Sony will price their system a lot better, bring PSN to the standard they're setting with the Vita (better than current XBL but still worse than Steam)
OK I've been looking into the Vita but can't see how this is true, care to enlighten me?
Can't see anything the Vita can do which XBL can't, aside from links to websites and ability to grab and post screenshots, while 360 still has plenty of features missing from PSN, as far as I am aware.
I'm only going to comment on a few since the console market doesn't really interest me as much as the handhelds right now. I have more than enough backlog on the 360 so I don't see a WiiU, PS4, or XB720 pulling me in for at least 2 or 3 years.
On handhelds - the 3DS will outpace the DS in sales and have a huge year. The 3DS library is already better than the DSs was during its first year and if Nintendo can get a true Pokemon game out for it this year you'll see sales go absolutely ape nuts. I don't think we'll see a hardware revision this year though - I think Nintendo realizes the DS/DSLite/DSi/DSiXL got confusing and may have muddied the water for the 3DS launch.
The Vita will be hacked quickly and have similar piracy issues as the PSP. It will do exactly like the PSP did - sell ok at first to a hardcore crowd and then sales will drop. It will get a better library than the PSP though based on the ease of console ports. Every analyst will say Sony should drop the price, but they won't until maybe close to Christmas.
I don't think the Vita will be hacked quickly. Software DRM is easy to hack but the Vita has a few forms of hardware DRM which should make things much more difficult. Not saying that it won't get hacked eventually, but I think it'll take a while before it gets hacked to the point that people are playing pirated Vita software on it.
It'll have to take the form it did on DS (flash card with PC-accessible memory) since there's no easy reader for their media this time around.
It has a USB port, correct? I would assume they still will have some form of "plug into your pc and drag/drop music and video" in there. I never used a Duo reader to hack my PSP, just a single USB cord.
Oh, does it? Ignore me then. I figured with the kind of security they're using with the new memory cards they wouldn't let you simply hook it up to a PC.
You can hook the Vita to a PC but you can currently only transfer things to the Vita through proprietary software, you can't just drag and drop.
Those are simple to crack, unfortunately.
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HenroidMexican kicked from Immigration ThreadCentrism is Racism :3Registered Userregular
Can I shift gears to developers / publishers?
I'm pretty sure Konami is going to show us two things at E3 2012 (their only time to really do anything): Lords of Shadow 2, and another compliation / HD remake or whatever. I dunno what they'd do for the latter, probably slap already-made Castlevania games together. We're not going to get another Metroidvania, let alone any handheld Castlevanias, and I'm just going to hate the fuck out of them.
Capcom is going to more Mega Man for iOS, in some way. And it'll be the only way we get anything Mega Man from them. And they will be hated.
I have to wonder if Square will continue to slide downhill. I really can't imagine much they could announce that would really bring back the mainstream appeal they had back in the FFVII/VIII or even Kingdom Hearts 1/2 days.
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HenroidMexican kicked from Immigration ThreadCentrism is Racism :3Registered Userregular
I have to wonder if Square will continue to slide downhill. I really can't imagine much they could announce that would really bring back the mainstream appeal they had back in the FFVII/VIII or even Kingdom Hearts 1/2 days.
That's a good thing to consider. Square's big ol' franchise is losing heat fast, so are they gonna be able to bring it back? The whole thing has been built on "omg graphix" more than anything else. Maybe they will decide to knock that off. But I doubt it. I think Square is going to promote the MMO more, but have nothing FF for the year. It's going to be all other titles.
The Japanese market matters for Japanese consumers (with a population of 127 million last I checked) and that's why Microsoft will never be the market leader if they can't gain a foothold in Japan.
you had me until here. Look MS isn't not doing anything wrong. The J Market is against them. They will literally shell out R&D money just to have a no export for the US release come to the PS3 and get adopted and their Xbox version called a beta.
Think about that.
Otherwise, yeah, major problem. J-development is handheld focused and the handheld leaders for the J market have barely no Western presence. the Western handheld leaders ARE those trivial time wasters that anyone could just pick up and play. We need to seriously get our heads out of our asses that "we" are the core demographic that lead and drive sales. We haven't been for some time. It matters more to have the next Angry Birds, Brain Age, maybe Layton than anything we consider for us.
Monster hunter four and the promise of it and Dragon Quest is what saved the 3DS with holiday sales securing a possible NA future. The issue is that without the time wasting gunk and the mobile market competition what the hell can Nintendo do, it won't lose the Japanese market, but we western gamers are already losing it and Western Developers don't want to go to Nintendo if multiplatform apps and Steam are available.
So for those who don't know: the Vita just had its second week on sale in Japan. It sold 72k, worse than every other major platform there. The 3DS sold 482k, almost five times as much as the second place platform.
Contrary to how it may seem, this is not the primary thrust of this thread!
Right now, PA's industry thread, other forums and even some major news sites have been quick to get in on some Vita gloom and doom based on this info. Some are talking like poor Vita sales have been a given for a long time now, writing's been on the wall, most sane people expected this outcome.
this is mainly motivated by the mobile gaming invasion creating a strong belief the handheld market pie has be carved up good by Rovio and them.
To which I thought, did we really? How long have we expected it to do poorly, and is this rough start in Japan really indicative of long term struggles?
It was with the 3DS so.. yes
Which made me think of the next generation of home consoles. How do we expect them to do? Will the past repeat itself? Heck, which past?
Honestly I expect the nextbox to rebrand itself in an effort to compete with "Apple Life" though will include the Kinect and other media entertainment features and ditch its slight immature college image if only to follow and support its original consumer base many of whom will have spouses or be part of households and need to justify the higher expense. This will replicate the PS2 craze more than anything, unless the WiiU is surprise hit but with the hardcore especially smarting from their treatment in Generation Wii and 3rd parties STILL not giving good support, and the indie market being snubbed (well iOS where alot of the fun innovation is, there or Steam) expect a stumble and somekind of honest capitulation, not just a price drop, some sort of shaming before the Western market. Especially to deal with the growing issues of japan-backlash and estrangement. I mean, seriously the DS is being floated to the masses by "worst parts of a MMORPGer" Monster Hunter and a dating sim that creates virtual Mii babies of you and your virtual perfect girl. Those kind of differences go beyond just openmindedness vs. closedmindedness and straight to just cultural divides and hungers
- How many millions will the 3DS/Vita/WiiU/PS4/720 sell in each major territory? What will the ratio between them look like in five years? If you think it's too early to call, feel free to define a specific scenario - if PS4 regains exclusives the PS3 lost, if WiiU improves its online capabilities, etc.
I expect the 3DS, minus some tremendous fuck up, is secure, between having the two MONEY franchises for Japan it won't vanish but it may become a Japanese machine while PSV, just by multifunction and fitting mroe the western ideal is luxury NA item. But handhelds need a comprehensive strategy for the new iOS market. Nintendo has spat on those folks faces already.
I can't give numbers but it really does hang on who will BUY the WiiU not just who its sold to. Every gaming guru and most online gossip is sold on this fantasy of the revenge of the hardcore against Nintendo. That Nintendo must renew our succor or something. It doesn't help that unless they can make the Wii U
nonproprietary or run multiple tablets they'll have dumbed down version of what Apple plans to offer mid 2012 and MS and Sony are preparing to offer or can offer in response to the market.
