Republican Debates: Round 4

Elki · June 2007

Location: Des Moines, Iowa

Network: (Totally lost, and have no idea. Help?)

Time: June 30

Candidates: (Whittled down)

Mitt Romney
Sam Brownback
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
Tommy Thompson
Tom Tancredo

Notable absences:

Rudy Giuliani
John McCain
Ron Paul (not invited - won't really miss him)

Moderator: ?

Webstream: ?

3lwap0 · June 2007

Ron Paul will bust the doors down in this debate, stalk in bare chested covered in sweat, and gun his opposition down with a M60 machine gun.

At least that's the word on the street.

Edit:

Current speaking order (as of 6/19/2007):
1:30pm Honorable Tommy Thompson
2:05pm Governor Mike Huckabee
2:40pm Senator Sam Brownback
3:15pm Governor Mitt Romney
3:50pm Congressman Tom Tancredo
4:25pm Congressman Duncan Hunter

They will have a debate August 5 which will air on ABC News, This Week from Iowa (ABC News says all candidates will be included that wish to participate)

Still no names or anything yet. No idea who's hosting.

Elki · June 2007

Any of you know where this will be televised? The Google gives me nothing.

Irond Will · June 2007

Is this the same thing as the Iowa Straw Poll? I keep hearing about this but still don't know what it means.

Veegeezee · June 2007

The Wiki's got nothing either.

The sponsors' websites are pretty spartan, too...

Iowa Christian Alliance
Iowans for Tax Relief

Elki · June 2007

From some guy on Yahoo! Answers

They are having a debate (actually more of a forum) in Iowa June 30, but I have no information as to when or if it will be televised (Rudy Guiliani, John McCain and Governor Jim Gilmore are not participating by choice, and Ron Paul has been excluded).
Current speaking order (as of 6/19/2007):
1:30pm Honorable Tommy Thompson
2:05pm Governor Mike Huckabee
2:40pm Senator Sam Brownback
3:15pm Governor Mitt Romney
3:50pm Congressman Tom Tancredo
4:25pm Congressman Duncan Hunter

Not very standard, but I'm not sure how reliable that guy is.

Duki · June 2007

This the straw poll thing? Or am I confused as to what I am talking about.

Elki · June 2007

Fuck if I know. This is all very confusing.

moniker · June 2007

Where were you when the Dems had that debate on PBS a couple days ago? I didn't hear word one about it until the post game coverage showing shitty clips and shit eating grins. Grar.

Elki · June 2007

I know, I know. I'm filled with shame.

Gorak · June 2007

Elkamil wrote: »

I know, I know. I'm filled with shame.

Count yourself lucky. I'm filled with beer and semen.

nexuscrawler · June 2007

Gualiani's absences screams that his campaign is on it's way down. They're starting to take the stay out of the public eye becasue he'll just make an ass of himself approach.

Elki · June 2007

So I guess this won't be on TV? Bummer.

Alexan Drite · June 2007

nexuscrawler wrote: »

Gualiani's absences screams that his campaign is on it's way down. They're starting to take the stay out of the public eye becasue he'll just make an ass of himself approach.

Yes because you have any clue what this "debate" is. While there are valid reasons as to why Giuliani is a failed campaign, including his belief he can ignore Iowa... this is not one of them

It's just a rally put together by the Tax Relief and Christian Alliance to discuss various tax policies and reforms. Probably someone will mention the fair tax and another will mention the flat tax, and maybe someone will do something about employment taxes.

It's more like a rally then a debate, and is about working up issues Iowans might care about other then vague anti-Hillary or security issues.

Now the interesting thing is how the media might possibly approach this if there was nothing else happening today and if Saturday news mattered... they might take the spin that Ron Paul is hosting a rally across the street, at the same time, and that he was excluded for arbitrary reasons. "Ooh dissension in the Republican Party" or "infighting over something stupid and making the Repulicans look stupid, though it doesn't matter anyways since none of them will win, and if we have our way, none of them will have any impact at all in terms of bringing viable change to the Republican party."

I'm filled with Generic rage at the moment. Let's just skip to when the Democrats win in 2008 so we can get it all over with.

