Don't shift goalposts. When people talk PC gaming they mean Skyrim and Witcher 2 or something RTSy or what have you. MMOs tend to be a different beast and being able to handle one doesn't guarantee the other.
Boom, you now have a better gaming computer than I do and my computer can play pretty much anything that's out there at Xbox 360 or higher settings. And of course, if you build your own computer, you can get much better performance for even cheaper.
WiiU will be less underpowered relative to the other consoles than the Wii, but still focused on Nintendos core princiPle: it will make them money on every unit sold early in its lifecycle at aow pricepoint, and it will sell units on the back of Nintendo first party titles, which will sell like liquid crack. Because that's all Nintendo needs or even wants to make their money, the platform as a whole will be a total crapshoot for third party support even if it can easily take ports from the 720/PS4...which I'd say is probably a long shot at best anyway.
Xbox 720 is going to go way overboard with the Kinect integration, which i expect to be a standard for the console, and the increased launch dollar cost of that is going to make the initial uptake slow. I expect to see more streamlining and condensing of the media functionality. And I damn well better see wireless, dammit.
PS4 is going to...hell, I have. O idea. Itd make sense to drop the motion crap, offer free online play, and beat the 720 on price to capture the 'hardcore' element. So much sense I'm fairly convinced Sony wont do that, but will stuff everything and the kitchen sink into the thing and then require you to buy a Vita as a controller.
Yeah, I think that it is almost a given that the next Playstation will integrate the Vita to mimic the functionality of the WiiU's tablet controller. Honestly, that functionality might just end up being integrated into the PS3, putting it at parity with the WiiU - which would be interesting.
I suspect MS, if it goes down that path at all, will try to make it happen through Windows Phone. Thus, nobody will care or use it.
No goalposts are being shifted. PC gaming isn't some narrow set of genres or games. It is all encompassing. You just want to use your own narrow view and definition of what PC gaming it because you think it supports your argument.
And I just don't happen to buy into most anything you're saying. You're just repeating stuff that is parroted by "analysts" for the last couple years and the fact that anyone that has even casually followed the industry threads for the past few years can give any creedence to their speculations, that virtually always prove to be wrong, is moderately funny.
Okay, fine, lower end independent PC gaming will continue to flourish. Especially in those areas where experimentation on formula and style or low circulation with internet connectivity or complex user input is critical. I was thinking in terms of AAA PC exclusives. Its mainly that the PC-ification of gaming is.. well mostly here already there isn't much more catch up that has to be done. and people have been willing to settle for less.
Nintendo is probably the easiest to transition into an Apple Lite type company. They have storefronts already, several dozen developers who could easily transition into mobile (Due to making apps and wii channels and such, which all function similarly to how mobile apps are stored/launched.) and are a multi-facted company that does everything from trading cards to toys to candy.
Seriously, Nintendo isn't going anywhere because they have their bases covered. People just think 'Nintendo the game company' when Nintendo is really a pretty huge multifacted game company.
Also, apple is losing share like woah. If anything Apple will have to start keeping up with Android if it hopes to compete. The only edge Apple has anymore is their closed environment app store but a history has proven, that wont satisfy people, much less developers, forever.
In Nintendo's case less is the base function of a Wii machine unless they force some sort of obselence (sorry about the spelling) scheme getting the casual market to even want to upgrade, let alone assuring its to the WiiU will be an issue. Particularly if the WiiU goes to highlighting the benefit of player one and two as to being a group free for all like the Wii was marketed as being. While the pad wil bel resembling pad tech of today it is actually less personal, less able, and less mobile, its just a more complex and limited in availability interface. Thats why I mention if they made an app that let you use your already existant pad for your WiiU they could redirect the greater market to their product. But as a move that seems out there, and distinctly western in flavor, and antiNintendo who love controling what goes onto and into their product unless forced otherwise. Nintendo's big thing is they don't share or desperately try to control third parties to maintain their unique brand with the common problem their uniqueness isolates and makes them difficult to work with (arbitrary limits or demands, little support) and there are the horror stories.
In terms of casual market the easiest is going to be the most supported. And well its easier for Apple to diversify or offer more indepth than for Nintendo (the casual dependent juggernaut now stumbling) to be that much easier for the masses to access.
I was wrong its not just a tech thing its a market thing, your smartphone is going to do more for you, play equivalent games for you, and be cheaper because its factored into your needs and lifestyle costs (try getting by without a personal phone and the superlativeness of apps and texts and gps makes them hard to quit). All this and they are easier to get, insure, repair, and cheaper to boot.
I do my PC gaming on a laptop I bought two years ago for $800. It wasn't top of the line then by a long shot, and while it is starting to have trouble keeping up with some releases (especially PC exclusives), it can play pretty much any multiplatform game at 360-standards or better. Yes, $800 bucks is way more expensive than a console, but it's nothing out of the ordinary for a computer if you planned on getting one anyway. I can only imagine what $800 would get me now.
$800 is ridiculously expensive. Did you NEED that computer? I have one from 2003, a desktop, it would be a fortune to upgrade (need a new motherboard likely, to start with), and aside from the Windows XP phase out it does pretty much everything else I need (documents, excel, surfing, taxes, hell plays video decently and burns me Dvds) and want but I couldn't hope to run Doom 3 without pouring the kind of money at which I start thinking about my insurance, tuition, or car payments, furniture, or just damn getting used or just discount current generation gaming system.
{Rainbow Despair pretty much schooled me here, open if want to see where I was coming from}
Admittedly I'm years from considering an HDTV but I could still get decent multifunction Blu Ray player with DVD upscaler and that could compatible with Hulu and Netflix for less than a used DS Lite (well almost, gimme three months when the new electronic mantoys roll in). Before that thanks to the HDTV and digital signal switchover old CRTVs that used to be expensive and LARGE pieces are going for peanuts at your Salvation Army and they are in decent condition. for about a third of my first discount 19" Walmart-y TV I got a near 30 incher two or so years ago. The only drawback is its weight and its not the most input enabled and I needed a universal remote (19.99 from Radioshack) Add in netflix (the poor man's cable subscription) and I'm good. Down payment $80, monthly expenses (not contract) $14.99, benefit all the local TV and can usually catch up movies or lasting hit shows even on premium channels.
Now factor in the cost for a gaming rig and how long it lasts for a PC exclusive gaming rig (I'll be nice $700, a high end launch PS3). IF you just want an internet box you're fine (as been said HP basic thing from best buy or so on, $300) but thats STILL hellaexpensive. Beyond that you're seriously going to have to ask yourself what the hell am I using all the Gigahertz or Terrabytes FOR! I mean I don't design architecture I make resumes, write papers, design documents, and etc. As things go more and more to cloud/streaming it becomes a bigger question. Moreso as it seems not a month goes by without some DRM/security scandal that puts even more pressure on the end user or it seems I am not to actually own or play games I buy on my ridiculous powerstatted behemoth but kindly report all activity and so on to the motherbrain to allowed the glorious privilege of (insert company name here) service and pay them or someone for it I just want shoot aliens and punch crooks in the dick man!
I know its overstated and comes off as futile whining but the security feature of Diablo III really did lose (or at least explicity state they were excluding me) as a customer based on my general disposable income and status which is NOT geared to reliable and affordable or even competitive HSI rates. Compare the other entertainment at my finger tips without having to put $700 down, plus lords knows the other software and service, and $99 a month plus other expenses surely to feed my gaming habit. Gaming is an expensive habit, PC gaming has proudly crowed its the most expensive, risky, and technically frustrating form of it.
Even if I went smartphone that's a possible $100 down (possibly MUCH less, especially with holiday deals) and $99 a month BUT also includes necessary utility cost which in general, not just luxury, enhances my lifestyle.
Now. The new Freemium model is all about lowering the fence for entry while allowing for custom premium as you want it (and easy almost casino-like ease of spending). but that's a hornet's nests of issues (much like HSI and DLing everything you WILL need to spend on internet security or deal with some mal-software or some expensive failure, count on it.) but at least disciplined spending can help you here.
The Big 3's problem is they aren't set up to do the long established phone thing, at least not in the US. This is especially Nintendo's problem as they don't like doing things at cost or go to the highest ends and couldn't set it up if they wanted to (Sony or MS could kludge something and as it may be critical to their overall corporate mandates... well may do it anyway). There are no video game subscription plans with security, service, and ease and reliability that aren't about taking even more of your money for more goodies that appstores and steam have "proven" they could provide for less. Their "service" model is less phone and cable more insurance, they are hoping you pay alot that they'll never have to lose money on you, its all racket.
A big change I predict is at least the illusion of increased customer support and security will be used to sell more premium online services (basic customer support is just getting too expensive and the standards of what is basic are rising due to the prominences of Apple Life). It will tie down customer loyalty more and give a solid ground to try their own services and products but everyone from supermarkets to banks to theatres are doing that (heck that's Club Nintendo and such already) so that's a duuh-iest prediction possible. EA Origins is everyone's current whipping boy but these growth pains are inevitable with customer service increases, the problem is the expense and overall worthlessness of gaming (its just a child's hobby with adult costs) mean the slightest inconvenience (RIGHTLY) incurs the most loudest wrath and everyone is very sensitive to perception right now.