- How many SKUs will each console have, and what will they look like? Do you think anyone will go discless, or court casuals and hardcore separately?
If movies aren't going discless don't expect consoles to, though expect, until a severe backlash, more and more cheap DLC nickle and diming. Now eventually people will be okay with streaming but that will mean actual ownership by the consumer and accountability of the 'service provider" (right now this stance exists only to dictate increasing terms of control and demands of the consumder) of their not in their house held items.
I suspect PC/Amazon/Steam will be more leading the way there, not the "big 3."
I suspect the hardcore market will stop being catered to as stringently. That more or less came about due to the unique adolescent/aging of gamers and the content of the industry along with a response to the more general audience aesthetics of the Wii. As the General audience aesthetic is now adopted, in distinct flavors, by all of them hardcore services and products will be there but expect overall an image of household electronic entertainment device NOT radically hardcore toy. Gamers are just too old or even if young of the temperment to see that's a little reaching by now.
Mind you driving will always be marketing to adolescents, driving games are about fulfilling adolescent frustrations (I want a sweet ass ride like I saw on TV/movies/whatever) but we're distinctly realizing gamers are hobbyist enthusers with lives, careers, and families. As prices go up marketing and emphasizing the family or integrate life benefits and how our device fits into them will be more of thing.
WiiU should allow itself to be more... upgradeable, able to do something so you can later add more and more tablets and features. I suspect though that will be more the design philosophy for the Nextbox. MS was succesful in getting use to accept multiple SKUs at once on consoles with widely different performance depending on your personal investment and capacity. Expect them to capitalize on that good will. There will be a cheap "Roku" like alternative whare you upgrade the box but keep, your Kinect and other peripherals to be upgraded apiece later. A frugal alternative but the standard will have Kinect+ decent harddrive.
BC will be a phase out depending on convenience. If you can resell on downloads and software BC isn't worth it than make Hardware BC a special feature much as it became on the PS3. That will be the Premium Nextbox
I'd like to imagine a less grabby Xbox Live (pay more for the HSI you're already paying for!) but why would they kill the goose that lays their golden eggs? Especially if they can translate that into SECURING the internet and such for the user most of all. This is where MS will be ahead on the streaming and other stuff Western Market and US style. Japan will likely have some other not!steam way the US will resent the mere existence of and Japan will, as typical, presume standard or not factor as an issue in other markets unless they make their own new infrastructure.
The PSN will be shifting more of its free features to premium service, it will start with a security subscription but just you wait.
The WiiU just might be able to get away with midlife tech-upgrading, WE scoff at the name but the Wii is a reliable name in gaming, fun, and decent if simple hardware they phased out BC without a fuss and we've taken TWO remote revisions and other peripherals with gripiing but we've taken them. As it was feature of this generation (and without doom and gloom as well) and we know they're going to put out a 3DS revision proper (circle pad's necessity to rebrand the hardware as viable in its own primary market) expect Nintendo to be acting more disturbingly like the competition, of at least this generation than.. well themselves.
The main problem is Sony is experiencing issues all around. I think 3D would be slow grow seeding thing. Especially as 3D goes from godline, to gimmick, to merely an encumbent but not necessarily uniquely critical feature overall. Think of it like the old sound systems with pre-HDTVs. Some folks at the super duper surround sound setups, others were basic but all prefered certain inputs and sizes and dimensions and features, at least stripped to standard.
- How many handheld revisions will we see, when will we see them, and what form will they take?
Three overall for the 3DS, the 3DS lite (with dual analog) the 3DS 2.0 (Dual analog and better batterylife fixing the finickness of three d, maybe optional, not critical specs that are cheap over covers for those with glasses and varying vision issues, as the elderly are a big DS/Nintendo demographic I hope they are on this or partner or aid who gets on this, the sooner they combat the 3DS is neuralyzer in hiding the better)
The final revision, is dream version that is somewhere between pad and handheld and maybe add a phone or at least two way or Skype into there.
PSV there will just be refinements of now. mergers of game phones, 4-5g upgrades. And at least one "all DLC/digital" one that, if they are smart, will hook into ANYTHING to handle DLs and backups.
The iphone/android market is utterly beyond me, but we're headed for that big system maker and heartbreaker super app that will destory the gaming community. Pokemon, Capcom, Squeenix, and lord knows how many indies with great variations but not enough presence in the established market are already producing iOS material. Lets say Inafune's pirate penguin game becomes a hit and people adopt it in droves as a backlash against the abandonment by Capcom and the 3DS or just its sheer availability. Bang. devoured market. At this point Iwata needs to be rotated out and Reggie becomes the new more international face of Nintendo (well that of the Rainfall goodwill annointed NoE executive, who's name I don't know) and they can quickly me too and catch up with the eshop. In mainstream terms it will be too little too late and the Western handheld market dries up for Nintendo save for the elite douche symbol that will be the PSV.
The DS worked for its general appeal, ease of carriage and use, and nondedicated style. It will lose that as iphone just circulate and circulate, particularly if Nintendo insists on attacking the secondary market with SOPA and Apple will see no reason not to.
- What sort of controllers should we expect to see standard with each console, and how will this affect mass market appeal?
Kinect will be captiable or built in with the Nextbox. It will NOT come with a controller unless specifically getting the game package variation, then the controller will definitely break ties with the Xbox look. IF possible wireless xbox controllers will be compatible but it will be treated as it this is just as EVERY controller that's not proprietary could be.
PS4, a new revision of the dual shock (why change now?) Maybe something closer to a move or regular controller hybrid.
We've seen the WiiU controller guys. Its only "surprise" might be its ability to support two of them though it will incure three at a time Gamecube lag. Using it will be critcal. A multi-touch or stronger pad MAYBE ,insanely, universal pad applicability will develop on the thing if Nintendo sees the rough patch ahead and decides to divert the general electronics market as to have Iwata be slattered in butterscotch and coolwhip and do the rump hump to the camera to satify mainstream gamer's sadistic urges only to rejct it as too gay or missed it and they didn't stream to my PSVita or some contrarian reason. Making the WiiU a unique but not Nintendo exclusive piece with purchase of a nintendo application or something might be the only crazy swerve they need.
Of course expect MS to steal that idea first but from Apple who'll have implemented it with their TV and their their Any Games that Let Us box.
If Apple really wants to undermine not just outsell with a more powerful market they'll put out the pandorica. Put damned near ANYTHING you want into the damned thing system wise, just hook them up and you get them to work together. They can sell it on unifying complex peripherals, starting with Blue-Rays, Satellite/Cable, box, and other shit. A super next gen Roku.
Expect, though, due to ports, for the Classic Controller Pro to be sold out when the points come a calling.
- Who's going to gain exclusives, who's going to lose exclusives, and how will this drive or hurt hardware sales?
Until the next hardware no one. expect plenty of temptation to jump ship ESPECIALYL in the handheld market. Many Western handhled and indies won't even get on. They like their own freedom and born, many times, out of modders they'll feel animosity to Nintendo's policies and arbitrary requirements. PSV will be an incidental support thing because of the PSN.
Mainly though I expect First party and 2nd party to stay where they are. Ubisoft, being the rare 3rd party game intown might experience some particular gushing on the WiiU so B&GE2 or 1.5 may show up there as well as new IP as well. At least primarily if it shows promise and success it won't exclude just involve and hopefully make decent use of the tablet and motion controls.
