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Dec 2011 Prediction Thread - get out your crystal balls for the next generation!
UncleSporky
Registered User regular
Registered User regular
So for those who don't know: the Vita just had its second week on sale in Japan. It sold 72k, worse than every other major platform there. The 3DS sold 482k, almost five times as much as the second place platform.
Contrary to how it may seem, this is not the primary thrust of this thread!
Right now, PA's industry thread, other forums and even some major news sites have been quick to get in on some Vita gloom and doom based on this info. Some are talking like poor Vita sales have been a given for a long time now, writing's been on the wall, most sane people expected this outcome.
To which I thought, did we really? How long have we expected it to do poorly, and is this rough start in Japan really indicative of long term struggles?
Which made me think of the next generation of home consoles. How do we expect them to do? Will the past repeat itself? Heck, which past?
A lot of discussion on this subject goes on in the industry thread, but it's interspersed with everything else. I decided to make this thread to try and consolidate predictions in one place, and because it is generally entertaining to look back at how we thought things would turn out in previous years. This will be one to bookmark!
Hopefully we can revisit this subject after E3, and then after all three new consoles are out, then a year later, etc.
Go as in depth or as vague as you'd like. These are the sorts of burning questions we need pre-answers to:
- How many millions will the 3DS/Vita/WiiU/PS4/720 sell in each major territory? What will the ratio between them look like in five years? If you think it's too early to call, feel free to define a specific scenario - if PS4 regains exclusives the PS3 lost, if WiiU improves its online capabilities, etc.
- How many SKUs will each console have, and what will they look like? Do you think anyone will go discless, or court casuals and hardcore separately?
- How many handheld revisions will we see, when will we see them, and what form will they take?
- What sort of controllers should we expect to see standard with each console, and how will this affect mass market appeal?
- Who's going to gain exclusives, who's going to lose exclusives, and how will this drive or hurt hardware sales?
- How will consoles be affected by the rise in popularity for portable devices? How will handhelds be affected by the rise in popularity for smartphones?
- Who is doomed and/or going third party?
Please be polite. I realize this is sort of a pure console warz thread, but hopefully we can keep it civil. Remember, it's not about what you want to see happen or which platform is best in your opinion, it's about what you expect to see happen.
What do you think?
Contrary to how it may seem, this is not the primary thrust of this thread!
Right now, PA's industry thread, other forums and even some major news sites have been quick to get in on some Vita gloom and doom based on this info. Some are talking like poor Vita sales have been a given for a long time now, writing's been on the wall, most sane people expected this outcome.
To which I thought, did we really? How long have we expected it to do poorly, and is this rough start in Japan really indicative of long term struggles?
Which made me think of the next generation of home consoles. How do we expect them to do? Will the past repeat itself? Heck, which past?
A lot of discussion on this subject goes on in the industry thread, but it's interspersed with everything else. I decided to make this thread to try and consolidate predictions in one place, and because it is generally entertaining to look back at how we thought things would turn out in previous years. This will be one to bookmark!
Hopefully we can revisit this subject after E3, and then after all three new consoles are out, then a year later, etc.
Go as in depth or as vague as you'd like. These are the sorts of burning questions we need pre-answers to:
- How many millions will the 3DS/Vita/WiiU/PS4/720 sell in each major territory? What will the ratio between them look like in five years? If you think it's too early to call, feel free to define a specific scenario - if PS4 regains exclusives the PS3 lost, if WiiU improves its online capabilities, etc.
- How many SKUs will each console have, and what will they look like? Do you think anyone will go discless, or court casuals and hardcore separately?
- How many handheld revisions will we see, when will we see them, and what form will they take?
- What sort of controllers should we expect to see standard with each console, and how will this affect mass market appeal?
- Who's going to gain exclusives, who's going to lose exclusives, and how will this drive or hurt hardware sales?
- How will consoles be affected by the rise in popularity for portable devices? How will handhelds be affected by the rise in popularity for smartphones?
- Who is doomed and/or going third party?
Please be polite. I realize this is sort of a pure console warz thread, but hopefully we can keep it civil. Remember, it's not about what you want to see happen or which platform is best in your opinion, it's about what you expect to see happen.
What do you think?
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That's viable for the likes of Catherine and Final Fantasy, sure. Tales of, Wizardry, Disgaea, and Hyperdimension Neptunia, not so much.
Microsoft has a clinch on the NA market with the way Kinect is doing, let alone the marketing behind it. The problem Microsoft faces is all based on what Sony does; if Sony decides to push the 'casual' market with less emphasis on 'gamer'-gamers, and Microsoft pushes emphasis on 3rd party support (namely RPGs) they may start to make a case for the Japanese market. But that's a VERY very specific course of events that won't play out.