Vita is secured as a premium gaming hardware, most will adopt the one portable device philosophy (especially if that one device it <$100 and needed to access your emails and voicemail for even an entry level job like... pizza deliverer), but having a high end gaming device will always appeal. 3DS is in a jam though longterm in the Western market. Monster Hunter and DQ aren't institutions here. They are losing the casual junk market and they can't be "The Best Around" so they'll need.. well a neat gimmick to push their product. Only we're in the critical 3D backlash zone and there have been a number of delays and cancellations of even wide appeal franchises (Layton/Pheonix crossover, Megaman Legends seemed, in general a great idea to build a brand around) Maybe streaming and streetpass and the eshop may save them but that just puts them in competition with.. well Smartphones (which again are cheaper and fall more under need than childish luxury while doing the same thing).
The electronic collectible card thing they premiered with the Kid Icarus preview and seems to run on the Skylander thing might be it, but that only secures kids how about a general audience gimmick/tie in for us Westerners? One that justifies the redundant expense
As for actual predictions, I'll take some stabs in the dark. The WiiU looks neat enough for me, but Nintendo botched the reveal somewhat and left us with too many unanswered questions, which has allowed the internet rumor mill to go full-retard, for the most part. Right now I suspect the WiiU to mirror the path of the Nintendo 64 - selling respectably well, making plenty of money for Nintendo and pleasing fans, but ignored by some larger third parties, only given passing support by the truly platform-agnostic publishers, and perpetually fighting the image among developers and hardcore consumers alike that it isn't a serious enough console to own exclusively.
Its more their opponents can do the PS2 undercutting the Dreamcast thing. Basically keep hinting at their own unguanranteed possibilities, highlighting the WiiU's failures and quirks, and capitalizing on the fact there really is only a limited amount of market space and money in electronic entertainment. I mean once I heard the PS2 would play DVDs I think I and everyone in my age group and even many PARENTS were sold. They were only a tiny amount more expensive than the on market ones (once upon a time a $99 DVD player was cause to go to war) and would shut up the kids! In short they are underattack while their forces are still in preparation but their enemy's assets aren't arranged at risk. They can just weaken confidence and image and wait and see, even if neither actually comes up with anything this year the careful rumor mill management and R&D and expansion into other markets (the WP7 phones, more gamer phones and Vita stuff, etc) will make them look shiny and new and convince people the new hotness is coming. but if anyone actually moves I'm guessing its MS first
The update to the 360 will obviously keep going down the path that system is already on,
I confess I'm lost what this is aside from winning, making sure they don't abandon Kinect and carefully undercut rumors about their own age/relevance.
fulfilling MS's decade-long wet dream of a set-top PC which it can control more rigidly.
I missed this diabolical MS conspiracy theory care to explain what those words all mean?.
Edit: As an addendum, I'll say that MS may start swinging its dick around a bit more and get more PC developers to go down the path of Epic and mostly stop releasing PC games in favor of their console. I think the direction they're heading in is to try and make the PC gaming environment be similar to the tablet and smart-phone market (MMOs excepted).
I agree only I don't think MS has to make anyone do anything.
Don't shift goalposts. When people talk PC gaming they mean Skyrim and Witcher 2 or something RTSy or what have you. MMOs tend to be a different beast and being able to handle one doesn't guarantee the other.
I think PC gaming will change to more resemble consoles or the New UrConsole will come before PC gaming "leads" anywhere.
Something to think about on PC gaming:
League of Legends has an enormous hardcore tournament scene, has a playerbase in the millions, is an RTS, and its recommended video card is nearly 6 years old. Portal is 1 year old now, but when it was new its recommended video card was about 5 years old at the time. Meanwhile, the video cards that will run Battlefield 3 at the very nice settings on the PC have more RAM than all the video memory and system memory of an X360 and a PS3 combined.
Single-player AAA PC titles that can be ported to the consoles have changed to being console-like years ago. It costs too much money not to. On the other hand, it's a sure thing that the console game makes would love to have something like the Facebook or F2P games on the PC, because those are gigantic moneymakers. There's going to be continued cross-pollination between console and PC, while both try to connect with/be relevant with the exploding mobile market.
The current gen of consoles started along the path of being more than just game platforms and are trying to be the focus of the living room. The next logical step would be to expand everywhere else in the house and start kicking the low end PC market in the tits. Why would anyone buy the 500 dollar Wal-Mart PC when their PSHal 9000 or X-Bro 420 can cover the email/word processor/internet box role just as easily?
Adding 1st party software like PS-Paint or X-Word and coupling that with robust 3rd party app development would do a lot to drastically expand the penetration of home consoles. From there, they just need their new generation of games to come with native mouse and keyboard support and I think they'll have a new generation of consoles that people will be lining the streets for.
$800 is ridiculously expensive. Did you NEED that computer? I have one from 2003, a desktop, it would be a fortune to upgrade (need a new motherboard likely, to start with), and aside from the Windows XP phase out it does pretty much everything else I need (documents, excel, surfing, taxes, hell plays video decently and burns me Dvds) and want but I couldn't hope to run Doom 3 without pouring the kind of money at which I start thinking about my insurance, tuition, or car payments, furniture, or just damn getting used or just discount current generation gaming system.
*sigh* PCs have literally priced themselves and made themselves too much of a bother for even the above average consumer. You can not just happen to have a PC that runs a game unless its indie stuff (and they will sell on ANYTHING) hell even if it is indie stuff.
...to which I and others replied that we do in fact happen to have computers that run games - computers which are reasonably priced as computers go and perfectly capable of playing modern games. It was your suggestion that you need niche, expensive hardware to do any serious gaming that I was contesting.
The PC is not a threat to console gaming, but it has recently proven to be a fine supplement or even replacement in my own case. Now, If people insist that buying a $400 netbook or tablet and a $300 console is cheaper than a decent PC that can also play current games, then perhaps they are right, but probably not by much. As for whether I needed an $800 computer - yes, I needed a laptop, for all of the reasons students typically need computers, as well as occasional photo and video editing and gaming (which, by the by, with Steam and other digital distributors, can be significantly cheaper than on consoles). My laptop was solidly middle-tier PC when I bought it, now it is low-end.
I mean, what are you actually arguing here? Is it that nearly ten year old PC tech is still all that most anybody needs? That it is cheaper overall to game on a console? As you've seen, I'd even argue against the latter, but the former isn't really grounded in reality in the first place. People, and plenty of them, are already buying PCs (and Macs) capable of playing modern games, they just don't know or don't care.
Its more their opponents can do the PS2 undercutting the Dreamcast thing. Basically keep hinting at their own unguanranteed possibilities, highlighting the WiiU's failures and quirks, and capitalizing on the fact there really is only a limited amount of market space and money in electronic entertainment.
The difference is, as far as we know it, there is no looming consumer technology that either MS or Sony can attach to their console to encourage broader adoption, nor does Nintendo have the same lack of goodwill that Sega had after the Saturn. At this point, people either like Nintendo or they don't, but the people who do won't accept any substitutes. If superior hardware was enough to convince everyone to keep away, this generation should be ending much differently than it is.
I missed this diabolical MS conspiracy theory care to explain what those words all mean?.
Not a conspiracy theory, MS has wanted a set-top box tightly integrated to their own software for at least a decade, if not more. From a Business Weekly article in 2001:
[Bill Gate's] latest offerings [including the first Xbox] bring Microsoft closer to the grand vision he has spun since he awoke to the Web six years ago. Gates sees a day when Microsoft software will run on any device, easily connecting people to the Internet wherever they happen to be. He's convinced that the way to achieve this "anytime, anywhere" computing is by weaving Microsoft's PC, server, set-top box, cell-phone, and handheld programs in with its Internet service technologies. Once that happens, Microsoft hopes to deliver software like a steady flow of electricity, collecting monthly or annual usage fees that will give it a lush, predictable revenue stream.
In fact, near the time of the announcement of the original Xbox, MS changed their corporate vision statement from "A PC in every home" to "Empower[ing] people through great software - any time, any place and on any device".
Yeah Near looks pretty awesome, saw some stuff on that, perfect for a handheld and looks really slick. But I still have not seen any coverage on how the Vita handles party systems and cross-game communication, which are an absolute godsend on 360 if you have time-inconsistent and frequently drunk IRL gamer friends to organise for late night sessions.
It's also interesting because it could demonstrate what Sony intend to push on their next console PSN with PS4, and what Microsoft would have to improve upon to justify the cost of Live and maintain their 'online frontrunner' reputation.
Everything's app based on the Vita, so the party system and cross-game chat are handled by the same app and it can have up to 8 people in a group. For some reason, it's separate from the friends list app and group messaging app (Vita/PS3 messaging) but I imagine they'll probably combine them in an update at some point.