- How will consoles be affected by the rise in popularity for portable devices? How will handhelds be affected by the rise in popularity for smartphones?
I think I touched this already but really this is smartphone's game to call at this point. Unless they descend into clusterfuckedupness the mere advantage of the tech seems poised to bury the old handheld market. It can reasonably play both games at once and it only going to bridge, experiment, and expand more.
- Who is doomed and/or going third party?
Everyone, this is the last or second to lasst generation. Nintendo might get their first, failure means something other than "lets pull back on the games division for a bit and make them part of a multimedia program, if can't reopen just redistribute the assets" that Sony can do.
MS can do it and make it look like that was the plan all along. But while Nintendo is the most directly active against the Apple Life future, they have by far the least capacity to win this. Unless the Skylanders, eCCG thing REALLY takes off then it will recreate a niche but that's going to be among the young who may, for once, be bitten off at the lead to just inherit mom and dad's old kindle/smartphone and the apps for that than get sucked into another collect-athon that's not purely electronic or purely "think you have anyways"
What do you think?
The WiiU's biggest problem is that its offering the equivalent of hot wheels in the market of transformers...no how about this. Pads are very powerful, mobile PERSONAL devices. The ideas of them as fixed attachments to specific area with no other features or independent operation and even limited use in the house is what will kill it. The Tech and what we expect is too established and familiar and Nintendo's entrance too much like making etkch sketches to art classes.
Rumors continue to circulate about Microsoft or Sony releasing a new home console in 2012. Unfortunately, you can apply as much pressure to this thought, but it won't turn into a diamond. The Vita and Wii U will launch in 2012, but that is it.
Both the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 continue to deliver incredible profits to publishers, and given our industry's difficulty in transitioning to new hardware I don't believe Microsoft or Sony are under any pressure to release new platforms.
I would even go so far as to say that I wouldn't even expect any official announcements of new hardware in 2012. Maybe we'll witness some credible rumors, but I wouldn't expect a company driven announcement to be made.
Hm. Makes sense given that the 360 sold a bajillion units and the PS3 outsold the Wii in the US during the month of November. Curious what possibly record-breaking numbers December will bring to these two platforms.
Chen on
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HenroidMexican kicked from Immigration ThreadCentrism is Racism :3Registered Userregular
If publishers are on board with waiting on console generations, it falls in step with MS and Sony wanting a long life-cycle this gen. Sony more or less owes it to people anyway, because that PS3 devkit sounded like a nightmare.
The problem is the WiiU announcment is going to make their consoles look old. they are at the least going to want to look busy or viable enough not be glue material.
*sigh* PCs have literally priced themselves and made themselves too much of a bother for even the above average consumer. You can not just happen to have a PC that runs a game unless its indie stuff (and they will sell on ANYTHING) hell even if it is indie stuff. Sure the signal is out for you to see about upgrading your PC to the current gen but really its getting ever more inconvenient for less and less unique benefit.
The problem is the WiiU announcment is going to make their consoles look old. they are at the least going to want to look busy or viable enough not be glue material.
*sigh* PCs have literally priced themselves and made themselves too much of a bother for even the above average consumer. You can not just happen to have a PC that runs a game unless its indie stuff (and they will sell on ANYTHING) hell even if it is indie stuff. Sure the signal is out for you to see about upgrading your PC to the current gen but really its getting ever more inconvenient for less and less unique benefit.
Pretty sure work has been done, mostly by Intel, to make PC gaming relatively viable and out-of-the-box for average consumers. Yes, not anywhere close to the performance of shit that we as nerds who build our own rigs do, but it's steps above what has been the norm. Still really needs to come to fruition.
I think next generation will largely be a repeat of the current generation.
Sony will have a successful handheld but not as much so as Nintendo's.
Nintendo's console will be the most successful due to its software lineup, hardware, and price.
Microsoft will remain in a solid second and Sony in a solid third.
Nothing wrong with taking the safe guess. It's actually a good thing to put your money on, these guys are trying to maintain brand identity now that video games are a more widely accessed industry.
Sony will price their system a lot better, bring PSN to the standard they're setting with the Vita (better than current XBL but still worse than Steam)
OK I've been looking into the Vita but can't see how this is true, care to enlighten me?
Can't see anything the Vita can do which XBL can't, aside from links to websites and ability to grab and post screenshots, while 360 still has plenty of features missing from PSN, as far as I am aware.
Not played with the thing myself yet, though.
Mostly comes down to multi-tasking. Twitter, Facebook, Skype, watching videos, etc. can all be done mid-game. And the fact that they're letting non-game apps come out for it (and not just stuff they come up with themselves like Netflix or whatever) will only make that much cooler. About the only thing you can't do mid-game is use the internet browser (which XBL doesn't have anyway) but I think they said they were working on that.
What are the XBL features you're talking about? Not just stuff like avatars and Last.fm, right?
It'll have to take the form it did on DS (flash card with PC-accessible memory) since there's no easy reader for their media this time around.
It has a USB port, correct? I would assume they still will have some form of "plug into your pc and drag/drop music and video" in there. I never used a Duo reader to hack my PSP, just a single USB cord.
It has a proprietary port, though obviously it'll have a USB cord to plug into the PS3/PC. But unlike the PSP, which let you drag/drop stuff onto it because it was the client in its relationship with its hosts (PC/PS3), the Vita is itself the host in all relationships. It's in control of all data transfers, so if it doesn't recognise something, it won't let you transfer it.
This is why the Vita will probably get Mac support down the line. The PSP never got that because apparently it was too much work to re-write their transfer pipeline, but since the Vita's handling that now, it should be much easier.
Wiht PCs the major benefit "I already have one and it fulfills a necessary cause in my lifestyle" has been elminated by ever increasing technical complexities and power upgrades and HSI being all but mandatory and other things.
Unless you are a software engineer, video editor, etc, the stats of gaming rig are some prepostrous as... I mean remember how just overviewing the stats of what rig the man bought in texas was enough to indict him on misuse of funds.
That's the reality of PC gaming it made itself for nascent wannabe niche developers and so it is.
The market will always be there, ala motorcycles to cars. But its the height of bitterness and elitism to predict the PC correcting the console flood. Its biggest "win" was Minecraft something that undertaxed systems.
Even if you look past all the publisher bitching about pirating and whatnot, the money right now in PC gaming is in MMO's, F2P ones in particular. They don't require a high end rig, but many of them do require a baseline PC that is above some $300 HP shit you're gonna pick up at Best Buy.
Chocobo is right. It's so cliche and stupid at this point when people act like PC gaming is "done", it's been said for well over a decade, non stop, yet here we are.
PC Gaming isn't going to drastically change the direction of consoles, but pc gaming technology is clearly goign to have major bearing on the performance and internal design of next-gen consoles that are goign to be virtually required to do more than just play games.
