Okay, I went through all of Virgil's posts. Not much there. Everyone he has voted for was non-mafia and is now dead, except for Corvidae who he argued with and voted for on multiple occasions. Conclusion: Corvidae is, for all intents and purposes, not suspicious.
He'd been quite quiet for him and hadn't really gotten into to many heated exchanges, as he almost always does.
Also, I do believe replacements are more likely to be Mafia.
(Kinda meta, I know.)
Not great reasons but there they are.
Baidol seems to have a good lead for the moment, so I'm going to !retract Baidol and !vote stever777, because he has been voting for me continuously ever since I subbed in to replace an inactive, and that is really starting to bug me as it has allowed him to dodge all of the fruitless bandwagons we've had so far.
Also, this confirmed it. What villager cares if another villager isn't on a villager-killing BW? Really.
Baidol seems to have a good lead for the moment, so I'm going to !retract Baidol and !vote stever777, because he has been voting for me continuously ever since I subbed in to replace an inactive, and that is really starting to bug me as it has allowed him to dodge all of the fruitless bandwagons we've had so far.
Also, this confirmed it. What villager cares if another villager isn't on a villager-killing BW? Really.
Good mafia generally hide in BW's. If I'm out of them, I'm exposing myself to suspicion. If I were mafia and doing that, they'd probably toss me under the next bus. :?
I am not finding much helpful in the confirmed mafia. However I am seeing a pattern. Aside from Baidol here, none of them have voted for any mafia.
I also took a look into wildwood, who has been pinging a lot of suspicions. He did throw a vote at Gumpy. And Gumpy threw a vote at Wildwood. Wildwood has about three dozen posts and a lot of votes for a lot of people, all of whom are villagers.
I am putting a tentative vote on !wildwood. I need to go to bed soon and I will try to dig through some more post/vote histories tomorrow.
That first line is a mangle. What I mean is aside from the bandwagon on Baidol, none of the dead mafia voted for anyone who wasn't a now-confirmed villager.
He did throw a vote at Gumpy. And Gumpy threw a vote at Wildwood. Wildwood has about three dozen posts and a lot of votes for a lot of people, all of whom are villagers.
Are you serious? Up until last night, everyone we had voted out was a villager. Most of the village has only voted for villagers. That's a ridiculous way to go about choosing a vote.
I stayed firm on Baidol from very early on in the day, all the way through the day. How is that mafia behavior? Or are you just pissed that I fought against your vote-switching scheme?
I believe all status update PMs are out, let me know if you didn't receive one etc. etc.
Don't be afraid to ask if you feel you're missing anything at all, the number of spirit abilities I have to manage now are getting a bit intense so the chances of host screwup up are increasing.
He did throw a vote at Gumpy. And Gumpy threw a vote at Wildwood. Wildwood has about three dozen posts and a lot of votes for a lot of people, all of whom are villagers.
Are you serious? Up until last night, everyone we had voted out was a villager. Most of the village has only voted for villagers. That's a ridiculous way to go about choosing a vote.
I stayed firm on Baidol from very early on in the day, all the way through the day. How is that mafia behavior? Or are you just pissed that I fought against your vote-switching scheme?
Well that's a pretty quick response.
But okay, I'll answer every bit of your post:
a) Am I serious?Yes, I am serious.
b) Up until last night, everyone we had voted out was a villager.Yes, it is true that everyone we voted out was a villager.
c) Most of the village has only voted for villagers.In fact, I am fairly certain that everyone *I* voted for, except for Baidol, was a villager. Actually, I didn't vote for Baidol either. However, I'm not sure it is true that "most of the village has only voted for villagers" though. There's a difference between an individual voting for only villagers in a 7-day (so far) mafia game and the village collectively voting out villagers for the same span of time. In fact, quite a few people voted for Baidol days ago. And I seem to recall some votes against Savant and SlyM as well. You voted for about seven different people, all of whom were villagers (but did not all die by maximum village vote.)
d) That's a ridiculous way to go about choosing a vote.If it were the only reason for my vote, then sure. But it isn't. Not only did you jump around from vote target to vote target quite often, but it never fell on a mafia. Very interesting. You voted for quite a few different people, too. Is that necessarily damning? No. Other people have been suspicious of you as well. Also not particularly damning, but there you are.
e) I stayed firm on Baidol from very early on in the day, all the way through the day. How is that mafia behavior?Really? This is the most suspicious thing you've said. How is hopping on a Baidol bandwagon as early as possible when a dead seer threw a vote at him and refusing to budge from it not exactly what a mafia would do in that situation?
f) Or are you just pissed that I fought against your vote-switching scheme?*snort* No. Come on now.
Anyway, I didn't say "hey guys let's bandwagon Wildwood" I said I was putting a tentative vote on you until I could look into other people's voting and posting histories. But the fact that you jumped on this almost immediately and are trying to claim that voting firmly for Baidol here is somehow "not mafia" is a bit suspicious. There was nothing not mafia about voting out Baidol.
