Well you were wrong about PCs having priced themselves out of the market a year ago so I guess your prediction that "PC gaming will change to more resemble consoles or the New UrConsole will come before PC gaming 'leads' anywhere" is still wrong.
I'm still interested to see if the new console gen will actually be able to run Unreal 4 without it needing to be neutered in anyway.
If consoles can't run UE4 then it may create an interesting disparity between consoles and PCs. We'll either start seeing more games developed for PC first and their superior specs, or UE4 will be left by the wayside to be used only by those few companies willing to take a risk on developing games at a high fidelity that will only be seen by a small subset of PC gamers.
This generation has already proven that companies would rather develop for consoles first, then port to PC afterwards so I doubt that's going to change simply because the new engine can push out even more shinies. I'm somewhat scared that the new generation will not quite be as new as we would like.
Yes, the engine is scaleable and purportedly the Wii U (scaled down) can run it... but why would companies bother switching to a new engine that will require a new learning curve and uses a different programming language when UE3 is still able to pump out great looking games?
What interests me is what the next-gen consoles could have at launch. It seems Bungie's first entry in the Destiny trilogy will land on Microsoft systems first.
Sony has an important family member, SOE. Imagine Planetside 2 available at launch for the PS4. That is a biggie. Also the possibility of Everquest Next landing on it someday.
What can MS do about it? Kinect can only do so much.
XBL - ArchSilversmith
"We have years of struggle ahead, mostly within ourselves." - Made in USA
What interests me is what the next-gen consoles could have at launch. It seems Bungie's first entry in the Destiny trilogy will land on Microsoft systems first.
Sony has an important family member, SOE. Imagine Planetside 2 available at launch for the PS4. That is a biggie. Also the possibility of Everquest Next landing on it someday.
What can MS do about it? Kinect can only do so much.
Planetside 2 isn't a threat to Microsoft or any other competent shooter. It's basically Battlefield 3 Future with microtransactions to alleviate the drip fed pacing of upgrades.
EverQuest Next could be interesting but the EQ brand just doesn't have the same recognition as it used to. EQ2 was a dismal failure for the most part so the only people with fond memories of EQ are ~30+ at this point. If Sony can convert the average WoW player that started playing MMO's with WoW, then they'll succeed. That said, it's going to be a steep uphill climb for them.
i still don't see a MMO doing well on a console, it'd be cool but so far every one that has made it is either dead or F2P
What's F2P got to do with anything? For any MMO not called WoW, F2P is basically a necessity but that doesn't mean they can't still make money. I mean, Planetside 2 launched as a F2P game, so are you saying it's already not doing well?
And what do you mean by "do well" anyway? Because FFXI came out on the PS2 almost 11 years ago and is still being supported (including releasing the 2013 expansion for it). I somehow doubt that would be happening if they hadn't made money off it. You don't have to rake in billions like WoW to be successful.
Planetside 2 won't be a system seller but I think it'll do fine on PS4.
Anyway, I think the most surprising thing about this year is how much the huge blockbuster sequels disappointed. AC3 was a mess, ME3 fell off the rails, Diablo 3 and Halo 4 were met with pretty mixed reactions and so on. My top five games of the year will feature a brand total of ONE big name franchise.
The WiiU may backfire if it doesn't have proper support (and to be honest I'm starting to think third party is moot; Nintendo needs to make VERY strong cases with its major franchises).
While it's still fresh, I think that despite the criticisms toward the Wii U it's doing just fine. The momentum is gonna go up year on year through 2013, is my updated call. I will give myself points for accuracy on third party support being moot.
Microsoft has a clinch on the NA market with the way Kinect is doing, let alone the marketing behind it. The problem Microsoft faces is all based on what Sony does; if Sony decides to push the 'casual' market with less emphasis on 'gamer'-gamers, and Microsoft pushes emphasis on 3rd party support (namely RPGs) they may start to make a case for the Japanese market. But that's a VERY very specific course of events that won't play out.
I dunno what I was talking about regarding MS + Sony, but as far as the Kinect and MS' general standing, they're holding on just as well as I said. Go them I guess.
Sony has shown me at this point that they don't give a fuck about what people demand. Sony is trying to influence demand and the market and they've been losing. The best thing that happened for them in 2011 was the PR they pulled with their E3 conference. It even convinced me that they were going to turn around, but they aren't. So PS4 prediction? Same shit. xXxHARDCORExXx GAEMZ AND GRAFIX, that sort of shit. Proprietary tech will be used for some asinine feature that could be solved by currently existing (and cheap) tech, while retaining Blu-Ray format. My guess is something related to the HDD for security purposes.
And since we know nothing about the PS4 and things have remained bland with the PS3, all I can say here is I'm doubling down on my prediction.
As for 3DS and Vita, I'll go ahead and predict that Vita is going to perform better than the PSP in the US, and 3DS will perform significantly worse than the DS, but 3DS will still lead the Vita overall.