Also, I really don't buy into the oft repeated mantra that smartphones and/or Apple are the future of gaming. They're not. Apple is not. They will be a player, obviously, but they're not going to doom consoles, they're not going to doom big budget AAA gaming, they're not going to doom cutting edge graphics and pushing envelopes. Social and casual gaming is not the future. It is simply part of a future that has gaming become what tv, books, movies and music already have. A diverse and mass medium that will no longer be a niche thing that caters to a specific set of people. It's idiotic when people act like it's goign to be one or the other. "ZOMG if smartphones are succesful handhelds are DEAD!". No. VHS didn't kill movie theatres, neither did DVD or Blu-Ray/HD-DVD. TV didn't kill movies, CD's didn't kill the radio (though, radio is doing its damnest to kill itself in the last decade). Things can and will co-exist. This isn't the last generation of consoles, but it will be the last generation of consoles that do just gaming, even though in all reality the current consoles already do more than just gaming.
*sigh* PCs have literally priced themselves and made themselves too much of a bother for even the above average consumer. You can not just happen to have a PC that runs a game unless its indie stuff (and they will sell on ANYTHING) hell even if it is indie stuff. Sure the signal is out for you to see about upgrading your PC to the current gen but really its getting ever more inconvenient for less and less unique benefit.
Not really. Take a cheap computer, add a $100 graphics card and you're set. Requirements for PC games have been going up very slowly since most games are designed to be multiplatform with the 360 & PS3 (which are very old these days).
As I game primarily on PC with a bit of Wii/360 thrown in, I do have to say that the idea that you need to drop thousands of dollars to have a viable gaming PC has not been true for at least about 3 years. The idea may persist, but the idea does not currently reflect reality.
I do my PC gaming on a laptop I bought two years ago for $800. It wasn't top of the line then by a long shot, and while it is starting to have trouble keeping up with some releases (especially PC exclusives), it can play pretty much any multiplatform game at 360-standards or better. Yes, $800 bucks is way more expensive than a console, but it's nothing out of the ordinary for a computer if you planned on getting one anyway. I can only imagine what $800 would get me now.
Of course, this'll probably change once the next generation really ticks over.
As for actual predictions, I'll take some stabs in the dark. The WiiU looks neat enough for me, but Nintendo botched the reveal somewhat and left us with too many unanswered questions, which has allowed the internet rumor mill to go full-retard, for the most part. Right now I suspect the WiiU to mirror the path of the Nintendo 64 - selling respectably well, making plenty of money for Nintendo and pleasing fans, but ignored by some larger third parties, only given passing support by the truly platform-agnostic publishers, and perpetually fighting the image among developers and hardcore consumers alike that it isn't a serious enough console to own exclusively.
The update to the 360 will obviously keep going down the path that system is already on, fulfilling MS's decade-long wet dream of a set-top PC which it can control more rigidly. Kinect integration will be more extensive and sensors available out of the box. Live fees will remain and likely be higher, but MS will partner with more media outlets and perhaps provide a more television-like experience. I expect technology wise, it will only be a modest upgrade - enough to surpass the WiiU but otherwise nothing earth-shattering, thus allowing developers to easily transfer development over without raising costs drastically and allowing MS to make a healthy profit from the console itself while providing BC.
I have no guesses for the PS4. In fact, we're probably not going to hear about it this coming year.
Edit: As an addendum, I'll say that MS may start swinging its dick around a bit more and get more PC developers to go down the path of Epic and mostly stop releasing PC games in favor of their console. I think the direction they're heading in is to try and make the PC gaming environment be similar to the tablet and smart-phone market (MMOs excepted).
Don't shift goalposts. When people talk PC gaming they mean Skyrim and Witcher 2 or something RTSy or what have you. MMOs tend to be a different beast and being able to handle one doesn't guarantee the other.
I din't say PC gaming was dooming itself to anything but extreme nicheness (which is how they like it and don't want to change).
The think about apple is that no other company is a poised for the transition. Nintendo still has yet to put out something that plays DVDs after that being a cornerstone of PS2 success. They still try to act like VGing is an exclusive proprietary thing to control. Now they aren't entirely wrong but the switchover to general media devices and integrated electronics and ARGs mean... well. My iphone, itv, ipad, imac, and all that I've gradually bought into at much more affordable than even launch Wii price that serves a function in my home/life.
Its getting harder to justify $500 plus charges on hardware that you primarily use to play DL titles (awesome DL titles), party games, and stream or disc movies on with the occassional almost worth it AAA hit that serves primarily myself and not me, my spouse, and my kid, hypothetically. Its MUCH more harder to justify that money for complex PC bit, especially with the focus on mobile, networking, and social gaming and such and I can't afford to MMO for ten hours a day anymore and etc.
I even pointed in my predictions MS is set up to just counter or join into the Apple Life idea. Sony ditto. Nintendo can't hope to, they aren't even an electronics company but a game company. People gleeful predict and await Nintendoom (remember the old industry thread title) but suppose this won't with the rapidly racing apart markets and other issues affect their "hardcore" experiences to.
Particularlly as the new competitor, Apple, took up all the new blood Nintendo thought it was recruiting to itself.
The real tough part is that the casual market is for gaming in general not companies or certain things in the specific and old perennial earners are drying up and new replacements, stable ones, are few and far between. Infinity Ward mad Modern Warfare 2, veritable human history event, and was closed down.
Apple having a more stable base with gaming being an aspect and not a focus will sweep aside the market and its design.
I think PC gaming will change to more resemble consoles or the New UrConsole will come before PC gaming "leads" anywhere.
No goalposts are being shifted. PC gaming isn't some narrow set of genres or games. It is all encompassing. You just want to use your own narrow view and definition of what PC gaming it because you think it supports your argument.
And I just don't happen to buy into most anything you're saying. You're just repeating stuff that is parroted by "analysts" for the last couple years and the fact that anyone that has even casually followed the industry threads for the past few years can give any creedence to their speculations, that virtually always prove to be wrong, is moderately funny.
Sony will price their system a lot better, bring PSN to the standard they're setting with the Vita (better than current XBL but still worse than Steam)
OK I've been looking into the Vita but can't see how this is true, care to enlighten me?
Can't see anything the Vita can do which XBL can't, aside from links to websites and ability to grab and post screenshots, while 360 still has plenty of features missing from PSN, as far as I am aware.
Not played with the thing myself yet, though.
Mostly comes down to multi-tasking. Twitter, Facebook, Skype, watching videos, etc. can all be done mid-game. And the fact that they're letting non-game apps come out for it (and not just stuff they come up with themselves like Netflix or whatever) will only make that much cooler. About the only thing you can't do mid-game is use the internet browser (which XBL doesn't have anyway) but I think they said they were working on that.
What are the XBL features you're talking about? Not just stuff like avatars and Last.fm, right?
More the solid party system, cross-game invites and chatting, beacons and that sort of thing. But yeah, Avatars are still pretty cool and services like (especially) LOVEFiLM, Last.fm, YouTube etc are pretty neat, especially with Kinect control. Not to mention the recent TV on demand services.
While multi-tasking is handy, I can still access Twitter, Facebook etc through 360 if I'm desperate to, for whatever reason (never have been after a quick play when they launched) or I can just fire them up on my mobile phone or laptop while gaming on 360, both of which are more preferable tbh.
So yeah, those features are nice and it's good the Vita has them, especially if it wants to be regarded in a similar fashion to a mobile, but they are not anything I'd be wishing to rush to the 360 (or whatever comes next), I was wondering more from a games and multiplayer perspective than that of social networking apps, where I still consider Sony to be behind on everything but the price!
Nintendo is probably the easiest to transition into an Apple Lite type company. They have storefronts already, several dozen developers who could easily transition into mobile (Due to making apps and wii channels and such, which all function similarly to how mobile apps are stored/launched.) and are a multi-facted company that does everything from trading cards to toys to candy.