Alexan Drite · July 2007

So here's the outcome of the event.
About 500-600 people showed up to the ICA/Tax thing and it was mostly quiet and sucked.

Ron Paul held a rally at the same time in the same building because he wasn't invited. He offered free food, and possibly because of that, or because he's such an awesome guy (You decide 2008!), he drew a crowd of either 600-700 or 1000 depending on who says it. So, he at least drew a crowd equally as large as the other 6 candidates there combined.

Youtube has some videos. This man has Paul's entire speech and event.

I doubt there are videos for the other event, given that Paul's campaign is much more technologically organized and dedicated to such things. If anyone finds some feel free to post them.

I think this resulted in absolutely nothing, but then again, it probably did play a big role in about 1200-1500 Iowan Republican voters who are fairly into the race at the moment. Assume each person that went to the rally in Iowa represents maybe 2 or 3 others who might act similarly, and well... that might be a shift?
Ever since Giulliani dropped out of Iowa it's pretty much been assumed McCain or Romney will storm it and win a hollow victory. If a second tier candidate like Paul beats (or is very close) to Romney, if McCain implodes, if a variety of other things happen... it could mean that this race isn't over yet.
That it really begins in January and that all this media hub-bub is ignoring the more important movements and issues in the campaign.

That leaves Thomson. He's a wild card.
So pretty much nothing significant happened and we're left just as confused as ever.

Edit; I completely forgot and I wanted to post this:
http://www.positivepress.com/president/survey.cgi
One of the first mini-surveys is out.
Me:
First Paul
In distant second Dennis_Kucinich with 2
Then a 0 with Giulliani. After that it's negatives.

nexuscrawler · July 2007

Yes tax policy. Gualinai probably isn't showing cuz he can't yell about 9/11 to that topic.

Alexan Drite · July 2007

Or more likely because he wasn't invited due to his non-existent Iowa campaign, which is a specific campaign strategy he's planned out.

Duki · July 2007

I don't know about not going to straw polls in Iowa being the end of Rudy's campaign. If I remember correctly, Reagan didn't show up to a single one of them in 1980 and everybody jumped on the Bush bandwagon. Reagan ended up kicking his ass anyway. I don't know if that has more to do with how good Reagan was and how ehhhh Bush was, but I wouldn't say Rudy is doomed quite yet.

Also, 9/11. I get the feeling the 9/11 thing works. Like, pretty well.

nexuscrawler · July 2007

If his campaign in Iowa is dead isn't thast a pretty bad sign for his primary chances? You know since Iowa is a key state

Ant000 · July 2007

So is this a private debate or? I mean does not getting invited to this mean Ron Paul is officially done as a republican? What's the story with that? Not that I expected him to win, but I expected him to go until the primaries were over.

Gosling · July 2007

I think the fact that Paul hijacked the whole thing and drew as many people to what wound up a campaign rally, as all the other candidates drew combined, shows he's not exactly ready to bow out yet.

Alexan Drite · July 2007

nexuscrawler wrote: »

If his campaign in Iowa is dead isn't thast a pretty bad sign for his primary chances? You know since Iowa is a key state

It's a strategic move. Basically you have a situation where to win, (Iowa) you have to spend an enormous amount of money and time to win. McCain and Romney have dedicated a lot of their resources to win Iowa, since if you win three in a row you win the game. So rather then try to compete against that, or better yet, compete against them and lose, some candidates are just going to skip Iowa. That way if McCain or Romney wins it's a hollow victory. "Oh you only won because such and such wasn't trying there." Which is why McCain dropped out of Iowa.

Buchanan wrote:

See Rudy and John Run
posted by Linda

by Patrick J. Buchanan

In July 1861, the Union Army marched out of the capital to meet the Confederates forming up at Manassas. Washingtonians packed picnic lunches and followed to enjoy the rebel rout.

By nightfall, the Union Army was straggling back to the city. Stunned and panicked spectators had already returned to report the defeat of Gen. McDowellâ€™s forces. What the First Battle of Bull Run meant was that the rebels were stronger and tougher than anticipated, and Mr. Lincolnâ€™s war was not going to be easy or short.