I actually think that the Vita's a good sign of where both Sony and Microsoft will go next gen. Both I expect will really push for multi-tasking and having all retail games available on XBLM/PSN.
WiU- I predict this will be this big holiday item next Christmas and continue to be popular with families and other casual gamers. The tablet element will appeal to parents with younger children who are looking for a cheaper touch experience. Hardcore gamers will continue to be disappointed by the console except for niche players drawn in by Monster Hunter type multiplayer games.
Nextbox -Microsoft will continue to shape the Xbox experience more towards casual gamers with Kinect and additional enhancements to Live. Motion control gaming will not evolve much beyond Dance Central type experiences during the next generation. The Nextbox will be revealed at E3 and released in Fall 2013. MS's new tablet OS will be able to interface with the Nextbox for gaming, navigation and productivity. MS will also partner with one or more large content distribution networks such as Comcast and produce a skew that can also serve as a cable box and/or DVR.
PS4-Sony will continue to limp along in the NA market, while retaining popularity in Japan and Europe. Sony exclusive titles will reflect this.
Overall-Digital distribution will falter as more NA ISPs implement data caps. The biggest trend in console gaming will be the introduction of MMO type systems. Both Blizzard or Bungie's new project will be some sort of persistent online game for both PC's and consoles. The first big downloadable title for Nextbox and PS4 will be a MOBA type game.
I normally don't jump into these threads, but this topic's too fascinating not to.
I'm reluctant to weigh in on the Vita until Sony starts advertising it post-worldwide release. While far from their only problem, an ill-conceived ad campaign is one of the missing components for true disappointment. I don't want the gizmo to fail, but a botched viral marketing scheme would likely be one handicap too many. Barring that I agree it will do better than the PSP outside Japan, though that's just a gut feeling at this point.
Apart from Xbox 720 speculation, finding inventive Kinect applications will be the most interesting thing anybody does with Microsoft hardware all year.
Betting on the Wii U underselling the Wii is basically free money, and Nintendo probably still has no idea what the box itself is going to look like. While it's up in the air exactly how it will sell, not matching the Wii's numbers will prompt the usual doom chorus in any case. That said, the device could theoretically tank and any losses would be recouped solely by the next Pokemon game on the 3DS.
Meanwhile, I expect the focus on phone gaming to plateau sometime in 2012; not plummet, but definitely level off at some point. This is also more of an impression, but I believe they're getting close to a saturation point where eventually they'll just eat into existing users rather than attract new ones. Basically dollars towards game X on the phone won't come from handheld Y, but instead from game Z on the same phone. Like any good gold rush, you'll have a lot of would-be iOS developers coming back empty-handed.
In general tech stuff, ISPs and digital distributors are eventually going to have it out, though I think that might still be more than a year off. In a fight between ISPs rolling out bandwidth caps and DD outlets pushing for bigger downloads, someone has to blink first. I'm guessing we won't hear as much about the magic of cloud storage in the back half of 2012.
And in tangentially-related matters, I expect investors are going to be more cautious about tech IPOs going forward. 2011 saw a lot of anticipation for companies like LinkedIn, Groupon, Zynga, etc. but as far as I can tell their prices have mostly been following the market, with little about the actual companies to generate any price movement. You'll still see people who think they know what they're doing, but the honeymoon period post-IPO will wear off faster and faster.
Anyone want to make a guess on what OS the Wii U will use?
Will it be a stripped-down custom Linux or Unix?
Will Nintendo try to create their own OS from scratch?
Or will it use magic fairydust to get by?
I very much doubt they'd use Windows or OS X...
I have absolutely no idea why you think Unix/Linux are even options. There's no reason at all to believe they're even remote possibilities.
It'll be a custom OS, just like every other Nintendo OS (or Sony one for that matter). And it won't be created from scratch, they'll build it off whatever framework they've already got (unless that framework is shit, then they would need to start over). No point throwing away code that you'll need anyway.
I think the next Xbox/PS3 will both use SSDs or similar flash type memory and rely heavily on cloud storage.
No way. Not unless you want to pay $600 for your system (or get a cheap SSD, at a whooping 32GB). Next next gen though? Sure, assuming prices have gone way down by then.
Xbox Next is going focus on connecting everything together. It'll be able sync with your Windows Phone, your Windows 8 pc and your Windows 8 tablet and you'll be able to do all kinds of crazy cross-device nonsense.
This of course relies on the other Windows devices not failing magnificently once they hit market, but it's my best guess as to MS's plan.
One of the nice things about PC gaming is that there actually are a wide range of degrees in how powerful a system can be. My newest system was just under $1,000, but that includes a monitor and an extra hard disk drive that I could have done without if I was more pressed for cash. I can farther still and maybe get a bit less RAM and go down another notch or two on the video card. If I really wanted, I could have spent more time watching out for deals, and slowly built myself a cheaper rig over a period of months instead of all in one go.
Triple-digit fps at maxed settings is certainly not required to play games on the PC. The system I am leaving behind for this new system will be five-years-old in March. It was a $3-400 Dell refurb deal, and I made three upgrades to it over its life span (a video card, new CPU and some RAM). Worked out just fine even with the newer titles this year.
Anyone want to make a guess on what OS the Wii U will use?
I have absolutely no idea why you think Unix/Linux are even options. There's no reason at all to believe they're even remote possibilities.
It'll be a custom OS, just like every other Nintendo OS (or Sony one for that matter). And it won't be created from scratch, they'll build it off whatever framework they've already got (unless that framework is shit, then they would need to start over). No point throwing away code that you'll need anyway.
Mostly because I'm dumb/ignorant.
I was under the impression, that the Wii's OS wasn't an overarching operating system that was working in the background, but rather all the programs such as games were mostly "coded to the metal" and ran on their own.
This is why I thought Nintendo might want a more substantial OS with more features.
I hope the hole I've dug my self into isn't too deep...
Late late Edit: After reading some Wikipedia, so pinch of salt and all that, but it is suspected that the PS3's OS is in fact a Unix-like. A Custom OS yes, but still related to Unix. So why couldn't Nintendo ever use any form of Unix or any of it's relatives/descendants, that they'd modify to their liking? I mean why wouldn't Nintendo use something that exists and is known to work?
I'm up to my neck aren't I? In the hole that is...
@Ultimanecat; okay to be clear, Rainbow Despair, and later l_g have convinced me PC gaming isn't as strenous as in the bad ol' days. You and Rorus Raz are correct, though making a poorer argument of it.
As for ten year old equipment satifying the need. Well pretty much yes. Now if you HAVE to get a new computer you can get one and with just a little more investment get into PC gaming. The services and breadth of PC gaming and the experience is relatively unique but expensive to start in, you you can justify it to yourself otherwise.
But aside from the Windows XP phase out my and my mother's computer which were last properly upgraded pre 2008 can easily handle any needs a computer is for and many wants so long as we don't go into PC gaming.
This is a serious concern/deterrence, because its not impossible someone may have or inherit a trusty old box that satisfies actual needs but doesn't extend farther without requiring more technical and financial strain. If you're just diving in its less painful. But $800 or a $1000 sudden purchase don't convince as much as a piecemeal $600 or finding there are vibrate PC gaming communities on games that don't require the latest in graphics, dual core, and etc.
Betting on the Wii U underselling the Wii is basically free money, and Nintendo probably still has no idea what the box itself is going to look like. While it's up in the air exactly how it will sell, not matching the Wii's numbers will prompt the usual doom chorus in any case. That said, the device could theoretically tank and any losses would be recouped solely by the next Pokemon game on the 3DS.
The problem isn't just the consumers its the investors, they can't even take Miyamoto retiring without pulling out. The main problem I'm foreseeing with the WiiU tablet is that its offbrand version of a real one to the point it undermines the appeal. Can you imagine letting your kids handling that thing especially with its hinted at $100 a piece issue and previous claims to not be sold seperately.
Meanwhile, I expect the focus on phone gaming to plateau sometime in 2012; not plummet, but definitely level off at some point. This is also more of an impression, but I believe they're getting close to a saturation point where eventually they'll just eat into existing users rather than attract new ones. Basically dollars towards game X on the phone won't come from handheld Y, but instead from game Z on the same phone. Like any good gold rush, you'll have a lot of would-be iOS developers coming back empty-handed.
This is perhaps the sanest "the iOS games are just a fad" prediction I've heard anywhere. The thing is pad and smartphone tech is cheaper or more productive than handhelds. There will be a diversification (iow Smartphone and Pad not just equal Apple for all intents and purposes) and yeah there will be a plateau its just... well. the concept of handheld gaming has gone totally mainstream and pads and smartphones sell to a much MUCH larger market than the DS. Japan has its killer app (Monster Hunter) the West has some perennial favorites for fans but where is the mainstream success. 3DS *launched* with Nintendogs+cats, brain trainers aren't exclusive to the DS and getting the latest is still more expensive than a phone plus apps and service you'd have paid for anyway.