Seriously, Nintendo isn't going anywhere because they have their bases covered. People just think 'Nintendo the game company' when Nintendo is really a pretty huge multifacted game company.
Also, apple is losing share like woah. If anything Apple will have to start keeping up with Android if it hopes to compete. The only edge Apple has anymore is their closed environment app store but a history has proven, that wont satisfy people, much less developers, forever.
I think the WiiU is going to flop at launch. The wii's launch wasn't great for awhile till it was impossible to find, 3ds launch wasn't great (although it's picking up steam) but I don't know If I see it taking off like the 3ds recently has, and definitely not like the wii did.
My worry is their coming off the wii, even though it sold great, like they did with the N64. You're only going to buy it for Nintendo stuff. I don't think the casuals are going to attach to this like the wii.
I also think microsofts little announcement on the new xbox will have an effect much like the PS2 did to the DC.
I predict Microsoft will take an early lead, that could hurt them like it always hurt sega releasing ahead of Nintendo depending on what Sony does, and WiiU ends up being a distant 3rd.
I hope I'm wrong about Nintendo, and know my first buy is the new xbox and I'll pick up the WiiU for Mario Kart if a good golf game comes out.
(oh, and I own a wii, 3ds, and ds along with a GC, N64, and a SNES, so I hope I'm wrong)
This is what this threads for right? Predictions like this so we can eat our cocks later?
More the solid party system, cross-game invites and chatting, beacons and that sort of thing. But yeah, Avatars are still pretty cool and services like (especially) LOVEFiLM, Last.fm, YouTube etc are pretty neat, especially with Kinect control. Not to mention the recent TV on demand services.
While multi-tasking is handy, I can still access Twitter, Facebook etc through 360 if I'm desperate to, for whatever reason (never have been after a quick play when they launched) or I can just fire them up on my mobile phone or laptop while gaming on 360, both of which are more preferable tbh.
So yeah, those features are nice and it's good the Vita has them, especially if it wants to be regarded in a similar fashion to a mobile, but they are not anything I'd be wishing to rush to the 360 (or whatever comes next), I was wondering more from a games and multiplayer perspective than that of social networking apps, where I still consider Sony to be behind on everything but the price!
Well I didn't mention those three because the Vita already has them. Plus the other big XBL feature the PS3 was lacking, universal custom soundtracks.
There's other stuff I forgot about last time too. Near, which lets you look at people around you, see what games they have, create/take part in challenges for user selected gifts (which I assume are in-game items) and rate your own games. And the Activity feed, which tracks your friends activity within games like Trophies and the like (think of Steam's Blotter). There'll be other things I can't think of at the moment too.
WiiU will be rubbish but parents will buy it for their kids. PS and Xbox will be indistinguishable but everyone who buys one will think theirs is the best.
More the solid party system, cross-game invites and chatting, beacons and that sort of thing. But yeah, Avatars are still pretty cool and services like (especially) LOVEFiLM, Last.fm, YouTube etc are pretty neat, especially with Kinect control. Not to mention the recent TV on demand services.
While multi-tasking is handy, I can still access Twitter, Facebook etc through 360 if I'm desperate to, for whatever reason (never have been after a quick play when they launched) or I can just fire them up on my mobile phone or laptop while gaming on 360, both of which are more preferable tbh.
So yeah, those features are nice and it's good the Vita has them, especially if it wants to be regarded in a similar fashion to a mobile, but they are not anything I'd be wishing to rush to the 360 (or whatever comes next), I was wondering more from a games and multiplayer perspective than that of social networking apps, where I still consider Sony to be behind on everything but the price!
Well I didn't mention those three because the Vita already has them. Plus the other big XBL feature the PS3 was lacking, universal custom soundtracks.
There's other stuff I forgot about last time too. Near, which lets you look at people around you, see what games they have, create/take part in challenges for user selected gifts (which I assume are in-game items) and rate your own games. And the Activity feed, which tracks your friends activity within games like Trophies and the like (think of Steam's Blotter). There'll be other things I can't think of at the moment too.
Yeah Near looks pretty awesome, saw some stuff on that, perfect for a handheld and looks really slick. But I still have not seen any coverage on how the Vita handles party systems and cross-game communication, which are an absolute godsend on 360 if you have time-inconsistent and frequently drunk IRL gamer friends to organise for late night sessions.
It's also interesting because it could demonstrate what Sony intend to push on their next console PSN with PS4, and what Microsoft would have to improve upon to justify the cost of Live and maintain their 'online frontrunner' reputation.
How much do you guys think the PS4 will be built around 3D? Sony has been pushing the 3D thing on and off this gen, so I feel like the PS4 will either drop it or go full steam.
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OK I've been looking into the Vita but can't see how this is true, care to enlighten me?
Can't see anything the Vita can do which XBL can't, aside from links to websites and ability to grab and post screenshots, while 360 still has plenty of features missing from PSN, as far as I am aware.
Not played with the thing myself yet, though.
On handhelds - the 3DS will outpace the DS in sales and have a huge year. The 3DS library is already better than the DSs was during its first year and if Nintendo can get a true Pokemon game out for it this year you'll see sales go absolutely ape nuts. I don't think we'll see a hardware revision this year though - I think Nintendo realizes the DS/DSLite/DSi/DSiXL got confusing and may have muddied the water for the 3DS launch.
The Vita will be hacked quickly and have similar piracy issues as the PSP. It will do exactly like the PSP did - sell ok at first to a hardcore crowd and then sales will drop. It will get a better library than the PSP though based on the ease of console ports. Every analyst will say Sony should drop the price, but they won't until maybe close to Christmas.
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It has a USB port, correct? I would assume they still will have some form of "plug into your pc and drag/drop music and video" in there. I never used a Duo reader to hack my PSP, just a single USB cord.
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Those are simple to crack, unfortunately.
I'm pretty sure Konami is going to show us two things at E3 2012 (their only time to really do anything): Lords of Shadow 2, and another compliation / HD remake or whatever. I dunno what they'd do for the latter, probably slap already-made Castlevania games together. We're not going to get another Metroidvania, let alone any handheld Castlevanias, and I'm just going to hate the fuck out of them.
Capcom is going to more Mega Man for iOS, in some way. And it'll be the only way we get anything Mega Man from them. And they will be hated.
... I'm a negative nancy.
That's a good thing to consider. Square's big ol' franchise is losing heat fast, so are they gonna be able to bring it back? The whole thing has been built on "omg graphix" more than anything else. Maybe they will decide to knock that off. But I doubt it. I think Square is going to promote the MMO more, but have nothing FF for the year. It's going to be all other titles.
Their mobile division has only just hit the Android scene and are doing great things, really hope they tap further into this market.
I have no predictions for Sega. And I'm not very happy with them so I'm gonna be nice and keep my mouth shut (it's for another thread).
you had me until here. Look MS isn't not doing anything wrong. The J Market is against them. They will literally shell out R&D money just to have a no export for the US release come to the PS3 and get adopted and their Xbox version called a beta.
Think about that.
