Delmain was more aware than most of his villager friends. He was aware that Sir Fabulous was definitely a threat to the whole town, so he followed him down to the Lagoon. Too bad Delmain was also not the stealthiest of villagers. Sir Fabulous saw him near the woods, before they got to the Lagoon, and strangled the life out of him.
Sir Fabulous wondered out to the Lagoon, in his slow manner. Maybe he could find the little girl he had hurt earlier. Maybe he could make her better. He wished he were dead, not her. A crowd of torch-wielding villagers made sure he got his wish. Later, just to make sure, a fishy creature ate the remains. Mmm. Twice-dead flesh.
Matev was not so sure the villagers were doing the right thing. Didn't these beings have a right to live, a right to try to exist? His expression must have given him away at the killing near the Lagoon, for after the group killed the Monster, Matev was pitchforked by someone he thought was a friend.
Koan was happy with the kills made today. At least, he thought he was. Suddenly, a strange feeling came over him, as a shadow passed nearby. Death was the only answer. He knew it now. He saw it all clearly for the first time. His pistol in hand, he pulled the trigger and found the answer.
Kaplar saw the whole incident with Koan. He also saw the shadowy figure passing near. He followed him and decided he would try to find out who, or what, it was. As he approached it, the figure turned and gazed directly into Kaplar's eyes. He couldn't look away or move. That was all that was needed for the figure to feed on Kaplar's life-essence.
Sir Fabulous - The Frankenstein Monster, a guard - Beaten By Villagers & Became Fish Food Delmain - Seer - Strangled Matev - Villager - Killed By a Villager Koan - Vig - Killed Self Kaplar - Vig - Blood Drained
Ok, we can officially say the mafia have a busdriver. No way the vig killed himself.
Well yes, but that was kind of already known. I'm more concerned by the other two special kills.
It was a terrible night, no doubt about it. However, I do see two more vigs died. It seems there are regenerating roles, so maybe we can still pull this out.
Alright added Assuran to the vote, pretty sure he came in somewhere in the middle. I can move to the exact spot if needed. Probably safe to say that mafia has at least one person on the Mr. Fab wagon.
Village roles that we know are still out there assuming they all regenerate like the vig:
Mason partner
Roleblocker
Seer
Vig
Vig
We also have the SK.
There is likely a guard still out there, though with a mafia busdriver, maybe stever just thought "fuck it, the guard is useless anyway" and didn't include one. But since there's pretty much always a guard, let's say for now that there is one.
This leaves 3 people, one of which is me. Somehow I've managed to make it through both this phalla and 1984 without getting an ability.
I would be surprised if Dr. Frankenstein were not some kind of entity in this game but there's been no mention of him in narration.
There might be a way to leverage the fact that pretty much the entire village are currently specials, but I have yet to think of it. We could try rolecalling to ensure that vigs don't get voted out so that their kills are useful but I (or someone) will need to play out some scenarios to see if that's a terrible idea.
Roleblocker gets reset, but has no one to tell because Koan hasn't actually called a kill, so they are skeptical. Mafia claim to be a roleblocker to koan. Koan lets them into the network because they are the only roleblocker claim and they know that specials are getting reset.
0
warbanWho the Hoof do you think we are?Registered Userregular
If we could just hit the damn bus driver, this would be much better odds for the village. The bus driver hoses things up for us. The mafia had a guard, so I'd think we'd have one as well. There is no way for the mafia to kill everyone, not even if they use the bus driver to drive a vig kill onto someone. They also don't have a guard, so any of them claiming vig would probably be voted out the next day when their kill doesn't show up.
From what I'm seeing, the mafia has one killer (vampire), bus driver (I'll laugh if the name is Igor) and a group kill. The remaining one is either role blocker or action, I'm leaning towards action seer given regenerating roles and a bus driver being present.
I'm not sure why they would need an action seer, especially with regenerating roles. You can seer someone as not having an ability, and then suddenly they have one.
Regenerating roles is pretty darn powerful, so that's why the mafia have a busdriver, and my guess on that 6th man is a thrall.
We could have a thrall, I'm pretty sure Dr. Frankenstein or Igor could fill that in if they are present in the game. Granted there may not be thralls and the mafia got lucky with their bus driver on day one, hit village target with one of their own, seer looks at their guy, who comes up green. Seer vouches for bus driven mafia and the network lets the guy in.