I do agree, researching it, that the "gold rush" nature should level off some but I still think the Western market needs that something to establish it or else handhelds in the West my be abandoned by large number of J-companies. Why buy Nintendo if your favorite game will be out on your pad, phone, and pc for the same or less and moreover you've already to a smartphone or could get one for 69 bucks plus a two year contract trade in?
Not a conspiracy theory, MS has wanted a set-top box tightly integrated to their own software for at least a decade, if not more. From a Business Weekly article in 2001:
I figured it was a real business motto/direction but the way you described it made it sound nefarious and immoral as to just ... well EVERYONE's goal. This is basically the "At&t" future everyone was promising back when too. I just didn't understand the actual terms and how it fit together, thanks for answering, I just didn't want to make it sound like I was accusing you of being paranoid.
Square Enix will go under. Nintendo will now own Dragon Quest and Activision will get the rest.
I feel like Square Enix's future depends a lot on the success of Tomb Raider. They need a hit - a mainstream hit. Their core games are only going to keep getting more and more expensive to produce and the fan base for cinematic JRPGs really isn't growing to the point to sustain them just based on RPGs anymore.
I'm actually pretty sure the phone/tablet market is only going to get bigger and bigger. IIRC smartphones are still the minority compared to feature phones, and the tablet market is still waiting for a non- Apple device that doesn't suck.
I fully expect the mobile market to grow even more this year than it did last year.
I expect we'll start to see some decent smartphones coupled with cheap-o monthly payments sometime in the near future, and the smart phone games market could REALLY explode even more once such options become available.
Wii-U: Nintendo will get decent sales from whatever Wii-sports blue ocean killer app they have in their sleeves and the diehard Nintendo fans, but will fail to re-capture the Wii's crazy momentum, as the Wii name is now equated to software droughts and collecting dust in the eyes of far too many.
3DS: Sales will pick up dramatically compared to 2011 and the system will have an extremely successful year, and an announcement of a proper Pokemon RPG for the system will set the on Internet on fire, but overall the system probably not get to the heights of the DS's best years as I don't know what Nintendo can do for those who say "eh, my phone provides enough on the go entertainment anymore." They will probably skew even more toward the younger audience than usual as a result.
Vita: Will have some great games and develop a tiny niche with the hardcore, but will sell like crap overall. I think it's an awesome-looking product, but when people spend that kind of money on an electronic device this year, it's going to be on a console, phone, or tablet, not on a portable gaming system. Bwomp bwomp.
PS4 and Xbox Next won't release this year, but will get announced for a 2013 release. I expect Sony to take similar stupid missteps and make far too expensive of a system, but since they undeservedly have some of the best exclusive developers around it'll be very successful with the hardcore market, or at least it will eventually.
Microsoft will expand on their family friendly Kinect stuff and do good business, but I am a bit worried about their exclusive hardcore lineup. Gears of War and Halo just don't command the same kind of excitement anymore; so I expect them to throw staggering amounts of money into a new shooter franchise and marketing for it. This next generation could be Microsoft's big stumble.
Final Fantasy and Square Enix in general will continue to disappoint, but some other developer with the marketing budget to make it happen will finally come out with a crossover JRPG hit and revitalize the genre. This one is more wishful thinking than honest prediction, but there still seems to be a demand that no one one's meeting at the moment here; that'll change sometime.
With DOTA 2 and Counter Strike GO already coming out this year, we will be without Half-Life 3 come this time next year.
The next Call of Duty will be yet another game that is basically more Call of Duty 4 levels and maps with no real innovation or forward momentum, and will still sell insanely well. That will be a little depressing.
My PC cost $500 this year, the video card in it cost $100 3 years ago. I can run SC2 on high and that is a fairly graphics intensive game that came out this year.
Could you imagine getting that performance out for that cost 10 years ago? I've been a pc gamer since the early 90s and now is the best possible time to be a pc gamer. I have access to hundreds more games for a fraction of the price.
I feel like Square Enix's future depends a lot on the success of Tomb Raider. They need a hit - a mainstream hit. Their core games are only going to keep getting more and more expensive to produce and the fan base for cinematic JRPGs really isn't growing to the point to sustain them just based on RPGs anymore.
I'm assuming that Sony will develop the PS4 in pretty much exactly the way they've handled every other system. They'll take what their competitors are doing and try to one-up them in listed features and power, while pricing themselves out of the general market on release. Their system will be slightly better than the new Xbox in every way except the ones that matter, which will do nothing to discourage ports between the two, and will not have any significant innovations beyond perhaps increasing the number of an existing feature already present in their competitors.
So basically, the PS4 will have a controller with TWO screens.
I'd say a integrated touchscreen is almost mandatory.
Imagine an MMO a la Vindictus but you use the touchscreen to activate a spell or press Y to switch a mini menu with potions. Probably expanded versions of Phantasy Star Online II and DQ X for the Wii U would approach this. Microsoft needs to apply the Windows 8 tablet technology directly to the 720/Loop/Fusion without the need for a tablet and/or a Windows Phone. Sony needs to improve their Android tablets.
Also, I think selling consoles at a loss is bad for the industry. I'd say modest console packages (like the slim 360) are gonna be aimed for non-developed countries.
And Zune needs to expand internationally. Preferably places where Netflix doesn't have a strong grasp.
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I feel like Square Enix's future depends a lot on the success of Tomb Raider. They need a hit - a mainstream hit. Their core games are only going to keep getting more and more expensive to produce and the fan base for cinematic JRPGs really isn't growing to the point to sustain them just based on RPGs anymore.
Square published Deus Ex last year.
Yeah. Okay. Here's the thing. Square isn't going anywhere even when toriyama goes dead completely blind they're pretty good and diversified. The problem is JRPGs and how Japanese culture is perceived is getting a massive lashing now that the adolescent honeymoon of it is over and now we know that we adored in them was traits in us (GitS is less "eastern philosophy" and more Descartes and technoshock) and have carefully reproduced in quality and understanding of narrative and production values...well there is less an immunity to criticism.
That said I think Atlus is all set to sweep with the next big HD critical if not necessarily financial juggernaut in the jrpg sector. Persona is well WELL respected and known for started broad and in a way seen "innovative" by Western Markets while not considered stagnant or cliche or too animoo at the same time.
Skyrim may not be for me but it is a signifier if it was a decent PC rpg franchise you don't need the title bioware to sell it.
I kind of do wonder about the future of the rpg as a whole. Action games tell stories now, very effectively, or at least where they fail a switch of genres would not have saved them. Menus were always place holders for the more complex commands to type into keyboards or speak to DMs over dice. So I shouldn't resent or hate the move to using the unreal engine and PC design doing what it does best (great interactive visual environments in the fixed view) but still. The thought of EVERY future RPG, finally crobared free of fantasy and to more diverse stories and mechanics, becoming third person shooters with slightly more customization that won't scare away the that crowd worries me. Then again Fallout seems a stat nightmare and aside from grind I never truly mastered rpgs, as Atlus brand thoroughly reminds me.
In many ways the handheld focus and the retro-focus and yes PC gaming and Steam (may it ever be praised /snark) is the best thing to happen. I mean Radiant Historia is like Chrono Trigger the way it always should have been, more and more games get a second chance not beholden to the FF mold, and old but discontinued favorites are available for some besides the excessive collector.
In many ways Making every game more like Gears, Mass Effect, Dark souls, or Zelda feels RIGHT. And the genre has never had more respect and hitched to as mainstream a presence (fantasy movies seem to have at least kept a presence thanks to LotR, hobbit, Potter, and their imitators and competitors) Creating new needs and interesting examinations. We have room for Vanillaware AND Atlus AND Squeenix.
I do think however between the Red Cross and other misgivings the want for an actual diverse and complex war simulation and not just high tech paintball matches, as has been said, will get us culture ready to pounce on any FPS infirmity. This isn't a good thing as FPS represent THE FACE of gaming. Mortal Kombat knockbacks during the fighting game craze made people more cautious not wider in creativity.
I do expect a social game/mobile game though thats much more in home console as to arcade classic mold to show up causing some serious misgivings, especially if they can supply the money to revamp it to modern expectations (DQ spinoff or X itself).
RTS will rise in popularity now that more people can play them on the go and we're primed for the complex interactivity and resource management me of pokemon and farmville combined with basic war sims and such. Fuck maybe LoL beat me to it and the tablets or such will just help it rise.
Me here's what I really want.
A complete Arcade level quality ports to be the new hotness, especially things like Rolling Thunder. Remember that?
During a roundtable with reporters at the Consumer Electronics Show, a reporter asked a question to Hirai attributing comments to the head of its videogame division, Andrew House, that there would be no announcement about a PlayStation 4 at the show.
Hirai, who appointed House for the job, said they are not talking about a new home console now and that they don’t plan to do so at E3.