Otherwise, yeah, major problem. J-development is handheld focused and the handheld leaders for the J market have barely no Western presence. the Western handheld leaders ARE those trivial time wasters that anyone could just pick up and play. We need to seriously get our heads out of our asses that "we" are the core demographic that lead and drive sales. We haven't been for some time. It matters more to have the next Angry Birds, Brain Age, maybe Layton than anything we consider for us.
Monster hunter four and the promise of it and Dragon Quest is what saved the 3DS with holiday sales securing a possible NA future. The issue is that without the time wasting gunk and the mobile market competition what the hell can Nintendo do, it won't lose the Japanese market, but we western gamers are already losing it and Western Developers don't want to go to Nintendo if multiplatform apps and Steam are available.
It was with the 3DS so.. yes
Honestly I expect the nextbox to rebrand itself in an effort to compete with "Apple Life" though will include the Kinect and other media entertainment features and ditch its slight immature college image if only to follow and support its original consumer base many of whom will have spouses or be part of households and need to justify the higher expense. This will replicate the PS2 craze more than anything, unless the WiiU is surprise hit but with the hardcore especially smarting from their treatment in Generation Wii and 3rd parties STILL not giving good support, and the indie market being snubbed (well iOS where alot of the fun innovation is, there or Steam) expect a stumble and somekind of honest capitulation, not just a price drop, some sort of shaming before the Western market. Especially to deal with the growing issues of japan-backlash and estrangement. I mean, seriously the DS is being floated to the masses by "worst parts of a MMORPGer" Monster Hunter and a dating sim that creates virtual Mii babies of you and your virtual perfect girl. Those kind of differences go beyond just openmindedness vs. closedmindedness and straight to just cultural divides and hungers
I expect the 3DS, minus some tremendous fuck up, is secure, between having the two MONEY franchises for Japan it won't vanish but it may become a Japanese machine while PSV, just by multifunction and fitting mroe the western ideal is luxury NA item. But handhelds need a comprehensive strategy for the new iOS market. Nintendo has spat on those folks faces already.
I can't give numbers but it really does hang on who will BUY the WiiU not just who its sold to. Every gaming guru and most online gossip is sold on this fantasy of the revenge of the hardcore against Nintendo. That Nintendo must renew our succor or something. It doesn't help that unless they can make the Wii U
nonproprietary or run multiple tablets they'll have dumbed down version of what Apple plans to offer mid 2012 and MS and Sony are preparing to offer or can offer in response to the market.
If movies aren't going discless don't expect consoles to, though expect, until a severe backlash, more and more cheap DLC nickle and diming. Now eventually people will be okay with streaming but that will mean actual ownership by the consumer and accountability of the 'service provider" (right now this stance exists only to dictate increasing terms of control and demands of the consumder) of their not in their house held items.
I suspect PC/Amazon/Steam will be more leading the way there, not the "big 3."
I suspect the hardcore market will stop being catered to as stringently. That more or less came about due to the unique adolescent/aging of gamers and the content of the industry along with a response to the more general audience aesthetics of the Wii. As the General audience aesthetic is now adopted, in distinct flavors, by all of them hardcore services and products will be there but expect overall an image of household electronic entertainment device NOT radically hardcore toy. Gamers are just too old or even if young of the temperment to see that's a little reaching by now.
Mind you driving will always be marketing to adolescents, driving games are about fulfilling adolescent frustrations (I want a sweet ass ride like I saw on TV/movies/whatever) but we're distinctly realizing gamers are hobbyist enthusers with lives, careers, and families. As prices go up marketing and emphasizing the family or integrate life benefits and how our device fits into them will be more of thing.
WiiU should allow itself to be more... upgradeable, able to do something so you can later add more and more tablets and features. I suspect though that will be more the design philosophy for the Nextbox. MS was succesful in getting use to accept multiple SKUs at once on consoles with widely different performance depending on your personal investment and capacity. Expect them to capitalize on that good will. There will be a cheap "Roku" like alternative whare you upgrade the box but keep, your Kinect and other peripherals to be upgraded apiece later. A frugal alternative but the standard will have Kinect+ decent harddrive.
BC will be a phase out depending on convenience. If you can resell on downloads and software BC isn't worth it than make Hardware BC a special feature much as it became on the PS3. That will be the Premium Nextbox
I'd like to imagine a less grabby Xbox Live (pay more for the HSI you're already paying for!) but why would they kill the goose that lays their golden eggs? Especially if they can translate that into SECURING the internet and such for the user most of all. This is where MS will be ahead on the streaming and other stuff Western Market and US style. Japan will likely have some other not!steam way the US will resent the mere existence of and Japan will, as typical, presume standard or not factor as an issue in other markets unless they make their own new infrastructure.
The PSN will be shifting more of its free features to premium service, it will start with a security subscription but just you wait.
The WiiU just might be able to get away with midlife tech-upgrading, WE scoff at the name but the Wii is a reliable name in gaming, fun, and decent if simple hardware they phased out BC without a fuss and we've taken TWO remote revisions and other peripherals with gripiing but we've taken them. As it was feature of this generation (and without doom and gloom as well) and we know they're going to put out a 3DS revision proper (circle pad's necessity to rebrand the hardware as viable in its own primary market) expect Nintendo to be acting more disturbingly like the competition, of at least this generation than.. well themselves.
The main problem is Sony is experiencing issues all around. I think 3D would be slow grow seeding thing. Especially as 3D goes from godline, to gimmick, to merely an encumbent but not necessarily uniquely critical feature overall. Think of it like the old sound systems with pre-HDTVs. Some folks at the super duper surround sound setups, others were basic but all prefered certain inputs and sizes and dimensions and features, at least stripped to standard.
Three overall for the 3DS, the 3DS lite (with dual analog) the 3DS 2.0 (Dual analog and better batterylife fixing the finickness of three d, maybe optional, not critical specs that are cheap over covers for those with glasses and varying vision issues, as the elderly are a big DS/Nintendo demographic I hope they are on this or partner or aid who gets on this, the sooner they combat the 3DS is neuralyzer in hiding the better)
The final revision, is dream version that is somewhere between pad and handheld and maybe add a phone or at least two way or Skype into there.
PSV there will just be refinements of now. mergers of game phones, 4-5g upgrades. And at least one "all DLC/digital" one that, if they are smart, will hook into ANYTHING to handle DLs and backups.
The iphone/android market is utterly beyond me, but we're headed for that big system maker and heartbreaker super app that will destory the gaming community. Pokemon, Capcom, Squeenix, and lord knows how many indies with great variations but not enough presence in the established market are already producing iOS material. Lets say Inafune's pirate penguin game becomes a hit and people adopt it in droves as a backlash against the abandonment by Capcom and the 3DS or just its sheer availability. Bang. devoured market. At this point Iwata needs to be rotated out and Reggie becomes the new more international face of Nintendo (well that of the Rainfall goodwill annointed NoE executive, who's name I don't know) and they can quickly me too and catch up with the eshop. In mainstream terms it will be too little too late and the Western handheld market dries up for Nintendo save for the elite douche symbol that will be the PSV.
The DS worked for its general appeal, ease of carriage and use, and nondedicated style. It will lose that as iphone just circulate and circulate, particularly if Nintendo insists on attacking the secondary market with SOPA and Apple will see no reason not to.
- What sort of controllers should we expect to see standard with each console, and how will this affect mass market appeal?