Edit: actually thrall might make good sense here.
So going with that assumption.
1. Mafia Hitman (wolfman)
2. Mafia Hitman (vampire)
3. Vote Manipulator (Bride of Frankenstein's Monster)
4. Guard (Frankenstein's Monster)
5. Bus driver (Igor?)
6. Thrall (Frankenstein?)
Usually bus driver seer results also tell you that your target was changed, i.e. you and I are busdriven and the seer targets you, they get a message saying "MrT is a villager."
But yes, that's another possibility. But honestly I think that the mafia would be a bit underpowered if the only abnormal ability they had was a busdriver considering that we have regenerating vigs. Though this is all just speculation.
With 6 kills a night, we have 2 nights to kill 3 mafia and an SK. This means we can only afford 1 miss per night.
I think the vigs have to come forward. Hiding them from the mafia is pointless as they will regenerate, and what we really need is for their kills to go off and hit something bad. This also gives us a better chance of getting a vote target correct and forces the mafia into a dilemma.
The mafia will not also claim to be a vig. Why? Because that screws them over tomorrow night as they have 2 options. 1: kill the vigs and out the remaining vig claimer as mafia. 2: don't kill the vigs and have their called kills announced correctly, outing the remaining vig claimer.
Assuming only 2 come forward, the mason and other specials can then reveal to the vigs, and give them a much better chance of hitting something evil. It's hard to think through whether or not the mafia will be willing to chance on claiming one of the special roles, but I don't think they will:
What is the village's response to a double claim? My response would be to have the vigs aim at the vanillager pool while the seer checks it out, which would be 50-50 evil at that point. If the seer lives, we have a guaranteed mafia member the next day. If the seer dies, then one of the vigs lived, and we're still at a 50-50 shot for either the vote or tomorrow's vig. If the mafia don't claim, then the villager pool is 4/7 evil, which is better odds for them then having all the mafia at a slightly better survival odds but putting one guy out to dry if they can't manage to hit the seer.
Tomorrow, there will be no more vanillagers. That means all mafia and the SK will need to claim a role, and give up 50-50 shots. If we (or the SK) manage to hit 2 today, then we'll have a 50-50 shot at winning tomorrow (since we get 3 kills including vote). If we manage to hit the SK or the vampire today, we might even be able to stretch out another day.
So overall, I think the probability of winning with this strategy is roughly 35% (0% with 0 hits today, 1/8 with 1 hit today, 1/2 with 2 hits today, and for sure with 3 hits today), slightly higher if the seer survives. That is, of course, if you think the number assumptions I've made are reasonable, and I think they are.
If we have actual information from the mason that he can give the vigs, that only increases our chances to have good hits today. If people have some really good vote analysis, that has the same impact, but regardless of how well we do today, I think we need to do this. If we aim blindly, we drastically lower the chances of hits that we desperately need.
I'm not sure why they would need an action seer, especially with regenerating roles. You can seer someone as not having an ability, and then suddenly they have one.
Regenerating roles is pretty darn powerful, so that's why the mafia have a busdriver, and my guess on that 6th man is a thrall.
Because even if you have to go through players more than once, it can help give you targets. It could help explain their accuracy last night.
I'm not sure why they would need an action seer, especially with regenerating roles. You can seer someone as not having an ability, and then suddenly they have one.
Regenerating roles is pretty darn powerful, so that's why the mafia have a busdriver, and my guess on that 6th man is a thrall.
Because even if you have to go through players more than once, it can help give you targets. It could help explain their accuracy last night.
It does not explain how they busdrive the vig onto himself.
Yeah, I'm not sure we have enough time to sit here and rebuilt the network. If the mafia didn't annihilate the previous network, they might be able to shed some light on who Koan's target was, that would have been very useful. It would also give the new seer a decent pool to work with if we assume that the previous network was infiltrated. I think I can get behind this idea, but I'd like to see what others have to say.
I'm not sure why they would need an action seer, especially with regenerating roles. You can seer someone as not having an ability, and then suddenly they have one.
Regenerating roles is pretty darn powerful, so that's why the mafia have a busdriver, and my guess on that 6th man is a thrall.
