go eat at The Dog House. It is on 13th and....Cincinatti? Maybe Boston.
It started as a food cart but is now a tiny little restaurant and they have super awesome 100% beef hot dogs and every topping you could ever want from bacon to melted peanut butter and are open until 3 AM on weekends.
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ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
I had Dog House for lunch on Thursday. They make the list too. I like Jim's Coney Island more but only because I go there for the Greek Food and not for the dogs (which for the price are great).
Knotty Pine BBQ used to be the best in town till it burned down. :<
I went to school there from...2005-2010. Moved back home to save up some cash and finish my degree, which will (hopefully) happen in December. I was there for both awful ice storms. A friend and I grew out our beards, wore flannel shirts, and walked around town offering to chop up downed limbs and branches for people. And then at night I'd freeze in my 40 degree house.
I'm off to bed, but if either of you gents are ever around this area, feel free to hit me up. Safe chasing, Chimera!
I went to school there from...2005-2010. Moved back home to save up some cash and finish my degree, which will (hopefully) happen in December. I was there for both awful ice storms. A friend and I grew out our beards, wore flannel shirts, and walked around town offering to chop up downed limbs and branches for people. And then at night I'd freeze in my 40 degree house.
I'm off to bed, but if either of you gents are ever around this area, feel free to hit me up. Safe chasing, Chimera!
You have likely seen or heard me on TV then during severe weather. I was KFSM's only chaser and the primary chaser at KNWA while you were there but you will have to figure out who I am on your own as I wont say on here.
i'm afraid to correct y'all and have my favorites overrun. but Chimera, you pain me with that Sushi Train -- have you tried the Fuji on 71st, or In the Raw?
also, Umberto's is okay, but we haven't been back since our roaches incident. and anyway, the beau wasn't fond of the spices in the crust (cinnamon? nutmeg? it's been years, now...) restaurant pizza, we eat Hideaway or La Roma, though i've heard good things bout Joe Momma's; Andolini's gets a second chance to prove itself.
In the Raw is awesome. My wife had never had Sushi before, so I ordered a little bit of everything pretty much and to my surprised she enjoyed it. We actually go up to OKC just for that and a movie sometimes. Worth the drive.
I ate at the Toby Keith's with a group of battles and I thought the water tasted soapy with salt (wtf) and the burger carried with it the taste of the freezer. Blech.
Since I have Eli now I have to wait a bit before venturing out for long periods of time, (one big pain in the ass for supporting OWS) but once I can I plan on hitting up most of the places you guys are listing. I love photos and food! Can't wait.
ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
In the Raw and Fuji are both great but expensive! Sushi Train is super cheap. Best Sushi ever though that I have had (and I used to live next to the ocean) is at Sushi House in Bentonville, AR.
Bastard...... WE SHOULD! That is my favorite comedy of all time! Don't have me point out the flaws in it though, it may ruin it for you. Bill Paxton is my hero though.
Have any of you been to Wakita, OK where they filmed it? I actually saw the real farm they used to film Joe's truck getting sucked away, get destroyed by a real tornado in 2010. Other than the parts filmed around Wakita, most of the movie was shot in Iowa and not Oklahoma.
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ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
edited November 2011
Check out this insanity that the NWS OUN (National Weather Service of Norman, OK) is posting about this year so far in Oklahoma....
2011 in Oklahoma - Record-Breaking Year in Review
by US National Weather Service Norman Oklahoma on Sunday, November 6, 2011 at 8:35am
Last night's 5.6 earthquake was the strongest ever recorded in Oklahoma. Even though it has nothing to do with weather, the new record is another on a long list of records set in Oklahoma this year.
Here's a rundown of some of the statewide records for Oklahoma so far this year.
Most Snow in a 24 Hour Period:
27 inches
Spavinaw, OK
Feb 9-10, 2011
Coldest Temperature:
-31 degrees
Nowata, OK
Feb 10, 2011
Largest Hailstone:
6.0 inches
2 miles north of Gotebo
May 23, 2011
Highest Wind Speed highest official surface wind measurement (not radar-based)
150.8 mph
El Reno
May 24, 2011
Highest Summer Average Temperature:
86.8 degrees
This was also the hottest average summer temperature in history for any state
Warmest August Average Temperature:
87.7 degrees
There are statewide records, and do not include records set in individual cities, etc.
I was there for everyone of the records. In fact my chase partner and I were the ones that found the Gotebo stone while working on Project HailSTONE (http://www.hailstoneresearch.org/). Here is a photo of it....
Here is the NWS's conformation of the record being broken by us in the form of a public weather statement.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2011
...NEW RECORD HAILSTONE FOR OKLAHOMA...
THE STATE CLIMATE EXTREMES COMMITTEE...MADE UP OF REPRESENTATIVES
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL
SURVEY...HAS DETERMINED THAT A HAILSTONE THAT FELL NEAR GOTEBO
OKLAHOMA ON MAY 23 2011 IS THE NEW STATE RECORD LARGEST HAILSTONE
FOR THE STATE OF OKLAHOMA.
THE SIX INCH DIAMETER STONE WAS RETRIEVED AND DOCUMENTED BY A HAIL
RESEARCH TEAM OBSERVING STORMS IN THE AREA. INVESTIGATION BY NWS AND
OCS DETERMINED THAT THE GOTEBO HAILSTONE WAS THE LARGEST DOCUMENTED
HAILSTONE.
$$
SMITH
During the record snow and subsequent record cold it was fun to drive around and do live streaming with TWC. During the cold you could toss boiling water into the air and watch it instantly freeze and turn to snow. Does anyone know why this happens? I do!.... but I want to test your minds. Now no cheating or anything like that and don't use Google. The winner will get a hand drawn analysis from myself of Monday's severe weather forecast!