Kinect will be captiable or built in with the Nextbox. It will NOT come with a controller unless specifically getting the game package variation, then the controller will definitely break ties with the Xbox look. IF possible wireless xbox controllers will be compatible but it will be treated as it this is just as EVERY controller that's not proprietary could be.
PS4, a new revision of the dual shock (why change now?) Maybe something closer to a move or regular controller hybrid.
We've seen the WiiU controller guys. Its only "surprise" might be its ability to support two of them though it will incure three at a time Gamecube lag. Using it will be critcal. A multi-touch or stronger pad MAYBE ,insanely, universal pad applicability will develop on the thing if Nintendo sees the rough patch ahead and decides to divert the general electronics market as to have Iwata be slattered in butterscotch and coolwhip and do the rump hump to the camera to satify mainstream gamer's sadistic urges only to rejct it as too gay or missed it and they didn't stream to my PSVita or some contrarian reason. Making the WiiU a unique but not Nintendo exclusive piece with purchase of a nintendo application or something might be the only crazy swerve they need.
Of course expect MS to steal that idea first but from Apple who'll have implemented it with their TV and their their Any Games that Let Us box.
If Apple really wants to undermine not just outsell with a more powerful market they'll put out the pandorica. Put damned near ANYTHING you want into the damned thing system wise, just hook them up and you get them to work together. They can sell it on unifying complex peripherals, starting with Blue-Rays, Satellite/Cable, box, and other shit. A super next gen Roku.
Expect, though, due to ports, for the Classic Controller Pro to be sold out when the points come a calling.
- Who's going to gain exclusives, who's going to lose exclusives, and how will this drive or hurt hardware sales?
Until the next hardware no one. expect plenty of temptation to jump ship ESPECIALYL in the handheld market. Many Western handhled and indies won't even get on. They like their own freedom and born, many times, out of modders they'll feel animosity to Nintendo's policies and arbitrary requirements. PSV will be an incidental support thing because of the PSN.
Mainly though I expect First party and 2nd party to stay where they are. Ubisoft, being the rare 3rd party game intown might experience some particular gushing on the WiiU so B&GE2 or 1.5 may show up there as well as new IP as well. At least primarily if it shows promise and success it won't exclude just involve and hopefully make decent use of the tablet and motion controls.
- How will consoles be affected by the rise in popularity for portable devices? How will handhelds be affected by the rise in popularity for smartphones?
I think I touched this already but really this is smartphone's game to call at this point. Unless they descend into clusterfuckedupness the mere advantage of the tech seems poised to bury the old handheld market. It can reasonably play both games at once and it only going to bridge, experiment, and expand more.
- Who is doomed and/or going third party?
Everyone, this is the last or second to lasst generation. Nintendo might get their first, failure means something other than "lets pull back on the games division for a bit and make them part of a multimedia program, if can't reopen just redistribute the assets" that Sony can do.
MS can do it and make it look like that was the plan all along. But while Nintendo is the most directly active against the Apple Life future, they have by far the least capacity to win this. Unless the Skylanders, eCCG thing REALLY takes off then it will recreate a niche but that's going to be among the young who may, for once, be bitten off at the lead to just inherit mom and dad's old kindle/smartphone and the apps for that than get sucked into another collect-athon that's not purely electronic or purely "think you have anyways"
The WiiU's biggest problem is that its offering the equivalent of hot wheels in the market of transformers...no how about this. Pads are very powerful, mobile PERSONAL devices. The ideas of them as fixed attachments to specific area with no other features or independent operation and even limited use in the house is what will kill it. The Tech and what we expect is too established and familiar and Nintendo's entrance too much like making etkch sketches to art classes.
http://www.industrygamers.com/news/game-industry-predictions-for-2012---billy-pidgeon/
http://www.industrygamers.com/news/game-industry-predictions-for-2012---jesse-divnich/
http://www.industrygamers.com/news/game-industry-predictions-for-2012---scott-steinberg/
http://www.industrygamers.com/news/game-industry-predictions-for-2012---david-cole/
Hm. Makes sense given that the 360 sold a bajillion units and the PS3 outsold the Wii in the US during the month of November. Curious what possibly record-breaking numbers December will bring to these two platforms.
*sigh* PCs have literally priced themselves and made themselves too much of a bother for even the above average consumer. You can not just happen to have a PC that runs a game unless its indie stuff (and they will sell on ANYTHING) hell even if it is indie stuff. Sure the signal is out for you to see about upgrading your PC to the current gen but really its getting ever more inconvenient for less and less unique benefit.
Pretty sure work has been done, mostly by Intel, to make PC gaming relatively viable and out-of-the-box for average consumers. Yes, not anywhere close to the performance of shit that we as nerds who build our own rigs do, but it's steps above what has been the norm. Still really needs to come to fruition.
Sony will have a successful handheld but not as much so as Nintendo's.
Nintendo's console will be the most successful due to its software lineup, hardware, and price.
Microsoft will remain in a solid second and Sony in a solid third.
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Nothing wrong with taking the safe guess. It's actually a good thing to put your money on, these guys are trying to maintain brand identity now that video games are a more widely accessed industry.
What are the XBL features you're talking about? Not just stuff like avatars and Last.fm, right?
It has a proprietary port, though obviously it'll have a USB cord to plug into the PS3/PC. But unlike the PSP, which let you drag/drop stuff onto it because it was the client in its relationship with its hosts (PC/PS3), the Vita is itself the host in all relationships. It's in control of all data transfers, so if it doesn't recognise something, it won't let you transfer it.
This is why the Vita will probably get Mac support down the line. The PSP never got that because apparently it was too much work to re-write their transfer pipeline, but since the Vita's handling that now, it should be much easier.
Unless you are a software engineer, video editor, etc, the stats of gaming rig are some prepostrous as... I mean remember how just overviewing the stats of what rig the man bought in texas was enough to indict him on misuse of funds.
That's the reality of PC gaming it made itself for nascent wannabe niche developers and so it is.
The market will always be there, ala motorcycles to cars. But its the height of bitterness and elitism to predict the PC correcting the console flood. Its biggest "win" was Minecraft something that undertaxed systems.
Even if you look past all the publisher bitching about pirating and whatnot, the money right now in PC gaming is in MMO's, F2P ones in particular. They don't require a high end rig, but many of them do require a baseline PC that is above some $300 HP shit you're gonna pick up at Best Buy.
Chocobo is right. It's so cliche and stupid at this point when people act like PC gaming is "done", it's been said for well over a decade, non stop, yet here we are.
PC Gaming isn't going to drastically change the direction of consoles, but pc gaming technology is clearly goign to have major bearing on the performance and internal design of next-gen consoles that are goign to be virtually required to do more than just play games.
Also, I really don't buy into the oft repeated mantra that smartphones and/or Apple are the future of gaming. They're not. Apple is not. They will be a player, obviously, but they're not going to doom consoles, they're not going to doom big budget AAA gaming, they're not going to doom cutting edge graphics and pushing envelopes. Social and casual gaming is not the future. It is simply part of a future that has gaming become what tv, books, movies and music already have. A diverse and mass medium that will no longer be a niche thing that caters to a specific set of people. It's idiotic when people act like it's goign to be one or the other. "ZOMG if smartphones are succesful handhelds are DEAD!". No. VHS didn't kill movie theatres, neither did DVD or Blu-Ray/HD-DVD. TV didn't kill movies, CD's didn't kill the radio (though, radio is doing its damnest to kill itself in the last decade). Things can and will co-exist. This isn't the last generation of consoles, but it will be the last generation of consoles that do just gaming, even though in all reality the current consoles already do more than just gaming.