Sony has shown me at this point that they don't give a fuck about what people demand. Sony is trying to influence demand and the market and they've been losing. The best thing that happened for them in 2011 was the PR they pulled with their E3 conference. It even convinced me that they were going to turn around, but they aren't. So PS4 prediction? Same shit. xXxHARDCORExXx GAEMZ AND GRAFIX, that sort of shit. Proprietary tech will be used for some asinine feature that could be solved by currently existing (and cheap) tech, while retaining Blu-Ray format. My guess is something related to the HDD for security purposes.
I really don't think we know enough about what form Sony's and MS's consoles will take to make good long term predictions, though. A lot hinges on how they react to Nintendo's tablet controller, whether they adopt it for themselves or follow their own path. For prediction's sake? I'll say Sony will have a screen built in, perhaps smaller than Nintendo's so as not to sacrifice a more traditional controller design. Microsoft will also have a screened controller but won't include it in at least one of their hardware SKUs and thus hamstring its penetration.
I think it's a safe bet that Microsoft will continue to pursue Kinect technology. I once saw a prediction that MS would release a Kinect-focused casualbox and a power-focused machine for core audiences, but I think MS is smart enough to see that splitting the userbase like that isn't a good idea.
As for 3DS and Vita, I'll go ahead and predict that Vita is going to perform better than the PSP in the US, and 3DS will perform significantly worse than the DS, but 3DS will still lead the Vita overall. Honestly I think the American public is scared of how 3D will affect their baby's eyes. Maybe I put too much importance on that, but I think it's going to cut down on the sights we've seen this gen of seven year olds carrying Lites around.
In Japan...I'm not going to take this slow start for the Vita as an ironclad vision of the future. Supply constraint is a legitimate defense at this point (it's literally the second week). But because the 3DS does have Monster Hunter this time around (former saving grace of the PSP), I think we'll probably see a repeat of DS vs. PSP over there. Eventually a really attractive title will show up that sets Japan on fire for the Vita, but 3DS will maintain a comfortable lead.
I don't know a lot about the European market!
Microsoft: The 360's successor will come bundled with an enhanced version of Kinect by default. The system will be a general media device first - gaming will be just one of its many features and not even necessarily its primary one.
Sony: The PS Vita will do about as well as the PSP did but will have less of a problem with piracy. Unlike the PSP, the Vita will be more successful outside of Japan than in it. Sony will be the last one to release their next home console so they can see what the other companies do and respond to them (which probably means copy them).
Zeboyd Games Development Blog
Steam ID : rwb36, Twitter : Werezompire, Facebook : Zeboyd Games
I know, isn't it great?
And Nintendo hasn't launched first in a while. It's done wonders for the 3DS in Japan, gave them the time they needed to fix their platform before the competition showed up. Launching WiiU first worldwide could give them a similar edge...or it could just make them look even more outdated in the face of their competition.
I should expanded on that bit you quoted. What I meant to say, and it still fits in your reply's context, is that every company has done something counter to their nature this past year or two. So it's like they're all capable of anything.
Next gen consoles;
I'm expecting we should hear more about WiiU soon (obviously). I'm expecting current-gen or marginally improved levels of power, with some neat but gimmicky uses of that there screen, along with some sort of as-yet unannounced 'secret wow factor'. There will be a 'wtf' element (similar to the Wii name / 1.5 Gamecubes) for people to have a pop at, for a while. Most interested in hearing about peripheral prices - Nintendo were swift to move when the 3DS felt overpriced and folks complained, their screen controllers will either be damned expensive or thoroughly reasonable - people will react with equal levels of hate/love as per their console warz stance regardless. Looking forward to seeing what the 'Wii Sports' equivalent software might be. Nintendo will really have to work on their online functionality since owning piles of screens is probably cost-prohibitive and same-room multiplayer seemingly appears passe for certain genres. Would like to see focus on Wii-compatability, but on the other hand that hardware seems so old-hat at this point they may want to distance themselves from this gen as much as possible. I also expect a shell redesign, looks too much like Wii 1.5 at this point, everyone seemed confused what it was when it was revealed. Price is just too hard to work out on what we currently know.
Microsoft will wait for concrete details to emerge about WiiU before announcing details about their next Xbox, would probably want to remove some wind from Nintendo's sails if possible before launch. I'm probably in the minority here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a new box in the shops for Holiday 2012, following an announcement this summer. Improved Kinect functionality and Windows integration a focus. Needs some sort of 'x-factor' to mark a worthwhile reason for users to upgrade and to get the hardcore market interested. I expect to see even more 'living room functionality', more TV relationships formed. Microsoft also need to build a bit more love with third parties and indie devs, they started this gen with great intentions but certain elements of the 360 (indie games being all-but-hidden, certification process) need a bit of a tweak. Also some tweaks made to Live functionality to keep ahead of the pack, they will also continue charging but 'add more value' again. Microsoft will need to double their efforts to capture the hearts of the hardcore at the start of the gen, especially those who feel annoyed at their recent Kinect-focus while still emphasising their enthusiasm for the peripheral. I expect backwards compatibility with Kinect 1.0 with limited functionality, Kinect 2.0 will add extra gubbins. I love, love, love the 360 pad and hope the next console keeps a very similar (if not identical) pad. Controller BC would be wonderful. Two models at launch, one barbones, one with all the trimmings, will still try to launch for under £300.
