I'm just going to throw out that my secret, which turned out to be a vig kill, was wasted on someone the mafia killed. If I was mafia, I wouldn't have done that.
I'm going with Anialos based on the analysis provided by spool.
That's a fair point. Unlikely that the mafia would double up on targets, even if they were unsure what the secret would do. Not really feeling the Anialos wagon, so I'll move back over to my initial suspicion of Tzeentchling
Its been a while since I've seen defenestration in a phalla.
Where did sportz try and infiltrate the network?? In a pm?
This was in relation to an exchange that was occurring very early in the day with kime where he subtly added a "me too" into it after kime asked Infidel to get in touch. It was subtle, but I took it as his way of saying "let me in the network" without his being confirmed. Will quote shortly...
This is pretty weak IMO.
A) any infiltration would be done in PM ... and definitely NOT in the thread. That would just be all kinds of stupid to expect a PM from posting in the thread.
I'm not sure why you think that Kime would ever be bad enough to let an unconfirmed person in on information about the rest of the network. His contact point would be through Kime and if Kime died... sportz would get cut off to everyone that wasn't publicly a member of the network.
I'm not sure why there is a major stressing of this idea of a possible network infiltration... its just... silly
EDIT: ignore the above. I see your recent edit REG. I guess we both agree this is pretty much a non-issue right now.
Mafia wouldn't use one-shot powers blindly.
Mafia also wouldn't use a public seering on a green.
=> Anialos is a bad vote.
My good lad, only part of what you said here is true. I agree, the mafia probably would not attempt to blindly use one time abilities without finding out what they do first. But what makes you say that they wouldn't use a public seer on someone not of their own? You are proposing the alternative that they would use a public seer on themselves?
Furthermore, the Anialos vote is certainly not a 'bad' vote. It is not a 'good' vote, but it is by no means 'bad'. The first use of the secret is irrelevant in terms of trying to predict mafia behavior; they had just as much reason to figure it out as we did.
Either way, I'm not convinced to vote Anialos, we shall see what the day brings us.
Specifically, they wouldn't use it on a green, but you're right, that's really a corollary to the above point that I failed to mention.
By "bad," in reference to votes, I mean worse than average, while by "good," I mean better than average. By my definitions, a vote can only be neither good nor bad if it is exactly average, and seeing as how we have game mechanic information today, that has probability 0. I contend that it's a bad vote. You are free to disagree.
Specifically, they wouldn't use it on a green, but you're right, that's really a corollary to the above point that I failed to mention.
By "bad," in reference to votes, I mean worse than average, while by "good," I mean better than average. By my definitions, a vote can only be neither good nor bad if it is exactly average, and seeing as how we have game mechanic information today, that has probability 0. I contend that it's a bad vote. You are free to disagree.
The mafia wouldn't KNOWINGLY use a public seer. But I feel like if they are the "producers" than they would have known thematically what each secret type did.
But if they knew what the ability did... I can't see any reason why they would want the village to have a guaranteed person to coordinate all their actions with in a game where there is definitely a guard. That guarantees the village enough inertia to get a network going for the entire game. That would be terrible game theory.
IF Anialos is mafia, I would maintain that they had NO idea the ability was a public seer OR they already knew that the ability would reveal the person who used it (and hoped somehow that anialos would be able to hide in plain site or somehow take over for kime in the event of his death... but since they didn't even try to kill kime last night I find that unlikely)
There is just too many logical leaps you have to go through to arrive at the conclusion that anialos is a good candidate for the village vote today over others who are more suspicious.
Hell, I think a vote for an RNG of the bottom 10 lowest post count players is a better vote than a vote for Anialos!
also i'm going out on a limb here to say that a lot of us didnt even know how to use secrets day 1
and that possibly the only ones who did actually know how the mechanic worked were the mafia, that is sending in a pm to the host with a target and your secret
which would make whoever used a kill on day 1 mafia as well as whoever used the seering
but of course this is hard to say cause i'm not sure how many people actually knew what was going on at the time but I do recall a lot of posts saying they never understood that secret mechanic till it happened.
which is funny since both mill and anialos are up for votes
I mean... I didn't know that you could specify a target for your ability. As I stated earlier though, I wouldn't have used my ability day 1 anyway. I like to save a OPG ability for a time when it actually helps... as it turns out kime being publically seered was a pretty awesome thing for us, so my argument of not using OPG powers Day 1 is slightly invalidated.
I digress though...
I'm sure that you could have clarified with the host via PM how to use your secret if you were really dead set on using it. I just wasn't ... so I didn't bother to get the clarification.
well I thought I had a secret and I would figure out what it did as the game went on, I actually didnt know I could use it as a power so thats why I still have mine
and that was why I was simply guessing that maybe mafia knew a bit more and ended up using theirs to test out secrets give them an edge day 1
EDIT: enlightenedbum switched his vote right before I posted, fixed
EDIT2: Somehow missed Shalmelo switching vote to Tzeentchling, fixed that
EDIT3: This is why I'm not a reliable spreadsheeter. Thanks Bluecyan
I'm torn between Mill, Anialos, and Tzeentchling now. There's been some great analysis going on. Going to put a vote out on Tzeentchling for now because that's the least bandwagony of the 3.
Posts
hint hint
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The Black Hole of Cygnus X-1
Does that help?
The Black Hole of Cygnus X-1
That's a fair point. Unlikely that the mafia would double up on targets, even if they were unsure what the secret would do. Not really feeling the Anialos wagon, so I'll move back over to my initial suspicion of Tzeentchling
EDIT - Never mind, I see I misinterpreted the "me too". My bad sportz!
The mafia now also knows what the village knows.
Mafia can learn from the village wasting their secrets. No need to use their own.