“Andy (House) is absolutely right in that we are not making any announcements at E3,” Hirai said. “I’ve always said a 10-year life cycle for PS3, and there is no reason to go away from that.”
Now, admittedly I got silly and did a quick comb-over of THIS thread to see if anyone predicted anything about the PS4 directly related to E3 2012, and the closest we have is,
PS4 and Xbox Next won't release this year, but will get announced for a 2013 release.
Probably not going to happen. I would've guessed that (not happening) before but now it seems more firmly in place. Sony has a good thing with the PS3 for the moment so they can ride it out, but if MS makes a move in 2012 or 2013 regarding their next console in any way, it's going to ruin that for Sony big time. It's going to force them to compete (Nintendo making a move by itself is no 'threat' from a business standpoint, but if it becomes a tag-team situation against Sony...). And Sony can't actually afford to, at this point. I'm not convinced they've fully recouped from the disaster of a launch and development of the PS3, and as a whole the company isn't smoking hot shit in electronics. They're pretty vulnerable right now, which when you consider how just a few years ago the PS2 was the God-king of the Earth... man. What happened.
How much do you guys think the PS4 will be built around 3D? Sony has been pushing the 3D thing on and off this gen, so I feel like the PS4 will either drop it or go full steam.
If the PS4 was coming out within the next couple years, it would be such a thing for it. But if the 10-year-plan is actually going to be upheld, Sony has time to figure out that 3D was a fad and not a smart business move. Whether or not they follow through on that, in their arrogance, is a totally different point. If their finances are any indication, even if they wanted to, they're not going to risk it.
The head of the gaming division and New President Kaz saying it won't be at E3 are about as final as we can get, but the internet still seems to be breathing a collective sigh of "yeah right." I don't see how they could stand back as Nintendo re-introduces their console in force and MS begins showing off theirs.
On one hand, it'll be advantageous for them to see what everyone else is doing so they can duplicate it better, and a later launch than everyone else means a more powerful system than everyone else. On the other, launching last won't do them any favors in terms of marketshare and devs will probably just make the lead version on WiiU or Nextbox and then port up to their console without using its extra power.
How much do you guys think the PS4 will be built around 3D? Sony has been pushing the 3D thing on and off this gen, so I feel like the PS4 will either drop it or go full steam.
If the PS4 was coming out within the next couple years, it would be such a thing for it. But if the 10-year-plan is actually going to be upheld, Sony has time to figure out that 3D was a fad and not a smart business move. Whether or not they follow through on that, in their arrogance, is a totally different point. If their finances are any indication, even if they wanted to, they're not going to risk it.
Personally I'd say the 3DS's 3D isn't a fad, but only because it's built in and doesn't require any fiddling on the part of the user (i.e. glasses). Similarly, motion control would've been a fad if Nintendo hadn't made it so integral to the Wii. There's nothing particularly special about Nintendo, it's just that when you build something into something popular, people will accept it.
But Sony really doesn't have any options for building in 3D with the PS4 - they could do a bundle with a 3D TV, but I have a feeling it wouldn't be super popular.
They could have an autostereoscopic tablet! But that doesn't help sell TVs so I wouldn't predict it.
For 2012, various predictions:
Sony:
Sony will all but phase out the Vita 3G model by the years end due to low sales.
No early price drop.
No PS4 reveal, very vague tease by years end.
Nintendo:
3DS redesign revealed in Q3, for sale in time for holidays.
WiiU out in Q4 Japan and US, delayed to 2013 in PAL.
WiiU power equal to two xbox360s taped together.
No smash brothers, just a brief tease at E3.
Microsoft:
720 reveal at E3, but not actually released this year. Built in Kinect, split controller, increased focus on services.
720 is more powerful than WiiU, but not as large a step up in terms of power as some may expect.
Apple:
In addition to iPad 3 and iPhone 5, a console like service will be launched to play games and apps on TV or monitors. It won't have buttons.
The first thing I keep coming back to for the next xbox, is that Microsoft will probably increase the available gamerscore for each game. I'm predicting they'll double it. It's an easy/free way to increase the perception of value from a large section of the audience, without any actual effort involved.
Achievements have become so bizarrely engrained in my mind and i hate it. There's so many wii games on my shelf I don't get to simply because playing them - with no friends to see what Im playing, no achievements to compare with folks, and no real record of what I've done with them - stay on my shelf. And I KNOW its stupid and I KNOW its wrong and I KNOW Im missing out but I just always reach for a 360 game first.
PSN: mxmarks - WiiU: mxmarks - twitter: @ MikesPS4 - twitch.tv/mxmarks - "Yes, mxmarks is the King of Queens" - Unbreakable Vow
Achievements have become so bizarrely engrained in my mind and i hate it. There's so many wii games on my shelf I don't get to simply because playing them - with no friends to see what Im playing, no achievements to compare with folks, and no real record of what I've done with them - stay on my shelf. And I KNOW its stupid and I KNOW its wrong and I KNOW Im missing out but I just always reach for a 360 game first.
And now you can get even more Achievements and Gamerscore if you buy on 720!
The reason I think the split controller is a possibility is for Kinect compatibility, you could do gestures while still holding the controller. Or could even have a game which only uses one half, with the other hand used for kinect stuff.
Oh, while a safe guess, I'll predict the 3DS can act as additional tablets for the WiiU.
Also, despite demand, the WiiU tablet will not have a capacitive touch screen.
i can see the nextbox going fully backwards compatible with accessories. it would take a ton of the sting out of buying a whole new console if you already have 4 functioning controllers and what-have-you.
i still think they'll use the current kinect hardware (especially after releasing the windows version which works better up-close) and just update it via the nextbox's capabilities and being built with the kinect in mind.
also expect a much larger push of kinect games once the nextbox hits.
Achievements have become so bizarrely engrained in my mind and i hate it. There's so many wii games on my shelf I don't get to simply because playing them - with no friends to see what Im playing, no achievements to compare with folks, and no real record of what I've done with them - stay on my shelf. And I KNOW its stupid and I KNOW its wrong and I KNOW Im missing out but I just always reach for a 360 game first.
Hell the lure of Achievements and Xbox Live something something is about enough to sell me on a Windows mobile!
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Buy a cheap $450 computer from Best Buy:
http://www.bestbuy.com/site/Gateway+-+Desktop+/+Intel®+Core™+i3+Processor+/+6GB+Memory+/+1TB+Hard+Drive/3152445.p?id=1218380507379&skuId=3152445
Buy a $120 graphics card from Amazon:
http://www.amazon.com/EVGA-Performance-Mini-HDMI-Graphics-01G-P3-1450-TR/dp/B0041RRNBM/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1325353521&sr=8-1
Boom, you now have a better gaming computer than I do and my computer can play pretty much anything that's out there at Xbox 360 or higher settings. And of course, if you build your own computer, you can get much better performance for even cheaper.
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WiiU will be less underpowered relative to the other consoles than the Wii, but still focused on Nintendos core princiPle: it will make them money on every unit sold early in its lifecycle at aow pricepoint, and it will sell units on the back of Nintendo first party titles, which will sell like liquid crack. Because that's all Nintendo needs or even wants to make their money, the platform as a whole will be a total crapshoot for third party support even if it can easily take ports from the 720/PS4...which I'd say is probably a long shot at best anyway.
Xbox 720 is going to go way overboard with the Kinect integration, which i expect to be a standard for the console, and the increased launch dollar cost of that is going to make the initial uptake slow. I expect to see more streamlining and condensing of the media functionality. And I damn well better see wireless, dammit.
PS4 is going to...hell, I have. O idea. Itd make sense to drop the motion crap, offer free online play, and beat the 720 on price to capture the 'hardcore' element. So much sense I'm fairly convinced Sony wont do that, but will stuff everything and the kitchen sink into the thing and then require you to buy a Vita as a controller.
I suspect MS, if it goes down that path at all, will try to make it happen through Windows Phone. Thus, nobody will care or use it.
Okay, fine, lower end independent PC gaming will continue to flourish. Especially in those areas where experimentation on formula and style or low circulation with internet connectivity or complex user input is critical. I was thinking in terms of AAA PC exclusives. Its mainly that the PC-ification of gaming is.. well mostly here already there isn't much more catch up that has to be done. and people have been willing to settle for less. In Nintendo's case less is the base function of a Wii machine unless they force some sort of obselence (sorry about the spelling) scheme getting the casual market to even want to upgrade, let alone assuring its to the WiiU will be an issue. Particularly if the WiiU goes to highlighting the benefit of player one and two as to being a group free for all like the Wii was marketed as being. While the pad wil bel resembling pad tech of today it is actually less personal, less able, and less mobile, its just a more complex and limited in availability interface. Thats why I mention if they made an app that let you use your already existant pad for your WiiU they could redirect the greater market to their product. But as a move that seems out there, and distinctly western in flavor, and antiNintendo who love controling what goes onto and into their product unless forced otherwise. Nintendo's big thing is they don't share or desperately try to control third parties to maintain their unique brand with the common problem their uniqueness isolates and makes them difficult to work with (arbitrary limits or demands, little support) and there are the horror stories.