Sony will be last to announce, probably with a load of over-inflated details and promises again, before launching last. Needs to be cheaper than the PS3 launched. Like MS, they will require some form of 'x-factor', Blu-ray will be featured but can't be used to justify $599OLOL again. Move to be improved to have more Kinect-style integration. I think Sony will really try to woo the third party devs, and make certain relationships a big selling point for the console. Sony may redesign their main controllers again, but will switch back to dualshock when buyers revolt. Focus on integration with Vita. More PSN security announced, more features playing catch up with Live, but will Sony start to charge for online?
At this point, there isn't really much to go on for any of the consoles...
As for handhelds;
I'm surprised they are still viable with smartphones becoming more and more popular. I honestly don't know any adults (IRL) who openly use them regularly, or talk about them, unlike consoles. I know piles of kids who are into them though, but if smartphones continue to rise in popularity and become more affordable? Who knows.
Exclusives are going to be few and far between, I think. If anyone is going to lose exclusives, it's Sony. Not lose as in the game won't show up on the console, but it'll show up for competitors. It's going to balance things out. Which means features of a console are going to matter way more. I don't use any of the services provided by the consoles but as an outsider looking in, the 360 has a pretty strong thing going on there. So it'll give them a lead over Sony, and may inspire Sony to do something retarded or something genius. I doubt there will be a middleground.
The joke answer is that the PC will gain exclusives.
This is something that a lot of people I think will appreciate. Not necessarily demanded, but once it is in people's hands and word of mouth goes around, it'll start to take root. And the Kinect thing is a definite given. The only up-in-the-air thing about MS is the kind of games they put in the spotlight.
That's a very strange call, I've got to admit. It's not that I disagree but I wanna hear more on what you think about that! The big thing is, if that's true, will Japanese devs come out of their funk of only trying to appease their native market (I would hope yes). And on the console side, yeah, Sony is going to be reactionary. If they're smart.
It's not only the accessibility, I think third parties are mostly wise to the idea of better business by building games across the various platforms. The new frontier in exclusives might be the indie game channels.
Depending on who adopts a touch screen controller, that could capture a few exclusives, but whether they turn out to be system sellers is questionable.
Actually the Wii was pretty much an exclusive machine this time around, between its high profile Nintendo franchises and games built around the controller. I'd say that exclusives are pretty much the main reason they did so well: you couldn't play Wii Sports anywhere else.
Well, yeah, I guess Nintendo is going to hold a bunch of exclusives. But so is Microsoft, via Kinect.
... Wow, Sony better come up with something.
With the WiiU I see an arrogant Nintendo confident that they can do no wrong. The Wii had a central concept that while often flawed in actual practice got people - both longtime gamers and non-gamers - very excited. Although I'm sure that clever games can be designed for the WiiU controller screen, I just don't see it causing much excitement among any particular group.
From what I've heard, developing for the PS Vita is very similar to developing for the PS3 and porting a PS3 game to the PS Vita is relatively easy. Who are the ones with all the PS3 & HD home console experience? Western developers. That's why I think the system will see more success overall in the West than in Japan, although it will receive some Japanese support, especially early on, due to Sony's strong ties with various Japanese developers & publishers.
Oh and I agree with your joking comment that the PC is going to win out when it comes to exclusives. Based on my personal experience and what I've heard from others, Valve/Steam is far easier to work with and more supportive of other developers than Nintendo/Sony/Microsoft.
Zeboyd Games Development Blog
Steam ID : rwb36, Twitter : Werezompire, Facebook : Zeboyd Games
Actually Sony has far more 1st and 2nd party franchises and studios than either Nintendo or Microsoft. It's just easy to overlook because they don't really have anything as massive as Mario or Halo.
Zeboyd Games Development Blog
Steam ID : rwb36, Twitter : Werezompire, Facebook : Zeboyd Games
Well see, the funny part about that is Sporky corrected me about Nintendo and Microsoft. They clinch exclusives because they have shit you can't copy without copyright infringement becoming a danger. And the PC platform is, well, the PC platform. Everyone has exclusive content, Sony has nothing (right now) that the other competitors can't provide already. "Higher-res more hardcore" wand games weren't the answer at all.
So, I should revise my Sony statement to include that they need a gimmick (I know that's generally a negative word around here, but I mean it as a unique function) if they want the inevitable PS4 to have a chance. The gimmick may be proprietary format though, it's their fucking card that they play a lot.
It's hard to say - the wikipedia page on the respective companies franchises was very unhelpful (for the Nintendo one, it only mentioned the mainstream ones we've all heard about whereas for the Sony one, it mentions just about every game published by Sony eve)r.
I do think it's likely that Sony has more game studios working for them than Nintendo does. Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't Nintendo basically just have Nintendo of Japan and a few 2nd party studios like Intelligent Systems, Retro, and Game Freak? Whereas Sony has several development teams in Japan, the US, and Europe, several game companies they own like Naughty Dog, Sucker Punch, and MediaMolecule, in addition to various 2nd party developers.
