Also, it's unlikely that the PRC will cut off ties to the DPRK anytime soon. Regime collapse would see a bunch of refugees coming into northeast China, and the likely presence of US troops even closer to the Yalu. Not exactly top of the CCP's wishlist for the next... ever.
I was about to come in here to say this. China supports NK because it benefits them to have a buffer between them and the US.
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Options
AssuranIs swinging on the SpiralRegistered Userregular
edited July 2011
As others have mentioned, there's really not much we can do. Every scenario for outside change possible is a losing scenario. The simple fact is even if we wanted to enact change, they have nukes and Seoul over a barrel. The theory of MAD remains that both sides are rational actors, and no rational actor wants a nuclear wasteland to live in (ok, so that was dumbed down, but basically correct). NK is certainly not rational, so I'm fairly confident that they'd merrily lob nukes at Japan and SK if the regime felt like they were going out anyways. Maybe even China if the Kims felt they were betrayed.
Wikileaks has tought us that even China has less influence than what the FP crowd thought. Try reading NK material at www.foreignpolicy.com and realize how little options we actually have regarding NK.
I came to the conclusion long ago that trickling technology in via cellphones, ipads, iphones, etc. is really our best hope to enact change.
It's a distressing situation, and one where many innocent people are going to die, but one we have to manage with patience.
As others have mentioned, there's really not much we can do. Every scenario for outside change possible is a losing scenario. The simple fact is even if we wanted to enact change, they have nukes and Seoul over a barrel. The theory of MAD remains that both sides are rational actors, and no rational actor wants a nuclear wasteland to live in (ok, so that was dumbed down, but basically correct). NK is certainly not rational, so I'm fairly confident that they'd merrily lob nukes at Japan and SK if the regime felt like they were going out anyways. Maybe even China if the Kims felt they were betrayed.
Wikileaks has tought us that even China has less influence than what the FP crowd thought. Try reading NK material at www.foreignpolicy.com and realize how little options we actually have regarding NK.
I came to the conclusion long ago that trickling technology in via cellphones, ipads, iphones, etc. is really our best hope to enact change.
It's a distressing situation, and one where many innocent people are going to die, but one we have to manage with patience.
Yes, I was only half joking earlier.
Our best bet is to passively increase access to information to the North Korean public. Direct confrontation wont get us anywhere.
they actually unbanned DVD players in NK a year or two ago and now a heap of pirated south korean media comes in from the chinese traders and makes some of them think "huh the south's not really that bad..."
wouldn't be surprised if there's huge demand for that too, south korean porn consumption rates are really high even though it's illegal to produce it there
Also, it's unlikely that the PRC will cut off ties to the DPRK anytime soon. Regime collapse would see a bunch of refugees coming into northeast China, and the likely presence of US troops even closer to the Yalu. Not exactly top of the CCP's wishlist for the next... ever.
I was about to come in here to say this. China supports NK because it benefits them to have a buffer between them and the US.
That, and by this point, the status quo is preferable to an even worse humanitarian catastrophe.
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I was about to come in here to say this. China supports NK because it benefits them to have a buffer between them and the US.
Wikileaks has tought us that even China has less influence than what the FP crowd thought. Try reading NK material at www.foreignpolicy.com and realize how little options we actually have regarding NK.
I came to the conclusion long ago that trickling technology in via cellphones, ipads, iphones, etc. is really our best hope to enact change.
It's a distressing situation, and one where many innocent people are going to die, but one we have to manage with patience.
Yes, I was only half joking earlier.
Our best bet is to passively increase access to information to the North Korean public. Direct confrontation wont get us anywhere.
kpop appreciation station i also like to tweet some
kpop appreciation station i also like to tweet some
On the other hand, Hanoi tried the same thing with bicycles, and it worked out pretty well for a lot of them.
That, and by this point, the status quo is preferable to an even worse humanitarian catastrophe.