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ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
It seems the NWS in Norman, OK is falling into line with my forecast. Check out their graphic for Monday and notice where my target of Wichita Falls, TX is in it.
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ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
edited November 2011
On the latest outlook the SPC has pushed the system back to the west a bit which means I may readjust my target to Childress, TX but I would start by heading to Wichita Falls first.
Lawton/ Ft. Sill will be under the gun too!
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ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
In the Raw does a pretty fine job of doing it right. I've eaten sushi from all over the world, including Okinawa and it's yummy! Okinawa is also the only placed I tried sashimi because I trusted I wouldn't get some food disease that would turn my veins inside out or something.
In the Raw does a pretty fine job of doing it right. I've eaten sushi from all over the world, including Okinawa and it's yummy! Okinawa is also the only placed I tried sashimi because I trusted I wouldn't get some food disease that would turn my veins inside out or something.
In the Raw does a pretty fine job of doing it right. I've eaten sushi from all over the world, including Okinawa and it's yummy! Okinawa is also the only placed I tried sashimi because I trusted I wouldn't get some food disease that would turn my veins inside out or something.
Fuck, i'll try anything once.
Anything?!....
Well, food-wise, lol. And some-not-food wise. I've had a wide range of bugs and plants and things one wouldn't normally eat on a regular basis. I avoid fast food because I like to cook but I am actually going to have my first Whataburger today! A1 burger as suggested. I'll let you know what I think.
ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
Detailed forecast for Monday, 11/7/11 coming soon....
Brief summary: Lawton, OK to Wichita Falls, TX has the chance of a few potentially strong tornadoes in the early afternoon through the evening hours. Defiantly be cautious if you live in southwest Oklahoma and north central Texas. Tornadoes, large damaging hail, and strong straight line winds will be the primary threats with any storm that fires.
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ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
edited November 2011
Day One (11/7/11) Chase and Severe Weather Outlook: VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
PRIMARY TARGET: Wichita Falls, Texas. SECONDARY TARGET: Altus, Oklahoma
TIMING: Early afternoon through late evening. BRIEF OVERVIEW: Later today a sufficient threat for severe weather looks to be setting up in sw OK and nc TX today with the risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Given the available shear and instability a few strong tornadoes are not out of the question, as well as hail larger than 2 inches in diameter, especially along points south of I-40 in Oklahoma and down into nc Texas. DISCUSSION: North Central Texas, Southwest Oklahoma
This morning there is a complex of training showers and thunderstorms in Oklahoma along the stalled front and 60*F dewpoint line. These storms are a good sign of the strong moisture return we are seeing as 60 degree dews are what we want today! The nocturnal low level jet (LLJ) is really cranked up and is what is feeding these storms. In the image above, which you may have to enlarge to read the text, you will see just how far north the 60*F dews are reaching currently into Oklahoma. You will also see in the little map to the top left how warm it is despite being very early in the morning.
These storms are expected to clear the area fairly early in the day to allow for enough day time heating to add to the instability and create an environment ripe for severe storms. this coupled with the upper level energy being delivered by a vigorous shortwave trough that is rotating into the target area will lead to a busy day in southwest Oklahoma and north central Texas.
Looking at the forecasted sounding out of SPS (Wichita Falls, TX) the severe weather probs will be more than needed to get rotating storms and even a few tornadoes. The looping hodograph is textbook classic for vigorous suppercells in this kind of environment and so I see nothing preventing a tornado watch being issued for SPS and its surrounding areas.
Looking at the sounding (pictured above) you will want to enlarge it and look at the little numbers by the arrows I added to it. These are your most important numbers on here for the purposes of which we will be looking at. You will see that each is in the perfect range for the type of isolated storm that we want to have to be able to produce photogenic storm structure, tornadoes, and chaseable hail. For those of you that can't make sense of the numbers, here is a guide for you: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
Looking back at my first post on this thread you will see where I mentioned that we look at a skew-t plot to see where the cape is and how shallow and deep it is. On the one above I have taken the liberty of coloring in the CAPE with light red so you can easily see it. You will see that it is very deep and so instability is not really as much of an issue as it was before. The only concern I have is the CIN. It is somewhat harder to see on this skew-t and I didn't shade it in for you but with values at -60 at 0z I am a bit relieved that the cap doesn't 100% erode away as this will help storms stay isolated.
LCL heights should be well under 1000ft so any storm that does fire up will certainly be surfaced base from its inception. Remember, only surfaced based storms will produce tornadoes and the lower to the ground the LCL height is the more likely you will have tornadoes with any supercells that fire up.
The on major concern that I still have is how long will the environment be able to play host to isolated convection before opening up and allowing explosive upscale development into an unchaseable nightmare of an MCS (blob of convection/ cluster-fuck of storms). The SPC is still betting on this to occur sooner than later which will limit any time I will have with a storm before it gets run over or merges with another cell and looses its tornadic potential. What the SPC says, and lord knows they know more than I do with their PHDs, is that storms will line out into a linear MCS (squall line) by late afternoon. This means that I will likely have only a few hours at the most to get what I seek. Any storm that is able to stay ahead of the line will likely be a monster but the MCS is supposed to really accelerate as the cold front decouples and comes racing through.