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HenroidMexican kicked from Immigration ThreadCentrism is Racism :3Registered Userregular
I have to wonder if Square will continue to slide downhill. I really can't imagine much they could announce that would really bring back the mainstream appeal they had back in the FFVII/VIII or even Kingdom Hearts 1/2 days.
I do want to highlight this post from a year ago because Square continues to be in an odd place. People hold them in probably less regard than ever, but the company still seems to be operating in full swing. I do no understand it whatsoever. The circus surrounding Franchise Fatigue 14 is probably my favorite thing though.
I'm pretty sure Konami is going to show us two things at E3 2012 (their only time to really do anything): Lords of Shadow 2, and another compliation / HD remake or whatever. I dunno what they'd do for the latter, probably slap already-made Castlevania games together. We're not going to get another Metroidvania, let alone any handheld Castlevanias, and I'm just going to hate the fuck out of them.
Capcom is going to more Mega Man for iOS, in some way. And it'll be the only way we get anything Mega Man from them. And they will be hated.
... I'm a negative nancy.
Two things about this post.
1) I guess I was half-right about Konami? I didn't pay attention to them much. >.>
2) I was unfortunately sorta right about Capcom; we didn't get shit from them regarding Mega Man.
Edit - And RainbowDespair gets a ton of credit for pointing out that the next XBox will be mostly general-media centered. Or at least, it falls perfectly in step with that rumor we go about how at least one skew of the next XBox will be video-game-less.
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Dhalphirdon't you open that trapdooryou're a fool if you dareRegistered Userregular
Lost a post but we are forgetting that new challengers are entering the market.Apple has a TV with web and docking enabled. This could doom Nintendo in a one two punch as mobile gaming is the most open and Free frontier and at this point 3rd parties seem to permenantly be scarred by nintendo andeven Iwata (the diplomatic one) can't shut up about iOS not being for them.
Didn't happen, over the past year Nintendoom hasn't gone away but 3DS mockery is low. Its not one big bases loaded homerun so much as a number of solid hits and no loud losses. Also the Vita failed so much worse.
The issue is that iOS coming home or something else changing the market so it takes down Nintendo is often seen as some of gaming journalism big chickens coming home to roost matter. just punishment as the casuals flee us and sony and MS continue or renew core experiences.
The change is still happening and we've got the all in one console promised but it isn't ... here. And even if it was with the performance of FEZ and other games that are damned DAMNED good but not quite all redefining. Its like we've hit a plateau or a happy medium between iOS/casual and other titles. They are cooperating or competing in the same franchise but not destroying each other. Yet.
Especially as apple life expands its side entertainment to casual expectations andreasonable core/indie/original expectations
Seriously I thought Apple TV/life would totally steamroll. Its still a thing and not going away but its not unique or splashy enough. Also it seems people are starting to be, just a little, disenchanted with the Apple life treadmill. Windows is getting a lot of flack but it is selling. Seems its own competitors are limiting their progress and while I expect video games as lifestyle to shrink with the aging of the video game generation and its expansion...yeah
Maybe if Nintendo makes an app that makes you able to use your pads and such with the WiiU. Thus becoming more universally friendly. Maybe.
But with j-gaming driven by handhelds any NA Nintendo elmination will, unless the Vita's half assed I'm a phone you can justify my expense really imitation works...We may live to regret our Rorschach moment.
I smiled, remembering this prediction with the announcement of MS Glass. So I called it, but like a later post intimated likely to be an MS move than a Nintendo one.
For the OP
this is mainly motivated by the mobile gaming invasion creating a strong belief the handheld market pie has be carved up good by Rovio and them.
It seems Facebook, Zynga, even Rovio, stopped being too good to ever do wrong. the Bubble burst, at least for the leaders. Well not "burst" so much as sprung a leak so now thing are reaching a different equilibrium. I called this one badly.
Which made me think of the next generation of home consoles. How do we expect them to do? Will the past repeat itself? Heck, which past?
Honestly I expect the nextbox to rebrand itself in an effort to compete with "Apple Life" though will include the Kinect and other media entertainment features and ditch its slight immature college image if only to follow and support its original consumer base many of whom will have spouses or be part of households and need to justify the higher expense. This will replicate the PS2 craze more than anything, unless the WiiU is surprise hit but with the hardcore especially smarting from their treatment in Generation Wii and 3rd parties STILL not giving good support, and the indie market being snubbed (well iOS where alot of the fun innovation is, there or Steam) expect a stumble and somekind of honest capitulation, not just a price drop, some sort of shaming before the Western market. Especially to deal with the growing issues of japan-backlash and estrangement. I mean, seriously the DS is being floated to the masses by "worst parts of a MMORPGer" Monster Hunter and a dating sim that creates virtual Mii babies of you and your virtual perfect girl. Those kind of differences go beyond just openmindedness vs. closedmindedness and straight to just cultural divides and hungers
Having ZombiU but several ugly ass ports and the jury's still out on the pad as whole but there are things to like and things to hate. TVii was something I didn't call and the Miiverse as well. Actually it isn't Miiverse its the continual effort to improve but in a family friendly direction just as this is, collectively and commonly, becoming a major concern and priority for gamers as to preserving man cave and your youth.