In Republican presidential politics, the Iowa straw poll, held the August before the January caucuses, serves the role of Bull Run. It is the first major skirmish of the presidential season and registers the appeal of a candidate to the nationâ€™s first voters, the strength of his organization and the extent of his financial resources.

Thus, it is a stunning development that Rudy Giuliani, then John McCain just pulled out of the Iowa straw poll on Aug. 11.

What seems to have happened is this.

Having spent less time in Iowa than McCain or Mitt Romney, with an organization regarded as feeble compared to theirs, Rudy feared a crushing defeat on Aug. 11 that would have destroyed his aura as front-runner. Rather than be humiliated, he elected to forfeit the game.

That left McCain nothing to gain on Aug. 11, but a lot to lose. Now, he could not claim to have defeated Rudy, his main rival, but he would risk an embarrassing loss to Romney, who leads in many Iowa polls and whose organization is said to be the strongest in the state.

Bottom line: Mitt Romney is now the favorite to win the Iowa Caucuses in January, eight days before New Hampshire.

And recall: John Kerryâ€™s three-point victory in Iowa in 2004 propelled him to victory in New Hampshire and virtually every other primary save South Carolina and Oklahoma.

There is a real question today whether Rudy, whose liberal stance on gay rights and right-to-life is anathema to most Iowa Republicans, will even play in the caucuses. Why risk a deathblow to his candidacy in what may be one of Rudyâ€™s weakest states?

McCain has to consider whether he, too, wants to risk a defeat there in January, which could be fatal to his candidacy, or whether he is not better advised to await Romney in New Hampshire, the way he did George W. Bush in 2000, when McCain Ã¢â‚¬â€œ wisely, it turned out Ã¢â‚¬â€œ ducked Iowa altogether.

The withdrawal of Rudy and McCain not only dims their luster, it puts pressure on Romney to run up the score on Aug. 11 and show intimidating strength. And it presents an opening for a second-tier candidate Ã¢â‚¬â€œ former Govs. Mike Huckabee, Tommy Thompson and Jim Gilmore, Reps. Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo and Ron Paul, and Sen. Sam Brownback Ã¢â‚¬â€œ to break out of the pack.

Whoever now runs second to Romney in the straw poll Ã¢â‚¬â€œ especially if he can put distance between himself and No. 3 Ã¢â‚¬â€œ will begin to attract attention from the media and see his contributions increase.

The McCain-Giuliani cop-out will cause Fred Thompson to review his strategy. Wisely, he has passed up the straw poll. This would have cost him hundreds of thousands of campaign cash for a tent, tickets, food and buses at the all-day affair in Ames, and availed him nothing. For his late entry would have precluded a first- or second-place finish.

Thompson now has to ask himself whether he should even go to Iowa Ã¢â‚¬â€œ or do as McCain did in 2000, skip the state and take his stand in New Hampshire.

Writing off Iowa makes sense for Thompson. For it is hard to see how he could make up for the lost six months he has already ceded to the other candidates in organizing the state. Most Iowa political activists have already committed to other candidates.

The same would hold true for Newt Gingrich, should he decide to run, which appears unlikely now that Fred Thompson has moved into the vacuum left by conservative dissatisfaction with the front-runners. But should Newt get in, it would make no sense for him to go to Iowa and play against a deck that seems stacked for Romney. Better to wait for New Hampshire.

Neither the Iowa straw poll nor the caucuses are necessarily decisive. Sen. Phil Gramm won the straw poll in 1996. George H.W. Bush defeated Ronald Reagan in the caucuses of 1980.

But the Iowa Caucuses have always been important, and often crucial.

Jimmy Carterâ€™s victory led to the nomination in 1976. Kerryâ€™s victory led to the nomination. George W. Bushâ€™s smashing victory in the Iowa straw poll of 1999 and follow-on triumph in the caucuses propelled him through defeat in New Hampshire to the White House.

Mitt Romney has been robbed of a triumph over his two main rivals on Aug. 11. They evaded the trap he had set. But in running Rudy and John out of Ames, Romney has shown real strength, and must now be the favorite to take Iowa in January and probably is the man to beat in New Hampshire.