If you look at the hodograph you will see that I added the orientation of a compass to it. The blue line that makes the big loop is the shear. The green line I drew on is the perfect storm motion using the new shear vector theory that Les Lemon is pioneering and that I have had great success. If the NAM (which this forecast and this sounding is based off of) is correct, we will need to get storms to move in that direction to get violent tornadoes. Any more to the right and there wont be any tornadoes, any more to the left and there will be only weak tornadoes.
All in all, while this isn't as nearly impressive as some of the events earlier this year has been, this is a classic fall tornado producing setup and one worth chasing. I will likely be leaving in about 6 hours for Wichita Falls, TX and look forward to a busy day in the field.
For those of you that live in sw OK (especially in and around Altus and Lawton, OK) to nc TX (especially in and around an area from Childress to Wichita Falls and possibly south towards Abilene, TX) you need to remain on the extreme lookout for severe weather watches and warnings and head any that are posted. I expect tornado watches to stretch from I-40 in Oklahoma all the way down to San Angelo, TX and stretch from the eastern panhandle boarder of Texas and a line straight south to the I-35 corridor.
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ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
In an somewhat unrelated note, the NWS in Norman has a cool graphic that shows the radar site at Twin Lakes (KTLX) picking up birds and insects taking flight as they got spooked by the earthquake.
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Raneadospolice apologistyou shouldn't have been there, obviouslyRegistered Userregular
it just rained for literally 10 seconds and then stopped
ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
Above are the forecasted soundings for Wichita Falls, TX from the 12z run of the NAM, and then the GFS. The NAM is for 21z while the GFS is for 18z. (HallowedFaith, I hope you can do the conversion from local time to z time with out my help. The rest, just Google z time or if you are in central time you subtract 5 hours.)
You will see that they show almost ZERO cap with a large amount of instability and plenty of shear. This means around 18z (plus or minus and hour) we will see storms fire in the target area of nc Texas and sw Oklahoma.
I unfortunately had a last second situation crop up and will be unable to make it to my chase target on time. I will however still be giving forecasts and nowcasts for this event. My target is still Wichita Falls, TX or Altus, OK with me now leaning more towards Altus.
The SPC has shifted the risk for significant tornadoes a bit to the west and north and I do not disagree with this action. My only concern is with so little in the way of capping that we may see too many storms fire all at once. If that is the case this day will become a sloppy mess in a hurry. If not then the area will be rife with happy chasers who will nab a few, highly photogenic tornadoes and maybe loose a window or two in their chase vehicle.
Lawton is now a bit east of the primary tornado threat, but still be on the look out if you are there. YOU WILL HAVE SEVERE WEATHER, it just may not be accompanied by a tornado.
If I were chasing I would be leaving now and racing to Lawton, from there I would most likely head west to Altus, OK.
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ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
One thing that is interesting to note that I forgot to mention is that a pretty stout cap starts to form at 0z. It will be interesting to see if this leads to broken line segments which means that tornadoes will still be possible, although nearly impossible to chase after storms start to line out.
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ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
edited November 2011
((EDIT @ 12:45pm Central standard time: Explosive storm development underway in nc TX and far sw OK. Storms are tracking generally NNE so any storm that turns right will be the one to focus on. It looks like that too many cells are firing but as of right now they are just barely spaced out far enough in some cases in TX to not kill each other off. The stuff in sw Oklahoma looks very linear and elongated. Many chasers are scrambling west to get on the early convection. If I were there I would stay still in Altus or Childress and wait for isolated storms out of Texas and ignore the stuff that is popping up north of the Red River. I expect a tornado watch to be issued any second now!))
Looking on Spotter Network the amount of chasers out in an area from Lawton, OK to Altus, OK, to Wichita Falls, TX, to Childress, TX is mind boggling. What an absolute nightmare the chaser convergence will be. Almost glad I can't chase now as there will be traffic jams next to every storm.
Convection is starting to fire along the east boarder of the TX panhandle and down into nc TX. This may be a bad sign as it is REALLY early and on the northern side of the threat area morning storms are just now starting to clear the area. This may grow upscale way too quickly and if storms hold their NNE to N tracks they will not produce much unless a localized area of different shear vector profiles and boundaries laid out by the morning storms can get a storm to line up with the proper degree of the shear vector.
I am starting to think a lot of chasers may become disappointed today if stuff blows up too quickly early on, ruins what little daytime heating there has been, and forms into a junky massconvective mess.
Looking on SimuAWIPS at the various satellite products and the current radar returns you can see the agitated cu field. Agitated cu is the start of updrafts trying to form. You will also see plenty of areas where radar echos are starting to pop up of storms that have just fired and are trying to get going. There also is an area of very high CAPE calues and strong LI values just south of the Red River between Childress, and Wichita Falls, TX. I expect any storm that gets rooted to quickly become a supercell but if to many form they will try to starve one another and grow upscale into a multicellular mess and kill off todays chances of a quality chase.
Here is a screen grab from SimuAWIPS that I labeled for you all to see.