I expect the 3DS, minus some tremendous fuck up, is secure, between having the two MONEY franchises for Japan it won't vanish
Called IT! People were figuring at this time the 3DS was fail. But its still going, even with the delays and so on pretty strong and growing.
but it may become a Japanese machine while PSV, just by multifunction and fitting mroe the western ideal is luxury NA item. But handhelds need a comprehensive strategy for the new iOS market.
Okay this not so much. I just didn't think Sony's product would go over this badly. Seems the PSP appeal was that it was a portable multimedia device before smartphones and now.. well you can get one cheaper. Plus memory cards. Plus price. Plus they set themselves up for alot.
Nintendo has spat on those folks faces already.
They've done something. Seems the indie/iOS isn't buddy buddy but they don't blantantly ignore them at the party and are willing to do some business with him.
I can't give numbers but it really does hang on who will BUY the WiiU not just who its sold to. Every gaming guru and most online gossip is sold on this fantasy of the revenge of the hardcore against Nintendo. That Nintendo must renew our succor or something. It doesn't help that unless they can make the Wii U
nonproprietary or run multiple tablets they'll have dumbed down version of what Apple plans to offer mid 2012 and MS and Sony are preparing to offer or can offer in response to the market.
The main issue seems confusion and while this isn't breakout runaway psychotic success. There are key bits. There are failures. but nothing damning though they've lost their spotlessness over the years. Also people are more...free to call them on their policies and products.
If movies aren't going discless don't expect consoles to, though expect, until a severe backlash, more and more cheap DLC nickle and diming.
Don't attribute psychic powers to calling this one.
Now eventually people will be okay with streaming but that will mean actual ownership by the consumer and accountability of the 'service provider" (right now this stance exists only to dictate increasing terms of control and demands of the consumder) of their not in their house held items.
Despite this NOT being the case with ME3 I think this will be the big legacy of the ending debacle. A sort of awareness of consumership and provider and just who is suppose to provide what and what quality and for what reasons. Also, maybe its me, but a general sense of disenchantment with DLC really simmered this year.
I suspect PC/Amazon/Steam will be more leading the way there, not the "big 3."
Again... not psychic
I suspect the hardcore market will stop being catered to as stringently. That more or less came about due to the unique adolescent/aging of gamers and the content of the industry along with a response to the more general audience aesthetics of the Wii. As the General audience aesthetic is now adopted, in distinct flavors, by all of them hardcore services and products will be there but expect overall an image of household electronic entertainment device NOT radically hardcore toy. Gamers are just too old or even if young of the temperment to see that's a little reaching by now.
Oksy, maybe a little psychic. Note this was before I heard the term about set top boxes.
Mind you driving will always be marketing to adolescents, driving games are about fulfilling adolescent frustrations (I want a sweet ass ride like I saw on TV/movies/whatever) but we're distinctly realizing gamers are hobbyist enthusers with lives, careers, and families. As prices go up marketing and emphasizing the family or integrate life benefits and how our device fits into them will be more of thing.
I am the Oracle of Delphi, my words are as those of the Fates which not even the gods may deny.
WiiU should allow itself to be more... upgradeable, able to do something so you can later add more and more tablets and features. I suspect though that will be more the design philosophy for the Nextbox. MS was succesful in getting use to accept multiple SKUs at once on consoles with widely different performance depending on your personal investment and capacity. Expect them to capitalize on that good will. There will be a cheap "Roku" like alternative whare you upgrade the box but keep, your Kinect and other peripherals to be upgraded apiece later. A frugal alternative but the standard will have Kinect+ decent harddrive.
Okay maybe not the fates exact words I just listen in on the planning session.
I guessed Ouya, MS Glass, and other stuff but not attributed right or clearly.
BC will be a phase out depending on convenience. If you can resell on downloads and software BC isn't worth it than make Hardware BC a special feature much as it became on the PS3. That will be the Premium Nextbox
I think the current rumor/attitude is that BC is not really a concern/priority for the super HDnxtgen.
I'd like to imagine a less grabby Xbox Live (pay more for the HSI you're already paying for!) but why would they kill the goose that lays their golden eggs? Especially if they can translate that into SECURING the internet and such for the user most of all. This is where MS will be ahead on the streaming and other stuff Western Market and US style. Japan will likely have some other not!steam way the US will resent the mere existence of and Japan will, as typical, presume standard or not factor as an issue in other markets unless they make their own new infrastructure.
this happened with a different online service and its still in the air. But I'll go a wrong here though was onto something.
The PSN will be shifting more of its free features to premium service, it will start with a security subscription but just you wait.
Uhm. Wrong the PSN just managed to increase customer satisfaction with deals to current consumers and Vita users and so on. They don't seemed to have misered essential services behind a paywall... aside from memory sticks.