Looking at baidol/virgil/savant during the facetious-rend-rysk-me-wildwood debate, they did hold themselves back. Baidol and virgil even commenting but not voting/switching votes. baidol not voting at all, virgil had an early vote on T_A. (savant even saying he doesn't believe in facetious but still not opting for the ww wagon instead; although he might not have been online after it was introduced, half an hour after his post). Was wondering if there was anything to find there concerning wildwood voting as I wanted
Rend (turned out villager) says not to kill corvidae, wildwood or T_A. Information he got elsewhere. Might have been faulty. But it's only one of the little things we have, so I'm not jumping to wildwood voting yet.
Unfortunately revealing exactly why any of my choices are bad choices would tip the mafia off as to why I said them.
Here's a hint: My list isn't composed of contacts or people I know. They are just people I know am 80-90% certain are bad vote targets. So, apologies that my reasoning won't quite be forthcoming.
Even though earlier that day he said T_A (!) and facetious were excellent vote targets. So it's something someone contacted him with later in the day.
I find one post of Virgil, made after the whole competing wildwood-facetious wagons debate, interesting:
So, I'm back from work. What's happening around here?
Did people look into Slym's voting record and pick targets, or are they still ignoring the one BS-proof clue we have?
With virgil being early to jump on baidol and emphasizing it's a dead seer's post and mentioning earlier to take a look at slym's voting record as BS-free proof I'm even more inclined to vote for someone slym voted on. But it's maybe a far fetch.
Understandable Rez on the Rend thing. his list of 7 presumed mafia has already about 4 dead villagers orso? Gotta check. But the exonerations he got SOMEHOW. Might've been duped but at least now I know he wasn't playing us intentionally.
edit: correction; 2 villagers + 1 (T_A) of which he changed his mind later. Langly, Stever, Lucedes, INANTP still unknown. And suspicions are of a different caliber than a '80-90% exoneration'
I'm sorry that I don't have time to do all the analysis at this exact moment...but I"m going to ask folks who may have the time.
Was there any point where the dead mafia were near the top of a bandwagon and the vote swung away from them (even consider a second or third place standing considering the nature of vote trickling).
Was there any point when other people who are still yet alive were at the top and the confirmed dead mafia voted to get them higher OR put their votes on second/third place targets to solidify those standings and thereby control the trickle effect?
Same two questions, but for the suspicious people still alive in this game.
I will attempt to look later, but lacking search functionality or any tracking spreadsheets etc I can't really do anything quickl or effectively at this point. These are just starting positions.
Posts
YES
GOOD DAY
But him and 2 other mages dying is.
We should have a LOT of information to pour over now.
Hey Jason Todd...how's it going....
oOOoOOoooOOoooOOO
The axeman cometh...
OOOOoooooOOOOooOOOOoooo
4. Stever777
5. Tmoiy
8. wildwood
11. INANTP (I Needed a Name to Post)
21. Cythraul
25. REG Rysk
28. Lucedes
29. Alegis
37. Kingmole
39. FecklessRogue
41. Drez
43. Corvidae
45. Jdarksun
46. Locus
The Black Hole of Cygnus X-1
Going through some others now.
Also, I do believe replacements are more likely to be Mafia.
(Kinda meta, I know.)
Not great reasons but there they are.
(and I was right!)
Anyone think I'm still suspicious?
I'm village.
The Black Hole of Cygnus X-1
Also, this confirmed it. What villager cares if another villager isn't on a villager-killing BW? Really.
The Black Hole of Cygnus X-1
Why would mafia care either, though?
Good mafia generally hide in BW's. If I'm out of them, I'm exposing myself to suspicion. If I were mafia and doing that, they'd probably toss me under the next bus. :?
The Black Hole of Cygnus X-1
The Black Hole of Cygnus X-1
I also took a look into wildwood, who has been pinging a lot of suspicions. He did throw a vote at Gumpy. And Gumpy threw a vote at Wildwood. Wildwood has about three dozen posts and a lot of votes for a lot of people, all of whom are villagers.
I am putting a tentative vote on !wildwood. I need to go to bed soon and I will try to dig through some more post/vote histories tomorrow.
Are you serious? Up until last night, everyone we had voted out was a villager. Most of the village has only voted for villagers. That's a ridiculous way to go about choosing a vote.
I stayed firm on Baidol from very early on in the day, all the way through the day. How is that mafia behavior? Or are you just pissed that I fought against your vote-switching scheme?
go with god and all that
Steam
This is a little suspicious or maybe just a noob comment. Are you a noob?
The Black Hole of Cygnus X-1
Don't be afraid to ask if you feel you're missing anything at all, the number of spirit abilities I have to manage now are getting a bit intense so the chances of host screwup up are increasing.