The SPC has also seen this trend in convective development and has just issued a mesoscale discussion as I was typing this. They are stating that a tornado watch will likely be issued in the early afternoon.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2288
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX/SERN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 071827Z - 072000Z
PORTIONS OF NWRN TX/SERN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN OK ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND INCREASING SVR WEATHER
THREAT. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER W
TX...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO
FAR SERN KS. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT
N-NW INTO THE REGION...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. IN ADDITION...PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE WARM SECTOR IS
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. THOUGH
PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WELL W OF THE SRN PLAINS...VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD/CLOUD STREETS
WITH EMBEDDED TOWERING CUMULUS ARE DEEPENING OVER NWRN TX. THIS AREA
OF IMPLIED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS JUXTAPOSED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J PER KG/ AND AMPLE
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MESOSCALE AND
BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AS WELL AS 50+ KT SWLY FLOW
SPREADING ACROSS THE LINE OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING...WHICH MAY FAVOR A
DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE DURING THE INITIAL STAGES OF THIS
CONVECTIVE EVENT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...AND
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE SRH
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR EXCEEDING 200 M2 S-2 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS SLY LLJ INCREASES TO 40 KT/...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
TORNADO ON THE GROUND! Just about halfway between Altus, OK and Lawton, OK. NAILED THE FORECAST!..... but then had to miss out on the hyper-photogenic tornado.
watch the chasers that are out there live here: http://www.imaptracker.com/ The stream you want to watch is Ben Holcomb's. He is a good personal friend of mine and was with in a few hundred yards of the tornado.
Yeah I was outside watching the clouds and playing with my dog when my phone alerted me to the tornado. Thought about hauling ass to try and snap some photos but thought that driving into a tornado is your job.
I have snacks instead now.
sidenote; the layering and colors of these clouds is cool. Like the top layer is all super slow and this bottom layer is hauling ass and pushing it around. Pretty neat stuff.
ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
So HallowedFaith, here is the tornado that was just to the west of you today. This was one of three.
At the time that tornado was on the ground, another was on the ground just out of shot, behind the photographer (Bob Fritchie).
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ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
Just a brief follow up of my forecast and the severe weather event that unfolded on 11/7/11 near HallowedFaith's home.
There were at least 6 tornadoes including two strong tornadoes, one of which was a violent multi-vortex tornado. The storm that spawned these tornadoes. My initial forecasted target that I made on Nov 3rd was off by about 40 miles to the southeast of where the tornadoes touched down. As the days grew closer I made my targeted area into an area from Wichita Falls, TX to Childress, TX, to Altus, OK, to Lawton, OK. All of the tornadoes that occurred on this day happened with in this box. Around 2:30am on the day of the event I issued my final primary forecast before switching to nowcasting. In that forecast I listed Altus, OK as my secondary target. The tornadoes came with in about 8 miles of Altus, OK. I got pretty damn close!
If you are wondering why I did not forecast for the 11/8/11 tornadoes it is because I knew for a certainty that they would be non-chaseable or photogenic and so I ignored that day for that fact.
Till next time, keep your eyes on the sky!
((Also if you want we can just go into general weather discussions now that I'm not distracted by forecasting for the 11/7/11 event. There is another severe weather event coming up for the central plains around early next week (Sun-Mon) but this event looks like a fast moving line of storms with little chase-ability.))
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ChimeraMonster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered Userregular
TORNADO SEASON 2012 FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS STARTS TODAY!
Hey everyone, it's that time of the year again! When tornadoes and powerful supercells with mammoth hail assault the central plains. This happens to be the busiest time of the year for me since I chase storms. This is my prime time when storms will be in highly photogenic parts of the country. Last year was a record year with massive tornadoes plaguing areas mainly east of the traditional tornado alley. This year looks to be different. In fact the southern plains drought that brought about the wild fires of Texas and Oklahoma last year is on the decline and this means more moisture and storms in areas west of last year.
Last year the Dixey Alley played host to the bulk of most major outbreaks, followed by the Midwest and then the central plains. This is a problem for me as a chaser for three reasons. More people live there and thus there are more people to get hurt and killed, furthermore the road network and terrain as well as the large amount of trees make it very hard to film storms, and lastly most storms that happen in that part of the country are "high precipitation supercells," meaning that they produce a large amount of rain and this will often obscure the tornadoes from view. Bellow is a map of all the NWS warning forecast areas and how many tornado warnings they issued through out all of last year. You will see the bulk of the tornado warnings happened out of the traditional tornado alley.
But enough about last year, it's time to move on to this season with my first forecast on here for the 2012 chase season!
(NOTE: I will use some big scary words and acronyms in my forecast. To help you with these I will be posting links to their meanings for you in this thread. Just click on the blue words to learn what they mean.Furthermore some of the products and images I will post will be time stamped with utc time or z time (eg: 00z). That is the time it is in London, England using a 24 hour clock. You will also see me refer to height a lot in pressure instead of feet or kilometers. This is because in the winter the atmosphere is not as tall as it is in the summer but no matter what time of the year the jet stream and other major features of our atmosphere always stay at the same pressure height. The higher in pressure you go, the lower in the atmosphere you are. 1000mb is just above the surface, 500mb is where the jet stream and all upper level features I will refer to are.)
***MARCH 16th, 2012 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
Outlook area: Western Oklahoma, Texas Panhandle, Northwest and Southwest Texas.
Discussion: A shortwave trough that is located over the Gulf of California is due to eject out into the southern plains of Texas today in advance of a much stronger upper level system that will effect the central plains later in the period. This system will be a show before the show, so to speak. In the image bellow you can see the shortwave over western Texas at 00z on the 17th. This is the upper level energy that will both help fire storms off and keep them sustained.
Instability will be in abundance for this system, with CAPE values near, and in excess of 2000 J/kg over the risk area. This will allow for explosive storm development once storms do start to fire around 21z. Any storm that does initiate will quickly mature with in the matter of minutes and pose an immediate risk of large hail. In addition to this, there will be just enough of a cap in place to keep too many cells from firing. You want your storms to stay isolated so they do not compete for moisture and can have a clean inflow.