Zeboyd Games Development Blog
Steam ID : rwb36, Twitter : Werezompire, Facebook : Zeboyd Games
There are six EAD teams including the Tokyo one. Then there is Int Sys (which may actually be as many as three seperate development groups now) HAL, Sora, Pokemon Company, Brownie Brown, Monolith Soft, ND Cube (Mario Party), Retro, NST.
Then there are a bunch of satallite companies that much like various Sony entities are third party in name only.
Why? Because I'm going to predict, that they'll have very similar architectures.
Both will use some form of PPC cpus. They might even use the same damn chips.
They will both have AMD gpus. Probably different generation cards and die sizes, but still closely related.
The only differences will most likely be how much ram they'll have as well as some hardware gimmicks.
This ofcourse ignores how different the software support will be between the two machines.
I have no idea what Sony will do.
And my prediction is based on the idea that both Microsoft and Nintendo want to include hardware BC.
Probably has everything to do with their motion-control solutions. Luckily Nintendo was smart enough to reintroduce a new more standard buttons-buttons-buttons controller.
The one thing I do support, if that's Sony's decision. AMD can eat me.
Edit - Then again, it's not like I'll be fixing up my consoles myself, so this doesn't really matter. Out of the box things will generally work.
Lost a post but we are forgetting that new challengers are entering the market.Apple has a TV with web and docking enabled. This could doom Nintendo in a one two punch as mobile gaming is the most open and Free frontier and at this point 3rd parties seem to permenantly be scarred by nintendo andeven Iwata (the diplomatic one) can't shut up about iOS not being for them.
The issue is that iOS coming home or something else changing the market so it takes down Nintendo is often seen as some of gaming journalism big chickens coming home to roost matter. just punishment as the casuals flee us and sony and MS continue or renew core experiences.
Me. IF the WiiU fails for whatever reasons you've feverdreamed Nintendo deserves to What's to stop MS and Sony just abandoning the dedicated gaming scene immediately (no next gen consoles) Or just out and out joining up with the market themobile app-revolution system singularity will MaKE
Its not like they showed some magical guts in the face of motion controls, the3D fad, etc
If the market proves unable to support one 'barely' next gen console WHY would they risk their own?
Especially as apple life expands its side entertainment to casual expectations andreasonable core/indie/original expectations
Maybe if Nintendo makes an app that makes you able to use your pads and such with the WiiU. Thus becoming more universally friendly. Maybe.
But with j-gaming driven by handhelds any NA Nintendo elmination will, unless the Vita's half assed I'm a phone you can justify my expense really imitation works...We may live to regret our Rorschach moment.
Ah, that's more than I expected. So it sounds like Nintendo & Sony are both comparable as far as the amount of game development they do and oversee. Whereas Microsoft does very little in-house development although they act as the publisher on a lot of XBLA titles from smaller developers.
Zeboyd Games Development Blog
Steam ID : rwb36, Twitter : Werezompire, Facebook : Zeboyd Games
There are three major factors that are as of yet unknown: specs, price and line-up at the launch window. Without these, there really isn't anything, at least nothing substantiated, we can speculate on whether people would want it or not, the least of machines that aren't even finalized yet. None. Lifetime sales? Are you fucking kidding me? This is like putting your finger in your mouth, then use it to predict earthquakes.
What we can reflect on are the current market and financial positions of the companies.
Nintendo is what you might call risk averse. It has a market value of $85 billion and total assets worth ¥1.6 trillion ($20.6 billion) as of March 2011 with little or no debt and their cash reserves are about $11 billion. They are forecasting an annual loss of 20 billion yen ($263 million) for financial year ending March 2012. The projected loss is about 2.4% of their cash reserves, so it's not a huge loss. Yet they aren't using their liquidity to the fullest to invest in bigger payouts. It's not that they don't like money (they love it in fact); it's that their line of business is focused on one single market. It's where their expertise lies and precisely why they don't have other divisions to soak up financial hits like Sony and Microsoft have. However, they have so much cash in reserve that they can make strategic decisions on the fly, like lowering the 3DS price worldwide by $80. Iwata has stated he won't make the same mistake again with the Wii U. He seems like an intelligent bloke.
Sony on the other hand has more debt than cash, so their leeway is more restricted in terms of strategic intervention. They have cash, but they can't really run in more sizable debt without financial repercussions and while the PS3 is doing fine now by making actual profit, as a whole it still caused the biggest loss in the history of SCEI. The TV division is doing terribad, and the mobile phone division isn't doing so hot either (which is why it's baffling Sony is going to acquire Ericsson and make it a wholly owned subsidiary), so they can't really afford to do any more major fuckups. Again, Sony has to respect their competitors and customers and most definitely not unleash another $599 upon the world again. While the summer of 2006 created hilarious memes (RIIIIIDGE RACER), they were digging their own graves to expect the general public to swallow this price point. No matter how high tech your device is, it's never going to reach mass market if it's not affordable. Lessons learned. Hopefully.