The WiiU just might be able to get away with midlife tech-upgrading, WE scoff at the name but the Wii is a reliable name in gaming, fun, and decent if simple hardware they phased out BC without a fuss and we've taken TWO remote revisions and other peripherals with gripiing but we've taken them. As it was feature of this generation (and without doom and gloom as well) and we know they're going to put out a 3DS revision proper (circle pad's necessity to rebrand the hardware as viable in its own primary market) expect Nintendo to be acting more disturbingly like the competition, of at least this generation than.. well themselves.
The WiiU confusion seems to have persisted, especially with the basic and deluxe models. It is partially upgradeable (external HDs that are critical for the actual data and games and shit).
Wrong about the 3DS. We got a revision but in the XL model which totally blindsided me. Still no built in second analog. But overall improved by inches features. Expect more revisions in the future.
The main problem is Sony is experiencing issues all around. I think 3D would be slow grow seeding thing. Especially as 3D goes from godline, to gimmick, to merely an encumbent but not necessarily uniquely critical feature overall. Think of it like the old sound systems with pre-HDTVs. Some folks at the super duper surround sound setups, others were basic but all prefered certain inputs and sizes and dimensions and features, at least stripped to standard.
Sony seems to be drowning less as a whole. Then again I've been more distracted with THQ and other game studios closing.
Three overall for the 3DS, the 3DS lite (with dual analog) the 3DS 2.0 (Dual analog and better batterylife fixing the finickness of three d, maybe optional, not critical specs that are cheap over covers for those with glasses and varying vision issues, as the elderly are a big DS/Nintendo demographic I hope they are on this or partner or aid who gets on this, the sooner they combat the 3DS is neuralyzer in hiding the better)
The final revision, is dream version that is somewhere between pad and handheld and maybe add a phone or at least two way or Skype into there.
Idjit, I can't believe I was him.
PSV there will just be refinements of now. mergers of game phones, 4-5g upgrades. And at least one "all DLC/digital" one that, if they are smart, will hook into ANYTHING to handle DLs and backups.
I honestly didn't think the PSV would fail this hard! There was none of the technical misgivings or kiddie image or abandonment but hurt. But mainly.. people just weren't buying and still blame a poor library, which it does have poor examples, but seriously. At the least I didn't expect it to go on this long or the failures to be this... well public.
The iphone/android market is utterly beyond me, but we're headed for that big system maker and heartbreaker super app that will destory the gaming community. Pokemon, Capcom, Squeenix, and lord knows how many indies with great variations but not enough presence in the established market are already producing iOS material. Lets say Inafune's pirate penguin game becomes a hit and people adopt it in droves as a backlash against the abandonment by Capcom and the 3DS or just its sheer availability. Bang. devoured market. At this point Iwata needs to be rotated out and Reggie becomes the new more international face of Nintendo (well that of the Rainfall goodwill annointed NoE executive, who's name I don't know) and they can quickly me too and catch up with the eshop. In mainstream terms it will be too little too late and the Western handheld market dries up for Nintendo save for the elite douche symbol that will be the PSV.
Yep. Wrong here. Mobile gaming is more a logarithmic than exponential thing. No that is the wrong thing. Well the growth HAS staggerred and the consumption not as violent. And Eshop even later the month I wrote that managed to produce some excellent turn arounds. ITs not the Summer of Live good but Mighty Switchfore, Pushmo, Rolling Western and... its a long list just even before June had made an excellent impression. And the Digital sales and the adoption of DLC is even redeeming the stagnation accusations of August with NSMB2.
Nintendo is still needing to imporve their online presence and operations but they are doing so and not at a point they are dissatisfying customers and at the least are appealing to non devotees.
We've seen the WiiU controller guys. Its only "surprise" might be its ability to support two of them though it will incure three at a time Gamecube lag. Using it will be critcal. A multi-touch or stronger pad MAYBE ,insanely, universal pad applicability will develop on the thing if Nintendo sees the rough patch ahead and decides to divert the general electronics market as to have Iwata be slattered in butterscotch and coolwhip and do the rump hump to the camera to satify mainstream gamer's sadistic urges only to rejct it as too gay or missed it and they didn't stream to my PSVita or some contrarian reason. Making the WiiU a unique but not Nintendo exclusive piece with purchase of a nintendo application or something might be the only crazy swerve they need.
Of course expect MS to steal that idea first but from Apple who'll have implemented it with their TV and their their Any Games that Let Us box.
More foreseeing of MS Glass but more screwing up the fear of apple. Turns out they had a pro-controller which was a copy of the Xbox up their sleeve. This does mitigate the excuses but I'd seen no one compliment or claim happiness with the damned thing.
If Apple really wants to undermine not just outsell with a more powerful market they'll put out the pandorica. Put damned near ANYTHING you want into the damned thing system wise, just hook them up and you get them to work together. They can sell it on unifying complex peripherals, starting with Blue-Rays, Satellite/Cable, box, and other shit. A super next gen Roku.