Politics is a game you have to play to win. Sometimes you need to lose a battle to win the war.

EmperorSeth · July 2007

Alexan Drite wrote: »

nexuscrawler wrote: »

If his campaign in Iowa is dead isn't thast a pretty bad sign for his primary chances? You know since Iowa is a key state

It's a strategic move. Basically you have a situation where to win, (Iowa) you have to spend an enormous amount of money and time to win. McCain and Romney have dedicated a lot of their resources to win Iowa, since if you win three in a row you win the game. So rather then try to compete against that, or better yet, compete against them and lose, some candidates are just going to skip Iowa. That way if McCain or Romney wins it's a hollow victory. "Oh you only won because such and such wasn't trying there." Which is why McCain dropped out of Iowa.

Politics is a game you have to play to win. Sometimes you need to lose a battle to win the war.

Didn't Clinton drop Iowa as well? Now that Obama's beating her in donations (I think, based on what I heard so far,) if not in the polls, that could be telling.

imbalanced · July 2007

Sooooo, this debate went completely under the media radar. I don't think pretty much anyone covered it other than local news stations in Iowa. Kinda sad, if it doesn't have Giuliani or McCain, it's apparently not worth listening to. No web stream I don't think. I had to scour the blogs to find any sort of writeup whatsoever, which is very disheartening. I'm just going to rip the highlight from the blog and then link it. Oh and apparently Ron Paul gathered all his Democrat supporters outside the debate. *shrugs*

http://cycloneconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/07/hy-vee-hall-icaitr-forum-ron-paul.html

Mike Huckabee: The Style Winner
Wow. Can this man speak or what? He is by far one of the most talented public speakers to walk the planet. He received a gigantic applause and people were literally running up to him afterwards to get pictures and autographs. He answered every question exactly how the architects wanted. I noticed that many people around me were crying after he finished. If Mike Huckabee had the kind of money that Mitt Romney/Barack Obama/Hillary Clinton had, he would be running away with this nominaton and it wouldn't even be close. However, there are still lots of people that are still learning about Huckabee. I cannot even envision a scenario where anybody could even remotely have a negative vibe about this guy. This was, in my opinion, one of the greatest speeches I've ever heard. I could have listened to him all day. He makes it look easy.

Tom Tancredo: The Substance Winner
I didn't think anybody would be able to top Huckabee's post-speech reaction and then Tom Tancredo got up there and gave an incredibly well written speech. Tancredo needs to work on delivery but on speech content, he lit up the room. I don't know if the Congressman wrote that speech himself or whether someone wrote it for him, but it was beautiful. His statement about the conservative movement needing a leader and not an adjective was wonderful. He answered absolutely every question just as the men asking them wanted them too and he finished his speech with force. As soon as he was done, the crowd roared to its feet with a very loud and very rambunctious applause. I think it was so loud and so universal that even the Congressman was surprised. However, he got going reading his speech so fast that it seemed a little rushed. I think the Congressman sometimes forgets that he isn't speaking on the floor of the United States House of Representatives. The immigration issue really has struck home with the American people and there are very few people in this country who have more leadership credibility on the issue. This issue has certainly really put the Congressman on the map and I believe it has given him a lot of momentum. He just needs to capitalize on it, which I think he is moving towards doing. I plan on watching this speech again if I can find it on the Internet somewhere.