The 360, while doing spectacular in the US and the UK, and actually posting huge profits, is doing moderate to downright awful in other territories. I wouldn't be surprised if they'd abandon the Japanese market or at least not throw money at Japanese companies to develop for their platform. More likely is that they're going to use Kinect to convince the Japanese public that their product is worth having in their household. Japan still accounts for a big slice of the global market. You can't really be the market leader if you're abandoning Japan and Microsoft has a better chance now than both their previous endeavors (seriously make the damn thing smaller and for god's sake fix the loud fans). If they can't pull it off and gain a foothold, they are never going to be the grand poobah. Which is not going to be an easy task, since the Japanese are crazy about portable devices. Whoever is predicting the death of dedicated handheld gaming devices? Ha! As always, the 360 720 Next whatever the crap they're going to come up with, is going to sell bananas in the USA. America, fuck yeah!
I just want to have something we can link when somebody says "I knew this was going to happen, I've been saying it for ages!"
A good time to haul it out again would be right after this E3, depending on how much MS and Sony let on...
I cannot imagine Kinect ever being popular in Japan, land of the tiniest domiciles.
EarlyNovember, about damned near everyone.
Mainly because dedicated handheld anything was becoming outsold by the iphone and you can get one for third the price of a 3DS just sign the what your household was going to owe anyway contract Presto.
Next. Its GREAT for Japan that games and devices designed and served and supported for them will continue to enjoy that support. What about everyone else? Especially as the driving saviors of the handheld market continue not come to America etc. This is with nintendo promising no ios migration
Now, I'm not holding my breath on that. But its meaningful that the markets are so divisive and almost tearing attention apart at large.
Now for home consoles. We can speculate on theWiiU at least what isannounced what it needs to do (online, be affordable/competitive with the market especially watch out forthe new apple home ent system cloud pushes tablets and general recession)
Off of that Sony and MS's responses to likely performance plus current policies.
Right now no one wants to let they're console look old in face of the WiiU coming down. but everything screams wait and see. And with the 3DS's rough year there is still sense of needing to[ be sure the market is reliable rather than Nintendo avoiding a total disaster. There is still no proper response to the newgaming market which is posedto and is crushing previous paradigms. MS could jump ship to a competing with Apple stance somehow. maybe perfecting and expanding the Kinect further as a device of technical renaissance (stealing apples old image of electronics for the technically educated and creatively expressive).But Sony as a whole has issues and Nintendo may really have lost thecasual market it created with most of its widest franchises being if not japan-only heavily slanted in japanese appeal and market concerns.
Add to that people are sure the casual market won't see a product for them in the WiiU. with each new annoucement and and shinier implementations of their own innovation and a pale certainty the Wii will be "abandoned" with the WiiU and 3rd parties STILL hating Nintendo even if able to quick and dirty port to them....
Nintendo's pad has to really hit it with developers AND casuals. Gaming journalism and community but for the nintendo diehards seem just irrationally, instinctively dismissive ofthe company. Some feeling betrayed
Nowhere near as big as it used to be. The best selling game in Japan for 2010 sold 4.5 million (Pokemon White+Black). The best selling game in the US for 2010 sold over 12 million (CoD:Black Ops). There were only 8 games in Japan in 2010 that sold over 1 million copies whereas there were far more than that in the US. Also the PC market basically doesn't exist there outside of the free to play MMORPG-type stuff. Case in point, the developers of Recettear and Chantelise have made far more money from the US version of their games than they ever did in Japan simply because the PC digital marketplace & demand just isn't really there.
Japan matters far more in this industry from a development perspective (lots of big popular companies there) than from a customer perspective.
Zeboyd Games Development Blog
Steam ID : rwb36, Twitter : Werezompire, Facebook : Zeboyd Games
Nintendo will fail to create a compelling online experience or any way to decouple digital purchases from the hardware they were made on, further alienating the core gamer base. No one will care about the promised glut of 360 ports (if they even happen.) Mario Galaxy U will be totally sweet though.
Xbox 720: will be heavily branded as an all-in-one media center. includes a bluray drive. (hopefully) a 200gb base model, 1tb 'pro' model. all units will ship with kinect 2.0. should have full 360 backwards-compatibility.
PS4: I guess this is something that will exist.
3DS: It prints money, at a moderate pace
Vita: I guess this is something that exists
This would be a bold prediction, since they've already announced this is going to happen:
The exact implementation could end up shoddy - I wouldn't necessarily assume it'll be like Android and let you log in on any device and download anything you purchased - but they are taking steps to decouple purchases from the hardware.