Okay this was insane moon logic when I was writing it. But I was sure uni-console was going to come and the closest we got was the Ouya, still in development. Admittedly this seems to be the "idea" they are selling with Win8 and other electronic devices. Nintendo may carve a niche this generation as its all cults now and there's has the more manageable entry fees.
Expect, though, due to ports, for the Classic Controller Pro to be sold out when the points come a calling.
Okay I did call a pro controller and capitulation to 3rd parties with it, not an appeal.
- Who's going to gain exclusives, who's going to lose exclusives, and how will this drive or hurt hardware sales?
Until the next hardware no one. expect plenty of temptation to jump ship ESPECIALYL in the handheld market. Many Western handhled and indies won't even get on. They like their own freedom and born, many times, out of modders they'll feel animosity to Nintendo's policies and arbitrary requirements. PSV will be an incidental support thing because of the PSN.
Missed Bayonetta 2 and a few others.
Mainly though I expect First party and 2nd party to stay where they are. Ubisoft, being the rare 3rd party game intown might experience some particular gushing on the WiiU so B&GE2 or 1.5 may show up there as well as new IP as well. At least primarily if it shows promise and success it won't exclude just involve and hopefully make decent use of the tablet and motion controls.
*arm pump* ZombiU!!!! Ahem, basically while this hasn't been a breaching of mainstream success a core audience doesn't have to fear quite so much. Not the least Nintendo can now use modern industry tools to redeem mistakes. I wouldn't be surprised if some patches come about to at least help with the horrific slowdowns and errors for Arkham City and other problem ports. and at the least they will be less of problem from now on. And they have a number of juicy titles that if not killer app will be cover fire app that will keep them going and going strong and well. The sharing of the TV or not even needing it will also make others involved as to other wider functions.
- How will consoles be affected by the rise in popularity for portable devices? How will handhelds be affected by the rise in popularity for smartphones?
I think I touched this already but really this is smartphone's game to call at this point. Unless they descend into clusterfuckedupness the mere advantage of the tech seems poised to bury the old handheld market. It can reasonably play both games at once and it only going to bridge, experiment, and expand more.
Who knew the "clusterfuckedupness" would pan out? And it wasn't even that bad. Just more a easing off of them and a raising up of handhelds. Though Vita is suffering for not getting leaner. - Who is doomed and/or going third party?
Everyone, this is the last or second to lasst generation. Nintendo might get their first, failure means something other than "lets pull back on the games division for a bit and make them part of a multimedia program, if can't reopen just redistribute the assets" that Sony can do.
MS can do it and make it look like that was the plan all along. But while Nintendo is the most directly active against the Apple Life future, they have by far the least capacity to win this. Unless the Skylanders, eCCG thing REALLY takes off then it will recreate a niche but that's going to be among the young who may, for once, be bitten off at the lead to just inherit mom and dad's old kindle/smartphone and the apps for that than get sucked into another collect-athon that's not purely electronic or purely "think you have anyways"
Yep. Screwed up here, majorly
What do you think?
The WiiU's biggest problem is that its offering the equivalent of hot wheels in the market of transformers...no how about this. Pads are very powerful, mobile PERSONAL devices. The ideas of them as fixed attachments to specific area with no other features or independent operation and even limited use in the house is what will kill it. The Tech and what we expect is too established and familiar and Nintendo's entrance too much like making etkch sketches to art classes.
It seems the variance with the pad market has made it so, while the WiiU is met with confusion not much derision outside of failures to perform and apprehensions that it can, its not thought that much less of. People want more, certainly, but I think they are not unable to accept an "economic" tablet in their household.
HenroidMexican kicked from Immigration ThreadCentrism is Racism :3Registered Userregular
I wanted to mark this somewhere it could looked up in a year because this is an actual thing I believe. It's regarding NCSoft.
I'm predicting that, in the wake of their decision to accept refunds for Guild Wars 2, that - should Square's Final Fantasy 14 prove to hold some success despite being subscription based still - NCSoft is going to convert Guild Wars 2 into a subscription based game. Earlier this month I started to have this nagging feeling that within a half year NCSoft would do something bombastic to ArenaNet and/or Guild Wars 2, and I want to narrow it down. Yes, it's crazy and backwards. But my defense is, "NCSoft."
WiiU: Will not be nearly as popular as the Wii. The non-gamer audience they captured in the last 5 years is not gonna buy a new console for Wii Bowling 2.0 - now with interactive scoreboard.
Nintendo will fail to create a compelling online experience or any way to decouple digital purchases from the hardware they were made on, further alienating the core gamer base. No one will care about the promised glut of 360 ports (if they even happen.)
Vita: I guess this is something that exists
called it
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HenroidMexican kicked from Immigration ThreadCentrism is Racism :3Registered Userregular
WiiU: Will not be nearly as popular as the Wii. The non-gamer audience they captured in the last 5 years is not gonna buy a new console for Wii Bowling 2.0 - now with interactive scoreboard.