In addition to this prime environment for storm development, there will be plenty of quality wind shear in place. This is what helps tilt a storm's updraft making it sustainable, and causes it to rotate. A rotating updraft is known as a mesocyclone. Storms that have mesocyclones are known as supercells, which are the type of storms that produce your most destructive tornadoes and hail. In the product bellow you will see that in se Oklahoma and nw Texas the winds at the surface (the red barbs) are coming out of the sse and are blowing at 15kts. Where as the winds at the 500mb level are blowing out of the west at 35kts. This shows there is a good change in speed from the surface to 500mb level and that there is also good directional change as well. The winds between there, at the 700mb level, are coming out of the due southwest and are moving at 25 to 30kts which further helps the turning with height and the change in speed with height by keeping it an even and smooth change. Balance is key in sustaining a good supercell.
Really everything is in place for this day to be a great tornado produce EXCEPT for one thing, adequate moisture. The surface dew points in the risk area will only reach around 55 to 60°F while the surface temps will get as high as the upper 70's and low 80's. This spread of >14°F will cause the storms to be anemic and VERY high based. We are talking bases that will be in excess of 1000ft. This is a problem because it means that the storms are not feeding off the surface and thus cannot produce tornadoes. Elevated supercells can still produce mammoth hail and incredible structure and thus these will be the primary things to chase. I have once collected hail that was 6" in diameter on a storm that was elevated. Bellow you will see the LCL heights, this tells us where the base of the storms will be. You will see our risk area of nw Texas, and the Texas Panhandle are in the yellow. You want your risk area to be in the green to have tornadoes.
There are multiple models that we use in Meteorology to forecast with. The images above were generated by the NAM. The primary models are the ECMWF, NAM, and GFS. They are the long range models. Once you get to the day of the event you can use short range models like the 4km WRF, RUC, and the HRRR. This early in the morning, only the 4km WRF can see out far enough to accurately predict what it thinks will happen. Contrary to the NAM, which fears the moisture will be to lacking for storms to fire in abundance before dark, the WRF shows a slew of supercells in the risk area of sw OK and nw Texas. I am inclined to agree with it, only I imagine we will see just a tad less storms. Once 12z rolls around we will have the sounding balloons up in the air and a better grasp on what will actually happen today, but as of now my forecast is Paducah, Texas. I foresee massive hail >3" in diameter and highly photogenic storms yet very fiew and brief tornadoes, if any.
The SPC feels like there is a better chance for tornadoes today than I think. They see a brief window just before dark when the dews may get high enough and the temps low enough for storms to become surfaced based. If the models are under doing the moisture return and the LCL heigths can stay under 1000ft, any storm will be capable of producing a tornado. They also drew the threat area much farther south than I did and took it all the way to the Mexican boarder. This region is known for its surprises and some caprock magic may yeild to a photogenic tornado. I still personally think the real show will be on Sunday and that day we will see tornadoes, possibly strong ones, in western Kansas and Oklahoma and in the Texas Panhandle. I will write a forecast up on that event later today.
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Going to the one in Denver ruined it for me since you can literally do anything in the one in Denver. The South Park episode does not lie.
go eat at The Dog House. It is on 13th and....Cincinatti? Maybe Boston.
It started as a food cart but is now a tiny little restaurant and they have super awesome 100% beef hot dogs and every topping you could ever want from bacon to melted peanut butter and are open until 3 AM on weekends.
Knotty Pine BBQ used to be the best in town till it burned down. :<
I'm off to bed, but if either of you gents are ever around this area, feel free to hit me up. Safe chasing, Chimera!
there is one in Jenks that has the sign out front
CONEY ISLANDER
AND
GREEK CUISINE
(We do not serve Greek Cuisine)
Jim's was the first to do that. The rest are all imitations and can't compete!
Some of the Bill and Ruth's are pretty good. I know the owner of the one in Sand Springs and on north Aspen in BA pretty well.
You have likely seen or heard me on TV then during severe weather. I was KFSM's only chaser and the primary chaser at KNWA while you were there but you will have to figure out who I am on your own as I wont say on here.
I got a meatball sub that might be the worst sandwich I have ever eaten.
also, Umberto's is okay, but we haven't been back since our roaches incident. and anyway, the beau wasn't fond of the spices in the crust (cinnamon? nutmeg? it's been years, now...) restaurant pizza, we eat Hideaway or La Roma, though i've heard good things bout Joe Momma's; Andolini's gets a second chance to prove itself.
I ate at the Toby Keith's with a group of battles and I thought the water tasted soapy with salt (wtf) and the burger carried with it the taste of the freezer. Blech.
Since I have Eli now I have to wait a bit before venturing out for long periods of time, (one big pain in the ass for supporting OWS) but once I can I plan on hitting up most of the places you guys are listing. I love photos and food! Can't wait.
Bastard...... WE SHOULD! That is my favorite comedy of all time! Don't have me point out the flaws in it though, it may ruin it for you. Bill Paxton is my hero though.
Have any of you been to Wakita, OK where they filmed it? I actually saw the real farm they used to film Joe's truck getting sucked away, get destroyed by a real tornado in 2010. Other than the parts filmed around Wakita, most of the movie was shot in Iowa and not Oklahoma.
I was there for everyone of the records. In fact my chase partner and I were the ones that found the Gotebo stone while working on Project HailSTONE (http://www.hailstoneresearch.org/). Here is a photo of it....