In terms of casual market the easiest is going to be the most supported. And well its easier for Apple to diversify or offer more indepth than for Nintendo (the casual dependent juggernaut now stumbling) to be that much easier for the masses to access.
I was wrong its not just a tech thing its a market thing, your smartphone is going to do more for you, play equivalent games for you, and be cheaper because its factored into your needs and lifestyle costs (try getting by without a personal phone and the superlativeness of apps and texts and gps makes them hard to quit). All this and they are easier to get, insure, repair, and cheaper to boot.
$800 is ridiculously expensive. Did you NEED that computer? I have one from 2003, a desktop, it would be a fortune to upgrade (need a new motherboard likely, to start with), and aside from the Windows XP phase out it does pretty much everything else I need (documents, excel, surfing, taxes, hell plays video decently and burns me Dvds) and want but I couldn't hope to run Doom 3 without pouring the kind of money at which I start thinking about my insurance, tuition, or car payments, furniture, or just damn getting used or just discount current generation gaming system.
{Rainbow Despair pretty much schooled me here, open if want to see where I was coming from}
Now factor in the cost for a gaming rig and how long it lasts for a PC exclusive gaming rig (I'll be nice $700, a high end launch PS3). IF you just want an internet box you're fine (as been said HP basic thing from best buy or so on, $300) but thats STILL hellaexpensive. Beyond that you're seriously going to have to ask yourself what the hell am I using all the Gigahertz or Terrabytes FOR! I mean I don't design architecture I make resumes, write papers, design documents, and etc. As things go more and more to cloud/streaming it becomes a bigger question. Moreso as it seems not a month goes by without some DRM/security scandal that puts even more pressure on the end user or it seems I am not to actually own or play games I buy on my ridiculous powerstatted behemoth but kindly report all activity and so on to the motherbrain to allowed the glorious privilege of (insert company name here) service and pay them or someone for it I just want shoot aliens and punch crooks in the dick man!
Even if I went smartphone that's a possible $100 down (possibly MUCH less, especially with holiday deals) and $99 a month BUT also includes necessary utility cost which in general, not just luxury, enhances my lifestyle.
Now. The new Freemium model is all about lowering the fence for entry while allowing for custom premium as you want it (and easy almost casino-like ease of spending). but that's a hornet's nests of issues (much like HSI and DLing everything you WILL need to spend on internet security or deal with some mal-software or some expensive failure, count on it.) but at least disciplined spending can help you here.
The Big 3's problem is they aren't set up to do the long established phone thing, at least not in the US. This is especially Nintendo's problem as they don't like doing things at cost or go to the highest ends and couldn't set it up if they wanted to (Sony or MS could kludge something and as it may be critical to their overall corporate mandates... well may do it anyway). There are no video game subscription plans with security, service, and ease and reliability that aren't about taking even more of your money for more goodies that appstores and steam have "proven" they could provide for less. Their "service" model is less phone and cable more insurance, they are hoping you pay alot that they'll never have to lose money on you, its all racket.
A big change I predict is at least the illusion of increased customer support and security will be used to sell more premium online services (basic customer support is just getting too expensive and the standards of what is basic are rising due to the prominences of Apple Life). It will tie down customer loyalty more and give a solid ground to try their own services and products but everyone from supermarkets to banks to theatres are doing that (heck that's Club Nintendo and such already) so that's a duuh-iest prediction possible. EA Origins is everyone's current whipping boy but these growth pains are inevitable with customer service increases, the problem is the expense and overall worthlessness of gaming (its just a child's hobby with adult costs) mean the slightest inconvenience (RIGHTLY) incurs the most loudest wrath and everyone is very sensitive to perception right now.
Vita is secured as a premium gaming hardware, most will adopt the one portable device philosophy (especially if that one device it <$100 and needed to access your emails and voicemail for even an entry level job like... pizza deliverer), but having a high end gaming device will always appeal. 3DS is in a jam though longterm in the Western market. Monster Hunter and DQ aren't institutions here. They are losing the casual junk market and they can't be "The Best Around" so they'll need.. well a neat gimmick to push their product. Only we're in the critical 3D backlash zone and there have been a number of delays and cancellations of even wide appeal franchises (Layton/Pheonix crossover, Megaman Legends seemed, in general a great idea to build a brand around) Maybe streaming and streetpass and the eshop may save them but that just puts them in competition with.. well Smartphones (which again are cheaper and fall more under need than childish luxury while doing the same thing).
The electronic collectible card thing they premiered with the Kid Icarus preview and seems to run on the Skylander thing might be it, but that only secures kids how about a general audience gimmick/tie in for us Westerners? One that justifies the redundant expense
Its more their opponents can do the PS2 undercutting the Dreamcast thing. Basically keep hinting at their own unguanranteed possibilities, highlighting the WiiU's failures and quirks, and capitalizing on the fact there really is only a limited amount of market space and money in electronic entertainment. I mean once I heard the PS2 would play DVDs I think I and everyone in my age group and even many PARENTS were sold. They were only a tiny amount more expensive than the on market ones (once upon a time a $99 DVD player was cause to go to war) and would shut up the kids! In short they are underattack while their forces are still in preparation but their enemy's assets aren't arranged at risk. They can just weaken confidence and image and wait and see, even if neither actually comes up with anything this year the careful rumor mill management and R&D and expansion into other markets (the WP7 phones, more gamer phones and Vita stuff, etc) will make them look shiny and new and convince people the new hotness is coming. but if anyone actually moves I'm guessing its MS first
I confess I'm lost what this is aside from winning, making sure they don't abandon Kinect and carefully undercut rumors about their own age/relevance. I missed this diabolical MS conspiracy theory
I agree only I don't think MS has to make anyone do anything.
Odama 2 will launch with WiiU. Will win GOTY awards.
GTAV will sell a billion copies, get perfect scores, and the gameplay will be even worse than IV.
Mushroom Kingdom RTS will be announced at E3.
Pachter will be right about one thing, but only one thing.
Jim Sterling and Alex Navarro will be fired and black listed from the industry.
Chrono Trigger sequel announced and revealed for SNES. Mode 7 is back bitches!
Square Enix will go under. Nintendo will now own Dragon Quest and Activision will get the rest.
Capcom announces new Rival Schools and then week after release announces new Rival Schools.
Something to think about on PC gaming:
League of Legends has an enormous hardcore tournament scene, has a playerbase in the millions, is an RTS, and its recommended video card is nearly 6 years old. Portal is 1 year old now, but when it was new its recommended video card was about 5 years old at the time. Meanwhile, the video cards that will run Battlefield 3 at the very nice settings on the PC have more RAM than all the video memory and system memory of an X360 and a PS3 combined.
Single-player AAA PC titles that can be ported to the consoles have changed to being console-like years ago. It costs too much money not to. On the other hand, it's a sure thing that the console game makes would love to have something like the Facebook or F2P games on the PC, because those are gigantic moneymakers. There's going to be continued cross-pollination between console and PC, while both try to connect with/be relevant with the exploding mobile market.
I predict that Shiggy flips a table.
Adding 1st party software like PS-Paint or X-Word and coupling that with robust 3rd party app development would do a lot to drastically expand the penetration of home consoles. From there, they just need their new generation of games to come with native mouse and keyboard support and I think they'll have a new generation of consoles that people will be lining the streets for.
Your original statement was:
...to which I and others replied that we do in fact happen to have computers that run games - computers which are reasonably priced as computers go and perfectly capable of playing modern games. It was your suggestion that you need niche, expensive hardware to do any serious gaming that I was contesting.
The PC is not a threat to console gaming, but it has recently proven to be a fine supplement or even replacement in my own case. Now, If people insist that buying a $400 netbook or tablet and a $300 console is cheaper than a decent PC that can also play current games, then perhaps they are right, but probably not by much. As for whether I needed an $800 computer - yes, I needed a laptop, for all of the reasons students typically need computers, as well as occasional photo and video editing and gaming (which, by the by, with Steam and other digital distributors, can be significantly cheaper than on consoles). My laptop was solidly middle-tier PC when I bought it, now it is low-end.
I mean, what are you actually arguing here? Is it that nearly ten year old PC tech is still all that most anybody needs? That it is cheaper overall to game on a console? As you've seen, I'd even argue against the latter, but the former isn't really grounded in reality in the first place. People, and plenty of them, are already buying PCs (and Macs) capable of playing modern games, they just don't know or don't care.
The difference is, as far as we know it, there is no looming consumer technology that either MS or Sony can attach to their console to encourage broader adoption, nor does Nintendo have the same lack of goodwill that Sega had after the Saturn. At this point, people either like Nintendo or they don't, but the people who do won't accept any substitutes. If superior hardware was enough to convince everyone to keep away, this generation should be ending much differently than it is.