To compare, Sony has:
Sony London (three dev teams)
Sony Japan Studios (three dev teams, including Team Ico and Team Siren)
Sony Santa Monica (two dev teams with a variety of smaller teams helping out with other games)
Naughty Dog (two dev teams)
Guerrilla Games (two dev teams)
Media Molecule
Sony Liverpool
Evolution Studios
Polyphony Digital
Sucker Punch
Sony Cambridge
Sony Bend
Sony San Diego
Zipper Interactive
BigBig Studios
The size of the teams in each company gets all very weird when you take into consideration what they're working on (PS3 games generally require way more staff than Wii games, etc.) but I'm pretty sure Sony's first party studios are quite comfortably much larger than Nintendo's.
Not anymore. All three GPUs next gen will be AMD.
Anyway, my prediction of next gen is that it'll basically be the same as this gen.
Nintendo is popular with the casual market and first party games will sell like crazy. But while third party support will be better, they still won't be able to attract the hardcore market all the publishers love because their online sucks and Sony/Microsoft's offerings (in terms of games) are much better for that market.
Sony will price their system a lot better, bring PSN to the standard they're setting with the Vita (better than current XBL but still worse than Steam) and come up with some great first party titles. Despite this, they'll continue to do relatively poorly in the US but make up for that in Europe (and on a lesser note, Japan).
Both companies will also fail to keep their three main divisions in sync, leading to idiotic region bullshit like always.
As for Microsoft, I really can't see them suddenly turning around and being super dudebro again. I think they're far more likely to position their next system at the same market as Nintendo. Not that they'll completely neglect the hardcore market, they'll probably make a couple of additions to XBL and still have Halo, Forza and Gears, I just don't think they'll make the hardcore their main focus like they did last time around. So I think the main selling point will be an improved Kinect (with better camera, faster port, better processor, etc.) bundled in with every system. Problem is, I really can't see it beating the WiiU. That audience will likely be far more interested in the new WiiU controller (given the iPad craze, even though the WiiU has an inferior screen) that can play Mario Kart than an upgrade to something they've already got (or don't want) that can play Dance Central 4. And while Microsoft do have all the momentum in the US at the moment, they've also got a handicap of being really weak in non-English countries. So ultimately, I think they'll end up in the same spot they are now, battling with Sony for second place.
But who knows, we'll see.
Vita: It's been almost a foreign concept to me to consider that the Vita's Launch Line-up isn't that great (since I've only been looking at the NA launch list of 25 games with 10 more in the window), but I'd be willing to be that the fairly weak-ish (not as many games as we're going to get and the highest profile one is certainly more Western focused in Uncharted) launch line-up combined with the fact that the 3DS exists and is being sold next to it is the reason for the slow start. (where the 3DS didn't have that by comparison) I'm not going to get into the tactics or anything involved with that, just suggesting it's a reason that's contributing to the launch as it is.
I'd expect at least a noticeable bump in February when Gravity Daze/Rush comes out over there with a fairly steady growth before and after that. Aside from that, February should probably be a good month for the Vita all-around, considering that's the NA launch which should do fairly well. People griped about the 3DS' $250 pricepoint, but many, many people happily paid it, as many will for the Vita as well. Likely not the same people but people nonetheless.
I'm going to go a little further out than I need to and bring up the games, specifically concrete word on some of the things that have been teased. I don't know when I expect Bioshock for the Vita to get officially announced (as in with footage and such), but I wouldn't be surprised if it happens at E3. I imagine that's going to be Sony's main focus there, which isn't honestly going too much out of the box. For that reason, I don't figure on word of a PS4 until 2013, maybe as early as the start of 2013 like the Vita was (Here's this thing, no name even though it's going to be called the Playstation 4, check out all the shit it does, peace out) but I haven't a damn clue on release date.
Resistance, Killzone and LittleBigPlanet for the Vita should probably pop up (not necessarily in that order) towards the middle of the year leading into the holiday season, where KojiPro will probably dump the Vita version of MGS HD Collection in there as well. Depending on when Zone of the Enders Collection comes out for consoles, it's entirely possible it'll drop at the same time on the Vita, but I'm not sure how good an idea that'd be unless there's some sort of deal with getting both versions to take advantage of Transfarring (and, well, having Zone of the Enders 2 on your PS3 and Vita). Sega's likely going to put something Yakuza (Whether it's a new Black Panther, a port of one of the main games, or an update of the existing Black Panther games) on the Vita in 2012 but if we get it before the end of the year, I'll be surprised. Likewise with a new Phantasy Star Portable (likely called Phantasy Star Victory or something similar to take advantage of PSV) There'll be plenty of other game announcements, some for things that'll come out before the end of the year, some mid-way through 2013, but what I mentioned is more or less what I'm concerned with (read: Thought about for more than five minutes).
720: I don't know if I expect MS to announce the 720 in 2012 or not really, but when they do, I really expect Kinect integration right out of the box. Not the same Kinect, obviously, but one that fills in a lot of the technical gaps people have complained about - Namely the space required and the not-quite-there-yet level of detection. For the former, there's already a third-party accessory that does a lot to reduce the space needed for the Kinect, I believe it's called the Nyko Zoom or something. I don't know if there's a loss involved with that in terms of how it works or anything, but I figure it'll get ironed out. For the latter, I'm hoping for finger recognition at least with the next Kinect, but I'm not sure if it'll be touted and not deliver well enough or actually work well. Mostly because I don't know how difficult it is to actually do.