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Not really. Take a cheap computer, add a $100 graphics card and you're set. Requirements for PC games have been going up very slowly since most games are designed to be multiplatform with the 360 & PS3 (which are very old these days).
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I do my PC gaming on a laptop I bought two years ago for $800. It wasn't top of the line then by a long shot, and while it is starting to have trouble keeping up with some releases (especially PC exclusives), it can play pretty much any multiplatform game at 360-standards or better. Yes, $800 bucks is way more expensive than a console, but it's nothing out of the ordinary for a computer if you planned on getting one anyway. I can only imagine what $800 would get me now.
Of course, this'll probably change once the next generation really ticks over.
As for actual predictions, I'll take some stabs in the dark. The WiiU looks neat enough for me, but Nintendo botched the reveal somewhat and left us with too many unanswered questions, which has allowed the internet rumor mill to go full-retard, for the most part. Right now I suspect the WiiU to mirror the path of the Nintendo 64 - selling respectably well, making plenty of money for Nintendo and pleasing fans, but ignored by some larger third parties, only given passing support by the truly platform-agnostic publishers, and perpetually fighting the image among developers and hardcore consumers alike that it isn't a serious enough console to own exclusively.
The update to the 360 will obviously keep going down the path that system is already on, fulfilling MS's decade-long wet dream of a set-top PC which it can control more rigidly. Kinect integration will be more extensive and sensors available out of the box. Live fees will remain and likely be higher, but MS will partner with more media outlets and perhaps provide a more television-like experience. I expect technology wise, it will only be a modest upgrade - enough to surpass the WiiU but otherwise nothing earth-shattering, thus allowing developers to easily transfer development over without raising costs drastically and allowing MS to make a healthy profit from the console itself while providing BC.
I have no guesses for the PS4. In fact, we're probably not going to hear about it this coming year.
Edit: As an addendum, I'll say that MS may start swinging its dick around a bit more and get more PC developers to go down the path of Epic and mostly stop releasing PC games in favor of their console. I think the direction they're heading in is to try and make the PC gaming environment be similar to the tablet and smart-phone market (MMOs excepted).
I din't say PC gaming was dooming itself to anything but extreme nicheness (which is how they like it and don't want to change).
The think about apple is that no other company is a poised for the transition. Nintendo still has yet to put out something that plays DVDs after that being a cornerstone of PS2 success. They still try to act like VGing is an exclusive proprietary thing to control. Now they aren't entirely wrong but the switchover to general media devices and integrated electronics and ARGs mean... well. My iphone, itv, ipad, imac, and all that I've gradually bought into at much more affordable than even launch Wii price that serves a function in my home/life.
Its getting harder to justify $500 plus charges on hardware that you primarily use to play DL titles (awesome DL titles), party games, and stream or disc movies on with the occassional almost worth it AAA hit that serves primarily myself and not me, my spouse, and my kid, hypothetically. Its MUCH more harder to justify that money for complex PC bit, especially with the focus on mobile, networking, and social gaming and such and I can't afford to MMO for ten hours a day anymore and etc.
I even pointed in my predictions MS is set up to just counter or join into the Apple Life idea. Sony ditto. Nintendo can't hope to, they aren't even an electronics company but a game company. People gleeful predict and await Nintendoom (remember the old industry thread title) but suppose this won't with the rapidly racing apart markets and other issues affect their "hardcore" experiences to.
Particularlly as the new competitor, Apple, took up all the new blood Nintendo thought it was recruiting to itself.
The real tough part is that the casual market is for gaming in general not companies or certain things in the specific and old perennial earners are drying up and new replacements, stable ones, are few and far between. Infinity Ward mad Modern Warfare 2, veritable human history event, and was closed down.
Apple having a more stable base with gaming being an aspect and not a focus will sweep aside the market and its design.
I think PC gaming will change to more resemble consoles or the New UrConsole will come before PC gaming "leads" anywhere.
And I just don't happen to buy into most anything you're saying. You're just repeating stuff that is parroted by "analysts" for the last couple years and the fact that anyone that has even casually followed the industry threads for the past few years can give any creedence to their speculations, that virtually always prove to be wrong, is moderately funny.
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More the solid party system, cross-game invites and chatting, beacons and that sort of thing. But yeah, Avatars are still pretty cool and services like (especially) LOVEFiLM, Last.fm, YouTube etc are pretty neat, especially with Kinect control. Not to mention the recent TV on demand services.
While multi-tasking is handy, I can still access Twitter, Facebook etc through 360 if I'm desperate to, for whatever reason (never have been after a quick play when they launched) or I can just fire them up on my mobile phone or laptop while gaming on 360, both of which are more preferable tbh.
So yeah, those features are nice and it's good the Vita has them, especially if it wants to be regarded in a similar fashion to a mobile, but they are not anything I'd be wishing to rush to the 360 (or whatever comes next), I was wondering more from a games and multiplayer perspective than that of social networking apps, where I still consider Sony to be behind on everything but the price!
Seriously, Nintendo isn't going anywhere because they have their bases covered. People just think 'Nintendo the game company' when Nintendo is really a pretty huge multifacted game company.
Also, apple is losing share like woah. If anything Apple will have to start keeping up with Android if it hopes to compete. The only edge Apple has anymore is their closed environment app store but a history has proven, that wont satisfy people, much less developers, forever.
I think the WiiU is going to flop at launch. The wii's launch wasn't great for awhile till it was impossible to find, 3ds launch wasn't great (although it's picking up steam) but I don't know If I see it taking off like the 3ds recently has, and definitely not like the wii did.
My worry is their coming off the wii, even though it sold great, like they did with the N64. You're only going to buy it for Nintendo stuff. I don't think the casuals are going to attach to this like the wii.
I also think microsofts little announcement on the new xbox will have an effect much like the PS2 did to the DC.
I predict Microsoft will take an early lead, that could hurt them like it always hurt sega releasing ahead of Nintendo depending on what Sony does, and WiiU ends up being a distant 3rd.
I hope I'm wrong about Nintendo, and know my first buy is the new xbox and I'll pick up the WiiU for Mario Kart if a good golf game comes out.
(oh, and I own a wii, 3ds, and ds along with a GC, N64, and a SNES, so I hope I'm wrong)
This is what this threads for right? Predictions like this so we can eat our cocks later?
There's other stuff I forgot about last time too. Near, which lets you look at people around you, see what games they have, create/take part in challenges for user selected gifts (which I assume are in-game items) and rate your own games. And the Activity feed, which tracks your friends activity within games like Trophies and the like (think of Steam's Blotter). There'll be other things I can't think of at the moment too.
This is as predicty as I get!
Yeah Near looks pretty awesome, saw some stuff on that, perfect for a handheld and looks really slick. But I still have not seen any coverage on how the Vita handles party systems and cross-game communication, which are an absolute godsend on 360 if you have time-inconsistent and frequently drunk IRL gamer friends to organise for late night sessions.
It's also interesting because it could demonstrate what Sony intend to push on their next console PSN with PS4, and what Microsoft would have to improve upon to justify the cost of Live and maintain their 'online frontrunner' reputation.