Not a conspiracy theory, MS has wanted a set-top box tightly integrated to their own software for at least a decade, if not more. From a Business Weekly article in 2001:
In fact, near the time of the announcement of the original Xbox, MS changed their corporate vision statement from "A PC in every home" to "Empower[ing] people through great software - any time, any place and on any device".
Everything's app based on the Vita, so the party system and cross-game chat are handled by the same app and it can have up to 8 people in a group. For some reason, it's separate from the friends list app and group messaging app (Vita/PS3 messaging) but I imagine they'll probably combine them in an update at some point.
I actually think that the Vita's a good sign of where both Sony and Microsoft will go next gen. Both I expect will really push for multi-tasking and having all retail games available on XBLM/PSN.
Will it be a stripped-down custom Linux or Unix?
Will Nintendo try to create their own OS from scratch?
Or will it use magic fairydust to get by?
I very much doubt they'd use Windows or OS X...
Nextbox -Microsoft will continue to shape the Xbox experience more towards casual gamers with Kinect and additional enhancements to Live. Motion control gaming will not evolve much beyond Dance Central type experiences during the next generation. The Nextbox will be revealed at E3 and released in Fall 2013. MS's new tablet OS will be able to interface with the Nextbox for gaming, navigation and productivity. MS will also partner with one or more large content distribution networks such as Comcast and produce a skew that can also serve as a cable box and/or DVR.
PS4-Sony will continue to limp along in the NA market, while retaining popularity in Japan and Europe. Sony exclusive titles will reflect this.
Overall-Digital distribution will falter as more NA ISPs implement data caps. The biggest trend in console gaming will be the introduction of MMO type systems. Both Blizzard or Bungie's new project will be some sort of persistent online game for both PC's and consoles. The first big downloadable title for Nextbox and PS4 will be a MOBA type game.
Wait, why do you think it'll use a desktop OS?
I'm reluctant to weigh in on the Vita until Sony starts advertising it post-worldwide release. While far from their only problem, an ill-conceived ad campaign is one of the missing components for true disappointment. I don't want the gizmo to fail, but a botched viral marketing scheme would likely be one handicap too many. Barring that I agree it will do better than the PSP outside Japan, though that's just a gut feeling at this point.
Apart from Xbox 720 speculation, finding inventive Kinect applications will be the most interesting thing anybody does with Microsoft hardware all year.
Betting on the Wii U underselling the Wii is basically free money, and Nintendo probably still has no idea what the box itself is going to look like. While it's up in the air exactly how it will sell, not matching the Wii's numbers will prompt the usual doom chorus in any case. That said, the device could theoretically tank and any losses would be recouped solely by the next Pokemon game on the 3DS.
Meanwhile, I expect the focus on phone gaming to plateau sometime in 2012; not plummet, but definitely level off at some point. This is also more of an impression, but I believe they're getting close to a saturation point where eventually they'll just eat into existing users rather than attract new ones. Basically dollars towards game X on the phone won't come from handheld Y, but instead from game Z on the same phone. Like any good gold rush, you'll have a lot of would-be iOS developers coming back empty-handed.
In general tech stuff, ISPs and digital distributors are eventually going to have it out, though I think that might still be more than a year off. In a fight between ISPs rolling out bandwidth caps and DD outlets pushing for bigger downloads, someone has to blink first. I'm guessing we won't hear as much about the magic of cloud storage in the back half of 2012.
And in tangentially-related matters, I expect investors are going to be more cautious about tech IPOs going forward. 2011 saw a lot of anticipation for companies like LinkedIn, Groupon, Zynga, etc. but as far as I can tell their prices have mostly been following the market, with little about the actual companies to generate any price movement. You'll still see people who think they know what they're doing, but the honeymoon period post-IPO will wear off faster and faster.
Now playing: Teardown and Baldur's Gate 3 (co-op)
Sunday Spotlight: Horror Tales: The Wine
It'll be a custom OS, just like every other Nintendo OS (or Sony one for that matter). And it won't be created from scratch, they'll build it off whatever framework they've already got (unless that framework is shit, then they would need to start over). No point throwing away code that you'll need anyway.
No way. Not unless you want to pay $600 for your system (or get a cheap SSD, at a whooping 32GB). Next next gen though? Sure, assuming prices have gone way down by then.
This of course relies on the other Windows devices not failing magnificently once they hit market, but it's my best guess as to MS's plan.
Triple-digit fps at maxed settings is certainly not required to play games on the PC. The system I am leaving behind for this new system will be five-years-old in March. It was a $3-400 Dell refurb deal, and I made three upgrades to it over its life span (a video card, new CPU and some RAM). Worked out just fine even with the newer titles this year.
I was under the impression, that the Wii's OS wasn't an overarching operating system that was working in the background, but rather all the programs such as games were mostly "coded to the metal" and ran on their own.
This is why I thought Nintendo might want a more substantial OS with more features.
I hope the hole I've dug my self into isn't too deep...
Late late Edit: After reading some Wikipedia, so pinch of salt and all that, but it is suspected that the PS3's OS is in fact a Unix-like. A Custom OS yes, but still related to Unix. So why couldn't Nintendo ever use any form of Unix or any of it's relatives/descendants, that they'd modify to their liking? I mean why wouldn't Nintendo use something that exists and is known to work?
I'm up to my neck aren't I? In the hole that is...
Did I at any time imply that I was thinking in terms of a PC/desktop OSs?
As for ten year old equipment satifying the need. Well pretty much yes. Now if you HAVE to get a new computer you can get one and with just a little more investment get into PC gaming. The services and breadth of PC gaming and the experience is relatively unique but expensive to start in, you you can justify it to yourself otherwise.
But aside from the Windows XP phase out my and my mother's computer which were last properly upgraded pre 2008 can easily handle any needs a computer is for and many wants so long as we don't go into PC gaming.
This is a serious concern/deterrence, because its not impossible someone may have or inherit a trusty old box that satisfies actual needs but doesn't extend farther without requiring more technical and financial strain. If you're just diving in its less painful. But $800 or a $1000 sudden purchase don't convince as much as a piecemeal $600 or finding there are vibrate PC gaming communities on games that don't require the latest in graphics, dual core, and etc.
The problem isn't just the consumers its the investors, they can't even take Miyamoto retiring without pulling out. The main problem I'm foreseeing with the WiiU tablet is that its offbrand version of a real one to the point it undermines the appeal. Can you imagine letting your kids handling that thing especially with its hinted at $100 a piece issue and previous claims to not be sold seperately.
This is perhaps the sanest "the iOS games are just a fad" prediction I've heard anywhere. The thing is pad and smartphone tech is cheaper or more productive than handhelds. There will be a diversification (iow Smartphone and Pad not just equal Apple for all intents and purposes) and yeah there will be a plateau its just... well. the concept of handheld gaming has gone totally mainstream and pads and smartphones sell to a much MUCH larger market than the DS. Japan has its killer app (Monster Hunter) the West has some perennial favorites for fans but where is the mainstream success. 3DS *launched* with Nintendogs+cats, brain trainers aren't exclusive to the DS and getting the latest is still more expensive than a phone plus apps and service you'd have paid for anyway.
I do agree, researching it, that the "gold rush" nature should level off some but I still think the Western market needs that something to establish it or else handhelds in the West my be abandoned by large number of J-companies. Why buy Nintendo if your favorite game will be out on your pad, phone, and pc for the same or less and moreover you've already to a smartphone or could get one for 69 bucks plus a two year contract trade in?
I figured it was a real business motto/direction but the way you described it made it sound nefarious and immoral as to just ... well EVERYONE's goal. This is basically the "At&t" future everyone was promising back when too. I just didn't understand the actual terms and how it fit together, thanks for answering, I just didn't want to make it sound like I was accusing you of being paranoid.
I feel like Square Enix's future depends a lot on the success of Tomb Raider. They need a hit - a mainstream hit. Their core games are only going to keep getting more and more expensive to produce and the fan base for cinematic JRPGs really isn't growing to the point to sustain them just based on RPGs anymore.
I fully expect the mobile market to grow even more this year than it did last year.
Wii-U: Nintendo will get decent sales from whatever Wii-sports blue ocean killer app they have in their sleeves and the diehard Nintendo fans, but will fail to re-capture the Wii's crazy momentum, as the Wii name is now equated to software droughts and collecting dust in the eyes of far too many.
3DS: Sales will pick up dramatically compared to 2011 and the system will have an extremely successful year, and an announcement of a proper Pokemon RPG for the system will set the on Internet on fire, but overall the system probably not get to the heights of the DS's best years as I don't know what Nintendo can do for those who say "eh, my phone provides enough on the go entertainment anymore." They will probably skew even more toward the younger audience than usual as a result.
Vita: Will have some great games and develop a tiny niche with the hardcore, but will sell like crap overall. I think it's an awesome-looking product, but when people spend that kind of money on an electronic device this year, it's going to be on a console, phone, or tablet, not on a portable gaming system. Bwomp bwomp.