Nintendo will fail to create a compelling online experience or any way to decouple digital purchases from the hardware they were made on, further alienating the core gamer base. No one will care about the promised glut of 360 ports (if they even happen.)
Vita: I guess this is something that exists
called it
I disagree. But business performance is something that's always in the eye of the beholder I suppose. Somewhere out there someone is saying the Vita is kicking ass and taking names via its sales figures.
WiiU: Will not be nearly as popular as the Wii. The non-gamer audience they captured in the last 5 years is not gonna buy a new console for Wii Bowling 2.0 - now with interactive scoreboard.
Nintendo will fail to create a compelling online experience or any way to decouple digital purchases from the hardware they were made on, further alienating the core gamer base. No one will care about the promised glut of 360 ports (if they even happen.)
Vita: I guess this is something that exists
called it
Isn't it a bit too soon to be saying that the Wii U isn't as popular as the Wii? It hasn't even hit 60 days yet.
Ohhhh man, I forgot about this thread! Okay let me dig up my posts.
Yeah me too, I'm glad it was bumped. I've thought about it a couple times and then forget again.
The trouble is that a lot of next gen predictions aren't even useful yet. I think a lot of people expected we'd get some hint of something last E3 or even during the year, but no, not really. So predictions about new systems having BC or tablet controllers are still just sitting there.
As for 3DS and Vita, I'll go ahead and predict that Vita is going to perform better than the PSP in the US, and 3DS will perform significantly worse than the DS, but 3DS will still lead the Vita overall.
8->
Vita was new at the time and people were calling doom, so to some extent I was like "come on guys really." To which the world said "yeah really" over the course of the year. Everyone expected more from E3 than we got. Frankly, last E3 and the system's performance so far is making me expect a repeat of last year's E3 for Vita. If they're gearing up for a new console they're not going to have time to do anything with it, either on the show floor or high-profile-studio game development.
I still think the 3DS will perform worse than the DS, even though it's still pretty neck and neck. I know "worse" is broad. I don't think it will be massively, disastrously worse or anything.
they need to do more than take steps, they're already miles behind. afaic, on day one I should be able to hook up my wiiu, log into my Nintendo account and start downloading all the content I own on my wii. anything less is a joke.
I'm pretty sure the Wii -> Wii U transfer was day one. No account was involved, and I don't think many people expected a completely segregated Wii mode that can't play VC games on the pad, but the transfer was there, so is it a joke or not?
As far as whether purchases are coupled to hardware or not, I don't see it as further alienating the hardcores or anything. Some people don't like it, but if Wii U is not performing up to expectations, it's not because people really want to go to a friend's house and log in and download the New Super Mario Bros U they bought at home. That's a fringe thing. If it's not performing well, it's because nobody wants any games for it...and I don't think we can call it just yet except perhaps in Europe where I think I read it is bombing pretty hard.
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If consoles can't run UE4 then it may create an interesting disparity between consoles and PCs. We'll either start seeing more games developed for PC first and their superior specs, or UE4 will be left by the wayside to be used only by those few companies willing to take a risk on developing games at a high fidelity that will only be seen by a small subset of PC gamers.
This generation has already proven that companies would rather develop for consoles first, then port to PC afterwards so I doubt that's going to change simply because the new engine can push out even more shinies. I'm somewhat scared that the new generation will not quite be as new as we would like.
Yes, the engine is scaleable and purportedly the Wii U (scaled down) can run it... but why would companies bother switching to a new engine that will require a new learning curve and uses a different programming language when UE3 is still able to pump out great looking games?
Sony has an important family member, SOE. Imagine Planetside 2 available at launch for the PS4. That is a biggie. Also the possibility of Everquest Next landing on it someday.
What can MS do about it? Kinect can only do so much.
"We have years of struggle ahead, mostly within ourselves." - Made in USA
Planetside 2 isn't a threat to Microsoft or any other competent shooter. It's basically Battlefield 3 Future with microtransactions to alleviate the drip fed pacing of upgrades.
EverQuest Next could be interesting but the EQ brand just doesn't have the same recognition as it used to. EQ2 was a dismal failure for the most part so the only people with fond memories of EQ are ~30+ at this point. If Sony can convert the average WoW player that started playing MMO's with WoW, then they'll succeed. That said, it's going to be a steep uphill climb for them.
"We have years of struggle ahead, mostly within ourselves." - Made in USA
And what do you mean by "do well" anyway? Because FFXI came out on the PS2 almost 11 years ago and is still being supported (including releasing the 2013 expansion for it). I somehow doubt that would be happening if they hadn't made money off it. You don't have to rake in billions like WoW to be successful.
Planetside 2 won't be a system seller but I think it'll do fine on PS4.
Anyway, I think the most surprising thing about this year is how much the huge blockbuster sequels disappointed. AC3 was a mess, ME3 fell off the rails, Diablo 3 and Halo 4 were met with pretty mixed reactions and so on. My top five games of the year will feature a brand total of ONE big name franchise.