Because even if you have to go through players more than once, it can help give you targets. It could help explain their accuracy last night.
It does not explain how they busdrive the vig onto himself.
True. That's why I wasn't trying to explain that :P.
Three options with that. Luck with a busdriver, insider info with a busdriver, or they have the ability to directly change someone's target.
I'm not sure why they would need an action seer, especially with regenerating roles. You can seer someone as not having an ability, and then suddenly they have one.
Regenerating roles is pretty darn powerful, so that's why the mafia have a busdriver, and my guess on that 6th man is a thrall.
Because even if you have to go through players more than once, it can help give you targets. It could help explain their accuracy last night.
It does not explain how they busdrive the vig onto himself.
True. That's why I wasn't trying to explain that :P.
Three options with that. Luck with a busdriver, insider info with a busdriver, or they have the ability to directly change someone's target.
I could see a ghost being able to do that. Just like I could see Frankenstein being a survival neutral and not village aligned.
I'm not sure why they would need an action seer, especially with regenerating roles. You can seer someone as not having an ability, and then suddenly they have one.
Regenerating roles is pretty darn powerful, so that's why the mafia have a busdriver, and my guess on that 6th man is a thrall.
Because even if you have to go through players more than once, it can help give you targets. It could help explain their accuracy last night.
It does not explain how they busdrive the vig onto himself.
True. That's why I wasn't trying to explain that :P.
Three options with that. Luck with a busdriver, insider info with a busdriver, or they have the ability to directly change someone's target.
I could see a ghost being able to do that. Just like I could see Frankenstein being a survival neutral and not village aligned.
I would have thought the Dracula character would have mind control powers, I thought I mentioned this yesterday. I don't know if Stever would OP one mafia character to have both a kill and a bus driver ability though.
Alright, so I might as well come forward since I think I'm the only one with a non-regenerating role. I'm Megafrost's mason, I was going to reveal yesterday but someone beat me to it >.<
The remnants of the network are still around, and with regenerating roles we still stand a chance here, depending on how many of the roles came back.
I'll be talking to the last network members in private to see whose story more closely adds up. I'll post relevant info later. I'm off to work soon but will be checking in and mostly just reading from my phone.
Alright, so I might as well come forward since I think I'm the only one with a non-regenerating role. I'm Megafrost's mason, I was going to reveal yesterday but someone beat me to it >.<
The remnants of the network are still around, and with regenerating roles we still stand a chance here, depending on how many of the roles came back.
I'll be talking to the last network members in private to see whose story more closely adds up. I'll post relevant info later. I'm off to work soon but will be checking in and mostly just reading from my phone.
Everyone, we KNOW this role exists. Give it another five hours or so, then trust Cythraul completely
Posts
...in alternate timelines where I am a vig in this game.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Sir Fabulous wondered out to the Lagoon, in his slow manner. Maybe he could find the little girl he had hurt earlier. Maybe he could make her better. He wished he were dead, not her. A crowd of torch-wielding villagers made sure he got his wish. Later, just to make sure, a fishy creature ate the remains. Mmm. Twice-dead flesh.
Matev was not so sure the villagers were doing the right thing. Didn't these beings have a right to live, a right to try to exist? His expression must have given him away at the killing near the Lagoon, for after the group killed the Monster, Matev was pitchforked by someone he thought was a friend.
Koan was happy with the kills made today. At least, he thought he was. Suddenly, a strange feeling came over him, as a shadow passed nearby. Death was the only answer. He knew it now. He saw it all clearly for the first time. His pistol in hand, he pulled the trigger and found the answer.
Kaplar saw the whole incident with Koan. He also saw the shadowy figure passing near. He followed him and decided he would try to find out who, or what, it was. As he approached it, the figure turned and gazed directly into Kaplar's eyes. He couldn't look away or move. That was all that was needed for the figure to feed on Kaplar's life-essence.
Sir Fabulous - The Frankenstein Monster, a guard - Beaten By Villagers & Became Fish Food
Delmain - Seer - Strangled
Matev - Villager - Killed By a Villager
Koan - Vig - Killed Self
Kaplar - Vig - Blood Drained
Day 4 has started.
It ends Thursday, 11 PM EDT.