PS4 and Xbox Next won't release this year, but will get announced for a 2013 release. I expect Sony to take similar stupid missteps and make far too expensive of a system, but since they undeservedly have some of the best exclusive developers around it'll be very successful with the hardcore market, or at least it will eventually.
Microsoft will expand on their family friendly Kinect stuff and do good business, but I am a bit worried about their exclusive hardcore lineup. Gears of War and Halo just don't command the same kind of excitement anymore; so I expect them to throw staggering amounts of money into a new shooter franchise and marketing for it. This next generation could be Microsoft's big stumble.
Final Fantasy and Square Enix in general will continue to disappoint, but some other developer with the marketing budget to make it happen will finally come out with a crossover JRPG hit and revitalize the genre. This one is more wishful thinking than honest prediction, but there still seems to be a demand that no one one's meeting at the moment here; that'll change sometime.
With DOTA 2 and Counter Strike GO already coming out this year, we will be without Half-Life 3 come this time next year.
The next Call of Duty will be yet another game that is basically more Call of Duty 4 levels and maps with no real innovation or forward momentum, and will still sell insanely well. That will be a little depressing.
A trailer for the next Smash Bros. will be shown at E3 and is announced as a Wii U launch title. It won't actually be a Wii U launch title.
Could you imagine getting that performance out for that cost 10 years ago? I've been a pc gamer since the early 90s and now is the best possible time to be a pc gamer. I have access to hundreds more games for a fraction of the price.
Square published Deus Ex last year.
So basically, the PS4 will have a controller with TWO screens.
And once you dock a Vita into the controller, you'll have a third screen.
Imagine an MMO a la Vindictus but you use the touchscreen to activate a spell or press Y to switch a mini menu with potions. Probably expanded versions of Phantasy Star Online II and DQ X for the Wii U would approach this. Microsoft needs to apply the Windows 8 tablet technology directly to the 720/Loop/Fusion without the need for a tablet and/or a Windows Phone. Sony needs to improve their Android tablets.
Also, I think selling consoles at a loss is bad for the industry. I'd say modest console packages (like the slim 360) are gonna be aimed for non-developed countries.
And Zune needs to expand internationally. Preferably places where Netflix doesn't have a strong grasp.
"We have years of struggle ahead, mostly within ourselves." - Made in USA
Yeah. Okay. Here's the thing. Square isn't going anywhere even when toriyama goes dead completely blind they're pretty good and diversified. The problem is JRPGs and how Japanese culture is perceived is getting a massive lashing now that the adolescent honeymoon of it is over and now we know that we adored in them was traits in us (GitS is less "eastern philosophy" and more Descartes and technoshock) and have carefully reproduced in quality and understanding of narrative and production values...well there is less an immunity to criticism.
That said I think Atlus is all set to sweep with the next big HD critical if not necessarily financial juggernaut in the jrpg sector. Persona is well WELL respected and known for started broad and in a way seen "innovative" by Western Markets while not considered stagnant or cliche or too animoo at the same time.
Skyrim may not be for me but it is a signifier if it was a decent PC rpg franchise you don't need the title bioware to sell it.
I kind of do wonder about the future of the rpg as a whole. Action games tell stories now, very effectively, or at least where they fail a switch of genres would not have saved them. Menus were always place holders for the more complex commands to type into keyboards or speak to DMs over dice. So I shouldn't resent or hate the move to using the unreal engine and PC design doing what it does best (great interactive visual environments in the fixed view) but still. The thought of EVERY future RPG, finally crobared free of fantasy and to more diverse stories and mechanics, becoming third person shooters with slightly more customization that won't scare away the that crowd worries me. Then again Fallout seems a stat nightmare and aside from grind I never truly mastered rpgs, as Atlus brand thoroughly reminds me.
In many ways the handheld focus and the retro-focus and yes PC gaming and Steam (may it ever be praised /snark) is the best thing to happen. I mean Radiant Historia is like Chrono Trigger the way it always should have been, more and more games get a second chance not beholden to the FF mold, and old but discontinued favorites are available for some besides the excessive collector.
In many ways Making every game more like Gears, Mass Effect, Dark souls, or Zelda feels RIGHT. And the genre has never had more respect and hitched to as mainstream a presence (fantasy movies seem to have at least kept a presence thanks to LotR, hobbit, Potter, and their imitators and competitors) Creating new needs and interesting examinations. We have room for Vanillaware AND Atlus AND Squeenix.
I do think however between the Red Cross and other misgivings the want for an actual diverse and complex war simulation and not just high tech paintball matches, as has been said, will get us culture ready to pounce on any FPS infirmity. This isn't a good thing as FPS represent THE FACE of gaming. Mortal Kombat knockbacks during the fighting game craze made people more cautious not wider in creativity.
I do expect a social game/mobile game though thats much more in home console as to arcade classic mold to show up causing some serious misgivings, especially if they can supply the money to revamp it to modern expectations (DQ spinoff or X itself).
RTS will rise in popularity now that more people can play them on the go and we're primed for the complex interactivity and resource management me of pokemon and farmville combined with basic war sims and such. Fuck maybe LoL beat me to it and the tablets or such will just help it rise.
Me here's what I really want.
A complete Arcade level quality ports to be the new hotness, especially things like Rolling Thunder. Remember that?
Now, admittedly I got silly and did a quick comb-over of THIS thread to see if anyone predicted anything about the PS4 directly related to E3 2012, and the closest we have is,
Probably not going to happen. I would've guessed that (not happening) before but now it seems more firmly in place. Sony has a good thing with the PS3 for the moment so they can ride it out, but if MS makes a move in 2012 or 2013 regarding their next console in any way, it's going to ruin that for Sony big time. It's going to force them to compete (Nintendo making a move by itself is no 'threat' from a business standpoint, but if it becomes a tag-team situation against Sony...). And Sony can't actually afford to, at this point. I'm not convinced they've fully recouped from the disaster of a launch and development of the PS3, and as a whole the company isn't smoking hot shit in electronics. They're pretty vulnerable right now, which when you consider how just a few years ago the PS2 was the God-king of the Earth... man. What happened.
If the PS4 was coming out within the next couple years, it would be such a thing for it. But if the 10-year-plan is actually going to be upheld, Sony has time to figure out that 3D was a fad and not a smart business move. Whether or not they follow through on that, in their arrogance, is a totally different point. If their finances are any indication, even if they wanted to, they're not going to risk it.
On one hand, it'll be advantageous for them to see what everyone else is doing so they can duplicate it better, and a later launch than everyone else means a more powerful system than everyone else. On the other, launching last won't do them any favors in terms of marketshare and devs will probably just make the lead version on WiiU or Nextbox and then port up to their console without using its extra power.
Personally I'd say the 3DS's 3D isn't a fad, but only because it's built in and doesn't require any fiddling on the part of the user (i.e. glasses). Similarly, motion control would've been a fad if Nintendo hadn't made it so integral to the Wii. There's nothing particularly special about Nintendo, it's just that when you build something into something popular, people will accept it.
But Sony really doesn't have any options for building in 3D with the PS4 - they could do a bundle with a 3D TV, but I have a feeling it wouldn't be super popular.
They could have an autostereoscopic tablet! But that doesn't help sell TVs so I wouldn't predict it.
Sony:
Sony will all but phase out the Vita 3G model by the years end due to low sales.
No early price drop.
No PS4 reveal, very vague tease by years end.
Nintendo:
3DS redesign revealed in Q3, for sale in time for holidays.
WiiU out in Q4 Japan and US, delayed to 2013 in PAL.
WiiU power equal to two xbox360s taped together.
No smash brothers, just a brief tease at E3.
Microsoft:
720 reveal at E3, but not actually released this year. Built in Kinect, split controller, increased focus on services.
720 is more powerful than WiiU, but not as large a step up in terms of power as some may expect.
Apple:
In addition to iPad 3 and iPhone 5, a console like service will be launched to play games and apps on TV or monitors. It won't have buttons.
I don't hate the Wiimote/Nunchuck thing, but it serves a very specific purpose for the games that use it. I just want a standard controller.
Achievements have become so bizarrely engrained in my mind and i hate it. There's so many wii games on my shelf I don't get to simply because playing them - with no friends to see what Im playing, no achievements to compare with folks, and no real record of what I've done with them - stay on my shelf. And I KNOW its stupid and I KNOW its wrong and I KNOW Im missing out but I just always reach for a 360 game first.
And now you can get even more Achievements and Gamerscore if you buy on 720!
Oh, while a safe guess, I'll predict the 3DS can act as additional tablets for the WiiU.
Also, despite demand, the WiiU tablet will not have a capacitive touch screen.
i still think they'll use the current kinect hardware (especially after releasing the windows version which works better up-close) and just update it via the nextbox's capabilities and being built with the kinect in mind.
also expect a much larger push of kinect games once the nextbox hits.
Hell the lure of Achievements and Xbox Live something something is about enough to sell me on a Windows mobile!
Naturally a NEW ONE will be made for the coming year and the other next gen releases.