.
* Apr. 27: S&P downgrades Portugese debt two notches and issues negative outlook, warning that further downgrades to junk status are likely. Stock indices around the world drop two to six percent on the news.
* Apr. 28 S&P downgrades Spanish bonds from AAA to AA-
Oh also, Ireland, Portugal and Spain are in trouble too. Fun times.
Posts
If they lied to enter the Euro Union I don't see why the EU should bail them out.
Great thread title, btw.
Robots Will Be Our Superiors (Blog)
http://michaelhermes.com
Because if they didn't, there would be a domino effect that would lead to massive devaluation of the euro across the entire eurozone, which, in the process, would turn Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italty (who, with Greece, make up the so-called "PIIGS") into similar basket cases. The problem then is that the crisis would be too large for any one country (most likely Germany) to bail them out.
I'm hoping that this crisis leads to a further political union. But I'm not sure what appetite there is for that.
The problem is that a lot of Euro-using countries have assets there.
So this is basically an international version of "too big to fail".
When do we want them? As soon as Greece collapses!
Lets bail them out in exchange for them becoming owned by us then. Win-win, cheap vacation properties and greek slaves!
Alternatively -- God of War 4 could be Kratos killing the economy
Critical Failures - Havenhold Campaign • August St. Cloud (Human Ranger)
I think the average bloke in Berlin agrees with you.
I'm interested in the argument this situation has spawned within the EU: Solidarity vs Stability. From what I see, Germany is firmly in the latter category: Historically they've shown tight financial discipline and I think they were rather reluctant to give up their stable Deutschmark if the Euro was going to fluctuate wildly. They'd rather the rules were enforced in the first place.
The counter argument is coming from a number of countries, including the countries at risk of falling into the Parthenon Pit; that in the name of European Solidarity and the eventual goal of integration, we should stick together through thick and thin. The counter-counter argument is that this concept of solidarity is what allowed Greece to slip in without getting its house in order.
It's been said this whole crisis highlights the major flaw with the Euro: Currency unity cannot work without Fiscal unity, where every participant follows similar procedures for controlling their economy. Addressing such a flaw requires one of two options.
1. Reorganize the Eurozone so that fiscal policy is more centralized.
2. Enforce the rules regarding fiscal discipline much more tightly, and eject those countries not towing the line.
Given that we've emerged from years of debate over what became the Lisbon Treaty, I don't know the appetite for more negotiations.
Whatever the outcome for the Euro, the arguments that have emerged from Brest to Białystok and from Helsinki to the Hellenic Republic suggest to me that the goal of European Integration is still a long way off. We still have many different ideas about how to go about things, and that will take quite a while to synchronise.
There is no appetite for more negotiations, especially with the UK election potentially putting a Tory government in Westminster.
Merkel however has already called for another one to establish financial agencies of our own but I haven't heard anything about that in a few months so it could just have been a stalling tactic while she figured out how to deal with Athens.
They are doing their job.
Or would you like them to lie about ratings like they did back in the US financial crisis when it came to CDOs?
A rating is just like a movie review. It doesn't have any basis in reality.
Also
I recall a certain toxic asset being given a "triple A" rating that it didn't deserve. What happened? A lot of regular workers pooled their retirement money into those supposedly-secure shares. Then the housing bubble burst and a hundred thousand regular workers lost their retirement savings.
Moral of the story: If Greece is going to default, by either none-payment or Europe prints Euros to inflate it's way out of this problem, then it's good that people realize that that's a possibility and they slow lending to Greece and not trust it as a safe place to save for retirement.
It also seems like this government's biggest mistake was admitting how badly the previous one fucked up
I don't believe it was a mistake. On the contrary, it was a very mature and honest move. If they had lied about this any further, then the situation would probably be much worse several years down the line. It's not like they could hide the deficit forever.
That's very short-term thinking.
If every year you run deficits, eventually your economy will vaporize. The US should take a close look at it's books. US is in a lot more trouble because it's the reserve currency. That makes it trusted more. That seems like it'd be a good thing, but really what it means is the rest of the world will keep loaning you money. Lengthening the rope you might end up hanging yourself with.
(I'm not an finance expert though, so just take what I say as 1 dude's opinion).
It's fun how old prejudices get dragged up in a crisis.
Plus, we can pool our money together and buy an island to form our own microstate!
This is so incorrect it's not even funny.
Then CDO's are Triple-A. Right? Totally safe!
Just because it's rated at whatever, doesn't change the fundamentals. Eventually reality will force interest rates and price to where they need to be.
That's certainly true, but I can definately see where Germany's coming from, "sell me an island" quips aside: Greece isn't in this situation because of a quirk of economics, or because of unforseen circumstances crippling their economy. They're in this mess because they've been fiddling the books and making poor financial decisions. Thinking from a German perspective, why should they bail out a country from a mess that's entirely of their own making? There are definately valid reasons, like not to do so screwing over the Euro in the long run, but it feels like the grasshopper demanding the ant's food because he didn't save any for winter.
And again, Germany's rather protectionist stance suggests the appetite for integration isn't as strong as we may have imagined in the good times.
With all the civil unrest in Greece, what's the evidence that they won't go further into debt after they're bailed-out?
A bailout only makes sense if Greece has a credible plan to pay-back what it owes. As a casual observer, I don't see it yet.
Germany is the biggest economy in the EU though. I do see where they come from, but they have been the primary engine as far as the entire European Union economic policies are concerned. I think that gives them some responsibilities too.
I think Germany is laying out demands, and with the IMF involved, Greece is certaintly in for a painful diet.
Of course people are going to riot instead of starving.
For sure. But what I'm worried about is that the Greek Government agrees to the diet, but the population rages out of control.
I heard that a lot of these generous social programs were actually a strategy to end a civil-war in Greece. If you take away the generous social programs (and add "debt repayment" programs) maybe Greek society will just fray and fall back into civil war.
Even IF there is a bailout.
This could be really really bad.
Like in the US everyone is angry about the TARP. It doesn't matter that it had to be done. WHARBLGARBL I say
Except they lied about those.
They aren't lying about Greece now.
People in Greece can riot all they want, or they can be grownups and realize that there is no money to pay for their social programs.
Rigorous Scholarship
Yea, ratings are just like movie reviews right? No actual consequences for people involved, right?
Well pulling the rug out underneath them in one fell swoop is horrible, and being a grownup doesnt factor into it. You dismantle something like that one brick at a time, you don't use dynamite.
They've been rioting, to an insane degree. I don't care how unhappy you are as an American I just can't fathom the rationale behind widespread vandalism, arson and destruction of property. Nice "protest", really got the point across better than peaceful demonstration. I highly recommend this work of photo-journalism to get a sense of WTF has been going on over there.
I can't imagine the terms of any bailout will allow Greece to gradually reduce spending over some long period of time. The donor nations are going to want to see some pretty drastic cuts in spending very quickly if they're going to pony up money for a bailout. Can't say that I blame them.
Rigorous Scholarship