As far as SKUs go, I could definitely see them throwing out two at launch, but I'm not going to go so far as to suggest the rumors have been accurate and we'll see a streambox and a 'hardcores with disc drive' box. Perhaps a few less features on one to make it seem more affordable (as MS has done a lot this generation) like a smaller HDD, maybe the PS3 route where it'll look less attractive or something of that sort, but I don't see them jumping out of the gate with something as divisive as rumors are suggesting. With the Kinect+ right out of the box, I don't know what to suggest people will do with their old Kinects, but I don't expect them to acknowledge it beyond saying "You need this new Kinect which we are including with every console".
Wii U: I'm kind of in RainbowDespair's camp here re: the Wii-U in that I wouldn't be surprised if it comes out and doesn't set the world on fire like Nintendo expects. I'm not sure I'm willing to place bets on Sony-levels of expectations vs. reality to mirror this generation, but I can't imagine the device costing what people expect a Nintendo product to cost (much like the 3DS didn't) and I can imagine Nintendo eating a bit more humble pie for it. I wouldn't be willing to suggest a quickie price cut for the Wii U though, unless Microsoft announces the 720 really competitively and Nintendo needs to garner a little support (like the 3DS vs. Vita situation).
And really, with the Wii U, I'm not sure just -what- to expect from that controller they've shown off and what the alternative is. I'm sure you're not expected to just buy more Wiimotes/Chucks and/or just use the ones from your Wii, but I don't know if that means Nintendo is going to go all out and make something different but the same for the official 'secondary' controllers (since, as far as we know, you'll only be able to use one tablet controller per Console and I can't see Nintendo actively giving up on the couch co-op friendly style they've built up this gen. It's just kind of a schizophrenic message at this point: The tablet for the Wii U has fantastic possibilities for Single-player games (and there are certainly ways to extend this to multi-player, though it sort of shoehorns one person into being 'the guy' which might be a little off-putting), but the Wii was rarely seen as a single-player system from what I can tell (despite all the good single-player games that came out for it) so, again, to just sort of throw away the MP base they've built up would just be baffling. I guess I just need to see how they go about that when there's more information out.
I'm not sure what 'megaton' first-party game they'll drop at E3 for the Wii U (Top runners obviously being Smash Bros., a Mario Game, or a Zelda game, but pretty much any first-party title would likely get as much hype), but I'm definitely expecting that, because showing off games that are going to be well-out and over with by the time it comes out (Darksiders 2, Arkham City, etc.) isn't going to cut it next year. On top of that, some more concrete details about the system itself would be great. Probably not a release date, but maybe a vague "2013" suggestion or announced window. If I had to guess, probably a mid-year launch for it to build up some steam before the Holiday season.
PS4: This one's kind of the hardest here since I honestly have no idea what the hell to think. I've heard rumors that there's already PS4 hardware out there being worked with by 'big' developers, but with the Vita going to be Sony's 'big thing' next year, I can't see them focusing on anything but the Vita and the PS3 (which means the PSP is likely going to be 'officially' dead next year outside of talking about the PS Store, since the Vita's launch and BC will likely spur more developers to put up games they've been holding back Squeenix. Unfortunately, some PSP games just -can't- be handled via passport or DD unless developers really kick their legal divisions into gear to make it happen.) So like I said earlier with the Vita section, I imagine the earliest we'll officially hear about the PS4 will be at the Playstation Meeting in 2013 (end of January if they do it like they did the NGP/Vita) if even then.
As far as what they're going to do with it, I don't see them eschewing Move for something more Kinect-like, but I wouldn't put it past them to try and have something that incorporates both in it as a new thing. (Go with Move+ like Kinect+ above) I'd like to say that a bigger focus on using two wands will be implemented, seeing as that does quite a bit to enhance the games it's used in, but unless they redesign the Navigation controller to A) Be more of a Move Wand (with, y'know, motion sensors and stuff) and
tl;dr: Vita's going to be a slow-grower that'll hit its stride early next year with new announcements peppering the entirety of 2012. E3 for Sony is going to be Vita Vita Vita PS3 Vita Move(barely) Vita Vita. First-party and big-names to get released mid-to-holiday season. 720 might be the second console to come out, (racing the Wii U) going to have Kinect+ right out of the box, but not really divisive SKUs. Wii U needs more information and E3 will be the best outlet for that. Really need to find out what's going on with the Tablet controller and the 'other' controllers (because there has to be 'others'). I'm expecting a 2013 release based on absolutely nothing. PS4's going to release last, possibly even announce last, -might- focus on making Motion Gaming more 'immersive' through an improved Move setup (possibly two wands at all times, hopefully with a navigation stick on something, likely Kinect-style camera on top of it to track your body while you play. 3D is obvious.) or might just be like "Hey, meet the new thing, same as the old thing but better". Dunno yet.