The Black Hole of Cygnus X-1
Let me know if you didn't get one & should've.
The Black Hole of Cygnus X-1
Kilnaga: 8 (Anialos, Mill, Delmain, SaberOverEasy, blahmcblah, Matev, ObiFett, SLyM, Langly, jdarksun)
SLyM: 6 (Delphinidaes, Zombie Hero, SLyM, Kilnaga, kime, Egos, Megafrost, jdarksun
Kime: 3 (Kilnaga, MrTLicious, Egos, Matev, Typhus733, SLyM)
TheRoadVirus: 2 (Maximus, Cythraul)
ObiFett: 2 (Sir Fabulous, jdarksun, Shiny New Toys)
SaberOverEasy: 2 (TheRoadVirus, ObiFett)
Megafrost: 1 (The Anonymous)
MrTLicious: 1 (SaberOverEasy, warban)
Langly: 1 (Assuran)
Typhus733: 1 (Koan)
Premium: 1 (Gizzy)
Zombie Hero: 1 (premium)
Matev: 1 (Kaplar)
Shiny New Toys: 0 (ObiFett)
Delmain: 0 (SLyM, Typhus733)
Day 2 votes
Kilnaga: 8 (warban, Assuran, Shiny New Toys, Delphinidaes, Sir Fabulous, MrTLicious, kime, jdarksun, Delmain)
Kime: 4 (SaberOverEasy, TheRoadVirus, MrTLicious, Matev, Delmain, jdarksun, ObiFett, Mill, Kilnaga)
Delphinidaes: 4 (The Anonymous, Kilnaga, jdarksun, Mill)
Matev: 2 (Aniolas, Kaplar, jdarksun)
Sir Fabulous: 2 (Zombie Hero, Gizzy)
Mill: 1 (premium)
Day 3 votes
Sir Fabulous: 9 (Koan, Shiny New Toys, Kaplar, premium, kime, Assuran, Mill, ObiFett, warban, )
Kime: 1 Matev)
Matev: 1 (Aniolas)
premium: 1 (MrTLicious)
Mill: 1 (SaberOverEasy)
Warban: 1 (jdarksun)
Assuran: 1 (Delmain)
MrTLicious: 1 (The Anonymous)
Hopefully, someone can make good use of this.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Well yes, but that was kind of already known. I'm more concerned by the other two special kills.
3DS Friend Code: 3110-5393-4113
Steam profile
You forgot to include my vote on Sir Fab.
It was a terrible night, no doubt about it. However, I do see two more vigs died. It seems there are regenerating roles, so maybe we can still pull this out.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
You also forgot Kime in the Sir Fab vote. For the record, we both voted for him right before you did.
3DS Friend Code: 3110-5393-4113
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battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
What is painfully clear:
1. The network has a mole.
2. There are no villagers left in the network to tell us who the mole might be.
I would also like to note that I am a fan of sparkly rainbow unicorns
3DS Friend Code: 3110-5393-4113
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Let's say for now that there are 3 mafia.
Village roles that we know are still out there assuming they all regenerate like the vig:
Mason partner
Roleblocker
Seer
Vig
Vig
We also have the SK.
There is likely a guard still out there, though with a mafia busdriver, maybe stever just thought "fuck it, the guard is useless anyway" and didn't include one. But since there's pretty much always a guard, let's say for now that there is one.
This leaves 3 people, one of which is me. Somehow I've managed to make it through both this phalla and 1984 without getting an ability.
I would be surprised if Dr. Frankenstein were not some kind of entity in this game but there's been no mention of him in narration.
There might be a way to leverage the fact that pretty much the entire village are currently specials, but I have yet to think of it. We could try rolecalling to ensure that vigs don't get voted out so that their kills are useful but I (or someone) will need to play out some scenarios to see if that's a terrible idea.
Roleblocker gets reset, but has no one to tell because Koan hasn't actually called a kill, so they are skeptical. Mafia claim to be a roleblocker to koan. Koan lets them into the network because they are the only roleblocker claim and they know that specials are getting reset.
3DS: 1289-8447-4695
3DS: 1289-8447-4695
Yeah maybe that's a bit silly.
I also just realized that thralls were CD in the OP pre-emptively. Seems more likely than my explanation.