Here is the NWS's conformation of the record being broken by us in the form of a public weather statement.
During the record snow and subsequent record cold it was fun to drive around and do live streaming with TWC. During the cold you could toss boiling water into the air and watch it instantly freeze and turn to snow. Does anyone know why this happens? I do!.... but I want to test your minds. Now no cheating or anything like that and don't use Google. The winner will get a hand drawn analysis from myself of Monday's severe weather forecast!
Lawton/ Ft. Sill will be under the gun too!
Fuck, i'll try anything once.
Anything?!....
Well, food-wise, lol. And some-not-food wise. I've had a wide range of bugs and plants and things one wouldn't normally eat on a regular basis. I avoid fast food because I like to cook but I am actually going to have my first Whataburger today! A1 burger as suggested. I'll let you know what I think.
That, or earthquakes. Not quite sure anymore.
Brief summary: Lawton, OK to Wichita Falls, TX has the chance of a few potentially strong tornadoes in the early afternoon through the evening hours. Defiantly be cautious if you live in southwest Oklahoma and north central Texas. Tornadoes, large damaging hail, and strong straight line winds will be the primary threats with any storm that fires.
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
PRIMARY TARGET: Wichita Falls, Texas.
SECONDARY TARGET: Altus, Oklahoma
TIMING: Early afternoon through late evening.
BRIEF OVERVIEW: Later today a sufficient threat for severe weather looks to be setting up in sw OK and nc TX today with the risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Given the available shear and instability a few strong tornadoes are not out of the question, as well as hail larger than 2 inches in diameter, especially along points south of I-40 in Oklahoma and down into nc Texas.
DISCUSSION: North Central Texas, Southwest Oklahoma
This morning there is a complex of training showers and thunderstorms in Oklahoma along the stalled front and 60*F dewpoint line. These storms are a good sign of the strong moisture return we are seeing as 60 degree dews are what we want today! The nocturnal low level jet (LLJ) is really cranked up and is what is feeding these storms. In the image above, which you may have to enlarge to read the text, you will see just how far north the 60*F dews are reaching currently into Oklahoma. You will also see in the little map to the top left how warm it is despite being very early in the morning.
These storms are expected to clear the area fairly early in the day to allow for enough day time heating to add to the instability and create an environment ripe for severe storms. this coupled with the upper level energy being delivered by a vigorous shortwave trough that is rotating into the target area will lead to a busy day in southwest Oklahoma and north central Texas.
Looking at the forecasted sounding out of SPS (Wichita Falls, TX) the severe weather probs will be more than needed to get rotating storms and even a few tornadoes. The looping hodograph is textbook classic for vigorous suppercells in this kind of environment and so I see nothing preventing a tornado watch being issued for SPS and its surrounding areas.
Looking at the sounding (pictured above) you will want to enlarge it and look at the little numbers by the arrows I added to it. These are your most important numbers on here for the purposes of which we will be looking at. You will see that each is in the perfect range for the type of isolated storm that we want to have to be able to produce photogenic storm structure, tornadoes, and chaseable hail. For those of you that can't make sense of the numbers, here is a guide for you: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
Looking back at my first post on this thread you will see where I mentioned that we look at a skew-t plot to see where the cape is and how shallow and deep it is. On the one above I have taken the liberty of coloring in the CAPE with light red so you can easily see it. You will see that it is very deep and so instability is not really as much of an issue as it was before. The only concern I have is the CIN. It is somewhat harder to see on this skew-t and I didn't shade it in for you but with values at -60 at 0z I am a bit relieved that the cap doesn't 100% erode away as this will help storms stay isolated.
LCL heights should be well under 1000ft so any storm that does fire up will certainly be surfaced base from its inception. Remember, only surfaced based storms will produce tornadoes and the lower to the ground the LCL height is the more likely you will have tornadoes with any supercells that fire up.
The on major concern that I still have is how long will the environment be able to play host to isolated convection before opening up and allowing explosive upscale development into an unchaseable nightmare of an MCS (blob of convection/ cluster-fuck of storms). The SPC is still betting on this to occur sooner than later which will limit any time I will have with a storm before it gets run over or merges with another cell and looses its tornadic potential. What the SPC says, and lord knows they know more than I do with their PHDs, is that storms will line out into a linear MCS (squall line) by late afternoon. This means that I will likely have only a few hours at the most to get what I seek. Any storm that is able to stay ahead of the line will likely be a monster but the MCS is supposed to really accelerate as the cold front decouples and comes racing through.
If you look at the hodograph you will see that I added the orientation of a compass to it. The blue line that makes the big loop is the shear. The green line I drew on is the perfect storm motion using the new shear vector theory that Les Lemon is pioneering and that I have had great success. If the NAM (which this forecast and this sounding is based off of) is correct, we will need to get storms to move in that direction to get violent tornadoes. Any more to the right and there wont be any tornadoes, any more to the left and there will be only weak tornadoes.
All in all, while this isn't as nearly impressive as some of the events earlier this year has been, this is a classic fall tornado producing setup and one worth chasing. I will likely be leaving in about 6 hours for Wichita Falls, TX and look forward to a busy day in the field.
For those of you that live in sw OK (especially in and around Altus and Lawton, OK) to nc TX (especially in and around an area from Childress to Wichita Falls and possibly south towards Abilene, TX) you need to remain on the extreme lookout for severe weather watches and warnings and head any that are posted. I expect tornado watches to stretch from I-40 in Oklahoma all the way down to San Angelo, TX and stretch from the eastern panhandle boarder of Texas and a line straight south to the I-35 corridor.