Soooo much
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Psssst. This kind of question would best be taken in PM conversation... you know... game theory and all
Indeed, to your edit.
And for the record, "I am a tautology" was, in fact, the secret in the narration and what sportz told me his was. We both just guessed wrongly.
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I'm an open kinda guy.
Once again, kidding...
I also trust kime to be pretty smart about things like this.
The Black Hole of Cygnus X-1
This is pretty weak IMO.
A) any infiltration would be done in PM ... and definitely NOT in the thread. That would just be all kinds of stupid to expect a PM from posting in the thread.
I'm not sure why there is a major stressing of this idea of a possible network infiltration... its just... silly
EDIT: ignore the above. I see your recent edit REG. I guess we both agree this is pretty much a non-issue right now.
wheeeeeeeeeee
No problem.
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I'm terrible?
My good lad, only part of what you said here is true. I agree, the mafia probably would not attempt to blindly use one time abilities without finding out what they do first. But what makes you say that they wouldn't use a public seer on someone not of their own? You are proposing the alternative that they would use a public seer on themselves?
Furthermore, the Anialos vote is certainly not a 'bad' vote. It is not a 'good' vote, but it is by no means 'bad'. The first use of the secret is irrelevant in terms of trying to predict mafia behavior; they had just as much reason to figure it out as we did.
Either way, I'm not convinced to vote Anialos, we shall see what the day brings us.
Specifically, they wouldn't use it on a green, but you're right, that's really a corollary to the above point that I failed to mention.
By "bad," in reference to votes, I mean worse than average, while by "good," I mean better than average. By my definitions, a vote can only be neither good nor bad if it is exactly average, and seeing as how we have game mechanic information today, that has probability 0. I contend that it's a bad vote. You are free to disagree.
The mafia wouldn't KNOWINGLY use a public seer. But I feel like if they are the "producers" than they would have known thematically what each secret type did.
But if they knew what the ability did... I can't see any reason why they would want the village to have a guaranteed person to coordinate all their actions with in a game where there is definitely a guard. That guarantees the village enough inertia to get a network going for the entire game. That would be terrible game theory.
IF Anialos is mafia, I would maintain that they had NO idea the ability was a public seer OR they already knew that the ability would reveal the person who used it (and hoped somehow that anialos would be able to hide in plain site or somehow take over for kime in the event of his death... but since they didn't even try to kill kime last night I find that unlikely)
There is just too many logical leaps you have to go through to arrive at the conclusion that anialos is a good candidate for the village vote today over others who are more suspicious.
Hell, I think a vote for an RNG of the bottom 10 lowest post count players is a better vote than a vote for Anialos!
also they aren't producers, they are people picked by the producers
Steam
That minute detail might make the world of difference in what is thematically relevant
and that possibly the only ones who did actually know how the mechanic worked were the mafia, that is sending in a pm to the host with a target and your secret
which would make whoever used a kill on day 1 mafia as well as whoever used the seering
but of course this is hard to say cause i'm not sure how many people actually knew what was going on at the time but I do recall a lot of posts saying they never understood that secret mechanic till it happened.
which is funny since both mill and anialos are up for votes
Steam
I digress though...
I'm sure that you could have clarified with the host via PM how to use your secret if you were really dead set on using it. I just wasn't ... so I didn't bother to get the clarification.
and that was why I was simply guessing that maybe mafia knew a bit more and ended up using theirs to test out secrets give them an edge day 1
Steam
Steam
You had to post this right when I went home to take a nap. Here's what I have:
Anialos: 6 (Alegis, spool32, The Anonymous, Diorinix, Cayrus, Mill)
Mill: 5 (anialos, vagrant_winds, INANTP, tzeentchling, kilnaga)
Lucedes: 2 (MrTLicious, stever777)
Bluecyan: 2 (Orange Soda, adventfalls)
Tzeentchling: 2 (enlightenedbum, shalmelo)
TrueNeverborn: 2 (romanqwerty, Smoove Operator)
adventfalls: 2 (The Ender, Bluecyan)
REG Rysk: 1 (Lucedes)
Psolms: 1 (TrueNeverborn)
The Ender: 1 (TheRoadVirus)
sportzboytjw: 1 (REG Rysk)
Zandracon: 1 (Megafrost)
Warban: 1 (M.D.)
Kime: 1 (kime)
EDIT: enlightenedbum switched his vote right before I posted, fixed
EDIT2: Somehow missed Shalmelo switching vote to Tzeentchling, fixed that
EDIT3: This is why I'm not a reliable spreadsheeter. Thanks Bluecyan
- Terence McKenna
Mill: 5 (Anialos, vagrant_winds, Kilnaga, INANTP, tzeentchling)
Bluecyan: 2 (Orange Soda, adventfalls)
TrueNeverborn: 2 (romanqwerty, Smoove Operator)
Lucedes: 2 (MrTLicious, stever777)
Tzeentchling 2 (shalmelo, enlightenedbum)
Adventfalls: 2 (The Ender, Bluecyan)
REG Rysk: 1 (Lucedes)
Warban: 1 (M.D.)
Psolms: 1 (TrueNeverborn)
The Ender: 1 (TheRoadVirus)
sportz: 1 (REG Rysk)
Zandracon: 1 (Megafrost)
kime: 1 (kime)
Sorry !Anialos buddy but I have my reasons.
SPEECH : A method of audio communication. The most complex forms of SPEECH are constructed by HOMO SAPIENS.
Crumple Zones: 0
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7 Anialos
4 Mill
Paying attention to the votes so far. Lalalalalalalala.
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Back in the olden days we actually had a button for colours so typos like that didn't happen.
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That is because you are bad at game theory.