From what I'm seeing, the mafia has one killer (vampire), bus driver (I'll laugh if the name is Igor) and a group kill. The remaining one is either role blocker or action, I'm leaning towards action seer given regenerating roles and a bus driver being present.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Regenerating roles is pretty darn powerful, so that's why the mafia have a busdriver, and my guess on that 6th man is a thrall.
Edit: actually thrall might make good sense here.
So going with that assumption.
1. Mafia Hitman (wolfman)
2. Mafia Hitman (vampire)
3. Vote Manipulator (Bride of Frankenstein's Monster)
4. Guard (Frankenstein's Monster)
5. Bus driver (Igor?)
6. Thrall (Frankenstein?)
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
But yes, that's another possibility. But honestly I think that the mafia would be a bit underpowered if the only abnormal ability they had was a busdriver considering that we have regenerating vigs. Though this is all just speculation.
With 6 kills a night, we have 2 nights to kill 3 mafia and an SK. This means we can only afford 1 miss per night.
I think the vigs have to come forward. Hiding them from the mafia is pointless as they will regenerate, and what we really need is for their kills to go off and hit something bad. This also gives us a better chance of getting a vote target correct and forces the mafia into a dilemma.
The mafia will not also claim to be a vig. Why? Because that screws them over tomorrow night as they have 2 options. 1: kill the vigs and out the remaining vig claimer as mafia. 2: don't kill the vigs and have their called kills announced correctly, outing the remaining vig claimer.
Assuming only 2 come forward, the mason and other specials can then reveal to the vigs, and give them a much better chance of hitting something evil. It's hard to think through whether or not the mafia will be willing to chance on claiming one of the special roles, but I don't think they will:
What is the village's response to a double claim? My response would be to have the vigs aim at the vanillager pool while the seer checks it out, which would be 50-50 evil at that point. If the seer lives, we have a guaranteed mafia member the next day. If the seer dies, then one of the vigs lived, and we're still at a 50-50 shot for either the vote or tomorrow's vig. If the mafia don't claim, then the villager pool is 4/7 evil, which is better odds for them then having all the mafia at a slightly better survival odds but putting one guy out to dry if they can't manage to hit the seer.
Tomorrow, there will be no more vanillagers. That means all mafia and the SK will need to claim a role, and give up 50-50 shots. If we (or the SK) manage to hit 2 today, then we'll have a 50-50 shot at winning tomorrow (since we get 3 kills including vote). If we manage to hit the SK or the vampire today, we might even be able to stretch out another day.
So overall, I think the probability of winning with this strategy is roughly 35% (0% with 0 hits today, 1/8 with 1 hit today, 1/2 with 2 hits today, and for sure with 3 hits today), slightly higher if the seer survives. That is, of course, if you think the number assumptions I've made are reasonable, and I think they are.
If we have actual information from the mason that he can give the vigs, that only increases our chances to have good hits today. If people have some really good vote analysis, that has the same impact, but regardless of how well we do today, I think we need to do this. If we aim blindly, we drastically lower the chances of hits that we desperately need.
Because even if you have to go through players more than once, it can help give you targets. It could help explain their accuracy last night.
3DS Friend Code: 3110-5393-4113
Steam profile
It does not explain how they busdrive the vig onto himself.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
True. That's why I wasn't trying to explain that :P.
Three options with that. Luck with a busdriver, insider info with a busdriver, or they have the ability to directly change someone's target.
3DS Friend Code: 3110-5393-4113
Steam profile
I could see a ghost being able to do that. Just like I could see Frankenstein being a survival neutral and not village aligned.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
CLEAR THE BUILDING!
OooooOOooooOOOOooooooo
I would have thought the Dracula character would have mind control powers, I thought I mentioned this yesterday. I don't know if Stever would OP one mafia character to have both a kill and a bus driver ability though.
The remnants of the network are still around, and with regenerating roles we still stand a chance here, depending on how many of the roles came back.
I'll be talking to the last network members in private to see whose story more closely adds up. I'll post relevant info later. I'm off to work soon but will be checking in and mostly just reading from my phone.
Confusion will be my epitaph
I am going to be grudging someone so hard for this. Even if I brought it on myself.
ooooOOOOOOOOoooooo
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But yeah, what kime said.