Here is what the NWS in Norman, OK is saying: http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=OKZ037&warncounty=OKC141&firewxzone=OKZ037&local_place1=Manitou+OK&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook
In an somewhat unrelated note, the NWS in Norman has a cool graphic that shows the radar site at Twin Lakes (KTLX) picking up birds and insects taking flight as they got spooked by the earthquake.
ugh the weather here is balls
I'll take earthquakes over tornadoes thanks.
Above are the forecasted soundings for Wichita Falls, TX from the 12z run of the NAM, and then the GFS. The NAM is for 21z while the GFS is for 18z. (HallowedFaith, I hope you can do the conversion from local time to z time with out my help. The rest, just Google z time or if you are in central time you subtract 5 hours.)
You will see that they show almost ZERO cap with a large amount of instability and plenty of shear. This means around 18z (plus or minus and hour) we will see storms fire in the target area of nc Texas and sw Oklahoma.
I unfortunately had a last second situation crop up and will be unable to make it to my chase target on time. I will however still be giving forecasts and nowcasts for this event. My target is still Wichita Falls, TX or Altus, OK with me now leaning more towards Altus.
The SPC has shifted the risk for significant tornadoes a bit to the west and north and I do not disagree with this action. My only concern is with so little in the way of capping that we may see too many storms fire all at once. If that is the case this day will become a sloppy mess in a hurry. If not then the area will be rife with happy chasers who will nab a few, highly photogenic tornadoes and maybe loose a window or two in their chase vehicle.
Lawton is now a bit east of the primary tornado threat, but still be on the look out if you are there. YOU WILL HAVE SEVERE WEATHER, it just may not be accompanied by a tornado.
If I were chasing I would be leaving now and racing to Lawton, from there I would most likely head west to Altus, OK.
@12:30pm Central standard time:
Looking on Spotter Network the amount of chasers out in an area from Lawton, OK to Altus, OK, to Wichita Falls, TX, to Childress, TX is mind boggling. What an absolute nightmare the chaser convergence will be. Almost glad I can't chase now as there will be traffic jams next to every storm.
Convection is starting to fire along the east boarder of the TX panhandle and down into nc TX. This may be a bad sign as it is REALLY early and on the northern side of the threat area morning storms are just now starting to clear the area. This may grow upscale way too quickly and if storms hold their NNE to N tracks they will not produce much unless a localized area of different shear vector profiles and boundaries laid out by the morning storms can get a storm to line up with the proper degree of the shear vector.
I am starting to think a lot of chasers may become disappointed today if stuff blows up too quickly early on, ruins what little daytime heating there has been, and forms into a junky massconvective mess.
Looking on SimuAWIPS at the various satellite products and the current radar returns you can see the agitated cu field. Agitated cu is the start of updrafts trying to form. You will also see plenty of areas where radar echos are starting to pop up of storms that have just fired and are trying to get going. There also is an area of very high CAPE calues and strong LI values just south of the Red River between Childress, and Wichita Falls, TX. I expect any storm that gets rooted to quickly become a supercell but if to many form they will try to starve one another and grow upscale into a multicellular mess and kill off todays chances of a quality chase.
Here is a screen grab from SimuAWIPS that I labeled for you all to see.
The SPC has also seen this trend in convective development and has just issued a mesoscale discussion as I was typing this. They are stating that a tornado watch will likely be issued in the early afternoon.
watch the chasers that are out there live here: http://www.imaptracker.com/ The stream you want to watch is Ben Holcomb's. He is a good personal friend of mine and was with in a few hundred yards of the tornado.
Please?
I have snacks instead now.
sidenote; the layering and colors of these clouds is cool. Like the top layer is all super slow and this bottom layer is hauling ass and pushing it around. Pretty neat stuff.
At the time that tornado was on the ground, another was on the ground just out of shot, behind the photographer (Bob Fritchie).
There were at least 6 tornadoes including two strong tornadoes, one of which was a violent multi-vortex tornado. The storm that spawned these tornadoes. My initial forecasted target that I made on Nov 3rd was off by about 40 miles to the southeast of where the tornadoes touched down. As the days grew closer I made my targeted area into an area from Wichita Falls, TX to Childress, TX, to Altus, OK, to Lawton, OK. All of the tornadoes that occurred on this day happened with in this box. Around 2:30am on the day of the event I issued my final primary forecast before switching to nowcasting. In that forecast I listed Altus, OK as my secondary target. The tornadoes came with in about 8 miles of Altus, OK. I got pretty damn close!
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20111107
If you are wondering why I did not forecast for the 11/8/11 tornadoes it is because I knew for a certainty that they would be non-chaseable or photogenic and so I ignored that day for that fact.
Till next time, keep your eyes on the sky!
((Also if you want we can just go into general weather discussions now that I'm not distracted by forecasting for the 11/7/11 event. There is another severe weather event coming up for the central plains around early next week (Sun-Mon) but this event looks like a fast moving line of storms with little chase-ability.))
Hey everyone, it's that time of the year again! When tornadoes and powerful supercells with mammoth hail assault the central plains. This happens to be the busiest time of the year for me since I chase storms. This is my prime time when storms will be in highly photogenic parts of the country. Last year was a record year with massive tornadoes plaguing areas mainly east of the traditional tornado alley. This year looks to be different. In fact the southern plains drought that brought about the wild fires of Texas and Oklahoma last year is on the decline and this means more moisture and storms in areas west of last year.