While it's still fresh, I think that despite the criticisms toward the Wii U it's doing just fine. The momentum is gonna go up year on year through 2013, is my updated call. I will give myself points for accuracy on third party support being moot.
I dunno what I was talking about regarding MS + Sony, but as far as the Kinect and MS' general standing, they're holding on just as well as I said. Go them I guess.
And since we know nothing about the PS4 and things have remained bland with the PS3, all I can say here is I'm doubling down on my prediction.
Now to pick on some other people. <_<
8->
I do want to highlight this post from a year ago because Square continues to be in an odd place. People hold them in probably less regard than ever, but the company still seems to be operating in full swing. I do no understand it whatsoever. The circus surrounding Franchise Fatigue 14 is probably my favorite thing though.
Two things about this post.
1) I guess I was half-right about Konami? I didn't pay attention to them much. >.>
2) I was unfortunately sorta right about Capcom; we didn't get shit from them regarding Mega Man.
Edit - And RainbowDespair gets a ton of credit for pointing out that the next XBox will be mostly general-media centered. Or at least, it falls perfectly in step with that rumor we go about how at least one skew of the next XBox will be video-game-less.
wat
Didn't happen, over the past year Nintendoom hasn't gone away but 3DS mockery is low. Its not one big bases loaded homerun so much as a number of solid hits and no loud losses. Also the Vita failed so much worse.
The change is still happening and we've got the all in one console promised but it isn't ... here. And even if it was with the performance of FEZ and other games that are damned DAMNED good but not quite all redefining. Its like we've hit a plateau or a happy medium between iOS/casual and other titles. They are cooperating or competing in the same franchise but not destroying each other. Yet.
Seriously I thought Apple TV/life would totally steamroll. Its still a thing and not going away but its not unique or splashy enough. Also it seems people are starting to be, just a little, disenchanted with the Apple life treadmill. Windows is getting a lot of flack but it is selling. Seems its own competitors are limiting their progress and while I expect video games as lifestyle to shrink with the aging of the video game generation and its expansion...yeah I smiled, remembering this prediction with the announcement of MS Glass. So I called it, but like a later post intimated likely to be an MS move than a Nintendo one.
It seems Facebook, Zynga, even Rovio, stopped being too good to ever do wrong. the Bubble burst, at least for the leaders. Well not "burst" so much as sprung a leak so now thing are reaching a different equilibrium. I called this one badly.
Having ZombiU but several ugly ass ports and the jury's still out on the pad as whole but there are things to like and things to hate. TVii was something I didn't call and the Miiverse as well. Actually it isn't Miiverse its the continual effort to improve but in a family friendly direction just as this is, collectively and commonly, becoming a major concern and priority for gamers as to preserving man cave and your youth.
Called IT! People were figuring at this time the 3DS was fail. But its still going, even with the delays and so on pretty strong and growing.
Okay this not so much. I just didn't think Sony's product would go over this badly. Seems the PSP appeal was that it was a portable multimedia device before smartphones and now.. well you can get one cheaper. Plus memory cards. Plus price. Plus they set themselves up for alot.
They've done something. Seems the indie/iOS isn't buddy buddy but they don't blantantly ignore them at the party and are willing to do some business with him.
The main issue seems confusion and while this isn't breakout runaway psychotic success. There are key bits. There are failures. but nothing damning though they've lost their spotlessness over the years. Also people are more...free to call them on their policies and products.
Don't attribute psychic powers to calling this one.
Despite this NOT being the case with ME3 I think this will be the big legacy of the ending debacle. A sort of awareness of consumership and provider and just who is suppose to provide what and what quality and for what reasons. Also, maybe its me, but a general sense of disenchantment with DLC really simmered this year.
Again... not psychic
Oksy, maybe a little psychic. Note this was before I heard the term about set top boxes.
I am the Oracle of Delphi, my words are as those of the Fates which not even the gods may deny.
Okay maybe not the fates exact words I just listen in on the planning session.
I guessed Ouya, MS Glass, and other stuff but not attributed right or clearly. I think the current rumor/attitude is that BC is not really a concern/priority for the super HDnxtgen.
this happened with a different online service and its still in the air. But I'll go a wrong here though was onto something.
Uhm. Wrong the PSN just managed to increase customer satisfaction with deals to current consumers and Vita users and so on. They don't seemed to have misered essential services behind a paywall... aside from memory sticks. The WiiU confusion seems to have persisted, especially with the basic and deluxe models. It is partially upgradeable (external HDs that are critical for the actual data and games and shit).
Wrong about the 3DS. We got a revision but in the XL model which totally blindsided me. Still no built in second analog. But overall improved by inches features. Expect more revisions in the future.
Sony seems to be drowning less as a whole. Then again I've been more distracted with THQ and other game studios closing.
Idjit, I can't believe I was him.