The Black Hole of Cygnus X-1
Well that's a pretty quick response.
But okay, I'll answer every bit of your post:
a) Am I serious? Yes, I am serious.
b) Up until last night, everyone we had voted out was a villager. Yes, it is true that everyone we voted out was a villager.
c) Most of the village has only voted for villagers. In fact, I am fairly certain that everyone *I* voted for, except for Baidol, was a villager. Actually, I didn't vote for Baidol either. However, I'm not sure it is true that "most of the village has only voted for villagers" though. There's a difference between an individual voting for only villagers in a 7-day (so far) mafia game and the village collectively voting out villagers for the same span of time. In fact, quite a few people voted for Baidol days ago. And I seem to recall some votes against Savant and SlyM as well. You voted for about seven different people, all of whom were villagers (but did not all die by maximum village vote.)
d) That's a ridiculous way to go about choosing a vote. If it were the only reason for my vote, then sure. But it isn't. Not only did you jump around from vote target to vote target quite often, but it never fell on a mafia. Very interesting. You voted for quite a few different people, too. Is that necessarily damning? No. Other people have been suspicious of you as well. Also not particularly damning, but there you are.
e) I stayed firm on Baidol from very early on in the day, all the way through the day. How is that mafia behavior? Really? This is the most suspicious thing you've said. How is hopping on a Baidol bandwagon as early as possible when a dead seer threw a vote at him and refusing to budge from it not exactly what a mafia would do in that situation?
f) Or are you just pissed that I fought against your vote-switching scheme? *snort* No. Come on now.
Anyway, I didn't say "hey guys let's bandwagon Wildwood" I said I was putting a tentative vote on you until I could look into other people's voting and posting histories. But the fact that you jumped on this almost immediately and are trying to claim that voting firmly for Baidol here is somehow "not mafia" is a bit suspicious. There was nothing not mafia about voting out Baidol.
The Black Hole of Cygnus X-1
I've been in somewhere between 5-10 phallas. Is that still noob territory?
IT BURRRRRRRRRRRRRRRNS
oooooooooOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooo
Eh... 50/50. Learned anything yet? I haven't after 15! :shock:
Should've seen my first! ouch.
The Black Hole of Cygnus X-1
I've learned a few things, but mostly that my posting style usually makes me a target six or seven days in...
I think Drez and I disagree on how many mafia we think are left.
Drez, weren't you going to sleep?
The Black Hole of Cygnus X-1
Don't miss...analysis to come. Just caught up what was said post narration.
But first...WORK!
Rend (turned out villager) says not to kill corvidae, wildwood or T_A. Information he got elsewhere. Might have been faulty. But it's only one of the little things we have, so I'm not jumping to wildwood voting yet. Even though earlier that day he said T_A (!) and facetious were excellent vote targets. So it's something someone contacted him with later in the day.
I find one post of Virgil, made after the whole competing wildwood-facetious wagons debate, interesting:
Which is a scary notion.
Also, I don't feel comfortable following Rend's suspicions or exonerations at this point. Not sure what they were based on.
Understandable Rez on the Rend thing. his list of 7 presumed mafia has already about 4 dead villagers orso? Gotta check. But the exonerations he got SOMEHOW. Might've been duped but at least now I know he wasn't playing us intentionally.
edit: correction; 2 villagers + 1 (T_A) of which he changed his mind later. Langly, Stever, Lucedes, INANTP still unknown. And suspicions are of a different caliber than a '80-90% exoneration'
Was there any point where the dead mafia were near the top of a bandwagon and the vote swung away from them (even consider a second or third place standing considering the nature of vote trickling).
Was there any point when other people who are still yet alive were at the top and the confirmed dead mafia voted to get them higher OR put their votes on second/third place targets to solidify those standings and thereby control the trickle effect?
Same two questions, but for the suspicious people still alive in this game.
I will attempt to look later, but lacking search functionality or any tracking spreadsheets etc I can't really do anything quickl or effectively at this point. These are just starting positions.
Umm, I'm considering myself pretty much confirmed villager, after my Savant votes.
And I am a villager.
The Black Hole of Cygnus X-1
Savant's votes:
Day 3 - Free Agent
Day 4 - SeGaTai -> Infidel
Day 5 - 101
Day 6 - Facetious
Day 7 - Baidol -> Stever777
Baidol's votes:
Day 1 - MaxFrost
Day 2 - warban
Day 3 - Retaba
Day 4 - Peccavi
Day 5 - 101
Day 6 - None
Day 7 - Virgil_Leads_You
Virgil's votes:
Day 1 - Mr. Defecation
Day 2 - warban
Day 3 - warban
Day 4 - Corvidae
Day 5 - Corvidae
Day 6 - The Anonymous
Day 7 - Baidol
Gonna give my thoughts in a little bit.