I might be (probably am) talking out of my ass for a lot of this stuff as I am super-terrible with predictions, but hey, I wanted to give it a shot. Worst thing that can happen is I'm wrong and look like a dumb goose, yeah? (A civil dumb goose though!)
Edit: Also, something I wanted to say and forgot: Absolutely no way will there -not- be a Monster Hunter game on the Vita in short-order. MH4 is likely a timed exclusive or a version of MH4 will quickly (sometime around release maybe) be announced for the Vita. Even if it's just like "Monster Hunter 4: Special" with an extra couple of levels or something.
The current lineup of games isn't honestly that great and the future lineup doesn't seem to have any real heavy hitters just yet. On the other hand, what is there is enough to at least keep sales steady until something is announced. Mario as a brand is an extraordinary sales point.
Vita: Weak launch is still far superior to what the psp did, and the psp eventually did actually very well for itself. Sony at least took responsibility for their poor handling on the psp. They basically threw it out the door with barely any software support and left the sdk rotting for several years. If sony manages to be more supportive of developers and work quickly to fix sdk issues and snag some licenses that really moved the psp (Hello MonHun) I think they could do fairly well. On that note, with how well a lot of Atlus games have done both in Japan and in the US (Catherine sold amazingly well, Persona 3/4 also did really good for jrpgs.) I think the way Sony has supported them could be a really good way for them to bring in better numbers on the system. Id have to see how the p4 rerelease and p4 fighting game do, but the general vibe both here and in Japan seems pretty positive. Something like Love+ or Idolmaster should also be something Sony should look into (They did fairly well with Project Diva and I believe they still have rights to make more of them.)
I think ps4 will be delayed both because Sony is generally reactionary and also because the ps3 only recently really got traction. The system did horribly for those first several years. Also if they have any hopes of netting customer support I think they need to hold off on the console til they have shown proper support of the vita. I wouldn't be surprised to see the two very tightly integrated once it comes out. Even so far as letting you sync the vita as a controller to allow for a wiiu like experience. (Also to move more vita units in the future once its seen a price cut/revision.) PSmove will hopefully be abandoned as its just not a good direction to go in.
As for mobile gaming as someone else brought up: Phones are phones are phones. While there are some fun games, there have been no core audience games. Unless the market drastically shifts away from games meant to either be played for 2 minutes and thrown away or microsansaction fests, I just don't see the core gaming audience suddenly abandoning ship. Its definitely a different demographic (and the rather hefty sales numbers of the 3ds and vita show that people still want an actual gaming device.)
I do think mobile gaming will start seeing development/price creep as casual players slowly become less thrilled with small tech demos and start desiring actual games. Much like core consoles, handhelds and later indie games. All these markets started off cheap and simple but have eventually all grown into rather complex, expensive markets. (Even the 'simplest' indie games these days are still pretty massive compared to just two years ago.)
The size and variety of the mobile market will actually probably force the market along the evolutionary line faster than previous gaming types. I wouldn't be surprised to start seeing really expensive/fleshed out games like Infinite blade 2 becoming more of the norm instead of fruit ninja within the year, maybe two.
they need to do more than take steps, they're already miles behind. afaic, on day one I should be able to hook up my wiiu, log into my Nintendo account and start downloading all the content I own on my wii. anything less is a joke.
-will run the original kinect so as to reduce cost, with some possible improvements to the tech built into the machine
-will suffer on the software side due to 343 handling Halo and Gears basically 'ending' (though we know atleast one more game is coming)
-will drastically improve social tools, with integration into facebook/twitter out of the box. all apps from 360 i can see making that jump too, so they can be run in the background.
-fully backwards compatible: BECAUSE IT SHOULD BE
-two SKUs again: one cheap, with no kinect, and smaller HDD. less badass color scheme. one pricey, with a kinect, huge HDD, and sweet flames on the side that make it go faster
-will look a shit ton more like windows 7, which is saying something because it looks like it right now
Obviously, you can't compare the Japanese market with the US market as the latter is just bigger and not by a little.
Also, sales numbers in units =/= sales numbers in cold hard cash. It'd be like saying Angry Birds made more money than Pokémon because it sold more units (fun fact: Pokémon Black/White has made more money than the entire Apple app store). I'm aware you haven't specifically said that, and Japan mattering from a development perspective is certainly true, but that's precisely why a lot of Japan-based companies are focused and will still continue to focus on their homeland. The yen is strong and the games are expensive there. That's why, for a Japanese company, you can't equal 1 sale in Japan with 1 sale in the US. Ignoring distribution, localization and marketing costs, a sale in Japan is more valuable than a sale in the US. Coupled that with the fact that Japanese games are waning in popularity in the West (JRPGs et al) and you have a situation I described above.
The Japanese market matters for Japanese consumers (with a population of 127 million last I checked) and that's why Microsoft will never be the market leader if they can't gain a foothold in Japan.