Mitt Romney: Looking Presidential, Sounding Nuanced Sometimes
Mitt Romney's campaign is impressive and Mitt is an impressive man, but sometimes I think he is too slick of a politician. I really do like the fact that he emphasizes his family a lot in events and brought his son and wife out onto stage before hand. Ann is a very lovely woman and definitely looks as though she could be a first lady. I just wish Mitt could accompany his charisma, nice family, good looks, Presidential speaking ability, and nice suits with a correctly tied tie. Once again, his tie makes him look sloppy and amateurish. Mitt Romney needs to take a lesson from Sam Brownback. All wardrobe malfunctions aside, Mitt's remarks centered around the same optimistic smaller government outlook that has made him the front-runner here in Iowa. He's a very talented public speaker and has an ability to command an audience. I was terrifically disappointed, however, that Governor Romney failed to answer the Fair Tax question. His response was that his staff had not had a chance to look at the issue enough. To me, that is a terrible response. Apparently, these questions were given to the candidates/campaigns with atleast two weeks notice and when the best answer you can give is that you haven't had your people tell you about the issue yet, then I think it seems very unprofessional and very unprepared. It was one of those nuanced statements that made it seem like he could be for it but also that he could be against it, but we wouldn't be able to know until later. It left it open for him to take a position later. That's a good political move to make, but at the same time, it also seemed weak and undecisive. Definitely not good traits in a leader. I was sorely disappointed in that answer. However, the Governor did himself more good than harm. There's no question about that. He's also definitely the front-runner because just about every other candidate took swipes at him and his position changes over the years.

Tommy Thompson: Needs to Make Sure Passion Doesn't Get Perceived As Anger
I just love Tommy Thompson. How can you not like that guy? He's definitely one of the most intelligent people, from a policy and solution perspective, however, his style sometimes can get confused for perceived anger. Tommy was the first candidate to speak and I think they tweaked the sound system as the event got going, but when Tommy first started speaking, I think his delivery sounded more angry than passionate. He also uses "Ladies and Gentlemen" very regularly and it becomes like a distracting colloqialism. If Tommy were being judged by me in a speech contest (I am a certified speech judge, by the way), I would nail him on this. However, you also have to take into account the fact that Tommy is a very affable, very folksy guy. He also answered all the questions just like the groups would have wanted him to. Tommy is also planning to have over 100 events in the month of July and so Iowans will have an incredible opportunity to see him in the coming months. I'm excited about that because I definitely do like Tommy and enjoy hearing him as often as possible. He has made it clear that it's Iowa or bust and so the next 6 weeks, Tommy is going to be putting the pedal to the metal.

Sam Brownback: Best Speech I've Ever Heard Him Give
I've seen Senator Brownback more than any other candidate and Saturday's event was the absolute best I've ever seen of him. He was really on his game. Sam's style is not terribly electrifying, but it is constant and consistent. He has accomplished a lot in his career in public life so far and he has a good record to show for it. He also ties his tie better than any candidate too. The Senator answered all the questions exactly as the men expected him to; however, he offered up an alternative to the Fair Tax which is the Flat Tax. I respect the Senator for offering his alternative in an environment where disagreeing may not have been the popular thing to do. The Senator is also coming out with his new book this week and we'll be promoting that at campaigns in the coming weeks. Brownback has made it clear, like Thompson, that Iowa is his key to victory and so he'll be making a gigantic push. Brownback is a very compelling candidate and does a good job using props to help drive home his points of view. He carries around pieces of carpet made out of corn and enjoys holding up the heavy books which encompass the tax code to highlight just how ridiculous it is. Brownback lacks the overall charisma of Huckabee, which is his biggest competitor, but Brownback also has a good campaign on the ground here in Iowa so he might be in a position to break out on August 11.

Duncan Hunter: I'm Tough, Don't Mess With Me
Congressman Hunter just exudes toughness. He looks tough and he talks tough. He received very high applause for his remarks on the war on terrorism and about immigration. Even Congressman Tancredo gave him high praise during his remarks. Hunter definitely has a long record of conservative appeal to stand upon. He definitely bucks a lot of the party on trade issues but he does bring up a lot of points on the issue too. His 'arsenal of democracy' is a very compelling idea. On a personal note, I had a chance to talk to the Congressman outside the building by the street after the event. I've met him several times and have always been impressed by him. I was even more impressed when he walked up to me, called me by my first name, and urged me to continue to get college students involved in the Republican cause. I gave him my card and invited him to as many campuses as possible and he definitely said he wanted to do that as he accurately notes that the Republican Party needs to continue to develop new leaders and a deeper bench of individuals to step up the plate. Duncan doesn't seem to be making a huge push to do well at the Straw Poll, but his presence in the race is very necessary. When he talks about his son and his father, you cannot help but respect his love for this country.

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