Last year the Dixey Alley played host to the bulk of most major outbreaks, followed by the Midwest and then the central plains. This is a problem for me as a chaser for three reasons. More people live there and thus there are more people to get hurt and killed, furthermore the road network and terrain as well as the large amount of trees make it very hard to film storms, and lastly most storms that happen in that part of the country are "high precipitation supercells," meaning that they produce a large amount of rain and this will often obscure the tornadoes from view. Bellow is a map of all the NWS warning forecast areas and how many tornado warnings they issued through out all of last year. You will see the bulk of the tornado warnings happened out of the traditional tornado alley.
But enough about last year, it's time to move on to this season with my first forecast on here for the 2012 chase season!
(NOTE: I will use some big scary words and acronyms in my forecast. To help you with these I will be posting links to their meanings for you in this thread. Just click on the blue words to learn what they mean.Furthermore some of the products and images I will post will be time stamped with utc time or z time (eg: 00z). That is the time it is in London, England using a 24 hour clock. You will also see me refer to height a lot in pressure instead of feet or kilometers. This is because in the winter the atmosphere is not as tall as it is in the summer but no matter what time of the year the jet stream and other major features of our atmosphere always stay at the same pressure height. The higher in pressure you go, the lower in the atmosphere you are. 1000mb is just above the surface, 500mb is where the jet stream and all upper level features I will refer to are.)
***MARCH 16th, 2012 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
Outlook area: Western Oklahoma, Texas Panhandle, Northwest and Southwest Texas.
Chase target: Paducah, Texas.
Timing: Early afternoon through the overnight hours. Storms likely to fire around 1-3pm local time.
Threats: (Primary threat) Large destructive hail, (secondary threat) damaging wind gusts, (minor threat) isolated tornadoes.
Discussion: A shortwave trough that is located over the Gulf of California is due to eject out into the southern plains of Texas today in advance of a much stronger upper level system that will effect the central plains later in the period. This system will be a show before the show, so to speak. In the image bellow you can see the shortwave over western Texas at 00z on the 17th. This is the upper level energy that will both help fire storms off and keep them sustained.
Instability will be in abundance for this system, with CAPE values near, and in excess of 2000 J/kg over the risk area. This will allow for explosive storm development once storms do start to fire around 21z. Any storm that does initiate will quickly mature with in the matter of minutes and pose an immediate risk of large hail. In addition to this, there will be just enough of a cap in place to keep too many cells from firing. You want your storms to stay isolated so they do not compete for moisture and can have a clean inflow.
In addition to this prime environment for storm development, there will be plenty of quality wind shear in place. This is what helps tilt a storm's updraft making it sustainable, and causes it to rotate. A rotating updraft is known as a mesocyclone. Storms that have mesocyclones are known as supercells, which are the type of storms that produce your most destructive tornadoes and hail. In the product bellow you will see that in se Oklahoma and nw Texas the winds at the surface (the red barbs) are coming out of the sse and are blowing at 15kts. Where as the winds at the 500mb level are blowing out of the west at 35kts. This shows there is a good change in speed from the surface to 500mb level and that there is also good directional change as well. The winds between there, at the 700mb level, are coming out of the due southwest and are moving at 25 to 30kts which further helps the turning with height and the change in speed with height by keeping it an even and smooth change. Balance is key in sustaining a good supercell.
Really everything is in place for this day to be a great tornado produce EXCEPT for one thing, adequate moisture. The surface dew points in the risk area will only reach around 55 to 60°F while the surface temps will get as high as the upper 70's and low 80's. This spread of >14°F will cause the storms to be anemic and VERY high based. We are talking bases that will be in excess of 1000ft. This is a problem because it means that the storms are not feeding off the surface and thus cannot produce tornadoes. Elevated supercells can still produce mammoth hail and incredible structure and thus these will be the primary things to chase. I have once collected hail that was 6" in diameter on a storm that was elevated. Bellow you will see the LCL heights, this tells us where the base of the storms will be. You will see our risk area of nw Texas, and the Texas Panhandle are in the yellow. You want your risk area to be in the green to have tornadoes.
There are multiple models that we use in Meteorology to forecast with. The images above were generated by the NAM. The primary models are the ECMWF, NAM, and GFS. They are the long range models. Once you get to the day of the event you can use short range models like the 4km WRF, RUC, and the HRRR. This early in the morning, only the 4km WRF can see out far enough to accurately predict what it thinks will happen. Contrary to the NAM, which fears the moisture will be to lacking for storms to fire in abundance before dark, the WRF shows a slew of supercells in the risk area of sw OK and nw Texas. I am inclined to agree with it, only I imagine we will see just a tad less storms. Once 12z rolls around we will have the sounding balloons up in the air and a better grasp on what will actually happen today, but as of now my forecast is Paducah, Texas. I foresee massive hail >3" in diameter and highly photogenic storms yet very fiew and brief tornadoes, if any.
The SPC feels like there is a better chance for tornadoes today than I think. They see a brief window just before dark when the dews may get high enough and the temps low enough for storms to become surfaced based. If the models are under doing the moisture return and the LCL heigths can stay under 1000ft, any storm will be capable of producing a tornado. They also drew the threat area much farther south than I did and took it all the way to the Mexican boarder. This region is known for its surprises and some caprock magic may yeild to a photogenic tornado. I still personally think the real show will be on Sunday and that day we will see tornadoes, possibly strong ones, in western Kansas and Oklahoma and in the Texas Panhandle. I will write a forecast up on that event later today.