I honestly didn't think the PSV would fail this hard! There was none of the technical misgivings or kiddie image or abandonment but hurt. But mainly.. people just weren't buying and still blame a poor library, which it does have poor examples, but seriously. At the least I didn't expect it to go on this long or the failures to be this... well public.
Yep. Wrong here. Mobile gaming is more a logarithmic than exponential thing. No that is the wrong thing. Well the growth HAS staggerred and the consumption not as violent. And Eshop even later the month I wrote that managed to produce some excellent turn arounds. ITs not the Summer of Live good but Mighty Switchfore, Pushmo, Rolling Western and... its a long list just even before June had made an excellent impression. And the Digital sales and the adoption of DLC is even redeeming the stagnation accusations of August with NSMB2.
Nintendo is still needing to imporve their online presence and operations but they are doing so and not at a point they are dissatisfying customers and at the least are appealing to non devotees.
More foreseeing of MS Glass but more screwing up the fear of apple. Turns out they had a pro-controller which was a copy of the Xbox up their sleeve. This does mitigate the excuses but I'd seen no one compliment or claim happiness with the damned thing.
Okay this was insane moon logic when I was writing it. But I was sure uni-console was going to come and the closest we got was the Ouya, still in development. Admittedly this seems to be the "idea" they are selling with Win8 and other electronic devices. Nintendo may carve a niche this generation as its all cults now and there's has the more manageable entry fees.
Okay I did call a pro controller and capitulation to 3rd parties with it, not an appeal.
- Who's going to gain exclusives, who's going to lose exclusives, and how will this drive or hurt hardware sales?
Missed Bayonetta 2 and a few others.
*arm pump* ZombiU!!!! Ahem, basically while this hasn't been a breaching of mainstream success a core audience doesn't have to fear quite so much. Not the least Nintendo can now use modern industry tools to redeem mistakes. I wouldn't be surprised if some patches come about to at least help with the horrific slowdowns and errors for Arkham City and other problem ports. and at the least they will be less of problem from now on. And they have a number of juicy titles that if not killer app will be cover fire app that will keep them going and going strong and well. The sharing of the TV or not even needing it will also make others involved as to other wider functions.
- How will consoles be affected by the rise in popularity for portable devices? How will handhelds be affected by the rise in popularity for smartphones?
Who knew the "clusterfuckedupness" would pan out? And it wasn't even that bad. Just more a easing off of them and a raising up of handhelds. Though Vita is suffering for not getting leaner.
- Who is doomed and/or going third party?
Yep. Screwed up here, majorly
It seems the variance with the pad market has made it so, while the WiiU is met with confusion not much derision outside of failures to perform and apprehensions that it can, its not thought that much less of. People want more, certainly, but I think they are not unable to accept an "economic" tablet in their household.
I'm predicting that, in the wake of their decision to accept refunds for Guild Wars 2, that - should Square's Final Fantasy 14 prove to hold some success despite being subscription based still - NCSoft is going to convert Guild Wars 2 into a subscription based game. Earlier this month I started to have this nagging feeling that within a half year NCSoft would do something bombastic to ArenaNet and/or Guild Wars 2, and I want to narrow it down. Yes, it's crazy and backwards. But my defense is, "NCSoft."
called it
I disagree. But business performance is something that's always in the eye of the beholder I suppose. Somewhere out there someone is saying the Vita is kicking ass and taking names via its sales figures.
Isn't it a bit too soon to be saying that the Wii U isn't as popular as the Wii? It hasn't even hit 60 days yet.
Switch: 6200-8149-0919 / Wii U: maximumzero / 3DS: 0860-3352-3335 / eBay Shop
The trouble is that a lot of next gen predictions aren't even useful yet. I think a lot of people expected we'd get some hint of something last E3 or even during the year, but no, not really. So predictions about new systems having BC or tablet controllers are still just sitting there.
Vita was new at the time and people were calling doom, so to some extent I was like "come on guys really." To which the world said "yeah really" over the course of the year. Everyone expected more from E3 than we got. Frankly, last E3 and the system's performance so far is making me expect a repeat of last year's E3 for Vita. If they're gearing up for a new console they're not going to have time to do anything with it, either on the show floor or high-profile-studio game development.
I still think the 3DS will perform worse than the DS, even though it's still pretty neck and neck. I know "worse" is broad. I don't think it will be massively, disastrously worse or anything.
I'm pretty sure the Wii -> Wii U transfer was day one. No account was involved, and I don't think many people expected a completely segregated Wii mode that can't play VC games on the pad, but the transfer was there, so is it a joke or not?
As far as whether purchases are coupled to hardware or not, I don't see it as further alienating the hardcores or anything. Some people don't like it, but if Wii U is not performing up to expectations, it's not because people really want to go to a friend's house and log in and download the New Super Mario Bros U they bought at home. That's a fringe thing. If it's not performing well, it's because nobody wants any games for it...and I don't think we can call it just yet except perhaps in Europe where I think I read it is bombing pretty hard.